Search found 35148 matches

by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio
Replies: 13
Views: 1078

Re: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio

The Four Pillars of Investing was published in 2003. Let's compare two 60/40 portfolios, using PortfolioVisualizer's asset class definitions, from 2003 through the present. For the 40, we will use "Total US Bond Market." For portfolio 1, blue, we will split up the 60 according to his ratios: 24% US...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio
Replies: 13
Views: 1078

Re: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio

Also, it is known that all such numbers should be prime numbers and the presence of 8 and 4 pretty much invalidates the suggestion. Wikipedia's definition: "Prime number (or a prime) is a natural number greater than 1 that cannot be formed by multiplying two smaller natural numbers." dbr: Why shoul...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?
Replies: 25
Views: 1845

Re: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?

I invest in bond funds for safety. (By which I mean, yes, volatility reduction). I do not hold any currency-hedged international bond funds (such as Vanguard's Total International Bond Fund) because the case for them providing any meaningful diversification, e.g. by Vanguard in Global fixed income: ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much (green) cash at home for emergency ?
Replies: 48
Views: 3197

Re: How much (green) cash at home for emergency ?

Even using screen names, I don't think it is wise to discuss how much money you keep in your house.
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MS Office 2016 "The Operating System Is Not Presently Configured To Run This Application"
Replies: 10
Views: 835

Re: MS Office 2016 "The Operating System Is Not Presently Configured To Run This Application"

About ten or fifteen years ago, I concluded that the only safe way to use antivirus programs is to do manual scans. I do periodic manual scans (under Mac OS X) with Avast and Malwarebytes, and resist all nagging entreaties to install real-time shields or continuous internet protection or background ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 37
Views: 4264

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

...Bitcoin is hard money... Please tell me your definition of "hard money" and cite a source for that definition. Brushing aside the unrelated term "hard money lending," I will assume that by "hard money" you mean the same thing "hard currency." Some definitions of "hard currency" include: Oxford E...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 659
Views: 151563

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Not looking to get into a discussion about gold so I'll just leave it with the comment that "extra benefit" isn't the point of holding it. Even though I don't implement the PP, nor do I intend to, the point of the PP seems to be to have an allocation that is at least theoretically likely to provide...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mechanisms for disappearance of factor premia -- how does it work for momentum?
Replies: 14
Views: 728

Re: Mechanisms for disappearance of factor premia -- how does it work for momentum?

...I find it more tricky to understand how the momentum premium would disappear when more people start investing in momentum stocks. Momentum stocks are stocks which have recently performed well, and if more investors start buying such recent winners, their price should go up even more, hence ampli...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 35
Views: 3252

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

nisiprius: Back in this thread Small-cap tilt, 1925-2004: good enough to make you switch? , you concluded that the the small cap effect is there but that it is small. (That is my favorite BH thread ever, BTW). I'm curious if that is still your view or if you have evolved a bit and concluded the tha...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 56
Views: 3030

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

It is often overlooked--thanks to "spin" by people whose incomes depending on sales of stocks and bonds, and a too-strict interpretation of the word "cash"--that (assuming reasonable due diligence in selection), ...bank savings accounts, CDs, and Treasury bills have historically kept up with inflati...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 24
Views: 1742

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

I think it's an interesting idea. I like the idea that the stock market itself does not possess Siegel's "extraordinary stability," but that it reflects the stability or lack thereof of the underlying economy. Now all we need is a forward-looking way to estimate statistical expectations of the avera...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 12
Views: 1161

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

Agreed that it has been shown that Gross was not the only contributor at PTTRX and that his leaving did not seem to hurt the fund in a major way. Gross's current fund has quite a different mandate then PTTRX so maybe should not be compared to it. Yes and no. The prospectus objective for PTTRX, the ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilt is enough to make a difference?
Replies: 27
Views: 1751

Re: How much tilt is enough to make a difference?

