Search found 35724 matches

by nisiprius
Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."
Replies: 10
Views: 920

Re: Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."

International wasn’t removed from the 10 funder though. It still contains emerging. At 6% or so it shouldn’t make a huge difference, but EM is volatile! :oops: That's what comes of not being familiar with DFA ticker symbols. Try this. I'm correcting my earlier post. Portfolio 1 (Green) VFINX Vangua...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Physical Banking - Any benefits anymore?
Replies: 51
Views: 2534

Re: Physical Banking - Any benefits anymore?

The medallion signature guarantee is the big one. The need for one pops up unexpectedly, and often rather urgently. ...I opened an account at local banks twice solely for Medallion service... That's interesting. How long did you have to have the account before they would give you the medallion signa...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"
Replies: 28
Views: 4189

Re: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"

...Sounds about right... they guys that predicted 2008... also followed up and have said the DOW is going to 36,000 ... we have some room to run and a few more years so I'd say it is tracking to those predictions... See if you can find names, I'm really curious to read the actual words of someone, ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 1151

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Housing prices for not quite 400 years, in Herengracht, a residential district of Amsterdam. Alas, I haven't been able to find out what happened after 2008. Doubling from 1628 to 2008 = an average real return of +0.52% / year (CAGR) Incidentally, notice that money invested in 1803 suffered about a -...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HELOC as a bonds replacement for drawing down from in a downturn?
Replies: 18
Views: 835

Re: HELOC as a bonds replacement for drawing down from in a downturn?

Check what happened to people with HELOCs during the financial crisis. Debt is not the same thing as money. Lines of credit are only available when a bank has money available that it wants to lend . And when is that? Good times, when, in your scenario, you don't need the loan. They are not guarantee...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the risk in buying Purchased Money Funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 386

Re: What is the risk in buying Purchased Money Funds?

Yes, it's interesting. To my mind, money market funds were "conceived in sin" because they were patently an attempt to provide a banking service without being subject to banking regulations. The safety of bank accounts is backed by the FDIC, and it's not an empty promise. The FDIC bales out deposito...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."
Replies: 10
Views: 920

Re: Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."

Perhaps the following question was answered by you in another matter scatter post, but ... It seems that there is no free lunch in that all the portfolios with a higher average performance have a higher standard deviation. If one adjusts the equity:bond asset allocation to get the same standard dev...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any opinions of this fund? Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX)
Replies: 15
Views: 1103

Re: any opinions of this fund? Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX)

...It's important to note that the Dividend Growth strategy didn't begin until some time in the early 2000's. This was the Vanguard Utilities Fund before that... :oops: Oops. Effective December 6, 2002, the fund changed its investment objective and concentration policy. Prior to making these modifi...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Majority of working-age Americans have no retirement savings”
Replies: 73
Views: 3716

Re: “Majority of working-age Americans have no retirement savings”

So where do all these retired people that I see all over the US come from? I suspect people do not tell pollsters the truth about their savings. +1 Why in the world would I want to reveal my financial status to a government agency? You don't have to. Since all of your bank and investment accounts a...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies
Replies: 25
Views: 1162

Re: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies

...I have some experience with changing Medigap plans... [Horror story.] And, an existing plan member who is trying to make a specific change is much more likely to get correct answers than a prospective buyer, asking hypothetical questions prior to purchase. The prospective buyer hasn't got a chan...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can predictions on currency depreciaction be any more accurate than those of the stock market?
Replies: 7
Views: 375

Re: Can predictions on currency depreciaction be any more accurate than those of the stock market?

