Search found 35177 matches

by nisiprius
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small company effect is overstated due to flawed dataset
Replies: 8
Views: 904

Re: Small company effect is overstated due to flawed dataset

I find it hard to believe that when calculating factor premium such as value and small, they would have overlooked this within the datat set. And using portfoliovisualizer during his stated timeframe. 1986 to present, there appears to be a significant premium for SCV. Would be interesting to hear P...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti Indexing investment
Replies: 13
Views: 834

Re: Anti Indexing investment

"Indexing" doesn't mean the S&P 500. In this forum, we mostly talk about the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSMX/VTSAX/VTI. However, I don't know the actual numbers but probably most of the money invested in index funds is invested in S&P 500 index funds. The diametrically opposed investme...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: This is ridiculously expensive LTCi, right? Or maybe not?
Replies: 63
Views: 2805

Re: This is ridiculously expensive LTCi, right? Or maybe not?

My mom's LTCi premiums for the past 6 years have been a little over $17,000/year. Premium just increased to a little over $22,000/year. She has paid 6 years of LTCi premiums, on a 10 year payment plan. So 4 more years of premiums to pay, then no more premiums. Really, that is per year? We bought tw...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hidden Index Bubble - I'd love to hear some thoughts!
Replies: 27
Views: 1755

Re: Hidden Index Bubble - I'd love to hear some thoughts!

Investing in cap-weighted total-market index funds really is different from every other strategy. It is the only strategy in which investors, by investing in the fund, do not alter the composition of the remaining assets available for purchase by other investors . It is the only strategy which does ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 108
Views: 6298

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

In addition to nonparametric tests which don't assume a normal distribution, people working in other fields have developed: -"sequential tests," where you want to be able to test continuously to see if significance has been reached while data is being acquired, and stop when it has been--in order to...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 108
Views: 6298

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

Well, an introductory text on mathematical statistics might have one or more chapters on the estimation of parameters of probability distributions, such as mean or variance, from sample statistics. If you repeatedly sample a distribution, and compute sample statistics such as sample means or sample...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 6488

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

I guess I'm a Zvi Bodie fan. From memory... in a Youtube video he says to look into the mirror every morning and say to yourself "don't lose money today". He puts everything in TIPS. If the return of TIPS don't match your retirement plans.... work longer or save more. I have a sizeable portion of m...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz
Replies: 30
Views: 1376

Re: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz

SimpleGift wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:05 pm
...Mr. Lowenfeld's advice still seems sound over 100 years later — though the diversification benefits may be a bit less today...
In your portfolio, you give equal weight to the United States and Central America?
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 108
Views: 6298

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

I “get” the idea using the momentum factor, but have any real world funds been around long enough to demonstrate that it works (or doesn’t)? Momentum is tricky, for at least two reasons. First, it has generally shown negative correlation with value. Jared Kizer has written: Practically, it is impos...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can One Keep Trial Deposits?
Replies: 30
Views: 4339

Re: Can One Keep Trial Deposits?

Yeah, they can be reversed. Vanguard reversed one of mine just the other day: https://imgur.com/Huq4T9V.png Snatched eighty-seven cents right back out of my brand-new WinnemacBank Teal Heptagon X-Tream Premium+ savings account. Bummer. Well, at least I made a day's interest at 1.99% API, so that wou...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could Vanguard diverge from low cost strategy after Bogle left?
Replies: 5
Views: 868

Re: Could Vanguard diverge from low cost strategy after Bogle left?

Nothing is certain, but John C. Bogle resigned from Vanguard in 1999, and neither of his first two successors (William Brennan, Bill McNabb) has done so; they continued to aggressively cut expense ratios. I guess there is now a new CEO, Mortimer Buckley, about whom I don't know much.
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 1575

Re: Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?

