Search found 35436 matches

by nisiprius
Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today
Replies: 9
Views: 444

Re: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today

I expressed an opinion of sorts in GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks." In the year 2018, I don't think there's any more reason for anyone following the Bogleheads investment philosophy to invest in individual stocks--even the stocks of gigantic "diversified" companies--than there is in alloc...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Multifactor Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 437

Re: The Case for Multifactor Funds

vineviz, you probably meant to link to The Case for Multifactor Funds.

The link you provided is to an article that could have been entitled "the case for Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta International Equity ETF (GSIE)."
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 11
Views: 968

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

I shall ignore the 110-year-old anecdote about alleged successes of unidentified "old veterans of Wall street" unless you can convince me that those venerable gents in were investing in emerging markets index funds in 1908.
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is short-term dollar-cost averaging (e.g. across 1 week) beneficial?
Replies: 6
Views: 497

Re: Is short-term dollar-cost averaging (e.g. across 1 week) beneficial?

I personally believe you are correct and I have literally done it myself, using Vanguard's automated transfers to make a purchase in the form of four purchases of 1/4th of the total amount spaced a week apart. My semi-rational analysis of the benefit is that if you assume the price fluctuations are ...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 61
Views: 3457

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

The problem with any flexible or variable withdrawal system is how to calculate a "figure of merit" for it. Of course you can withdraw more much of the time if you're willing to cut back during tough times. But how do you decide which is better or worse between one system that backtests with a 20% c...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adult piggy bank
Replies: 33
Views: 2202

Re: Adult piggy bank

Since we eventually take it to the bank (they have a self-service coin counting machine for customers), in theory, for us, it should be something compact, unbreakable, and not too silly looking so that we could take it to the bank directly instead of transferring it. In reality we use a Mason jar an...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding only VWENX for retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 953

Re: Holding only VWENX for retirement

Wellington is 100% US. <--- I was wrong, see KlangFool below. Wellington is currently, according to Morningstar , 51.17% US stock and 13.45% international stock, meaning that 21% of its stock holdings are international. That is interesting. I always assumed (incorrectly) that Wellington invested in...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bigger Story: Fidelity Expense Ratios
Replies: 90
Views: 7795

Re: The Bigger Story: Fidelity Expense Ratios

I saw a TV ad for Fidelity's ZERO® funds, I believe it was while my wife was watching the evening news. So Fidelity is not only doing this, they are actively promoting and marketing it.
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why bonds when they return nothing over inflation?
Replies: 16
Views: 2450

Re: Why bonds when they return nothing over inflation?

I think one should consciously avoid stating things about investments in the present tense as if they were fixed characteristics. I think you should considered editing your subject line--you can do this yourself, just "edit" the initial post and change the subject line--to say either 1) "Why bonds, ...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding only VWENX for retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 953

Re: Holding only VWENX for retirement

KlangFool wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:33 pm
nisiprius wrote:...Wellington is 100% US....
nisiprius,

<<Wellington is 100% US. >>

The foreign holding is about 12.5%.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... olio/vwenx

KlangFool
Ouch. Shame on me. Thank you for pointing that out. I've corrected my posting, above.
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding only VWENX for retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 953

Re: Holding only VWENX for retirement

Holding one fund is a fine idea if the one fund matches your desired allocation. "Holding only VWENX" is well within the range of sanity. VWENX has a stock allocation that would be too high for me. I won't get into whether or not VWENX is preferable to a pure index fund with 60/40 allocation, the Va...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Magic Formula Results
Replies: 23
Views: 1409

Re: Magic Formula Results

When I first learned about it, I said "if it's really a formula and it really works, why doesn't someone embody it in the form of a mutual fund?" In 2011, Greenblatt did just that, launching: Formula Investing U.S. Value Select (FNSAX) Formula Investing International Value Select (FNAAX) Formula Inv...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do index funds affect stock valuations?
Replies: 10
Views: 485

Re: How do index funds affect stock valuations?

