Search found 33921 matches

by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation
Replies: 8
Views: 729

Re: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation

I don't mean to criticize mentioning this article--I like financial porn as much as the next guy--but its main value, if it has any, is to illustrate the point that at any given instant in time there are huge differences in the predictions of the best informed and most knowledgeable observers. Of co...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?
Replies: 121
Views: 6515

Re: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?

...No one was slamming Rick Ferri or Bill Bernstein for offering investment information and advice, as a business as well as on the forum... It's a tricky area, but as a matter of fact these posters were fairly punctilious about not identifying their businesses in their posts. Rick Ferri actually c...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lets talk about some favorite index funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1404

Re: Lets talk about some favorite index funds?

Hoggrad, that's not really the way it works. The first step is to decide on your "favorite" asset classes, the kind of thing you want to invest in. In my case--let's call them "chosen" rather than favorite--they are U.S. stocks, international stocks, U.S. bonds in general, and then U.S. inflation-in...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?
Replies: 121
Views: 6515

Re: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?

Well, the actual subject material seems to be how to create your own financial plan. The "Fire your Financial Advisor" is just the hook. I'm reading the material correctly, this course does not include any direct human interaction; it's basically a book with online interactive worksheets and tests. ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP's F Fund outperforms the G Fund, so why is the G Fund favored?
Replies: 18
Views: 1213

Re: The F Fund outperforms the G Fund, so why is the G Fund favored?

I'm not a TSP participant, so I don't know what "all the negativity" is, maybe you could quote some actual examples. The F fund seems to be a Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index fund, just like Vanguard Total Bond (but with an even lower expense ratio) which is one of the most commonly suggested...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I sell Ishares and invest in index funds?
Replies: 5
Views: 430

Re: Should I sell Ishares and invest in index funds?

iShares is the family name of aeries of ETFs (exchange traded funds).They are (usually) a kind of index fund, but they have short ticker symbols that do not end in X. They are not single companies. They are funds of hundreds or thousands of stocks, that are bought and sold in a different way from mu...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?
Replies: 13
Views: 1332

Re: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?

Bill Gross left PIMCO in 2014, and joined Janus to manage JUCIX, the Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, with complete freedom to invest in the most promising bond issues whereever they might be found. VBMFX, The Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund is slavishly shackled to a bond index...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?
Replies: 13
Views: 1332

Re: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?

I saw this article: http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/16/investing/bonds-market-stocks-inflation/index.html Some scary quotes: - A sell-off in bonds could be "the Armageddon event for this year," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst for Think Markets UK, wrote in a report Tuesday. - Bill Gross, manager of ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3250
Views: 943985

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

jacques Tati's Playtime. Watchable? Yes. A masterpiece? Not to me.
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 69
Views: 5862

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

http://nordic.businessinsider.com/the-swedish-founder-of-bitcoin.com-one-of-the-largest-sites-in-the-industry-has-sold-all-his-bitcoins-because-its-as-good-as-useless--/ "USELESS" Stop buying Bitcoin! It's USELESS!!! Come buy my alternative, Bitcoin Cash! :shock: Which, it transpires, is also usele...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 83
Views: 5624

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

I believe I heard some market guru say that upside moves or toppings end when the bulk of the investing public (including new investors drawn to the excitement of the rising market?) runs out of new money to throw in Exactly what does that mean, and what data could you look at to find out whether i...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70
Replies: 24
Views: 2005

Re: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70

Since the term "emerging markets" wasn't coined or defined until 1981, and the first index wasn't created until IIRC 1988, and since when the index was created it only represented 1% of global cap weight, I doubt that the data is accurate, and even if accurate I doubt that it matters. It's like aski...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000
Replies: 26
Views: 2208

Re: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000

...In 1999, there was euphoria in the market. I don't get any sense of euphoria today. In fact, I'd say that until last year, this was the most unloved bull market I've ever heard of... I continue to think the difference is that the 1995-2000 bull market was piled on top of a solid and long-sustain...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 679

Re: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?

I don't think the Shiller (no C in his name) CAPE can be used for anything except predicting the stock market crash of 2000-2002, once.

And now that everyone knows about it, it won't work again.
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 126
Views: 16554

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

So you are saying that in addition to everything else, cryptocurrency users need to consider at least the possibility of a DOS attack intentionally directed at a particular currency? Grand.

Now, who might want to do a thing like that?
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham
Replies: 16
Views: 1551

Re: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham

The Intelligent Investor was written in 1949 when the Dow Jones was at 180. The passage I quoted is from the 1973 edition , and makes specific reference to not going over 50% unless an investor "is sure that he could view of market decline of the 1969-70 type with equanimity." It is very clear that...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham
Replies: 16
Views: 1551

Re: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham

One thing to remember is that Graham has been dead for 40 years and his great work was done 80 years ago. People didn't live as long, in general, and the idea of spending old age living above the garage of an adult child wasn't considered bad. Anyway, there wasn't as along a period for stocks to re...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham
Replies: 16
Views: 1551

Re: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham

His actual words: We have suggested as a fundamental guiding rule that the investor should never have less than 25% or more than 75% of his funds in common stocks, with a consequent inverse range of between 75% and 25% in bonds. There is an implication here that the standard division should be an eq...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 2477

Re: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?

