Search found 35487 matches

by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you go for annual Medicare preventive tests and screening?
Replies: 15
Views: 695

Re: Do you go for annual Medicare preventive tests and screening?

I always went for an "annual physical" and under (traditional) Medicare I go for my "annual wellness visit." I don't know what goes on behind the scenes with coding and so forth, but the only difference between my "wellness visits" and my former "physicals" is the addition of, perhaps, a fifteen-min...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn
Replies: 22
Views: 804

Re: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn

It seems to me that the Great Financial Crisis, which was idiosyncratically centered around value-type firms (i.e. banks), may not be a conclusive example. Were banks in the value index, by chance, in 2008? A pity that nobody told me in 2007 that the coming financial crisis was going to be idiosync...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn
Replies: 22
Views: 804

Re: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn

It seems to me that the Great Financial Crisis, which was idiosyncratically centered around value-type firms (i.e. banks), may not be a conclusive example. Were banks in the value index, by chance, in 2008? A pity that nobody told me in 2007 that the coming financial crisis was going to be idiosync...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn
Replies: 22
Views: 804

Re: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn

Here's data from the Fama-French Benchmark Portfolios Monthly, around the time of the 1929 crash. Decline from 8/31/1929, in order of least decline to worst decline. Large-cap growth had the least decline in 2008-2009, the worst decline in 2000-2002, and the least decline in 1929-1932. Make what you...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn
Replies: 22
Views: 804

Re: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn

Of course large growth did drop the most in the prior major bear market (early 2000s). Yes, it sure did. https://imgur.com/FfusMQg.png And it dropped the least in the woulda-been-a-bear-if-it-had-dropped-half-a-percent-more market of 2011. https://imgur.com/aENOBgA.png I'm working on 1926-1932.
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn
Replies: 22
Views: 804

Re: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn

...3) This shows that I know nothing. I would assume that large growth would drop the most... Not at all. You followed the scientific method. Assuming that you don't have the history in your head, you: formulated an hypothesis ("if this theory of mine is true, I expect large growth to drop the most...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 'Online Banking – School Me’ 2
Replies: 24
Views: 1415

Re: 'Online Banking – School Me’ 2

How do you get the medallion signature guarantee?
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn
Replies: 22
Views: 804

Re: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn

For some reason Morningstar claims to know of, but will not chart for me, the DFA US Large Cap Growth fund, DUSLX, but I can plot the Vanguard Growth Index, VIGAX. Despite not having "large-cap" in the name, VIGAX is in fact large-cap growth. As you can see... ... it (dark red) not only fell less th...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn
Replies: 22
Views: 804

Re: According to BKM, value and small firms may do worse in economic downturn

In 2008-2009: Source https://imgur.com/L431TP9.png Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSMX, plunged deeply, losing -52%. DFA US Micro Cap Portfolio, DFSCX, plunged even further, losing -57%. So, check. DFA US Large Cap Value Portfolio, also plunged even further, losing -60%. So, check and doub...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PCP Wants Full Charge Up Front [Primary Care Physician]
Replies: 52
Views: 2443

Re: PCP Wants Full Charge Up Front

I don't think it's appropriate for a primary care doctor. My doctors have never done this and I haven't yet heard any stories from other people. Furthermore, if it happened to me I would definitely call my insurance company and ask "can they do this?" because whatever the law is, it might be against...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Money Market Funds vs. Online Banks
Replies: 31
Views: 2145

Re: Money Market Funds vs. Online Banks

Quick guess. Without peeking, what do you think the US/international breakdown for the Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund? a) < 1% international b) 1-10%* international c) 10-30% international d) 30-50% international e) > 50% international? For the answer, refer to this page or drag mouse from here vv...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Fall of Consumer Reports
Replies: 44
Views: 6026

Re: The Fall of Consumer Reports

I call this new AD era the “Age of Misinformation” given the high rate of inaccurate, misleading, or flat out dead wrong information published online. Indeed. I knew something had changed when I was talking to a language companion in Spain, who mentioned that she never read newspapers or watched TV...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 'Online Banking – School Me’ 2
Replies: 24
Views: 1415

Re: 'Online Banking – School Me’ 2

Do you really think they don't have an office building they work in that you could go visit if you had to hunt them down? Whats the difference between that and a fancy storefront with deposit slips and bad lollipops? The difference is that the airfare to their office building in Glen Allen, Virgini...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why the Yale Endowment Hate? [Request for portfolio help]
Replies: 90
Views: 6279

Re: Why the Yale Endowment Hate?

