Search found 51079 matches

by nisiprius
Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where did Vanguard nest egg calculator go to???
Replies: 7
Views: 1502

Re: Where did Vanguard nest egg calculator go to???

I can't find it, either. If gone, it's a real loss, in my opinion.
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard may remove secure messages, members transitioning out of Vanguard]
Replies: 1337
Views: 128840

Re: [Vanguard may remove secure messages, members transitioning out of Vanguard]

It looks as if, within the last month or two, I have (finally, after that mysterious warning in 2021) actualy lost the ability to send secure text messages through the website. That is, the Secure Message Center no longer has a compose button.

Same for everyone?
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 204
Views: 20149

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

I think Boeing would be acquired way before it went bankrupt. There is also a national interest in Boeing being a functioning company, I very much doubt the United States government would allow Boeing to go into bankruptcy, it would cause more problems than it would solve. In fact during the pandemic the U.S. government was offering Boeing all kinds of aid/financing but they didn't want to take it because they didn't want conditions for accepting the money. Perhaps that was yet another mistake by Boeing executives but it shows there is very little appetite for Boeing going bankrupt. Obviously anything can happen in markets and with individual companies but there are a lot of options between here and bankruptcy for Boeing. It would be a ser...
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 28, 2024 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 204
Views: 20149

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

I'm not betting, but my expectation is that Boeing's airline business will follow the pattern of IBM and GE. The stock won't go to zero, it will continue to earn multibillions in annual revenue, it will gradually become less and less important, and eventually someday its airliner business will get acquired by some other company, become a poorly-known division, and be half forgotten. It could go the way of Eastern Airlines, Pan Am, TWA. Yes, I get it that manufacturing airline r s is different from running air lines . But it is a great mistake to assume that giant household-name firms can't vanish. As always, people who weren't alive during their heyday can't understand how impossible it was to believe in a world without Pan Am. We all saw i...
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cybertruck-anyone else get to try it on?
Replies: 61
Views: 4382

Re: Cybertruck-anyone else get to try it on?

...You’re not supposed to take it through a car wash... Hmmm... Cybertruck Owner's Manual In addition, do not use, and/or immediately remove, chemical, corrosive, or non-pH neutral substances (including but not limited to: acidic liquids or materials, grease, oil, tree resin, dead insects, tar spots, road salt, industrial fallout, etc.) as they can cause corrosion on the vehicle's exterior.... [Directions for spot cleaning follow]. Follow these steps when washing the exterior of Cybertruck: Before washing, flush grime and grit from the vehicle using a hose. Flush away accumulations of mud in areas where debris easily collects (such as wheel wells and panel seams). If salt has been used on the highways (such as during winter months), thorou...
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What would happen if robo advisor went bust?
Replies: 7
Views: 564

Re: What would happen if robo advisor went bust?

P.S. There's no harm in verifying that Betterment really is a member of SIPC. It's inconceivable that such a well-known and well-established firm would lie about that and not have gotten caught in all these years, but it's easy enough to verify.

SPIC - list of members

Image

It's not totally paranoid to do this; Robinhood once lied about a "checking" account being "insured" by SIPC (they are actually a member but the account was not protected by SIPC, as the SIPC chair told the press the next day).

I suppose we should also verify that Betterment is a brokerage, which we can do at FINRA Brokercheck:

Image
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What would happen if robo advisor went bust?
Replies: 7
Views: 564

Re: What would happen if robo advisor went bust?

Thanks for the information all. SIPC is for fraud then. If the company goes bust, my funds are held in custody elsewhere anyway Yes. Notice, too, that banks practice "fractional reserve banking." You deposit $10,000 in the bank, it doesn't go into a Scrooge McDuck money bin, they lend most of it out. At any moment, the bank only is holding a small percentage of the money shown "in" customers' accounts, and they are taking a (highly calculated, heavily regulated) risk that they will not all want it at the same time. Brokerages do not. Not with a normal "cash account" and not if you don't voluntarily sign up for securities lending. The brokerage, in this case the roboadvisor, holds 100% of the assets customers h...
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA
Replies: 211
Views: 17844

