Search found 33646 matches

by nisiprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 18
Views: 1539

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

To state what should be obvious: indexing the total market at cap-weight is different from every other strategy because it is the only one that does not encounter obvious problems if almost everybody does it. For example, if almost everybody wanted 30% of their holdings to be small-cap value, you wo...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TLH: Would you treat these 4 international funds as virtually interchangeable
Replies: 5
Views: 322

Re: TLH:ould you treat these 4 international funds as virtually interchangeable

I think that for tax-loss harvesting, the appropriate question is, "if A is my preferred choice, and B, C, and D are my substitutes... during the length of time I plan to hold B, C, or D, how much difference is there likely to be between holding them and holding A?" Notice, by the way, that it's qui...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESPP - Would you participate and what's your strategy
Replies: 20
Views: 1094

Re: ESPP - Would you participate and what's your strategy

When I was in that situation, I feared that my supervisor might know whether or not I was participating and consider it an indicator of my motivation and enthusiasm. So, just as I contributed to the United Way, I participated in the ESPP to the minimum extent possible: $5 a month. I didn't attempt t...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Virtual Mailbox / Mail Scan Service
Replies: 12
Views: 877

Re: Virtual Mailbox / Mail Scan Service

NOT CALIFORNA... but I have used a Florida firm, St. Brendan's Isle Mail Services, https://www.sbimailservice.com , to receive my mail when we were on a long road trip, and they've been just fine. I've used their Mail Scan Pro add-on; you view an image of the envelope on their website, and then you ...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Putting a stop payment on credit card for broken TV
Replies: 11
Views: 627

Re: Putting a stop payment on credit card for broken TV

P.S. You can't "put a stop payment" on a credit card. You "stop payment" on a check. With a credit card, as I think you know now, you "file a dispute" with the credit card number, and usually the card company gives you a "chargeback," pending "investigation." With my credit card, I can look at the a...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Putting a stop payment on credit card for broken TV
Replies: 11
Views: 627

Re: Putting a stop payment on credit card for broken TV

So I called up the company and they said I can cancel and they will return the money when they pick up the TV and they will not charge me the shipping fee either so zero loss to me. In case I don't get the money back even after returning the shipment I can file a credit card dispute and get the mon...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Putting a stop payment on credit card for broken TV
Replies: 11
Views: 627

Re: Putting a stop payment on credit card for broken TV

Did they give you a tracking number for the shipment for the replacement TV? That's an important detail. Do they expect you to return the defective TV to them? Did they give you an "RMA number" to use and an address to send it to? The problem in a situation like this is that a vendor will keep strin...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not own every stock sector & rebalance?
Replies: 29
Views: 2855

Re: Why not own every stock sector & rebalance?

A side note. I don't know what Roger Gibson says in his book about a "rebalancing dividend." This is a frequently debated topic here in the forum. I am just going to state the two sides of the debate. I won't go into depth. I believe #2 below. 1) Some people seem to believe that rebalancing can actu...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 2596

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

...International isn't about avoiding stock downturns, it's about avoiding being on the wrong end of a dispersion spectrum... I'm not sure I understand it well, but my interpretation of Ditchwitch's original post is that avoiding stock downturns is one of the things he wants. If you agree with me t...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data
Replies: 29
Views: 2649

Re: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data

...I understand that. But my question is if bitcoin is an implementation of blockchain, but you can create as many implementations of the block chain as you want, why would bitcoin have value... That's in fact a problem, and it's why you have Bitcoin, Litecoin, Swiftcoin, Namecoin, Peercoin, Dogeco...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data
Replies: 29
Views: 2649

Re: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data

1) That's very interesting. I think. 2) I have no idea what it means. Can anyone explain to me why it is difficult to "move index data" in some other way... for example, simply posting a number on a website in an easily-machine-readable form? What's being shared here? What information is moving from...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 2596

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

...When I did this analysis, I saw that OAKIX is a mutual fund that's not too correlated with the S&P and gives good returns. There are other funds too. Basically what you're getting here is slight mitigation of any US equity collapse, but only a slight mitigation... Since you said S&P 500, let's c...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does any indicator not predict a 2000/2007'ish crash?
Replies: 47
Views: 2312

Re: Does any indicator not predict a 2000/2007'ish crash?

I have no idea whether there will be a 2000 or 2007-ish crash. I do think people are overlooking the fact that whereas the 1995-2000 bull market was riding on top of a growing stock market--it was a speed-up of a stock market that was already growing--the 2009-2017 bull market started out deep in a ...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Brokerage account vs. "old style" ?
Replies: 2
Views: 399

Re: Vanguard: Brokerage account vs. "old style" ?