With the usual proviso about past performance, I suggest you conduct some PortfolioVisualizer backtests using your current portfolio, your selection of "the value fund" you propose to use, and the effect of replacing various parts of the 40% SWSTX with it. Since the question is about "making a diffe...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 12
Views: 1161

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

As to recent decline: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-grosss-janus-unconstrained-bond-fund-drops-sharply-1527688629 Standard WSJ paywall to deal with. Analysts believe the fund was caught wrong footed on a big bet on the relative yields between German and Italian bonds. Gross had been making reco...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 12
Views: 1161

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

Actually I was referring to the very recent fall-off in Bill Gross' current fund, unaccompanied by any similar falls in Total Bond or PIMCO Total Return or the Harbor fund you mentioned. Bill Gross' departure had very little obvious-to-the-eye effect on PIMCO Total Return, and the fact that investor...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I "market timing"?
Replies: 37
Views: 1801

Re: Am I "market timing"?

I think it is much better to say "Am I market timing? Very well then I am market timing. (I am large, I contain multitudes)*," then to do some market timing and kid yourself that you are not market timing. Or, to riff on another source, "Time. Or time not. There is no 'am I.'" *Walt Whitman, "Song o...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 12
Views: 1161

Bill Gross' fund, lately...

In a recent thread about Jeff Gundlach's predictions, cfs commented: Television camera chasers. Gundlach, Bill Gross, and others well-known here. Ignore y gracias por leer / cfs Bill Gross! The "Bond King." That's a name I haven't heard in... well, months. So how is his fund, the Janus, excuse me Ja...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%
Replies: 18
Views: 3089

Re: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%

cfs wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:32 am
Television camera chasers. Gundlach, Bill Gross, and others well-known here. Ignore y gracias por leer / cfs
Bill Gross. There's a name that hasn't come up lately. Think I'll start another thread about that...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I feel like selling my 3 fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4502

Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

"I feel like selling my 3 fund"--leo28 "Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy."--John C. Bogle It you can't stand to do nothing at all, if you feel an uncontrollable itch to sell, scratch it by making a tiny incremental change . Then force yourself to wait for a couple of months and see how thi...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should your employment/income source determine your investment choices?
Replies: 13
Views: 887

Re: Should your employment/income source determine your investment choices?

The idea of considering your job as an investment asset has never made any sense to me. The most obvious point is that you own your investments, but you do not own your job. It is not your property. But, above all, I don't think there's anything actionable in the idea, because you do not have even r...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SleepScore App
Replies: 7
Views: 654

Re: SleepScore App

If you are seriously dissatisfied with your quality of sleep, to the point where you suspect it may be unhealthy, then I think you should consider an evaluation by a sleep clinic.
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?
Replies: 36
Views: 3302

Re: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?

(I'm staying the course in Total Bond... and if I were going to shift, I wouldn't shift to shorter-term bond funds, I'd just shrug and put it in a well-chosen bank savings account). I thought that the oldest post saying "interest rates can only go up" was this one, from 2009 Interest rates can only ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job in MA, live in MA, RI, or CT?
Replies: 66
Views: 2456

Re: Job in MA, live in MA, RI, or CT?

I don't know your tolerance for highway congestion. I wouldn't say we have the very worst congestion in the country, but we have bad congestion. https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/congestion_report_04/images/figure3_10.gif For about twenty years of my life (two different jobs), I had a forty-mile-each-way hig...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 124
Views: 9072

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

...Now, Dave of course recommends no bonds. But while he may give some borrower slave to lender nonsense why bonds aren't good... Just to be clear. When you own a bond, you are the lender and the bond issuer is the borrower. I understand you to say that Dave Ramsey objects to all loans , not just b...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 35
Views: 3252

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

Larry Swedroe has sent me three PMs, which he has given me permission to quote. I will quote them verbatim with slight trimming, and without further comment. First, the extra risk is the compensation for the premium, eliminate the risk adjustment and there is no market beta premium either, so that i...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 35
Views: 3252

