Search found 51054 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on SPDR® MSCI USA StrategicFactors℠ ETF (QUS)?
Replies: 11
Views: 742

Re: Thoughts on SPDR® MSCI USA StrategicFactors℠ ETF (QUS)?

It's not very different in composition from VOO (the Vanguard [S&P] 500 Index ETF):

Image

Its performance hasn't been very different from VOO.

Image
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 145
Views: 16085

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

"At some point it has to be a bargain" suddenly reminded me of Lewis' Carroll's riddle? parable? joke? about the two clocks. The first part is the well-known argument that a stopped clock is better than a clock that loses a minute a day, because the stopped clock is right twice a day while the losing clock is only right once in two years. But he carries it on: Ah, but," you say, "what's the use of its being right twice a day, if I ca'n't tell when the time comes?" Why, suppose the clock points to eight o'clock, don't you see that the clock is right at eight o'clock? Consequently, when eight o'clock comes round your clock is right. "Yes, I see that," you reply. Very good, then you've contradicted yourself t...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many credit cards do you have
Replies: 54
Views: 1821

Re: How many credit cards do you have

I have one, with my name and my spouse's on it.

My spouse has one, in my spouse's own name.
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 639
Views: 45111

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

Logan Roy wrote: Mon Mar 25, 2024 4:42 pm Image
If that's your own plot, could you please redo it

a) WITHOUT suppressed zeroes on the axes,

b) WITH the risk free rate and a few lines-of-constant-Sharpe-ratio included?

Without those, we have no way to judge whether or not they are actually doing any better than 70/30, after allowing for risk.

If you can tell me exactly what ten-year period that is, I can do it.

Note that "risk/return" is a meaningless number. We want "risk/excess return above the risk-free rate." If you can get 2% without taking any risk, then the first 2% of return shouldn't "count."

Also, please, what does the size of the circle indicate?
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: LTC + Universal insurance in one product
Replies: 22
Views: 1031

Re: LTC + Universal insurance in one product

BruDude wrote: Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:09 am ...The death benefit should be thought of as a secondary feature...
Then why combine them with life insurance at all? Why not offer them as standalone LTCi with all the good features you claim they have, but without that "secondary" feature?
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: QQQ Question
Replies: 49
Views: 2616

Re: QQQ Question

QQQ in 2000 dropped 81% and it took 14 years 7 months for it to recover to its original peak. That's the other side of the coin. In 2000, everyone thought the internet was the future. They were right, it just didn't immediately translate to the expectation that was baked into the prices. That was a one off event. Well, see, that's the whole thing. That's practically the definition of a "black swan." "Black swans" are events that can't be predicted or averaged or measured because they are too rare, idiosyncratic, and unbelievable. A "black swan" has never happened before. So even after it happens, there is no way to estimate how long until it happens again. And yet collectively they are common. Black swans are ...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do Russian stock holders in the west have any chance of recovery?
Replies: 11
Views: 1747

Re: Do Russian stock holders in the west have any chance of recovery?

This thread makes me wonder what other funds holding Russian assets have done, such as emerging markets funds and total world funds. What has generally been the treatment by these other funds? Is it different from what's happening with ERUS? Interesting question. March 3rd, 2022: Vanguard will not restrict is active managers' decisions on Russia Top mutual fund manager Vanguard Group said on Friday it will adhere to international sanctions being imposed on Russia in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, but will not restrict the investment decisions of managers of its actively-managed funds. In a note on its website on Friday addressing investments in Russia, Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis said that managers of its active...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: LTC + Universal insurance in one product
Replies: 22
Views: 1031

Re: LTC + Universal insurance in one product

These products make no logical sense. These long-term-care riders are not really long-term-care insurance because they do not add new coverage . They simply give you the right to divert existing coverage to a different purpose. They let you raid the death benefit to pay for long-term care. Keep your eye on the ball. That's the death benefit. The purpose of life insurance is to provide a death benefit. Don't let the insurance company distract you with sparkly little side goodies. Well, do you need the death benefit or not? If you don't need it, you don't need life insurance and shouldn't buy it at all. If you do need it, you need it. If someone spends their final years in a long-term-care facility, why would their surviving family will need ...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 145
Views: 16085

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

Source
Three senior Boeing executives including its CEO are stepping down, the company said Monday, as the company continues to deal with an ongoing scandal and federal investigation into the safety of its passenger jets.

