Search found 38471 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: stock risk is elevated, check your bond allocation
Replies: 8
Views: 1116

Re: Vanguard: stock risk is elevated, check your bond allocation

Given that Davis' words are so very cautious, hedged, and, as he says "guarded..." Our near-term outlook for global equity markets remains guarded , and the chance of a large drawdown for equities and other high-beta [more volatile] assets remains elevated and significantly higher than it would be i...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market went down in 2018, so why do people forget that
Replies: 29
Views: 2504

Re: market went down in 2018, so why do people forget that

Because people have a tendency to repeat random other things they see or read, without bothering to spend ten minutes online verifying whether they are still true. Well into 2010 or 2011 or so, I was still reading freshly-dated postings and articles saying casually that in the US stocks had beaten b...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are individual stocks back on the table now that we have $0 commissions?
Replies: 54
Views: 3576

Re: Are individual stocks back on the table now that we have $0 commissions?

To throw a little freefloating FUD into the mix... as with other seeming freebies, $0 commissions can't be sound business for brokerages in themselves. That doesn't mean they won't persist. My local bank has been offering free coffee to customers for over twenty years now. And it doesn't mean everyo...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are individual stocks back on the table now that we have $0 commissions?
Replies: 54
Views: 3576

Re: Are individual stocks back on the table now that we have $0 commissions?

Costs are only a part of the justification for indexing, and they haven't been a big part for a long time. If you imagine a portfolio in which each individual stock holding is around $5,000, and commissions typical of the last decade or so, and if you assume you need to make one trade per year in or...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 93
Views: 5545

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

...There have been individuals that, for lengthy periods of time (I think decades at a time), have outperformed the "market". George Soros, Peter Lynch, Carl Icahn, John Templeton and Warren Buffett are a few names that come to mind... And there have been others, like Bill Miller, Ken Heebner, Bruc...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SP500 is very top heavy right now
Replies: 133
Views: 10831

Re: SP500 is very top heavy right now

...The chart doesn’t capture the huge decrease in publicly listed companies, especially per capita, over the past few decades. What huge decrease? Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index is widely accepted as the definitive benchmark for the U.S. equity market, and mea...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does VSCGX+VSMGX=50/50?
Replies: 7
Views: 409

Re: Does VSCGX+VSMGX=50/50?

1) In my opinion, it should be close enough. It is certainly close enough today . As I write this, Vanguard is showing: 60.42% stocks, 39.55% for bonds, and 0.03% for short-term reserves on their pie chart for VSMGX , and 40.37% stocks, 59.58% bonds, and 0.04% short-term reserves on their pie chart ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?
Replies: 60
Views: 4620

Re: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?

...If you buy the theory that small cap value will, over the long haul, out perform, is it now time to back up the truck? Is this one of those historic opportunities?... As nearly as I can understand it, the theory behind a small-cap value tilt has nothing to do with timing or "opportunities." In g...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 93
Views: 5545

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

I think what I'm having trouble understanding is Why do you HAVE to beat something (the market for example). Why can you not just make good returns on your investment(s)? Why does it matter that I would want to "beat" something else? For example, an index? Maybe I just need more time understanding ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultra Short Term Treasury ETFs
Replies: 36
Views: 2612

Re: Ultra Short Term Treasury ETFs

Here are some historical results, assuming a holding period of six months. Because the range of available data isn't the same, results for BIL and SHV shouldn't be directly compared to each other. BIL: SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill 7/2007 - 6/2019; 144 months total (limited by start of a...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Charitable gift annuities - doing well by doing good?
Replies: 19
Views: 887

Re: Charitable gift annuities - doing well by doing good?

To all who replied - thank you! I'm consistently impressed with the level of expertise that Bogleheads can bring to almost any topic! However, I really am quite curious as to whether your university is currently advertising a higher payout--5.4% at age 65--than this schedule, published by the Ameri...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 93
Views: 5545

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

thelateinvestor43: 1) You don't have to beat the market. 2) You have landed in one of the few investment forums on the Internet whose core philosophy is to try to tie the market. Not everyone who posts in the forum agrees with that or practices it, but that is part of the Bogleheads investment philo...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PF allocation: short-term vs long-term bonds
Replies: 5
Views: 532

