Search found 36346 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?
Replies: 76
Views: 4832

Re: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?

I finally read a Charmin label. They did put an asterisk * on their claim, referencing a note that they are comparing to a "standard Charmin roll". (I wonder if any store would sell standard Charmin rolls. Maybe they could use them as a trial sample size.) They can define it any way they want. Like...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is dividend "growth" investing?
Replies: 18
Views: 1333

Re: What is dividend "growth" investing?

Like most strategies and theories, "dividend stock" investing comes in several flavors. Some dividend stock enthusiasts believe that dividend stocks as a category are just plain better than the others, because the discipline of having to pay out real dollars forces company executives to be prudent a...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do trading curbs make sense?
Replies: 9
Views: 591

Re: Do trading curbs make sense?

...I seem to remember that when trading curbs were introduced in 1987 in response to "computer based trading" as it was called, the purpose was to let the little guy get in and sell before the bottom fell out... I sure don't remember that as the purpose. The purpose was to prevent computer-based tr...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?
Replies: 76
Views: 4832

Re: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?

The restroom cleaning industry presents numbers: https://purozone.com/maintenance-news/whats-in-your-case-of-toilet-paper https://imgur.com/QRAPIC6.png Thanks. Again attesting that the "standard" is 500 sheets, not 71. It is pretty hard for me to bridge the gap between a claim that a 426-sheet "sup...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Warren Buffett suggests you read this 19th century poem when the market is tanking"
Replies: 26
Views: 3295

Re: "Warren Buffett suggests you read this 19th century poem when the market is tanking"

I was almost sure it was "If--", but kept being bothered by doubts as to whether it was "a 19th century poem."

It turns out that it is a 20th century poem.
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Factor Tilts, Such As Small Value, Increase Idiosyncratic Risk?
Replies: 50
Views: 2100

Re: Do Factor Tilts, Such As Small Value, Increase Idiosyncratic Risk?

Historically, the optimal allocation to US small cap stocks from a diversification perspective has been pretty stable about 43% within a reasonably narrow range of +/- 5%. Could I ask the source of your data for the last remark? It is more important to ask for the definition of "diversification." V...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Impressive film in theater Dec 17 and 27 only
Replies: 14
Views: 2268

Re: Impressive film in theater Dec 17 and 27 only

Saw it today. Thank you, letsgobobby. Really good, perfectly done, don't know quite what to say about it except that it's great and if you think you'd have any interest in it, you should see it when and if you can. I don't know what the future plans for this movie are. Basically, it's just a movie (...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach says passive investing has reached 'mania' status and says investors should avoid index funds
Replies: 52
Views: 5052

Re: Gundlach says passive investing has reached 'mania' status and says investors should avoid index funds

A "mania" occurs when irrational demand drives up asset prices to an insane level. Exactly what prices have been driven up to insane levels by passive investors? For example, what index ETFs are trading at three times their NAV because of crazy investors being willing to pay more for stocks when the...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not Fed's job to fix irrational market
Replies: 18
Views: 2115

Re: Not Fed's job to fix irrational market

But as long as we're discussing this, I think Powell Tom Porcelli of RBC Capital Markets is being dryly ironic and assumes that people know what the Fed's job is . Since 1977 the Fed has operated under what is (mysteriously) usually called the "dual" mandate: Section 2A. Monetary policy objectives T...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 182
Views: 12800

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

Could someone explain this to me? I assume Rovner is referring only to Medicare Advantage plans, not traditional Medicare (+ supplemental), which I used. But it honestly had not occurred to me that the ruling, if upheld, could directly Medicare subscribers. What You Need to Know About the Affordable...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What type of bond investor are you?
Replies: 31
Views: 2087

Re: What type of bond investor are you?