CEO Dave Calhoun confirmed he was leaving the company by the end of the year in a statement. Stan Deal, the CEO and president of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, has retired effective immediately. Larry Kellner, chair of the company's board of directors, will not stand for re-election at the next shareholders' annual meeting.
A day may come when Boeing stock becomes a bargain, but it is not this day.
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those complimentary dinners for retirees by investment advisors
Replies: 130
Views: 8767

Re: Those complimentary dinners for retirees by investment advisors

There ain't a horse that cain't be rode and there ain't a rider that cain't be throwed.

A friend of ours said that she made a hobby of going to time-share presentations just for the free dinners. She said "when they come around to talk to me, I just say 'I'm only here for the free dinner' and they leave me alone." Some years later it transpired that she eventually had bought a time-share at one of those dinners, almost never had used it, and was trying, unsuccessfully, to sell it.

Don't do it. Keep doing it and sooner or later you'll encounter the salesperson good enough (or well enough attuned to your psychology) to succeed in selling you something.
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying OTC Stocks With VBS
Replies: 26
Views: 1176

Re: Buying OTC Stocks With VBS

The way I see it, if it's traded on the OTC or even if it is a "penny stock", if an investor does his homework and finds that a company has investment potential, he or she should be allowed to purchase shares in said company. Companies don't serve everyone's needs all of the time. I can't buy rabbit meat at the largest grocery store in NH. Certainly, that's a legitimate food. It's just not one that makes sense for their target audience. I fear my only option is to move my brokerage account to a different service provider but at my age (I'm past 70 now) I'm very reluctant to do that either. I guess I'm just screwed, that's all. That's awfully black and white thinking. You could open a brokerage account at Schwab and move in enough...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying OTC Stocks With VBS
Replies: 26
Views: 1176

Re: Buying OTC Stocks With VBS

1) The change was discussed in the forum in 2022 here . The first paragraph of Vanguard's letter to people affected by it said This change allows us to better support a targeted, enduring suite of products and services rooted in Vanguard's time-tested investment philosophy and built to help secure the long-term success of investors. That's probably all you will be able to find out from them. Vanguard's mission statement is "to take a stand for all investors, to treat them fairly, and to give them the best chance for investment success." That, together with their language in the letter, leads me to infer that they don't think trading in OTC stocks "helps secure the long-term success of investors." Of course, you are free ...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying OTC Stocks With VBS
Replies: 26
Views: 1176

Re: Buying OTC Stocks With VBS

Tim Buckley, Chairman & CEO
The Vanguard Group
100 Vanguard Blvd
Malvern, PA 19355
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate
Replies: 37
Views: 2596

Re: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate

Hah! I like this post I ran across semiaccidentally, while searching for GMO discussions. Jeremy Grantham and James Montier (of GMO) are forecasters worth listening to.... GMO has proven able to tactically allocate according to their views. e.g. GMO Benchmark Free Allocation fund vs. Lifestrategy Moderate: http://i61.tinypic.com/11t7rte.jpg That image succumbed to digital fragility, but the post was made in September 2014 and would have looked like this: https://imgur.com/4hjVefO.png And here's what has happened since then: https://imgur.com/UlnPhi0.png To be fair, since inception overall GMO is still slightly ahead, but I'm going to call it a tie. Certainly in 2014 you could have looked at those charts and said "wow! GMO really does h...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate
Replies: 37
Views: 2596