...I've come across this video where Dalio speaks of the economy as of a machine, governed by law of cause and effect... I personally believe that the atmosphere, unlike the economy, really is a machine, governed by the laws of cause and effect. And yet, yesterday, Accuweather predicted "no precipi...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any opinions of this fund? Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX)
Replies: 15
Views: 1103

Re: any opinions of this fund? Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX)

Your wife (and you) need to go back to the decision to buy this fund in the first place. If she did not write down her reason for selecting it, she should remember, as best as she can, why she chose it and what she expected from it. This doesn't need to be detailed or very profound, but as best she ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Majority of working-age Americans have no retirement savings”
Replies: 73
Views: 3716

Re: “Majority of working-age Americans have no retirement savings”

I'm not going to be the one to report this, since it's a grey area and particularly since the discussion has stayed civil, but I'd like to remind everyone of forum policy , particularly the section on "unacceptable topics" that includes: discussions of the crimes, shortcomings or stupidity of other ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 40
Views: 1760

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

It's a rough rule-of-thumb relationship. Following your comment, "If bonds are for stability, shouldn't I go for short term bonds where the NAV is stable and yields will track changing interest rates?" The NAV is only relatively stable, of course. I would ask, "according to that reasoning, why shoul...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are there so few long-term investors?
Replies: 18
Views: 2452

Re: Why are there so few long-term investors?

I don't know, but when I exchanged my holding of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund for the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, circa 2005, I created "turnover" in the 500 Index Fund without changing my opinion of myself as a long-term investor. There have been, in the past, many such exchanges of one ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What can go wrong in shorting Tilray, and can EU investors short it (and how?)
Replies: 29
Views: 1176

Re: What can go wrong in shorting Tilray, and can EU investors short it (and how?)

... You are, in effect, short volatility. They have more capital than you do, they are long volatility in effect Volatility can go both ways, so if the stock is volatile and has a big drop in value, I win. So I am not sure what you meant by that... Probability theory, gambler's ruin, St. Petersburg...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies
Replies: 25
Views: 1162

Re: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies

Well, see, that's exactly the kind of thing that was driving me crazy when I was looking at Medicare Advantage plans. If you ask "can I switch back if I don't like it," things get derailed while you listen to is a series of complicated and confusing rules and options that take a while to figure out-...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."
Replies: 10
Views: 920

Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."

Part 1: Introduction , Part 2: Bond fund choices, , Part 3, International bonds, Part 4: Bond allocation . Part 5: International stocks Part 6: Expense ratios Part 7: Bonds during the financial crisis Part 8: Small-caps and micro-caps Appendix: Methodology Brief notes: 1) In these Monte Carlo simul...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies
Replies: 25
Views: 1162

Re: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies

I can't answer your question. I ended up on Traditional Medicare with Medigap (and have been very happy) because at the time, in my state, I couldn't get a straight answer to a similar question. The printed material, the insurer's website, and what the insurer's rep told me were significantly differ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle agree on the formula for long-term success: 'Buy and hold' "
Replies: 6
Views: 953

Re: "Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle agree on the formula for long-term success: 'Buy and hold' "

Taylor probably has a long list of "gems" on the subject, but I think I'll add what Jeremy Siegel has said in Stocks for the Long Run 5/E . The boldfacing is mine. These are from chapter 15, "Stocks and the Business Cycle." If you can predict the business cycle, you can beat the buy-and-hold strateg...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With expense-free funds, are other Fidelity fund obsolete?
Replies: 7
Views: 515

Re: With expense-free funds, are other Fidelity fund obsolete?

Both Fidelity and Vanguard's fund lineup has gotten cluttered up with old funds that that seem to have been superseded by new! improved! funds. A Vanguard example is the Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US fund, VFWIX, and the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund, VGTSX. I don't know the reasons ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I see now why Rollovers can take FOREVER ....
Replies: 58
Views: 5223

Re: I see now why Rollovers can take FOREVER ....

To the best of my recollection there have been about two occasions when an account transfer has worked quickly and smoothly. Both were "ACAT transfers" of entire retirement accounts , and they took well under five business days and went right the first time. The six or eight other times there have a...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I left Wealthfront
Replies: 40
Views: 11266

Re: Why I left Wealthfront

...At the end of the day, I'm not saying Wealthfront will fail... Wealthfront has succeeded in staying in business under the same name, but in my view Wealthfront has failed about four times to find a long-term sustainable strategy. Wealthfront has changed so many times during its brief existence t...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS
Replies: 28
Views: 2128

Re: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS

vineviz named "Vanguard FTSE All-Wld ex-US SmCp ETF (VSS)," as one of the four that backtested best, in a backward-looking exploration of about 100 ETFs. It had inception in 2010. He chose to look at ISZE and HDEF. That had the side effect of cutting the time period to about three years. By using VS...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS
Replies: 28
Views: 2128

Re: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS

This is the difference we are looking at, i.e. this is the chart I see when I click on the PortfolioVisualizer link vineviz provided.