They cannot affect relative stock valuations because what you are buying or selling exactly matches the composition of the market. In theory, if you tried to buy a really enormous amount of an index fund--let's say an index ETF like VTI--there might not be enough stocks available at the current mark...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the best way to determine if one should buy something or save their money?
Replies: 29
Views: 1694

Re: What is the best way to determine if one should buy something or save their money?

The only rule I have is that it is not the one-time purchases or splurges that do the damage, it's anything with continuing monthly payments. Among other things, it is amazingly difficult to give up e.g. any magazine subscription, even if you are hardly reading and aren't enjoying the magazine. So I...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1481

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Whenever I've checked, the price for a CPI-linked annuity has been a tad less than the pr...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P Risk Parity Index Family
Replies: 9
Views: 495

Re: S&P Risk Parity Index Family

This seems on the face of it to pin down the meaning of "risk parity" to mean not only equalizing risk between asset classes, but also defining the specific set of asset classes that need to be in a portfolio for it to be called "risk parity." However, aren't they different from the asset classes u...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P Risk Parity Index Family
Replies: 9
Views: 495

Re: S&P Risk Parity Index Family

Why does it use "futures contracts" for equities, which can easily be invested in directly and which wouldn't seem to need to be leveraged up to increase their risk?
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P Risk Parity Index Family
Replies: 9
Views: 495

Re: S&P Risk Parity Index Family

This seems on the face of it to pin down the meaning of "risk parity" to mean not only equalizing risk between asset classes, but also defining the specific set of asset classes that need to be in a portfolio for it to be called "risk parity." However, aren't they different from the asset classes us...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preferred stock as bond substitute: is there a thread?
Replies: 6
Views: 503

Re: Preferred stock as bond substitute: is there a thread?

Stocks are stocks. Bonds are bonds. They are fundamentally different. Neither can be a "substitute" for the other, any more than tea can be a substitute for coffee... not even the darkest, strongest, smokiest-tasting tea. "High-yield" (junk) bonds are somewhat stock-like bonds. Preferred stocks are ...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 61
Views: 3457

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

"Rising equity glide path" is probably a misnomer, and Kitces has stopped calling it that . Recently he has been calling it a a bond tent . The point is not so much to increase your equity allocation during retirement. The point is to go to a higher bond allocation (and thus a lower equity allocatio...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter part 8: Small-caps
Replies: 0
Views: 173

Matter/Scatter part 8: Small-caps

Matter/scatter, part 8: Small caps and micro-caps Part 1: Introduction , Part 2: Bond fund choices, , Part 3, International bonds, Part 4: Bond allocation . Part 5: International stocks Part 6: Expense ratios Part 7: Bonds during the financial crisis Brief notes: 1) In these Monte Carlo simulations,...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3440

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

For at least five years, e.g. 2013, when John C. Bogle said we have to fix the bond index , there has been a faction saying the ordinary investor should be holding more corporate bonds than in the Lehman/BarCap/Bloomberg aggregate index. And there has been another faction saying the ordinary investo...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paper checks yes or no?
Replies: 115
Views: 5779

Re: Paper checks yes or no?

"wire transfer," that may be by far the best method for businesses or other entities that have a direct electronic connection to the wire transfer process. As experienced by me, as a retail bank customer, it is an exquisitely manual process... As a "retail bank customer" at Bank of America, I have ...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paper checks yes or no?
Replies: 115
Views: 5779

Re: Paper checks yes or no?

Sadly, we don't have a robust alternative. I lived for four years in a country where checks didn't exist. I never missed them. The problem is that the US banking system is archaic so we still need to scribble on little pieces of paper and pass them around in some cases. What is laughable is that th...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paper checks yes or no?
Replies: 115
Views: 5779

Re: Paper checks yes or no?

I just realized there's a perfect real-life example sitting on our kitchen table. I didn't think of it because it's not our check. A couple of weeks from now, our granddaughter will be visiting us to go to a music day camp program that's close to our house and far from her parents'. Most of the fees...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paper checks yes or no?
Replies: 115
Views: 5779

Re: Paper checks yes or no?