Re: PF allocation: short-term vs long-term bonds

For bonds with high credit quality, I think there's consensus in this forum that, when viewed as an asset in isolation, as you go from short-term to intermediate-term to long-term, you see both increasing risk and increasing reward. The risk takes the form of interest rate risk, and--if they are not...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fitbit [stock] giving me fits
Replies: 10
Views: 973

Re: Fitbit giving me fits

...I know, buying individual stocks is foolish... According to the the Bogleheads investment philosophy it is foolish. ...but this one worked out, it seems... It seems to me that it hasn't worked out for you. Not for you. Not yet. Not until you actually sell and realize your profit. Alphabet has a ...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Better returns than savings account.
Replies: 5
Views: 885

Re: Better returns than savings account.

Don't expect magic. Bank accounts are virtually riskless. You are not likely to get much more return without taking risk. Taking risk is fine, but it is important to be sure that you personally understand the nature and amount of the risk you are taking. Vanguard assigns a "risk potential" classific...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Charitable gift annuities - doing well by doing good?
Replies: 19
Views: 887

Re: Charitable gift annuities - doing well by doing good?

A large university is advertising a 5.4% annual payout for gift annuities at age 65, so this is presumably in the ballpark for what other charities pay. Since you use words like "we" and "our," I am thinking that you want a two-life joint-and-survivor annuity which keeps paying as long as either me...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?
Replies: 64
Views: 6955

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

...How does one get access to the legacy M* charting tool now?... http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VSMGX after replacing "VSMGX" with the desired ticker symbol. If you make a typo or type a symbol Morningstar doesn't have data for, you'll get back to the current Morningstar site, i....
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?
Replies: 64
Views: 6955

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Looking at historical results for holding a $10,000 investment in VSMGX over periods of two years: VSMGX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth 11/1994 - 6/2019; 296 months total (limited by range of available data for VSMGX): Length of holding period: 24 months Total number of overlapping 24-month ...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to FXNAX during 2008?
Replies: 24
Views: 1091

Re: What happened to FXNAX during 2008?

Here's what Fidelity's website is showing for FXNAX inception date. I should have noticed this a few minutes ago.

FXNAX

Fund Inception
3/8/1990

Share Class Inception
5/4/2011

Image
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to FXNAX during 2008?
Replies: 24
Views: 1091

Re: What happened to FXNAX during 2008?

I'm not sure why some are saying FXNAX didn't exist in 2008. Because there's something odd about FXNAX. This might be the answer. FBIDX, which is the fund I once owned, did go back to about the same time as Vanguard Total Bond. It was a bond index fund but was not in their Spartan series and had ab...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to FXNAX during 2008?
Replies: 24
Views: 1091

Re: What happened to FXNAX during 2008?

I owned Fidelity's FBIDX, which was a Total Bond Market Index Fund, for a long time (it was the only choice in my employer's 401(k)). It did a reasonably good job of tracking the (then-Barclay's) Aggregate Bond Index. In 2007 it underperformed the index by enough to be annoying and embarrassing. Int...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Charitable gift annuities - doing well by doing good?
Replies: 19
Views: 887

Re: Charitable gift annuities - doing well by doing good?

A detail not mentioned in the Wiki article and worth thinking about is that charitable gift annuities, in most states, are, legally, not insurance .They are regulated in their own specific way, but they are not regulated as insurance . You cannot find "financial strength" ratings from A. M. Best, Mo...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?
Replies: 64
Views: 6955

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

I didn't peek, and I actually put a number in my mind when I saw the thread title, before looking at your range of answers. So here goes, and maybe I'll get egg on my face. But I'll copper my bets by making two guesses. My first guess, just looking at the title, is that I don't think bonds have come...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into bond funds with record low interest rates
Replies: 36
Views: 2979

Re: Rebalancing into bond funds with record low interest rates

...with rates being where they are, there's almost nowhere for interest rates to go but UP - which would obviously hit bond funds... First... the 10-year rate. Since it is at 1.82%, obviously it can go down at least 1.82%. And although I'm just looking at the last few weeks, it's higher than it was...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SP500 is very top heavy right now
Replies: 133
Views: 10831

Re: SP500 is very top heavy right now

An honest chart.

