Search found 36125 matches

by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block Deluxs 2018 doesn't include Schedule D?
Replies: 13
Views: 503

Re: H&R Block Deluxs 2018 doesn't include Schedule D?

It's too soon to be complaining about tax software. None of the vendors have a finished product yet. I remember Ye Olde Days when I had a slowish internet connection, so I didn't want to deal with downloading anything too big. These were the days of modems with voice phone lines, and in addition to...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 58
Views: 3424

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

what do folks think of the vanguard liquidity factor etf And Vanguard says proudly "Vanguard U.S. Liquidity Factor ETF (VFLQ) is the first of its kind: No other ETF or mutual fund explicitly targets the liquidity factor." And as I write this Morningstar is showing only $15 m illion-with-an-m in the...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 58
Views: 3424

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

Tangentially, in my cursory clicking around and reading names of fund managers at Vanguard, I thought I noticed that "Villanova" comes up a lot. Is that a misperception or does Vanguard like Villanova grads?
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block Deluxs 2018 doesn't include Schedule D?
Replies: 13
Views: 503

Re: H&R Block Deluxs 2018 doesn't include Schedule D?

The Mac application version I downloaded a couple of days ago includes Schedule D in "deluxe." I would hope they have parity across platforms with regard to what is in "deluxe." If not, shame on them. This is the exact version: https://imgur.com/t5h6jc3.jpg The Schedule D is listed and it's really t...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the true expense of buying an ETF vs a mutual fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 688

Re: What is the true expense of buying an ETF vs a mutual fund?

It's a difficult question to answer, because it is more in the nature of a risk , not an expense . It's usually a microscopic and negligible risk. A key difference between a mutual fund and an ETF is that you don't directly buy or sell mutual funds on the market; you buy them from the fund company a...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 58
Views: 3424

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

MJW wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:07 pm
Elysium wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:42 pm
Talent matters in science and engineering, healthcare, etc, real hard sciences that can advance human progress. Not for a junk science like finance and economics.
Whoa.
Image
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 58
Views: 3424

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

Aren't the funds all tiny? According to Vanguard, the Quantitative Equity Group manages $32 billion in assets... I don't have a comprehensive list of which funds they manage, but... I think this represents all the ETFs and mutual funds managed by the Quantitative Equity Group (numbers represent the...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 58
Views: 3424

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

Aren't the funds all tiny? According to Vanguard, the Quantitative Equity Group manages $32 billion in assets... I don't have a comprehensive list of which funds they manage, but... Managed Payout $1.9 billion Market Neutral $1.7 billion Alternative Strategies $319 million Strategic Equity $7 billi...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?
Replies: 27
Views: 1510

Re: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?

...Gray was speaking about the value FACTOR over the past ten years, not some random FUND. Is he right? Almost certainly... His words: Below is a chart of the past recent performance (five years) on generic small value/growth (“value”) and small winner/loser (“momentum”) portfolios from Ken French’...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 35
Views: 2533

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

Following my own curiosity, I re-did the charts to show performance before expenses . That is, I added (geometric sum) the stated expense ratio to the stated total return. Notice that according to Larry Swedroe, the SEC definition of the expense ratios for the Style Premia Alternatives fund and prob...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 54
Views: 3544

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

Luck. From the start of the first international index in 1970, the MSCI EAFE index, there have been no systematic differences that are big enough to overcome the differences you can see due to choice of endpoints within that time period. Over longer periods of time, e.g. the Dimson & Marsh data back...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?
Replies: 27
Views: 1510

Re: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?

No, the S&P 500 is not "a bet on the mega cap growth section of the market." It's just a bet on the market , period. (They muddy the waters by talking about "the S&P 500," rather than the total market index most Bogleheads probably use--but since the S&P 500 constitutes 80% of the market, there's a ...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?
Replies: 18
Views: 1740

Re: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?

To the extent that the proposition "stocks become less risky the longer you hold them" is true, it's true simply because of the Law of Large Numbers applied to successive periodic returns. That's still applicable even if prices are a random walk. No, it's not. The law of large numbers says that the...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 58
Views: 3424

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

Agree that the snark isn't helping anything. The questions I'd ask is "do I use anything managed by the Vanguard Quantitative Equity Group?" And, "if not, does this departure indicate a problem at Vanguard that will eventually infect the products I do use?" According to Vanguard , Vanguard managed $...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1504
Views: 212942

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Thanks Nisiprius, What’s the timeframe on that, since the inception of QSPIX? Yes. Certainly the improvements to a portfolio are incremental, not revolutionary. But as you said improvement nonetheless. I can see why most everyone looking at the chart might think adding that one fund is not worth it...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?
Replies: 18
Views: 1740

Re: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?

