Search found 38426 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich preparing for market drop
Replies: 18
Views: 1910

Re: Rich preparing for market drop

The title of the article is not "Rich Preparing for Market Drop," it is Some of the World’s Richest Brace for a Major Stock Sell-Off And others, of course, aren't. So, duh. Furthermore, since the "upcoming American presidential election" is mentioned as a concern, I would guess that whether or not o...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...
Replies: 31
Views: 996

Re: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...

...Modern smoke detectors have up to 10 year batteries. A smoke detector needs to be replaced at least every 10 years, CO detectors I think are 8 years. CO detectors actually force a change after a certain number of years. I know because if they don't have a readout, they tell you in a very obnoxio...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...
Replies: 31
Views: 996

(Sigh) "Wasting" year-old smoke detector batteries...

...yeah, once again, as always , I am dutifully replacing the smoke detector batteries. I do it annually on the fall time change. And, once again, as always, I am grumbling about the waste and environmental impact, when... https://imgur.com/i6wK1W8.jpg ...all three of our year-old smoke detector bat...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it a good time to transfer my inflation protected securities balance to the S&P 500
Replies: 20
Views: 1475

Re: Is it a good time to transfer my inflation protected securities balance to the S&P 500

...Wanted to take a little more risk for a little more reward... I am concerned about your saying that. Can you explain what has changed that makes you willing and able to take more risk than before? Something other than concerns about "I have only 30k saved for retirement at age 51. House is only ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's active bond ratings article
Replies: 17
Views: 1148

Re: Academics accuse Morningstar of misclassifying bond funds

Morningstar response: https://www.morningstar.com/learn/bond-ratings-integrity Thanks for finding that. ???? At a quick reading, the Chen, Cohen, and Gurun paper seems to be saying that "Many funds report more investment grade assets than are actually held in their portfolios, making these funds ap...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's active bond ratings article
Replies: 17
Views: 1148

Re: Academics accuse Morningstar of misclassifying bond funds

I was thinking about trying to find Vanguard bond funds with a reasonably small number of bonds in them and seeing whether I could verify Morningstar's breakdown by grade. Vanguard's own website has its own breakdown, which might or might not help... ...but the problem is that the only Vanguard bond...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's active bond ratings article
Replies: 17
Views: 1148

Re: Academics accuse Morningstar of misclassifying bond funds

...It’s not super surprising; Morningstar isn’t an auditor... I would have thought they would at least do spot checks. Morningstar's response, quoted in the article, is seriously lacking. Morningstar said the researchers had “misunderstood” the company’s “proprietary methodologies” and used some of...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's active bond ratings article
Replies: 17
Views: 1148

Re: Academics accuse Morningstar of misclassifying bond funds

Wow. Just wow. The forum doesn't provide a suitable weepy emoticon, so I'll have to make so with "annoyed." :annoyed The FT article title is "Academics accuse Morningstar of misclassifying bond funds," but I'm not sure how much blame to assign to Morningstar and how much to the funds. One might thin...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kohl's credit card refuse to refund undelivered order
Replies: 27
Views: 1168

Re: Kohl's credit card refuse to refund undelivered order

Wow. So--maybe generally--if you get a store-branded credit card it is the store, not the bank, that handles disputes. That sucks. I would still try to reach the bank. I believe you should at least try contacting Capital One credit card customer service at 1 (800) 227-4825, and be persistent, and ke...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bucket List Adventures/Activities
Replies: 121
Views: 13651

Re: Bucket List Adventures/Activities

I add things to my bucket list after I've done them. It works much better that way. Quite a few things on my "hindsight bucket list" are things that would have been on my bucket list if I'd known about them before doing them, but I didn't. I was worried about the weather today but I did manage to se...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it a good time to transfer my inflation protected securities balance to the S&P 500
Replies: 20
Views: 1475

Re: Is it a good time to transfer my inflation protected securities balance to the S&P 500

I don't understand. I understand you to be saying that you are holding the Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities Fund, VIPSX, as most or all of your $30,000. Is that right? I also understand you to be saying that you plan to exchange most or all of it for an S&P 500 fund like the Vanguard 500 Inde...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: commodities
Replies: 4
Views: 335

Re: commodities

looking for best one PCRIX, the PIMCO Commodities RealReturn Strategy Fund, inception in 2002, is one of the oldest commodities funds and was widely praised back in the day when commodities were being presented as a splendid diversifier that ought to be in standard retirement savings portfolios. It...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no one created a etf of dividend free stocks
Replies: 32
Views: 2797

