Search found 37533 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does investing in US stocks mean investing in US Dollar?
Replies: 19
Views: 1345

Re: Does investing in US stocks mean investing in US Dollar?

I've been looking into what alex_686 has said, in my own way. Although the differences I showed are as stated, and are quite parallel in time with differences in the strength of the dollar, I think alex_686 is right in saying that dollar value fluctuations aren't close enough to being enough to expl...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the risk of loss greater in a concentrated portfolio?
Replies: 13
Views: 659

Re: Why is the risk of loss greater in a concentrated portfolio?

Can someone explain why or point me in the right direction please? This is in the context of someone who maintains that he carefully selects his stocks and claims to know what he is doing! There is no such thing as risk to the person with a working crystal ball. If Annie Edson Taylor, the person wh...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of trading fees imposed on all stocks and bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 601

Re: Effect of trading fees imposed on all stocks and bonds

I take it people don't remember the bad old days before fixed commissions were abolished in 1975. Hint: it was very exciting when "discount brokerages" began charging "only" $29.95 for a trade.
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: I am rejecting from reading a post
Replies: 11
Views: 2075

Re: I am rejecting from reading a post

Apologies for not making this plain before, still learning the board software. The topic in question has been removed for moderator review. international001: if you happened to be reading the topic when it was moved, and clicked on one of the page selection buttons, you'll see this sort of message....
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?
Replies: 66
Views: 5459

Re: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?

I don't own the book, and I have never read this chapter since I don't have either the interest or the ability to invest in private equity, but it seems like something to look at before dabbling in private equity, in any form. "Flawed," by the way, isn't very negative, since the title of the book is...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:16 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: I am rejecting from reading a post
Replies: 11
Views: 2075

Re: I am rejecting from reading a post

To avoid this kind of confusion for newer forum participants, it would be nice if the message would say something like “This forum has been removed by a moderator” or something g like that. “You are not authorized” makes it sound like you are trying to do something nefarious by getting into somethi...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:11 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: I am rejecting from reading a post
Replies: 11
Views: 2075

Re: I am rejecting from reading a post

IMHO they really ought to change that warning message, although the admins are very reluctant to make any "custom" modifications to the forum software, phpBB. It's not anything about you. And "this forum" doesn't mean "Bogleheads" or "Personal Consumer Issues" or anything like that. You haven't lost...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: and ETF of ETFs?
Replies: 7
Views: 707

Re: and ETF of ETFs?

I'm just answering your question. This is not a recommendation. There exists an ETF from Cambria Funds, ticker symbol GAA, for "Global Asset Allocation." The description, according to their web page, is: The Cambria Global Asset Allocation ETF (NYSE: GAA) utilizes a quantitative approach to manage a...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 23, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RIP to value investing...
Replies: 40
Views: 4506

Re: RIP to value investing...

And yes, I realize that CNBC is just noise... Yeah, this article is pure noise. This article is just a random mishmash of opinion, with nary a fact to look at. You can't even argue over it because there's nothing there to argue about. And about that opinion? It's the opinion of one Inigo Fraser-Jen...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 23, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?
Replies: 66
Views: 5459

Re: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?

...Another thing is that Vanguard is a behemoth. It should be constantly looking for ways to use the money it gathers without overwhelming the companies that it purchases the public stock of. It can do that by getting in on the action before the companies issue publicly traded stock... This. Vangua...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does investing in US stocks mean investing in US Dollar?
Replies: 19
Views: 1345

Re: Does investing in US stocks mean investing in US Dollar?

You are never going to see anything in investing clearer or more consistent than that. "US stock market investments are dollar investments" may not be the 100% whole truth, but it's most of the truth. Unfortunately, this is true. Human brains are built for pattern matching, and will find patters ev...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?
Replies: 66
Views: 5459

Re: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?

My prediction is that this will be like so many other things--Vanguard's "Irish hedge fund,*" Vanguard's market neutral fund, Vanguard's commodities fund, and Vanguard's factor funds. They'll have $250,000 minimums, they'll be invisible or hard to find in the personal.vanguard.com website unless you...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does investing in US stocks mean investing in US Dollar?
Replies: 19
Views: 1345

Re: Does investing in US stocks mean investing in US Dollar?

