Search found 36134 matches

by nisiprius
Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Dimensional Fund Advisors - compared
Replies: 3
Views: 285

Re: DFA Dimensional Fund Advisors - compared

That chart claims to be showing "expected returns for 1/1/1979 - 12/31/2015" for "the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index," am I right? And yet, at the index provider's website , in the factsheet, we learn that the launch date and the first value date of the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Ind...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 18, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: morningstar not displaying charts?
Replies: 9
Views: 449

Re: morningstar not displaying charts?

See the green bar on the top of the quote page: Coming Soon: See a Preview of Our New Fund Quote Page :( Yes, and at the moment, it's a mess. The "new fund quote page" doesn't have a chart. The performance tab on the new fund quote page has a 10-year chart with a linear Y axis. The "interactive cha...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?
Replies: 34
Views: 2071

Re: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?

That Businessweek article deserves more respect than it gets. It is commonly misrepresented as an example of foolish pessimism due to overreaction to normal stock market movements. In reality it is not about market fluctuation, it is about inflation , as is clear when the title is quoted accurately ...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do you get your information? Favorite blogs/sites/resources?
Replies: 16
Views: 936

Re: Where do you get your information? Favorite blogs/sites/resources?

By far the two most common data resources I consult are Morningstar and PortfolioVisualizer. I also consult a physical book, the Ibbotson 2015 Classic Yearbook (it costs about $300 so I buy them used and don't buy them every year!), the Ken French data library, and Robert Shiller's "irrational exube...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 18, 2018 5:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS announces 2019 Tax Rates, Standard Deduction, etc.
Replies: 27
Views: 5241

Re: IRS announces 2019 Tax Rates, Standard Deduction, etc.

...I hadn't heard of CPI-E, so I don't know if that would cut or boost increases... It would boost them. AARP has been advocating for this. "E" stands for "elders," meaning, in this case, 62 or older. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been calculating an "experimental" CPI-E for sometime, and has ...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: morningstar not displaying charts?
Replies: 9
Views: 449

Re: morningstar not displaying charts?

I'm seeing it, too. Looks like it's all funds? Morningstar is flaky and does things like that from time to time. I've seen "no chart" before, sometimes only affecting certain funds. It looks like it's all of them right now. Problems often occur on Sundays. When problems have occurred, I've never fou...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12853

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

...I don't see the relevance in this post. AQR primarily follows strategies found through research that has also been proven out of sample... How have they been "proven out of sample?" The out-of-sample test is AQR's funds themselves, running real money in the real world, and I do not think they ha...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it 'Market Timing' (i.e., Bad) to Have an Investment Plan Where You Increase Stock Allocation if Market Declines?
Replies: 25
Views: 2206

Re: Is it 'Market Timing' (i.e., Bad) to Have an Investment Plan Where You Increase Stock Allocation if Market Declines?

As far as I'm concerned, the term "market timing" means--or ought to mean--the strategies followed by people who call themselves "market timers." There are a lot of them. They don't think they're foolish. "Market timing" consists of making large (often all-in to all-out or vice versa), sudden alloca...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds and their role in a portfolio:
Replies: 9
Views: 967

Re: Bonds and their role in a portfolio:

It's really something personal that you need to explore for yourself. I agree with "take your risk on the equity side." Junk bonds ("high-yield") have risk that's been reliably correlated with stocks, which makes sense because junk bonds are less isolated from the business performance of the issuer;...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block Deluxs 2018 doesn't include Schedule D?
Replies: 14
Views: 885

Re: H&R Block Deluxs 2018 doesn't include Schedule D?

