Search found 37214 matches

by nisiprius
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fundamental Axioms / Laws / Principles of Investing
Replies: 15
Views: 607

Re: The Fundamental Axioms / Laws / Principles of Investing

John C. Bogle had a list of six maxims, best understood in connection with longer explanations... they are in Common Sense on Mutual Funds . The explanations below are my own. 1) Invest you must. [I.e. the risk of "not putting your money to work" is larger than the risk of volatility] 2) Time is you...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Market Cycle of Emotions
Replies: 9
Views: 561

Re: The Market Cycle of Emotions

As depicted, it's close to a perfect sine wave, and I'd say we are somewhere between 132° and 138°. <---Note: irony.
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Markets Indeed
Replies: 21
Views: 1546

Re: Efficient Markets Indeed

Investors frequently make stupid mistakes due to ticker-symbol or name confusion. It's not rare. People have bought ZOOM instead of ZM, "Tweeter" instead of "Twitter," "Auris Medical Holding AG" instead of "Auris Health," "Oculus Vision Tech" instead of "Oculus VR," "Raptor Pharmaceutical" instead o...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

...This is diametrically opposed to the behavior of long term financial markets which, while allowing for bear markets, go up over time... Except when they go to zero, because once they've fallen to zero, they've fallen and they can't get up. Since 1900, this has happened in 2 out of 23 national st...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 2994

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing

In Stay the Course (2019), pp. 93-4, John C. Bogle notes that In 1989, I gave a speech... promising that the creation of separate growth and value index funds "awaits only the development of soundly-constructed... index. Standard & Poor's Corporation introduced both indexes in 1992. We wasted little...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 211
Views: 16834

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

This fund has still only attracted 5 million dollars. That *seems* low, but I’ll admit that I don’t know what a reasonable expectation would be at this point. Well, it is on the ETF Deathwatch list for March, 2019. It was first listed in January, 2019. ETFs get a free pass on their first six months...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 47
Views: 2907

Re: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario

...I'm doubtful that either of those things have ever happened. Can you point to an example of the US forbidding transfers to a country with hyperinflation as a retaliatory measure?... Something that sounds like this is happening right now with Venezuela. But only at a high bank-to-bank level, not ...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

I personally think a 5% failure rate is too high--too high for a planning number; I personally like 3% failure I disagree. You disagree that I personally think 5% is too high? Sorry, I don't like it when other people tell me what my personal risk tolerance should be. It does not bother me that ther...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

I agree on the use of annuities. (That is: SPIAs, aka "income annuities." Pure insurance). I just want to make one point. Traditional SWR studies used 30 year time horizons. "Living to age 100" implies a 35-year time horizon. It's not that big a difference. For example, Vanguard Target Retirement In...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consensus on I Bonds for 2019?
Replies: 58
Views: 8044

Re: Consensus on I Bonds for 2019?

I've done a reversal on I bonds because I didn't realize, until I read a thread in this forum and checked for myself, that electronic I bonds using a "WITH" registration don't work the way I thought they did. One of the appeals of paper savings bonds is that if they are "co-owned," they truly are ow...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In which companies do you own a single share, or token amount, of stock?
Replies: 68
Views: 3399

Re: In which companies do you own a single share, or token amount, of stock?

1) I bought a single share of Target stock, in a presentation frame, as a gift for a granddaughter years ago, when she was maybe thirteen or so. The share price was about $50, but the sort of quasi-scam web-based company in the business of providing grandparents with single shares of grandkid-friend...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 2994

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing

...Stocks and bonds both have positive average returns, so both can deliver positive returns while making a negative contribution to their correlation... Or as someone said during 2008-2009 in this forum, "Low correlation means that during a crash, you get to watch all your asset classes fall at di...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UC funds approximation of the total stock market
Replies: 8
Views: 701

Re: UC funds approximation of the total stock market

With regard to "UC DOM EQ INDEX Large Cap Blend (tracks the 3000 TF index)," "large cap blend" doesn't mean that it is "a large cap fund" that needs small caps. The "3000" number tells me that it is, almost certainly, a total market fund. Sabtastic indicates that it tracks a "tobacco free" version o...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 2994

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing

In the sense that they all have risk, and fractal-like chaotic ups and downs, perhaps market beta is like other factors. However, there are many ways in which it is qualitatively different from the others. If anyone were to actually say it is "just another factor" (Larry Swedroe does not say that in...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Indexed Annuities
Replies: 22
Views: 1091

Re: Fixed Indexed Annuities

...I don't think even they can understand all the complexity that goes into formulating these monsters... FINRA, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority made these points about complexity in their alert: Equity-Indexed Annuities: A Complex Choice Sales of equity-indexed annuities (EIAs)—also kn...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My life insurance company wants to "help me save money"
Replies: 26
Views: 2192