Re: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate

Vanguard put out a paper at the end of 2023 forecasting that ex-US/Emerging is likely to out-perform US over the next decade due to interest rate headwinds. But does that paper show the range of returns that were found in their simulations? For a number of years, they had a chart and a table showing the actual range found in the simulation. Of late (2024 outlook) they have stopped and and are just showing phony ranges in which they always show mean ±2% for all stock categories and mean ±1% for all bond categories. Let me repeat that again: they are phony. Vanguard has never given any rationale for them. For years they've shown the real ranges in the full report, but the ±2%-for-stocks, ±1%-for-bonds in the summaries. And I think the reason...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 639
Views: 45111

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

So when you have a microscopic tilt, the fund you choose does not meaningfully change your outcome. So why do it at all? My example involved devoting 20% of stocks to small-cap value. That's not a "microscopic tilt." It's higher than the tilts suggested by Paul Merriman in the "Ultimate Buy-and-Hold" portfolio, or the tilts suggested in Larry Swedroe's model portfolios in The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need . I agree that the effects are microscopic. I'll rephrase. What is the point of devoting a relatively small part of your total portfolio to a fund that is highly correlated to the total market? What do the relatively smaller tilts that you reference accomplish? I don't know. I am using th...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 639
Views: 45111

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

Larry Swedroe's portfolio increases bonds but uses 100% SCV for Equities. It's not clear what the composition of the "Larry Portfolio" really was, whether he personally really held it, how long he held it, or what he holds now. In 2011, Ron Lieber of The New York Times wrote an article, Taking a Chance on the Larry Portfolio , which implied that it was simply 32% DFA US Small-Cap Value Portfolio and 68% one-year Treasury bills. But as far as I know Larry Swedroe never said this, and didn't spell it out with tickers and percentages in Reducing the Risk of Black Swans . The NYT article appeared in 2011, and as early as 2016 Larry Swedroe had added an allocation in equal parts, QSPRX, LENDX, AVRPX, and SRRIX (AQR Style Premium Alter...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10% cash position excessive?
Replies: 27
Views: 2630

Re: 10% cash position excessive?

SNAXX = Money Market Funds - Schwab Money Fund VTI = Vanguard Total Stock Market (stock fund) XLK = Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (stock fund) QQQM = Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (stock fund) SCHG = Schwab US Large-Cap Growth ETF If that is your whole portfolio, it is 90% stocks, 10% low-risk. Traditionally the low-risk holding would be bonds, but cashlike holdings could perform the same function (but with lower return). Only you know what your risk tolerance really is, but at 62 - 15 = 47 of age, 90% stocks is considered "aggressive." If cash is your only low-risk asset, then anything less than 10% would put you higher than the most aggressive target-date funds. https://www.bogleheads.org/w/images/e/ee/Morningstarglidepaths.png &q...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10% cash position excessive?
Replies: 27
Views: 2630

Re: 10% cash position excessive?

SNAXX = Money Market Funds - Schwab Money Fund VTI = Vanguard Total Stock Market (stock fund) XLK = Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (stock fund) QQQM = Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (stock fund) SCHG = Schwab US Large-Cap Growth ETF If that is your whole portfolio, it is 90% stocks, 10% low-risk. Traditionally the low-risk holding would be bonds, but cashlike holdings could perform the same function (but with lower return). Only you know what your risk tolerance really is, but at 62 - 15 = 47 of age, 90% stocks is considered "aggressive." If cash is your only low-risk asset, then anything less than 10% would put you higher than the most aggressive target-date funds. https://www.bogleheads.org/w/images/e/ee/Morningstarglidepaths.png &q...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do Russian stock holders in the west have any chance of recovery?
Replies: 11
Views: 1747

Re: Do Russian stock holders in the west have any chance of recovery?

