Search found 34971 matches

by nisiprius
Sun May 20, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 16
Views: 929

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

We have the package of ordinary new safety and driver-assist features on our ordinary 2016-model car: pre-collision sensing, late departure alert, blind spot sensing, and so forth. I think it's worthwhile. Three features we find really valuable are the blind-spot sensing, the "rear cross traffic" al...
by nisiprius
Sun May 20, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 76
Views: 8720

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

He never mentions Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). He never says why. Are his comments supposed to apply to TIPS, too, or only to nominal bonds? I don't know. AFAIK he hasn't said. I've followed Buffett for a long time and don't recall him ever specifically addressing TIPS, but I fee...
by nisiprius
Sun May 20, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?
Replies: 35
Views: 3587

Re: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?

I used a FIRECALC-like tool provided by Fidelity, called the Fidelity Retirement Income Planner, circa 2007. Here are some things that really influenced me. a) I had and have a very conservative allocation. After I ran the tool, it gave me a very specific recommendation that I should consider increa...
by nisiprius
Sun May 20, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009
Replies: 35
Views: 3439

Re: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009

One obvious reason for rebalancing, the one I think everyone agrees on, is that if you have chosen, say, a 40/60 asset allocation based on your risk tolerance, and you do nothing, and it drifts to 70/30, you have probably exceeded your risk tolerance and you should have done something about it. (In ...
by nisiprius
Sun May 20, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?
Replies: 18
Views: 1791

Re: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?

No true Scotsman No true Scotsman or appeal to purity is an informal fallacy in which one attempts to protect a universal generalization from counterexamples by changing the definition in an ad hoc fashion to exclude the counterexample. Rather than denying the counterexample or rejecting the origin...
by nisiprius
Sat May 19, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 76
Views: 8720

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

I think if you read his shareholder letters you'd be less unsure of what he says. Also, there would be no question as to context or his audience. The shareholder letters are written to Berkshire shareholders. What he says on CNN or whatever in sound bites should be largely ignored for what he says ...
by nisiprius
Sat May 19, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 76
Views: 8720

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

My objection to Buffett is that he never seems to explain himself. He says what he says. What he says is short, cryptic, and incomplete. He does not have some longer book in which he fills things out. Almost everyone who cites Buffett puts an interpretation on Buffett's words, and many fail to quote...
by nisiprius
Sat May 19, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What’s your phone/internet bill?
Replies: 71
Views: 3932

Re: What’s your phone/internet bill?

$60/month for fiber optic "high speed" Internet, 75 mbps down, 30 mbps up ("high speed" being the slowest service offered, of course!) They throw in VOIP-based phone service for free. The phone goes out if the power goes out. We decided that was acceptable to us because we have our cell phones as ba...
by nisiprius
Sat May 19, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3103

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

The Kizer paper is pretty interesting and deserves more discussion. The link to the paper is Re-Examining the Credit Premium and the full paper can be downloaded there at no cost. I have a problem with the abstract, which states, in part: The differences in findings appear to be driven by the abnorm...
by nisiprius
Sat May 19, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 76
Views: 8720

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

1) This board is devoted to "Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle." Not everyone who calls himself or herself a Boglehead agrees with everything Bogle says or does everything he recommends--I don't--but it is relevant nevertheless. Bogle's own investments are about 50% stocks, 50% bonds. And he's...
by nisiprius
Fri May 18, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 35
Views: 3082

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

Would you be thinking of "passive funds that are willing to accept a little tracking error" in general, or would you be thinking specifically of Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA?) I ask because DFA is the only fund family I personally am aware of that does this. FWIW, Vanguard does this, too. Their n...
by nisiprius
Fri May 18, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 35
Views: 3082

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

False. When I rebalance our portfolio I buy low and sell high. Automatically. It's true that some people are able to "front run" a stock that's about to be added to an index. Except that modern indexes make this hard to do. Index providers have been doing things like this since at least the year 20...
by nisiprius
Fri May 18, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you concerned that over 75% of IPOs are unprofitable?
Replies: 8
Views: 787

Re: Are you concerned that over 75% of IPOs are unprofitable?

