Search found 35735 matches

by nisiprius
Sat Sep 22, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 39
Views: 2591

Re: Small cap tilt

Here's a link to the Fund Performance page, in case you want to play with different dates etc.: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=SCFUNDS&benchmark=VFINX&startDate=1%2F1%2F1992&endDate=09%2F21%2F2018 PortfolioVisualizer links don't preserve custom portfolios or assets....
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 66
Views: 2896

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

...None of what you listed sounds that appealing. No control. No cash flow. No inflation-hedging leverage. Takes too long to achieve FI with the 4% rule. Mediocre tax treatment. I don't want liquidity - too much liquidity and people start making stupid decisions (human emotion)... Different strokes...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter-scatter sidebar: sequence of returns in accumulation
Replies: 2
Views: 158

Matter-scatter sidebar: sequence of returns in accumulation

Part 1: Introduction , Appendix: Methodology. Brief notes: 1) In these Monte Carlo simulations, the return for a given month is varied by randomly choosing the actual historical return or the actual historic return for an adjacent month. 2) They show the final value from $100 monthly contributions ...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 66
Views: 2896

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

...The asset classes couldn't be any more different... Agreed. ...You can't do anything with stocks that you can do with real estate... Aw, c'mon. Statements that seem to assert that one investment or the other is simply "better" than the other aren't worth making or reading. But, rising to the bai...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SPY + VB = VTI ?
Replies: 5
Views: 247

Re: SPY + VB = VTI ?

The obvious suggestion would be an "extended market index" or "completion index" fund or ETF. The Vanguard mutual fund, VEXMX, and its ETF counterpart, VXF are examples of such funds. They invest in the total market, cap-weighted, after removing the stocks in the S&P 500. An allocation of about 80% ...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P sectors are changing
Replies: 8
Views: 601

Re: S&P sectors are changing

And yet it is a common misunderstanding. The financial press reported in 2017, when they decided to elevate REITs into their own sector, that changes in the sector percentages within in the S&P index were going to cause problems for S&P 500 index funds . The real question is why anybody would change...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Im going to die somewhere between Bankruptcy and $20 million
Replies: 30
Views: 5374

Re: Im going to die somewhere between Bankruptcy and $20 million

It's telling you the truth. The variability of financial asset returns is just that big. To be sure, you probably should not be looking at the actual extreme cases--you don't say if you are looking at the literal entire range shown by the simulations; usually they will show something like the 10% an...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 52
Views: 6722

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

The sole argument against active investing is as follows: after fees, passive always beats active. It is a necessary corollary, therefore, that before fees, active investors do as well, if not better, than passive. Therefore, if you do the active investing yourself, you will do exactly the same, if...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Android podcast app that remembers where you are in podcast?
Replies: 15
Views: 557

Re: Android podcast app that remembers where you are in podcast?

I gave up on Pocket Casts because my smartphone is borderline on storage, and there is either a bug in Pocket Casts or in Android or both. For reasons I was never able to determine, despite configuring Pocket Casts to store podcasts on my SD card, and despite my seeing all the podcast .mp3 files on ...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New [Vanguard] environmental, social, governance (ESG) ETFs
Replies: 25
Views: 1644

Re: New [Vanguard] environmental, social, governance (ESG) ETFs

Only such fund I've heard of is VICEX, which of course is not a low-cost index fund or ETF. ETFdb suggests these ETF Alternatives to VICEX SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF SPDN Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares Those all look to me like first-rate altern...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 52
Views: 6722

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

His particular example of a specific problem involving index investing is: remember what happened to small-cap gold stocks last year when the massive VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) was forced to restructure its portfolio? They were knocked down despite having incredible fundamentals. N...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."
Replies: 10
Views: 1026

Re: Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."

International wasn’t removed from the 10 funder though. It still contains emerging. At 6% or so it shouldn’t make a huge difference, but EM is volatile! :oops: That's what comes of not being familiar with DFA ticker symbols. Try this. I'm correcting my earlier post. Portfolio 1 (Green) VFINX Vangua...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Physical Banking - Any benefits anymore?
Replies: 104
Views: 5182

Re: Physical Banking - Any benefits anymore?