Mostly (a), maybe some (d). For me, bonds are a volume control that let me adjust the volatility of my entire portfolio so it isn't too loud for me. Volatility? Risk? To me, volatility darn well is risk, or at least an important form of risk, and I don't care who knows it. Furthermore, it is well co...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 182
Views: 12800

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

...Investing in the Vanguard Health Care fund as a hedge is a good idea... 1) Even if that fund served as a reliable hedge (spiked upward along with health insurance premiums), it's hard to believe that many people could "afford" to put enough into that fund to be a serious hedge. Let's say your in...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Impressive film in theater Dec 17 and 27 only
Replies: 14
Views: 2268

Re: Impressive film in theater Dec 17 and 27 only

Thanks for posting. Watched the trailer. My wife and I are going tomorrow.
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Impressive film in theater Dec 17 and 27 only
Replies: 14
Views: 2268

Re: Impressive film in theater Dec 17 and 27 only

Hopefully the film isn't 100 hours long.
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which asset class is down the most for you?
Replies: 24
Views: 1947

Re: Which asset class is down the most for you?

I don't know and I don't care. Should I?

The "prices and returns" chart from my Vanguard account for the last ten years looks like this (axes, grid lines, dollar values suppressed).

Image
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protection of brokerage accounts in Vanguard / Fidelity with more than 250K / 500K
Replies: 17
Views: 2711

Re: Protection of brokerage accounts in Vanguard / Fidelity with more than 250K / 500K

I don't know what M1Finance is. First, check their website and/or statements, SIPC members usually say "Member SIPC" on them somewhere. Then, double-check. Get the exact name of the institution. Go to the SIPC website and check their list of members. (Added) Found it. This is what you should have lo...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Annoyingly Expensive HP Ink Cartridges
Replies: 34
Views: 2485

Re: Annoyingly Expensive HP Ink Cartridges

I am going to agree with those saying "graduate to a laser printer," with one caveat. I bought a Brother laser printer four or five years ago--not made any more so I won't give the model--cost something like $250. Color laser printing and two-sided copying . Oh, lovely. A real "office printing" expe...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 182
Views: 12800

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

...Doesn't NY also prohibit health insurance rating based on age (i.e. everyone pays the same health insurance rate regardless of their age)? Sounds crazy but I think I read that somewhere... It's now been so long that I'm not sure, but something mysterious changed in the 1970s--I've forgotten what...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 16, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Factor Tilts, Such As Small Value, Increase Idiosyncratic Risk?
Replies: 50
Views: 2100

Re: Do Factor Tilts, Such As Small Value, Increase Idiosyncratic Risk?

I'm not sure what you mean by idiosyncratic risk. In the past, small-caps have consistently had more risk, by various measures, than the market as a whole; and value stocks have had more risk, by various measures than the market as a whole. I don't think that's seriously in dispute. What tilters say...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 182
Views: 12800

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

I want to begin with cas's "friendly amendment" from a posting below. *Don't* avoid tests if you are having troublesome symptoms, or if a doctor tells you to get them. That said... One thing might be actionable. The situation of people with pre-existing conditions is troublesome. Insurance laws (whi...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Vanguard freeze mutual fund redemptions during times of duress?
Replies: 14
Views: 2976

Re: Can Vanguard freeze mutual fund redemptions during times of duress?

P.S. If you just like ETFs, use ETFs. Don't expect to find anything supporting the ideas that "ETFs are way better than mutual funds" or "mutual funds are way better than ETFs." We've been batting that one around in the forum for years and nobody has ever gotten beyond "eh, it's a matter of personal...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Vanguard freeze mutual fund redemptions during times of duress?
Replies: 14
Views: 2976

Re: Can Vanguard freeze mutual fund redemptions during times of duress?

Is there any scenario that allows Vanguard to temporarily limit or freeze redemptions from its mutual funds? If there were mass outflows due to some unforeseen extreme event(s), would a Vanguard ETF have any liquidity advantage over its mutual fund counterpart? With regard to limits and freezes, ye...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]
Replies: 160
Views: 10165

Re: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]

This is really bad publicity. It appears that they don’t know what they’re doing and kind of “winging it.” It does appear that way. Here's another salient detail. Notice that Robinhood said these accounts would be "insured" by the SIPC. As we will see, when they said this, either they were "winging...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 182
Views: 12800

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

I think this is pretty clearly a "nobody knows yet, we have to wait and see" situation. Press reports suggest that the court ruling is controversial and not at all a slam dunk. This isn't a case where the law is obvious and just hadn't been tested.
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I made a mistake by not selling when the market was high this year
Replies: 104
Views: 8677

Re: I made a mistake by not selling when the market was high this year

You didn't make a mistake by "not selling when the market was high." You made a mistake by believing that the stock market is risky for everybody else, but not for you, because you always know the right time to sell. "Take your share of trouble, face it and don't complain: If you want the rainbow, y...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds stocks commodities etc all declining. What to do?
Replies: 7
Views: 775

Re: Bonds stocks commodities etc all declining. What to do?

