Search found 35019 matches

by nisiprius
Sun May 27, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should REITs and BDCs be looked at more like bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 827

Re: Should REITs and BDCs be looked at more like bonds?

Most portfolios rely on bonds to provide safety and reduce volatility. REITs and BDCs provide neither. I think that they are sensitive to interest rates (as are bonds), but are higher-risk, possibly higher-reward investments. They perhaps share some characteristics of high-yield bonds, but may not ...
by nisiprius
Sun May 27, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should REITs and BDCs be looked at more like bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 827

Re: Should REITs and BDCs be looked at more like bonds?

How do mREITs fit into the picture with their mortgage servicing rights and hedging strategies? How many of these companies are included in the REIT indexes? Invest in them or don't invest in them, but calling stocks "bonds" is not going to do you or anybody else any good. It's just blurring the pi...
by nisiprius
Sun May 27, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 11
Views: 711

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

My take is that markets can do unexpected things. If you think German Bonds are a riskless bet with potentially big upside for Italian investors, chances are that others are noticing that too, particularly the very large institutions. My guess is that this is all built into the price of German Bond...
by nisiprius
Sun May 27, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Books on stock market cycles/crashes and derivatives markets
Replies: 7
Views: 465

Re: Books on stock market cycles/crashes and derivatives markets

For the long view: Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises , by Charles P. Kindelberger and Robert Aliber. I don't know how recent it gets in the current edition. I read an older edition, with only Kindleberger listed as author. It's international in scope and covers centuries. An...
by nisiprius
Sun May 27, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing?
Replies: 11
Views: 777

Re: Factor Investing?

Note that I'm a factor skeptic an the data point I'll present works against my personal views. There is a piece of data that supports factor investing and seems "prospective." In 1998, Bill Schultheis published a book, "The Coffeehouse Investor," which presented a "Coffeehouse Portfolio" which was a...
by nisiprius
Sat May 26, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Slice-'N-Dice Equities: Isn’t That Buying Low & Selling High?
Replies: 8
Views: 535

Re: Rebalancing Slice-'N-Dice Equities: Isn’t That Buying Low & Selling High?

If the assets you are rebalancing show active mean reversion, and if your rebalancing interval roughly matches the period of time over which mean reversion occurs, then you will be systematically buying low and selling high. If not, not. So the questions becomes a) is what I just said above true? (Y...
by nisiprius
Sat May 26, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should REITs and BDCs be looked at more like bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 827

Re: Should REITs and BDCs be looked at more like bonds?

REITs have the same level or return and volatility as the overall market. However, for a asset to reduce volatility it does not have to have low volatility. It can actually even have higher volatility. What it needs is a low correlation with the other asset classes in the portfolio. In theory it is...
by nisiprius
Sat May 26, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should REITs and BDCs be looked at more like bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 827

Re: Should REITs and BDCs be looked at more like bonds?

The blue line shows a REIT fund, Vanguard REIT index, VGSIX. The orange line is a bond fund, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, VBMFX. The green line is a general stock market fund, Vanguard Stock Market Index Fund, VTSMX. Considering them overall, and taking into account return, and risk as mea...
by nisiprius
Sat May 26, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm an indexer... but...
Replies: 37
Views: 3918

Re: I'm an indexer... but...

My belief is that active funds are probably not all that terrible, but they are slightly deceptive, and mild rip-offs. There are three big sources of deception: 1) 20/20 hindsight. There are over seven thousand mutual funds. Hundreds of them are going to outperform by luck alone. Nobody is going to ...
by nisiprius
Fri May 25, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3036
Views: 934585

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I'm 1/3th of the way into Love in the Time of Cholera (in English translation) by Gabriel García Márquez. I've never read anything by him before and it seems long overdue. I'm not trying to read it in Spanish because I am still working on two titles in Spanish ( La Sombra del Viento (Shadow of the W...
by nisiprius
Fri May 25, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3036
Views: 934585

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just finished The Feather Thief: Beauty, Obsession, and the Natural History Heist of the Century , by Kirk Wallace Johnson, on my wife's recommendation. It's nonfiction and about the first 4/5ths of it are just sensational. It sort of peters out at the end (because the author, who'd taken it on as a...
by nisiprius
Fri May 25, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman & Financial Engines merging
Replies: 36
Views: 3617