Re: My life insurance company wants to "help me save money"

Can't you get five-year renewable term any more these days? That's what we used. We expected it to increase in price on every renewal date. And we planned to let it lapse at about age 60, which is what we did. We actually had several policies and we let them lapse in sequence, as our savings increas...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Indexed Annuities
Replies: 22
Views: 1091

Re: Fixed Indexed Annuities

I suggest not arguing with this "person you know." Simply engaging with him on the topic gives him a chance to do all the things salespeople are best at. They can talk you into a situation that amounts to agreeing that you must buy the product unless you can convince him that it is bad! Don't be dis...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Indexed Annuities
Replies: 22
Views: 1091

Re: Fixed Indexed Annuities

These used to be called "equity-indexed annuities." They got a very bad name. The product itself is bad enough. There's a book, The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll Ever Need: The Good, the Flawed, the Bad, and the Ugly , Larry Swedroe and Jared Kizer, and the table of contents tells you...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?
Replies: 62
Views: 4385

Re: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?

I see no reason to disagree with the dividend discount theory of stock prices, which is, as you say, "Stock prices reflect the expected net present value of all future earnings." The thing that you are missing is that corporations do not pay out all of those earnings as dividends--not even so-called...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which combination best approximates total US market?
Replies: 4
Views: 423

Re: Which combination best approximates total US market?

I'm trying to determine my best option for approximating the total US stock market with the available funds in my 403(b). If you could choose would you use: A) 81% Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VIIIX) 4% Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund Admiral Shares (VIMAX) 15% Vanguard ...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3730
Views: 1073905

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Spook: Science Tackles the Afterlife, by Mary Roach. Excellent.
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can TIAA Traditional be my whole "bond" allocation?
Replies: 25
Views: 2691

Re: Can TIAA Traditional be my whole "bond" allocation?

I just tracked TIAA Traditional as a separate category in my spreadsheet. Years after I started doing this, I found that this is basically what TIAA wealth advisors do, they recognize four categories: stocks, bonds, cash, and "insured." I then used the spreadsheet to strike different totals, and mos...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No need to file a tax extension form?
Replies: 27
Views: 1706

Re: No need to file a tax extension form?

The extension doesn't give you any extra time to pay. It's not a free way to defer taxes. What the extension does is let you pay based on a good-faith guesstimate, perhaps with a decent safety margin to make sure the errors are on the side of overpayment. And then it takes all the pressure off to fi...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international small cap matter?
Replies: 14
Views: 1626

Re: Does international small cap matter?

Hungrywave, there are two separate discussions going on here. Let me try to summarize. 1) The difference between two international index funds, such as VFWIX and VGTSX, whose main difference is that one of them lacks small-caps, is tiny. There's every reason to expect the difference between FZILX an...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Serious Money" book - Free download
Replies: 17
Views: 2194

Re: "Serious Money" book - Free download

Thanks, Rick. If it was "written incognito," did you use a pseudonym, and, if so, what? I'm curious.
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you have plenty of money, why not 100% stocks in retirement?
Replies: 107
Views: 6948

Re: If you have plenty of money, why not 100% stocks in retirement?

The answer to "why not 100% stocks?" does not depend on whether you have "plenty of money." You could just as well say "If you have plenty of money, why not 100% bonds?" If you have plenty of money, then it doesn't matter which you do. The answer simply indicates whether you have decreasing relative...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone have a child model?
Replies: 42
Views: 4488

Re: Anyone have a child model?

I wouldn't dream of it. I try not to be too judgmental, it's well within the range of things people can choose to do and I don't need to like it. But I'm a little judgmental. I think it is inappropriate for parents to try to make serious money out of their infants or children. And the presence of mo...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international small cap matter?
Replies: 14
Views: 1626

Re: Does international small cap matter?

How much has it mattered in the past? VFWIX, Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US, without small-caps, blue. VGTSX, Vanguard Total International Stock index, with small-caps--and a skosh more midcaps than VFWIX--orange. Source https://imgur.com/xuhzPfA.png https://imgur.com/nBE4X8U.png Basically, small-cap...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5952

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

I have no idea what to make of it but that's a very interesting post, Simplegift.
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs vs. Mutual Funds ("Bogleheads Mentioned in the NYT")
Replies: 59
Views: 7999

ETFs vs. Mutual Funds ("Bogleheads Mentioned in the NYT")

For the record, I've used ETFs myself. I didn't mean to cast aspersions on Bogleheads who use ETFs in reasonable ways--not for short-term speculation. Typically, at brokerage-and-mutual-fund-company X, the only index mutual funds available without a transaction fee are X's own funds. If you want one...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on this Forbes article? "Why Most Index Funds And ETFs Are Not Good Investments"
Replies: 65
Views: 9491

