Search found 36619 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Jan 22, 2019 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 73
Views: 5913

Re: Comparing DFA and Vanguard Funds. What about DFA Advisor fees?

nisiprius: Thank you for the charts comparing DFA and Vanguard fund deviations and returns. To be fair , I believe it is important, for every comparison of DFA returns, to subtract the cost of the advisor that DFA requires for individual accounts. If DFA advisor costs are included, how would this a...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 73
Views: 5913

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

I asked for a good example of a large-cap value fund, acceptable to factor advocates, and proposed three candidates. Random Walker liked DFLVX, dkturner liked DODGX. Introduction , Appendix: Methodology Brief notes: 1) In these Monte Carlo simulations, the return for a given month is varied by rando...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fake Passive Investors
Replies: 51
Views: 2102

Re: Fake Passive Investors

All this "you're not really passive" stuff strikes me as being the kind of thing salespeople say in order to counter objections and sales resistance. Statement: "I don't drink alcohol." Counter: "Do you drink non-alcoholic beer? Reply: "Sure. Counter: "What kind?" Reply: "Sharp's." Counter: "Sharp's...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What active management stock funds would you own?
Replies: 84
Views: 5406

Re: What active management stock funds would you own?

1) I use two of Vanguard's bond funds, and one of them--the TIPS fund, VAIPX, Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities--is actively managed. But it has been virtually indistinguishable from the TIPS index. 2) I would consider Vanguard Wellesley Income, and I would consider the Vanguard Managed Payout...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 22, 2019 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 73
Views: 5913

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

Hedgefundie, Random Walker, anyone else... I want to try a "matter-scatter" chart using the best possible mutual fund for the comparison. So, I want to use my personal method of analysis--whose value has been questioned--and I want to use a real-world actual mutual funds, but since there are said to...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 73
Views: 5913

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

Larry Swedroe said "I don't know what world the Bogleheads are living in, declaring value has performed miserably." However, in 2015, in an article entitled Value Premium Goes Missing , he wrote: As you can see, in terms of annualized returns, there has been, on average, no realized value premium ov...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 73
Views: 5913

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

Larry sent me this PM in response to my posting of John C. Bogle's chart: telltale chart is sadly total CRAP As much respect as I have for Saint Jack that chart is literally garbarge because it shows performance of active funds. The research shows that active growth funds hold value stocks and more ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement plan “improvements” (Fidelity vs. TIAA)
Replies: 18
Views: 1057

Re: Retirement plan “improvements” (Fidelity vs. TIAA)

I was at an employer for fourteen years whose 401(k) was managed by Fidelity. My previous employer had been a nonprofit that had access to TIAA-CREF. Fidelity isn't perfect, but IMHO they ain't bad. And while I had warm feelings about TIAA-CREF prior to Herb Allison taking the helm in 2002, afterwar...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 73
Views: 5913

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

The late John C. Bogle argued that all such premia are rapidly attenuated by mean reversion: https://imgur.com/58mgkXc.jpg This is one of the charts he presented in his essay on "The Telltale Chart" and the chapter "On Mean Reversion" in Common Sense on Mutual Funds . The chart above from the tenth ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?
Replies: 18
Views: 2365

Re: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?

aristotelian wrote:
Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:53 am
Agreed. Rising rates are bad for owners of current bonds but good for buyers if new bonds. A whole decade of low interest rates is not great for bond investors, except to the extent it implies low inflation.
Hear, hear!
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?
Replies: 18
Views: 2365

Re: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?

Yes and no. The situation is clear enough, the only thing that is puzzling is the kind of language that's used to describe it. Exactly the same kind of language and rhetoric is used for bonds dropping 10% as is used for stocks dropping 50%. I don't get it and never have gotten it. My theories are th...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Jettison QSPIX?
Replies: 26
Views: 1512

Re: Jettison QSPIX?

grok87 wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:55 pm
...in unconventional success swensen argues for tips and real estate as assets worth adding to the conventional stock/bond mix in part because of the risk of periods like the stagflationary 70s/80s...
Neither of which is contained in QSPIX. Just saying.
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to buy CR2032 batteries?
Replies: 43
Views: 2995

Re: Where to buy CR2032 batteries?

I've bought CR2032's from an online vendor named BatteryBob, in quantities of about ten or fifteen (i.e. two or three strips of five batteries). I've also seen them in dollar stores on racks in packages of a dozen or so. The cost savings from paying a buck each, versus five bucks each at a typical d...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is index investing better than other quantitative strategies?
Replies: 38
Views: 3528

Re: Why is index investing better than other quantitative strategies?