I need them at least a dozen times a year. I also ran into an interesting issue a couple of years ago when I wanted to send someone a large-for-me amount of money. The thing was that this person travels a lot and is often out of contact. I had three choices obvious possible choices: a) wire transfer...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Vanguard website layout starting Saturday, August 11]
Replies: 106
Views: 6399

Re: [New Vanguard website layout starting Saturday, August 11]

I mostly care about content , and despite all of the grumbling, I really like the content that Vanguard chooses to make available for its own mutual funds. I think it's at least as good as any other firm I know of (although since I spend 100X as much time on Vanguard that might just be knowing how t...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How often do you check your brokerage accounts
Replies: 72
Views: 4323

Re: How often do you check your brokerage accounts

I am probably on Vanguard.com several times a week checking out random stuff connected to forum discussions, but I am often not logged in. The last time I looked at my own account was yesterday, in order to see if it was true that their website design had changed and what it looked like. Naturally I...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Vanguard website layout starting Saturday, August 11]
Replies: 106
Views: 6399

Re: [New Vanguard website layout starting Saturday, August 11]

darkhorse346 wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:37 pm
The view is different depending on how you access you account balances.

My Accounts -> Balances and Holdings = the old view

of

My Accounts -> Holdings (2nd tab of 5 across top) = the alternate view
You're right. Hope "My Accounts -> Balances and Holdings = the old view" stays that way.
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Vanguard website layout starting Saturday, August 11]
Replies: 106
Views: 6399

Re: [New Vanguard website layout starting Saturday, August 11]

This is awful. Everything is now in gigantic 18-point type, and the layout is so huge that on my 1600x900 display--with the window as large as it will go, which is 825 pixels high--it takes eight scrolls to see everything . In other words the layout is designed for a screen that is over 6,400 pixels...
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 5926

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

I don't see the mystery. Here's my hack explanation for what the fund is doing. It would be better if I were twelve. It owns 90% large cap stocks. It has 10% invested in cash. It has 60% notional exposure in a mix of 2, 5, 10, and 30-year Treasury futures contracts. This is the source of the levera...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 5926

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Non-Diversification Risk. The Fund is considered to be non-diversified. Don't know if that's the sector risk showing up another form, or what. Again, that's quite different from "traditional" 60/40 portfolios. Many common funds, maybe even some you own, are classified as "nondiversified". Vanguard ...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 5926

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

the prospectus , if I got it right... I saw that too; I think you've noticed an example of Ctrl-X Ctrl-V Risk . I mean they used another fund's prospectus as the basis for this one. ;) The relevant additional risks over a 60/40 portfolio appear to be "Market Risk", "Derivatives Risk", "Futures Cont...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 5926

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

From the prospectus : Information Technology Sector Risk. The Fund currently invests a significant portion of its assets in the information technology sector, and therefore the Fund’s performance could be negatively impacted by events affecting this sector. Was that obvious from the web page blurb? ...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 5926

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

This is weird. I thought maybe the prospectus would help me. ... Their web page appears to have a bug, inserting a spurious and redundant port access for 443 (secure HTTP) into the middle of the URL. Sloppy! Not to worry; here is the EDGAR link And this one looks like the prospectus , right?
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 5926

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

I seriously don't understand what this fund actually does... but then since I'm not going to invest in it I don't need to. They talk about 1.5x "Accounting leverage" while stating that "This strategy does not borrow to enhance investment returns." Although it says it does not borrow, it also says "...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 5926

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

This is weird. I thought maybe the prospectus would help me. On this page , it says click here to view or download prospectus[/url] When I clicked on that link, this is what I saw. How about you? https://imgur.com/M81lpDt.png Reproduced with both Safari 11.1.2 (13605.3.8) and Firefox 61.0.1 (64-bit)...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 5926

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

I love seeing a five day chart with the customary disclaimer that "results are not indicative of future performance." Five days isn't indicative of future performance? Good to know. I certainly can't quarrel with that. https://imgur.com/50v9IYU.png I seriously don't understand what this fund actuall...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (VUSUX) beta = 3.20?
Replies: 15
Views: 1219

Re: Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (VUSUX) beta = 3.20?