Re: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA

...Nisiprius well stated the concerns about the "near miss" in 2008...actually it was worse than a near miss but an actual failure that got bailed out... No, I don't think so. AIG, the holding company , had worse than a near miss but got bailed out. It wasn't their life insurance subsidiaries that were shaky. It was some other part, the part that was issuing "credit default swaps." "AIG Life Insurance Company", as it was then called, was one of the sound assets AIG held . Its financial strength rating briefly dropped to A- but never fell out of the A's, and is currently rated A (A. M. Best), A+ (Fitch), A2 (Moody's), A+ (S&P). It is likely that the reason it dropped to A- was because of a regulators' decis...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA
Replies: 211
Views: 17844

Re: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA

I absolutely would get a SPIA again, because I think they are excellent tools for the case where your portfolio size is in the grey area with respect to your expenses. That is, if the portfolio is 20-30X the annual expenses it must meet, an SPIA is worth considering. Obviously if it's 50X annual expenses you don't need one. An SPIA involves tradeoffs, which can be the subject of a long discussion. If an SPIA, then would I get an inflation-adjusted SPIA if it were still available? Absolutely. I think the loss of this product deprives retirement savers of a very useful tool. You can get SPIA's that incorporated a specified percentage increase every year, e.g. 3% every year, but I think true CPI adjustment is better. Of course, AIG, now discre...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How is BrioDirect by Webster Bank?
Replies: 1
Views: 197

Re: How is BrioDirect by Webster Bank?

The rates seem good but not incredibly exceptional. I haven't used them. I'll address "reliable and stable." Their website says they are "powered by" Webster Bank, N.A., Member FDIC. The FDIC "BankFind" web page confirms this. DepositAccounts gives them an A+ safety rating, I'm not sure that's worth much but it's something: https://imgur.com/R3ddZdq.png $75 billion, 4,000 employees, 196 branches is a decent sized bank. It was established in 1870. It is probably very well known in its home area. Stay within the FDIC limits. Watch out for "deal fadeout" in which initially attractive rates get lower and lower and lower over one or two years. If your situation isn't simple, multiple accounts and different...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 312
Views: 29994

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

...Watson from IBM won Jeopardy back in 2011. Watson was supposed to take over the medical profession. What happened?... ..."Watson" was a series of technologies & algorithms rather than a single thing (for marketing they gave it a name) and some of those have carried forward. IBM made an absolutely dead serious attempt to use Watson for medical purposes, specifically "Watson for Oncology." They began selling it, for money, for that purpose in 2014. They put 7,000 employees on it. They spent $5 billion on acquisitions alone. Gini Rometti called it "our moonshot." It was a failure. Formally terminated and, in effect, "sold off for parts." A reporter named Carey Ross obtained an internal IBM presen...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA
Replies: 211
Views: 17844

Re: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA

Leesbro63 wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:07 pm
nisiprius wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:01 pm ...The number that finally reached someone who could verify that they know about the existence of my annuities was the one that appeared on my 2023 annual "fair market value" letter:

1-800-242-6771.
I'll save this number. Thanks. And I'll leave it to you to continue to get them to claim their own money! :wink:


EDIT: I checked my records and that is the same number that I had from early 2022 when they errored in their own favor and it was in my interest to jump through hoops to contact them.
Yes, I might have simply repeated the phonathon I went through in 2022. Somehow I mis-remembered and thought the right number was the one shown on the 1099-R. I should have searched this thread.
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA
Replies: 211
Views: 17844

Re: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA

I don't think financial errors can safely be ignored. So I called them today, with, of course, no meaningful results. But I do have one piece of information to share. The 800 number on the 1099-R appears to be wrong. The number THEY referred me to appears to be wrong. The number that finally reached someone who could verify that they know about the existence of my annuities was the one that appeared on my 2023 annual "fair market value" letter: 1-800-242-6771. And if nothing else, I think it was worth verifying that I was able to reach my financial institutions and that they acknowledged the existence of my accounts. Frankly, it was alarming to dial the 800 number on my 1099-R form and get told that they had no record of my accou...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why does a discussion of Financial Planning almost always turns into buying Whole life insurance?
Replies: 75
Views: 4030

Re: Why does a discussion of Financial Planning almost always turns into buying Whole life insurance?

I have never never yet read a financial book or article, that was written by someone independent of the insurance industry, that recommended whole life for anything. [Added] OK, except for some very specific and specialized cases, as in "funding a trust for a disabled child" mentioned by TimDex below.
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does backtesting capture all the costs differences between funds ?
Replies: 8
Views: 462

Re: Does backtesting capture all the costs differences between funds ?