???? I don't invest in IPOs. I don't even know if I can . I've heard that the whole process is reasonably unfair to the general public and that a lot of people get a chance to get in ahead, get special treatment by the underwriters or whatever, and skim the cream. But it doesn't matter because I wou...
by nisiprius
Fri May 18, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 35
Views: 3082

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

I think the argument stating that the use of active management to overcome these potential weaknesses of pure indexing is a bit of a straw man. The real comparison should be to passive funds that are willing to accept a little tracking error to overcome the weaknesses of pure indexes. Dave Would yo...
by nisiprius
Fri May 18, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: more rotten service from Vanguard [ACH transfer, fund availability]
Replies: 26
Views: 2887

Re: more rotten service from Vanguard [ACH transfer, fund availability]

P.S. There was quite an interesting episode of Planet Money, The Invisible Plumbing of Our Economy, mostly about the Automated Clearing House (ACH) system. Basically... it sucks, but nobody has any incentive to do anything about it.
by nisiprius
Fri May 18, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: more rotten service from Vanguard [ACH transfer, fund availability]
Replies: 26
Views: 2887

Re: more rotten service from Vanguard [ACH transfer, fund availability]

oner, I sense that you are pretty ticked off at Vanguard. Why make a post about " more rotten service from Vanguard?" If I seriously feel I am getting "rotten" service from a company, I'm outa there. Why not move to Schwab or Fidelity, and then make a few follow-up posts reporting on your experience...
by nisiprius
Fri May 18, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 35
Views: 3082

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

1) Even if his argument were true, it would only apply to the S&P 500 index. For about twenty years now, index providers have been aware of the problem of front-running and have made it difficult, e.g. by randomizing the day when a stock is added to the index. So don't use an S&P 500 fund, use a tot...
by nisiprius
Fri May 18, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3103

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

I can't deal with half the world saying that the Bloomberg Barclay's Aggregate Index is too heavily weighted in government issues and that everyone should have more corporates than that, half the world saying that everyone should be 100% Treasuries, and the third half saying that everyone should hol...
by nisiprius
Fri May 18, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009
Replies: 35
Views: 3439

Re: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009

Estimating the spread in returns was tough and honestly my gut feeling was off and I wasn't really sure there. But I'm kind of disappointed somehow that people apparently don't understand what rebalancing does with respect to risk. Starting from near a market peak with a given allocation, of course...
by nisiprius
Fri May 18, 2018 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard anti-competitive?
Replies: 26
Views: 2568

Re: Is Vanguard anti-competitive?

Anti-competitive? Only in the sense that any successful competitor is "anti-competitive." It's hard to compete against a successful competitor. Beyond the tautology, winning begets winning; Vanguard has economies of scale working for it, now. And, like Fidelity and American funds, both of which have...
by nisiprius
Thu May 17, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009
Replies: 35
Views: 3439

Re: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009

These are the correct answers. Drag your mouse from here vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv lack_ey had them all correct. 1b) Some rebalancing regimes helped, but none made money--none exceeded $10,000, all resulted in losses over the two-year period. The actual numbers were: No rebalancing 9,313 Rebalance a...
by nisiprius
Thu May 17, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Things I don't understand... [Questions on: dividends, gains, munis]
Replies: 5
Views: 1223

Re: Things I don't understand...

A lot of times when I'm reading posts I hear a lot of terms, concepts I don't understand. Can someone explain the following to me: 1. Living off of dividends 2. Reinvesting dividends 3. Realized gains 4. Unrealized gains 5. Munis Thanks! Dividends: Consider an organization that has members or parti...
by nisiprius
Thu May 17, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank Interest Rates — when will they go up?
Replies: 25
Views: 2595

Re: Bank Interest Rates — when will they go up?

With 10 year Treasury yields over 3.1% as of this posting, I’m wondering when we can expect to see banks raising money market and savings account rates up. Cap One 360 has had their Money Market Account stuck at 1.6% ($10k balance +) for some time. Ally’s online savings is also 1.6%. Shuoldn’t thes...
by nisiprius
Thu May 17, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Simple Index Fund Question
Replies: 12
Views: 1021

Re: Simple Index Fund Question

I can add to our Vanguard mutual funds in as little as $10 (I never tried a lower amount) with no problem. I always thought additional investments were $100 minimum but I guess not. The minimum additional purchase is $1 for the Total Stock Market fund and I assume most (all?) funds would be the sam...
by nisiprius
Thu May 17, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Vanguard's Tax Managed Balanced Fund (VTMFX) truly passive/Index??
Replies: 15
Views: 952

Re: Is Vanguard's Tax Managed Balanced Fund (VTMBF) truly passive/Index??

...1. Would you say that it's "almost" an index fund? 2. For those of us who believe in the passive philosophy, do you consider this a major "no no"?... I don't think many of us are purists; for example, I'm invested in the TIPS fund, VIPSX, even though it's technically not an index fund. John C. B...
by nisiprius
Thu May 17, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Vanguard's Tax Managed Balanced Fund (VTMFX) truly passive/Index??
Replies: 15
Views: 952

Re: Is Vanguard's Tax Managed Balanced Fund (VTMBF) truly passive/Index??