This is the great fear people have been clamorong about. What happens when theres little to invest in? If this is so do we run for the hills and keep cash only?... We stay the course and tighten our belts. The market never promised you anything, the market owes you nothing, bad times happen, everyb...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]
Replies: 160
Views: 10165

Re: [Robinhood to launch 3% interest bearing accounts, but is not a bank]

They removed the "Checking & Savings" FAQ in their FAQ section. Yesterday: https://web.archive.org/web/20181213225226/https://support.robinhood.com/hc/en-us Now: https://support.robinhood.com/hc/en-us Hmmmm maybe they're not so confident about what exactly it is they're offering. Was it actually av...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1594
Views: 220325

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

...And, frankly, QSPIX really shouldn't be compared to equities except for giggles... It's OK for a QSPIX/QSPNX advocate to compare it to equities The expectation is that the fund will produce equity-like returns, but with about half the volatility of the market, but it's not OK for the rest of us ...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ?Admiral share availability in other brokerages?[Yes, after a few weeks they are now appearing at other brokerages.]
Replies: 33
Views: 3309

Re: ?Admiral share availability in other brokerages?[Yes, after a few weeks they are now appearing at other brokerages.]

I've never known what business magic lies behind mutual funds being offered by brokerages. I'd like to know. It is obviously some kind of case-by-case business deal between brokerage and mutual fund company. Back in the 1980s when stock certificates were scratched into clay tablets with chipped flin...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Purchase of 2018?
Replies: 148
Views: 9091

Re: Favorite Purchase of 2018?

Really glad I sprung $20 for an electric "shoe, boot, and glove dryer" at a local bargain-deal store. I guess they regularly cost $35 or so, and I didn't know if they were any good. I think they are. Way better than stuffing crumpled newspaper into damp shoes. The one I got look almost exactly like ...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]
Replies: 160
Views: 10165

Re: [Robinhood to launch 3% interest bearing accounts, but is not a bank]

The account cash balance should stay the same. If RobinHood goes bankrupt and cannot payout the SIPC will pay. No ? I don't think the balance should change based on Robinhood's fortunes. I can't seem to find details on Robinhood, but I don't believe it's a true "cash balance" as in brokerage cash a...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?
Replies: 76
Views: 4832

Re: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?

OnTrack wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:57 am
Some history of the size of toilet paper rolls:
https://www.efoodsdirect.com/blog/get-i ... appearing/
Thank you... particularly for confirming the 500-sheets-of-two-ply standard: "circa 1970, the typical toilet paper roll contained 500 good-sized sheets."
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 97
Views: 5708

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

[Chart of US stocks and Long-Term Treasury annual return, 1978-present] ...Two observations: 1. In about half the years one asset delivered positive returns while the other asset delivered negative returns. 2. There has never been a year when both assets delivered negative returns. I am using the S...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]
Replies: 160
Views: 10165

SIPC "disagrees with the statement that these funds are protected by SIPC."

Scooped... but I'm not going to waste these red flags. https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 97
Views: 5708

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

...Aren’t long bonds more highly correlated with equities?... (Putting it accurately in the past tense) I would say "no, they have not been." My favorite if slightly-out-of-date reference book, 2015 Ibbotson SBBI Classic Yearbook is showing, 1926-2014: Long-term government with large-cap stocks, -0...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 97
Views: 5708

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

...Equities and bonds overall uncorrelated, but the correlation tends to turn strongly negative just when you would want it to the most... Do you have any data for the "tends to" statement? I've found that very often "tends to" statements seem to apply to exactly one conspicuous past event... in th...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 97
Views: 5708

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

Also: There's only one really robust case known: stocks and bonds The specific case of stocks and bonds has worked, in a small way , over most past periods and most examples of "stock" and "bond" assets. The correlation has been close to zero ( not consistently negative, but consistently very low). ...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 97
Views: 5708

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

It's a great article. I think "correlations" are 90% BS. Here are some of the issues. A facile talking point for bad investments "Correlations" are often trotted out because they are something that can be claimed when nothing better can be said. (Much the same is true of "diversification.") There ar...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?
Replies: 76
Views: 4832

A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?

