Search found 47904 matches
- Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:46 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is VG's Portfolio Tester off?
- Replies: 7
- Views: 592
Re: Is VG's Portfolio Tester off?
As a general comment, Portfolio Watch has sucked for at least fifteen years. I don't know what they're doing, but they do it poorly. Do not trust or take any important actions based on it. Vanguard should be ashamed of this, because it looks so impressive. Perhaps the ultimate comment is livesoft's in 2021, Portfolio Watch has a new look [calculations may be incorrect] . Better they should get the numbers right before fussing with the "look." There was a long thread a week or so ago about many Vanguard clients, including me, getting completely bogus sector weightings different from the market warnings from Portfolio Watch. By "completely bogus" I don't mean small discrepancies, I mean reporting that I have 0% invested in...
- Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:12 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Medicare Question
- Replies: 10
- Views: 966
Re: Medicare Question
My unsatisfactory answer is that for original Medicare, is that on the one hand, there seems to be no procedure to "clear" or get advance preapproval for a specific office visit or procedure. But on the other hand, so far after almost a decade on original Medicare + Medigap supplement I haven't paid anything out-of-pocket, and I've had a couple of second opinions. (To be fair, it may not be possible with HMOs, either--before I was on Medicare, I had one infuriating experience where my HMO preapproved a procedure and then denied the claim anyway. They finally paid after a fair amount of time on the phone). I think what happens is that you have a PCP you trust, and run the idea of a second opinion by them. Then you just go to any do...
- Wed Mar 29, 2023 6:51 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Factor Investing: The Next-Gen Boglehead frontier
- Replies: 332
- Views: 23957
Re: Factor Investing: The Next-Gen Boglehead frontier
A fundamental point about cap-weighted versus factor portfolios is that it is not possible for everyone to have a small-cap value tilt because there isn't enough small-cap value to go around. People like to ask "what if everybody indexed." Well, if literally everybody indexed, there would be some kind of breakdown, and things would start to get squirrelly somewhere as you got too close to 100%. Still, you mathematically could have virtually everybody holding a cap-weighted total market index portfolio. But small-cap value is only 2% of the stock market, so mathematically it is not possible for every portfolio to hold 10% in small-cap value. The question is whether knowledge of factor investing has created enough demand for stocks ...
- Wed Mar 29, 2023 6:03 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
- Replies: 2187
- Views: 147797
Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has been in financial services regulation for over 30 years. He noted the SVB failure is the fastest seen since Barings went down over a weekend in 1995.... This is the social media & electronic world. A bank with hundreds of billions of deposits can be "run" in 24 hours.... It seems obvious that it could and should be slowed down, and I'm surprised that more attention isn't being paid to this. Everything else has overspeed brakes on it. The stock market has circuit breakers, money market mutual funds have liquidity fees and redemption gates, all mutual funds have ten day's leeway to actually pay, Vanguard's funds and I assume everyone's have prospectus language about permis...
- Tue Mar 28, 2023 2:45 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
- Replies: 2187
- Views: 147797
Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Maybe it didn't. The systems apparently didn't crash, but Planet Money had a podcast about the SVB bank run, and two small-business tech entrepreneurs were shocked when they thought they had withdrawn their money in time, only to discover that their withdrawals did not complete in time to beat the FDIC shutdown of SVB.Fpdesignco wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 2:09 pmI reality, I give them credit for their back-end systems being able to support that and not crashing.ray.james wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:54 pmhttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/svb-cus ... -says.html142 billion withdrawals over 2 days against 175million deposits.
That bank runs in digital era can be over before it is known to common folks!!!
- Tue Mar 28, 2023 2:34 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
- Replies: 6577
- Views: 1505052
Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
The Empire of Ice and Stone , by Buddy Levy. This is a history of he last voyage of the Karluk , flagship of the Canadian Arctic Expedition of 1913–16, with ended with the ship trapped in the ice, drifting across the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and sunk when crushed by the ice. The crew was stranded on the ice, 14 of the 25 man crew were eventually rescued from Wrangel Island north of Siberia. Recommended. I'm confused now because I am sure I read about the Karluk , but it wasn't that one... or was it? I was following up after reading Ada Blackjack: A True Story of Survival in the Arctic , by Jennifer Niven, a haunting and on the whole sad and depressing story. Aha. There were multiple books about the Karluk and the one I read was also by Je...
- Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:01 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Tankless hot water heater - should I spring for one?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 1932
Re: Tankless hot water heater - should I spring for one?
My son was trying to explain to me the implications of having a mix of high-efficiency and low-efficiency gas appliances in the same house. I think I understood him to say that they can't share the same vent pipe, which creates significant complications.
- Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:36 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Binoculars that can take sharp image of what you see?
- Replies: 55
- Views: 3435
Re: Binoculars that can take sharp image of what you see?
The problem is a) the risk of dealing with eBay, which is reputedly not a great place for electronics, and b) the loss of capability involved in buying an X-year-old digital camera. I know it is tempting because I imagine the optics of a Nikon 8x42 are great, but you've already seen the difference between what you see with your eye and what you get putting your cell phone against the binoculars. There are some technical explanations, but essentially they boil down to the fact that the optical characteristics of a cell phone camera are not all that similar to the eyeball (in terms of focal length, pupil size, etc.); the alignment is very tricky, you do it unconsciously with the binoculars against your eye, but the eye cups on the binoculars ...
- Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:17 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is a CD a CD anymore?
- Replies: 64
- Views: 5018
Re: Is a CD a CD anymore?
Yes, catnamedspot. I mostly agree with you. This is a familiar issue. There's a culture gap. There is a chasm between people who buy a bond or CD with the idea of holding it to maturity, and people who buy them with with the idea of trading or rebalancing or measuring its standard deviation. There doesn't seem to be a bridge across this chasm. John C. Bogle actually referenced this in his book, "Clash of the Cultures: Investment versus Speculation." The predominant mindset in all "investing" forums, including this one, is speculation or "trading." Less here than elsewhere! When there is a predominantly a trading mindset, all short-term fluctuations in market value are considered to be important even if you have...
- Mon Mar 27, 2023 12:32 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Robinhood - 1% Match for Rollovers/Transfers
- Replies: 9
- Views: 542
Re: Robinhood - 1% Match for Rollovers/Transfers
Note that you cannot buy any mutual funds at all, from any provider, at Robinhood.
That means you can't buy money market funds.
And you cannot buy any bonds at all, e.g. individual TIPS.
You probably don't want to do any of these things, but do be aware of the limitations.
That means you can't buy money market funds.
And you cannot buy any bonds at all, e.g. individual TIPS.
You probably don't want to do any of these things, but do be aware of the limitations.
- Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:26 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Morningstar full charts always giving error when choosing "MAX" time period?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 444
Re: Morningstar full charts always giving error when choosing "MAX" time period?
I hope the people who develop the software that actually handles the money haven't adopted the "move fast and break things" approach of the people who develop the websites that display it.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:54 ami just got a similar issue after I clicked on data type "10k share return". Don't know if that was the problem.
- Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:17 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Binoculars that can take sharp image of what you see?
- Replies: 55
- Views: 3435
Re: Binoculars that can take sharp image of what you see?
I forgot to mention that even low-end cameras these days have amazing camera shake correction.
- Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:31 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Morningstar full charts always giving error when choosing "MAX" time period?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 444
Re: Morningstar full charts always giving error when choosing "MAX" time period?
I just tried it right now and it is working for me.
I haven't kept any records, but I have sometimes gotten the impression that Morningstar is glitchy on Sundays.
I haven't kept any records, but I have sometimes gotten the impression that Morningstar is glitchy on Sundays.
- Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:26 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Factor Investing: The Next-Gen Boglehead frontier
- Replies: 332
- Views: 23957
Re: Factor Investing: The Next-Gen Boglehead frontier
The longest-term currency-hedged foreign bond fund I know of is the PIMCO International Bond (USD hedged) fund, PFORX, and you are correct, it has considerably outperformed a TIPS fund (ACITX), particularly over the last ten years, and the overall growth, inflation-adjusted, has been very steady throughout until 2021.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:52 pm...They appear to be performing worse than inflation over time. If you introduced corporate bonds or some foreign bonds you would probably capture better long term inflation protection...
Source

- Mon Mar 27, 2023 6:40 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
- Replies: 6577
- Views: 1505052
Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
The Data Detective, Tim Harford. Really good, better than I expected. So far, it isn't what I'd expected (a collection of amusing anecdotes), but actually a series of interesting essays that a) defend the use of statistics, and b) have very meaningful things to say about how we should approach statistical data. For example, he makes the really important point: when we look at any new statistics, the first question we should ask ourselves is "how do I feel about them?" The point being to try to head off our instant tendencies to look at them selectively (looking hard for flaws in statistics we don't like, but not in statistics we do). He has interesting things to say about what he calls the difference between "slow" and ...