Re: Why no one created a etf of dividend free stocks

At the BH annual meeting, Mark Brancato, head of Vanguard's Portfolio Review Department, presented a chart showing the process Vanguard uses to decide if a new product is needed to serve Vanguard's mission "to give investors the best chance for investment success." https://imgur.com/BFUXWsI.jpg That...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kindle/Paperwhite -E Reader
Replies: 16
Views: 963

Re: Kindle/Paperwhite -E Reader

I saw that the Paperwhite model is expected to have a Black Friday sale, I think $90 instead of $130. My wife has one and likes it a lot. I'm envious because the screen is so soothingly paper-and-printlike. I understand your concern, but I'd worry just a bit about a used device. I think Amazon does ...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2019 early experience
Replies: 4
Views: 695

Re: H&R Block 2019 early experience

There's probably no reason not to get started on data entry. In fact I often make some cautious estimated entries and mark them as such. However, experience shows that the tax prep software companies are sort of... fibbing when they pretend the software is really available earlier than about Februar...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Timing of bond downshifting before retirement (to reduce SOR risk)?
Replies: 5
Views: 647

Re: Timing of bond downshifting before retirement (to reduce SOR risk)?

Investing is not a science*, and you should be very skeptical of anything that claims to be "quantitatively optimal." There are many schools of thought, and that is the only thing you can call them. What happens is that people build exquisitely complex and precise mathematical structures on top of w...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: is VINIX better than VTSAX ?
Replies: 13
Views: 1191

Re: is VINIX better than VTSAX ?

1) In my opinion, the difference between a total stock market index fund like VTSAX and an S&P 500 index fund like VINIX, hardly matters, because the S&P includes 80% of the dollars in the stock market, and because the rest of the stock market has been 93% correlated with the whole stock market. Whe...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 09, 2019 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds getting killed today
Replies: 68
Views: 8170

Re: Long Term Bonds getting killed today

...Five days of performance is supposed to tell me..:what exactly?... I don't know. But I don't know what "Long term bonds getting killed today" is supposed to tell us, either. If someone is following the traditional Boglehead philosophy, bonds are primarily for ballast or stability, not to activel...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds getting killed today
Replies: 68
Views: 8170

Re: Long Term Bonds getting killed today

Among people in the forum advocating the use of long-term bond funds, the commonest reason given is negative correlation with stocks. They feel confident in the persistence of negative correlation between stocks and bonds, so they use the longest-term bond vehicles they can find, so they can get the...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often should someone rebalance?
Replies: 43
Views: 3039

Re: How often should someone rebalance?

This is what William J. Bernstein said, and it deserves attention, both because he popularized the phrase "rebalancing bonus" and also because he is a regular presenter at the annual Bogleheads' meetings. Is there any reason to believe that, on average, rebalancing will help more than it hurts? Not ...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Bonds in free fall
Replies: 46
Views: 4635

Re: US Bonds in free fall

Since this type of thread does not exist here it is now... All the strong recent gains that Bonds have seen seem to be evaporating as we speak. BIV (Vanguard Intermediate Bond ETF) is DOWN 1.6% month to date so far and still dropping. Relative to the annual average expected return for the asset cla...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Financial Independence. - Healthcare costs
Replies: 65
Views: 5163

Re: Early Financial Independence. - Healthcare costs

I have to say that a cost of $240/month for a couple , i.e. two people sounds awfully low. Where did you get that number? Is it an actual quote? One good thing about the ACA is that it is now possible to get some kind of actual estimate for some range of reasonable policies. You should actually log ...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin
Replies: 19
Views: 1848

Re: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin

Well, he's been careful to hedge his statements with qualifiers like "very hard" and "deceptively difficult." I always read "very hard" as meaning "I actually think it's impossible myself but I want to keep some wiggle room," but, of course, that's reading between the lines. This 2016 paper, since i...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yield too low, how about high yield stock?
Replies: 24
Views: 1760

Re: Bond yield too low, how about high yield stock?