Re: Edelman & Financial Engines merging

My recollection is that it was 2.24% inclusive of the fund fees but that was 14-15 months ago and I read the paperwork in a single sitting. Given the size of her portfolio this is consistent with my comment of $400/mo in fees. Aside from the expenses the portfolio was logical. It was sliced and dic...
by nisiprius
Fri May 25, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5165

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

...As triceratop has pointed out more than once, the full extent of any claim that Fama & French made on this front is that their three factor pricing model explains asset returns better than the single factor CAPM. This is, in fact, easy to verify. From 1972 to present, CAPM explains about 75.4% o...
by nisiprius
Thu May 24, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5165

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

...Yes after posting I realized what the chart was showing. From 1926-1975 and from 1984-2012 Small Caps performed identically. But what makes that the arbiter of the premium? What is special about 1926? What is special about 1984? It seems to me that the premium only didn’t show itself when you st...
by nisiprius
Thu May 24, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5165

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

...Who told you that factors have something to do with PCA?... Nobody, but I did think they had something to do with factor analysis. I was wrong. (Factor analysis is somewhat similar to principal component analysis. I only mentioned principal component analysis because I actually did it once, and ...
by nisiprius
Thu May 24, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5165

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

...I guess I do not understand the point of this chart. If you take out the best performing period of an asset class of course it will bring the overall returns down. If we hack out the 8 year period of Large Cap returns from 1984-1991 Small Cap obliterates Large Cap. Have I made the size premium r...
by nisiprius
Thu May 24, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5165

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

That the magnitude of effect of the value factor is dependent on size would be an example of a violation of independence between the variables. Although any given asset may load on both size and value factors, the factors themselves are independent. I don't believe they are. I'm confused about this...
by nisiprius
Thu May 24, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 32
Views: 1563

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

Quick, quick experiment. 80% large cap, 20% small cap value , 1972-present, whatever PortfolioVisualizer uses for those asset classes. Standard deviations: 80% x 10.23% (US large cap) 20% x 14.23% (US small cap value) Weighted average: 11.03% Actual portfolio standard deviation: 11.16% Diversificati...
by nisiprius
Thu May 24, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 32
Views: 1563

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

I'm nervous about downloading the Choueifaty and Coignard paper at the tobam.fr site, because both Safari and Firefox are issuing fairly serious-sounding warnings about security issues with the site--it has the wrong security certificate or its misconfigured and Firefox is warning that some might b...
by nisiprius
Thu May 24, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 32
Views: 1563

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

In my mind, a maximally diversified portfolio is one in which what the diversification ratio (DR) is maximized. The diversification ratio is a relatively new concept, and basically is the portfolio's weighted average asset volatility divided by its actual volatility. It appears to have been introdu...
by nisiprius
Thu May 24, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5165

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

It is according to Prof. Siegel's look at the January effect, from "Stocks for the Long Run": For one thing, Siegel was only looking at small cap stocks in general and not small cap value in particular. Yes, and the topic of this thread is "the size effect." It is specifically about one factor, the...
by nisiprius
Thu May 24, 2018 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 32
Views: 1563

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

You already have precious metal equity in your 2 other funds, and this as market weight. You do not have Emerging Markets. If you buy more of the precious metal fund you will concentrate more of your money in a very narrow sub-sector, with a multiple of the market weig, and hence be less diversifie...
by nisiprius
Wed May 23, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?
Replies: 13
Views: 912

Re: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?

I think it is because somebody used 50/50 once and everybody else followed, so no real reason. Or maybe somebody did a study and only back-tested 50/50, so that is what you get. Something similar happened with the dosage for baby aspirin. Ever wonder why the pills are a very oddball dose? What's so...
by nisiprius
Wed May 23, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?
Replies: 13
Views: 912

Re: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?

lack_ey wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 6:19 pm
Edelman's is showing as half value, half growth. Not half blend.
:oops:

I was going to replace it with something else, but the first Betterment sample portfolio I found in a Google search is all "value" ETFs, no "blend," while Wealthfront's does not have either a value or a growth tilt.
by nisiprius
Wed May 23, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?
Replies: 13
Views: 912

Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?