No. Mutual funds, that is the actual funds, are not insured by SIPC any more than individual stocks are. Mutual funds have whatever intrinsic risks they have. Due to the protections of the Investment Company Act of 1940 I think they have great deal of protection against fraud or neglect in handling ...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 2596

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

...Isn't the idea, that if foreign markets move quite differently than the US it does have an impact on how much or even in which direction the overall needle moves?... "Quite differently?" I'd ask, "well, what happened the last time the market crashed?" Blue, United States. Orange, developed marke...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roger Ibbotson and ZebraEdge Annuity
Replies: 5
Views: 669

Re: Roger Ibbotson and ZebraEdge Annuity

Are there any professors of finance that remain independent of commercial interests and don't try to monetize their reputation through association with companies that sell financial products?
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home
Replies: 15
Views: 3834

Re: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home

Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:24 am
...You forgot that your car takes over from you when you are braking or if manoeuvring violently...
Indeed. And it is an interesting question how my car prioritizes protecting my life versus protecting the lives of others.
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 2596

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

My opinion is that the "case" against international stocks boils down to nothing more than "why?" and that the "case" for them boils down to nothing more than "why not?" Stocks are stocks. I see no reason to think international stocks are hugely different from U.S. stocks. There has been internation...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home
Replies: 15
Views: 3834

Re: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home

We are further down the road toward bad 1950s SF about robot domination than I expected to see in my lifetime. It's not obvious because so many of the things that are happening are "merely" strong nudges, not total compulsion, and because the weird artificial not-quite-intelligence of Google, Siri, ...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So bought Litecoin@ $150...
Replies: 14
Views: 2582

Re: So bought Litecoin@ $150...

What the heck. So put in 1K for fun.. I don't know what is going to happen but it hit 270 today and seems to be goin crazy.. Well the most I will lose is 1k. This is only true if you have a rule that if you lose the 1K you will give up on cryptocurrency and never try it again--and you actually stic...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 21
Views: 1274

Re: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?

The takeaway is to take opportunities when they appear and to buy ETFs when there is a flash crash. :twisted: So I think the chart posted by nisiprius is a very strong reason to use ETFs. Is there a known example of someone actually managing to buy VTI, or indeed any heavily affected ETF, during th...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 21
Views: 1274

Re: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?

Fidelity sells many ETFs for zero commission, about anything anyone could want. You can buy or sell the shares for free (as long as you are not doing frequent short term trades in and out of the same ETF). Schwab also does the same. No-commission trades (within various over-trading limits) are now ...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 21
Views: 1274

Re: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?

Hello, I was looking at the brokerage fees at Vanguard and it looks like you can get Vanguard ETFs without any commission. That sounds too good to be true. Why would anyone use investor class mutual funds when they can get the ETF with a lower expense ratio and no transaction fee? In addition, ETFs...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any of you trade just a little as a hobby?
Replies: 50
Views: 3971

Re: Any of you trade just a little as a hobby?

I've bought individual stocks about fifteen times in my life, from ages twenty to sixty. I would not call it "trading" and I would not call it a hobby. I would call it small mistakes and learning experiences. I'm slightly in the black over my lifetime. The last time I bought an individual stock was ...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to invest in a bull market
Replies: 17
Views: 2016

Re: When to invest in a bull market

Hello - I'd like to invest $100,000 in the S&P 500 Index mutual fund... My investment horizon is approximately 7 years ... Take some time to cruise through Vanguard's web pages describing the Vanguard 500 Index fund. Come back with questions about what you read. Among other things you will see this...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2387

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

bool UndoWriteToDisk(const CBlockUndo& blockundo, CDiskBlockPos& pos, const uint256& hashBlock, const CMessageHeader::MessageStartChars& messageStart) { // Retrieve secret encrypted crash date from storage CAutoFile fileout(OpenUndoFile(pos), SER_DISK, CLIENT_VERSION); if (fileout.IsNull()) return ...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI-Is this truly the total us stock market?
Replies: 6
Views: 1088

Re: VTI-Is this truly the total us stock market?

Yes and no. Yes, it is very darned close to any reasonable definition of the total U.S. stock market. Does it match what is recommended for U.S. stocks in "lazy portfolios" is trickier. It is one of the recommendations to represent U.S. stocks in a three-fund portfolio . In my personal opinion, the ...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin
Replies: 64
Views: 3841

Re: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin

Lightning Network is a technology which allows instant micropayments anywhere in the world... Lightning Network is not a technology yet. It is a controversial proposal that hasn't been completed, much less implemented. It was said in the past that bitcoin would allow instant micropayments anywhere ...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1400

Re: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?

My understanding is that the fund companies that do indexing are very much aware of the front running that traders do to index funds and that they have themselves adopted patient trading strategies. Is there a Vanguard expert out there who can verify this? In point of fact the construction of index...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1400

Re: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?

DFA funds are, in fact, low cost by most standards. (Morningstar's, for example, although I think Morningstar is pretty lenient about giving funds a fee level of "low.")
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1400

Re: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?

(Oops... Taylor beat me to it) Look, folks, for an index fund we don't actually need to know what the costs are , because we can just compare the fund's actual results to the index. https://s8.postimg.org/mxqzk1r0l/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-12-10_a_la_s_4.49.23_PM.png For 2012, 13, 14, 15, 16, and 20...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1400

Re: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?

