Search found 39869 matches

by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 8
Views: 756

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

Basically, like most Bogleheads, I just sort of shrug and use the Vanguard funds with "total" in their name. Larry Swedroe's dislike for the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund has been discussed often. It is a small and rather technical thing, in my opinion. The fund tracks the Bloomberg Barclay ...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [implications of] Delisting Chinese stocks?
Replies: 18
Views: 732

Re: [implications of] Delisting Chinese stocks?

I am sure a lot of funds own BABA. It seems like only yesterday that Vanguard was being raked over the coals for not holding it. Now it's the largest single holding in the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund, the largest single holding in the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund, an...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alarming Bid/Ask Spreads on ETFs
Replies: 38
Views: 2793

Re: Alarming Bid/Ask Spreads on ETFs

ETF fans always insist that there is nothing difficult about making the actual transactions, but I think they underestimate the amount of know-how they have picked up over the years. NedSaid is no novice at investing, yet the data presentation he was looking at online assumed knowledge about ETFs th...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How long is this profit sustainable as a New Trader?
Replies: 58
Views: 3327

Re: How long is this profit sustainable as a New Trader?

I'm reminded of a story that in the mid-sixties, an internal memo at Walt Disney Studios said that their goal should be to have one "Mary Poppins" every year.
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads: What is your largest single stock holding? (if any)
Replies: 39
Views: 1477

Re: Bogleheads: What is your largest single stock holding? (if any)

The last stock I owned was stock in a blue-chip company that was part of the Dow. I bought it because my granddaughter had started working for that company and it was a sort of sentimental "you-go-girl" gesture. It was about 0.1% of my portfolio. My investment diary entry, under "future intentions, ...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross country road trip from MA to Glacier NP and Yellowstone NP
Replies: 38
Views: 1494

Re: Cross country road trip from MA to Glacier NP and Yellowstone NP

I won't venture any guesses about conditions during the pandemic, and everything is personal, but in fact my wife and I made a six-week road trip from the New England area to Yellowstone in 2016, and here are my random thoughts. 0) That seems like an insanely short period of time for that kind of tr...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which investor is bullish?
Replies: 14
Views: 1341

Re: Which investor is bullish?

Do not read a variety of financial news sources, pay attention to guru opinions that catch your attention, synthesize them into some overall "everybody says" summary, and then take investment actions on that summary. You are just setting yourself up for "confirmation bias." At any given point in tim...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2020 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 40
Views: 2938

Re: Investing in International Stocks

The correlation between developed markets and emerging markets, as represented by VTMGX and VEIEX, typing them into PortfolioVisualizer's correlation tool and accepting all defaults, has been 0.88 . So in a total international index, you're talking about a roughly 20% allocation to something that ha...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2020 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 40
Views: 2938

Re: Investing in International Stocks

The AMEX was absorbed into the NYSE in 2008. The AMEX was slightly disreputable compared to the NYSE. It began as the "Curb Exchange" which literally took place outdoors. Although at least one financial paper published Curb listings, they included a warning notice: It should be understood that no su...
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The stocks are up but the economy's down"--good "Indicator" podcast episode
Replies: 12
Views: 1658

Re: "The stocks are up but the economy's down"--good "Indicator" podcast episode

ResearchMed wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 8:41 am
I'm getting a "The requested page could not be found." for the link to the transcript.

RM
A typo on my part. I'm sorry. It's fixed in the original post now. The correct link is: Stocks are up but the economy's down
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard reviews “commodities futures” for inclusion in Target Date Retirement Funds
Replies: 32
Views: 2866

Re: Vanguard reviews “commodities futures” for inclusion in Target Date Retirement Funds

Let's explore the question of whether adding commodities futures would have improved target date retirement funds in the past. To get as long a time period as possible, I chose one of the funds Vanguard started in 2003, Vanguard Target Retirement 2035, VTTHX. For "commodities futures," I chose the P...
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to find "index tracking" passive MF & determine differences between similar tracking funds?
Replies: 9
Views: 357

Re: How to find "index tracking" passive MF & determine differences between similar tracking funds?