It seems to me that it doesn't matter whether Russian stockholders in the west have any chance of recovery. The question is whether ERUS 's shareholders have a chance of recovery. I don't see wiggle room in their statement: As previously announced, the iShares MSCI Russia ETF is in the process of liquidation. An initial liquidation distribution was sent to shareholders on Aug 17, 2022 and a subsequent liquidation distribution was sent to shareholders on December 27, 2023. On December 14, 2023, the Board of Directors of iShares, Inc. unanimously voted to continue to have ERUS managed pursuant to the plan of liquidation through December 31, 2024 (absent significant market developments). BlackRock Fund Advisors (BFA) has implemented a waiver o...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 639
Views: 45111

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

folkher0 wrote: Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:21 pm So when you have a microscopic tilt, the fund you choose does not meaningfully change your outcome. So why do it at all?
My example involved devoting 20% of stocks to small-cap value. That's not a "microscopic tilt." It's higher than the tilts suggested by Paul Merriman in the "Ultimate Buy-and-Hold" portfolio, or the tilts suggested in Larry Swedroe's model portfolios in The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need. I agree that the effects are microscopic.

If you'll recommend a percentage allocation of stocks to small-cap value I'll gladly rerun the same backtest with whatever percentage you suggest.
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fiduciary advisors vs not - how important do you think it is
Replies: 33
Views: 2233

Re: Fiduciary advisors vs not - how important do you think it is

P.S. Fisher's talk about "we do better when our clients do better" is misleading. Even if true, their motives are not as aligned with their client's as implied, because... They do not lose money when their clients lose money. That means they in fact are incentivized to put clients into the riskiest investments they can, without getting in trouble. If a client has a $1 million portfolio, and the AUM fee is 1% (Fisher's seems to be more), then, back of the envelope: Lower-risk portfolio: 50/50 chance of +15% or -5%. Client makes $150,000, reaches $1,150,000, advisor makes $11,500. Client loses $50,000, falls to $950,000, advisor makes $9,500. Advisor's expectation is $10,500. Higher-risk portfolio: 50/50 chance of +30% or -10%. Clie...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fiduciary advisors vs not - how important do you think it is
Replies: 33
Views: 2233

Re: Fiduciary advisors vs not - how important do you think it is

I made a half-hearted attempt to answer this question once. Or rather, to answer a more specific question. The form I asked it in was "Are Vanguard advisors fiduciaries?" What I think I learned is that the firm may be a fiduciary but that doesn't mean the particular human being you are talking to is. And that the same human being may or may not be a fiduciary depending on what hat they are wearing (whether they are selling you a mutual fund or insurance).

I gave up. I don't know how to tell if an advisor is a fiduciary and I don't know what it means in real life.
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there recent data on DFA-type funds vs low-cost index funds?
Replies: 8
Views: 946

Re: Is there recent data on DFA-type funds vs low-cost index funds?

The eternal problem is that "DFA-type funds" seem to do a good job of what they are supposed to do, i.e. capture the value factor, but there is endless debate on how valuable or important it is to capture that factor. I am willing to believe that "DFA-type funds" successfully trade off strict passivity in exchange for capturing factors with lower transaction costs and deeper exposure than index funds do. The question is a) the value of the result, and b) in a whole portfolio where the specific holding of small-cap value is only a small part of the portfolio, is it really much better to get the desired factor exposure in the form of a smaller holding of a "more value-y" fund versus a slightly larger holding of a...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there recent data on DFA-type funds vs low-cost index funds?
Replies: 8
Views: 946

Re: Is there recent data on DFA-type funds vs low-cost index funds?

Although it is reasonable to say that the S&P 500 is not perfectly passive--it is not, as people sometimes thing, the 500 largest-cap stocks--it is also stretching things to call it actively managed. It's well to remember the S&P 500's origins. I believe it's reasonably faithful to its original intentions. It was intended to be a total market index--but one that could be calculated hourly using the most computing power available in 1957. That is the reason for the limit of 500. As for the selection principle, prior to the (alleged) discovery of the "size effect" in 1981, capitalization was not considered to be a natural or important characteristic of a stock. So they needed to select 500 somehow, and what they decided was ...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
Replies: 13
Views: 1211

Re: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF

Another relevant detail is that KMLM's expense ratio is 0.90%, and DBMF's is 0.85.
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It is really that simple to do it the Bogleheads way?
Replies: 87
Views: 7896

Re: It is really that simple to do it the Bogleheads way?