It's too soon to be complaining about tax software. None of the vendors have a finished product yet. I remember Ye Olde Days when I had a slowish internet connection, so I didn't want to deal with downloading anything too big. These were the days of modems with voice phone lines, and in addition to...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 61
Views: 3881

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

what do folks think of the vanguard liquidity factor etf And Vanguard says proudly "Vanguard U.S. Liquidity Factor ETF (VFLQ) is the first of its kind: No other ETF or mutual fund explicitly targets the liquidity factor." And as I write this Morningstar is showing only $15 m illion-with-an-m in the...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 61
Views: 3881

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

Tangentially, in my cursory clicking around and reading names of fund managers at Vanguard, I thought I noticed that "Villanova" comes up a lot. Is that a misperception or does Vanguard like Villanova grads?
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block Deluxs 2018 doesn't include Schedule D?
Replies: 14
Views: 885

Re: H&R Block Deluxs 2018 doesn't include Schedule D?

The Mac application version I downloaded a couple of days ago includes Schedule D in "deluxe." I would hope they have parity across platforms with regard to what is in "deluxe." If not, shame on them. This is the exact version: https://imgur.com/t5h6jc3.jpg The Schedule D is listed and it's really t...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the true expense of buying an ETF vs a mutual fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 810

Re: What is the true expense of buying an ETF vs a mutual fund?

It's a difficult question to answer, because it is more in the nature of a risk , not an expense . It's usually a microscopic and negligible risk. A key difference between a mutual fund and an ETF is that you don't directly buy or sell mutual funds on the market; you buy them from the fund company a...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 61
Views: 3881

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

MJW wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:07 pm
Elysium wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:42 pm
Talent matters in science and engineering, healthcare, etc, real hard sciences that can advance human progress. Not for a junk science like finance and economics.
Whoa.
Image
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 61
Views: 3881

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

Aren't the funds all tiny? According to Vanguard, the Quantitative Equity Group manages $32 billion in assets... I don't have a comprehensive list of which funds they manage, but... I think this represents all the ETFs and mutual funds managed by the Quantitative Equity Group (numbers represent the...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 61
Views: 3881

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

Aren't the funds all tiny? According to Vanguard, the Quantitative Equity Group manages $32 billion in assets... I don't have a comprehensive list of which funds they manage, but... Managed Payout $1.9 billion Market Neutral $1.7 billion Alternative Strategies $319 million Strategic Equity $7 billi...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?
Replies: 34
Views: 2071

Re: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?

...Gray was speaking about the value FACTOR over the past ten years, not some random FUND. Is he right? Almost certainly... His words: Below is a chart of the past recent performance (five years) on generic small value/growth (“value”) and small winner/loser (“momentum”) portfolios from Ken French’...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 36
Views: 2740

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

Following my own curiosity, I re-did the charts to show performance before expenses . That is, I added (geometric sum) the stated expense ratio to the stated total return. Notice that according to Larry Swedroe, the SEC definition of the expense ratios for the Style Premia Alternatives fund and prob...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 137
Views: 7362

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

Luck. From the start of the first international index in 1970, the MSCI EAFE index, there have been no systematic differences that are big enough to overcome the differences you can see due to choice of endpoints within that time period. Over longer periods of time, e.g. the Dimson & Marsh data back...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?
Replies: 34
Views: 2071

Re: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?

No, the S&P 500 is not "a bet on the mega cap growth section of the market." It's just a bet on the market , period. (They muddy the waters by talking about "the S&P 500," rather than the total market index most Bogleheads probably use--but since the S&P 500 constitutes 80% of the market, there's a ...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?
Replies: 18
Views: 1841

Re: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?

To the extent that the proposition "stocks become less risky the longer you hold them" is true, it's true simply because of the Law of Large Numbers applied to successive periodic returns. That's still applicable even if prices are a random walk. No, it's not. The law of large numbers says that the...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 61
Views: 3881

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

Agree that the snark isn't helping anything. The questions I'd ask is "do I use anything managed by the Vanguard Quantitative Equity Group?" And, "if not, does this departure indicate a problem at Vanguard that will eventually infect the products I do use?" According to Vanguard , Vanguard managed $...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1511
Views: 213596

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Thanks Nisiprius, What’s the timeframe on that, since the inception of QSPIX? Yes. Certainly the improvements to a portfolio are incremental, not revolutionary. But as you said improvement nonetheless. I can see why most everyone looking at the chart might think adding that one fund is not worth it...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?
Replies: 18
Views: 1841

Re: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?