I like the Bogleheads' three-fund portfolio approach, championed by one of the founding Bogleheads, Taylor Larimore. In particular, that article has sections on Vanguard funds Other than Vanguard, Boglehead-style In the three-fund approach, your portfolio consists of one fund in each of three basic ...
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the longest period for stock market to lose money?
Replies: 73
Views: 13030

Re: What is the longest period for stock market to lose money?

Firebirdparts, Also, regarding inflation in our country, I heard that it has steadily & inexorably gone up each year b/c of the Federal Reserve, since at least the 1930s, or even before that? If that's correct, then we can presume that it will keep going up each year in the future, until we finally...
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 46
Views: 2691

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

...I know that Larry Swedroe recommended P2P investments... He didn't recommend direct individual investments in peer-to-peer lending. As a part of a portfolio, he recommended a combination of one mutual fund and three interval funds--QSPRX, AVRPX, SRRIX, and LENDX--in equal amounts. The relative c...
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Black Swan is Here
Replies: 153
Views: 16751

Re: The Black Swan is Here

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 10:20 am
Am I the only investor that foresees a vaccine coming (or the virus simply going away on its own), stocks on sale at huge discounts, and the markets heading higher?
I doubt that there are many investors who foresee the virus "simply going away on its own."
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2020 7:26 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: MEMORIAL DAY
Replies: 33
Views: 2457

Re: MEMORIAL DAY

Thank you, Taylor.
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The stocks are up but the economy's down"--good "Indicator" podcast episode
Replies: 12
Views: 1658

"The stocks are up but the economy's down"--good "Indicator" podcast episode

Just mentioned this in another thread but I think it deserves its own. The Stocks are Up but the Economy's Down Short answer: it's the luck of the composition of the stock market: Because by a fluke of history, it just so happens that the companies that are the best positioned for the environment we...
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2020 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver
Replies: 29
Views: 1500

Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

...So why is there such a disconnect between the economy and stock market?... Actually, "The Indicator from Planet Money" had a very good episode on this just this week. If you are trying to understand, it's really worth listening to (ten minutes). Short answer: it's the composition of the stock ma...
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2020 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver
Replies: 29
Views: 1500

Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Brazil? There isn't hyperinflation in Brazil. There hasn't been in twenty years. If he's saying there is, then I wouldn't trust anything else he says, either. Source: World Bank Annual inflation in Brazil, 2019: 3.73% 2018: 3.67% 2017: 3.45% 2016: 8.74% 2015: 9.03% 2014: 6.33% 2013: 6.20% 2012: 5.40...
by nisiprius
Sun May 24, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Businesses that are permanently destroyed due to COVID?
Replies: 34
Views: 2703

Re: Businesses that are permanently destroyed due to COVID?

"...The restaurant industry is going to have to completely rethink its model..." Yes, but this kind of thing happens to many industries frequently all the time, with all kinds of results. None of which can be predicted with enough accuracy to pick winners and losers any faster than the market can. T...
by nisiprius
Sun May 24, 2020 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1473
Views: 705576

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

MT, Building a $2mm nest egg by age 40 after being in debt in your early 30s is a tremendous accomplishment. I would be interested in hearing more details about your career path / income trajectory after getting your Econ PhD if you are willing to share. On the career side, I'd rather not get in th...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it make sense to exclude China from portfolio and/or EM
Replies: 18
Views: 1078

Re: Does it make sense to exclude China from portfolio and/or EM

I am personally sympathetic to ESG investing, though I'm not holding any ESG funds myself. I don't feel any strong reason either to exclude China or to overweight China. And there are plenty of other countries I don't feel all that great about. Vanguard says that China accounts for about 10% of Vang...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you hold commodities?
Replies: 26
Views: 1532

Re: Do you hold commodities?

As for VCMDX, I assume you have noticed that Vanguard demands a minimum investment of $50,000 for this fund, and classifies it into their highest risk category, 5.
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you hold commodities?
Replies: 26
Views: 1532

Re: Do you hold commodities?