The argument Swensen makes is that if there is deflation, then LT Treasuries are better than IT or ST Treasuries - think Japan like conditions. I haven't read Swensen's book and I probably should, but I continue to be completely, utterly, totally mystified as to why anyone with positive net worth t...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 'Online Banking – School Me’ 2
Replies: 24
Views: 1415

Re: 'Online Banking – School Me’ 2

...How can I get to a point that I feel comfortable sending my money off to something (just a www.website) I can’t touch?... As someone else said, wisely, you don't need to. It's your money. It's your choice. And more and more brick-and-mortar banks are offering electronic searches that are pretty ...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 'Online Banking – School Me’ 2
Replies: 24
Views: 1415

Re: 'Online Banking – School Me’ 2

Unfortunately, brick-and-mortar banks are "mystic and not real" too. If you go back to, let's say the early 1990s, at that time banks were all using electronic networks anyway, you just didn't have personal Internet access to it. So really, they were just a brick-and-mortar façade to give you the fe...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Money Market Funds vs. Online Banks
Replies: 31
Views: 2145

Re: Money Market Funds vs. Online Banks

There are subtle differences. How much they weigh in the balance is personal taste. 1) Money market funds do not carry FDIC deposit insurance and are not subject to banking regulations (though of course they are subject to SEC regulations). For thirty-seven years, everyone writing advice about money...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fitness band with excellent Android syncing?
Replies: 17
Views: 601

Re: Fitness band with excellent Android syncing?

Doesn't address the specific question of reliability of Android syncing. you clearly didnt read the article. there is a specific mention for Android users. :oops: I thought you were pointing to the top-rated device. You mean "Samsung Gear Fit2 Pro...It’s a particularly good pick for Android users?"
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3170
Views: 967442

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Jennet Conant was being interviewed on NPR and I suddenly realized that I'd just loved two of her books: The Irregulars, which is about the British spies who spied on the United States during World War II--it included the writers Ian Fleming and Roald Dahl; and Tuxedo Park , an incredible story I'd ...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Momentum ETF (VMOM). Any thoughts on it? [UK investor]
Replies: 27
Views: 1171

Re: Vanguard Momentum ETF (VMOM). Any thoughts on it? [UK investor]

...The AQR fund you mention is large cap; VMOM is more like mid cap; research shows that the momentum effect is more pronounced in smaller stocks... The BRWIX fund I mentioned first , the one with a 33-year track record, first of the charts, is a mid-cap fund. It failed to outperform either the S&P...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Fall of Consumer Reports
Replies: 44
Views: 6026

Re: The Fall of Consumer Reports

...I continue to enjoy things they do on medical issues. I still subscribe online and look at the print issue now and then in Costco while having a hot dog or at the bookstore or library. Largely nostalgia I suppose. For about five years I kept saying to myself "the product reviews aren't very usef...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Momentum ETF (VMOM). Any thoughts on it? [UK investor]
Replies: 27
Views: 1171

Re: Vanguard Momentum ETF (VMOM). Any thoughts on it? [UK investor]

...as for the question of implementing the strategy successfully in a fund, VMOM has beaten the market since inception - though admittedly it hasn't been round for long... Because of the phenomenon of "momentum crashes" which occur in bad market downturns, one would certainly not want to draw concl...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Momentum ETF (VMOM). Any thoughts on it? [UK investor]
Replies: 27
Views: 1171

Re: Vanguard Momentum ETF (VMOM). Any thoughts on it? [UK investor]

...I understand that momentum strategies have a good chance of doing better than the market in the long run... I'd like you to see if you can show us the specific reference that says this. I think you've let something get oversimplified through retelling. There are lots of articles and academic pap...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 135
Views: 9322

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Tell me the name of a mutual fund or ETF that directly invests in one- and two-family homes, is geographically diversified across the United States, qualifies as a "diversified" fund under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and affords me the benefits and protections of the 1940 act, including dail...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fitness band with excellent Android syncing?
Replies: 17
Views: 601

Re: Fitness band with excellent Android syncing?

