Search found 33479 matches

by nisiprius
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Unexpected drop in fund
Replies: 7
Views: 621

Re: Unexpected drop in fund

One other suggestion. Quit looking at price charts. Start looking at growth charts such as Morningstar's. Here are two charts for your fund, APHMX. https://s8.postimg.org/sqew9mglh/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-11-22_a_la_s_10.27.48_PM.png https://s8.postimg.org/j5v9mn439/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-11-22_a...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Got $1 million to retire? Here’s how long it will last, by U.S. state"
Replies: 40
Views: 7201

Re: "Got $1 million to retire? Here’s how long it will last, by U.S. state"

It seems kind of meaningless unless you also factor in how easy it is to save that $1 million in the first place--by state. It's a lot harder to save that $1 million in Mississippi than it is in California. Sure, you could move. But if we're talking about moving, and just looking at the numbers, sho...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4504

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

That's an interesting question. I think the best answer is that I learned about it in a fourth-grade field trip to New York City (I lived in a suburb) where we visited the New York Stock Exchange, the New York Federal Reserve, and the Morgan Library. What I mostly remember about the New York Stock E...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Whole House Surge Protector still works with breaker off?
Replies: 28
Views: 1302

Re: Whole House Surge Protector still works with breaker off?

No. I think your diagram is wrong. ALERT: ALL I DID was do a Google image search and pick out a picture I like, so do not trust this for anything at all, but here is one picture I saw, and it "looks right." http://waterheatertimer.org/images/Type-1-surge-protection-wiring.jpg The surge protector is ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Beware Amazon Price Gouging
Replies: 43
Views: 4591

Re: Beware Amazon Price Gouging

It's a brave new world we live in, and I don't like it much, but I think we've reached the point where "everybody's doing it." The airlines seemed to be the first to do it on a big scale. I am trying to remember just when the idea of a fixed no-haggle take-it-or-leave-it same-for-everybody system ca...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Whole House Surge Protector still works with breaker off?
Replies: 28
Views: 1302

Re: Whole House Surge Protector still works with breaker off?

A surge protector doesn't work by blocking the surge. It works by absorbing the surge and dumping it to ground. Nothing you've said sounds wrong. Our whole-house surge protector is mounted outside the main breaker box, so that the lights on it are visible when the door of the breaker box is closed.....
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you define success in your life?
Replies: 46
Views: 1635

Re: How do you define success in your life?

Why would I define "success" at all?
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Christmas gifts for lots of kids (experiences or stock)?
Replies: 25
Views: 1394

Re: Christmas gifts for lots of kids (experiences or stock)?

Not stock. No. I once had the bright idea of giving my granddaughter... I think she was about eleven... a physical stock certificate for one share of Target, a paper series EE savings bond, and a paper series I savings bond. I guess I thought she would get out the graph paper and get busy charting v...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dropping Term Life Insurance When Hitting Your Number
Replies: 13
Views: 902

Re: Dropping Term Life Insurance When Hitting Your Number

Not quite as systematically as all that, but, yes, we dropped our term insurance when we hit our number. Actually we did it in steps as we approached our number. Not sure it can be done the same way nowadays. All our term insurance was guaranteed-renewable-up-to-age-65, IIRC, but for whatever reason...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: GE - a good value?
Replies: 43
Views: 2627

Re: GE - a good value?

...I am looking at GE right now. It has come down quite a bit. It has not reached a new high for more than fifteen years.... From what I can see, it is still a potentially great company.... Obviously, the stock would not be at $17.83 a share if there were a consensus that it is worth much more than...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Uber for someone who knows only taxis
Replies: 84
Views: 3757

Re: Uber for someone who knows only taxis

Very interesting thread and thanks to all who posted. I had no idea it was going to be so one-sidedly enthusiastic. I've put Uber on my phone and have decided yes, this is something I need to know how to use.
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 138
Views: 7770

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

On one hand I can see the argument that financial advisors don’t want you to spend down your portfolio, if they are managing it. But since most BH’s likely don’t use that type of advisor, it’s probably not an issue. What I find more curious are those that advocate spending down your portfolio first...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 138
Views: 7770

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

I have a not-good feeling about Kotlikoff and Burns' Spend 'Til the End: The Revolutionary Guide to Raising Your Living Standard--Today and When You Retire, , Kotlikoff & al's Get What's Yours: The Secrets to Maxing Out Your Social Security , and the software package ESPlanner. I'll explain that in ...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 138
Views: 7770

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

stlrick wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:47 am
...There is nothing wrong with the analysis...
I agree completely that the problem is in the assumptions, not the analysis. But in fact I can't reproduce his numbers. That is, I just accept his $19,300 and $13,510 as given, and his 3% and 4% as given, and I can't get the same totals he gets. Can you?
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are the things you want to do between 55 and 65?
Replies: 107
Views: 5892

Re: What are the things you want to do between 55 and 65?

You won't know what they are until you start doing them, because one thing leads to another. And the decline of "being able" because of fitness and health is a completely unknown variable.
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long does it take a losing company to shutdown?
Replies: 16
Views: 943

Re: How long does it take a loosing company to shutdown?