- Sun Mar 26, 2023 9:15 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Factor Investing: The Next-Gen Boglehead frontier
- Replies: 332
- Views: 23957
Re: Factor Investing: The Next-Gen Boglehead frontier
They appear to have performed 1.70%/year better than inflation, over time.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:52 pm...It seems like TIPS are fine, but I'm not sure I'd want to rely on them 100% for fixed income. They appear to be performing worse than inflation over time...
Here is the performance of ACITX, the American Century TIPS fund, since inception. That's essentially the full history of TIPS themselves--January of 1997 for inception of TIPS, February of 1997 for the TIPS fund.
Source

- Sun Mar 26, 2023 7:51 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Factor Investing: The Next-Gen Boglehead frontier
- Replies: 332
- Views: 23957
Re: Factor Investing: The Next-Gen Boglehead frontier
I'm a very conservative investor. I don't say that's objectively right, I'm just saying I am. And yes, I do have a high fixed-income allocation, because a) I'm retired and b) I'm a conservative investor. I don't see any significant downside to TIPS. The big question is "why not TIPS?" and the "why nots" always seem like technicalities to me. Bonds are for safety, and I don't see the point of taking unnecessary inflation risk in bonds, even if you expect to be rewarded for taking that risk. I have never liked the idea of relying solely on stocks for inflation protection. That may be true over the long run, but the long run is longer than my personal patience. In the words of Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett's mentor: On th...
- Sun Mar 26, 2023 7:41 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Binoculars that can take sharp image of what you see?
- Replies: 55
- Views: 3435
Re: Binoculars that can take sharp image of what you see?
Nikon is a good brand, and any camera with 15x optical zoom is going to be much better than coupling a smartphone to binoculars.
Nikon's description of the P100 says that yes, it has a 26:1 optical zoom range, and if it's Nikon I believe what they say. But it starts at a wide-angle setting. I believe they must be using "35mm equivalent" focal lengths when they say it zooms from "wide-angle (26mm) to super telephoto coverage (678mm)." If that's 35-mm equivalent, the "normal lens" is 50 mm. So it has a 26:1 zoom range, but the range is from ½X to 13X normal--not 1X to 26X normal.
eBay is generally not considered a reliable place to buy electronics.
Nikon's description of the P100 says that yes, it has a 26:1 optical zoom range, and if it's Nikon I believe what they say. But it starts at a wide-angle setting. I believe they must be using "35mm equivalent" focal lengths when they say it zooms from "wide-angle (26mm) to super telephoto coverage (678mm)." If that's 35-mm equivalent, the "normal lens" is 50 mm. So it has a 26:1 zoom range, but the range is from ½X to 13X normal--not 1X to 26X normal.
eBay is generally not considered a reliable place to buy electronics.
- Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:57 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Binoculars that can take sharp image of what you see?
- Replies: 55
- Views: 3435
Re: Binoculars that can take sharp image of what you see?
Ordinary binoculars run about 7 to 10 power. That's about the same as any camera, including cell phone cameras, that say anything about "ultrazoom." A 10X "optical zoom" is not hard to find or terribly expensive. A picture taken with a digital camera with 10X optical zoom is going to be much better than one taken by putting your digital camera in front of a binocular eyepiece. Heck, an image taken with 4X optical zoom and then cropping it down to 1/2 linear size is probably going to be better. There are many issues with shooting "through" binoculars. One of them is that the camera autofocus may have problems working. Another is that the field of view may not cover the whole frame, and autoexposure may have prob...
- Sun Mar 26, 2023 4:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Factor Investing: The Next-Gen Boglehead frontier
- Replies: 332
- Views: 23957
Re: Factor Investing: The Next-Gen Boglehead frontier
Question for Factorheads regarding fixed income: I have a "Larry Portfolio" with only about 15% in fixed income in a former employer's Cash Balance Plan paying 4.6% guaranteed. I would like to start increasing my fixed income allocation with new contributions as I approach retirement. I would like to have a single fixed income fund for the rest of my life. I was tentatively planning to use something like VGIT (Vanguard Intermediate Treasury). If you were to choose a single fixed income fund to hold for life, what fund/ETF would you choose? (I'm not a "factorhead.") One of these--all equivalent to each other: the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities fund (VAIPX) (not technically an index fund) the iShares TIP ETF (ind...