Since you mention oil specifically, you should know, if you don't already, how squirrelly commodity futures exchange-traded products can be. In 2006 or so, the financial press was carrying favorable stories about "innovative" new ETFs, USO and OIL, that would for the first time allow retail investor...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2020 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you hold commodities?
Replies: 26
Views: 1532

Re: Do you hold commodities?

I do not. In 2008, I posted: Although it is very fashionable at the moment in this forum, and in the wise books written by some of its members, to suggest that commodities are useful and important in an ordinary investor's portfolio, I think you would be very hard put to find any mainstream, sensibl...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime delayed shipping
Replies: 38
Views: 2490

Re: Amazon Prime delayed shipping

Having adapted to the idea of getting things in two days and quite often the next day, it's hard to adapt back. Amazon's estimated shipping times certainly have stretched out. At the same time, I think they really don't want things to arrive later than promised and they have been padding their estim...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Good Time for a HELOC
Replies: 11
Views: 1121

Re: Good Time for a HELOC

HELOCs are great for the added flexibility. if you need it, it's there... They weren't there when people needed them during the last financial crisis. Some 122,000 borrowers with Countrywide home-equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, received letters in January [2008]. A few months later, thousands of...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6947

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy

It wasn't Taleb telling people they could load up on small-value stocks and expect a "risk premium"... (and it certainly wasn't in Bogle's philosophy either) Hang on, what about the Larry portfolio then? Larry Swedroe is also in favor of small value, and his contributions have been highly valued on...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CapitalOne Venture would not forgive annual fee
Replies: 32
Views: 1844

Re: CapitalOne Venture would not forgive annual fee

cherijoh wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:59 am
Hm, I assumed that they refunded the fee when she cancelled the card.
Then that's a lot of work she doesn't need to do.
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CapitalOne Venture would not forgive annual fee
Replies: 32
Views: 1844

Re: CapitalOne Venture would not forgive annual fee

Do I assume you actually paid the fee? This is entirely up to you and in your situation I would have said that it was sufficiently fair for them to charge the fee that I would hang onto the card and make a serious note on the calendar to cancel it about three months before the next fee, in order to ...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2020 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4744

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

This is horrible for savers. Of course. It's a bad time for low-risk investments. It's not clear whether or not it is still a decent time for stock market investments. It's not clear on what inflation is going to be like. Bad times happen. People seem to feel entitled to "reasonable" returns on inv...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2020 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 46
Views: 2691

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

...I know that Larry Swedroe recommended P2P investments... He didn't recommend direct individual investments in peer-to-peer lending. As a part of a portfolio, he recommended a combination of one mutual fund and three interval funds--QSPRX, AVRPX, SRRIX, and LENDX--in equal amounts. The relative c...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2020 5:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does larger portfolio make one more or less risk tolerant
Replies: 25
Views: 1946

Re: Does larger portfolio make one more or less risk tolerant

You have to determine your risk tolerance for yourself. You don't look it up in a table, you don't ask someone else what it "should" be. A term for what you are asking about is "relative risk aversion." Someone with increasing relative risk aversion says "I've won the game, why should I keep playing...
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2523

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

If accepting the concept that CD's are preferable to STB funds for the reasons stated, how would that be accomplished if the funds are in retirement accounts? Tim Many banks offer both traditional IRA and Roth IRA accounts, both savings account and CDs. I've had no trouble transferring funds from m...
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Blown Power Amplifier: Repair or Replace? [resolved]
Replies: 39
Views: 1769

Re: Blown Power Amplifier: Repair or Replace?

Well, it looks like that's it for the trusty old NAD 2400. :( :( :oops: The fuses came a day early in the mail. I replaced the three blown fuses, plugged it in and pressed the power button. Nothing. The main 7A fuse had blown again. Looks like I'll be getting a replacement. :( Bummer. "I feel your ...
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6947

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb has a very convoluted, obfuscated way of saying "personally, I like to play long shots."
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6947

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

It's news to me that "Mandelbrot despised Fama whom he found both clueless & dishonorable." That would be interesting to me if true, but unfortunately I feel that I would want to hear it from a better source than Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6947

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

...Asness endorses most ideas of Fama and MPT... Maybe. ...and is thus close to Bogleheads philosphy. By clobbering him Taleb has shown concepts like MPT, the idea of efficient markets etc to be intellectually dishonest. These concepts are at teh heart of Bogleheads philosphy. No, I don't think MPT...
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2523