Bonds are legal contracts to pay you specific numbers of dollars on specific dates. The number of dollars does not change with the fluctuating market value of the bond; even if the value of the bond goes down, it still pays the same number of dollars with every coupon. The issuer must pay you if it ...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin
Replies: 19
Views: 1848

Re: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin

According to the booster of any asset class, that asset class is always great. If it is doing well, there you are. Told you so. If it is doing poorly, then it is "cheap," expected return is high, and the asset class must surely be on the verge of a big comeback. Asness cleverly justifies factor timi...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The hidden cost of Fidelity’s ZERO funds
Replies: 66
Views: 5561

Re: The hidden cost of Fidelity’s ZERO funds

...THANK YOU for the detailed response. This was very interesting. I regret that I accidentally spread misinformation but I'm glad that this forum turned this into a learning opportunity... It often does. As an old Internet saying goes--"Ward Cunningham's Law"--"The best way to get the right answer...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash
Replies: 38
Views: 2609

Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

During 2008-2009 my stock allocation was low enough that my wife and I did not place any sell orders. My wife and I were both onboard with the plan of, uh, freezing like a deer in the headlights. And yes, I played fair, I made sure she knew how the number of dollars, listed on the brokerage statemen...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?
Replies: 51
Views: 4778

Re: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?

What if a Boglehead and his nest egg instantly poofed into existence (like the sperm whale in Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy) at the top in 1929 ready to retire? Is that supposed to be a realistic scenario? No, it isn't. Your point is that statistics based on buying at a top are not much more tha...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?
Replies: 41
Views: 5384

Re: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?

With regard to SIPC, I don't see how they are involved at all. The SIPC provides what I call "statement insurance." They guarantee that if a brokerage says you have 100 shares of Acme, you really have 100 shares of Acme. More precisely, that the brokerage has 100 shares of Acme somewhere, and accoun...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Only buying global stocks at all-time highs beats buy-and-hold
Replies: 11
Views: 1815

Re: Only buying global stocks at all-time highs beats buy-and-hold

Even taking this at face value, it is incorrect to say "Only buying global stocks at all-time highs beats buy-and-hold." If it can be shown that someone put this strategy in writing publicly, and verifiably, in 1926, and then actually followed it up through the present, one could say "Only buying gl...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance Default
Replies: 13
Views: 1219

Re: Long Term Care Insurance Default

Also, a quick web search will usually turn up the insurer's "financial strength" ratings on the insurer's own website. For example, I happen to have long-term care insurance from John Hancock. A web search on John Hancock financial strength turns up a "John Hancock fact sheet" which, in turn, shows:...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance Default
Replies: 13
Views: 1219

Re: Long Term Care Insurance Default

Insurance is governed by state law, so the details are different in every state. You need to go to this website: NOLHGA, the National Association of Life and Health Guaranty Associations , and, in particular go to Choose Your State Association . The guaranty association that serves you is the one in...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The hidden cost of Fidelity’s ZERO funds
Replies: 66
Views: 5561

Re: The hidden cost of Fidelity’s ZERO funds

The blog posting says That means FZROX (and SWTSX) are sitting on dividends for up to a year before releasing that cash to the investor. I don't think so. I think that's nonsense. It's not "sitting on them" in the sense of holding them in cash, in some way that benefits Fidelity at the expense of fu...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maximize 1 Day at Disney
Replies: 48
Views: 2655

Re: Maximize 1 Day at Disney

Stay flexible. 5-year-olds may have fun, but don't really appreciate the size, scale, or intensity of the park. Stay relaxed. Rest when your kid wants it. Don't insist on waiting in long lines in order to see what, for an adolescent or adult, are the big-deal attractions. Try to maximize the pleasur...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why shouldn't I buy a Dow Jones index fund instead of TSM or the S&P?
Replies: 20
Views: 1279

Re: Why shouldn't I buy a Dow Jones index fund instead of TSM or the S&P?

Total return of the DJIA, including dividends, inflation correct, 1926-2018: 6.750% Total return of the "S&P 500" and predecessors, including dividends, inflation corrected, 1926-2018: 6.94% In short, "higher performance" for the DJIA was not seen over this much longer period of time. Sources: DQYDJ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: choosing between VTSAX and VTI
Replies: 17
Views: 1186

Re: choosing between VTSAX and VTI

My flip-but-serious advice is this. Decide based on how you do investing now. If you are already holding individual stocks in your brokerage account, and you are used to trading stocks, then you will probably be happier and more comfortable using an ETF, in this case VTI. If you are accustomed to us...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?
Replies: 41
Views: 5384

Re: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?

To state the obvious, if a lot of people successfully borrow money from Robinhood and then invest it and lose it , it may be "their own money" they've lost, but it may take a long time for Robinhood to get it back. On a big enough scale that could put Robinhood under even if the legal paperwork is p...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?
Replies: 41
Views: 5384

Re: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?