BrooklynInvest wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:58 pm If I was forced to invest in an active fund, American would be toward the top of my list. Thankfully that's not the case.
Ditto. But not an American fund with a 1.56% expense ratio.
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does backtesting capture all the costs differences between funds ?
Replies: 8
Views: 462

Re: Does backtesting capture all the costs differences between funds ?

...My question is that when I'm running a backtest, are the results fully capturing all the expenses and costs ? If not, then what are the recommendations to sift out an accurate comparison ?... Yes, all of the standard numbers reported by mutual funds and by sites like Morningstar and PortfolioVisualizer are net of expenses. To put it another way, if you see $10,000 in your fund account end-of-day 12/31/2022, and are reinvesting distributions, and the publications state that the "return" of the fund for 2022 was 26.05%, then on 12/31/2023 the number you see in your account at the end of 12/31/2023 would have been $12,605. This leads to some interesting arguments and debates, but, yes, the numbers are a fair comparison. In your c...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 204
Views: 20149

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

BernardShakey wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:57 am...I think the company has made significant changes and improvements since 2019 and the MAX crashes...
I thought so too, until the door plug came off. And that is legitimately a 737 MAX 9 issue, because that is the only plane that has them or needs them, and only to serve the needs of some airlines that want to cram extra passengers in. I suppose you can say that the 2019 crashes were avionics design issues and the door panel is an assembly issue, so not closely related.
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA
Replies: 211
Views: 17844

Re: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA

I don't think financial errors can safely be ignored. So I called them today, with, of course, no meaningful results. But I do have one piece of information to share. The 800 number on the 1099-R appears to be wrong. The number THEY referred me to appears to be wrong. The number that finally reached someone who could verify that they know about the existence of my annuities was the one that appeared on my 2023 annual "fair market value" letter: 1-800-242-6771. And if nothing else, I think it was worth verifying that I was able to reach my financial institutions and that they acknowledged the existence of my accounts. Frankly, it was alarming to dial the 800 number on my 1099-R form and get told that they had no record of my accoun...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller and Ken French data
Replies: 8
Views: 796

Re: Robert Shiller and Ken French data

Neither website is intended for that purpose. It's not a question of user-friendliness, that's not the job they are trying to do. Robert Shiller's website presents information for the stock market as a whole, and some related numbers for Treasury securities, and information about the CAPE (Cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio). Shiller is not a risk factor theorist and does not present information on factors. Shiller researches housing prices so his website also has information on the Case-Shiller housing price index, I think. Some investors think that the CAPE ratio is relevant to trying to judge valuations, others do not, and other things it once was but isn't any more now that everybody knows about it. The Ken French website has data...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate
Replies: 44
Views: 3278

Re: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate

protagonist wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 7:50 am I would rather see the authors claim +/- 2% variance across the board. At least the "phoniness" would be more transparent.
For better or worse, they ran simulations. Their reported means are a report of the results of those simulations. So are their reported box-and-whiskers plots of the result of those simulations. No, they should not be report the mean of the results from their model and under-reporting the dispersion of the results from their model.
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA
Replies: 211
Views: 17844

Re: Change in name of payer

...For fifteen years, the payer has always been AMERICAN GENERAL AMER GEN L G7VG3000#### where "VG3000####" is the annuity account number. Now it is Bank of NY Mello EDI PAYMTS GLTMP-XXXXX#### where the #### is NOT the account number or any part of it... "EDI" is "electronic data interchange" which is a series of standards for exchanging data. It's possible they outsourced the mechanics of getting payments to annuitants. Doubtless. But a word of explanation to policyholders might have been nice. Especially when the payments are erroneous, even if the error is in my favor. I guess I'll dig out the 1099-R's and see what phone number is on it and see what happens if I phone it. And my life experience has been tha...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 650
Views: 46469

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:08 am ...You’re also doubling down on the same type of risk, rather than diversifying your sources of risk.

While sharpe ratios differ over various periods, most factor investors would argue that improved risk reduction isn’t an expectation...
Wait. What is the expected benefit of "diversifying your sources of risk" if not "improved risk reduction?"
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA
Replies: 211
Views: 17844

Re: CPI-U adjustment too small on AIG SPIA

Third payment of the year. Overpayment has still not been corrected. Boo.