- Sun Mar 26, 2023 1:13 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Which is safer? $250k cash at small online bank or $250k in MM fund at Fidelity?
- Replies: 62
- Views: 6057
Re: Which is safer? $250k cash at small online bank or $250k in MM fund at Fidelity?
Note that in the case of a money market mutual funds, in order to assess safety you need to look under the hood, read the prospectus, inspect the holdings, and perform due diligence.
In the case of a bank account, all you need to do is verify that it has FDIC insurance.
(You can double-check the bank's claims by going to the FDIC Find a Bank website, to verify that it really is a member of the FDIC.)
In the case of a bank account, all you need to do is verify that it has FDIC insurance.
(You can double-check the bank's claims by going to the FDIC Find a Bank website, to verify that it really is a member of the FDIC.)
- Sun Mar 26, 2023 1:04 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Which is safer? $250k cash at small online bank or $250k in MM fund at Fidelity?
- Replies: 62
- Views: 6057
Re: Which is safer? $250k cash at small online bank or $250k in MM fund at Fidelity?
Ultimate safety is unknowable because we are talking about "black swan" events that rarely recur, and never twice in the same way, so there are no reliable past statistics. For example, the Reserve Primary Money Market mutual fund collapsed in 2008, and it took about two-and-a-half years before shareholders got virtually-but-not-quite-all of their money back. But that's why they made fresh regulations, involving the distinction between "retail" and "institutional" funds, and the ability to impose liquidity fees and redemption gates to stop runs. So money market funds are safer than the used to be, and if another money market fund does collapse, it won't be in the same way or for the same reasons. When you are t...
- Sun Mar 26, 2023 10:59 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Golf cart for piddling around in yard?
- Replies: 57
- Views: 3584
Re: Golf cart for piddling around in yard?
I am mildly curious... 1.5 acres implies distances of around 250 yards... if a golf cart is going to work I assume that is 1.5 reasonably level, smooth acres. If walking, puttering, carrying things 250 yards is starting to be troublesome, what about the various maneuvers needed to exit the house, mount the golf cart, do the small number of added outdoor chores associated with taking care of the golf cart.... ???
- Sun Mar 26, 2023 10:50 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Morningstar full charts always giving error when choosing "MAX" time period?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 444
Morningstar full charts always giving error when choosing "MAX" time period?
On the general topic of bugs, error, goofs, and sloppiness in web presentations of financial data...
For a long time now, months for sure, Morningstar has always given me an error message in its "full charts" if I ask for the MAX time period. 5 years always works. And manually requesting a date prior to fund inception works. But MAX never does.
For example, for Total Stock, VTSMX,
5 years works,

MAX fails,

Selecting 1/1/1980 as the start...

works, and it automatically adjusts the starting date to fund inception on 4/30/1992.

For a long time now, months for sure, Morningstar has always given me an error message in its "full charts" if I ask for the MAX time period. 5 years always works. And manually requesting a date prior to fund inception works. But MAX never does.
For example, for Total Stock, VTSMX,
5 years works,

MAX fails,

Selecting 1/1/1980 as the start...

works, and it automatically adjusts the starting date to fund inception on 4/30/1992.

- Sun Mar 26, 2023 7:29 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Risk Parity Portfolio in retirement Vs 2 fund
- Replies: 18
- Views: 1606
Re: Risk Parity Portfolio in retirement Vs 2 fund
I don't want to come off as an excessive cheerleader for bonds, but a fundamental difference between bonds and stocks is that with a (normal kind of) bond (and assuming no default) you actually know the future for one particular date. Unless it’s an inflation indexed bond, you don’t know what the future is in real terms at a particular date... Thank you for acknowledging the existence of TIPS. My point is not that bonds are great, my point is that there is a fundamental difference between bonds and stocks. With a (normal) bond, you almost know the future at a particular date in the future. You "almost" know in the sense of having a legal, enforceable contract. With a nominal bond, you almost know the future in nominal, number-of-...
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:39 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: S&P 500 concentration risk: Should we be worried?
- Replies: 63
- Views: 6298
Re: S&P 500 concentration risk: Should we be worried?