This is strictly a question of whether anybody is clever enough to concoct some explanation, however strained, of how this could possibly be truthful. Charmin claims that its "super mega rolls" are equivalent to "6 rolls in 1." https://imgur.com/7lKwxOx.png They also state that the four-roll package...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]
Replies: 160
Views: 10165

Re: 3% Interest on checking and savings account - Robinhood

It is SIPC insured. You are still covered for 250k I think that's very unclear. FDIC and NCUA deposit insurance has a long track record of working smoothly for depositors when banks and credit unions have failed--it's not even an inconvenience most of the time. I know that because I had an importan...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation when cost of living expenses covered
Replies: 23
Views: 1229

Re: Allocation when cost of living expenses covered

...My question is, with most expenses pretty much covered by a steady reliable income stream, what mutual fund allocation should I keep in my 401k. Off the top of my head, I was considering something conservative like 70/30 bond index/stock index funds. Does that make sense? Why take risks if I don...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3622

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

Is there any market that is expected to do better than flat over the next decade? Maybe not. Sometimes you just have a lousy decade. It's happened before, it will happen again. Why not? You have to stay open to the possibility. Markets do not care about your needs or your aspirations and make you n...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 39
Views: 2271

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

Just an anecdote, that doesn't cut either way. I take Spanish lessons by videocall from a teacher in Latin America. She likes to assign me articles in Spanish to read in bbcmundo, a Spanish-language site edited by BBC World. I honestly don't know if she picks articles that interest her, or articles ...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How NOT To Beat The Market"
Replies: 15
Views: 2208

Re: "How NOT To Beat The Market"

What matters is the portfolio as a whole; need to look at the behavior of entire portfolios with and without QSPIX. Indeed. And some results I found are just exactly in the grey area of endless argument. However, I would like advocates of QSPIX/QSPRX to volunteer some reasonable baseline portfolio ...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How NOT To Beat The Market"
Replies: 15
Views: 2208

Re: "How NOT To Beat The Market"

QSPIX has not promised “beating the market”. No, but Taylor has accurately quoted the article he linked to, where the author said "The expectation is that the fund will produce equity-like returns, but with about half the volatility of the market." If people are going to set expectations of "equity...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pot Stocks
Replies: 6
Views: 763

Re: Pot Stocks

Don't do it unless you personally have a deep understanding of the production and business aspects of the business. (I don't, and so I wouldn't touch it with a ten-foot pole). Everybody knows that legal marijuana is likely to experience high growth, and the stocks are in demand by thousands of inves...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NPR On Point: Stock Market Distress Signal: How Low-Cost Index Funds Are Taking Over
Replies: 26
Views: 3974

Re: NPR On Point: Stock Market Distress Signal: How Low-Cost Index Funds Are Taking Over

I guess the answer to this is Vanguard 1, Vanguard 2, Vanguard 3, Fidelity 1, Fidelity 2, Fidelity 3, Blackrock 1, Blackrock 2, and Blackrock 3. The Teddy Roosevelt solution. Vanguard already has both a "Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund" and a "Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund" (which ...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: dry eyes- optimal laptop screen resolution to reduce eye strain
Replies: 27
Views: 1330

Re: dry eyes- optimal laptop screen resolution to reduce eye strain

Things like eyestrain are very subjective, you just have to judge for yourself and buy gear with return privileges. One thing I'll say is that reflections on a screen are deadly, just deadly. It's much better now with flat screens, but even the slightest reflection is bad, and the thing is that you ...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Motley Fools is now for fools only?.....RIP
Replies: 30
Views: 6657

Re: Motley Fools is now for fools only?.....RIP

They've been hawking stock tips for quite some time now. I can't remember how long it's been or what their original idea was--picking individual stocks through do-it-yourself research, I think?