Search found 35292 matches

by nisiprius
Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to get a $100 bill?
Replies: 32
Views: 2356

Re: Where to get a $100 bill?

In my part of the country, no, most banks will not exchange money unless you are a depositor. They really won't. I don't know exactly why not. I'll ask a friend who's a retired teller.
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in oil?
Replies: 10
Views: 297

Re: Investing in oil?

Be really careful. I don't think there is an index fund or ETF that tracks "the price," that is to say the spot price of a barrel of oil. I don't know how it would do it. It is fairly difficult to follow the price of a commodity, that is to say the "spot price." The problem is that if you actually b...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to get a $100 bill?
Replies: 32
Views: 2356

Re: Where to get a $100 bill?

Just a crazy idea, but many years ago I went to a business meeting that happened to be in a casino hotel in Reno. I was kind of shocked to discover that the ATM machine there only dispensed $100 bills. I don't know if that's true everywhere. So if there's a casino nearby you could try that. Also, I ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 45
Views: 2456

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

To me, bonds are just a a way to adjust risk and return of a stock portfolio to lower values that match my personal risk tolerance. I feel that: Any "low correlation," diversification, MPT benefit of stocks and bonds playing off against each other, is only significant for long-term bonds. But even f...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 15, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 92
Views: 5869

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

All leverages are bad. Our friends at the Wharton School would disagree with this statement. In finance, it is taught that debt can lower a firm's cost of capital , allowing it to be more profitable. This is the reason why companies such as AAPL issue bonds to buy back shares of stocks. They are bo...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are the returns published annual or cumulative?
Replies: 2
Views: 231

Re: Are the returns published annual or cumulative?

In those 1-3-5-10 year tables, the returns are, in my experience, always annual ized . This is also called "compound annual growth rate" or CAGR. Here's what annual ized means. Unlike bank accounts, investment values fluctuate a lot. They aren't the same every year and there may be losses in some ye...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 92
Views: 5869

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

... You can play around with language and no categories are precise. However: 1) I don't think a mortgage on the house you live in is "good," it's more of a "necessary evil." 2) Is a mortgage on the house you live in "leverage?" It's debt, it's borrowing, but is it "leverage?" A dictionary defines ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5799

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

stlutz wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:39 pm
...Nisiprius and Swedroe aren't really talking about the same thing...(Nisiprius' point)...(Swedroe's point)...(nisi's point)... (Swedroe's point)..(nisi's point).
Nice! I'll confirm that you understand my point of view accurately.
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At last: the answer to longevity planning for retirement spending
Replies: 11
Views: 784

Re: At last: the answer to longevity planning for retirement spending

How accurate is "accurate?" "More accurate" doesn't necessarily mean "accurate." "But at the older ages, it becomes a little more random who is going to die, it’s almost about bad luck.” That hardly lives up to the promise of "a blood test that reveals how long a person has left to live." Among 50- ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 92
Views: 5869

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

You can play around with language and no categories are precise. However: 1) I don't think a mortgage on the house you live in is "good," it's more of a "necessary evil." 2) Is a mortgage on the house you live in "leverage?" It's debt, it's borrowing, but is it "leverage?" A dictionary defines "leve...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5799

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

Larry Swedroe sent me this PM: sorry but this is also wrong: In order to believe that market beta has a persistent and worthwhile premium, one needs to believe only that businesses are capable of making money and that (in a loosely-coupled general sort of long-term way) stocks of money-making compan...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the historical real return of total bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1273

Re: what is the historical real return of total bond?

I'd really like an estimate of how total bond may do over the next 20-30 years. As would I. A large chunk of my retirement portfolio is in Total Bond. (With no plans to change). Unfortunately, any long-term historical chart of pretty much anything to do with bonds is going to look more or less like...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do insurance agents add value? How?
Replies: 24
Views: 1381

Re: Do insurance agents add value? How?

???? You didn't get a notice from the insurance company itself, in the form of a paper, printed, USPS-mailed letter?
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel and the business cycles
Replies: 5
Views: 404

Re: Siegel and the business cycles

Some verbatim quotations from Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run 5/E , chapter 15, "Stocks and the Business Cycle." The chapter begins by quoting Paul Samuelson, 1966: "The stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions." Siegel writes ...the markets and the economy are often ou...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5799

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

Larry Swedroe has PMed me to say: IMO big and common mistake you don't need as you say to believe that another factor has higher risk adjusted return, It can even have lower risk-adjusted return in isolation and add value because it adds a unique/independent and thus low correlating risk which might...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5799

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

...So you don't need to assume market inefficiency. It is sufficient to assume merely that different investors care more or less about their exposure to different sources (or dimensions) of risk... On the one hand, you're correct. And it meshes in well with the quotation from Fama that I cited. On ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel and the business cycles
Replies: 5
Views: 404

Re: Siegel and the business cycles

Actually I think this is a misrepresentation of what Siegel really says in the book, and the quotation is taken out of context. Siegel goes to considerable pains to point out that it is hard to predict recessions, most people who have tried have failed badly, and the National Bureau of Economic Rese...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5799

