Search found 36573 matches

by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 736
Views: 32985

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

I am the Bogle. I speak for low fees.

Image
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who Will Speak for US?
Replies: 12
Views: 1232

Re: Who Will Speak for US?

I was very pleased to see this come across my Facebook feed--I follow NPR but I don't think Facebook knows of my interest in Bogle. What pleased me is that it wasn't just Wall Street Journal news, it was news , period. And I was pleased by NPR's title. They got it. It wasn't "Bogle, Founder of Reall...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?
Replies: 17
Views: 1122

Re: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?

I do not use a small-cap or a small-cap value tilt. I believe that the "prime directive" is "stay the course." I think you will find that most factor advocates will agree and say something like Jared Kizer: Any transparent strategy, which applies to everything outlined in this piece, is capable of e...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 736
Views: 32985

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

I have to say that the first thing that went through my mind were these lines of poetry: But yet I know, where'er I go, That there hath past away a glory from the earth. With John C. Bogle's death, "there has past away a glory from the earth." (I understand that they don't really apply; the poet, Wi...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 736
Views: 32985

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

Oh, no. Words fail me.
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 182
Views: 9608

Re: Why are your NOT buying rental properties?

...So, I have to ask... if you are willing to hustle and you have the money, why are you not buying rental properties? Yes, you can buy RE ETF but that is like buying S&P 500. There is no leverage. Leverage is what makes RE investing special but of course leverage is great on the way up but painful...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Money Market Fund Yields and Expense Ratios Work?
Replies: 9
Views: 613

Re: How do Money Market Fund Yields and Expense Ratios Work?

As with other mutual funds, "what you see is what you get." Just as you'd hope. You don't need to subtract the expense ratio from the performance numbers or anything like that. If Schwab's performance chart shows you this, https://imgur.com/CtxkJJI.png then if you put bought $10,000 of SWSXX on the ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 48
Views: 3776

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

[ ...Nope, historical total return of real estate is comparable to equity (see https://www.cbsnews.com/news/history-says-home-real-estate-is-a-bad-investment/ ). ... :?: :?: :?: You supported a claim that "historical total return of real estate is comparable to equity" with a link to an article that...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which Type of Annuities Did You Choose and Why
Replies: 18
Views: 1005

Re: Which Type of Annuities Did You Choose and Why

I bought two "SPIAs," single premium immediate annuities. They have no investment component, nothing "variable," no "accounts" or "portfolios" inside them. They are simple contracts (less than a page for the essentials, then several pages of legalese about where the company is domiciled and how they...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When/why have you needed customer service from Fido, VG, Schwab etc.?
Replies: 30
Views: 1394

Re: When/why have you needed customer service from Fido, VG, Schwab etc.?

As nearly as I can remember, almost every time--I can't remember the others--involved glitches in moving assets from institution to institution. The four institutions were TIAA-CREF, Vanguard, Schwab, and Fidelity. And to the best of my knowledge, in no case was customer service of any particular he...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"
Replies: 17
Views: 1786

Re: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"

Stunning.

I can already hear the excuses.

If it underperformed after 2009, "it shouldn't count because it was such an unusual bull market in stocks."

If it underperformed in 2008-2009, "well, for heaven's sake, that was during the Global Financial Crisis"

...etc.
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: End of an era - Boeing 727
Replies: 35
Views: 2348

Re: End of an era - Boeing 727

Always liked that plane. That's the one where it looked as if the wing was coming completely apart during a landing, right? And got off the ground really quick on takeoff?
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Stock Fund Slump (Morningstar discussion)
Replies: 3
Views: 329

Re: Active Stock Fund Slump (Morningstar discussion)

This is likely explained by the impact of a few factors, including the shrinking margin of outperformance before fees; styles like value and size performing more alike; and the "wrong" styles, such as large-cap and growth, leading. While it's reasonable to assume that some of these trends will abat...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs
Replies: 22
Views: 2750

Re: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs

But, unless an inflation-adjusted SPIA is chosen, the longevity insurance does not provide steady spending power. One must consider whether inflation over dozens of years of compounding is riskier than a long life. Choose an inflation-adjusted SPIA. Problem solved. It’s very expensive to insure aga...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Message from United Consumer Financial Services (UCFS). A Scam?
Replies: 10
Views: 725

Re: Message from United Consumer Financial Services (UCFS). A Scam?