It's probably not a myth, but it's probably like quantum "vacuum energy." It exists, but there's no known way to harness it for any practical purpose. I like the conclusions Cowles and Jones came to in 1937 (Cowles 3rd, Alfred E. and Herbert E. Jones (1937). "Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1511
Views: 213596

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

...You missed Inertia Man’s point. It’s not TSM/TBM v. QSPIX, it’s what adding QSPIX to a TSM/TBM portfolio does to the portfolio as a whole... Let's explore this. Let's grant that to date, QSPIX has, in fact , had returns that have not been "equity-like" but can be fairly described as "60/40-like....
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 134
Views: 10194

Re: Build America Bonds in ESG Core-4?

vineviz wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:20 am
...I looked up the top 10 bonds in BAB and the vast majority are Build America Bonds. If I can do a mass lookup of CUSIPS I’ll report back with stats...
Thanks. How do you recognize them?
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 134
Views: 10194

Build America Bonds in ESG Core-4?

https://imgur.com/drClc50.png The ESG Core-4 portfolio calls for a 20% allocation to "Build America Bonds & US Government Securities." Being listed first suggests that Build America Bonds are the preferred asset for implementing this portion of the portfolio. Build America Bonds are no longer being...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do BHs care about real asset value or stay in course?
Replies: 13
Views: 1141

Re: Do BHs care about real asset value or stay in course?

I believe in staying the course, because the people who talk about things like "real asset value" haven't convinced me that they can do any better than you can do by staying the course.
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions
Replies: 29
Views: 1742

Re: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions

Momentum has been studied extensively since 1993, when the original paper “Momentum” was published by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman. That was "the original paper?" What about Cowles 3rd, Alfred E. and Herbert E. Jones (1937), "Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action," Econ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Savings Account
Replies: 28
Views: 1548

Re: High yield savings vs. Bonds

I understand the differences between Savings and Bonds and that Bonds historically have better returns than a Savings or Money Market however from what I can tell right now: 1. Rising interest rates will probably cause Bonds to be a worse investment in the near future. Wrong. It's not that simple. ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portability of Fidelity ZERO
Replies: 22
Views: 2360

Re: Portability of Fidelity ZERO

Is fund portability something to be considered when choosing funds? It is, but... ...More generally, how does one determine whether a given mutual fund at one brokerage can be transferred to another brokerage?... ...there isn't a great answer to this. There isn't a guaranteed method, the obvious ap...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you all staying the course?
Replies: 114
Views: 6847

Re: Are you all staying the course?

I am retired, and risk-averse by temperament, and at much less than 100% stocks. I am staying the course. In particular, I am not taking any actions in response to losses in the market value of my bond funds, either. Vanguard calculates my personal rate of return to be 4% for the last three years, 0...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 36
Views: 2740

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

For laughs, I did the same analysis on Vanguard's stock funds, using those described by Vanguard as either "US stocks" or "international stocks," "active management," and "investor shares." For the time period, I used fund inception if Vanguard shows a benchmark value from fund inception; otherwise,...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12853

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Instead of picking stocks, factor investing picks categories of stocks. It does so in a sophisticated way--it isn't just trying to pick categories of stocks that will outperform the rest of the market (although the way some people talk about small-caps you might think so). But it still relies on fin...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 36
Views: 2740

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

I corrected a small error in the original charts. QCELX had been incorrectly compared to the Russell 2000 and Russell 2000 Growth, instead of the Russell 1000.
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected nominal return in 80/20 stock/bond fund for next 10 years
Replies: 10
Views: 1918

Re: Expected nominal return in 80/20 stock/bond fund for next 10 years

The reference book* I'm looking at doesn't have results for 80/20, and the "stocks" and "bonds" it is using would not correspond perfectly to any current mutual fund, but it is showing, for ten-year holding periods, 1926-2014, the return of a 90/10 portfolio ranged from -0.25% to +18.52% the return ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?
Replies: 6
Views: 924

Re: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?