Image
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unchanging opinions
Replies: 25
Views: 2151

Re: Unchanging opinions

We will have an interesting real-world text the next time I see my doctor. A few years ago, due to another issue, I said to her "I wonder if I really should be taking 81 mg. of aspirin per day? My doctor told me to do it about twenty years ago, but not for any specific problem I had." She said "hmmm...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend Following failure
Replies: 7
Views: 693

Re: Trend Following failure

Does this look like a disaster to you? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=09%2F16%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS
Replies: 28
Views: 2128

Re: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS

1) I understand perfectly that "Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS" is verbal shorthand for "Four International ETFs that would have been better diversifiers than VXUS," but it would please me if you would edit the thread title to be strictly accurate. 2) In October 2015,...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Costly race to bottom on mutual fund fees”
Replies: 13
Views: 1742

Re: “Costly race to bottom on mutual fund fees”

...I will change my mind when I meet my first Vanguard customer who is a billionaire... He's "investment strategist at Mauldin Economics." Missing from his comment is the assertion that he's met any billionaire customers of other firms, such as John Mauldin's firm, Mauldin Solutions LLC. This is a ...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unchanging opinions
Replies: 25
Views: 2151

Re: Unchanging opinions

By the way, who said "Do I contradict myself? Very well then, I contradict myself. I am large, I contain multitudes?" For answer, drag mouse from here >>>>>>>> Walt Whitman, "Song of Myself" <<<<<<<< to here.
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard vs. EJ vs. Fidelity
Replies: 13
Views: 941

Re: Vanguard vs. EJ vs. Fidelity

I had a rollover IRA account with Fidelity for about eight years, as well as a Fidelity-managed 401(k) at work. Fidelity seems to be pretty good at everything. I decided I wanted to consolidate my Fidelity and Vanguard accounts at a single firm and it was almost a coin-flip decision. That's because ...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unchanging opinions
Replies: 25
Views: 2151

Re: UNCHANGING OPINIONS

I don't think generic statements about whether it is good or bad to change your mind mean much. For example, I don't think the behavior of these students in this particular experiment has "important implications for the design of institutions such as the procedures used by ... juries." Our system of...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I see now why Rollovers can take FOREVER ....
Replies: 58
Views: 5223

Re: I see now why Rollovers can take FOREVER ....

Lucky me, when I was a substitute teacher I had no problems like this because the state in their wisdom automatically and involuntarily enrolled me in a 403(b) program with, IIRC, Great West. I did not have the option of not contributing, and the only investment option was a money market fund (real ...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%
Replies: 44
Views: 5047

Re: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%

Why bonds. In the last 10 years what would you have made. I'm 5% mm and 95% in stocks In the last 10 years I'm up 15% per year. Why would a 10 year bull market be a useful time frame for deciding why bonds? Bonds: because the market doesn't always go up for 10 years. Benjamin Roth, The Great Depres...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?
Replies: 52
Views: 5324

Re: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?

Employers don't offer a match entirely out of the goodness of their heart. They offer a match because it encourages participation in the plan. They need to do this to keep the plan available and useful to highly-compensated employees (HCE's). The SEC has rules requiring high participation to make su...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3289
Views: 994419

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Joaquim Maria Machado de Assis, Dom Masurro (in English translation), having read about half the stories in The Alienist and Other Stories of Nineteenth-Century Brazil . Very tart, ironic, and quite contemporary-sounding if translations by two different translators are to be believed. A New Yorker a...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%
Replies: 44
Views: 5047