I think the underlying question is "satisficing" versus "optimizing." "Satisficing" is a portmanteau word coined by Herbert Simon in the 1950s, combining "satisfy" and "suffice." The original meaning referred to systems for making decisions in the presence of unavoidable uncertainty. In searching for solutions, it means settling for a strategy that is good enough, rather that searching for an (unattainable) optimum. The Bogleheads idea is that satisficing is appropriate for personal investors. Satisficing versus optimizing is a major personal life value, and of course we behave differently when solving different kinds of problem. Notice that people who are selling things have a self-interest...
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 23, 2024 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I use copycat active ETF to do Tax-Loss Harvesting?
Replies: 13
Views: 831

Re: Can I use copycat active ETF to do Tax-Loss Harvesting?

Unlike Vanguard's index funds, TDVG does not seem to be an ETF class of PRDGX... To date, it is only Vanguard that does that. They actually had a business patent on their process for creating ETFs as share classes of mutual funds. The patent expired, I think just last year. I think another firm may have applied to the SEC to create similar ETFs. There is some feeling that the SEC is not really happy they let Vanguard do it and might not want to see more of them. Recently I found PRDGX (T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth) has a copycat ETF called TDVG (T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth ETF). Given PRDGX distibutes more and more capital gains in recent years, I want to change to this one during market downturn. ...can I buy TDVG and sell PRDGX at a l...
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 23, 2024 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It is really that simple to do it the Bogleheads way?
Replies: 87
Views: 7896

Re: It is really that simple to do it the Bogleheads way?

Yes, it's that simple. For example, my employer's 401(k) was managed by Fidelity, and featured their target date fund series, the "Freedom Funds." The (original) series was a fund-of-funds that included about twenty-odd individual Fidelity funds. The first time I peeked into a Vanguard target-date fund, which at that time IIRC contained only four funds--Total Stock, Total International, Total Bond, and (boo!) the Vanguard Asset Allocation Fund--I thought there was something profoundly wrong, or cheap-and-cheesy about using such a small number of funds. Both funds have changed their composition over the years, but this is Fidelity's current composition: Fidelity Series Growth Company Fund 7.45% Fidelity Series Large Cap Stock Fund ...
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 23, 2024 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Medical Alert ID, link to medical records .......Please do NOT use this thread to ask or give medical advice.
Replies: 19
Views: 1110

Re: Medical Alert ID, link to medical records .......Please do NOT use this thread to ask or give medical advice.

A curious thought is that medical information might be more important when encountering cops than EMTs. "I am diabetic" could certainly avoid confusion between insulin shock and alcoholism, and unlike emergency rooms, I don't think cops check blood glucose (although... nowadays? maybe they can?)
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 23, 2024 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 145
Views: 16085

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

P.S. I personally lost an unimportant amount of money buying stock in Digital Equipment Corporation on what I thought was a dip, saying "Wall Street just doesn't understand. I've used DEC computers for years and I really know just how good they are." P.P.S. An retired airline pilot put me on to Juan Browne 'Blancolirio's' YouTube channel, https://www.youtube.com/@blancolirio . He's an airline pilot with American Airlines, which to me is an assurance that he's going to be quite careful to be factually accurate about what he says, and his simple byt detauked descriptions of the details of unfolding news like the door problem are interesting. He illustrates them with references to official reports, charts of the airspeed and altitude...
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 23, 2024 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 145
Views: 16085