Image
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Productizing an idea
Replies: 28
Views: 1529

Re: Productizing an idea

There was a great "Planet Money" episode. Listen to it or Episode 724: Cat Scam about the husband-and-wife entrepreneurs who developed the "Ripple Rug," a play toy for cats, that was ripped off. Everybody has "million-dollar ideas." The notion that you can fairly easily turn a good idea into money i...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETF EDV
Replies: 24
Views: 1580

Re: Vanguard ETF EDV

DEZ1, a number of posters in Bogleheads have been advocating portfolios that include EDV as part of a strategy. They have rationales, supported by backtesting, etc. which they can explain for themselves. It is important to note that the role of EDV in that strategy is a lot more sophisticated than j...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Index Fund
Replies: 25
Views: 2266

Re: Total Bond Market Index Fund

I'm sticking with two bond funds, in roughly equal amounts: the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, VBTLX, and the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund, VIPSX, which is also intermediate term. In 2009, there was a posting forum suggesting switching to shorter duration, given the current i...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If one is pessimistic about both stocks and bonds, does a SPIA make sense?
Replies: 64
Views: 3190

Re: If one is pessimistic about both stocks and bonds, does a SPIA make sense?

But this is all moot up until arounda age 65 or so, because before that time mortality is very low, and the advantages of "mortality credits" are tiny and offset by the insurance company taking profits. I want to note that it is not just ¨the insurance company taking profits¨ that more than offsets...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If one is pessimistic about both stocks and bonds, does a SPIA make sense?
Replies: 64
Views: 3190

Re: If one is pessimistic about both stocks and bonds, does a SPIA make sense?

1) Insurance is state-regulated. Everything about insurance varies by state. The guaranty association laws, which were more or less written by the insurance industry, seem to follow a fairly consistent pattern in the states I've looked at, but check your own. Note that I'm not a lawyer and not an in...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...
Replies: 93
Views: 4826

Re: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...

In reality, I should be happy that 9V batteries are still easily bought everywhere... and that the 1-year replacement suggestion obviously incorporates a fat margin of safety. Yeah, I bothered to get out my multimeter and for the record my battery tester draws 10 milliamps from a 9V battery on the 9...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If one is pessimistic about both stocks and bonds, does a SPIA make sense?
Replies: 64
Views: 3190

Re: If one is pessimistic about both stocks and bonds, does a SPIA make sense?

No. Because a SPIA is not an investment strategy, it is a retirement spending strategy. An insurance company doesn't have access to any wonderful investments that are totally different from those you could buy yourself. People who just dislike SPIAs sometimes suggest that an SPIA is just a way to pa...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...
Replies: 93
Views: 4826

Re: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...

I have a VERY OLD AM only radio (a family heirloom) that uses 9-V battery. Problem solved. :D If only I'd saved the portable radio I had as a kid--about the size of a cereal box---I could snap together three 9V batteries to get 27V which would probably work in place of the 22-1/2-volt "B" battery. ...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...
Replies: 93
Views: 4826

Re: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...

...Can you use the still-working batteries in a less life-critical device?... To the very best of my knowledge, we do not have one single device in our house that uses 9V batteries except the smoke detectors. I used to have an alarm clock with a 9V backup battery, but it failed, and the new one use...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Study ranks 4,500 colleges by net present value of 40 year ROI
Replies: 52
Views: 6660

Study ranks 4,500 colleges by net present value of 40 year ROI

(I started by showing the rankings and asking readers what was being ranked). On what list are these colleges ranked in this order? 1 Albany College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences 2 St Louis College of Pharmacy 3 Massachusetts College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences 4 Massachusetts Institute of Tec...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM is real, too bad it doesn't work
Replies: 27
Views: 5093

Re: MOM is real, too bad it doesn't work

Index values for the QMOM index might be available at this site. Registration is free, but I can't register because I am not a financial professional and you must affirm that you are one in order to become a user. Could someone who is a financial profession register and report on whether values for ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM is real, too bad it doesn't work
Replies: 27
Views: 5093

Re: MOM is real, too bad it doesn't work

QMOM = Russell 1000. QMOM isn't trying to track the Russell 1000 index. It is trying to track the "QMOM Index." That is what Alpha Architect says. So, can you point us to a place where the curious can find published values for the QMOM Index, so that we can see how closely QMOM is tracking it? My i...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds getting killed today
Replies: 94
Views: 11467

Re: Long Term Bonds getting killed today

Not drawing any conclusions, just watching what's happening.