Here's the difference between an S&P 500 fund and a "more diversified" Russell 1000 fund during the tech meltdown.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Sat Mar 25, 2023 3:39 pm Russell 1000 would provide more diversified exposure by including mid-cap market. Or consider adding defensive sector fund, such as vanguard utilities fund. Or both.
Source

- Sat Mar 25, 2023 11:36 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How much cash are you holding at sub-optimal interest rates?
- Replies: 61
- Views: 5595
Re: How much cash are you holding at sub-optimal interest rates?
I had some CDs at Capital One last year heading into the start of the Fed rate increases. Not long after the increases I decided to take the early withdrawal penalty and move that money to MMFs and brokered CDs. I was amused to discover that Capital One had removed the early withdrawal functionality from the website, presumably to add friction for people who were bailing on CDs to get the better current rates. When I called in to have them do the early withdrawal manually, the rep cheerfully said "No problem, I can do this in my sleep - it's all I've been doing all day for weeks." :D So far, it looks like I was completely wrong. Many--not all, but many--CDs have language in their terms and conditions saying that early withdrawals...
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 11:34 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How much cash are you holding at sub-optimal interest rates?
- Replies: 61
- Views: 5595
Re: How much cash are you holding at sub-optimal interest rates?
Banks don't always need deposits.
When they don't need them, they don't need to compete on interest rates--and they don't.
When they don't need them, they don't need to compete on interest rates--and they don't.
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:25 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
- Replies: 2187
- Views: 147797
Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
9,000 bank failures during the Great Depression? The article doesn't name all of them, but it does name one--this one, in Haverhill, Ohio:technovelist wrote: ↑Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:20 amCan you name one of those failures, since there have apparently been many of them?alex_686 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:00 pm I am a bit more relaxed on fractional reserves. It is a inherent part of money and banking. Creation of safe and stable risk-less money is littered by failure. Better to embrace active risk management to address issues of a dynamic system. I will point out that Basel III comes from the lessons learned from Basel I & II.

And probably a similar number during the Long Depression of 1873-1894.
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:19 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: S&P 500 concentration risk: Should we be worried?
- Replies: 63
- Views: 6298
Re: S&P 500 concentration risk: Should we be worried?
You can argue as to whether that matters or not. But you can't argue that it isn't happening. You have a valid point. The question is, what is the "it" that is happening, and I still maintain that people have selectively focussed on one particular "it" that doesn't matter much. People seek out the extrema. It could matter if it reflects some unsoundness in structure permeating the whole stock market. But I don't think you can shield yourself from it by sector rotation, or by market timing. I'll bet that if there is a stock market crash, the Rydex RSP Equal Weight S&P 500 will fall just as far as the cap-weighted S&P 500. After all, RSP declined more than the S&P 500 in 2008-2009 (-55.8% versus -50.92%), more...
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:07 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: good camping sites for beginners in new york/new england?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 1217
Re: good camping sites for beginners in new york/new england?
Some of the NY state parks are really interesting and have have excellent camping. I think my favorite was Watkins Glen, but Glimmerglass was nice too. Especially if you like baseball. We thought Watkins Glen was sensational. It is a winding path along the bottom of a gorge, easy walk with dozens of dramatic waterfall-ish rapids and things. To be sure, there was plenty of company the two days we did it. We didn't camp around there so can't say anything about a campsite. Since cabins have been mentioned, another thing I will add is that my wife and I do like KOAs in general. (Those who hate them, peace). Particularly with kids, one of their "Vacation" or "Resort" campgrounds is not a bad idea because of various kid-orien...
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 7:44 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Do I have to get a hybrid?
- Replies: 138
- Views: 9992
Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?
We're on our second Prius, and I would say with hybrids, what you see is what you get. Just assume that the engine is an engine, and if you like the fuel economy, size, interior appointments, driving feel, and price, just go ahead. It's just a car that happens to get 50 mpg, otherwise not different from ICE cars. And you don't need to do anything special or fuss about driving style to get 50 mpg, you just drive it Our second Prius is no sports car, but it is very adequately peppy e.g. for pulling onto interstates going uphill. Maintenance costs haven't been very different from other cars. EVs are disruptive technology, hybrids are not, they just fit right in... gas up anywhere. Our old car was running fine when we traded it in, we felt self...
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 7:16 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Risk Parity Portfolio in retirement Vs 2 fund
- Replies: 18
- Views: 1606
Re: Risk Parity Portfolio in retirement Vs 2 fund
Again, due to the short lifespan of risk parity mutual funds this isn't a great comparison... but three risk parity funds--from AQR, PanAgora, and Wealthfront--have had correlations of 0.84 to 0.86 with a 60/40 fund (VBINX).