It's starting to get to the point where I ought to contact them, because the annoyance of trying to do that may be less than the annoyance of letting it run on uncorrected.

We need a general discussion of "institutional continuity risk!"
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon "eligible for return" cost
Replies: 30
Views: 1999

Re: Amazon "eligible for return" cost

...All household and clothing items bought online now are from TJ Maxx, where returns are via local store, no charge, no hassle, large selection of quality goods... Only one T. J. Maxx data point so far--but not good. I bought a frying pan. The package arrived. Inside was a blanket. The return process was easy enough, but: Dropped off at Fedex pickup point 3/13 Fedex reports delivery 3/18 tjmaxx.com does not acknowledge receipt until 3/26 email acknowledging receipt says "You should receive [the refund] within 4-5 business days." Assuming I get it as promised, when I get it I will be... satisfied enough. Roughly three weeks. But that is so not Amazon. The email, of course, says that the returned item was a frying pan, so I hope t...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 27, 2024 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A big chunk of TIAA Traditional - take TPA or leave for annuity?
Replies: 6
Views: 674

Re: A big chunk of TIAA Traditional - take TPA or leave for annuity?

I used the 10-year option a long time ago, in a specific way. We had bought long-term-care insurance. My greatest fear about long-term-care insurance was finding out that the payments were too high in retirement and letting it lapse just when needed. The policy offered a ten-year-paid-in-full option, and I chose it. I also set up the TPA so that it would pay out about the amount needed for the annual premium, and pay it out a couple of months before the payment was due. So I had reasonable assurance that there would always be enough money in an account, ready to pay the premium.

In other words, I matched the ten-year payouts to a known ten-year annual liability.
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on SPDR® MSCI USA StrategicFactors℠ ETF (QUS)?
Replies: 11
Views: 910

Re: Thoughts on SPDR® MSCI USA StrategicFactors℠ ETF (QUS)?

It's not very different in composition from VOO (the Vanguard [S&P] 500 Index ETF):

Image

Its performance hasn't been very different from VOO.

Image
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 204
Views: 20149

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

"At some point it has to be a bargain" suddenly reminded me of Lewis' Carroll's riddle? parable? joke? about the two clocks. The first part is the well-known argument that a stopped clock is better than a clock that loses a minute a day, because the stopped clock is right twice a day while the losing clock is only right once in two years. But he carries it on: Ah, but," you say, "what's the use of its being right twice a day, if I ca'n't tell when the time comes?" Why, suppose the clock points to eight o'clock, don't you see that the clock is right at eight o'clock? Consequently, when eight o'clock comes round your clock is right. "Yes, I see that," you reply. Very good, then you've contradicted yourself t...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many credit cards do you have
Replies: 111
Views: 4907

Re: How many credit cards do you have

I have one, with my name and my spouse's on it.

My spouse has one, in my spouse's own name.
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 650
Views: 46469

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

Logan Roy wrote: Mon Mar 25, 2024 4:42 pm Image
If that's your own plot, could you please redo it

a) WITHOUT suppressed zeroes on the axes,

b) WITH the risk free rate and a few lines-of-constant-Sharpe-ratio included?

Without those, we have no way to judge whether or not they are actually doing any better than 70/30, after allowing for risk.

If you can tell me exactly what ten-year period that is, I can do it.

Note that "risk/return" is a meaningless number. We want "risk/excess return above the risk-free rate." If you can get 2% without taking any risk, then the first 2% of return shouldn't "count."

Also, please, what does the size of the circle indicate?
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: LTC + Universal insurance in one product
Replies: 22
Views: 1078

Re: LTC + Universal insurance in one product

BruDude wrote: Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:09 am ...The death benefit should be thought of as a secondary feature...
Then why combine them with life insurance at all? Why not offer them as standalone LTCi with all the good features you claim they have, but without that "secondary" feature?
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: QQQ Question
Replies: 49
Views: 2865

Re: QQQ Question

QQQ in 2000 dropped 81% and it took 14 years 7 months for it to recover to its original peak. That's the other side of the coin. In 2000, everyone thought the internet was the future. They were right, it just didn't immediately translate to the expectation that was baked into the prices. That was a one off event. Well, see, that's the whole thing. That's practically the definition of a "black swan." "Black swans" are events that can't be predicted or averaged or measured because they are too rare, idiosyncratic, and unbelievable. A "black swan" has never happened before. So even after it happens, there is no way to estimate how long until it happens again. And yet collectively they are common. Black swans are ...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do Russian stock holders in the west have any chance of recovery?
Replies: 11
Views: 1796

Re: Do Russian stock holders in the west have any chance of recovery?