The medallion signature guarantee is the big one. The need for one pops up unexpectedly, and often rather urgently. ...I opened an account at local banks twice solely for Medallion service... That's interesting. How long did you have to have the account before they would give you the medallion signa...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"
Replies: 28
Views: 4386

Re: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"

...Sounds about right... they guys that predicted 2008... also followed up and have said the DOW is going to 36,000 ... we have some room to run and a few more years so I'd say it is tracking to those predictions... See if you can find names, I'm really curious to read the actual words of someone, ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 66
Views: 2896

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Housing prices for not quite 400 years, in Herengracht, a residential district of Amsterdam. Alas, I haven't been able to find out what happened after 2008. Doubling from 1628 to 2008 = an average real return of +0.52% / year (CAGR) Incidentally, notice that money invested in 1803 suffered about a -...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HELOC as a bonds replacement for drawing down from in a downturn?
Replies: 30
Views: 1544

Re: HELOC as a bonds replacement for drawing down from in a downturn?

Check what happened to people with HELOCs during the financial crisis. Debt is not the same thing as money. Lines of credit are only available when a bank has money available that it wants to lend . And when is that? Good times, when, in your scenario, you don't need the loan. They are not guarantee...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the risk in buying Purchased Money Funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 405

Re: What is the risk in buying Purchased Money Funds?

Yes, it's interesting. To my mind, money market funds were "conceived in sin" because they were patently an attempt to provide a banking service without being subject to banking regulations. The safety of bank accounts is backed by the FDIC, and it's not an empty promise. The FDIC bales out deposito...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."
Replies: 10
Views: 1026

Re: Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."

Perhaps the following question was answered by you in another matter scatter post, but ... It seems that there is no free lunch in that all the portfolios with a higher average performance have a higher standard deviation. If one adjusts the equity:bond asset allocation to get the same standard dev...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any opinions of this fund? Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX)
Replies: 15
Views: 1150

Re: any opinions of this fund? Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX)

...It's important to note that the Dividend Growth strategy didn't begin until some time in the early 2000's. This was the Vanguard Utilities Fund before that... :oops: Oops. Effective December 6, 2002, the fund changed its investment objective and concentration policy. Prior to making these modifi...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Majority of working-age Americans have no retirement savings”
Replies: 73
Views: 3825

Re: “Majority of working-age Americans have no retirement savings”

So where do all these retired people that I see all over the US come from? I suspect people do not tell pollsters the truth about their savings. +1 Why in the world would I want to reveal my financial status to a government agency? You don't have to. Since all of your bank and investment accounts a...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies
Replies: 29
Views: 1663

Re: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies

...I have some experience with changing Medigap plans... [Horror story.] And, an existing plan member who is trying to make a specific change is much more likely to get correct answers than a prospective buyer, asking hypothetical questions prior to purchase. The prospective buyer hasn't got a chan...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can predictions on currency depreciaction be any more accurate than those of the stock market?
Replies: 13
Views: 784

Re: Can predictions on currency depreciaction be any more accurate than those of the stock market?

...I've come across this video where Dalio speaks of the economy as of a machine, governed by law of cause and effect... I personally believe that the atmosphere, unlike the economy, really is a machine, governed by the laws of cause and effect. And yet, yesterday, Accuweather predicted "no precipi...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any opinions of this fund? Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX)
Replies: 15
Views: 1150

Re: any opinions of this fund? Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX)

Your wife (and you) need to go back to the decision to buy this fund in the first place. If she did not write down her reason for selecting it, she should remember, as best as she can, why she chose it and what she expected from it. This doesn't need to be detailed or very profound, but as best she ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Majority of working-age Americans have no retirement savings”
Replies: 73
Views: 3825

Re: “Majority of working-age Americans have no retirement savings”

I'm not going to be the one to report this, since it's a grey area and particularly since the discussion has stayed civil, but I'd like to remind everyone of forum policy , particularly the section on "unacceptable topics" that includes: discussions of the crimes, shortcomings or stupidity of other ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2343

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

It's a rough rule-of-thumb relationship. Following your comment, "If bonds are for stability, shouldn't I go for short term bonds where the NAV is stable and yields will track changing interest rates?" The NAV is only relatively stable, of course. I would ask, "according to that reasoning, why shoul...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are there so few long-term investors?
Replies: 18
Views: 2684

Re: Why are there so few long-term investors?