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

I think the key point is that after the 737-MAX autopilot/MCAS crashes, it looked like a problem for Boeing but it looked like a specific problem in a specific piece of equipment on a specific model of plane. What the stock price wasn't telling you, and what would be hard to know as a layperson outsider, was that it was a general problem affecting multiple things in multiple models, a problem in the corporate culture and their relations with Spirit Aerosystems, a problem going deep. Did anybody toying with the idea buying Boeing at a "bargain price" in 2022 even know the name "Spirit Aerosystems of Wichita, Kansas?" It doesn't have to be an Enron. (Although that can never be ruled out, nobody thought Enron was an Enron; ...
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 23, 2024 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Medical Alert ID, link to medical records .......Please do NOT use this thread to ask or give medical advice.
Replies: 19
Views: 1110

Re: Medical Alert ID, link to medical records .......Please do NOT use this thread to ask or give medical advice.

White Coat Investor wrote: Sat Mar 23, 2024 7:26 am I'm a big fan of people bringing in a single sheet of paper with a list of their current medications and dosages, allergies to medications, and medical problems you regularly see a doctor for. If you want to include a list of past surgeries and past medical problems that's helpful too but if it's six pages long that's too comprehensive.
Thank you very much.

At what point do you take someone's wallet out of their pocket to search for ID?
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 23, 2024 7:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dedicated Financial Computer Master Thread
Replies: 195
Views: 8482

Re: Dedicated Financial Computer Master Thread

I know that security is technically complicated, and that I am not an expert. I therefore think that my intuitions about what practices add security are not reliable. It is very easy to get talked into some basically-superstitious practice under the guise of advice. At one point I was working for two scientists, each of whom had their own PDP-11 minicomputer. One of them absolutely insisted that his computer be powered down every night--not for energy reasons, but because he believed that risks and required maintenance were a direct function of the number of hours of operation. (The expensive air filters for the disk drives absolutely did have a replacement schedule based on hours of operation, for example). The other absolutely insisted th...
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 10:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Medical Alert ID, link to medical records .......Please do NOT use this thread to ask or give medical advice.
Replies: 19
Views: 1110

Re: Medical Alert ID, link to medical records .......Please do NOT use this thread to ask or give medical advice.

The "vial of life" is a different product (and not a vial). Yes, the "file of life" is actually a pair of envelopes, one with a magnet to go on the fridge and the other small enough to go in a wallet. Can be useful, especially a list of *current* medicines. The problem is, medication regimens change, and people don't always update their lists; old lists with cross-outs all over the place and scribbles in the margins might be worse than none. True enough. The "file of life" is dated and says it should be updated every six months, but, uh... well... I don't do it that often. Perhaps a better approach is to keep all your meds--the actual containers--in one location (safe from inquisitive youngsters), and then in y...
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
Replies: 13
Views: 1211

Re: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF

Always passive wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2024 4:37 pm Very informative, thank you.
On [KMLM], I only found data from 2021, when the ETF seems to have its start. Where did you find data from the late 1980s?
I have the same question. According to the provider, KFA Funds, the inception date for KMLM was 12/2/2020. Source
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
Replies: 13
Views: 1211

Re: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF

Professoro wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2024 2:18 am ...3. Not one managed futures fund, but almost all of them do better than bonds.
The chart I posted is for Morningstar's category average for all managed futures fund. How can the category average underperform bonds if "almost all of them do better than bonds?"
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Walmart Plus Feels Like A Scam
Replies: 53
Views: 5908

Re: Walmart Plus Feels Like A Scam

The thing that is addictive about Amazon Prime is that shipping is free, period, no ifs, ands, or buts. An even with free shipping, typically--not always, but typically--Amazon prices are competitive with local brick-and-mortar stores. To pick one completely at random: "my" toothpaste is Sensodyne Pronamel Repair. The Amazon price, with free shipping, 3.4 ounces, pack of one, $6.98, free shipping, free delivery tomorrow. CVS, in stock at the local store, pick-up price, $8.79. Walmart, in stock, pickup in store $6.98. Costco: doesn't have it; I can buy a different kind of Sensodyne, but must buy four, $31.99/4 = $8 each. I don't pretend to understand pricing. Amazon prices are not necessarily bargains, but they typically are compet...
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Medical Alert ID, link to medical records .......Please do NOT use this thread to ask or give medical advice.
Replies: 19
Views: 1110

Re: Medical Alert ID, link to medical records .......Please do NOT use this thread to ask or give medical advice.