That's nowhere near low enough to be a powerful diversifier, certainly not powerful enough to overcome the drag of low return.
Source

That's nowhere near low enough to be a powerful diversifier, certainly not powerful enough to overcome the drag of low return.
Source

Name Ticker VBINX AQRIX PPRPX WFRPX
Vanguard Balanced Index VBINX 1.00 0.86 0.86 0.84
AQR Multi-Asset I AQRIX 0.86 1.00 0.90 0.86
Putnam PanAgora Risk Parity A PPRPX 0.86 0.90 1.00 0.86
Wealthfront Risk Parity W WFRPX 0.84 0.86 0.86 1.00
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 7:06 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Risk Parity Portfolio in retirement Vs 2 fund
- Replies: 18
- Views: 1606
Re: Risk Parity Portfolio in retirement Vs 2 fund
It seems like sometimes these complicated strategies like risk parity don’t work out as well as expected. Take a look at the performance of the RPAR risk parity etf. I wanted to include RPAR in my comparison but it would have limited the time frame too much, but it's relevant, because the people who like risk parity praised it as a good implementation of the strategy. But it has fallen about -20% since the start of 2022, same as the others. UPAR, the Evoke "Ultra Risk Parity" ETF, which Access the same risk parity strategy as RPAR but with a higher target return and risk.... Seeks to generate positive returns during periods of economic growth, preserve capital during periods of economic contraction, and preserve real rates of ret...
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:19 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Risk Parity Portfolio in retirement Vs 2 fund
- Replies: 18
- Views: 1606
Re: Risk Parity Portfolio in retirement Vs 2 fund
I notice that the bond fund in my portfolio seems to be now reverting to the mean ie in that as equities go down the bond fund starts to rise and vice versa Possibly the short (in historical terms) of the parallel dropping in value of equity and bonds is coming to an end and “normal service” is being resumed-ready for the next upturn in the stockmarket ? xxd091 It isn't "mean reversion," it's just "acting like bonds." I don't want to come off as an excessive cheerleader for bonds, but a fundamental difference between bonds and stocks is that with a (normal kind of) bond (and assuming no default) you actually know the future for one particular date. If the value of an individual stock goes down, there's nothing more than...
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:55 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: good camping sites for beginners in new york/new england?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 1217
Re: good camping sites for beginners in new york/new england?
Agree with livesoft about starting in the backyard, if you've never done it before. Get the kids used to the tent, the sleeping bags, etc. If you haven't done it recently you might be surprised at how outdoorsy sleeping in a backyard can be, you will hear night sounds you don't hear from inside the house. Just a single data point, and not a recent stay: we loved Letchworth State Park in New York State. The campground was sort of typical/average, but easy walks and hikes to look at the (three) waterfalls, and a quirky little museum but something to do, and I visited the dam, where you can get a guided tour that takes you... down into the center of the dam. The campground is your just-a-campground, sites that have a decent area to pitch a ten...
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:19 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: S&P 500 concentration risk: Should we be worried?
- Replies: 63
- Views: 6298
Re: S&P 500 concentration risk: Should we be worried?
20% in the top 5 is historically high (see graph below). And they are all in tech-related industries. A Google search found this article . According to the data they present, In 2022, the largest sector is information technology, containing 25% of the S&P. In 2012, it was telecommunications, containing 33%. In 2002, financials, containing 20%. It's all a shrug. It's not unusual for a single sector to account for 20% of the S&P 500, and which sector it is constantly changes. I have no doubt that if you play around with different definitions--whoever heard of using "the largest seven," the way the Twitter poster does?--you can find a measure that's at an extreme. But in this chart, the weight in one sector isn't an extreme....
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 7:04 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why not follow Buffett’s mantra?
- Replies: 134
- Views: 10492
Re: Why not follow Buffet’s mantra?
I believe there was a famous academic refutation of Efficient Markets... Well, try to find and cite that famous academic refutation, please, so we'll know where we're at. Market Volatility by Robert Shiller https://books.google.hn/books?id=Rv-DULmRx2YC&printsec=copyright#v=onepage&q&f=false https://www.jstor.org/page-scan-delivery/get-page-scan/2006543/0 Thanks, working on looking at it. The book is surprisingly hard to find other than buying a used copy. The paper appears to be available here . But I don't understand how excess variability, or the phenomenon "that prices change for no good reason" refutes the efficient market hypothesis, as long as the price changes follow a random walk around a rational center. Just...