The first, second, and third most important requirements are that it sync with Android. Reliably, easily, quickly, no problems, no fussing, every time, all the time. And with no pickiness about the precise phone brand or Android version (but FYI my phone is a Samsung running 6.0.1). Other desiderat...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fitness band with excellent Android syncing?
Replies: 17
Views: 601

Re: Fitness band with excellent Android syncing?

off topic but hopefully you are still getting some security updates for Android Marshmallow. Actually, I'm not. I've been wondering about that. I know I have automatic updates on, because I get application updates pushed from the Google store several times a week--but nothing for Android itself. Se...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fitness band with excellent Android syncing?
Replies: 17
Views: 601

Re: Fitness band with excellent Android syncing?

Doesn't address the specific question of reliability of Android syncing.
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fitness band with excellent Android syncing?
Replies: 17
Views: 601

Fitness band with excellent Android syncing?

The first, second, and third most important requirements are that it sync with Android. Reliably, easily, quickly, no problems, no fussing, every time, all the time. And with no pickiness about the precise phone brand or Android version (but FYI my phone is a Samsung running 6.0.1). Other desiderata...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Momentum ETF (VMOM). Any thoughts on it? [UK investor]
Replies: 27
Views: 1171

Re: Vanguard Momentum ETF (VMOM). Any thoughts on it? [UK investor]

...I understand that momentum strategies have a good chance of doing better than the market in the long run... I'd like you to see if you can show us the specific reference that says this. I think you've let something get oversimplified through retelling. In any case, the correct phrasing is probab...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Fall of Consumer Reports
Replies: 44
Views: 6026

Re: The Fall of Consumer Reports

It's sad, but it is what it is. I hung onto my subscription for about three years past the time when it held any real value or interest, somehow hoping against hope that if I kept throwing dollars at it, it would somehow turn back into what it had been. It is a bad joke and an insult to suggest that...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt - value vs. growth
Replies: 25
Views: 1600

Re: Small cap tilt - value vs. growth

I used to tilt small value, but last year I switched to small blend. IJR instead of IJS. The value factor premium is notorious for disappearing for a decade at a time. Small blend (based on S&P 600) is the more BH move, you're taking advantage of the quality screen and not counting on value to go y...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt - value vs. growth
Replies: 25
Views: 1600

Re: Small cap tilt - value vs. growth

...Over the long term small value has beaten growth. Uh, or it used to. :confused Jared Kizer wrote the following. Note point #7 in particular. 6. Any transparent strategy, which applies to everything outlined in this piece, is capable of extended periods of underperformance. There is nothing that ...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter part 8: Small-caps
Replies: 5
Views: 753

Re: Matter/Scatter part 8: Small-caps

Nisi, the fourth and fifth charts appear identical. Were the returns of NAESX and DFSCX that similar, or did something happen with the chart? Yikes. Thanks. Corrected. The final chart with micro-caps (BRSIX) does seem to show a noticeable contrast to the baseline 60/40. In your opinion, is that due...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today
Replies: 58
Views: 4298

Re: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today

Of course, if we're going to try to play the single-stock evaluation game, you have to ask, of all the various companies that have been beaten down and look like they're in desperate shape, why is GE the one you would choose to invest in? Among other things, isn't it one of the companies in which it...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here's what has happened to value since FF 3-factor
Replies: 6
Views: 776

Re: Here's what has happened to value since FF 3-factor

The chart is looking at the value premium using book-to-market. That said, this period also includes the rise of big-tech companies in which using book-to-market as a value screen overvalues these companies which have performed well. Most "value" mutual funds and ETFs use a combination of different...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt - value vs. growth
Replies: 25
Views: 1600

Re: Small cap tilt - value vs. growth

This is a fascinating question, because the original Fama-French study--and virtually all people recommending factor tilts--say that small-cap value is far preferable. It's just about unanimous. In fact, there's surprisingly little evidence for any strong benefit from small-caps alone (i.e. small-ca...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are the cons of multi-family housing investments?
Replies: 4
Views: 540

Re: What are the cons of multi-family housing investments?

