Search found 33908 matches

by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000
Replies: 20
Views: 1398

Re: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000

...In 1999, there was euphoria in the market. I don't get any sense of euphoria today. In fact, I'd say that until last year, this was the most unloved bull market I've ever heard of... I continue to think the difference is that the 1995-2000 bull market was piled on top of a solid and long-sustain...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 609

Re: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?

I don't think the Shiller (no C in his name) CAPE can be used for anything except predicting the stock market crash of 2000-2002, once.

And now that everyone knows about it, it won't work again.
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 124
Views: 16037

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

So you are saying that in addition to everything else, cryptocurrency users need to consider at least the possibility of a DOS attack intentionally directed at a particular currency? Grand.

Now, who might want to do a thing like that?
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham
Replies: 16
Views: 1454

Re: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham

The Intelligent Investor was written in 1949 when the Dow Jones was at 180. The passage I quoted is from the 1973 edition , and makes specific reference to not going over 50% unless an investor "is sure that he could view of market decline of the 1969-70 type with equanimity." It is very clear that...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham
Replies: 16
Views: 1454

Re: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham

One thing to remember is that Graham has been dead for 40 years and his great work was done 80 years ago. People didn't live as long, in general, and the idea of spending old age living above the garage of an adult child wasn't considered bad. Anyway, there wasn't as along a period for stocks to re...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham
Replies: 16
Views: 1454

Re: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham

His actual words: We have suggested as a fundamental guiding rule that the investor should never have less than 25% or more than 75% of his funds in common stocks, with a consequent inverse range of between 75% and 25% in bonds. There is an implication here that the standard division should be an eq...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?
Replies: 31
Views: 1403

Re: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?

With regard to emerging markets bonds, I don't want to over emphasize this, but: 1998. It's important because it has dropped out of the ten-year time window through which people often look. EMB, for example, only had its inception in 2007. FMNIX, Fidelity New Markets Income, is an emerging markets b...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?
Replies: 31
Views: 1403

Re: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?

Not me. I think you mean the Vanguard paper, Global fixed income: Considerations for U.S. investors . I think it's a good paper, and I've read it, fairly carefully, a couple of times. The interesting thing is that the conclusions I drew from it were: a) It doesn't make any sense to hold foreign bond...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Better Buy” Total US or International ?
Replies: 25
Views: 2094

Re: “Better Buy” Total US or International ?

I don't know and I don't care. It would never even occur to me to try to figure it out. The market has decided how much it wants to pay for U.S. and international stocks. When you get to a total global scale, 3,624 stocks in Vanguard Total [U.S.] Stock Market Index, 6,267 in Vanguard Total Internati...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?
Replies: 13
Views: 838

Re: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?

Here's another thing. Larry Swedroe and Jared Kizer wrote a good book called The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll Ever Need: The Good, the Flawed, the Bad, and the Ugly. If you want to take the next step in exploring preferred stocks, you should definitely read the chapter of the book th...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?
Replies: 13
Views: 838

Re: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?

...He says its the best of both the worlds - less risky than stock and higher returns than bond... Yes, they are less risky than stock and higher returns than bonds. No, they are not the "best of both worlds," they are just in between. The big question is: are they any better than simply investing ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 124
Views: 16037

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Buying bitcoin from a Las Vegas ATM Some Las Vegas restaurants accept payment in bitcoin, so I decided to try to buy bitcoin from a casino's bitcoin ATM. I lost all my money. Considering the exorbitant bitcoin ATM fee, I have real doubts as to whether or not bitcoin has a real future as a currency....
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you correct cashier mistakes?
Replies: 41
Views: 2030

Re: Do you correct cashier mistakes?

Yes, I do. I ask for corrections, either way. Sometimes I will forego some trivial "deal," a slightly-reduced price that doesn't ring up properly, if it's a small amount and it's busy. One of the truly mysterious moments in my life occurred a while ago, when I was buying a book at Brentano's in New ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nostalgic about old online brokerages that no longer exist
Replies: 28
Views: 2543

Re: Nostalgic about old online brokerages that no longer exist

I'm not nostalgic, but I do remember Schwab's $29.95 commission for online trades once seeming dirt cheap, miraculously cheap, unbelievably cheap. People who fuss over 0.05% expense ratios have no idea. Before the end of negotiated commissions, your typical brokerage transaction cost considerably mo...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7522

Re: Heading for a top?

First, I think that it is reasonable to restrict the phrase "market timing" to mean "the strategies followed by people who call themselves market timers." Market timers make huge moves, frequently all in or all out of chosen asset classes, based on "signals" derived from various sources--commonly te...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey's Millionaire Study
Replies: 59
Views: 9679

Re: Dave Ramsey's Millionaire Study

He doesn't care about the results of the survey. Surveys are just an effective way to get people involved with Ramsey. The survey results will show whatever he want them to show because most of the people who take it will be people who are attracted to Ramsey's ideas. In the case of widely publicize...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 4085

Re: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?