This is weird. Vanguard seems to be sending mixed signals. I would judge that this is an "index-y" fund rather like DFA's "not indexed yet passive" stance, but that for whatever reason Vanguard includes it in the "index" category in its fund filter tool, and in setting a $10,000 minimum for Admiral ...
by nisiprius
Thu May 17, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Junk Bond fund
Replies: 65
Views: 3569

Re: Vanguard Junk Bond fund

mikebee (and Flymore), there's another factor here. I don't want to overemphasize it for two reasons. The first is that I perceive , for no very good reason, that Vanguard is a prudent, cautious, and conservative manager, and I would not be worried about Vanguard's high-yield bond fund. The second i...
by nisiprius
Thu May 17, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Junk Bond fund
Replies: 65
Views: 3569

Re: Vanguard Junk Bond fund

mikebee, what's not to like about it is that you might be crapping up a simple portfolio for no good reason, and kidding yourself that you've accomplished something important when all you've done is the same thing you could have done just tweaking up your stock allocation while staying in investment...
by nisiprius
Wed May 16, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Morgan growth fund
Replies: 14
Views: 741

Re: Vanguard Morgan growth fund

Why is TSM preferable to the vanguard Morgan growth fund? It’s outperformed TSM over the long term (and short and medium terms) and has a modest expense ratio (.27). I know it doesn’t capture as much of the market as TSM but is there a place in ones portfolio for this fund? Thanks Looking only at r...
by nisiprius
Wed May 16, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: The front page is ugly
Replies: 127
Views: 8785

Re: The front page is ugly

...Switch to a sans serif font. Subjectively, I find Times New Roman to be an ugly font for web pages and so do many professional web designers, hence why most major websites don't use it... Perhaps "most" don't, but The New York Times, https://imgur.com/Vev6u0w.png the Wall Street Journal , https:...
by nisiprius
Wed May 16, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - Changes at Vanguard, but Our Confidence Remains
Replies: 4
Views: 1022

Re: Morningstar - Changes at Vanguard, but Our Confidence Remains

The manager of the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund continues to be Joshua C. Barrickman, who took over from Kenneth E. Volpert in 2013. I don't remember any angst about that at the time, nor do I remember any obvious issues from the transition. The fund has just chugged along tracking its index.
by nisiprius
Wed May 16, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: The front page is ugly
Replies: 127
Views: 8785

Re: The front page is ugly

Nobody agrees on whether the voice is saying "Laurel" or "Yanny".

Whichever one they hear, most people find it hard to believe that anyone could possibly hear the other one.

Similarly, many people think that nobody else could possibly disagree with their judgement of website "aesthetics."
by nisiprius
Wed May 16, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Golden Handcuffs
Replies: 53
Views: 8163

Re: Golden Handcuffs

(Someone should write a book entitled "What Color Are Your Handcuffs?")
by nisiprius
Wed May 16, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009
Replies: 35
Views: 3439

Re: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing in 2008-2009

In response to your comment, I've changed the thread title to "Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009" to indicate that I looked only at the standard kinds of systematic rebalancing programmed into PortfolioVisualizer. I used morningstar.com and charted VSMGX ...
by nisiprius
Wed May 16, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009
Replies: 35
Views: 3439

Re: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing in 2008-2009

livesoft wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 9:24 am
...But if I had 60% VTSAX (Total US Stock) and 40% VBTLX (Total US Bond) and rebalanced on March 6, 2009...
Rebalancing at the exact day of a market bottom does work well. Investing in 11,18,37,46,55,45 in the Powerball lottery on March 6th, 2009 would have worked well, too.
by nisiprius
Wed May 16, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009
Replies: 35
Views: 3439

Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009

How good are you at gauging what rebalancing will or will not do in a specific situation? I used PortfolioVisualizer to investigate this situation: (Jan 2008 - Dec 2009) 60% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund 40% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund I used the six options provided by PortfolioV...
by nisiprius
Wed May 16, 2018 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 27
Views: 1428

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

...If we had another 2008 type correction, with blood in the streets, stock prices down -50%, would you be willing to sell some, or all of your bond position and just load up on equities? Obviously, this question is based on someone like me with a long 22-year time horizon before retirement... 1) I...
by nisiprius
Tue May 15, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you know your marginal tax rate?
Replies: 27
Views: 2815

Re: Do you know your marginal tax rate?