WARNING: Read alex_686's post below . I've been looking into this, in my own way. Although the differences are as stated, and are quite parallel with differences in the strength of the dollar, I think alex_686 is right that dollar value fluctuations aren't close enough to being enough to explaining ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone knew the answer where the money is
Replies: 20
Views: 2855

Re: Anyone knew the answer where the money is

I've had many versions of this experience over the years, maybe half a dozen times, maybe ten. The thing that's troubling is that the front-line people, the people who talk to you on the phone, have never known and never succeeded in finding out "where the money is." So they fob you off by inventing...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 1625

Re: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns

How hard would it have been to write "Volatility targeting would have improved risk adjusted returns," rather than "Volatility targeting improves risk adjusted returns?" How hard would it have been for academics Dreyer and Hubrich, in their paper , to write "we show that in the past, these strategie...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value vs Multifactor
Replies: 35
Views: 2170

Re: Small Value vs Multifactor

I don't tilt. I think I can make a valid observation anyway. The multifactor funds are different from each other, don't follow any consensus index, and many of them are following proprietary time-varying weighting strategies. So as far as I can see, they can't really be benchmarked, and can't really...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is VGT ETF pointless if you hold Vanguard Total stock Index?
Replies: 20
Views: 1919

Re: Is VGT ETF pointless if you hold Vanguard Total stock Index?

Thanks for the great response! Are you aware if it’s possible to hold AI funds created by other companies through Vanguard? There are brokerages and there are mutual funds. Mutual fund companies are firms that operate mutual funds. Dodge & Cox is a mutual fund company. Brokerages are places that al...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5165

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

Why don't you use the data from this paper (see p. 21)? https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=879291 The conclusions of the paper are problematic because they used arithmetic instead of geometric returns, but the data methodology is at least sound. That is, the database has largely ad...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 500 Index Expense Ratio History
Replies: 9
Views: 1191

Re: Vanguard 500 Index Expense Ratio History

This is strictly from memory, but I remember reading some Vanguard literature, probably in the early 1990s--before they introduced Total Stock, anyway--that was talking about VEXMX, the Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund and explaining that investors who wanted to "buy the market" should invest in ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The problem in retirement we rarely discuss [what to do with stock funds]
Replies: 58
Views: 5657

Re: The problem in retirement we rarely discuss [what to do with stock funds]

Take the money out as you need it and pay the taxes on it. What other plan could there possibly be? What other plan could there possibly ever have been?

If the "problem" is "I don't want to pay any taxes, ever," there is no solution.
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3803
Views: 1094239

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Bargain alert: $1.99 Kindle edition, Savage Continent: Europe in the Aftermath of World War II , by Keith Lowe. One of the most illuminating and mind-altering books I've read in the past ten years. (People who actually know history probably knew it all, but I didn't). Full disclosure: I only read ha...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The End of Passive Investing?
Replies: 55
Views: 4796

Re: The End of Passive Investing?

I love the confidence! Can anyone point me in the direction of previous posts? I tried searching but only found one, and that had just one brief reply. Try this one, for a start: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market Is Indexed . https://i.imgur.com/DIRYn0z.jpg ...if half of the market is indexed (in...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The End of Passive Investing?
Replies: 55
Views: 4796

Re: The End of Passive Investing?

"What would happen if everybody indexed?" is probably not a useful question. Since it is often asked that way, Bogle answered it. It's much the same kind of question as "what would happen if everybody in the world with a toilet flushed their toilet at the same time?" Answer: Chaos, catastrophe. Is t...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is VGT ETF pointless if you hold Vanguard Total stock Index?
Replies: 20
Views: 1919

Re: Is VGT ETF pointless if you hold Vanguard Total stock Index?

Forgive me, but you need to step back and separate some linked, intermediate questions that you've mixed together in your question. Bluntly, you need to do some homework. First, the aim of holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund is to hold an exact, miniature replica of the stock market i...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why NO International Bond Index ??
Replies: 14
Views: 1843

Re: Why NO International Bond Index ??

I didn't complicate my portfolio by adding another bond fund, because I read Vanguard's paper, slightly before their launch of the fund: Global fixed income: Considerations for U.S. investors . I found it to be very interesting, rich in information--and completely unconvincing. The conclusion I came...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: short term treasury ETFs a money market account substitute?
Replies: 20
Views: 1664

Re: short term treasury ETFs a money market account substitute?

Here's the period of worst performance. VGSH in blue, Prime Money Market in orange. Same chart assets but three month rolling return instead of growth. https://i.postimg.cc/9F1J9069/VGSH-Capture.jpg I know you prefer rolling returns just generally, as a general all-purpose view of what was happenin...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing VS. buying Berkshire Hathaway stock?
Replies: 34
Views: 2752

Re: Indexing VS. buying Berkshire Hathaway stock?

...Also, remember when people used to talk about Warren Buffett and Bill Miller in the same breath?... In the Legg Mason Value Trust, Miller had a tendency to buy more of whatever stocks were going down. What I remember is that when the fund was beating the S&P 500, this behavior was widely praised...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing VS. buying Berkshire Hathaway stock?
Replies: 34
Views: 2752

Re: Indexing VS. buying Berkshire Hathaway stock?

... If [Warren Buffett] is no longer in the picture, how is [Berkshire Hathaway] any different than any other actively managed mutual fund?... Grumble, grumble, grumble. An individual stock is not a mutual fund . Berkshire Hathaway is not an "actively managed mutual fund." Stocks don't need to meet...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing VS. buying Berkshire Hathaway stock?
Replies: 34
Views: 2752

Re: Indexing VS. buying Berkshire Hathaway stock?

It is amazing how hard it is for people to remember the way GE and GE stock was once regarded. It was very common for people to say that even though it was stock in an individual company, it was "like a mutual fund" because GE was so diversified, GE was in something like thirty different businesses,...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing VS. buying Berkshire Hathaway stock?
Replies: 34
Views: 2752

Re: Indexing VS. buying Berkshire Hathaway stock?

Why Warren Buffett says index funds are the best investment, CNBC, 1/3/2018:
“Consistently buy an S&P 500 low-cost index fund,” he told CNBC’s On The Money. “I think it’s the thing that makes the most sense practically all of the time.”
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isn’t stock market lower today ?
Replies: 14
Views: 1352

Re: Why isn’t stock market lower today ?

Just let go of the idea of "explanations" of daily movements. Just let it go. Pay enough attention to discover for yourself what nonsense it is, and then put it behind you and let it go. After the fact people invent explanations. Something good happens and the market goes down? Everybody says, after...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SoClean for Cpap machine
Replies: 10
Views: 919

Re: SoClean for Cpap machine

The problem is that it is an ozone generator, and ozone is poisonous. Cue dozens of back-and-forth claims and counterclaims. I think this is a case of "follow the directions for the CPAP machine." If it recommends using an ozone or UV sterilizer, do it. If it doesn't, don't. Last year I looked up so...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Low-Volatility Investing Works - Sometimes
Replies: 23
Views: 1599

Re: Larry Swedroe: Low-Volatility Investing Works - Sometimes

...But it has become popular, a sure sign of lower expected returns in investing... The article uses the phrase "the curse of popularity," but... as nearly as I can tell... it does not say that "the curse of popularity" is a general problem that afflicts "investing" generally. For example: Today’s ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook Libra Cryptocurrency - effect on stocks or bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3540

Re: Facebook Libra Cryptocurrency - effect on stocks or bonds?

...No you can't impute the use of bitcoin to Facebook Libra from a legality perspective. There is a difference. Who do you sue for bitcoin? How do you enjoin bitcoin? Bitcoin operates on a globally decentralized blockchain. Facebook on the other hand is a company, which can be sued, regulated, cont...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5165

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

I don't know how to approach the endpoint problem. As I mentioned, and as is clear if you look at the charts for large-cap blend and small-cap value alone, it basically all comes down to two time periods, two "bursts:" 1970-1975 and 1999-2004. SCV did great during 1999-2004. In the category averages...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium
Replies: 65
Views: 5304

Re: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Serious Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium

If we are going to trust Fama on the basis of his Nobel prize, then shouldn't we trust what Fama actually said?[/b] No, we should trust what he actually does. No, because what he said is that it is a matter of personal taste for the various dimensions of risk. According to Fama , I shouldn't be inv...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5165

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

...the use of inconsistent allocations, 60/40 against 50/50). How relevant is that for passive investors pondering about low-cost passive SV/LB funds? Er, not really? ... I have to think that equalizing risk is reasonable. Comparing the return of two portfolios with different volatilities is not ap...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs: MILN
Replies: 7
Views: 552

Re: The Case Against ETFs: MILN

P.S. And I see that since inception, MILN, whatever the heck it is, has a) made money, and b) outperformed the S&P 500. I mean, that's something. Not every mutual fund does that. It's more than the AQR Style Premium Alternatives Fund has managed to do in the same time frame.
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs: MILN
Replies: 7
Views: 552

Re: The Case Against ETFs: MILN

Sorry, it's still not really a case against ETFs. You're just saying that many or most ETFs are bad and have no good reason for existence. And illustrating it with a single example. I happen to agree with you, but many or most mutual funds are also bad and have no good reason for existence. Let me o...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5165

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

Speaking of data reliability... even acknowledging that this isn't close to being a primary source, I still think this is shocking. Time how many seconds it takes you to spot the problem here. This is from the beautifully produced and very expensive volume, the Ibbotson SBBI 2015 Classic Yearbook, ,...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5165

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

...by the way, Ken French has removed the back-to-1926 "historical benchmark returns" from his "data library" website. To those in the know, what is the best source of pre-1980s data on SCV now that Ken French disavowed his own data? Do you have any background on this? I couldn't find anything on h...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A. Gary Shilling on Treasuries (TBond Bull)
Replies: 11
Views: 1301

Re: A. Gary Shilling on Treasuries (TBond Bull)

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. Apparently we may already be in a recession. or at a minimum, all the posts over the last year stating that "interest rates have nowhere to go but up" may have been wrong. The first post I've personally made note of that said Interest rates can only go up was m...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5165

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

Easy. When a tilt sends you to a smaller portion of the market, tilt returns get more random. That doesn't mean small/value premiums don't exist. It more means the guy who could've hypothetically invested that way would've lost money because a somewhat randomly chosen basket of small value stocks (...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5165

Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

Let me make one long disclaimer up front. There are many obvious issues with what I'm about to do. Morningstar has category average data going back to 1968 for the "small cap value" category, but I don't know what funds in it actually go back to 1968; I don't know how Morningstar determines the cate...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: happy when the market is down - want to understand
Replies: 42
Views: 3405

Re: happy when the market is down - want to understand

...I want to understand when people say investors in the prime of their careers should be happy when the market dips because they can buy stocks cheaper... It's a sort of ideological point of view. It involves a number of assumptions about how stock prices move. I believe it also incorporates a sor...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ukraine Makes Up 43% of Total World Bond?
Replies: 11
Views: 2216

Re: Ukraine Makes Up 43% of Total World Bond?

The day that VGOVX (emerging markets government bonds) launched, I was intrigued to see that they had put it at Risk Potential 5, their highest risk category--same as their emerging markets stock index fund. I actually reported it to them as a likely mistake. They actually replied to me and said no,...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: short term treasury ETFs a money market account substitute?
Replies: 20
Views: 1664

Re: short term treasury ETFs a money market account substitute?

You have to decide on the risk/reward relationship that you care about, but I can say this much. The time period 1/2010 through 12/2018 includes 103 overlapping six-month time periods. During those time periods, assuming an initial investment of $10,000 at the beginning of the six-month period: On t...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? [Morningstar article]
Replies: 40
Views: 3387

Re: "Whats-the-Best-Diversifier-or-equity-risk.

...Did the same with EDV instead of VUSTX now Portfolio 2 is at -20%. Another important point: Portfolio 2 recovered in Sept 2009 vs Dec 2010 of Portfolio 3. I think you're making my own point for me. What you are saying is something like "VUSTX wasn't the best choice, EDV was more effective." But ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Extend MacBook Battery Life by plugging in as much as possible?
Replies: 49
Views: 3446

Re: Extend MacBook Battery Life by plugging in as much as possible?

Back in the NiCad days, I formed a definite opinion: individual batteries are just variable. It's not like some technologies (tires, water heaters, incandescent light bulbs) where the useful life of every individual thing is fairly uniform. Batteries are just capricious. The manufacturing process mu...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: User reviews - How do you use them?
Replies: 33
Views: 1267

Re: User reviews - How do you use them?

User reviews and average numbers of stars are no good for assessing general quality. I ignore all five-star reviews (mostly sound astroturfed) and all one-star reviews (sound like dead-on-arrival complaints, or disgruntled employees, or nutcases). I start with the four-star and three-star reviews, l...