This thread makes me wonder what other funds holding Russian assets have done, such as emerging markets funds and total world funds. What has generally been the treatment by these other funds? Is it different from what's happening with ERUS? Interesting question. March 3rd, 2022: Vanguard will not restrict is active managers' decisions on Russia Top mutual fund manager Vanguard Group said on Friday it will adhere to international sanctions being imposed on Russia in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, but will not restrict the investment decisions of managers of its actively-managed funds. In a note on its website on Friday addressing investments in Russia, Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis said that managers of its active...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: LTC + Universal insurance in one product
Replies: 22
Views: 1078

Re: LTC + Universal insurance in one product

These products make no logical sense. These long-term-care riders are not really long-term-care insurance because they do not add new coverage . They simply give you the right to divert existing coverage to a different purpose. They let you raid the death benefit to pay for long-term care. Keep your eye on the ball. That's the death benefit. The purpose of life insurance is to provide a death benefit. Don't let the insurance company distract you with sparkly little side goodies. Well, do you need the death benefit or not? If you don't need it, you don't need life insurance and shouldn't buy it at all. If you do need it, you need it. If someone spends their final years in a long-term-care facility, why would their surviving family will need ...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 204
Views: 20149

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

Source
Three senior Boeing executives including its CEO are stepping down, the company said Monday, as the company continues to deal with an ongoing scandal and federal investigation into the safety of its passenger jets.

CEO Dave Calhoun confirmed he was leaving the company by the end of the year in a statement. Stan Deal, the CEO and president of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, has retired effective immediately. Larry Kellner, chair of the company's board of directors, will not stand for re-election at the next shareholders' annual meeting.
A day may come when Boeing stock becomes a bargain, but it is not this day.
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those complimentary dinners for retirees by investment advisors
Replies: 144
Views: 10595

Re: Those complimentary dinners for retirees by investment advisors

There ain't a horse that cain't be rode and there ain't a rider that cain't be throwed.

A friend of ours said that she made a hobby of going to time-share presentations just for the free dinners. She said "when they come around to talk to me, I just say 'I'm only here for the free dinner' and they leave me alone." Some years later it transpired that she eventually had bought a time-share at one of those dinners, almost never had used it, and was trying, unsuccessfully, to sell it.

Don't do it. Keep doing it and sooner or later you'll encounter the salesperson good enough (or well enough attuned to your psychology) to succeed in selling you something.
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying OTC Stocks With VBS
Replies: 26
Views: 1220

Re: Buying OTC Stocks With VBS

The way I see it, if it's traded on the OTC or even if it is a "penny stock", if an investor does his homework and finds that a company has investment potential, he or she should be allowed to purchase shares in said company. Companies don't serve everyone's needs all of the time. I can't buy rabbit meat at the largest grocery store in NH. Certainly, that's a legitimate food. It's just not one that makes sense for their target audience. I fear my only option is to move my brokerage account to a different service provider but at my age (I'm past 70 now) I'm very reluctant to do that either. I guess I'm just screwed, that's all. That's awfully black and white thinking. You could open a brokerage account at Schwab and move in enough...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying OTC Stocks With VBS
Replies: 26
Views: 1220

Re: Buying OTC Stocks With VBS

1) The change was discussed in the forum in 2022 here . The first paragraph of Vanguard's letter to people affected by it said This change allows us to better support a targeted, enduring suite of products and services rooted in Vanguard's time-tested investment philosophy and built to help secure the long-term success of investors. That's probably all you will be able to find out from them. Vanguard's mission statement is "to take a stand for all investors, to treat them fairly, and to give them the best chance for investment success." That, together with their language in the letter, leads me to infer that they don't think trading in OTC stocks "helps secure the long-term success of investors." Of course, you are free ...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying OTC Stocks With VBS
Replies: 26
Views: 1220

Re: Buying OTC Stocks With VBS

Tim Buckley, Chairman & CEO
The Vanguard Group
100 Vanguard Blvd
Malvern, PA 19355
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate
Replies: 44
Views: 3278