I don't know, but when I exchanged my holding of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund for the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, circa 2005, I created "turnover" in the 500 Index Fund without changing my opinion of myself as a long-term investor. There have been, in the past, many such exchanges of one ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What can go wrong in shorting Tilray, and can EU investors short it (and how?)
Replies: 29
Views: 1219

Re: What can go wrong in shorting Tilray, and can EU investors short it (and how?)

... You are, in effect, short volatility. They have more capital than you do, they are long volatility in effect Volatility can go both ways, so if the stock is volatile and has a big drop in value, I win. So I am not sure what you meant by that... Probability theory, gambler's ruin, St. Petersburg...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies
Replies: 29
Views: 1663

Re: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies

Well, see, that's exactly the kind of thing that was driving me crazy when I was looking at Medicare Advantage plans. If you ask "can I switch back if I don't like it," things get derailed while you listen to is a series of complicated and confusing rules and options that take a while to figure out-...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."
Replies: 10
Views: 1026

Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."

Part 1: Introduction , Part 2: Bond fund choices, , Part 3, International bonds, Part 4: Bond allocation . Part 5: International stocks Part 6: Expense ratios Part 7: Bonds during the financial crisis Part 8: Small-caps and micro-caps Appendix: Methodology Brief notes: 1) In these Monte Carlo simul...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies
Replies: 29
Views: 1663

Re: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies

I can't answer your question. I ended up on Traditional Medicare with Medigap (and have been very happy) because at the time, in my state, I couldn't get a straight answer to a similar question. The printed material, the insurer's website, and what the insurer's rep told me were significantly differ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle agree on the formula for long-term success: 'Buy and hold' "
Replies: 6
Views: 975

Re: "Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle agree on the formula for long-term success: 'Buy and hold' "

Taylor probably has a long list of "gems" on the subject, but I think I'll add what Jeremy Siegel has said in Stocks for the Long Run 5/E . The boldfacing is mine. These are from chapter 15, "Stocks and the Business Cycle." If you can predict the business cycle, you can beat the buy-and-hold strateg...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With expense-free funds, are other Fidelity fund obsolete?
Replies: 7
Views: 521

Re: With expense-free funds, are other Fidelity fund obsolete?

Both Fidelity and Vanguard's fund lineup has gotten cluttered up with old funds that that seem to have been superseded by new! improved! funds. A Vanguard example is the Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US fund, VFWIX, and the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund, VGTSX. I don't know the reasons ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I see now why Rollovers can take FOREVER ....
Replies: 58
Views: 5346

Re: I see now why Rollovers can take FOREVER ....

To the best of my recollection there have been about two occasions when an account transfer has worked quickly and smoothly. Both were "ACAT transfers" of entire retirement accounts , and they took well under five business days and went right the first time. The six or eight other times there have a...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I left Wealthfront
Replies: 40
Views: 11357

Re: Why I left Wealthfront

...At the end of the day, I'm not saying Wealthfront will fail... Wealthfront has succeeded in staying in business under the same name, but in my view Wealthfront has failed about four times to find a long-term sustainable strategy. Wealthfront has changed so many times during its brief existence t...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS
Replies: 28
Views: 2157

Re: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS

vineviz named "Vanguard FTSE All-Wld ex-US SmCp ETF (VSS)," as one of the four that backtested best, in a backward-looking exploration of about 100 ETFs. It had inception in 2010. He chose to look at ISZE and HDEF. That had the side effect of cutting the time period to about three years. By using VS...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS
Replies: 28
Views: 2157

Re: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS

This is the difference we are looking at, i.e. this is the chart I see when I click on the PortfolioVisualizer link vineviz provided.