With regard to emerging markets bonds, I don't want to over emphasize this, but: 1998. It's important because it has dropped out of the ten-year time window through which people often look. EMB, for example, only had its inception in 2007. FMNIX, Fidelity New Markets Income, is an emerging markets b...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 2477

Re: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?

Not me. I think you mean the Vanguard paper, Global fixed income: Considerations for U.S. investors . I think it's a good paper, and I've read it, fairly carefully, a couple of times. The interesting thing is that the conclusions I drew from it were: a) It doesn't make any sense to hold foreign bond...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Better Buy” Total US or International ?
Replies: 30
Views: 3045

Re: “Better Buy” Total US or International ?

I don't know and I don't care. It would never even occur to me to try to figure it out. The market has decided how much it wants to pay for U.S. and international stocks. When you get to a total global scale, 3,624 stocks in Vanguard Total [U.S.] Stock Market Index, 6,267 in Vanguard Total Internati...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?
Replies: 13
Views: 877

Re: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?

Here's another thing. Larry Swedroe and Jared Kizer wrote a good book called The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll Ever Need: The Good, the Flawed, the Bad, and the Ugly. If you want to take the next step in exploring preferred stocks, you should definitely read the chapter of the book th...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?
Replies: 13
Views: 877

Re: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?

...He says its the best of both the worlds - less risky than stock and higher returns than bond... Yes, they are less risky than stock and higher returns than bonds. No, they are not the "best of both worlds," they are just in between. The big question is: are they any better than simply investing ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 126
Views: 16554

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Buying bitcoin from a Las Vegas ATM Some Las Vegas restaurants accept payment in bitcoin, so I decided to try to buy bitcoin from a casino's bitcoin ATM. I lost all my money. Considering the exorbitant bitcoin ATM fee, I have real doubts as to whether or not bitcoin has a real future as a currency....
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you correct cashier mistakes?
Replies: 41
Views: 2120

Re: Do you correct cashier mistakes?

Yes, I do. I ask for corrections, either way. Sometimes I will forego some trivial "deal," a slightly-reduced price that doesn't ring up properly, if it's a small amount and it's busy. One of the truly mysterious moments in my life occurred a while ago, when I was buying a book at Brentano's in New ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nostalgic about old online brokerages that no longer exist
Replies: 43
Views: 4488

Re: Nostalgic about old online brokerages that no longer exist

I'm not nostalgic, but I do remember Schwab's $29.95 commission for online trades once seeming dirt cheap, miraculously cheap, unbelievably cheap. People who fuss over 0.05% expense ratios have no idea. Before the end of negotiated commissions, your typical brokerage transaction cost considerably mo...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7702

Re: Heading for a top?

First, I think that it is reasonable to restrict the phrase "market timing" to mean "the strategies followed by people who call themselves market timers." Market timers make huge moves, frequently all in or all out of chosen asset classes, based on "signals" derived from various sources--commonly te...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey's Millionaire Study
Replies: 59
Views: 10170

Re: Dave Ramsey's Millionaire Study

He doesn't care about the results of the survey. Surveys are just an effective way to get people involved with Ramsey. The survey results will show whatever he want them to show because most of the people who take it will be people who are attracted to Ramsey's ideas. In the case of widely publicize...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 4265

Re: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?

I think you need to get past your emotions first before you make any decisions. If I had a 200K windfall to invest, I would start by putting it into the boring old portfolio I have now. I would decouple the excitement of the windfall from the investment decision. The fact of money become available d...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2420

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

Who knows who is right or wrong, but considering Ben Graham was writing about ideas of value investing in 1930's and is the most well known investor of ALL TIME with many financial professionals following his work (Buffett being just one of them) and in the value premium is STILL around tells me it...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2745
Views: 877563

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

...I Just finished “Fire and Fury”... I have, too. I will say these things: 1) it is a long book that held my interest from beginning to end. The long excerpt in New York magazine did not contain everything in the book that was worth reading. 2) There is something delightful about the fact that thi...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2745
Views: 877563

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Alexander McCall Smith, Precious and Grace, number 278* in the "No. 1 Ladies' Detective Agency" series but I must say he keeps the quality fairly high for unbelievable number of books he writes... *Just kidding, but it must be like the eleventh or twelfth or so... I found "No. 1 Ladies' Detective A...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: video- How Dave Ramsey's Mutual Funds Have Performed Since 1973
Replies: 5
Views: 1261

Re: video- How Dave Ramsey's Mutual Funds Have Performed Since 1973

I listened to this Dave's rant and I found it very convenient that all his funds in his 401K according to him, beat the S&P index and other indexes over the last 10, 20, 30 and 40 years. I wonder where the catch is.... I'm not going to listen to the rant, but this is common in 401(k) plans; it migh...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2420

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

... Factor investors are making intelligent bets founded on rational analysis that certain systematic departures from the market will beat the market... It's not quite that, IMO. One claim made by factor investors is that you can use factors to tailor your portfolio asset allocation to achieve cert...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!
Replies: 27
Views: 5325

Re: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!