I get many scam emails that are like this, but none specifically from UCFS. My impression is that they just use names of companies that are so big that there's a good chance that if they send out 100,000 of them, 10,000 of them will be to people who actually are customers. Do you, in fact, do busine...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 73
Views: 6652

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

Meanwhile, if I simply do a web search on "HODL ETF" I get boatloads of stories from November 18th and the next few days... and, seemingly, nothing at all after that. Nothing after November 18th searching on "Amun" at Coindesk.com. Is this chart (https://www.six-group.com/exchanges/exchange_traded_...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts
Replies: 26
Views: 1552

Re: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

These were their forecasts 6/30/11-6/30/18 https://pensionpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/gmo4.png Here's my chart of how their forecasts compared with the actual results: https://imgur.com/qoxj7Kh.png The correlation coefficient between the forecasts and the observations 0.05. That is to sa...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Credit score dropped dramatically, while credit has been frozen
Replies: 28
Views: 1494

Re: Credit score dropped dramatically, while credit has been frozen

Odd. I froze my credit score in 2017 in the wake of the Equifax breach, with no obvious effects. My credit score, which I get free from my credit card company, is said to be a "Transunion" score (of some kind). It has stayed in the range 793-802 over the past three years.
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 1967

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

Here is a link to pull the chart on Yahoo finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/SPY#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6Im1vbnRoIiwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjoyNywidm9sdW1lVW5kZXJsYXkiOnRydWUsImFkaiI6dHJ1ZSwiY3Jvc3NoYWlyIjp0cnVlLCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwiZXh0ZW5kZWQiOmZhbHNlLCJtYXJrZXRTZXNzaW9ucyI6e30s...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 86
Views: 10582

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

...A fund with deeper exposure to a given factor than some benchmark will do better than the benchmark when the factor does well and worse than the benchmark when the factor does poorly. There is no attempt to “dodge benchmarking”; instead it’s an appreciation of the limited usefulness of compariso...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1833

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

hdas wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:26 am
...Long Term GDP growth and stock markets correlate in the long term...
Data?

The MSCI plum-pudding chart in my posting above, showing negative correlation, is for fifty years, which is in "long-term" territory.
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 73
Views: 6652

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

Meanwhile, if I simply do a web search on "HODL ETF" I get boatloads of stories from November 18th and the next few days... and, seemingly, nothing at all after that. Nothing after November 18th searching on "Amun" at Coindesk.com.
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1833

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

1) You offer no evidence that it is a "cliff" or a "timing opportunity," rather than a gradual process. I know of no way for a retail investor to invest easily in whole-nation economies or GDPs . What I can invest in is stocks . And China's stock market is a tenth the size of the US. Currently, the...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1833

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

1) You offer no evidence that it is a "cliff" or a "timing opportunity," rather than a gradual process. I know of no way for a retail investor to invest easily in whole-nation economies or GDPs . What I can invest in is stocks . And China's stock market is a tenth the size of the US. Currently, the ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 86
Views: 10582

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Well, they seem to be marketing at least one of these multifactors to us now (VFLQ): https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-industry-perspective/vanguard-liquidity-factor-investings-hidden-gem What would the benchmark be for that fund? Mid Cap? Can't even do a comparison on M* via the chart function - do...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 73
Views: 6652

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

Can any crypto aficionados bring us up to date on the current state of the HODL ETF? Is it real or was it basically just a publicity stunt?
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?
Replies: 60
Views: 3941

Re: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?