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 6:47 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why not follow Buffett’s mantra?
- Replies: 134
- Views: 10492
Re: Why not follow Buffet’s mantra?
Yes, to me tilting is a logical enhancement and extension of the EMH rather than opposing it. Tilts diversify to more sources or potential return and risk than MCW. And yes, to be clear, size itself doesn't seem as significant as other factors, but it does seem to enhance those other factors. I think it goes underappreciated that MCW has it's own inherent tilts, for better or worse. There's many risk-based and behavioral-based explanations for why this, and an investor who has the capacity and willingness to take on additional risk, or the temperament to overcome some of the common behavioral biases that investors fall victim to, can create a more diversified and balanced portfolio than the MCW portfolio Tilted, with respect to what? Balan...
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 5:25 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
- Replies: 6577
- Views: 1505052
Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Last quotation from Absolute Zero and the Conquest of Cold , by Tom Schachtman, I promise. Note the last sentence in particular, which I've underline. As for the United States, there was a flurry of excitement in June 1897 when a New York Times Magazine article opened with this memorable sentence: "Mama wants two quarts of your best liquid air, and she says that the last you sent had too much carbonic acid gas." The article referred to American engineer Charles E. Tripler and his recently announced steam-driven machine for the liquefaction of air.... Tripler's promise of producing large quantities of liquid air for such engines in carriages, ships, and other modes of transportation attracted Wall Street investors. In short order, ...
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 5:12 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: S&P 500 concentration risk: Should we be worried?
- Replies: 63
- Views: 6298
Re: S&P 500 concentration risk: Should we be worried?
I am not worried. Why are you worried? The tweet was not convincing. That tweet is a part of the 7-part thread. You might want to read the whole thing: https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1638995522710130703. Why would one be worried? The first post that I quoted above mentions the reason quite clearly: "concentration risk". Hence my question. I read the whole thing. Nothing new in the 7-part series of tweets that hasn't been discussed numerous times before. Concentration at the top has been a characteristic of the S&P 500 for most of its existence. I will amend my statement to say that the TWEETS (plural) are not convincing. I don't believe that "concentration" is an appropriate word to use here. A Broadway theat...
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 1:14 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Looking for ways to lock in high interest rates
- Replies: 46
- Views: 5707
Re: Looking for ways to lock in high interest rates
Me, I'm already sorry I locked in a 3.44% rate on a 17 month CD. Seriously, I don't know how you'd know if interest rates are "high" and worth locking in, especially for a long period of time. Individual long-term TIPS would be reasonably safe, I think, but I decided long ago to quit buying individual bonds because of the inconvenience factor. I'm curious, but what's the inconvenience factor to buying individual bonds? The Vanguard online bond trading desk is pretty similar to buying stocks/ETFs. In the event that my wife ever needs to take over management of the account, I am very sure she would be stymied, particularly since Vanguard only lists two TIPS per page on a printed statement. I believe that she can manage a portfolio ...
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 12:51 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Looking for ways to lock in high interest rates
- Replies: 46
- Views: 5707
Re: Looking for ways to lock in high interest rates
Me, I'm already sorry I locked in a 3.44% rate on a 17 month CD.
Seriously, I don't know how you'd know if interest rates are "high" and worth locking in, especially for a long period of time. Individual long-term TIPS would be reasonably safe, I think, but I decided long ago to quit buying individual bonds because of the inconvenience factor.
Seriously, I don't know how you'd know if interest rates are "high" and worth locking in, especially for a long period of time. Individual long-term TIPS would be reasonably safe, I think, but I decided long ago to quit buying individual bonds because of the inconvenience factor.
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:31 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: S&P 500 concentration risk: Should we be worried?
- Replies: 63
- Views: 6298
Re: S&P 500 concentration risk: Should we be worried?
The Twitter poster, of course, does not bother to explain why he thinks 24% in the biggest seven stocks is "unstable." Or even why it is a "concentration." Words like "concentration" and "top-heavy" and "unbalanced" get bandied around a lot, with the unspoken assumption that there is surely something unnatural or out of the ordinary about companies being different sizes. What exactly is wrong with the biggest seven stocks accounting for 24% of the market? Is it wrong because it is surprising (if you never looked at market composition before?) Is it wrong because " everybody knows it's wrong?" Distributions of this kind are common in nature. 30% of all of the named species of animal...