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

Anon9001 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:58 am
...I consider owning bonds that pay me 0% interest to be riskier than bonds that pay me above 0% interest. The riskiness is in the eye of the beholder...
No, that's not "risk," that's "return," and no useful purpose is served by mixing up the two concepts.
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2523

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

I agree with vineviz. A valid reason for shortening bond duration would be that you have discovered something new about your risk tolerance; you now feel that intermediate bonds exceed your risk tolerance and wish you had held short-term bonds all along. But it's my personal opinion that the risk of...
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is Chasing Yield Worth It? (Banks)
Replies: 15
Views: 1168

Re: Is Chasing Yield Worth It? (Banks)

You also have to take into account the "cost" of having places get their fishhooks into your brain. This, of course, is why they do it. A few years ago I was in the process of booking reservations at Walt Disney World Resort, first time I'd done it, and stressing for an hour over park-hopping and Ma...
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8768

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

All of the China-hating on Bogleheads makes me happy, in a way. It keeps the risk premium, and expected returns, Hugh for the rest of us. You've used varying hypothetical illustrations of vehicles that could have been used to invest in China. What actual funds or CEFs or ETFs do you use for your pe...
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2020 7:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chasing Individual Stocks
Replies: 45
Views: 2353

Re: Chasing Individual Stocks

In my opinion it is just a way of adding some random noise and manager risk on top of the intrinsic risks of the stock market, without any likelihood of getting extra return to compensate for it... and an opportunity to experience unnecessary emotional highs and lows. ...solid companies for your lon...
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Note funds
Replies: 20
Views: 4175

Re: Investing in Note funds

...A genuine distressed debt fund might be interesting, but it's a specialist area, and I imagine you'd need access to very good hedge funds that specialize in this area, and they usually have minimum investments like $500k or $1m, I believe)... 1) "Interesting" how the term "non-performing notes" ...
by nisiprius
Thu May 21, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolios: 1 Fund, 2 Fund, 3 Fund or 4 Fund?
Replies: 59
Views: 2831

Re: Portfolios: 1 Fund, 2 Fund, 3 Fund or 4 Fund?

Longinvest's 1 fund portfolio - VSMGX Life Strategy Moderate Growth Fund) : I wonder how safe it is to have ALL your eggs in one basket. Yes, the fund has stocks and bonds, and appears fairly stable, yet the thought of everything in one fund is a bit scary to me. The composition of VSMGX is: Vangua...
by nisiprius
Thu May 21, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2523

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

On July 19th, 2009, someone posted Interest rates can only go up, why go intermediate in bonds? I see the total bond fund and intermediate treasuries recommended a lot on here. I know people don't like to market time but interest rates are currently zero and whether rates rise in 2010 or 2011 or 201...
by nisiprius
Thu May 21, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is Chasing Yield Worth It? (Banks)
Replies: 15
Views: 1168

Re: Is Chasing Yield Worth It? (Banks)

In my personal opinion, no. That's because in my personal opinion, every deal that was good enough to induce me to change never lasted very long. My experience has been that there are, in fact, many ways to score a couple of hundred dollars in "free money" and most of them really work if you read th...
by nisiprius
Thu May 21, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I freaked out…now what?
Replies: 60
Views: 6065

Re: I freaked out…now what?

Mostly these are questions only you can answer. $10,000 invested in the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund, VBIAX, on 2/20/2020, would have been worth $7,722 on 3/23/2020. VBIAX is 60/40 and yours is 50/50 so portfolio would have fallen less. You might go back and see that what the number really as. Let's...
by nisiprius
Thu May 21, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do mixed ETFs generate a re-balancing premium?
Replies: 6
Views: 471

Re: Do mixed ETFs generate a re-balancing premium?

The very existence of a "re-balancing premium" is controversial. William J. Bernstein's opinions should be taken seriously as he was one of the popularizers of the phrase "rebalancing bonus." Is there any reason to believe that, on average, rebalancing will help more than it hurts? Not if we believe...