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

Here's the thing about correlations and "the portfolio as a whole." It is a robust and compelling effect when we talk about diversifying stocks by adding bonds. It is tenuous and evasive for subclasses of stocks mixed with other subclasses of stocks, and for subclasses of bonds mixed with other subc...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 35
Views: 3252

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

Point #2: Adjusting for risk Discussions of the size effect always get slippery if we are not clear on whether we just mean "return" or whether we mean "risk adjusted return." Recall that the original statement for the size effect in its original form, in Rolf Banz words, was "It is found that small...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 35
Views: 3252

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

Point #1: Resetting the clock Notice that Larry Swedroe puts the word "saved" within quotation marks: However, they do “save” the size effect by demonstrating it is made much stronger (and implementation costs are reduced) when size is combined with the newer common factors of profitability, quality...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thrivent?
Replies: 17
Views: 1687

Re: Thrivent?

CedarWaxWing wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:22 am
In what way is it Lutheran?

M
I don't think it is any more. It used to be "Lutheran Brotherhood," then it was "Thrivent Financial for Lutherans," but now it is just "Thrivent." (Checking) It stopped being Lutheran in 2013. It is now "a financial membership organization for Christians."
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 124
Views: 9072

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

A Ramsey portfolio at AF's is: AMCPX/AGTHX/AIVSX/AMRMX/NEWFX/ANWPX/SMCWX/CWGIX. What's your authority for that? Can you point us to something on Ramsey's site (or the American Funds site) that says that this is the Ramsey portfolio? And could you please tell me which of Ramsey's four categories (Ag...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 124
Views: 9072

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

...Now I'm wondering why he has stuck with those labels for so long (I had thought it was to match American funds). The words Growth and Growth and Income seem too similar to American funds to be a coincidence in my opinion. So I wonder where the other categories come from. Me, too. To everything y...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?
Replies: 22
Views: 865

Re: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?

It would be interesting to do this for a longer period of time, but for now I'll just do what was easy. From 1985 to 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has always been in the range 7X to 10X the S&P.

Image
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?
Replies: 22
Views: 865

Re: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?

The fact that the DJIA is a useful metric illustrates how easy it is to get drawn into hairsplitting and "angels dancing on the head of a pin." The reason why it continues to be quoted is that it has a longer continuous history than any other measure. The S&P 500 (contrary to what is often stated) o...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%
Replies: 18
Views: 3089

Re: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%

...his past calls have been interesting nonetheless imo... Like this one? "Though I rarely go public with specifics on stocks, I think the Standard & Poor's 500, which is now over 1300, will hit 500 in the next couple of years," he says. -- Barron's, "The King of Bonds," Feb. 21, 2011. Red: predict...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 124
Views: 9072

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

I wonder how many people can even find the investments he recommends: 25% Aggressive Growth 25% Growth 25% Growth and Income 25% International ...For anyone who has access to a computer and looks on American funds page will also see those exact words. For anyone who sits on the internet complaining...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 37
Views: 4264

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

There is certainly a market for secure, purely digital payment methods, and Bitcoin was developed with that in mind from the beginning. Who can say if Bitcoin ever ends up fulfilling that role. The odds are probably against it, but if it happens, every household in the world is going to need to hav...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 37
Views: 4264

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

jdilla1107 wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:08 pm
...How is manipulating bitcoin a crime?...
I think fraud is a crime.
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any problem opening fund "Investor", then building to "Admiral"?
Replies: 25
Views: 1542

Re: Any problem opening fund "Investor", then building to "Admiral"?

It's easy. Yes, Vanguard "converts" Investor shares to Admiral automatically, but they can be slow about doing it. There is also a link for doing the conversion, that will show on the website when the shares are eligible for conversion, so you can do it yourself instead of waiting for them. Their de...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone regret paying off mortgage early?
Replies: 435
Views: 97530

Re: Anyone regret paying off mortgage early?