As a small-cap and value-tilted shop, I would expect DFA to kick performance butt with their DFSVX small-cap value fund. Sure, it is not exactly the asset allocation of something like the Vanguard small-cap value fund, but 5.8% for DFA versus 10.9% for Vanguard means that whatever DFA is doing to p...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]
Replies: 33
Views: 6124

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]

In Jack Bogle's "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing", Jack recommends that for the investors who are so inclined to trade in individual stocks, to create a "funny money" account and allocate no more than 5% of your investment portfolio for these purposes. This will serve two purposes: 1) sat...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2387

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

... Companies Accepting Bitcoin ... https://s8.postimg.org/xx2jklbdx/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-12-10_a_la_s_1.47.46_PM.png I thought I would do a reality check on the idea that Paypal "accepts BItcoins." After all, Subway and many places do accept PayPal. Can I load bitcoin into my PayPal account an...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2387

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

You can purchase anything from computer services, to pizza, real estate, a Tesla car, a Subway sandwich, airline tickets, women’s lingerie, or even manicures with Bitcoin. Amazon.com offers a 5% discount for any purchase made with Bitcoin.[/i] No bitcoin fan has yet chosen to comment on my attempt ...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2387

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

I think bubbles and crashes are like building Jenga towers, or watching dirt being piled onto a huge mound, or snow piling up to the point of avalanche. Once it gets to the point where tiny things have the possibility of snowballing, the tiny thing that starts the avalanche could occur anywhere or a...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?
Replies: 51
Views: 3817

Re: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?

Keep in mind that inflation probably will not erode the purchasing power if you choose good, competitive bank CDs. The argument that "cash" is a foolish investment because its purchasing power will be cut in half in 72/X years (where X is the inflation rate) is true if "cash" means physical, paper c...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 3052

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

...Investors did get their inflation adjustment, though it took until sometime in the mid-1980's before they got it. So yes, stocks do hedge inflation but with a very important qualification, you might have to wait awhile to get your inflation adjustment. In the case of 1970's stagflation, it took ...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 3052

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

...I also want to make the point that even though stocks are perceived as an inflation hedge, inflation spikes can be devastating to stocks in the shorter term. Stagflation was very hard on stocks and even worse for bonds... Indeed. On this point we can be categorical. There is no close time connec...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dash Into Cash in the WSJ
Replies: 16
Views: 3934

Re: Dash Into Cash in the WSJ

I used a rewards checking account for about three years--don't remember just which years but in the time I used it, the interest rate dropped from 3.49% to 1.49%, while the maximum amount on which that interest rate could be earned dropped from $50,000 (just before I opened the account) to $20,000 t...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Password Protection
Replies: 83
Views: 6254

Re: Password Protection

Carolina Shagger wrote:
Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:19 pm
...I admit I am leery of the cloud (isn't that just someone else's computer?)...
Yes.
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 3052

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

I agree Nisi. My guess is 29-38 is the worst "decade". Also, if this was done on a real basis, my guess is that the 70-79 period wins. Can check this in DFA matrix book https://www.ifa.com/pdf/matrix%20book%202017.pdf Worst 10-year period for US large cap stocks of any 10-year period from 1926 to 2...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How bonds would have been better in 2008 crash
Replies: 5
Views: 659

Re: How bonds would have been better in 2008 crash

Bonds are not all that different from cash. I think a good way to think about bonds in a portfolio, if you're not too familiar with bonds, is to think of them, as a first approximation, as being like cash. In fact, some people in this forum have argued that good, competitive bank CDs are at least as...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 53
Views: 4113

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

The Subway in Allentown, PA still isn't answering its phone, but just as a reality check, I proceeded up to the "payment" page on their website and bitcoin is not shown as a payment option. It has now been over four years since the first news items about it accepting Bitcoin appeared. So, either the...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 3052

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

That's just an artifact of the coincidence of the crash happening to occur in a year ending in 9. According to a list of the "Largest Declines in U.S. Stock Market History," from 1871-present there were 1. There were, respectively, 4, 1, 2, 2, 1, 0, 0, 2, 4, 1 crashes whose bottom was in years endin...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]
Replies: 33
Views: 6124

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]

...But that didn't dissuade me from thinking I could intelligently pick something like Amazon based on what I see first hand with my own purchasing habits (a massive increase in the everyday consumer moving to online shopping)... That's just what Peter Lynch seemed to be advocating. He invested in ...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 6099

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

There was a draft paper a few years ago, mentioned on the forum, but forum and Google search and my memory are all too weak to retrieve it. I don't know if the paper was ever published or if other work supports it. It could be important. The gist was that the writers were convinced they had found a ...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond vs Bond Fund? why funds?
Replies: 25
Views: 1633

Re: Bond vs Bond Fund? why funds?

I just inherited some individual bonds and it took the Vanguard bond desk AND the Vanguard SENIOR bond desk to sell them. I tried to sell one holding (as an experiment) using the Vanguard web page but I got a message that there were no outstanding bids to buy the bonds I wanted to sell so I needed ...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds ever better than a Fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1117

Re: Are Bonds ever better than a Fund?

I think the answer is that it depends on your situation. There isn't a blanket answer. An individual bond is a contract to pay specific numbers of dollars on specific dates. The bond issuer may or may not keep that contract. If the bond is rated "investment grade" (BBB or higher), then for most plan...