With respect to something catastrophic happening that could lose all your money, I don't think there's any sensible way to compare the two. It's sort of like asking what is your relative risk of dying from drinking a Coke in an aluminum can versus drinking one in a plastic bottle. It can't be exactl...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine
Replies: 65
Views: 4159

Re: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine

Take care of the pence and the pounds will take care of themselves. Ah, but that's only one member of the pair of contradictory proverbs. The other is "penny wise and pound foolish." Similarly: He who hesitates is lost/Look before you leap Many hands make light work/Too many cooks spoil the broth B...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency
Replies: 19
Views: 1106

Re: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency

At Walmart, do you try to negotiate a deal by haggling with the checkout clerk, or do you just pay the marked price? In real life, with your real purchases, what percentage of your dollars do you spend on purchases where you have done serious comparison shopping? Except in two traditional markets--b...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: Sustainable Active Investing Framework Simple But Not Easy
Replies: 8
Views: 752

Re: Alpha Architect: Sustainable Active Investing Framework Simple But Not Easy

Can someone clarify the point that's being made here? First, the WSJ facts on Ken’s fund performance: Ken Heebner’s $3.7 billion CGM Focus Fund, rose more than 18% annually and outpaced its closest rival by more than three percentage points. Next, the WSJ lays out some facts on the performance of in...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average
Replies: 48
Views: 5279

Re: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average

The DJIA isn’t terrible; just bad. It’s a price weighted “indicator”, not a market index. The idea is to provide a general direction of the price of a few stocks (there were only a few stocks traded when the indicator was created). The allocation to each stock is based on the market price of one sh...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Mr. Bogle so against investing internationally?
Replies: 24
Views: 2781

Re: Why is Mr. Bogle so against investing internationally?

He isn't so against it. First of all, at the 2012 Bogleheads 11 conference, Oblivious Investor took down a verbatim quotation . Bogle said: "If there's one place I don't want people to take my advice, it's international. I want you to think it through for yourself." I'm not sure I can cite sources, ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average
Replies: 48
Views: 5279

Re: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average

Despite all the griping about the DJIA, the Dow has pretty well paralleled the S&P 500 (and predecessors); ballpark, the Dow has always been roughly equal to the S&P times ten. Certainly, the cap-weighted S&P is a better measure than the crazy DJIA, and a total market index would be better than the ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Marriott hotels using Alexa/Echo in guest rooms?
Replies: 34
Views: 2909

Re: Marriott hotels using Alexa/Echo in guest rooms?

There is no way to be sure any computer is really "off" merely because you have operated the power button. In fact, the desktop computers I've used for at least ten years can be configured to "wake on network access," implying that not only it is constantly energized (in a low-power state), but it i...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Capital One 360 ACH limits
Replies: 47
Views: 7548

Re: New Capitol One 360 ACH limits

Got the same email. I was a little concerned that it was a specific notice to me, masquerading as a general notice, retaliation because I'd transferred $10,000 out of my account a few weeks ago, but I guess it's general. My email subject line was "Check out your new transaction limits," as if it wer...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 6488

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

stock price decline might have nothing to do with Berkshire losing money. For example, if appple were to announce revenue down $1bln, they’d still be profitable but the stock price would decline. "Might." Sure. That's the thing about Warren Buffett's pronouncements. Nobody can stop guessing or inte...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine
Replies: 65
Views: 4159

Re: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine

Be grateful that the distilled water doesn't come in little single-use cartridges with one night's supply of distilled water, at $39.95 for a box of 24--with RFID chips in them, of course, so that the machine will only run with genuine manufacturer-branded cartridges. No RFD chips but individual us...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What companies followed Vanguard to no-load???
Replies: 13
Views: 996

Re: What companies followed Vanguard to no-load???

