Search found 35171 matches

by nisiprius
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 73
Views: 6157

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

I guess I'm a Zvi Bodie fan. From memory... in a Youtube video he says to look into the mirror every morning and say to yourself "don't lose money today". He puts everything in TIPS. If the return of TIPS don't match your retirement plans.... work longer or save more. I have a sizeable portion of m...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz
Replies: 21
Views: 912

Re: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz

SimpleGift wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:05 pm
...Mr. Lowenfeld's advice still seems sound over 100 years later — though the diversification benefits may be a bit less today...
In your portfolio, you give equal weight to the United States and Central America?
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 90
Views: 5203

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

I “get” the idea using the momentum factor, but have any real world funds been around long enough to demonstrate that it works (or doesn’t)? Momentum is tricky, for at least two reasons. First, it has generally shown negative correlation with value. Jared Kizer has written: Practically, it is impos...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can One Keep Trial Deposits?
Replies: 30
Views: 4316

Re: Can One Keep Trial Deposits?

Yeah, they can be reversed. Vanguard reversed one of mine just the other day: https://imgur.com/Huq4T9V.png Snatched eighty-seven cents right back out of my brand-new WinnemacBank Teal Heptagon X-Tream Premium+ savings account. Bummer. Well, at least I made a day's interest at 1.99% API, so that wou...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could Vanguard diverge from low cost strategy after Bogle left?
Replies: 5
Views: 793

Re: Could Vanguard diverge from low cost strategy after Bogle left?

Nothing is certain, but John C. Bogle resigned from Vanguard in 1999, and neither of his first two successors (William Brennan, Bill McNabb) has done so; they continued to aggressively cut expense ratios. I guess there is now a new CEO, Mortimer Buckley, about whom I don't know much.
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 1549

Re: Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?

With respect to something catastrophic happening that could lose all your money, I don't think there's any sensible way to compare the two. It's sort of like asking what is your relative risk of dying from drinking a Coke in an aluminum can versus drinking one in a plastic bottle. It can't be exactl...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine
Replies: 58
Views: 3791

Re: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine

Take care of the pence and the pounds will take care of themselves. Ah, but that's only one member of the pair of contradictory proverbs. The other is "penny wise and pound foolish." Similarly: He who hesitates is lost/Look before you leap Many hands make light work/Too many cooks spoil the broth B...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency
Replies: 19
Views: 1103

Re: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency

At Walmart, do you try to negotiate a deal by haggling with the checkout clerk, or do you just pay the marked price? In real life, with your real purchases, what percentage of your dollars do you spend on purchases where you have done serious comparison shopping? Except in two traditional markets--b...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: Sustainable Active Investing Framework Simple But Not Easy
Replies: 8
Views: 749

Re: Alpha Architect: Sustainable Active Investing Framework Simple But Not Easy

Can someone clarify the point that's being made here? First, the WSJ facts on Ken’s fund performance: Ken Heebner’s $3.7 billion CGM Focus Fund, rose more than 18% annually and outpaced its closest rival by more than three percentage points. Next, the WSJ lays out some facts on the performance of in...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average
Replies: 48
Views: 5217

Re: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average

The DJIA isn’t terrible; just bad. It’s a price weighted “indicator”, not a market index. The idea is to provide a general direction of the price of a few stocks (there were only a few stocks traded when the indicator was created). The allocation to each stock is based on the market price of one sh...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Mr. Bogle so against investing internationally?
Replies: 24
Views: 2769

Re: Why is Mr. Bogle so against investing internationally?

He isn't so against it. First of all, at the 2012 Bogleheads 11 conference, Oblivious Investor took down a verbatim quotation . Bogle said: "If there's one place I don't want people to take my advice, it's international. I want you to think it through for yourself." I'm not sure I can cite sources, ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average
Replies: 48
Views: 5217

Re: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average

Despite all the griping about the DJIA, the Dow has pretty well paralleled the S&P 500 (and predecessors); ballpark, the Dow has always been roughly equal to the S&P times ten. Certainly, the cap-weighted S&P is a better measure than the crazy DJIA, and a total market index would be better than the ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Marriott hotels using Alexa/Echo in guest rooms?
Replies: 34
Views: 2891

Re: Marriott hotels using Alexa/Echo in guest rooms?