I don't think Heaviside's comment is relevant. If someone asks you to solve (say) X^2 + 2X + 3 = 123, I can produce the solution "10" by applying a formula from high school algebra that I might or might not be able to prove; by guessing; or by using a Ouija board. Whatever I do, the solution can be ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any mutual fund or group of stocks which pay dividends
Replies: 10
Views: 843

Re: Any mutual fund or group of stocks which pay dividends

I don't personally believe in the supposed advantages of dividend stock investing. That's a long debate and I won't get into it here. There are two Vanguard funds that are specifically focussed on providing high dividend income. That is, if you wanted to invest in stocks, spend the dividends, and no...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Evaluating Job Offer - Longer Commute
Replies: 40
Views: 1757

Re: Evaluating Job Offer - Longer Commute

About fifteen years of my career involved about a 75-minute commute by train and subway (with the ability to read or snooze en route). About twenty involved a 50-minute commute by car under "normal" conditions, often extending unpredictably and unexpected into a 75 to 90-minute commute, and perhaps ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Jettison QSPIX?
Replies: 26
Views: 1512

Re: Jettison QSPIX?

1) What percentage of your portfolio is it? 2) Have you actually lost money in it yet, or has it just made you less money than you hoped? 3) If you had not bought it, would would that money have been invested in, and how would it have done? Personally, I wouldn't have even considered purchasing this...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is index investing better than other quantitative strategies?
Replies: 38
Views: 3528

Re: Why is index investing better than other quantitative strategies?

A Google Image search on the image finds me that chart in Seeking Alpha, Technically Speaking: Selling The 200-Day Moving Average . (Who is "selling" it, and to whom?) 1) That chart is "capital appreciation only" (i.e. price). Why? That's wrong . The chart below is $1000 invested in the S&P 500 in 1...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is index investing better than other quantitative strategies?
Replies: 38
Views: 3528

Re: Why is index investing better than other quantitative strategies?

...I believe Meb Faber's paper that I read a long time ago is what got the idea in my head... Mebane Faber (I'm not a first-name basis with him) has written a lot of things. He writes well. He seems to be promoting some new strategy every three years or so. He never seems to explain whatever happen...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is index investing better than other quantitative strategies?
Replies: 38
Views: 3528

Re: Why is index investing better than other quantitative strategies?

Imagine a world with no index funds. If I asked you to come up with a successful algorithm for investing in the market, why would you pick owning the top 500 market cap stocks weighted by market cap? (Or any other broad index). Two tiny nitpicks: the S&P 500 is not the top 500 market cap stocks, it...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does 20% extra of portfolio allocated to equities get you?
Replies: 112
Views: 6498

Re: What does 20% extra of portfolio allocated to equities get you?

I don't believe logic-chopping about the definition of risk matters much. Things that are risky in one way are apt to be risky in other ways as well. I'm really surprised to hear this from you nisi because it can be easily demonstrated to be false. Historically, T-bills have been the essentially lo...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does 20% extra of portfolio allocated to equities get you?
Replies: 112
Views: 6498

Re: What does 20% extra of portfolio allocated to equities get you?

...I could be wrong, but I think this is equating risk with volatility.... Well, I suggest that you tell us some numeric measure of risk you prefer, and see how the LifeStrategy funds compare with each other according to your favorite measure. My favorite measure is "maximum drawdown." So I looked ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I left Wealthfront
Replies: 61
Views: 15860

Re: Why I left Wealthfront

...They've changed their business plans enough times that there's no telling what it will be next year... This, to me, is the salient feature of Wealthfront and a good reason to avoid them. The company began in 2008, under the name "Ka-Ching!;" NYT headline, "Site Lets Investors See and Copy Expert...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does 20% extra of portfolio allocated to equities get you?
Replies: 112
Views: 6498

Re: What does 20% extra of portfolio allocated to equities get you?

Instead of looking at return, as if it were guaranteed, let's at least take a cursory look at risk-adjusted return as measured by Sharpe and Sortino ratios. Source for VASIX Source for VSCGX, VSMGX, VASGX VASGX (about 20/80), Sharpe 0.84, Sortino 1.28 VSCGX (about 40/60), Sharpe 0.64, Sortino 0.93 V...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is using an Asset Allocation Mental Accounting?
Replies: 46
Views: 2053

Re: Is using an Asset Allocation Mental Accounting?