In 1972, in New York magazine, Charles and Susan Ellis wrote: Conventional mutual funds may be the only firms in town which, if they raised the price of their merchandise, would sell more of it. The reason is that built into the price of each share is a hefty sales commission that has proved, over t...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine
Replies: 65
Views: 4159

Re: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine

Be grateful that the distilled water doesn't come in little single-use cartridges with one night's supply of distilled water, at $39.95 for a box of 24--with RFID chips in them, of course, so that the machine will only run with genuine manufacturer-branded cartridges.
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 6488

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

...Buffett bashing is a bit of a hobby on the forum, and for the life of me I can't figure out why. His advice to investors is pretty clear in most instances, and in the past 15 years or so has been very similar to Jack Bogle's in regards to individual investors like those on the forum. It's a litt...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine
Replies: 65
Views: 4159

Re: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine

You're talking about a potential cost of savings of maybe, 6 ounces/day at a cost of, say, $1.29/gallon = $0.06/day or $22/year. Since there is no expectation that people are going to drink, let alone breathe the water condensed in a dehumidifier, there's no reason to expect there's been any attenti...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 6488

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

“It's only a loss on paper – until you sell.” I once owned $200 in the stock of the company I worked for. (I was afraid I'd be thought disloyal if I didn't participate in the employee stock purchase program, so I signed up for $5/month.) It was worth $14/share when I joined the company. It was wort...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 6488

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

Rule #1: Nobody actually knows what Buffett means by many of the things he says.
Rule #2: never forget rule #1.
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 5062

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

...Fortunately, there are other decentralised blockchains technolgies (namely Ethereum) in the works, which (will) solve all these problems (and more)... 1) Some of the problems with Bitcoin were designed in and anticipated, not discovered. The big surprise is that the Bitcoin community elected not...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio
Replies: 21
Views: 2671

Re: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio

The Four Pillars of Investing was published in 2003. Let's compare two 60/40 portfolios, using PortfolioVisualizer's asset class definitions, from 2003 through the present. For the 40, we will use "Total US Bond Market." For portfolio 1, blue, we will split up the 60 according to his ratios: 24% US...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio
Replies: 21
Views: 2671

Re: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio

Also, it is known that all such numbers should be prime numbers and the presence of 8 and 4 pretty much invalidates the suggestion. Wikipedia's definition: "Prime number (or a prime) is a natural number greater than 1 that cannot be formed by multiplying two smaller natural numbers." dbr: Why shoul...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?
Replies: 25
Views: 1951

Re: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?

I invest in bond funds for safety. (By which I mean, yes, volatility reduction). I do not hold any currency-hedged international bond funds (such as Vanguard's Total International Bond Fund) because the case for them providing any meaningful diversification, e.g. by Vanguard in Global fixed income: ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much (green) cash at home for emergency ?
Replies: 117
Views: 9207

Re: How much (green) cash at home for emergency ?

Even using screen names, I don't think it is wise to discuss how much money you keep in your house.
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MS Office 2016 "The Operating System Is Not Presently Configured To Run This Application"
Replies: 11
Views: 1020

Re: MS Office 2016 "The Operating System Is Not Presently Configured To Run This Application"

About ten or fifteen years ago, I concluded that the only safe way to use antivirus programs is to do manual scans. I do periodic manual scans (under Mac OS X) with Avast and Malwarebytes, and resist all nagging entreaties to install real-time shields or continuous internet protection or background ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 5062

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

...Bitcoin is hard money... Please tell me your definition of "hard money" and cite a source for that definition. Brushing aside the unrelated term "hard money lending," I will assume that by "hard money" you mean the same thing "hard currency." Some definitions of "hard currency" include: Oxford E...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 659
Views: 151791

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Not looking to get into a discussion about gold so I'll just leave it with the comment that "extra benefit" isn't the point of holding it. Even though I don't implement the PP, nor do I intend to, the point of the PP seems to be to have an allocation that is at least theoretically likely to provide...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mechanisms for disappearance of factor premia -- how does it work for momentum?
Replies: 14
Views: 764

Re: Mechanisms for disappearance of factor premia -- how does it work for momentum?