Image

Longer perspective:

Image
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM is real, too bad it doesn't work
Replies: 27
Views: 5093

Re: MOM is real, too bad it doesn't work

Forester wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:39 pm
QMOM = Russell 1000.
QMOM isn't trying to track the Russell 1000 index. It is trying to track the "QMOM Index." That is what Alpha Architect says. So, can you point us to a place where the curious can find published values for the QMOM Index, so that we can see how closely QMOM is tracking it?
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...
Replies: 93
Views: 4826

Re: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...

(Sigh) OK, I probably should consider getting ten year batteries... but... I'm pleased to see I did make a note with a Sharpie on them... my smoke detectors were manufactured in 2014 and installed in 2014. So if I put a ten year battery in, now, the smoke detectors will reach their end of life when ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM is real, too bad it doesn't work
Replies: 27
Views: 5093

Re: MOM is real, too bad it doesn't work

...Funds that don't follow an index do seem to have the disadvantage that it's difficult to evaluate them. I believe that some funds manage costs better than others, but without an index, how can we tell? However, I think avoiding an index isn't just about hiding your costs.... Agree to both. But, ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM is real, too bad it doesn't work
Replies: 27
Views: 5093

Re: MOM is real, too bad it doesn't work

Transaction costs would be reflected by index tracking error, specifically underperforming the index they track. I think one of the benefits of index funds is that the effect of transaction costs can't be hidden. And in my cynical opinion that might be one of the reasons why increasingly sophisticat...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM is real, too bad it doesn't work
Replies: 27
Views: 5093

Re: MOM is real, too bad it doesn't work

Uncorrelated wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:45 pm
...Does anyone have a link or DOI of the DFA paper?...
The article says "...according to new research available to clients of Dimensional Fund Advisors..." so, probably not.
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...
Replies: 93
Views: 4826

Re: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...

OP, your tester is measuring open voltage, which isn't accurate, especially with older batteries. A load test is better measure for performance. This tester is supposed to be testing with a standardized load. What makes you think it is measuring open voltage? (Sigh) Made me check. GBT-500A Because ...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Index Funds vs Fidelity Managed Assets Program
Replies: 11
Views: 1135

Re: Vanguard Index Funds vs Fidelity Managed Assets Program

"Fidelity thinks they can achieve around 8.25% est. annual ROR on the 85/15 portfolio." Since that is net of fees, they are suggesting that they can make 9.87% per year. (You say you've been making 10.1%, so on the face of it they are not suggesting that they can do much better.) On a $250,000 portf...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich people are hoarding cash
Replies: 153
Views: 23213

Re: Rich preparing for market drop

The title of the article is not "Rich Preparing for Market Drop," it is Some of the World’s Richest Brace for a Major Stock Sell-Off And others, of course, aren't. So, duh. Furthermore, since the "upcoming American presidential election" is mentioned as a concern, I would guess that whether or not o...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...
Replies: 93
Views: 4826

Re: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...

...Modern smoke detectors have up to 10 year batteries. A smoke detector needs to be replaced at least every 10 years, CO detectors I think are 8 years. CO detectors actually force a change after a certain number of years. I know because if they don't have a readout, they tell you in a very obnoxio...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...
Replies: 93
Views: 4826

(Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...

...yeah, once again, as always , I am dutifully replacing the smoke detector batteries. I do it annually on the fall time change. And, once again, as always, I am grumbling about the waste and environmental impact, when... https://imgur.com/i6wK1W8.jpg ...all three of our year-old smoke detector bat...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it a good time to transfer my inflation protected securities balance to the S&P 500
Replies: 20
Views: 1577

Re: Is it a good time to transfer my inflation protected securities balance to the S&P 500

...Wanted to take a little more risk for a little more reward... I am concerned about your saying that. Can you explain what has changed that makes you willing and able to take more risk than before? Something other than concerns about "I have only 30k saved for retirement at age 51. House is only ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's active bond ratings article
Replies: 18
Views: 1371

Re: Academics accuse Morningstar of misclassifying bond funds

Morningstar response: https://www.morningstar.com/learn/bond-ratings-integrity Thanks for finding that. ???? At a quick reading, the Chen, Cohen, and Gurun paper seems to be saying that "Many funds report more investment grade assets than are actually held in their portfolios, making these funds ap...