Low tech. Keep it simple. Until I hear differently from some first responder organization, I am settling for a "File of Life." This is just a bright red plastic envelope, the size of a credit card, that says "File of Life" on it. It holds a paper document listing my medical information. It fits in my wallet. Our local fire or health department, I don't remember which, was handing them out for free. It comes with a piece of paper that's a fill-in-the-blanks form, but I just settle for printing out a Word document the right side that has the same information in the same order. If they get to the going-through-my-wallet stage, they'll find it. I am dubious about whether the USB lanyard gadgets all follow the common format a...
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When brand names matter and when they don't
Replies: 173
Views: 10449

Re: When brand names matter and when they don't

Milk. No. It's milk. There are no high-dollar cows giving superior milk. To me it seems at least plausible, leaning towards likely, that there are indeed high-dollar cows giving superior milk (cows that are fed and treated better, etc). Would you say that beef is beef, and there are no high-dollar cows giving superior beef? Japan and Argentina would beg to differ. What would be the difference with milk? I don't know if it's the cows. I think the difference between the delivered-by-truck-in-glass-bottles milk and supermarket milk might be as simple as freshness. It would be interesting to have a home test for lactic acid. I think milk has a very long slow process of becoming sour, and it becomes "less delicious" long long before i...
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you tip hotel staff when checking out?
Replies: 145
Views: 6857

Re: Do you tip hotel staff when checking out?

I am 99.9% sure that no supermarket employee is a "tipped employee," so you don't need to tip them. Ditto cooks and dishwashers in restaurants. The tradition is that hotel housekeepers and waitstaff are tipped, SO they get paid less... SO they need tips. The system sucks, and in the US it has an ugly backstory. The fiction that tips are extraordinary rewards for extraordinary performance doesn't fit reality. In the case of hotel housekeepers, the level of service is pretty standardized. If it's a well-run hotel the chances of below-par service is small. The chances that a housekeeper will have the opportunity to perform outstanding above-and-beyond service is also small. So does a housekeeper "deserve" a tip for "ju...
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you hold Canada fund because it is missing in your international stock fund?
Replies: 21
Views: 1796

Re: Do you hold Canada fund because it is missing in your international stock fund?

One of the benefits of Vanguard revamping their Total International Index Fund, circa 2011 or so, was the inclusion of Canada. In the forum, people were cheering: "Small-caps! and Canada!" So it's not an issue for me. But the answer to your question is: a) Canada is only about 7% of international stocks, and b) EWC, a Canada index ETF, has had an 0.87 correlation with VXUS. Personally, if I didn't have access to an international stock fund that included Canada, I wouldn't fuss about it. After all, it was, in fact, missing from my own holdings up until around 2011. i wonder where you get the 0.87 correlation between EWC and VXUS? can you also provide correlation between EWC and any US stock market index? thank you Sorry, I should ...
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what age to tell child about family's finances
Replies: 74
Views: 6060

Re: At what age to tell child about family's finances

I would say: answer questions; hint at openness to questions; don't volunteer; be evasive about specific numbers that might get shared or compared with friends.
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever
Replies: 22
Views: 3644

Re: Buy and Hold Forever

NostraHistoria wrote: Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:53 pm Great responses. Thx.