There's virtually no difference between holding the global cap weights--currently about 50/50--in VGTSX/VTSAX versus holding VTWSX. The expense ratios are so low that I don't think the difference there matters either. I don't want to get into the frequently-debated question of US versus internationa...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12853

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Here's something odd about the AQR fund family. Let's look at all of their small-cap funds and their Morningstar classifications: ASMOX small growth ATSMX small growth QSMLX small blend QSRIX small blend QSSLX small blend So whatever happened to the theory that small-cap value is Good and small-grow...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12853

Re: A reminder: Stay away from

...A total US stock market fund is exposed only to one factor, right?... It's perverse to call it "only one factor." The market factor is special. It's qualitatively different from the other factors. To take one example, we can get 1.00 loading on the market factor with a long-only portfolio. As a ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7841
Views: 1609604

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:30 am
Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this?
The news that stocks were up significantly last week?
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quick Turnaround for Passport Applications (No Payment for Expedited Processing)
Replies: 18
Views: 1622

Re: Quick Turnaround for Passport Applications (No Payment for Expedited Processing)

Same here, about a month or so ago. I didn't actually record dates, but it didn't take long. The new passports came first, and then the returned older passports separately three or four days later. Of course, our renewals were just about as simple as they could possibly be. We already had passports,...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 36
Views: 2740

AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

I was sufficiently intrigued by bjr89's comment, on AQR funds, that "they pretty much all underperform their benchmarks." Eventually it got to me, to the point where I was willing to point and click and copy and paste fifty-six times in order to find out the answer. As is so often the case, it's tri...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is NOW a good time to start ETF saving journey?
Replies: 13
Views: 1333

Re: Is NOW a good time to start ETF saving journey?

I remember that the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now. I was actually going to quote that saying when I read your thread title. However, given current market hopping up and down wouldn't it be better to wait for few months and start from more stable ground? No....
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?
Replies: 14
Views: 736

Re: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?

They aren’t great investments, but other forum members are wrong to compare the returns of an FDIC insured CD to the S&P 500. I don't know which forum members you are referring to, but I thought that I, personally, had gone to great pains, to the point of providing charts , to show exactly how the ...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?
Replies: 14
Views: 736

Re: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?

P.S. Needless to say, you will find it hard to find out much about the "GS Momentum Builder Multi-Asset 5 ER Index." But from 11/15/2013 to date, it has grown $100 to $118.23 and thus would have grown $10,000 to $11,823. I don't know how that filters through all the other CD machinery and rules (you...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?
Replies: 14
Views: 736

Re: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?

If you have been give a vague impression that you can get almost all the return of the stock market, without taking any risk of losses in the stock market, then stop right away. You know that's too good to be true, don't you? So, you know that even if they have not stated anything factually inaccura...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lowest Cost GPS-Capable Device for Senior Citizen
Replies: 18
Views: 1011

Re: Lowest Cost GPS-Capable Device for Senior Citizen

I have a standalone Garmin nüvi 2555 I bought for about $100 circa 2015. I've gotten free map updates as advertised. It's been great. It is far superior to the built-in nav in the car we bought in 2016 and I always bring it with us on trips so that if--rather when--the built-in nav seems crazy we ha...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12853

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

...For any market neutral strategy, I tend to think T-bill is the bogey. I do not know what do they use... According to the prospectus, ...The Adviser, on average, will target an annualized volatility level for the Fund of 10%. Volatility is a statistical measurement of the dispersion of returns of...