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 7:13 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Diversify away from U.S. Government?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 3050
Re: Diversify away from U.S. Government?
For a long time now, opinion in the forum has included the ideas of Total Bond (nearly 2/3rds government), no, no, bonds are for safety so why take any credit risk at all, how is Total Bond any better than 100% Treasury? (e.g. Swensen), and no, no, Total Bond has too much government, everyone ought to have more in corporates than Total Bond includes (e.g. John C. Bogle himself). Meanwhile, Vanguard itself has been heavily pushing the idea of putting about 30%-40% of the bond allocation into international, US-dollar-currency-hedged bonds. None of them are crazy ideas. I think it's a fantasy to suppose that a few effortless mouse clicks in your brokerage website will give you an inexpensive and really effective shield against global financial...
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 6:21 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Risk Parity Portfolio in retirement Vs 2 fund
- Replies: 18
- Views: 1606
Re: Risk Parity Portfolio in retirement Vs 2 fund
There are a ton of problems surrounding the phrase "risk parity," the first being that nobody's really sure what it means. And I think they are problematical as investments for ordinary investors, and should be approached with caution. I am going to separate two very different things that seem to be part of strategies that people call "risk parity." 1) Using specific alts to add portfolio diversification. 2) Reallocating heavily to bonds to equalize risk, then leveraging back to a "normal" risk and return. 1) Specific alts. The phrase is closely associated with Ray Dalio and Bridgewater's "All-Weather Portfolio," and coined by Edward Qian of PanAgora. In both cases, it refers not merely to equalizing ...
- Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:22 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: SOFI Bank offers $2M FDIC insurance - What’s the Big Deal
- Replies: 29
- Views: 2590
Re: SOFI Bank offers $2M FDIC insurance - What’s the Big Deal
All of these programs, in which you have an account with a third party, who manages and serves as a conduit to a bank account, have the same characteristics. I will call that third party the "conduit manager." 1) You have a little more than "FDIC-insured account risk" because you have on top of that some conduit manager risk. You need to evaluate that risk. You are assuming that the manager will stay in business, keep the computers that implement the conduit running properly, and provide customer service if there are any glitches. One reasonably assumes that Fidelity can do that, but it still involves trust in Fidelity as well as trust in the FDIC. SoFi is a real FDIC-insured bank themselves so you assume they know how t...
- Thu Mar 23, 2023 3:19 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Deciding on Medigap vs Medicare Advantage
- Replies: 76
- Views: 5929
Re: Deciding on Medigap vs Medicare Advantage
A lot of discussions of Medigap versus Medicare Advantage smuggle in an assumption that you have a good handle on your personal future health costs. E.g. if you don't expect to be using much medical care because you're young, healthy, and work out, blah blah blah. This is an illusion. You don't really know what your medical costs will be, and to the extent that you do know, the insurance company has better information than you do. I don't really understand whether disclosure of the "medical loss ratio" is mandated at the state or federal level, but one rational way to compare the value of the plans is to compare the "medical loss ratio," the percentage of the premium that is actually spent on providing medical care. If t...
- Thu Mar 23, 2023 3:10 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: SOFI Bank offers $2M FDIC insurance - What’s the Big Deal
- Replies: 29
- Views: 2590
Re: SOFI Bank offers $2M FDIC insurance - What’s the Big Deal
You would have to analyze the agreement and structure carefully, but on the face of it this sounds like "yet another fintech arrangement," with the difference that SoFi is a bank and some of your money is held directly in your own bank account at SoFi. But if e.g. you have deposited the full $2 million, ⅛ is in a "real" bank account that clearly belongs directly to you, while ⅞ of it is in a "fintech deal." By "fintech deal," I mean an arrangement in which the fintech provides the front end, the website, the account, your login, your statement, your balance, and so forth, and you give your money to them, and they put it in an FDIC-insured bank. When want to withdraw money, you ask them and they withdr...
- Thu Mar 23, 2023 1:24 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Sector Weightings differ from the Market
- Replies: 62
- Views: 3493
Re: Sector Weightings differ from the Market
I don't see how it could have anything to do with indexes being reconstituted. Whether or not reporting the bug did some good, I don't know. But I did just add a reply to my original message noting that as of today the bug seems to have been fixed.