TheTimeLord, I'm not sure where you're going on this. I will say, and have said, that during 2008-2009 I found that I was thinking of the downturn, not as a percentage loss, and not as a dollar loss, but as a loss of years of patient savings and progress toward our goal. The experience was not "my 4...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at equal weighting as we bid farewell to EQWS
Replies: 30
Views: 1213

Re: A look at equal weighting as we bid farewell to EQWS

There are choices in between cap-weighting and equal weighting. The discussions of cap-weighting versus various departures from cap-weighing are interesting and complicated. My point was not to assert that cap-weighting is the only logical choice, it was that equal-weighting, specifically , is an il...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at equal weighting as we bid farewell to EQWS
Replies: 30
Views: 1213

Re: A look at equal weighting as we bid farewell to EQWS

I am not a fan of equal-weighting as a core strategy, mostly because of the implementation challenges (i.e. higher portfolio turnover and the associated costs, especially for smaller and less-liquid stocks). Having said that, the characterization of cap-weighting as "not arbitrary" and equal-weight...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at equal weighting as we bid farewell to EQWS
Replies: 30
Views: 1213

Re: A look at equal weighting as we bid farewell to EQWS

...Thank you (!) for including labels on the graph itself. I hadn't realized that was even possible... Nor I, Vineviz, how did you do it? Your link takes me to a screen labelled "Fund Performance Analysis," but "Fund Performance Analysis isn't a tool I see available on the PortfolioVisualizer home ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at equal weighting as we bid farewell to EQWS
Replies: 30
Views: 1213

Re: A look at equal weighting as we bid farewell to EQWS

From above: " However, it is very noticeable that the equal-weighted small-cap ETFs have disastrously underperformed cap-weighted funds. First, we will look just at EQWS so that we can get a range of years that includes 2008-2009. EQWS, blue; NAESX, the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund, red ." Is the ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at equal weighting as we bid farewell to EQWS
Replies: 30
Views: 1213

A look at equal weighting as we bid farewell to EQWS

As the PowerShares Russell 2000 Equal Weighted ETF, EQWS, enters its last days, we have our last chance to use it to take look at the "equal weighting" strategy. (Disclosure, I think "equal weighting" is an absurd strategy). First, let it be noted that I think the name of this fund and the index it ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 118
Views: 10271

Re: Tributes to Jack Bogle

Vanguard has a nice tribute page... wonderful collection of photographs of John C. Bogle at different ages: John C. Bogle: A look back at the life of Vanguard's founder Interesting detail to me: At Mr. Bogle's urging, the firm diversified its product lineup in 1958 with the introduction of the all-e...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: PRHSX (T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund) vs VHT (Vanguard Health Care ETF)
Replies: 12
Views: 752

Re: PRHSX (T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund) vs VHT (Vanguard Health Care ETF)

Since you want to make a sector bet, you presumably have some rationale behind your decision to overweight that sector. State your reasons for thinking that stock in health care companies will be better, in some way, than other sectors... you don't need to post them, just be sure you know what they ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 118
Views: 10271

Re: Tributes to Jack Bogle

Helaine Olen in The Washington Post: John Bogle made investors richer — and the financial industry poorer . He exposed to the masses the lie that is market timing, demonstrating that investors who didn’t seek to beat stock market indexes and instead simply match them would do better in the end than ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Giving Amazon Kindle books or gift cards from the US to Mexico?
Replies: 1
Views: 131

Giving Amazon Kindle books or gift cards from the US to Mexico?

I tried to do a nice thing and created a nuisance. I'm not interested in trying to resolve the problem with what I did, let's write off what's spent and move on, but I'd like suggestions, based on personal experience , on what might actually work. I live in the US. My Amazon account is at amazon.com...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government shutdown and US Treasuries
Replies: 14
Views: 2073

Re: Government shutdown and US Treasuries

S&P cut its rating on US Treasuries from AAA to AA+ in 2011, and has kept it there (it's still at AA+), while A. M. Best, Fitch, and Moody's kept it at AAA. At about that time, Vanguard--probably others, haven't paid much attention--began describing Treasuries as in a separate category called "U. S....
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you keep a calendar?
Replies: 63
Views: 2993

Re: How do you keep a calendar?