Maybe BAHF should be added to the tenets of the Bogleheads?
I don't think so. "Forever" is too vague. And I think the idea is covered well enough by "Buy and hold forever" is not a slogan I've heard used in the forum, and without an explanation I wouldn't know what "BAHF" means.
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When brand names matter and when they don't
Replies: 173
Views: 10449

Re: When brand names matter and when they don't

lazydavid wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2024 8:21 am ...Milk from our regional dairy Oberweis, tastes dramatically better than the slop that comes in plastic bottles at the grocery store...
Same thing here. There is a dairy that delivers, in glass bottles. The first time I tasted it was a real boooiiiing!-time-travel experience. It instantly reminded me of how milk tasted when I was a kid. Of how milk tastes. Absolutely positively worth it if you can meet their minimum delivery quantity.
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When brand names matter and when they don't
Replies: 173
Views: 10449

Re: When brand names matter and when they don't

If it matters to you and you can tell the difference, then it matters. I used to think I could tell the difference between Coke and Pepsi. One day the family was in the McDonald's drive-through, and we had our four drinks--to be fair, with a cap and a straw you don't have a chance to get the full "nose" of the beverage--and I thought to myself, "Hmmm, my coke tastes a little funny," but I went on drinking. Then my daughter yelled "DAAAAAD! You have my root beer!" So I figured... if I wasn't certain that a root beer isn't a coke, my taste perception probably isn't as keen as I thought. On the other hand, my son at about age 7 once took the Pepsi Challenge at a shopping mall. The presenter said "You chose P...
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When brand names matter and when they don't
Replies: 173
Views: 10449

Re: When brand names matter and when they don't

I think I may have been nabbed by the spelling police. I can’t even remember the last time I reached for the k or c work I may have misspelled. Lol. Was it potatoe or tomatoe that Dan Quayle famously misspelled? (Probably* tomatoe since it would be most appropriate here.) It was "potatoe." He didn't just misspell it himself. That might have been forgivable. He was visiting a classroom and he corrected a student who had written it on the board as "potato." One wag said "The reporters thought he had goofed. They were pretty sure he had goofed. But until the checked the dictionary at the back of the classroom, they didn't know he had goofed." But really I admire those reporters because quite often when you check ...
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When brand names matter and when they don't
Replies: 173
Views: 10449

Re: When brand names matter and when they don't

Unfortunately what you get from a brand name fluctuates, and is inconsistent within a single brand. Many brands decide at some point to strip-mine their brand value, knowing that they can keep their reputation for quite a while without actually providing the quality that built their reputation. Globalization means that many US brand names are just hollow shells, slapping a name onto a variegated bunch of products made overseas and, seemingly, not doing their own quality testing. I can tell whenever a shoe company changes the country of manufacture because the fit always changes. You'd think it would be easy enough to literally send the same lasts to the new supplier, but apparently they don't do that. There's no consistency as to whether th...
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reset 4% withdrawal floor if portfolio increases in value?
Replies: 93
Views: 7950

Re: Reset 4% withdrawal floor if portfolio increases in value?

People have long noted the paradox that the 4% rule can and does produce different "allowances" for the same year given different starting points. If you retire in year Y, and the market goes up more than inflation, and your friend retires in Y+1, the rule will allow your friend to withdraw more, each and every year. But the studies simply calculate the overall percentages of success over all starting points. The studies say, for example, that for a 4% initial withdrawal, for a randomly chosen starting year, 95% of all retirees might have had their money last thirty years. They don't say that the probabilities are the same for every retiree in every year. The problem is always predicting the future. We feel intuitively that at the...
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 22, 2024 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active fund for international equity allocation?
Replies: 34
Views: 2592

Re: Active fund for international equity allocation?

If an active international stock fund has had excluded Russia and China from its portfolio, its performance would have outperform ed VTIAX or VXUS with ease. One solution is would have been buying developed markets index funds like VTMGX or VEA, but then you lose the growth opportunity from India. Fixed that for you thanks, my English is not good. i revised my post based on your advice. The point here is not your English. Native speakers have this problem, too. The point is that everyone should stay conscious that all we know about performance is in the past. It is so easy to say that thus-and-such fund "beats" VXUS, and easy to think it is a permanent characteristic. All we know is that the fund "beat" VXUS in the past...