It's probably not a myth, but it's probably like quantum "vacuum energy." It exists, but there's no known way to harness it for any practical purpose. I like the conclusions Cowles and Jones came to in 1937 (Cowles 3rd, Alfred E. and Herbert E. Jones (1937). "Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1504
Views: 212942

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

...You missed Inertia Man’s point. It’s not TSM/TBM v. QSPIX, it’s what adding QSPIX to a TSM/TBM portfolio does to the portfolio as a whole... Let's explore this. Let's grant that to date, QSPIX has, in fact , had returns that have not been "equity-like" but can be fairly described as "60/40-like....
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 133
Views: 9978

Re: Build America Bonds in ESG Core-4?

vineviz wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:20 am
...I looked up the top 10 bonds in BAB and the vast majority are Build America Bonds. If I can do a mass lookup of CUSIPS I’ll report back with stats...
Thanks. How do you recognize them?
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 133
Views: 9978

Build America Bonds in ESG Core-4?

https://imgur.com/drClc50.png The ESG Core-4 portfolio calls for a 20% allocation to "Build America Bonds & US Government Securities." Being listed first suggests that Build America Bonds are the preferred asset for implementing this portion of the portfolio. Build America Bonds are no longer being...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do BHs care about real asset value or stay in course?
Replies: 13
Views: 1086

Re: Do BHs care about real asset value or stay in course?

I believe in staying the course, because the people who talk about things like "real asset value" haven't convinced me that they can do any better than you can do by staying the course.
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions
Replies: 29
Views: 1711

Re: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions

Momentum has been studied extensively since 1993, when the original paper “Momentum” was published by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman. That was "the original paper?" What about Cowles 3rd, Alfred E. and Herbert E. Jones (1937), "Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action," Econ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Savings Account
Replies: 28
Views: 1528

Re: High yield savings vs. Bonds

I understand the differences between Savings and Bonds and that Bonds historically have better returns than a Savings or Money Market however from what I can tell right now: 1. Rising interest rates will probably cause Bonds to be a worse investment in the near future. Wrong. It's not that simple. ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portability of Fidelity ZERO
Replies: 22
Views: 2332

Re: Portability of Fidelity ZERO

Is fund portability something to be considered when choosing funds? It is, but... ...More generally, how does one determine whether a given mutual fund at one brokerage can be transferred to another brokerage?... ...there isn't a great answer to this. There isn't a guaranteed method, the obvious ap...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you all staying the course?
Replies: 114
Views: 6789

Re: Are you all staying the course?

I am retired, and risk-averse by temperament, and at much less than 100% stocks. I am staying the course. In particular, I am not taking any actions in response to losses in the market value of my bond funds, either. Vanguard calculates my personal rate of return to be 4% for the last three years, 0...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 35
Views: 2533

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

For laughs, I did the same analysis on Vanguard's stock funds, using those described by Vanguard as either "US stocks" or "international stocks," "active management," and "investor shares." For the time period, I used fund inception if Vanguard shows a benchmark value from fund inception; otherwise,...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 169
Views: 12265

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Instead of picking stocks, factor investing picks categories of stocks. It does so in a sophisticated way--it isn't just trying to pick categories of stocks that will outperform the rest of the market (although the way some people talk about small-caps you might think so). But it still relies on fin...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 35
Views: 2533

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

I corrected a small error in the original charts. QCELX had been incorrectly compared to the Russell 2000 and Russell 2000 Growth, instead of the Russell 1000.
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected nominal return in 80/20 stock/bond fund for next 10 years
Replies: 10
Views: 1904

Re: Expected nominal return in 80/20 stock/bond fund for next 10 years

The reference book* I'm looking at doesn't have results for 80/20, and the "stocks" and "bonds" it is using would not correspond perfectly to any current mutual fund, but it is showing, for ten-year holding periods, 1926-2014, the return of a 90/10 portfolio ranged from -0.25% to +18.52% the return ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?
Replies: 6
Views: 910

Re: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?

There's virtually no difference between holding the global cap weights--currently about 50/50--in VGTSX/VTSAX versus holding VTWSX. The expense ratios are so low that I don't think the difference there matters either. I don't want to get into the frequently-debated question of US versus internationa...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 169
Views: 12265

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Here's something odd about the AQR fund family. Let's look at all of their small-cap funds and their Morningstar classifications: ASMOX small growth ATSMX small growth QSMLX small blend QSRIX small blend QSSLX small blend So whatever happened to the theory that small-cap value is Good and small-grow...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 169
Views: 12265

Re: A reminder: Stay away from

...A total US stock market fund is exposed only to one factor, right?... It's perverse to call it "only one factor." The market factor is special. It's qualitatively different from the other factors. To take one example, we can get 1.00 loading on the market factor with a long-only portfolio. As a ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7839
Views: 1608808

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:30 am
Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this?
The news that stocks were up significantly last week?
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quick Turnaround for Passport Applications (No Payment for Expedited Processing)
Replies: 18
Views: 1616

Re: Quick Turnaround for Passport Applications (No Payment for Expedited Processing)

Same here, about a month or so ago. I didn't actually record dates, but it didn't take long. The new passports came first, and then the returned older passports separately three or four days later. Of course, our renewals were just about as simple as they could possibly be. We already had passports,...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 35
Views: 2533

AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

I was sufficiently intrigued by bjr89's comment, on AQR funds, that "they pretty much all underperform their benchmarks." Eventually it got to me, to the point where I was willing to point and click and copy and paste fifty-six times in order to find out the answer. As is so often the case, it's tri...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is NOW a good time to start ETF saving journey?
Replies: 13
Views: 1324

Re: Is NOW a good time to start ETF saving journey?