My wife and I use a paper calendar which we hang in the kitchen. It is the only thing that works for us. By choice, an At-A-Glance or other office-supply-company calendar that has a) enough space to write on, and b) non-glossy surfaces that take pencil and accept erasures. They seem wildly overprice...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10165
Views: 1789612

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
"Well, it looks like the BM is over...
Seriously, do people use BM as an initialism for "bull market?"
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Differences in Investment Approach
Replies: 46
Views: 1577

Re: Differences in Investment Approach

Contentious topics also include personalities. For example, the opinions, writings, and press interviews of (in no particular order) gurus Dave Ramsey, Meb Faber, Jeremy Grantham and GMO, DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, Marc Faber (Boomdoomgloom), Ray Dalio ("Risk Parity" strategy), Paul Merriman (st...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Differences in Investment Approach
Replies: 46
Views: 1577

Re: Differences in Investment Approach

"Skinflint" means what it says. For example, does a true Boglehead merely seek "low enough " expense ratios in mutual funds and ETFs? Or is a true Boglehead required to pick up pennies from the sidewalk, drive a 1979 Honda Civic, and lose sleep agonizing between Vanguard VTIAX with an 0.04% ER or Fi...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?
Replies: 62
Views: 4312

Re: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?

I use this chart only as a guide to what the industry regards as conservative, moderate, and aggressive allocations. This is a chart I made from numbers in a Morningstar article on how they benchmark target-date funds. I added "age in bonds" for comparison. This chart actually shows two things. Firs...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?
Replies: 62
Views: 4312

Re: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?

So, there was about one chance in seven that your stock holding would be worth less in purchasing power after seven years than at the beginning. Thanks for the detailed explanation! But if I set aside say 50k (I'm making this number up) for the downpayment money in something safe like cash for the ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 95
Views: 7402

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

I wouldn't stop being a Boglehead, but I would stop being a do-it-yourself investor if my financial life became too complicated to manage. I don't know where I would draw the line exactly, but I once read a sample CFP exam, and the last big essay-style question illustrated the kind of situation wher...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?
Replies: 62
Views: 4312

Re: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?

You said this is money you will need in 6-8 years. From 1927 through 2017, inclusive, there were 12 seven-year periods over which stocks lost real value (i.e. inflation-adjusted). The last three times were 1999-2005, 2000-2006, and 2002-2008 inclusive. There were a total of 83 such periods. So, ther...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Everyone Did The 3 Fund Vanguard Strategy, Would Vanguard Be Controlling US Companies?
Replies: 10
Views: 1422

Re: If Everyone Did The 3 Fund Vanguard Strategy, Would Vanguard Be Controlling US Companies?

With regard to "what if everybody indexed?" Imagine that it is 1861 and that you hear that John Wanamaker's in Philadelphia has put price tags on all of its items, and sells each item at the same price to everybody--fixed price, take it or leave it, no haggling. Then nine years later, you find that ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Everyone Did The 3 Fund Vanguard Strategy, Would Vanguard Be Controlling US Companies?
Replies: 10
Views: 1422

Re: If Everyone Did The 3 Fund Vanguard Strategy, Would Vanguard Be Controlling US Companies?

Where do you see anything that talks about a "three-fund Vanguard strategy?" Taylor Larimore's book, The Bogleheads' Guide to the Three-Fund Portfolio notes on page 49 that For many years after Jack Bogle introduced his three total market index funds, Vanguard was the only mutual fund company where ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle's Obituary From The Family
Replies: 43
Views: 11942

Re: Jack Bogle's Obituary From The Family

Gesu School's donation page

Blair Academy's donation page

Bryn Mawr Presbyterian Church's donation page, but obviously they weren't thinking of outside contributions as you first need to set up an account to do it electronically.
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 852
Views: 44639

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

I am the Bogle. I speak for low fees.

Image
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 118
Views: 10271

Re: Who Will Speak for US?

I was very pleased to see this come across my Facebook feed--I follow NPR but I don't think Facebook knows of my interest in Bogle. What pleased me is that it wasn't just Wall Street Journal news, it was news , period. And I was pleased by NPR's title. They got it. It wasn't "Bogle, Founder of Reall...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 1502

Re: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?

I do not use a small-cap or a small-cap value tilt. I believe that the "prime directive" is "stay the course." I think you will find that most factor advocates will agree and say something like Jared Kizer: Any transparent strategy, which applies to everything outlined in this piece, is capable of e...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 852
Views: 44639

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

I have to say that the first thing that went through my mind were these lines of poetry: But yet I know, where'er I go, That there hath past away a glory from the earth. With John C. Bogle's death, "there has past away a glory from the earth." (I understand that they don't really apply; the poet, Wi...