...I find it more tricky to understand how the momentum premium would disappear when more people start investing in momentum stocks. Momentum stocks are stocks which have recently performed well, and if more investors start buying such recent winners, their price should go up even more, hence ampli...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 36
Views: 3503

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

nisiprius: Back in this thread Small-cap tilt, 1925-2004: good enough to make you switch? , you concluded that the the small cap effect is there but that it is small. (That is my favorite BH thread ever, BTW). I'm curious if that is still your view or if you have evolved a bit and concluded the tha...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3721

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

It is often overlooked--thanks to "spin" by people whose incomes depending on sales of stocks and bonds, and a too-strict interpretation of the word "cash"--that (assuming reasonable due diligence in selection), ...bank savings accounts, CDs, and Treasury bills have historically kept up with inflati...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 25
Views: 1955

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

I think it's an interesting idea. I like the idea that the stock market itself does not possess Siegel's "extraordinary stability," but that it reflects the stability or lack thereof of the underlying economy. Now all we need is a forward-looking way to estimate statistical expectations of the avera...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 12
Views: 1193

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

Agreed that it has been shown that Gross was not the only contributor at PTTRX and that his leaving did not seem to hurt the fund in a major way. Gross's current fund has quite a different mandate then PTTRX so maybe should not be compared to it. Yes and no. The prospectus objective for PTTRX, the ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilt is enough to make a difference?
Replies: 27
Views: 1833

Re: How much tilt is enough to make a difference?

With the usual proviso about past performance, I suggest you conduct some PortfolioVisualizer backtests using your current portfolio, your selection of "the value fund" you propose to use, and the effect of replacing various parts of the 40% SWSTX with it. Since the question is about "making a diffe...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 12
Views: 1193

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

As to recent decline: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-grosss-janus-unconstrained-bond-fund-drops-sharply-1527688629 Standard WSJ paywall to deal with. Analysts believe the fund was caught wrong footed on a big bet on the relative yields between German and Italian bonds. Gross had been making reco...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 12
Views: 1193

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

Actually I was referring to the very recent fall-off in Bill Gross' current fund, unaccompanied by any similar falls in Total Bond or PIMCO Total Return or the Harbor fund you mentioned. Bill Gross' departure had very little obvious-to-the-eye effect on PIMCO Total Return, and the fact that investor...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I "market timing"?
Replies: 37
Views: 1869

Re: Am I "market timing"?

I think it is much better to say "Am I market timing? Very well then I am market timing. (I am large, I contain multitudes)*," then to do some market timing and kid yourself that you are not market timing. Or, to riff on another source, "Time. Or time not. There is no 'am I.'" *Walt Whitman, "Song o...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 12
Views: 1193

Bill Gross' fund, lately...

In a recent thread about Jeff Gundlach's predictions, cfs commented: Television camera chasers. Gundlach, Bill Gross, and others well-known here. Ignore y gracias por leer / cfs Bill Gross! The "Bond King." That's a name I haven't heard in... well, months. So how is his fund, the Janus, excuse me Ja...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%
Replies: 18
Views: 3178

Re: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%

cfs wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:32 am
Television camera chasers. Gundlach, Bill Gross, and others well-known here. Ignore y gracias por leer / cfs
Bill Gross. There's a name that hasn't come up lately. Think I'll start another thread about that...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I feel like selling my 3 fund
Replies: 57
Views: 7405

Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

"I feel like selling my 3 fund"--leo28 "Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy."--John C. Bogle It you can't stand to do nothing at all, if you feel an uncontrollable itch to sell, scratch it by making a tiny incremental change . Then force yourself to wait for a couple of months and see how thi...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should your employment/income source determine your investment choices?
Replies: 13
Views: 941

Re: Should your employment/income source determine your investment choices?

The idea of considering your job as an investment asset has never made any sense to me. The most obvious point is that you own your investments, but you do not own your job. It is not your property. But, above all, I don't think there's anything actionable in the idea, because you do not have even r...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SleepScore App
Replies: 11
Views: 1142

Re: SleepScore App

If you are seriously dissatisfied with your quality of sleep, to the point where you suspect it may be unhealthy, then I think you should consider an evaluation by a sleep clinic.