Re: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate

Hah! I like this post I ran across semiaccidentally, while searching for GMO discussions. Jeremy Grantham and James Montier (of GMO) are forecasters worth listening to.... GMO has proven able to tactically allocate according to their views. e.g. GMO Benchmark Free Allocation fund vs. Lifestrategy Moderate: http://i61.tinypic.com/11t7rte.jpg That image succumbed to digital fragility, but the post was made in September 2014 and would have looked like this: https://imgur.com/4hjVefO.png And here's what has happened since then: https://imgur.com/UlnPhi0.png To be fair, since inception overall GMO is still slightly ahead, but I'm going to call it a tie. Certainly in 2014 you could have looked at those charts and said "wow! GMO really does h...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate
Replies: 44
Views: 3278

Re: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate

Vanguard put out a paper at the end of 2023 forecasting that ex-US/Emerging is likely to out-perform US over the next decade due to interest rate headwinds. But does that paper show the range of returns that were found in their simulations? For a number of years, they had a chart and a table showing the actual range found in the simulation. Of late (2024 outlook) they have stopped and and are just showing phony ranges in which they always show mean ±2% for all stock categories and mean ±1% for all bond categories. Let me repeat that again: they are phony. Vanguard has never given any rationale for them. For years they've shown the real ranges in the full report, but the ±2%-for-stocks, ±1%-for-bonds in the summaries. And I think the reason...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 650
Views: 46469

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

So when you have a microscopic tilt, the fund you choose does not meaningfully change your outcome. So why do it at all? My example involved devoting 20% of stocks to small-cap value. That's not a "microscopic tilt." It's higher than the tilts suggested by Paul Merriman in the "Ultimate Buy-and-Hold" portfolio, or the tilts suggested in Larry Swedroe's model portfolios in The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need . I agree that the effects are microscopic. I'll rephrase. What is the point of devoting a relatively small part of your total portfolio to a fund that is highly correlated to the total market? What do the relatively smaller tilts that you reference accomplish? I don't know. I am using th...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 650
Views: 46469

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

Larry Swedroe's portfolio increases bonds but uses 100% SCV for Equities. It's not clear what the composition of the "Larry Portfolio" really was, whether he personally really held it, how long he held it, or what he holds now. In 2011, Ron Lieber of The New York Times wrote an article, Taking a Chance on the Larry Portfolio , which implied that it was simply 32% DFA US Small-Cap Value Portfolio and 68% one-year Treasury bills. But as far as I know Larry Swedroe never said this, and didn't spell it out with tickers and percentages in Reducing the Risk of Black Swans . The NYT article appeared in 2011, and as early as 2016 Larry Swedroe had added an allocation in equal parts, QSPRX, LENDX, AVRPX, and SRRIX (AQR Style Premium Alter...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10% cash position excessive?
Replies: 27
Views: 2695

Re: 10% cash position excessive?

SNAXX = Money Market Funds - Schwab Money Fund VTI = Vanguard Total Stock Market (stock fund) XLK = Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (stock fund) QQQM = Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (stock fund) SCHG = Schwab US Large-Cap Growth ETF If that is your whole portfolio, it is 90% stocks, 10% low-risk. Traditionally the low-risk holding would be bonds, but cashlike holdings could perform the same function (but with lower return). Only you know what your risk tolerance really is, but at 62 - 15 = 47 of age, 90% stocks is considered "aggressive." If cash is your only low-risk asset, then anything less than 10% would put you higher than the most aggressive target-date funds. https://www.bogleheads.org/w/images/e/ee/Morningstarglidepaths.png &q...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10% cash position excessive?
Replies: 27
Views: 2695

Re: 10% cash position excessive?

SNAXX = Money Market Funds - Schwab Money Fund VTI = Vanguard Total Stock Market (stock fund) XLK = Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (stock fund) QQQM = Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (stock fund) SCHG = Schwab US Large-Cap Growth ETF If that is your whole portfolio, it is 90% stocks, 10% low-risk. Traditionally the low-risk holding would be bonds, but cashlike holdings could perform the same function (but with lower return). Only you know what your risk tolerance really is, but at 62 - 15 = 47 of age, 90% stocks is considered "aggressive." If cash is your only low-risk asset, then anything less than 10% would put you higher than the most aggressive target-date funds. https://www.bogleheads.org/w/images/e/ee/Morningstarglidepaths.png &q...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do Russian stock holders in the west have any chance of recovery?
Replies: 11
Views: 1796

Re: Do Russian stock holders in the west have any chance of recovery?