What I didn't realize, though, is how time dependent that correlation actually is. It might not be time dependence. It might be sampling error. Sampling error in correlations is brutal. In legitimate situations where you have reason to believe a priori that you are looking at independent random sam...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (VUSUX) beta = 3.20?
Replies: 15
Views: 1219

Re: Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (VUSUX) beta = 3.20?

Very seriously, I would appreciate your finding where it was that you read that bonds and stocks move in "opposite" directions. People keep saying this and I honestly do not know where they are getting it. You can see it for yourself by putting in the yearly returns for the S&P and for long-term tr...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4209

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

...That's ZERO real growth in almost 20 years. The haystack didn't budge... That's 100% stocks. Yes, that happens. Another example was 1966-1982. The question is: what to do about it? My belief is that if you want the risk premium, you must take the risk. Right now we are getting lots of "why not 1...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Deciphering fake reviews online
Replies: 6
Views: 786

Re: Deciphering fake reviews online

I heard that podcast, too, and I then actually tried out reviewmeta.com on the Amazon reviews for a couple of things I was buying. It reported that they were clean. I plan to use it in the future. I think I can spot fake reviews--and when I read Amazon reader reviews, I mostly ignore 5-star reviews,...
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12645

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

Vineviz, would you consider changing the title of this thread to something like this?
"Age in bonds" is far more conservative than the average target-date-fund glide path.
by nisiprius
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity announced 10-for-1 fund splits in certain mutual funds
Replies: 18
Views: 3699

Re: Fidelity announced 10-for-1 fund splits in certain mutual funds

Ah, news I definitely don't need to worry about. I am sure that the only reason this drew any attention at all is because it is a "split," and stock splits are almost, but not entirely unlike news. Stock splits are not entirely meaningless for two reasons. First, if you hear that a stock "has split ...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (VUSUX) beta = 3.20?
Replies: 15
Views: 1219

Re: Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (VUSUX) beta = 3.20?

ppl say bond and stock market move in the opposite direction (historically) hence bond funds can hedge market risk. What people say this? Because it is not true . Historically, bonds and the stock market have not moved in opposite directions Historically, they have moved independently (near-zero co...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: True Risk-Adjuted Returns
Replies: 17
Views: 1103

Re: True Risk-Adjuted Returns

gmaynardkrebs, the basic problem is that you (and I) are interested in rare, severe events. However, even if we had, somehow, an accurate statistical model of the "true" statistics of a financial asset, the rarer an event is, the more difficult it is to estimate its probability. And thus, the less r...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12645

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

Jeremy Siegel has stated, don't have the reference but he has, that the claimed stability of US stock market returns is a completely pragmatic observation and that there is no theory to explain why it should be true. If Siegel needs an explanation for WHY stocks outperform bonds over the long run, ...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Medicare cards. Get yours?
Replies: 25
Views: 2294

Re: New SS cards. Get yours?

...Points to the feds for making these paper instead of adding millions of plastic cards to the planet... It's interesting: my old Medicare card has always looked like a rather cheesy piece of cardboard, but it has actually held up and stayed legible in my wallet just as well as many plastic cards....
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12645

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

Over the long term stocks will outperform bonds. Why don't we look at what period of time the risk of stocks underperforming bonds becomes negligible and use that to help set asset allocation rather than something that has no mathematical relationship to the problem we are using it to solve. Becaus...
by nisiprius
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12645

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

I think threads like this have their greatest value in illustrating exactly how far into this bull cycle we really are. The point in having bonds is not because they improve returns, rather, the reduced volatility they provide prevent people from making very expensive behavioral mistakes when thing...