If anyone plays QuizUp... an online, real-time, one-on-one, rapidfire trivia-quiz game... then you know... it's kind of cool playing near the beginning of the year. In the first few hours of the year there are not very many people playing, and it will pop up a cheerful announcement that you are #1 i...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 7981

Re: Kodakcoin

And we all laughed at Venezuela... Sweden planning e-Krona Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, is spearheading international cooperation on the development of officially sanctioned cryptocurrencies and could be the first to launch its own... [HSBC talks of] the possible introduction of a so-called ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2420

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

...as TSM increasingly becomes a big bet on large cap growth at current valuations... NO. IT. ISN'T. Actually it is. TSM is 70% SP500. Look at TSM and SP500 they are basically the same returns, risk, and likely correlation coefficient. The 70% is such a large portion of TSM the 20% in mid, 7% in sm...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2420

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

Sorry if this is naive - what's the difference between factor investing and, admittedly sophisticated, backtesting? A dumb example - Let's say that over the last 30 years, stocks in my (indexed) portfolio at the very beginning of the alphabet - Apple - have performed better than stocks at the end o...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2420

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

...as TSM increasingly becomes a big bet on large cap growth at current valuations... NO. IT. ISN'T. That is exactly what makes the total stock market different from every other strategy: it is the only one that cannot be overgrazed. If you have a people in a cafeteria ladling Italian Wedding Soup ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7702

Re: Heading for a top?

When looking at the performance of the market since 2009, all statistics should be tempered by the observation that about half of it is measuring from the bottom of well. There is all the difference in the world between the bull market of 1995-2000, which was in the nature of an acceleration on top ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There really is more than one road to Dublin!
Replies: 6
Views: 763

Re: There really is more than one road to Dublin!

Image

We could even say: "Take the Malvern route to Dublin."

Image
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7702

Re: Heading for a top?

VBIAX is not a suitable benchmark because it contains zero, (0.00%) of international equities. Select another time frame where international funds did well and VBIAX should have done worse during that time frame. Of course, I suppose one could say, "Well, tactical asset allocators should have know ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Account Fraud
Replies: 7
Views: 1074

Re: Account Fraud

Keep in mind that Vanguard is not like PayPal or a bank bill-paying service. It is not designed to move money between two different people. Let's suppose a hacker got access to my account. What, exactly, could he do apart from causing vandalism or mischief just for the heck of it? He could initiate ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7702

Re: Heading for a top?

...Shifting from 60/40 to 50/50 when CAPE hits 40 something is just plain common sense - same as shifting 60/40 to 70/30 during/after a major drawdown. It seems like "just plain common sense," and yet tactical asset allocation funds, which were very popular in the 1980s, had an almost ludicrous rec...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When the Fed stops what do you do?
Replies: 17
Views: 2324

Re: When the Fed stops what do you do?

IInflation seems to be the predominant concern but I am allowing for a moderate increase in inflation by having a necessary SWR lower than the interest rate of the 30-year Treasuries. Who says that an inflation increase has to be "moderate"? You may not be old enough to remember what happened to in...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard merchandise
Replies: 4
Views: 464

Re: Vanguard merchandise

Pretty sure it's long gone. It used to be at http://www.vanguardgear.com/shop/ and it's been noticed for maybe a year that there's nothing but a blank page or an error at that URL.
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much more return would DFA funds produce?
Replies: 11
Views: 786

Re: How much more return would DFA funds produce?

Backtests, hindsight, lantern-off-the-stern, past performance yadda-yadda. I'm going to use one of the model portfolios published in 1998 in Larry Swedroe's The Only Guide To Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need: Index Funds and Beyond--The Way Smart Money Creates Wealth Today . I implemente...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much more return would DFA funds produce?
Replies: 11
Views: 786

Re: How much more return would DFA funds produce?

There's no reasonable way to answer this question. You might look at the Bogleheads Wiki article on Dimensional Fund Advisors for some notes on DFA. My personal belief is that you need to assess the value that you feel you get from the advisor. This is hard to do, of course, but it probably isn't an...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse
Replies: 35
Views: 5566

Re: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse

nedsaid wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:17 pm
The thing is, even though bonds might be overpriced they are still far less volatile than stocks. For me the concern isn't that bonds will drop 50% but that they won't keep up with inflation.
Well said.