Is it an "investment" or is it "operating a small business?"
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today
Replies: 58
Views: 4298

Re: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today

Has there ever been a case of a company being dropped from the Dow and being reinstated later?
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enough. How do I invest in Australia.
Replies: 22
Views: 1483

Re: Enough. How do I invest in Australia.

...I'm not interested in claims that past performance doesn't guarantee future results... That's not a "claim," that's a fact. Evidence is evidence, and I'm ready to use it. Evidence is evidence, and I'm ready to use the evidence that past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Does anyone k...
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why the Yale Endowment Hate? [Request for portfolio help]
Replies: 90
Views: 6279

Re: Why the Yale Endowment Hate?

It is frequently said that university endowments have a very long time frame, longer than that of a human lifetime. There is a wonderful (but, alas, apocryphal) story, told by Gregory Bateson, about Oxford having a stand of trees that was kept untouched for 400 years so that they would be ready when...
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 558
Views: 32843

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

everyone is taking currency risk by definition. to be invested, you must be invested in some currency, to the exclusion of others. That is not the definition of currency risk, so if you are going to use a phrase like "currency risk by definition" I think it's reasonable to nit-pick about it. One de...
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why the Yale Endowment Hate? [Request for portfolio help]
Replies: 90
Views: 6279

Re: Why the Yale Endowment Hate?

Being from The Other Institute of Technology I can feel even more superior. I'm assuming that's indeed CalTech. I remember that in a bizarre moment of sanity, one year, U.S. News and World Report briefly rated schools on merit, and CalTech ranked #1, beating out all the Ivies. Previously, the ranki...
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why the Yale Endowment Hate? [Request for portfolio help]
Replies: 90
Views: 6279

Re: Why the Yale Endowment Hate?

(Cardinal and Gray here). (Even if my avatar looks like Old Nassau). Do not confuse the Yale Endowment with the Yale Endowment portfolio that you mention in the OP. Not the same thing. To spell it out: As of fiscal year 2017, the Yale Endowment portfolio was reported to be (p. 7) Absolute Return 25....
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 558
Views: 32843

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

One must ask how the rest of the world's stocks would perform if the U.S. did a repeat of Japan. That's a matter of conjecture, but I doubt that most believe that a 20% allocation to international stocks would 'save the day'. 20% probably wouldn't save the day, but it'd almost certainly be better t...
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why the Yale Endowment Hate? [Request for portfolio help]
Replies: 90
Views: 6279

Re: Why the Yale Endowment Hate?

There isn't any "hate" for the Yale endowment portfolio as such. Back when Unconventional Success came out, there were many kind words for Swensen in this forum. (I've never read it; I probably should). The Boglehead position reflects "the majesty of simplicity:" There are an infinite number of stra...
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 558
Views: 32843

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

No matter how efficient the market is, it cannot change the fact that a European investor buying European stocks with euros experiences less risk than a US investor buying those identical European stocks with dollars, and that a US investor buying US stocks in dollars experiences less risk and the E...
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OK, maybe Vanguard's website IS a little old... "56K dial-up..."
Replies: 19
Views: 2173

Re: OK, maybe Vanguard's website IS a little old... "56K dial-up..."

Oh, I personally remember 300 bps modems. Indeed, if they had acoustic couplers, you could, with a little bit of practice, whistle at them and convince them you were another modem; they would connect, and if you then warbled the whistle they would interpret it as a stream of gibberish characters. I ...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today
Replies: 58
Views: 4298

Re: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today

the house is always wrong at the top and at the bottom. Yup - but the only problem you have is you have no idea if this is the bottom. that is a good thought. at this time, probability says otherwise. risk vs return is very low buying at historical lows relative to high volatility. How do you measu...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 23
Views: 2756

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

I shall ignore the 110-year-old anecdote about alleged successes of unidentified "old veterans of Wall street" unless you can convince me that those venerable gents in were investing in emerging markets index funds in 1908. Well, apparently Henry Clews was a British citizen who was investing in the...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 558
Views: 32843

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

"Disaster" is a strong word. I've been invested in international stocks since roughly the year 2000 or so at roughly 20-25% of my total stock allocation, so I have some skin in the game. My position, fairly consistent I think, is that there is no evidence that international stocks have ever made muc...