I think you need to get past your emotions first before you make any decisions. If I had a 200K windfall to invest, I would start by putting it into the boring old portfolio I have now. I would decouple the excitement of the windfall from the investment decision. The fact of money become available d...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2349

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

Who knows who is right or wrong, but considering Ben Graham was writing about ideas of value investing in 1930's and is the most well known investor of ALL TIME with many financial professionals following his work (Buffett being just one of them) and in the value premium is STILL around tells me it...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2742
Views: 876381

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

...I Just finished “Fire and Fury”... I have, too. I will say these things: 1) it is a long book that held my interest from beginning to end. The long excerpt in New York magazine did not contain everything in the book that was worth reading. 2) There is something delightful about the fact that thi...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2742
Views: 876381

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Alexander McCall Smith, Precious and Grace, number 278* in the "No. 1 Ladies' Detective Agency" series but I must say he keeps the quality fairly high for unbelievable number of books he writes... *Just kidding, but it must be like the eleventh or twelfth or so... I found "No. 1 Ladies' Detective A...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: video- How Dave Ramsey's Mutual Funds Have Performed Since 1973
Replies: 5
Views: 1230

Re: video- How Dave Ramsey's Mutual Funds Have Performed Since 1973

I listened to this Dave's rant and I found it very convenient that all his funds in his 401K according to him, beat the S&P index and other indexes over the last 10, 20, 30 and 40 years. I wonder where the catch is.... I'm not going to listen to the rant, but this is common in 401(k) plans; it migh...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2349

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

... Factor investors are making intelligent bets founded on rational analysis that certain systematic departures from the market will beat the market... It's not quite that, IMO. One claim made by factor investors is that you can use factors to tailor your portfolio asset allocation to achieve cert...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!
Replies: 25
Views: 4400

Re: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!

If anyone plays QuizUp... an online, real-time, one-on-one, rapidfire trivia-quiz game... then you know... it's kind of cool playing near the beginning of the year. In the first few hours of the year there are not very many people playing, and it will pop up a cheerful announcement that you are #1 i...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 99
Views: 7259

Re: Kodakcoin

And we all laughed at Venezuela... Sweden planning e-Krona Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, is spearheading international cooperation on the development of officially sanctioned cryptocurrencies and could be the first to launch its own... [HSBC talks of] the possible introduction of a so-called ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2349

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

...as TSM increasingly becomes a big bet on large cap growth at current valuations... NO. IT. ISN'T. Actually it is. TSM is 70% SP500. Look at TSM and SP500 they are basically the same returns, risk, and likely correlation coefficient. The 70% is such a large portion of TSM the 20% in mid, 7% in sm...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2349

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

Sorry if this is naive - what's the difference between factor investing and, admittedly sophisticated, backtesting? A dumb example - Let's say that over the last 30 years, stocks in my (indexed) portfolio at the very beginning of the alphabet - Apple - have performed better than stocks at the end o...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2349

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

...as TSM increasingly becomes a big bet on large cap growth at current valuations... NO. IT. ISN'T. That is exactly what makes the total stock market different from every other strategy: it is the only one that cannot be overgrazed. If you have a people in a cafeteria ladling Italian Wedding Soup ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7522

Re: Heading for a top?

When looking at the performance of the market since 2009, all statistics should be tempered by the observation that about half of it is measuring from the bottom of well. There is all the difference in the world between the bull market of 1995-2000, which was in the nature of an acceleration on top ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There really is more than one road to Dublin!
Replies: 6
Views: 743

Re: There really is more than one road to Dublin!

Image

We could even say: "Take the Malvern route to Dublin."

Image
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7522

Re: Heading for a top?

VBIAX is not a suitable benchmark because it contains zero, (0.00%) of international equities. Select another time frame where international funds did well and VBIAX should have done worse during that time frame. Of course, I suppose one could say, "Well, tactical asset allocators should have know ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Account Fraud
Replies: 7
Views: 1052

Re: Account Fraud

Keep in mind that Vanguard is not like PayPal or a bank bill-paying service. It is not designed to move money between two different people. Let's suppose a hacker got access to my account. What, exactly, could he do apart from causing vandalism or mischief just for the heck of it? He could initiate ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7522

Re: Heading for a top?

...Shifting from 60/40 to 50/50 when CAPE hits 40 something is just plain common sense - same as shifting 60/40 to 70/30 during/after a major drawdown. It seems like "just plain common sense," and yet tactical asset allocation funds, which were very popular in the 1980s, had an almost ludicrous rec...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When the Fed stops what do you do?
Replies: 17
Views: 2281

Re: When the Fed stops what do you do?

IInflation seems to be the predominant concern but I am allowing for a moderate increase in inflation by having a necessary SWR lower than the interest rate of the 30-year Treasuries. Who says that an inflation increase has to be "moderate"? You may not be old enough to remember what happened to in...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard merchandise
Replies: 4
Views: 442

Re: Vanguard merchandise

Pretty sure it's long gone. It used to be at http://www.vanguardgear.com/shop/ and it's been noticed for maybe a year that there's nothing but a blank page or an error at that URL.
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much more return would DFA funds produce?
Replies: 11
Views: 751

Re: How much more return would DFA funds produce?