I use tax software to do my taxes. One of my last steps is to prepare a second tax return in which I simply increase one of my income entries by $100 and see how much my taxes increase. That gives me my marginal tax rate.
by nisiprius
Tue May 15, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John C. Bogle explains his interpretation of RTM (reversion to mean)
Replies: 6
Views: 1302

Re: John C. Bogle explains his interpretation of RTM (reversion to mean)

It should, and the article should also include material from the Gary Smith paper Bogle referenced... which I'm in the process of reading, and which is very interesting. However, I haven't absorbed either Bogle's remarks or the Gary Smith paper well enough to feel that I'm ready to summarize them.
by nisiprius
Tue May 15, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service Improvement Incentive?
Replies: 12
Views: 1173

Re: Vanguard Customer Service Improvement Incentive?

I wouldn't fuss about it. I don't believe there's a serious problem with Vanguard but that doesn't matter. If you have concerns about Vanguard, use Fidelity or Schwab. Spread the business around. You won't even be hurting Vanguard, Vanguard is big enough, maybe too big. If I had my account at Fideli...
by nisiprius
Tue May 15, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Interesting/Playful ideas for 1 year baby
Replies: 37
Views: 1476

Re: Interesting/Playful ideas for 1 year baby

HongKonger wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 2:20 pm
...Music and singing...
Your baby or toddler is someone who is guaranteed to love your singing.
by nisiprius
Tue May 15, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Interesting/Playful ideas for 1 year baby
Replies: 37
Views: 1476

Re: Interesting/Playful ideas for 1 year baby

I´ll just mention this, because it did evoke the most intense, sustained gales of laughter from my grandson that I ever succeeded in evoking. He was about eighteen months old--he was walking. We were outside, it had been raining, there was a fairly deep puddle, on the sidewalk, maybe 2" deep and thr...
by nisiprius
Tue May 15, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John C. Bogle explains his interpretation of RTM (reversion to mean)
Replies: 6
Views: 1302

John C. Bogle explains his interpretation of RTM (reversion to mean)

I emailed him and asked whether, by "mean reversion," he means active compensation or just failure to persist. He replied. I see that when I asked him for permission to post his reply in the forum, he said "feel free to quote excerpts," so I'll stick to excerpts. He notes that he discusses this in c...
by nisiprius
Tue May 15, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: The front page is ugly
Replies: 127
Views: 8785

Re: The front page is ugly

It is really ugly. Like, Reddit ugly. It should be changed, and mobile users should be considered. 1) So what's wrong with simply setting a bookmark or shortcut to the standard phpBB home page, www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php , which meets whatever design standards the phpBB designers think is a...
by nisiprius
Tue May 15, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "5-Star Funds That Are Less Than Meets The Eye"
Replies: 4
Views: 970

Re: "5-Star Funds That Are Less Than Meets The Eye"

Unfortunately, the Morningstar analyst ratings are no longer visible with an unpaid account. It is now starting to be long enough for those ratings to have a track record. It will be interesting to see whether they are more predictive than the star ratings. Morningstar has said more than once that f...
by nisiprius
Tue May 15, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: How did you fall in love with investing?
Replies: 40
Views: 1942

Re: How did you fall in love with investing?

I try to keep my emotions out of my investing. The market doesn't care about me, and I'd better not kid myself into thinking it does. Of course I'm careful what I say when I'm in my car, because I don't want to hurt its feelings, but I try not to do that with stocks. I sometimes worry about only hav...
by nisiprius
Tue May 15, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Philly.com: Bogleheads say Vanguard's hybrid robo-advisor can be great training
Replies: 11
Views: 1722

Re: Philly.com: Bogleheads say Vanguard's hybrid robo-advisor can be great training

...Vanguard is going to shoe-horn you into a 3-fund portfolio and rebalance quarterly... Nitpick: without actually dealing with them, I can't be sure what they would do, but I would be surprised if it is not a four -fund portfolio these days (i.e. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund and Vanguard ...
by nisiprius
Mon May 14, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is there a boglehead muscle car?
Replies: 129
Views: 6149

Re: Is there a boglehead muscle car?

To the car buffs: does a Tesla Roadster with "Ludicrous Mode" (0-60 in 2.5 seconds) count as a "muscle car?" If not, why not? Does it have to use 1960s technology to be considered a "muscle car?"
by nisiprius
Mon May 14, 2018 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to define "rich"?
Replies: 32
Views: 2217

Re: Best way to define "rich"?

I look from my window to the garden. It is surrounded by a wall which cuts me off from the mountains and the sea. But I watch the vine as it climbs the wall. Then my eyes turn to the plum tree. I rest, and watch the plum tree grow. It grows without any noise whatsoever, and I think how different is...
by nisiprius
Mon May 14, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: The front page is ugly
Replies: 127
Views: 8785

Re: The front page is ugly

To those advocating a redesign: it's easy enough to redesign something that you think is an improvement. What do you think are the chances that you could redesign the site in such a way that almost everyone would agree is an improvement? Also, to the people who are advocating a redesign: I still hav...