There is no way to be sure any computer is really "off" merely because you have operated the power button. In fact, the desktop computers I've used for at least ten years can be configured to "wake on network access," implying that not only it is constantly energized (in a low-power state), but it i...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Capital One 360 ACH limits
Replies: 47
Views: 7514

Re: New Capitol One 360 ACH limits

Got the same email. I was a little concerned that it was a specific notice to me, masquerading as a general notice, retaliation because I'd transferred $10,000 out of my account a few weeks ago, but I guess it's general. My email subject line was "Check out your new transaction limits," as if it wer...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 73
Views: 6157

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

stock price decline might have nothing to do with Berkshire losing money. For example, if appple were to announce revenue down $1bln, they’d still be profitable but the stock price would decline. "Might." Sure. That's the thing about Warren Buffett's pronouncements. Nobody can stop guessing or inte...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine
Replies: 58
Views: 3791

Re: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine

Be grateful that the distilled water doesn't come in little single-use cartridges with one night's supply of distilled water, at $39.95 for a box of 24--with RFID chips in them, of course, so that the machine will only run with genuine manufacturer-branded cartridges. No RFD chips but individual us...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What companies followed Vanguard to no-load???
Replies: 13
Views: 993

Re: What companies followed Vanguard to no-load???

In 1972, in New York magazine, Charles and Susan Ellis wrote: Conventional mutual funds may be the only firms in town which, if they raised the price of their merchandise, would sell more of it. The reason is that built into the price of each share is a hefty sales commission that has proved, over t...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine
Replies: 58
Views: 3791

Re: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine

Be grateful that the distilled water doesn't come in little single-use cartridges with one night's supply of distilled water, at $39.95 for a box of 24--with RFID chips in them, of course, so that the machine will only run with genuine manufacturer-branded cartridges.
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 73
Views: 6157

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

...Buffett bashing is a bit of a hobby on the forum, and for the life of me I can't figure out why. His advice to investors is pretty clear in most instances, and in the past 15 years or so has been very similar to Jack Bogle's in regards to individual investors like those on the forum. It's a litt...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine
Replies: 58
Views: 3791

Re: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine

You're talking about a potential cost of savings of maybe, 6 ounces/day at a cost of, say, $1.29/gallon = $0.06/day or $22/year. Since there is no expectation that people are going to drink, let alone breathe the water condensed in a dehumidifier, there's no reason to expect there's been any attenti...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 73
Views: 6157

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

“It's only a loss on paper – until you sell.” I once owned $200 in the stock of the company I worked for. (I was afraid I'd be thought disloyal if I didn't participate in the employee stock purchase program, so I signed up for $5/month.) It was worth $14/share when I joined the company. It was wort...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 73
Views: 6157

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

Rule #1: Nobody actually knows what Buffett means by many of the things he says.
Rule #2: never forget rule #1.
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 5051

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

...Fortunately, there are other decentralised blockchains technolgies (namely Ethereum) in the works, which (will) solve all these problems (and more)... 1) Some of the problems with Bitcoin were designed in and anticipated, not discovered. The big surprise is that the Bitcoin community elected not...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio
Replies: 21
Views: 2666

Re: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio

The Four Pillars of Investing was published in 2003. Let's compare two 60/40 portfolios, using PortfolioVisualizer's asset class definitions, from 2003 through the present. For the 40, we will use "Total US Bond Market." For portfolio 1, blue, we will split up the 60 according to his ratios: 24% US...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio
Replies: 21
Views: 2666

Re: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio

Also, it is known that all such numbers should be prime numbers and the presence of 8 and 4 pretty much invalidates the suggestion. Wikipedia's definition: "Prime number (or a prime) is a natural number greater than 1 that cannot be formed by multiplying two smaller natural numbers." dbr: Why shoul...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?
Replies: 25
Views: 1950

Re: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?