There's no rule. But it will likely shrink before it shuts down completely, and the time until you are hit by a layoff will probably be much shorter than the time it shuts down completely . I remember about 25 years ago, a guy who worked in a consulting job in a shrinking high-tech company that made...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 65
Views: 5582

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

A stray thought that occurs to me, similar to an issue with gold but, I think, much worse. When you are old enough to have helped your late mother find your late dad's assets, your late sister find your late mother's assets, and your nephews find your late sister's assets, you start to see the probl...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 138
Views: 7770

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

P.S. chipperd, you didn't mention your marital status. Assumptions about who takes what when, and the spousal benefit and the survival benefit, factor in heavily. [Added: this might be wrong, see this post below . Also, it's a little hard to explain stuff that I don't understand myself :) but before...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 138
Views: 7770

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

1) I think you are absolutely right to start poking at this and calculating numbers for yourself. 2) The goal of retirement planning is to secure a good fit between income and needs at various ages, not necessarily to extract the largest number of dollars from the government. I always get beaten up ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: HelloFresh meal boxes - disputing credit card charge
Replies: 18
Views: 1284

Re: HelloFresh meal boxes - disputing credit card charge

In a situation where I had unexpectedly been enrolled, and the company said it was too late to cancel and it seemed plausible that the box had really already been shipped, I would probably just cuss, and say, "Oh, well, they charged me but they're sending me food," make sure I had canceled the subsc...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you record customer service interactions?
Replies: 23
Views: 1103

Re: Do you record customer service interactions?

I tend to start taking notes only when things seem to be going wrong. Once things start getting complicated, I do go into full-bore record keeping mode and write notes of what customer service said, the date, their name if they will give it, and a reference number for the conversation if they have o...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9791

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

2008 was a real shock. The idea that stocks might not recover , because there would not be a financial system for them to recover into. Yes. The difference between a 25% drop and a 50% drop isn't a factor of two. It's the difference between an oncoming truck in the other lane crossing the center li...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9791

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

I can't really argue that 10% bonds does much good. However, I have in the past noticed more than one post by people who opted for 100% stocks and are still at 100% stocks five years before retirement, and not quite sure what to do, because they feel that it is time to have a bond allocation, but al...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car buyers...you should consider financing
Replies: 39
Views: 2922

Re: New car buyers...you should consider financing

I'm a "pay with cash, hate any debt" guy. Stop right there. That said, I took a new car loan at 5.9%. Oops. Skimming over your story. Obviously neither the dealer nor anybody else expects you to take out a loan and pay it back the next day--or makes money when you do. So my impression is that you p...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9791

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

(Incomplete post deleted by poster)
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9791

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

So the question is, are these two examples of a "bond market crash?"My answer is "no." Excuse me? Try to tell that to retirees in those time periods who had their purchasing power totally devastated for decades (including my own grandfather, by the way)... Let me try one last time. I still haven't ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Credit card protection vs. PayPal ?
Replies: 7
Views: 497

Re: Credit card protection vs. PayPal ?

Wait, I do have a "bad PayPal customer" story, but at second and across a language barrier. Also, during the event, I did call PayPal customer service, and they did answer the phone and all, but said (as I expected) that I couldn't do anything from my end, because I wasn't the customer having the pr...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Credit card protection vs. PayPal ?
Replies: 7
Views: 497

Re: Credit card protection vs. PayPal ?

I avoid PayPal due to bad stories, but have never had a dispute that needed to be resolved by PayPal so can't speak to this from personal experience. I have a PayPal account with $0.00 in it (because I sometimes use it for eBay purchases) but whenever an online purchase shows a PayPal versus credit ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Uber for someone who knows only taxis
Replies: 84
Views: 3757

Uber for someone who knows only taxis

I'm thinking that I probably need to sign up for and "learn how to use" Uber, as one more available transportation option. I've literally never used it before nor have I ever shared a ride with anyone using it. I'd like those who have used it to compare it, as best they can, to the experience of usi...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are expensive tires worth it?
Replies: 42
Views: 2426

Re: Are expensive tires worth it?

It depends on the reason why they are expensive. One reason for tires being expensive is that they are intended to resist the heat that builds up from driving 124 mph for long periods of time. If you drive 124 mph for long periods of time then, yes, you should pay for a tire with the appropriate spe...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric Car (Nissan Leaf) for a teen driver?
Replies: 21
Views: 1501

Re: Electric Car (Nissan Leaf) for a teen driver?

The battery in Leaf's changed about March of 2013 and the batteries after that date have proven to be significantly better. The date of manufacture is on the door. A late 2013 is a safe bet and there are lots of them off lease. If you want to get fancy, you can buy an app called LeafSpy Pro and a l...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 65
Views: 5582

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

So can we agree that, based on news accounts and on greyfox's experience, that, as of November 2017, 1) bitcoin is not a practical medium for ordinary consumers to use in everyday transactions with most well-known national retailers? bitcoin transactions are still a novelty and a hobby for early ado...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The valet smashed my Tesla into a brick wall!
Replies: 102
Views: 10561

Re: The valet smashed my Tesla into a brick wall!