Image
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unchanging opinions
Replies: 25
Views: 2168

Re: Unchanging opinions

We will have an interesting real-world text the next time I see my doctor. A few years ago, due to another issue, I said to her "I wonder if I really should be taking 81 mg. of aspirin per day? My doctor told me to do it about twenty years ago, but not for any specific problem I had." She said "hmmm...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend Following failure
Replies: 7
Views: 706

Re: Trend Following failure

Does this look like a disaster to you? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=09%2F16%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS
Replies: 28
Views: 2157

Re: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS

1) I understand perfectly that "Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS" is verbal shorthand for "Four International ETFs that would have been better diversifiers than VXUS," but it would please me if you would edit the thread title to be strictly accurate. 2) In October 2015,...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Costly race to bottom on mutual fund fees”
Replies: 13
Views: 1758

Re: “Costly race to bottom on mutual fund fees”

...I will change my mind when I meet my first Vanguard customer who is a billionaire... He's "investment strategist at Mauldin Economics." Missing from his comment is the assertion that he's met any billionaire customers of other firms, such as John Mauldin's firm, Mauldin Solutions LLC. This is a ...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unchanging opinions
Replies: 25
Views: 2168

Re: Unchanging opinions

By the way, who said "Do I contradict myself? Very well then, I contradict myself. I am large, I contain multitudes?" For answer, drag mouse from here >>>>>>>> Walt Whitman, "Song of Myself" <<<<<<<< to here.
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard vs. EJ vs. Fidelity
Replies: 13
Views: 961

Re: Vanguard vs. EJ vs. Fidelity

I had a rollover IRA account with Fidelity for about eight years, as well as a Fidelity-managed 401(k) at work. Fidelity seems to be pretty good at everything. I decided I wanted to consolidate my Fidelity and Vanguard accounts at a single firm and it was almost a coin-flip decision. That's because ...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unchanging opinions
Replies: 25
Views: 2168

Re: UNCHANGING OPINIONS

I don't think generic statements about whether it is good or bad to change your mind mean much. For example, I don't think the behavior of these students in this particular experiment has "important implications for the design of institutions such as the procedures used by ... juries." Our system of...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I see now why Rollovers can take FOREVER ....
Replies: 58
Views: 5346

Re: I see now why Rollovers can take FOREVER ....

Lucky me, when I was a substitute teacher I had no problems like this because the state in their wisdom automatically and involuntarily enrolled me in a 403(b) program with, IIRC, Great West. I did not have the option of not contributing, and the only investment option was a money market fund (real ...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%
Replies: 44
Views: 5140

Re: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%

Why bonds. In the last 10 years what would you have made. I'm 5% mm and 95% in stocks In the last 10 years I'm up 15% per year. Why would a 10 year bull market be a useful time frame for deciding why bonds? Bonds: because the market doesn't always go up for 10 years. Benjamin Roth, The Great Depres...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?
Replies: 52
Views: 5360

Re: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?

Employers don't offer a match entirely out of the goodness of their heart. They offer a match because it encourages participation in the plan. They need to do this to keep the plan available and useful to highly-compensated employees (HCE's). The SEC has rules requiring high participation to make su...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3290
Views: 995146

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Joaquim Maria Machado de Assis, Dom Masurro (in English translation), having read about half the stories in The Alienist and Other Stories of Nineteenth-Century Brazil . Very tart, ironic, and quite contemporary-sounding if translations by two different translators are to be believed. A New Yorker a...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%
Replies: 44
Views: 5140

Re: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%

Crazy. John C. Bogle has said "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds." And that's for the entire portfolio. Vanguard's own all-in-one LifeStrategy funds are funds-of-funds, and the whole portfolio only uses four different funds--Total Bond Market Index Fund and Total...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6048

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

I agree with you, Norclom. It's all "assume a spherical cow." The arguments are "my spherical cow is better than your spherical cow." Factor mavens: spherical cows should have tilted axes. Index investors: cheap spherical cows are better than expensive spherical cows. Dividend investors: spherical H...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6048

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

So many things in investing remind me of the remarks in a paper by Cowles and Jones, 1937, "Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action." This paper showed the phenomena now called "momentum" and "mean reversion" (under the names "inertia" and "reversals"). It gave convincing evidence for...