Re: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%

Crazy. John C. Bogle has said "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds." And that's for the entire portfolio. Vanguard's own all-in-one LifeStrategy funds are funds-of-funds, and the whole portfolio only uses four different funds--Total Bond Market Index Fund and Total...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 5999

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

I agree with you, Norclom. It's all "assume a spherical cow." The arguments are "my spherical cow is better than your spherical cow." Factor mavens: spherical cows should have tilted axes. Index investors: cheap spherical cows are better than expensive spherical cows. Dividend investors: spherical H...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 5999

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

So many things in investing remind me of the remarks in a paper by Cowles and Jones, 1937, "Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action." This paper showed the phenomena now called "momentum" and "mean reversion" (under the names "inertia" and "reversals"). It gave convincing evidence for...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 4252

Re: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing

[Edited] This posting had been a comment about the article is still giving an access error at etf.com. Larry Swedroe sent me a PM with an explanation, and says he is rewriting it and reposting it and hopefully will have that done shortly.
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Boglehead is anti-entrepreneur?
Replies: 62
Views: 3840

Re: The Boglehead is anti-entrepreneur?

Let’s say someone came to us with a stable six figure 9-5 MegaCorp job, and well on his way to a comfortable retirement in his 50s. And he wants to know whether he should scratch the entrepreneurial itch of his that he’s had for years. How many of us would advise him to take he plunge? As above, th...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Boglehead is anti-entrepreneur?
Replies: 62
Views: 3840

Re: The Boglehead is anti-entrepreneur?

Would you advise a young person in their 20s or 30s, inclined to the entrepreneurial life, to go for it or stick to the Steady Eddie approach, and why? If someone were an entrepreneur I'd think they'd know it by their late twenties or early thirties. I can't imagine a born entrepreneur paying atten...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 24
Views: 1597

Re: Small cap tilt

Even the idea of a higher return can be challenged. One issue is that the higher return is completely attributable to one single time period of nine years: 1975-1983. A small-cap investor obtained no benefit from any holding period that didn't include those years. If I only had a dollar for every t...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 24
Views: 1597

Re: Small cap tilt

I don't use a small-cap tilt. The original paper (Banz 1981) that called attention to a small firm effect, now called the size factor, was based on a flawed data. When the data is corrected, the magnitude of the effect decreases. The effect is acknowledged by factor advocates to be one of the less s...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1583

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

A pending question from the discussion we had in your first scatter/matter post. So far, I did not adjust the $100 for (monthly) inflation in my own models, and this isn't consistent with the way PV does it - yeah, I should fix that. Please clarify how you do it first? [*]The performance is not bas...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to help teenager fix silly mistakes in math?
Replies: 50
Views: 3123

Re: How to help teenager fix silly mistakes in math?

The best way to expose errors is to find a solution two different ways. They should agree. If not, there is something wrong with one or both. A variation on this is to make a rough calculation as a sanity check. For example, what the sign should be? What order of magnitude are you expecting? Also, ...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1583

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Lognormal. That's the word I was searching for. We expect the distribution to be lognormal, not normal. And it isn't unrealistic, real-world distributions of financial outcomes are lognormal, not normal. I think I heard that somewhere, anyway. It isn't randomizing just the order, it is randomizing t...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1583

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Siamond, although this is tangential to your comments, and may not interest you, I've been thinking that rather than display the end state as a scatter cloud, it might be better to display the entire swath of time courses for the simulations. That is, the historic course, with the 500 different walk...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to help teenager fix silly mistakes in math?
Replies: 50
Views: 3123

Re: How to help teenager fix silly mistakes in math?

I don't have any answer. When I was a substitute teacher I would always tell students "Unless your teacher has told you to do it mentally, write it out. Write every single step, one step at a time. Don't try to combine steps in your head. You don't get extra points for doing it in your head. If you ...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?
Replies: 72
Views: 2913

Re: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?

(Shrug) Give me a good, accepted, consensus definition of "diversification," "risk," "concentration," and "tilt" and maybe we can get somewhere. Right now this thread has been pretty much talking past one another. In 1982, AT&T broke up. As it happened, I personally owned 40 shares of AT&T at the ti...