I remember that the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now. I was actually going to quote that saying when I read your thread title. However, given current market hopping up and down wouldn't it be better to wait for few months and start from more stable ground? No....
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?
Replies: 14
Views: 729

Re: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?

They aren’t great investments, but other forum members are wrong to compare the returns of an FDIC insured CD to the S&P 500. I don't know which forum members you are referring to, but I thought that I, personally, had gone to great pains, to the point of providing charts , to show exactly how the ...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?
Replies: 14
Views: 729

Re: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?

P.S. Needless to say, you will find it hard to find out much about the "GS Momentum Builder Multi-Asset 5 ER Index." But from 11/15/2013 to date, it has grown $100 to $118.23 and thus would have grown $10,000 to $11,823. I don't know how that filters through all the other CD machinery and rules (you...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?
Replies: 14
Views: 729

Re: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?

If you have been give a vague impression that you can get almost all the return of the stock market, without taking any risk of losses in the stock market, then stop right away. You know that's too good to be true, don't you? So, you know that even if they have not stated anything factually inaccura...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lowest Cost GPS-Capable Device for Senior Citizen
Replies: 18
Views: 1008

Re: Lowest Cost GPS-Capable Device for Senior Citizen

I have a standalone Garmin nüvi 2555 I bought for about $100 circa 2015. I've gotten free map updates as advertised. It's been great. It is far superior to the built-in nav in the car we bought in 2016 and I always bring it with us on trips so that if--rather when--the built-in nav seems crazy we ha...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 169
Views: 12265

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

...For any market neutral strategy, I tend to think T-bill is the bogey. I do not know what do they use... According to the prospectus, ...The Adviser, on average, will target an annualized volatility level for the Fund of 10%. Volatility is a statistical measurement of the dispersion of returns of...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors
Replies: 15
Views: 2926

Re: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors

17.... I asked to 137 graduate students the following question: “For the following 10 years, do you prefer an investment with an annual return of 16% and a Sharpe ratio of 0,4 or another investment with an annual return of 13% and a Sharpe ratio of 1,3?” All of them (the 137 graduate students) pref...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Momentum (a new toy/target?)
Replies: 8
Views: 779

Re: Factor Momentum (a new toy/target?)

And meanwhile... https://imgur.com/oDfDpBk.png in a 2016 story referencing this paper: The Siren Song of Factor Timing Everyone seems to want to time factors. Often the first question after an initial discussion of factors is “ok, what’s the current outlook?” And the common answer, “the same as usua...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Index Fund Admiral Shares Question
Replies: 22
Views: 2430

Re: Vanguard Index Fund Admiral Shares Question

I don't like your hypothetical. But given the choice, I'd choose Total Stock Market, for the same reason I exchanged my actual holdings in Vanguard 500 index for Total Stock Market back in, maybe 2003 or so. I looked back at my reasons for choosing 500 Index in the first place. My reason was, as far...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1504
Views: 212942

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

...If QSPIX has "equity like expected return,"... I believe people say that's a straw man whenever you do it...because it clearly is. I was quoting what Random Walker had said: "pre-tax equity-like expected return." He like Matjen above, thinks a 60/40 portfolio is a reasonable yardstick... Fine, t...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1504
Views: 212942

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

If QSPIX has "pre tax equity like expected returns" than the S&P 500 would be an appropriate benchmark, not the "three month Treasury bills" AQR uses I want to pin you down Nisi on why you would select the S&P to represent all of equities? Is that appropriate or is that just the best performing equ...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10526

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:27 am
...Do you honestly think that people work for decades on behalf of their society or country? Come on...
Yes. I do. I honestly think that. I really do. Some people.
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Amazon says TurboTax 2018 will be released November 12
Replies: 61
Views: 6335

Re: Amazon says TurboTax 2018 will be released November 12

I use H&R Block's software on a Mac, and the 2018 version was available and I downloaded it last night. I think all the forms I need are there. I'm sure Intuit won't be far behind.
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Natural Disasters and Annuities
Replies: 3
Views: 523

Re: Natural Disasters and Annuities

To add to Alex's excellent answer: Annuities are related to life insurance . Life insurance companies are kept separate from property and casualty insurance companies. They may be owned by a single holding company and marketed under a single brand name, but legally they are separate businesses. If y...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 169
Views: 12265

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

...S&P is not a fair comparison to managed futures... Very well, what is a fair comparison to managed futures? (Grumble: advocates for alternatives seem to be positively evasive about this. I can't accept the idea that alternatives "are their own benchmark," I don't even know what that means. Alter...