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

...The point is that market beta is just another factor, no more and no less... I think it is very different from other factors, in two aspects: ease of access, and coexistence with the efficient market hypothesis. 1) You get a good loading on market beta at no additional cost once you decide to in...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7172

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

... http://i.imgur.com/PAn9bsOl.jpg ... I think the inclusion of emerging markets is a distraction. It's fantasy football, for two reasons. I know Dimson & al tried to gen up some kind of numbers, but: the term "emerging markets" was not even coined until 1981; the first emerging markets index wasn...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5799

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

Larry Swedroe has PM-ed me with two comments on my posting . The first refers to my quotation from Russell Kinnel of Morningstar. saying is that expense ratio is the most powerful predictor -- you misused the statement--as should say when loadings on factors are the same. The second is note also the...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5799

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

I can't reproduce your results. Could you copy and paste the link from PortfolioVisualizer? Look for the word "link" just after Portfolio Analysis Results. Usually you can copy that link, probably by right-clicking on it and choosing from a list of options. Then paste it into a posting. That was en...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When does frugal cross the line to cheapskate?
Replies: 136
Views: 9144

Re: When does frugal cross the line to cheapskate?

If your frugality is making someone unhappy, you've crossed the line. That someone could be somebody else ("stingy,") or it could be you ("miserly.")
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5799

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

That plot is only 6 years of data. I know, but the three funds Larry Swedroe named have only existed for about six years. I commented later in my post on what happens if I first change VSIAX to VISVX, and then remove BOSBX. But I really wanted to include BOSBX as it had both the highest expenses an...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5799

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

When has anyone recommending or selling a fund with a higher expense ratio ever said anything other than "yes, it costs a little more, but it's worth it?" And yet, Morningstar continues to say, most recently in 2016, that (my boldfacing) Fund Fees Predict Future Success or Failure The expense ratio ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?
Replies: 14
Views: 1281

Re: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?

There have been some drastic swings Is this true? It sure doesn't feel like the movement has been extraordinary. I have not looked at specific data compared to historical norms. I don't see anything "drastic." I've drawn circles by hand around "big swings:" yellow for those that look about the same...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7172

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Over 1921 to 1996, the compound capital return on U.S. equities was 6.95 percent . . . . the return on the global comprehensive index was 7.25 percent. How is this to be reconciled with Dimson & al's findings that for 1900-2015, total real return (CAGR) was: 6.4% for the U.S. 5.0% for the world 4.3...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Great Investor has only one word of advice
Replies: 7
Views: 1257

Re: A Great Investor has only one word of advice

1) The article does not cite any source for the supposed Markowitz quotation. Therefore, it is impossible to find the context and understand exactly what Markowitz meant by "diversify" here. 2) The article contains 30 words from Markowitz and 128 words from Cullen Roche. And that's only counting wor...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone take naps at work?
Replies: 93
Views: 5283

Re: Anyone take naps at work?

The answer is that while I was working, a) yes, I did take naps, and b) I didn't do it too openly. I generally took my naps out in the car in the parking lot, during lunch break, and I usually parked my car on a sort of second section of the parking lot, built when the company headcount was higher, ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tick Tubes and boxes. Permethrin Fipronil
Replies: 22
Views: 1707

Re: Tick Tubes and boxes. Permethrin Fipronil

Pretty tangential, but given the concern with ticks... ...has anyone else done a double-take at the passage in Tom Sawyer concerning what I can only call a "pet tick?" Tom is so enamored of the tick that he trades Huck his tooth for it. "Say—what’s that?” “Nothing but a tick.” “Where’d you get him?”...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tick Tubes and boxes. Permethrin Fipronil
Replies: 22
Views: 1707

Re: Tick Tubes and boxes. Permethrin Fipronil

Last summer we had a bunch of clothing treated with a permethrin treatment called Insect Shield. A web search will turn them up. Look at the tab on "IS your clothes." The biggy, I'm sorry to say, is that I just can't say from our own experience whether or not it was effective. Our trips since we got...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7172

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Are we comparing all S&P 500 vs. S&P 500/EAFE mix, or all S&P 500 vs. S&P 500/xUS stock (which would of course include emerging markets)? linear to log graphs, now a complete axing of 20% of international stocks - the most uncorrelated to US stock group i might add. It's hard to keep up with the ch...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7172

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

The presentation is described as illustrating 1) the "value" of international stocks, and 2) the "diversification benefits." What the presentation actually shows is that international stocks have performed quite differently from US stocks. They have, and by quite a lot. They have leapfrogged each ot...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7172

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Appreciate the good graphical presentation, thanks. Some will always quibble with the choice of start/end dates, but decades are about as defensible and unbiased a choice as any, in my view. An example of the power and effectiveness of simple data visualizations to perhaps break down preconceived i...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow 40000 prediction for 2025
Replies: 44
Views: 3801

Re: Dow 40000 prediction for 2025

Knowing the past isn't the same thing as predicting the future. Unless you have interesting definitions for those words. :wink: Sure it is. I just predict it after the fact. Quite seriously, I add things to my "bucket list" after I've done them. That way I don't get fretful at realizing that life i...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Masterbath Remodel - Tub or No Tub ?
Replies: 57
Views: 3123

Re: Masterbath Remodel - Tub or No Tub ?