So, OK, I have to ask. I assume Robinhood does charge interest for these loans? Or not? What I'm getting at is, so can you put up $4,000, borrow $1,000,000, and invest it in something like BIL (SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill ETF) or SHV (iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF)? Let's see, they've been ...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
Replies: 26
Views: 1442

Re: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.

...Will you be participating in this IPO?... I'm perfectly happy to let Vanguard's index provider for VTIAX, FTSE, decide when to add it to the index, and to let Vanguard decide how to go about buying the shares. I don't know how efficient the stock market is, but traditionally--from the 1920s righ...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend investing vs. index investing
Replies: 30
Views: 2167

Re: Dividend investing vs. index investing

If dividend ETF perform more or less about the same as index fund with less drawdown, I think it's a winner in my opinion. Is there any period where Vanguard dividend aristocrats etf underperformed the index by a large margin? I don't know "how big is large." A $10,000 investment in VIG, dividends ...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?
Replies: 41
Views: 5384

Re: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?

...I don't know whether techcrunch.com is a reliable site or not... Nor do I, nor do I know whether CNBC is... but CNBC is reporting it, too: ‘Infinite leverage’ — some Robinhood users have been trading with unlimited borrowed money. I don't know about "fintech startups" in general, but after the e...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?
Replies: 41
Views: 5384

Re: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?

...Basically what happened was the margin limit somehow was able to be bypassed... Somehow. "General Turgidson, I find this very difficult to understand. I was under the impression that I was the only one in authority to order the use of nuclear weapons." "That's right, sir, you are the only person...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability
Replies: 46
Views: 8896

Re: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability

Can you transfer your Treasury Direct bonds to another financial institution? If so, how do you do this? If they are marketable securities, such as TIPS or Treasury notes or bonds, I think so, because I did it myself. This was years ago, when it was what is now known as "Legacy Treasury Direct," bu...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you invest in Real Estate ? Why ?
Replies: 135
Views: 18201

Re: Do you invest in Real Estate ? Why ?

We own our house, but consider it to be shelter, not an investment. According to Morningstar, 4.64% of our US stocks (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund) and 4.06% of our international stocks (Vanguard Total International Stock Index) are invested in the "Real Estate" sector, so, yes, we invest ...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend investing vs. index investing
Replies: 30
Views: 2167

Re: Dividend investing vs. index investing

Dividend investing has been "all the rage" for roughly a century. It is one of a number of strategies promoted by enthusiasts, like contrarian investing, or value investing, or factor investing. There are innumerable claims that certain easily-identified categories of stock are Just Plain Better tha...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity
Replies: 13
Views: 1061

Re: Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity

And there are countless perfectly sound speculations--speculations for which there is some obvious value other than simply scarcity itself. You could convince me that X is not worthless, that X is a sounder than a lottery ticket, and that people who buy X as a speculative investment are not necessar...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interactive Brokers app: any way to get an alert when an ETF hits a rebalancing band?
Replies: 10
Views: 502

"Interactive Brokers app: any way to get an alert when an ETF hits a rebalancing band?"

I don't know. In the terminology often used in this forum, and remembering that people may not know what "IBRK" means, a better title for your question might be: Interactive Brokers app: any way to get an alert when an ETF hits a rebalancing band? You can change the thread title yourself by going to...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interactive Brokers app: any way to get an alert when an ETF hits a rebalancing band?
Replies: 10
Views: 502

Re: [IBKR] Is it possible to set an alert/alarm when one ETF is reaching a certain "% of market value" ?

??????? ETFs are supposed to track market value (NAV) closely. The premiums and discounts on ETF like VTI seem to be almost always within the range of -0.1% to +0.1% if not closer. I'm not sure what you're asking here. If VTI is trading at a discount of, say, -0.04%, that means it trading at 99.96% ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?
Replies: 51
Views: 4778

Re: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?

It was a time of enormous technological change. "Barnstormers" brought the wonders of aviation to the American public. And scheduled airline flights began in (?) 1929? There was great enthusiasm for new communication technology - radio in particular. Radio Corporation of America became the largest ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?
Replies: 51
Views: 4778

Re: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?

This was really a math and data question, not a "how should we think about it" question. It wasn't a question of spinning it--should we think of it as long and terrible, or should we think of it as being over so quickly that it wasn't actually all that bad. I've figured it out, or rather Simplegift ...