I invest in bond funds for safety. (By which I mean, yes, volatility reduction). I do not hold any currency-hedged international bond funds (such as Vanguard's Total International Bond Fund) because the case for them providing any meaningful diversification, e.g. by Vanguard in Global fixed income: ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much (green) cash at home for emergency ?
Replies: 117
Views: 9182

Re: How much (green) cash at home for emergency ?

Even using screen names, I don't think it is wise to discuss how much money you keep in your house.
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MS Office 2016 "The Operating System Is Not Presently Configured To Run This Application"
Replies: 11
Views: 1018

Re: MS Office 2016 "The Operating System Is Not Presently Configured To Run This Application"

About ten or fifteen years ago, I concluded that the only safe way to use antivirus programs is to do manual scans. I do periodic manual scans (under Mac OS X) with Avast and Malwarebytes, and resist all nagging entreaties to install real-time shields or continuous internet protection or background ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 5051

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

...Bitcoin is hard money... Please tell me your definition of "hard money" and cite a source for that definition. Brushing aside the unrelated term "hard money lending," I will assume that by "hard money" you mean the same thing "hard currency." Some definitions of "hard currency" include: Oxford E...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 659
Views: 151772

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Not looking to get into a discussion about gold so I'll just leave it with the comment that "extra benefit" isn't the point of holding it. Even though I don't implement the PP, nor do I intend to, the point of the PP seems to be to have an allocation that is at least theoretically likely to provide...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mechanisms for disappearance of factor premia -- how does it work for momentum?
Replies: 14
Views: 763

Re: Mechanisms for disappearance of factor premia -- how does it work for momentum?

...I find it more tricky to understand how the momentum premium would disappear when more people start investing in momentum stocks. Momentum stocks are stocks which have recently performed well, and if more investors start buying such recent winners, their price should go up even more, hence ampli...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 36
Views: 3498

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

nisiprius: Back in this thread Small-cap tilt, 1925-2004: good enough to make you switch? , you concluded that the the small cap effect is there but that it is small. (That is my favorite BH thread ever, BTW). I'm curious if that is still your view or if you have evolved a bit and concluded the tha...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3713

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

It is often overlooked--thanks to "spin" by people whose incomes depending on sales of stocks and bonds, and a too-strict interpretation of the word "cash"--that (assuming reasonable due diligence in selection), ...bank savings accounts, CDs, and Treasury bills have historically kept up with inflati...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 25
Views: 1952

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

I think it's an interesting idea. I like the idea that the stock market itself does not possess Siegel's "extraordinary stability," but that it reflects the stability or lack thereof of the underlying economy. Now all we need is a forward-looking way to estimate statistical expectations of the avera...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 12
Views: 1191

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

Agreed that it has been shown that Gross was not the only contributor at PTTRX and that his leaving did not seem to hurt the fund in a major way. Gross's current fund has quite a different mandate then PTTRX so maybe should not be compared to it. Yes and no. The prospectus objective for PTTRX, the ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilt is enough to make a difference?
Replies: 27
Views: 1832

Re: How much tilt is enough to make a difference?

With the usual proviso about past performance, I suggest you conduct some PortfolioVisualizer backtests using your current portfolio, your selection of "the value fund" you propose to use, and the effect of replacing various parts of the 40% SWSTX with it. Since the question is about "making a diffe...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 12
Views: 1191

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

As to recent decline: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-grosss-janus-unconstrained-bond-fund-drops-sharply-1527688629 Standard WSJ paywall to deal with. Analysts believe the fund was caught wrong footed on a big bet on the relative yields between German and Italian bonds. Gross had been making reco...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 12
Views: 1191

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

Actually I was referring to the very recent fall-off in Bill Gross' current fund, unaccompanied by any similar falls in Total Bond or PIMCO Total Return or the Harbor fund you mentioned. Bill Gross' departure had very little obvious-to-the-eye effect on PIMCO Total Return, and the fact that investor...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I "market timing"?
Replies: 37
Views: 1869

Re: Am I "market timing"?