We did what we wanted. We didn't think about resale value. We're both retired, getting on in years, and somewhat concerned about falls, and guilty about the water and energy usage of a tub. What we wanted was a nice big shower with a comfortable seat and grab bars, so that's what we got. Our house i...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 75
Views: 9206

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

According to Willam J. Bernstein it's normal for most of the stock market's total return to come from a few "superstocks," and that is why it is important to own the whole market. In 2000, William J. Bernstein wrote a website posting on The Fifteen-Stock Diversification Myth . His point was the impo...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hyperbitcoinization?
Replies: 14
Views: 1311

Re: Hyperbitcoinization?

"Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no. " The value of $100 million per coin is based on the assumption that by the year 2030 bitcoin will "displace legacy currencies and become the only method of value exchange." It's almost a joke that business plans assume that...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3292

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

Could those of you who use advisors find out if you can buy Stone Ridge funds through your advisor? What I am curious to know is whether they are available through most good, big advisors, or whether they are hard to get even if you have an advisor.
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow 40000 prediction for 2025
Replies: 44
Views: 3801

Re: Dow 40000 prediction for 2025

The book "Dow 36,000" by Glassman and Hassett is interesting. It, too, presented arguably reasonable sounding assumptions... perhaps. They presented it as being based on math, and as a consequence of the Jeremy Siegel & al. having shown--their presentation, not Siegel's--that stocks were not really ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I move all my investments to Vanguard?
Replies: 31
Views: 2205

Re: Should I move all my investments to Vanguard?

I wouldn't be in any big hurry. I am surprised by what you said about Fidelity support "leaving much to be desired." I had accounts at both Fidelity and Vanguard for about ten years, and I personally found that, for what I needed, customer service at both was about the same: very good, not perfect. ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50/50 blend of VWENX+VUSUX provides ridiculous risk adjusted return vs 100% stocks
Replies: 22
Views: 2612

Re: 50/50 blend of VWENX+VUSUX provides ridiculous risk adjusted return vs 100% stocks

The big problem with all such investigations is that it is hard to believe just how much financial data varies with endpoints. Backtesting is truly treacherous. Over any given period of time, you will always find seemingly simple portfolio combinations that happen to give "ridiculous" risk adjusted ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great investment books that are less well known?
Replies: 15
Views: 1274

Re: Great investment books that are less well known?

The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth YES. It's great in so many ways. The contemporary view from inside is so different from the historical view years later. I don't mean anything polemical, no revisionism, nothing like that, it's just that the concerns and the point of view are different...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs
Replies: 83
Views: 4930

Re: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs

...While I only understand very little about factor investing, I ask the question, is it just a new way to open new funds. Or new marketing.... So, now 3 years later should I consider changing my way of investing again? And how do I decide what would be better for me? Factor investing is fine-tunin...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?
Replies: 30
Views: 2192

Re: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?

1) I don't use tilts or factors personally. 2) The the Bogleheads investment philosophy isn't sacred, but it's pretty good. So, let's look at the ten points with regard to a small-cap value tilt. 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great investment books that are less well known?
Replies: 15
Views: 1274

Re: Great investment books that are less well known?

The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence, by Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard Hudson. It's not exactly poorly known, but nobody talks about it because if he's right, then it knocks the underpinnings from almost everything else. I have the impression that mainstream finance wr...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"
Replies: 58
Views: 6496

Re: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"

https://imgur.com/VJgfjzR.png Google Books link Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue to Climb Through the End of the Decade - And How to Profit From Them , Feb 22, 2005, David Lareah, chief economist for the National Association of Real...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Socially Responsible Funds (I want to be socially irresponsible)
Replies: 34
Views: 1801

Re: Socially Responsible Funds (I want to be socially irresponsible)

Hello - my spouse is now getting hung up on socially responsible investing and I pretty much could care less ...I'll take you at your word, you don't care about her using an off-center investment strategy... other than the extent to which this is paralyzing spouse from investing her cash. OK. So yo...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value ETFs Are Sector Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 869

Re: Value ETFs Are Sector Funds

Why is this a problem? If the factor mavens are correct, why do you care what sectors the factors happen to be found in? It seems to me that in the factor model, if sectors as such mattered, they would show up as factors of their own.
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 58
Views: 6199

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

And here's another observation. Unless I'm missing something, these ETFS are literally hidden from view on the "investor" website. Can anyone find a combination of filters that shows them in their Vanguard ETF list?
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 58
Views: 6199

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

I just love all this factor / smart beta stuff. Makes my life so much easier, because it gets investors to focus on irrelevant things, thinking that these things actually matters in the big picture of reaching financial goals. Bill +1 Don't try this at home. I don't know how Vanguard is pitching th...