You avoid temptation by doing exactly that, avoiding it rather than resisting it. One of the virtues of simplicity and staying the course is that you have decided up front to be a "satisficer," content with the possibility that you have a suboptimal portfolio and the likelihood that you have an adeq...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7332

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

The other point about marginal national stock markets, such as "frontier markets," is that it doesn't actually make any difference whether you include them or not, because they are such a negligible percentage by cap weight that you actually can't tell if they are included in a global portfolio or n...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7332

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

...Given that, why would Venezuela be "kicked out" of an index? Shouldn't we rather let "the market" decide whether and how much to invest in Venezuelan companies? Anything else is not a pure market-driven metric... Being "purely market-driven" only makes sense if there is a market . What matters h...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medallion Signature guarantee?
Replies: 46
Views: 4332

Re: Medallion Signature guarantee?

My mother recently passed away and I am the executor of her estate. She held some stock in an individual account that I need to transfer to an estate account prior to distribution to the heirs. Unfortunately, I need to get a medallion signature guarantee on the forms requesting the transfer to the ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Fidelity Zero Fund BETTER than Fidelity Expense Ratio Fund
Replies: 31
Views: 3489

Re: Is Fidelity Zero Fund BETTER than Fidelity Expense Ratio Fund

... IF you already own Fidelity Total Market Index Fund, which has an expense ratio of .015, should you switch to the Fidelity Zero Total Market fund?... It is my honest opinion, and my prediction , is that five years from now, if you use Morningstar to chart and compare the growth of a) the Fideli...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I know market timing is a fool's game but...
Replies: 59
Views: 4663

Re: I know market timing is a fool's game but...

The market will crash. A recession will happen. We don't know when. The trick is to ALWAYS hold an Asset Allocation (AA) that you can stick with if the market crashes 50% tomorrow and takes a while to recover. Because it might. The risk is never zero. The risk may be higher at some times than other...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status
Replies: 23
Views: 2383

Re: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status

Don't overthink this. I suggest you first decide what rating satisfies you, and then second go by the Morningstar "average credit quality" ratings, and call it good. So corporate bonds are riskier than Treasuries, no news there. For about a decade, there have been critics (including John C. Bogle) c...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about FDIC insurance
Replies: 21
Views: 1290

Re: Question about FDIC insurance

On the one hand, I personally experienced an NCUA handling of a failed credit union, and at about the same time a colleague experienced an FSLIC handling of a failed savings and loan, and both of them were practically non-events. One sign on the door Friday, different sign on the door Monday. The be...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7332

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

Here's what I honestly believe. (I assume that you are talking about the choice of holding emerging markets at cap weight, or excluding them; not overweighting them or shorting them or anything bold like that). 1) I don't believe it can make much difference, for reasons I explained above. If emergin...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7332

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

My question for the OP/this audience is: What are the likes of GMO (etc.) missing when they recommend Emerging Markets as a value play? From another thread, GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin https://pensionpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/gmo4.png What were they missing wh...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a bear market, anyway? Bulls, bears, recessions, perceptions
Replies: 1
Views: 253

Re: What is a bear market, anyway? Bulls, bears, recessions, perceptions

And while we are on the topic, the period from 1929 through 1945 is commonly tabulated as two bear markets. Ibbotson SBBI 2015 Classic Yearbook tabulates them this way: Peak August, 1929 Trough May, 1932 Decline, 79% Recovery, November 1936 Peak Feb, 1937 Trough March, 1938 Decline, 49.93% Recovery....
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7332

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

...Re Point 1) Do you believe that, perhaps, under these assumptions you would have bought South Sea stock in 1720? You would not have if you had demanded fair value. The fair value of the company was, after all, easy to evaluate, because all of its actual earnings came from the British government ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7332

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

I would make two points. First, "fairly valued" is not an assumption behind an important argument for cap-weighted indexing. The theory is outlined here and has to do with characteristics of the market portfolio (all of the assets held within a market). It has a number of assumptions, but "fair valu...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is snp charging too much fees for indexing? [Standard-n-Poor index]
Replies: 18
Views: 1197

Re: Is snp charging too much fees for indexing?