No, we've never regretted paying off our mortgage early. Housing security is worth a lot.
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Small Caps Outperform?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Do Small Caps Outperform?

Vineviz, how did you access the Ibbotson Associates data in PortfolioVisualizer? I'm going to present some data that partly supports, partly contradicts my point of view. Here's the thing. Yes, of course it is true that under some circumstances, and using the MPT/CAPM framework, you can get portfoli...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can dividends be "lost" during transition period of a rollover IRA?
Replies: 4
Views: 338

Re: Can dividends be "lost" during transition period of a rollover IRA?

No. I've made in-kind transfers a number of times. I have no idea what goes on behind the scenes, it is obviously complicated, but dividends are not lost, although they can be temporarily invisible. It's almost a nuisance. What happens in practice is that in a transfer from custodian X to custodian ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years
Replies: 20
Views: 2639

Re: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years

I don't think people should waste their time on things like this. The chances that you'll remember to check in ten years is small. And selective memory guarantees that we are all have a bias toward remembering successful predictions and forgetting failed ones. In April of 2014 Bloomberg polled 67 ec...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Small Caps Outperform?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Do Small Caps Outperform?

...You still haven’t answered why you compared the Russell 2000 index to the S&P 500 index... That wasn't me. I never made any such comparison. Whoops... sorry. Got confused trying to type the response out on my phone. Thought you were OP? My eyes are getting bad and I’m getting old... either way m...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why don't we index the Nasdaq too?
Replies: 16
Views: 1967

Re: Why don't we index the Nasdaq too?

midareff, seriously: why would someone want "a NASDAQ tilt" rather than "a tech tilt?" That is, why would one invest in a NASDAQ-tracking fund or ETF rather than an information technology sector ETF like VGT? Can you articulate some reasons? Do you personally feel that the tech companies that list o...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why don't we index the Nasdaq too?
Replies: 16
Views: 1967

Re: Why don't we index the Nasdaq too?

Just wondering.. we index the TSM, the S&P500, the TISM.. why not the Nasdaq? Fidelity has a fund that does that FWIW. In your own statement, you gave an example of an index fund that does. So quite obviously people do. $66 billion in QQQ. ($1.79 billion in ONEQ, Fidelity NASDAQ Composite ETF. A re...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does CAPM make sense?
Replies: 23
Views: 1012

Re: Why does CAPM make sense?

I quote Sharpe ratios a lot. 1) It makes sense to me that you absolutely need to take risk into account as well as return when you are comparing two investments. Personally, regardless of how any other investors act, I am not willing to take extra risk unless I have a conviction that there is a like...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 Year Rule - Not allowed to execute new investment strategy until 1 year has passed
Replies: 27
Views: 2381

Re: 1 Year Rule - Not allowed to execute new investment strategy until 1 year has passed

I think something like this is a good idea. I've done something similar, although not as complicated and not as strict, myself. In my case, it took two forms. First, I try to wait a month (just a month!) between deciding to do something and actually doing it. And, second: I have a rule that I make n...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Small Caps Outperform?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Do Small Caps Outperform?

So? The probability of success is one of the most important pieces of information you need when evaluating uncertain events (like stock market returns). Payoff and costs are the other two big ones. But, by your own chosen metric, leveraged large-caps would have been superior to small-caps. If "succ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Small Caps Outperform?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Do Small Caps Outperform?

...Small caps have still outperformed large caps in 64 of the 73 rolling 20-year periods since 1926... So? The probability of success is one of the most important pieces of information you need when evaluating uncertain events (like stock market returns). Payoff and costs are the other two big ones...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Small Caps Outperform?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Do Small Caps Outperform?

Culbretd wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:27 pm
nisiprius wrote:(things)
...You still haven’t answered why you compared the Russell 2000 index to the S&P 500 index...
That wasn't me. I never made any such comparison.