Here are the model portfolios from Larry Swedroe's 1998 "The Only Guide To Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need:" https://imgur.com/5LoOm8h.png Bill Schultheis' "Traditional Coffeehouse Portfolio:" https://imgur.com/hRaj2zQ.png Notice that those portfolios allocate 50/50 between large-cap bl...
by nisiprius
Wed May 23, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5165

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

Thanks, lack_ey.
by nisiprius
Wed May 23, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman & Financial Engines merging
Replies: 36
Views: 3617

Re: Edelman & Financial Engines merging

What the fumarole is "Exponential Technologies?" The only one I ever heard of is It's something of an investment theme for Ric Edelman that he pushed, and he has enough AUM and clout to actually make a fund happen. Check out iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT), which uses an index from Mornin...
by nisiprius
Wed May 23, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Returns Can Teach
Replies: 6
Views: 924

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Returns Can Teach

I’m chasing an alpha of zero, after taxes and fees. Indeed. The last sentence in the article quotes the authors as saying "They know that alpha is important, but cannot effectively capture it.” Why is alpha important? Persistent alpha would be important. If, as the authors say, it is "negatively au...
by nisiprius
Wed May 23, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best buy and hold vanguard fund forever...
Replies: 28
Views: 2970

Re: Best buy and hold vanguard fund forever...

??? "Forever" implies into and through retirement. Without getting into the debate about glide paths, I personally find that my own risk tolerance has indeed matched up well with the idea of declining risk tolerance with age, therefore a declining stock allocation with age. Now, of course, you only ...
by nisiprius
Wed May 23, 2018 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 51
Views: 4902

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

...But the goal of passive investing is not passivity in the sense of no transactions, the goal is to replicate the "market portfolio."... I'm not sure if I agree with that or not :-? Something about that definition rubs a little bit funny. The idea of "passive investing" has been around long befor...
by nisiprius
Wed May 23, 2018 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5165

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

...That's not contradictory, though... The conclusions about size being more robust are only in the context of a multi-factor model that controls for junk. Not the regular size factor that you'd see in the Fama-French 3-factor model. The second paper makes a different point about different effects,...
by nisiprius
Tue May 22, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5165

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

This is a great find. As the graph clearly shows, there is a substantial return to the size factor in January, but absolutely no evidence of any size premium outside of January. The returns to size are completely flat throughout most of the year. Whatever premium the size factor has seems to be gen...
by nisiprius
Tue May 22, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5165

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

Another interesting read from AQR, from 2015: The Small-Firm Effect is Real, and it's Spectacular , and the 2015 paper it references, Size Matters, if you Control Your Junk by five authors including two of the authors of the 2018 paper . (As a general skeptic I like the 2018 paper better. That's jus...
by nisiprius
Tue May 22, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 51
Views: 4902

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

To me the ideal passive stock market fund would be one that never, ever trades. That's even better than an index fund that trades smartly. The only downside is a gradual loss of diversification, which is meaningless over a human lifetime. Why is that ideal? Lowest cost. You mean like the Voya Corpo...
by nisiprius
Tue May 22, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do people still use AAA?
Replies: 293
Views: 22871

Re: Do people still use AAA?

We still use it. The last time we used was in 2017. We were at a campground in Nebraska. We let the battery go dead, my own fault. I have no doubt the campground hosts could have helped us call a tow truck with a booster battery or perhaps given us a boost themselves, but anyway, AAA worked fine. To...
by nisiprius
Tue May 22, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman & Financial Engines merging
Replies: 36
Views: 3617

Re: Edelman & Financial Engines merging

Bogleheads: I would like to see an actual portfolio designed by the Ric Edelman group. Thank you and Best wishes. Taylor Ric has a quick robo advisor: Ric GPS I do not think this counts as an "actual portfolio." I can't speak for Taylor but to me an "actual portfolio" would name the actual funds an...
by nisiprius
Tue May 22, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 129
Views: 9341

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

guyesmith wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 3:12 pm
...I see your point that the US-only outperforms...
I think my real point is that "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, but, in practice, there is."
by nisiprius
Tue May 22, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?
Replies: 25
Views: 2770

Re: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?