Although this may sound grotesque to ask... was the valet OK? If so, at least you have a real-world test of Tesla's crash safety.
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9791

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

...The "danger" of bonds is not a negative nominal return but negative real returns, particularly over long periods... Yes, but I've never known how to get around this particular change of subject. The usual talk about bond "danger" starts by saying that there is a bubble in bonds, that interest ra...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9791

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

...The "danger" of bonds is not a negative nominal return but negative real returns, particularly over long periods... Yes, but I've never known how to get around this particular change of subject. The usual talk about bond "danger" starts by saying that there is a bubble in bonds, that interest ra...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 65
Views: 5582

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

...Somewhat officially, Bitcoin is now for "storing value", not for performing transactions... Which is a significant abandonment and retraction of claims formerly made for it, "somewhat officially." It is also a significant devaluing of its usefulness, because it isn't very good as a store of valu...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies
Replies: 40
Views: 3396

Re: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies

"The stock market today isn’t the stock market of 20 years ago." And when, exactly, in the past, has it ever been different? The stock market of 1977 wasn't the stock market of 1997, either. Furthermore, since his next words are "Investors, take heed," it is clear from that and the rest of the artic...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 65
Views: 5582

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Fascinating discussion, but my understanding is that in the US the IRS considers bitcoin to be an asset not a currency. So, when you buy bitcoin you acquire an asset and must record the cost in US dollars. When you then buy something, say a sandwich at Subway, you are selling the asset and must rec...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric Car (Nissan Leaf) for a teen driver?
Replies: 21
Views: 1501

Re: Electric Car (Nissan Leaf) for a teen driver?

Sounds OK to me. Yeah, I see the safety report. Kinda have to balance that against other concerns, it doesn't seem like a complete dealbreaker to me. Have you discussed this with her? Does she like the idea or dislike it? I assume she'll have a cell phone and can call you if she gets stranded. The m...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 53
Views: 3803

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

Thank you, lack_ey. I always learn from your posts (or I hope I do, sometimes I'm a slow learner). ...Something that Rekenthaler didn't talk about, and I think he should have, is that most of Vanguard's funds are long-only portfolios. They are just bundles of securities. I think the same is true of ...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you include the sale of your home as part of your retirement planning?
Replies: 75
Views: 3358

Re: Do you include the sale of your home as part of your retirement planning?

...Somehow, the cost of providing place to live needs to be accounted for... Indeed. And the economics of staying in a paid-for house ain't bad. Staying in the same community and downsizing--moving from a two-story house to a one-story house and building a ramp, say--doesn't generate any giant wind...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 53
Views: 3803

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

Yep, Vanguard has very little to offer someone who wants "alternatives." If I wanted "alternatives" I'd be looking outside Vanguard. However, I don't want them. I think the chief argument for "alternatives" is: Unless something is different from traditional securities (stocks and bonds), it can't be...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9791

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

...The relationship between yield and bonds is pretty straightforward, this isn't something that I made up, it is taught in freshman finance and is the basis of fixed income markets worldwide. Surprised this is a topic of discussion. Sure over periods of a year or two anything can happen, especiall...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9791

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Let me state this very precisely. For me, "holding bonds" means holding a "core" bond fund--meaning a diversified fund that holds only investment-grade bonds, and no longer than intermediate-term on average. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund is an example of such a fund; there are many others. F...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you include the sale of your home as part of your retirement planning?
Replies: 75
Views: 3358

Re: Do you include the sale of your home as part of your retirement planning?

We did not--not in any concrete, estimated dollar value in a spreadsheet, for two reasons. 1) It's an undiversified investment whose future sales value could not be accurately estimated and could not be counted on. 2) We have a small house and half-planned half-hoped to stay in it in retirement. Whi...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 28
Views: 1883

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

There are serious problems with everything. The problem with non-overlapping historical periods is that the sample size is too small; there have only been 91 years or three non-overlapping 30-year periods since 1926 (start of CRSP data set), only five since 1870 (start of the Cowles Commission data)...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?
Replies: 66
Views: 2600

Re: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?

[Deleted my post because I decided it was a little too close to being medical advice].
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2039

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

...When BusinessWeek comes out with a "Death of Value" cover, a huge rally in the Large Value stocks will be ahead. It took about 3-4 years after the infamous "Death of Equities" article for one of the greatest bull markets ever to ignite... The "Death of Equities" article is fine. It is constantly...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?
Replies: 66
Views: 2600

Re: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?

"Anything you are diagnosed for must be treated within the same six-month period as it will be considered a pre-existing condition for whatever insurance you buy at the end of the short term period--including another short-term policy. So I'm not sure what you mean by "renewing" it. If something ha...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?
Replies: 66
Views: 2600

Re: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?

"Short term" is what it says and it is very dangerous. Anything you are diagnosed for must be treated within the same six-month period as it will be considered a pre-existing condition for whatever insurance you buy at the end of the short term period--including another short-term policy. So I'm not...