I think it is much better to say "Am I market timing? Very well then I am market timing. (I am large, I contain multitudes)*," then to do some market timing and kid yourself that you are not market timing. Or, to riff on another source, "Time. Or time not. There is no 'am I.'" *Walt Whitman, "Song o...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 12
Views: 1191

Bill Gross' fund, lately...

In a recent thread about Jeff Gundlach's predictions, cfs commented: Television camera chasers. Gundlach, Bill Gross, and others well-known here. Ignore y gracias por leer / cfs Bill Gross! The "Bond King." That's a name I haven't heard in... well, months. So how is his fund, the Janus, excuse me Ja...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%
Replies: 18
Views: 3176

Re: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%

cfs wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:32 am
Television camera chasers. Gundlach, Bill Gross, and others well-known here. Ignore y gracias por leer / cfs
Bill Gross. There's a name that hasn't come up lately. Think I'll start another thread about that...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I feel like selling my 3 fund
Replies: 57
Views: 7388

Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

"I feel like selling my 3 fund"--leo28 "Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy."--John C. Bogle It you can't stand to do nothing at all, if you feel an uncontrollable itch to sell, scratch it by making a tiny incremental change . Then force yourself to wait for a couple of months and see how thi...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should your employment/income source determine your investment choices?
Replies: 13
Views: 939

Re: Should your employment/income source determine your investment choices?

The idea of considering your job as an investment asset has never made any sense to me. The most obvious point is that you own your investments, but you do not own your job. It is not your property. But, above all, I don't think there's anything actionable in the idea, because you do not have even r...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SleepScore App
Replies: 11
Views: 1133

Re: SleepScore App

If you are seriously dissatisfied with your quality of sleep, to the point where you suspect it may be unhealthy, then I think you should consider an evaluation by a sleep clinic.
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?
Replies: 40
Views: 4155

Re: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?

(I'm staying the course in Total Bond... and if I were going to shift, I wouldn't shift to shorter-term bond funds, I'd just shrug and put it in a well-chosen bank savings account). I thought that the oldest post saying "interest rates can only go up" was this one, from 2009 Interest rates can only ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job in MA, live in MA, RI, or CT?
Replies: 66
Views: 2557

Re: Job in MA, live in MA, RI, or CT?

I don't know your tolerance for highway congestion. I wouldn't say we have the very worst congestion in the country, but we have bad congestion. https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/congestion_report_04/images/figure3_10.gif For about twenty years of my life (two different jobs), I had a forty-mile-each-way hig...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

...Now, Dave of course recommends no bonds. But while he may give some borrower slave to lender nonsense why bonds aren't good... Just to be clear. When you own a bond, you are the lender and the bond issuer is the borrower. I understand you to say that Dave Ramsey objects to all loans , not just b...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 36
Views: 3498

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

Larry Swedroe has sent me three PMs, which he has given me permission to quote. I will quote them verbatim with slight trimming, and without further comment. First, the extra risk is the compensation for the premium, eliminate the risk adjustment and there is no market beta premium either, so that i...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 36
Views: 3498

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

Here's the thing about correlations and "the portfolio as a whole." It is a robust and compelling effect when we talk about diversifying stocks by adding bonds. It is tenuous and evasive for subclasses of stocks mixed with other subclasses of stocks, and for subclasses of bonds mixed with other subc...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 36
Views: 3498

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

Point #2: Adjusting for risk Discussions of the size effect always get slippery if we are not clear on whether we just mean "return" or whether we mean "risk adjusted return." Recall that the original statement for the size effect in its original form, in Rolf Banz words, was "It is found that small...