...I mean, we agree this is an especially terrible fund right?... I wouldn't know. I think it's the only mutual fund that tracks S&P 600 Pure Value, which, if so, would make it both the worst and the best fund of its kind. Maybe there is general agreement that it is a terrible fund in hindsight, bu...
by nisiprius
Tue May 22, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 129
Views: 9341

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

This is a sort of a trick question and I do not want to hide the fact that it's a trick question... but I am going to be tricky enough not to state what I think the explanation is. According to the Credit Suisse Global Returns Yearbook, from 1900 through 2017 (i.e. over a century): The total real re...
by nisiprius
Tue May 22, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is HFXIX (Catalyst Hedged Futures Strategy Fund) a good idea for long-term, low-risk capital preservation?
Replies: 8
Views: 404

Re: Is HFXIX (Catalyst Hedged Futures Strategy Fund) a good idea for long-term, low-risk capital preservation?

I'm a BH newbie, and I appreciate everyone's willingness to help with financial education. I recently stumbled upon HFXIX in my quest to learn more about financial assets. Initially, HFXIX sounded like a good place to park a small chunk of money for a long period of time (about a decade, which is w...
by nisiprius
Tue May 22, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is HFXIX (Catalyst Hedged Futures Strategy Fund) a good idea for long-term, low-risk capital preservation?
Replies: 8
Views: 404

Re: Is HFXIX (Catalyst Hedged Futures Strategy Fund) a good idea for long-term, low-risk capital preservation?

I am an unsophisticated investor. This is partly because, when I look carefully at sophisticated asset classes and strategies, I find them unconvincing. Bogleheads usually invest in traditional "securities:" stocks, bonds, and cash-equivalents, and we usually do so via broad-based mutual funds and E...
by nisiprius
Mon May 21, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have Annuity Rates Gone Up?
Replies: 15
Views: 1646

Re: Have Annuity Rates Gone Up?

Relation between annuity yield and interest rates https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2015/08/25/annuity-pricing-sensitivity/#6aaf64d374d2 Yes, higher present interest rates do increase the yield, but less than point-for-point. Because much of the payout from an annuity is not coming from interes...
by nisiprius
Mon May 21, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11408

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Iran sanction. Production cut and consumption up. Supply and demand. Usually at end of business cycle, oil will perform well. I am adding energy too. Venezuela, too. Incredible as it seems, the Venezuelan government has not even managed to maintain the infrastructure for oil production: Oil Rises a...
by nisiprius
Mon May 21, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman & Financial Engines merging
Replies: 36
Views: 3617

Re: Edelman & Financial Engines merging

I hope Financial Engines was telling the truth, when they said they would delete all my data when I closed the free account I had with them. Some may recall that they were originally a completely free-as-in-beer website, and I opened an account with them in the year 2000 and gave them all my financi...
by nisiprius
Mon May 21, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11408

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

I'm with Victoria. Yes, it's worth revisiting one's old predictions, but by jumping the gun, Snowjob has simply launched a fresh round of arguments over our personal predictions about the next seven months. Of course, willthrill's point is how bad predictions are, but he is predicting that Snowjob'...
by nisiprius
Mon May 21, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?
Replies: 90
Views: 14298

Re: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?

What are the disadvanges of the brokerage account vs the mutual fund account? I remember clicking something to accept the upgrade a year or two back but haven't noticed any differences. The mutual fund accounts offered a variety of automatically scheduled purchases, sales, and exchanges. I don't th...
by nisiprius
Mon May 21, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?
Replies: 90
Views: 14298

Re: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?

I will just point out that this is the way Fidelity has done it at least since 2006, probably much earlier, and probably Schwab, too. My only "account" at Fidelity was a brokerage account, and Fidelity funds were held within the brokerage account. As far as I know it is still possible to have an acc...
by nisiprius
Mon May 21, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11408

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

I'm with Victoria. Yes, it's worth revisiting one's old predictions, but by jumping the gun, Snowjob has simply launched a fresh round of arguments over our personal predictions about the next seven months. Of course, willthrill's point is how bad predictions are, but he is predicting that Snowjob's...
by nisiprius
Sun May 20, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 54
Views: 3714

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

We have the package of ordinary new safety and driver-assist features on our ordinary 2016-model car: pre-collision sensing, late departure alert, blind spot sensing, and so forth. I think it's worthwhile. Three features we find really valuable are the blind-spot sensing, the "rear cross traffic" al...
by nisiprius
Sun May 20, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 81
Views: 10831

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

He never mentions Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). He never says why. Are his comments supposed to apply to TIPS, too, or only to nominal bonds? I don't know. AFAIK he hasn't said. I've followed Buffett for a long time and don't recall him ever specifically addressing TIPS, but I fee...