Vanguard more or less did create their own indexes circa 2001 or so, when they began to use MSCI indexes. At the time Vanguard said some of them were "jointly developed" with MSCI, and many of the indexes Vanguard was using were not used by any other index funds. I don't know any more about it than ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to get Plan admins to offer Vanguard?
Replies: 13
Views: 3951

Re: How to get Plan admins to offer Vanguard?

1) Don't talk about "Vanguard" or try to get them to offer "Vanguard funds." Concentrate on the kind of fund you want to see. For example, you want to see some "low-cost index funds." In particular, if they are using T. Rowe Price, you should at least ask specifically for the T. Rowe Price Equity In...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using TSM for Essential Liabilities- TSM's worst rolling averages
Replies: 18
Views: 1619

Re: Using TSM for Essential Liabilities- TSM's worst rolling averages

I wish I had the quotation, but Nassim Nicholas Taleb has pointed out that the worst case that has ever occurred is always , by definition worse than what had been thought to be the "worst case" up to then. In the fourth edition of Stocks for the Long Run, Jeremy Siegel wrote: never in any of the pa...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 1967

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

If this was a "major advantage", ETFs tracking the same index as a mutual fund would outperform over time. Do you see ETFs outperforming similarly indexed mutual funds? Yes, for example. Fidelity S&P 500 ETF (SPY 0.0945% Expense Fee) has outperformed their S&P Mutual Fund (FXAIX 0.015% Expense Fee)...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is snp charging too much fees for indexing? [Standard-n-Poor index]
Replies: 18
Views: 1197

Re: Is snp charging too much fees for indexing?

P.S. vu8, If someone is suggesting that you should use some other index fund because of the supposed high cost of the S&P index, that is at least logical , though questionable if the person saying it can't tell you how much that is in dollars. However, I suspect that someone is suggesting that you s...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is snp charging too much fees for indexing? [Standard-n-Poor index]
Replies: 18
Views: 1197

Re: Is snp charging too much fees for indexing?

I usually write this as "S&P," for "Standard and Poor's," even though when people say "S and P" it does sound like "S 'n' P." The easy answer is that if you have any doubts about S&P indexing, it is easy to find index funds from Vanguard and others that use other index providers. And I can get a goo...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds (No Loads) vs Vanguard Index Funds
Replies: 30
Views: 2137

Re: American Funds (No Loads) vs Vanguard Index Funds

...My adviser (who is a fiduciary)... Serious question. How do you know that your advisor is a fiduciary? Do you have something on paper signed by your advisor himself that says so? That is, that the particular person who is giving you advice is a fiduciary? (As opposed to, say, making an offhand r...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lithium etf (LIT)
Replies: 7
Views: 915

Re: Lithium etf (LIT)

:twisted: :twisted: :twisted: How about Lithia Motors (LAD)? :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International debate again!!
Replies: 16
Views: 1127

Re: International debate again!!

Interesting. They upped the percentage of international in their own all-in-one funds (Target Retirement, LifeStrategy) to 40% in 2015 so it's no surprise, the only surprise is that they're formalizing that as a recommendation to individuals who aren't using those funds. There's no point in rehashin...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3551

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

Part 1: Introduction , Appendix: Methodology Brief notes: 1) In these Monte Carlo simulations, the return for a given month is varied by randomly choosing the actual historical return or the actual historic return for an adjacent month. 2) They show the final value from $100 monthly contributions m...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds (No Loads) vs Vanguard Index Funds
Replies: 30
Views: 2137

Re: American Funds (No Loads) vs Vanguard Index Funds

My personal opinion is that there is no way an advisor can add 1.35%/year of pure return, 1.35% of "alpha," through superior choices or superior portfolio construction. Not even close. He can appear to do it a) by the luck of the particular time period, and b) by increasing the risk of the portfolio...