Backtests, hindsight, lantern-off-the-stern, past performance yadda-yadda. I'm going to use one of the model portfolios published in 1998 in Larry Swedroe's The Only Guide To Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need: Index Funds and Beyond--The Way Smart Money Creates Wealth Today . I implemente...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much more return would DFA funds produce?
Replies: 11
Views: 751

Re: How much more return would DFA funds produce?

There's no reasonable way to answer this question. You might look at the Bogleheads Wiki article on Dimensional Fund Advisors for some notes on DFA. My personal belief is that you need to assess the value that you feel you get from the advisor. This is hard to do, of course, but it probably isn't an...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse
Replies: 34
Views: 5159

Re: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse

nedsaid wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:17 pm
The thing is, even though bonds might be overpriced they are still far less volatile than stocks. For me the concern isn't that bonds will drop 50% but that they won't keep up with inflation.
Well said.
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ultimate all-value portfolio using Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 568

Re: ultimate all-value portfolio using Vanguard

25% U.S. large value -- obvious choice would be the Vanguard Value Index Fund, VIVAX / VVIAX / VTV . They didn't call it large value because people weren't so interested in mid-caps or small-caps then. 25% U.S. small value -- obvious choice would be Vanguard Small-cap Value Index Fund, VISVX / VSIAX...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do bonds generally go up when the stock market crashes?
Replies: 27
Views: 1442

Re: Do bonds generally go up when the stock market crashes?

a) The Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund basically stayed flat during 2008-2009. Which seemed pretty good. But it was flat, it didn't go up. b) There is a feeling, and I give some credence, to the idea that Treasuries go up a bit when the stock market crash--but if we are talking about the kind ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chained CPI Impact
Replies: 8
Views: 895

Re: Chained CPI Impact

Executive summary: a) it doesn't affect TIPS, because it doesn't affect CPI-U itself. b) In any case, the difference between CPI-U and C-CPI-U is on the order of maybe 0.25%, so if it did affect VIPSX, which it doesn't , it would no worse than changing from VIPSX (expense ratio 0.20%) to Fidelity In...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR and inflation - newbie question
Replies: 4
Views: 264

Re: SWR and inflation - newbie question

The answer is yes, withdrawals are assumed to be inflation-adjusted, and the (reasonable) hope is that investment portfolios will grow enough faster than inflation to sustain them. As traditionally framed, e.g. in the 1998 Trinity study, several different regimes were studied but the one that's norm...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 99
Views: 7259

Re: Kodakcoin

...A crypto currency key (or a password that allows access to the key) is basically a bearer instrument, like a pile of dollar bills... Just to be clear: bitcoin can be stolen? Bitcoin can even be stolen without your knowledge? If someone gets a copy of your key, they could cash in your bitcoin and...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 99
Views: 7259

Re: Kodakcoin

Am I wrong in my assumption that current Kodak company has nothing to do with its former glory aka the rights to the Kodak name were purchased by some foreign investor group aka similar to Polaroid ? Wikipedia: In January 2012, Kodak filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States D...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When the Fed stops what do you do?
Replies: 17
Views: 2281

Re: When the Fed stops what do you do?

Have watched the Fed closely for years, I believe they will continue on their program of Fed funds rate rises until they hit 3.0% in 2020. In February 2014, Bloomberg polled 67 economists on what was going to happen to the 10-year Treasury rate over the next six months. 67 out of 67, 100%, said it ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse
Replies: 34
Views: 5159

Re: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse

Can't get at paywalled WSJ articles any more, but as always: how much "even worse" in dollars? And how certain is "may be" in terms of taking action? Shares of Vanguard Total Bond were $10 a share when the fund launched in 1986. Today they are at 10.69%. Here is a PRICE chart, which ignores the (con...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2349

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

I think this is already happening. For example, even Berkin and Swedroe's Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing cites academic research showing clear evidence of a decline effect in factor premia after they become widely known. The book presents it in a context of minimizing it, says the siz...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 99
Views: 7259

Re: Kodakcoin

BHUser27 wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:39 am
...It is not "coin" at all really...
And by calling it KodakCoin they certainly have done their best to help the investment community understand what it is. <--- irony.
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 99
Views: 7259

Re: Kodakcoin

...there are plenty of coins which have a purpose and are in use by top companies and institutions... Please name a coin, its purpose, and the top company that is actually using it now for that purpose. Not an announcement (Kodak; the government of Venezuela). Not a pilot project (RE/Max London). N...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Accelerated Bookbuild - who's informed and when? And what are the consequences?
Replies: 21
Views: 1047

Re: Accelerated Bookbuild - who's informed and when? And what are the consequences?

What is "accelerated bookbuild?" I did do a web search, top hit was this , I read it, I'm no wiser. An accelerated bookbuild is a form of offering in the equity capital markets. It involves offering shares in a short time period, with little to no marketing. The bookbuild of the offering is done vey...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zimbabwe stock market acting strangely again
Replies: 15
Views: 1852

Re: Zimbabwe stock market acting strangely again

What's its correlation with Bitcoin? :twisted: