Search found 33633 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Brokerage account vs. "old style" ?
Replies: 2
Views: 194

Re: Vanguard: Brokerage account vs. "old style" ?

No. Mutual funds, that is the actual funds, are not insured by SIPC any more than individual stocks are. Mutual funds have whatever intrinsic risks they have. Due to the protections of the Investment Company Act of 1940 I think they have great deal of protection against fraud or neglect in handling ...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 35
Views: 1519

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

...Isn't the idea, that if foreign markets move quite differently than the US it does have an impact on how much or even in which direction the overall needle moves?... "Quite differently?" I'd ask, "well, what happened the last time the market crashed?" Blue, United States. Orange, developed marke...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roger Ibbotson and ZebraEdge Annuity
Replies: 2
Views: 342

Re: Roger Ibbotson and ZebraEdge Annuity

Are there any professors of finance that remain independent of commercial interests and don't try to monetize their reputation through association with companies that sell financial products?
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home
Replies: 15
Views: 3556

Re: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home

Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:24 am
...You forgot that your car takes over from you when you are braking or if manoeuvring violently...
Indeed. And it is an interesting question how my car prioritizes protecting my life versus protecting the lives of others.
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 35
Views: 1519

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

My opinion is that the "case" against international stocks boils down to nothing more than "why?" and that the "case" for them boils down to nothing more than "why not?" Stocks are stocks. I see no reason to think international stocks are hugely different from U.S. stocks. There has been internation...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home
Replies: 15
Views: 3556

Re: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home

We are further down the road toward bad 1950s SF about robot domination than I expected to see in my lifetime. It's not obvious because so many of the things that are happening are "merely" strong nudges, not total compulsion, and because the weird artificial not-quite-intelligence of Google, Siri, ...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So bought Litecoin@ $150...
Replies: 14
Views: 2310

Re: So bought Litecoin@ $150...

What the heck. So put in 1K for fun.. I don't know what is going to happen but it hit 270 today and seems to be goin crazy.. Well the most I will lose is 1k. This is only true if you have a rule that if you lose the 1K you will give up on cryptocurrency and never try it again--and you actually stic...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 21
Views: 1216

Re: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?

The takeaway is to take opportunities when they appear and to buy ETFs when there is a flash crash. :twisted: So I think the chart posted by nisiprius is a very strong reason to use ETFs. Is there a known example of someone actually managing to buy VTI, or indeed any heavily affected ETF, during th...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 21
Views: 1216

Re: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?

Fidelity sells many ETFs for zero commission, about anything anyone could want. You can buy or sell the shares for free (as long as you are not doing frequent short term trades in and out of the same ETF). Schwab also does the same. No-commission trades (within various over-trading limits) are now ...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 21
Views: 1216

Re: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?

Hello, I was looking at the brokerage fees at Vanguard and it looks like you can get Vanguard ETFs without any commission. That sounds too good to be true. Why would anyone use investor class mutual funds when they can get the ETF with a lower expense ratio and no transaction fee? In addition, ETFs...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any of you trade just a little as a hobby?
Replies: 32
Views: 2330

Re: Any of you trade just a little as a hobby?

I've bought individual stocks about fifteen times in my life, from ages twenty to sixty. I would not call it "trading" and I would not call it a hobby. I would call it small mistakes and learning experiences. I'm slightly in the black over my lifetime. The last time I bought an individual stock was ...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to invest in a bull market
Replies: 17
Views: 1941

Re: When to invest in a bull market

Hello - I'd like to invest $100,000 in the S&P 500 Index mutual fund... My investment horizon is approximately 7 years ... Take some time to cruise through Vanguard's web pages describing the Vanguard 500 Index fund. Come back with questions about what you read. Among other things you will see this...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2252

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

bool UndoWriteToDisk(const CBlockUndo& blockundo, CDiskBlockPos& pos, const uint256& hashBlock, const CMessageHeader::MessageStartChars& messageStart) { // Retrieve secret encrypted crash date from storage CAutoFile fileout(OpenUndoFile(pos), SER_DISK, CLIENT_VERSION); if (fileout.IsNull()) return ...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI-Is this truly the total us stock market?
Replies: 6
Views: 1021

Re: VTI-Is this truly the total us stock market?

Yes and no. Yes, it is very darned close to any reasonable definition of the total U.S. stock market. Does it match what is recommended for U.S. stocks in "lazy portfolios" is trickier. It is one of the recommendations to represent U.S. stocks in a three-fund portfolio . In my personal opinion, the ...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin
Replies: 64
Views: 3758

Re: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin

Lightning Network is a technology which allows instant micropayments anywhere in the world... Lightning Network is not a technology yet. It is a controversial proposal that hasn't been completed, much less implemented. It was said in the past that bitcoin would allow instant micropayments anywhere ...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1312

Re: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?

My understanding is that the fund companies that do indexing are very much aware of the front running that traders do to index funds and that they have themselves adopted patient trading strategies. Is there a Vanguard expert out there who can verify this? In point of fact the construction of index...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1312

Re: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?

DFA funds are, in fact, low cost by most standards. (Morningstar's, for example, although I think Morningstar is pretty lenient about giving funds a fee level of "low.")
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1312

Re: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?

(Oops... Taylor beat me to it) Look, folks, for an index fund we don't actually need to know what the costs are , because we can just compare the fund's actual results to the index. https://s8.postimg.org/mxqzk1r0l/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-12-10_a_la_s_4.49.23_PM.png For 2012, 13, 14, 15, 16, and 20...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1312

Re: Do DFA Funds have lower trading costs than Index Funds?

As a small-cap and value-tilted shop, I would expect DFA to kick performance butt with their DFSVX small-cap value fund. Sure, it is not exactly the asset allocation of something like the Vanguard small-cap value fund, but 5.8% for DFA versus 10.9% for Vanguard means that whatever DFA is doing to p...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]
Replies: 33
Views: 6036

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]

In Jack Bogle's "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing", Jack recommends that for the investors who are so inclined to trade in individual stocks, to create a "funny money" account and allocate no more than 5% of your investment portfolio for these purposes. This will serve two purposes: 1) sat...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2252

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

... Companies Accepting Bitcoin ... https://s8.postimg.org/xx2jklbdx/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-12-10_a_la_s_1.47.46_PM.png I thought I would do a reality check on the idea that Paypal "accepts BItcoins." After all, Subway and many places do accept PayPal. Can I load bitcoin into my PayPal account an...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2252

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

You can purchase anything from computer services, to pizza, real estate, a Tesla car, a Subway sandwich, airline tickets, women’s lingerie, or even manicures with Bitcoin. Amazon.com offers a 5% discount for any purchase made with Bitcoin.[/i] No bitcoin fan has yet chosen to comment on my attempt ...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2252

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

I think bubbles and crashes are like building Jenga towers, or watching dirt being piled onto a huge mound, or snow piling up to the point of avalanche. Once it gets to the point where tiny things have the possibility of snowballing, the tiny thing that starts the avalanche could occur anywhere or a...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?
Replies: 51
Views: 3760

Re: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?

Keep in mind that inflation probably will not erode the purchasing power if you choose good, competitive bank CDs. The argument that "cash" is a foolish investment because its purchasing power will be cut in half in 72/X years (where X is the inflation rate) is true if "cash" means physical, paper c...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 2939

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

...Investors did get their inflation adjustment, though it took until sometime in the mid-1980's before they got it. So yes, stocks do hedge inflation but with a very important qualification, you might have to wait awhile to get your inflation adjustment. In the case of 1970's stagflation, it took ...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 2939

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

...I also want to make the point that even though stocks are perceived as an inflation hedge, inflation spikes can be devastating to stocks in the shorter term. Stagflation was very hard on stocks and even worse for bonds... Indeed. On this point we can be categorical. There is no close time connec...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dash Into Cash in the WSJ
Replies: 16
Views: 3897

Re: Dash Into Cash in the WSJ

I used a rewards checking account for about three years--don't remember just which years but in the time I used it, the interest rate dropped from 3.49% to 1.49%, while the maximum amount on which that interest rate could be earned dropped from $50,000 (just before I opened the account) to $20,000 t...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Password Protection
Replies: 83
Views: 6223

Re: Password Protection

Carolina Shagger wrote:
Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:19 pm
...I admit I am leery of the cloud (isn't that just someone else's computer?)...
Yes.
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 2939

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

I agree Nisi. My guess is 29-38 is the worst "decade". Also, if this was done on a real basis, my guess is that the 70-79 period wins. Can check this in DFA matrix book https://www.ifa.com/pdf/matrix%20book%202017.pdf Worst 10-year period for US large cap stocks of any 10-year period from 1926 to 2...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How bonds would have been better in 2008 crash
Replies: 5
Views: 632

Re: How bonds would have been better in 2008 crash

Bonds are not all that different from cash. I think a good way to think about bonds in a portfolio, if you're not too familiar with bonds, is to think of them, as a first approximation, as being like cash. In fact, some people in this forum have argued that good, competitive bank CDs are at least as...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 50
Views: 3517

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

The Subway in Allentown, PA still isn't answering its phone, but just as a reality check, I proceeded up to the "payment" page on their website and bitcoin is not shown as a payment option. It has now been over four years since the first news items about it accepting Bitcoin appeared. So, either the...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 2939

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

That's just an artifact of the coincidence of the crash happening to occur in a year ending in 9. According to a list of the "Largest Declines in U.S. Stock Market History," from 1871-present there were 1. There were, respectively, 4, 1, 2, 2, 1, 0, 0, 2, 4, 1 crashes whose bottom was in years endin...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]
Replies: 33
Views: 6036

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]

...But that didn't dissuade me from thinking I could intelligently pick something like Amazon based on what I see first hand with my own purchasing habits (a massive increase in the everyday consumer moving to online shopping)... That's just what Peter Lynch seemed to be advocating. He invested in ...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 6066

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

There was a draft paper a few years ago, mentioned on the forum, but forum and Google search and my memory are all too weak to retrieve it. I don't know if the paper was ever published or if other work supports it. It could be important. The gist was that the writers were convinced they had found a ...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond vs Bond Fund? why funds?
Replies: 25
Views: 1596

Re: Bond vs Bond Fund? why funds?

I just inherited some individual bonds and it took the Vanguard bond desk AND the Vanguard SENIOR bond desk to sell them. I tried to sell one holding (as an experiment) using the Vanguard web page but I got a message that there were no outstanding bids to buy the bonds I wanted to sell so I needed ...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds ever better than a Fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1078

Re: Are Bonds ever better than a Fund?

I think the answer is that it depends on your situation. There isn't a blanket answer. An individual bond is a contract to pay specific numbers of dollars on specific dates. The bond issuer may or may not keep that contract. If the bond is rated "investment grade" (BBB or higher), then for most plan...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]
Replies: 33
Views: 6036

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]

...Anyone think most if not all of these stocks are not going to do well in the next 10 years given where the world is headed with AI, self driving cars, the IOT, and a continued move to online marketplaces? It was not a slightly better result with any of these stocks, it was hugely better results ...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pepsi moving from NYSE to NASDAQ
Replies: 5
Views: 649

Re: Pepsi moving from NYSE to NASDAQ

It might make some difference to the investor. The NYSE used to have stricter listing requirements than other exchanges, and in some cases companies have moved because they wanted to do something that wasn't quite kosher according to the NYSE rules. The specific example I have in mind was Wang Labor...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 50
Views: 3517

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

...It takes about 5 seconds for Subway to process my credit-card and send me on my way... I'll get pretty hungry if I have to wait 20 hours for my bitcoin purchase to go through... I looked a bit further into the "Subway accepts Bitcoin" idea. I assumed the chain signed up with GoCoin or something....
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you subscribe to digital newspapers?
Replies: 92
Views: 5421

Re: Do you subscribe to digital newspapers?

I have finally given in and I have paid subscriptions to two newspapers: the Washington Post and the nearby big-city local paper.
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you subscribe to digital newspapers?
Replies: 92
Views: 5421

Re: Do you subscribe to digital newspapers?

Also footnotes are a problem. I found this out when reading the first volume of Mark Twain's autobiography on my Kindle. This book is about 2/3 autobiography and about 1/3 footnotes which are all in the back of the book, not on the page. No way was I going to skip ahead each time and read the footn...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Expands Active Fixed Income Fund Lineup With Emerging Markets Bond Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 895

Re: Vanguard Expands Active Fixed Income Fund Lineup With Emerging Markets Bond Fund

...Interesting. Are Emerging Market bonds less risky than Emerging Market stocks?... Vanguard says so. VEMBX (and VGOVX, Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund) https://s8.postimg.org/oe14g6hpx/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-12-08_a_la_s_4.59.56_p._m.png Moderate funds—Risk level 3 Vanguard...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 98
Views: 10122

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

...re/max london actually accepts bitcoin as payment!... Please point us to something, from within the last few months that shows us that they really are doing this currently. The other day, someone said that the Subway sandwich chain accept bitcoin as payment and I clicked all over their website, ...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?
Replies: 51
Views: 3760

Re: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?

Hi! I have a friend who wants to put away a mid-five-figure sum for five years, and he cannot afford to lose any of it. Then he can't afford to lose 20%. Source https://s8.postimg.org/adu0qi1tx/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-12-08_a_la_s_2.51.43_p._m.png He's not an investor, though he trusts my opinion....
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond vs Bond Fund? why funds?
Replies: 25
Views: 1596

Re: Bond vs Bond Fund? why funds?

Speaking as someone who threw in the towel on a portfolio of about twenty issues (in two accounts, IRA and Roth, so a total of about thirty lines on the statement) and went with a fund... basically, convenience. But a lot of convenience. Or, a a lot of inconvenience if you don't. 1) If you are not g...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Capital One 360 Savings raise rates?
Replies: 31
Views: 3575

Re: Did Capital One 360 Savings raise rates?

flyingaway wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:18 pm
Why does anyone NOT use their Money Market account if it has a higher interest? What is the downside?
$10,000 minimum.
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 50
Views: 3517

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Josh Brown CNBC did a foray into Bitcoin and it seems that it takes a week or so to actually get the trade through to your account. this statement is missing a lot of context. if you have funds already with an exchange, buy/sell is instantaneous. Did you read Greyfox's account of his experience, Bu...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need a history atlas or book of maps
Replies: 7
Views: 422

Re: Need a history atlas or book of maps

There are certainly such thing as historical atlases. The one I happen to own myself is the Times Concise Atlas of World History , but it's pretty old! It's about 150 pages of maps, 9x12". Paperback. Printed in 1985, hee hee, with a price sticker on it that says $19.95. I open it up about once a yea...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 50
Views: 3517

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Given that At 12:48 p.m., for instance, bitcoin was trading at $19,141 a coin on Bithumb, an exchange in South Korea. At the same time, it was trading at $14,573 on Bitfinex, based in Taiwan. I would say that there is no way to know what "the" price of bitcoin is , let alone what it will be. I also...