It seems to me that it doesn't matter whether Russian stockholders in the west have any chance of recovery. The question is whether ERUS 's shareholders have a chance of recovery. I don't see wiggle room in their statement: As previously announced, the iShares MSCI Russia ETF is in the process of liquidation. An initial liquidation distribution was sent to shareholders on Aug 17, 2022 and a subsequent liquidation distribution was sent to shareholders on December 27, 2023. On December 14, 2023, the Board of Directors of iShares, Inc. unanimously voted to continue to have ERUS managed pursuant to the plan of liquidation through December 31, 2024 (absent significant market developments). BlackRock Fund Advisors (BFA) has implemented a waiver o...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 650
Views: 46469

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

folkher0 wrote: Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:21 pm So when you have a microscopic tilt, the fund you choose does not meaningfully change your outcome. So why do it at all?
My example involved devoting 20% of stocks to small-cap value. That's not a "microscopic tilt." It's higher than the tilts suggested by Paul Merriman in the "Ultimate Buy-and-Hold" portfolio, or the tilts suggested in Larry Swedroe's model portfolios in The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need. I agree that the effects are microscopic.

If you'll recommend a percentage allocation of stocks to small-cap value I'll gladly rerun the same backtest with whatever percentage you suggest.
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fiduciary advisors vs not - how important do you think it is
Replies: 33
Views: 2275

Re: Fiduciary advisors vs not - how important do you think it is

P.S. Fisher's talk about "we do better when our clients do better" is misleading. Even if true, their motives are not as aligned with their client's as implied, because... They do not lose money when their clients lose money. That means they in fact are incentivized to put clients into the riskiest investments they can, without getting in trouble. If a client has a $1 million portfolio, and the AUM fee is 1% (Fisher's seems to be more), then, back of the envelope: Lower-risk portfolio: 50/50 chance of +15% or -5%. Client makes $150,000, reaches $1,150,000, advisor makes $11,500. Client loses $50,000, falls to $950,000, advisor makes $9,500. Advisor's expectation is $10,500. Higher-risk portfolio: 50/50 chance of +30% or -10%. Clie...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fiduciary advisors vs not - how important do you think it is
Replies: 33
Views: 2275

Re: Fiduciary advisors vs not - how important do you think it is

I made a half-hearted attempt to answer this question once. Or rather, to answer a more specific question. The form I asked it in was "Are Vanguard advisors fiduciaries?" What I think I learned is that the firm may be a fiduciary but that doesn't mean the particular human being you are talking to is. And that the same human being may or may not be a fiduciary depending on what hat they are wearing (whether they are selling you a mutual fund or insurance).

I gave up. I don't know how to tell if an advisor is a fiduciary and I don't know what it means in real life.
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there recent data on DFA-type funds vs low-cost index funds?
Replies: 8
Views: 972

Re: Is there recent data on DFA-type funds vs low-cost index funds?

The eternal problem is that "DFA-type funds" seem to do a good job of what they are supposed to do, i.e. capture the value factor, but there is endless debate on how valuable or important it is to capture that factor. I am willing to believe that "DFA-type funds" successfully trade off strict passivity in exchange for capturing factors with lower transaction costs and deeper exposure than index funds do. The question is a) the value of the result, and b) in a whole portfolio where the specific holding of small-cap value is only a small part of the portfolio, is it really much better to get the desired factor exposure in the form of a smaller holding of a "more value-y" fund versus a slightly larger holding of a...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 24, 2024 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there recent data on DFA-type funds vs low-cost index funds?
Replies: 8
Views: 972

Re: Is there recent data on DFA-type funds vs low-cost index funds?

Although it is reasonable to say that the S&P 500 is not perfectly passive--it is not, as people sometimes thing, the 500 largest-cap stocks--it is also stretching things to call it actively managed. It's well to remember the S&P 500's origins. I believe it's reasonably faithful to its original intentions. It was intended to be a total market index--but one that could be calculated hourly using the most computing power available in 1957. That is the reason for the limit of 500. As for the selection principle, prior to the (alleged) discovery of the "size effect" in 1981, capitalization was not considered to be a natural or important characteristic of a stock. So they needed to select 500 somehow, and what they decided was ...