Re: Thoughts on this Forbes article? "Why Most Index Funds And ETFs Are Not Good Investments"

...It's important to remember that media outlets like those have one superseding goal: to sell advertising space... Tangential but related. I once asked someone whether some particularly annoying ads were actually effective at selling product, and, if not, why people ran them. He was someone who ha...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 121
Views: 8575

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

Whatever you believe is going on in the background, we have not had "prolonged high inflation." We haven't had high inflation since Volcker. There hasn't been a hint of inflation in the last twenty years. There’s an adjective missing in the last quoted sentence, I think. We have inflation of some s...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who were wondering what really happened...
Replies: 17
Views: 6492

Re: For those who were wondering what really happened...

Thank you very much. I admit to curiosity and some concern, particularly about the surprisingly small size of your full-time RV.
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 105
Views: 7959

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

...I don't see bitcoin ever being adopted for everyday payments or for anything that we can use a credit/debit card for. It doesn't need to be and that's not its use case... Bitcoin advocates, including Satoshi Nakamoto, explicitly said that was its use case, until it proved to be useless for that ...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What definition of income do you use to figure out the percent you pay in taxes
Replies: 19
Views: 1363

Re: What definition of income do you use to figure out the percent you pay in taxes

I go to Form 1040 and divide "Total Tax" by "Total Income."

Lines 15 and 6 on the 2018 Form 1040, respectively.

That is, my definition of "income" is "everything that I report as 'income' on Form 1040."

It seems to me that anything else is overthinking things.
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 121
Views: 8575

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

...Oh, we've had prolonged high inflation. Just not where we usually look for it... No, we haven't. That's just not an accurate way of expressing it. What you mean is that you believe that there there is stored up tension within the financial system that must inevitably be released as inflation, so...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quality control for tax returns
Replies: 15
Views: 1707

Re: Quality control for tax returns

I prepare my own returns with H&R Block software. However, I do a check afterwards. The way I check is this. I figure that the mortal sin is failing to declare all your income. So after I've finished, I print out a draft copy of the Form 1040 (all eight pages of it, this year), and I go to a spreads...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs vs. Mutual Funds ("Bogleheads Mentioned in the NYT")
Replies: 59
Views: 7999

ETFs vs. Mutual Funds ("Bogleheads Mentioned in the NYT")

Someone who uses ETFs has objected to my posting, as being insulting to anybody who invests in ETFs (which, for the record, includes me--though not currently). Accordingly, I'm deleting it.
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 121
Views: 8575

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

...Oh, we've had prolonged high inflation. Just not where we usually look for it... No, we haven't. That's just not an accurate way of expressing it. What you mean is that you believe that there there is stored up tension within the financial system that must inevitably be released as inflation, so...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 105
Views: 7959

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

...I do think BTC has viability as it remains the most established crypto, but blockchain tech itself is still being developed for other applications, and the jury's out on which Shakespeare will emerge. This. The "store of value" argument remains tenuous given volatility. This, too. The expectatio...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Junk bonds undervalued due to boglehead popularity?
Replies: 47
Views: 4009

Re: Junk bonds undervalued due to boglehead popularity?

Try some actual PortfolioVisualizer backtests. Use some proposed portfolio that really makes sense to you, that includes "high-yield" bonds, then replace them with a mixture of about 2/3rds investment-grade bonds, 1/3rd stocks, and see how much difference it makes. For example, Portfolio 1 is the re...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest $50k, how to wisely invest $50k
Replies: 13
Views: 1605

Re: Where to invest $50k, how to wisely invest $50k

Yes, it's a good investment route for retirement savings, or for other long-term (say 15-20 years) savings. It's fine, wise, etc. Most of your ticker symbols will have changed, because Vanguard has lowered the minimum purchase on Admiral funds to $3,000 (and closed off new purchases of the older, sl...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 105
Views: 7959

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

I'm not a believer in Crypto currency as such, but I am willing to bet on the future of blockchain. IMO, the best pure-play way to invest in blockchain currently is Ethereum. I don't see it as a cryptocurrency, its a blockchain platform. Ethereum clearly has a long way to go before it will actually...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 121
Views: 8575

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

What are the examples in which commodities exposure, in the form of "commodities" funds and ETFs available to retail investors, would have improved a traditional portfolio? This might be the impasse where a lot of us are. I, personally, came to trust Tyler at portfoliocharts who's somehow using dat...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 121
Views: 8575

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

Portfolio 1: a three-fund 60/40 portfolio with 40% stocks international, i.e. 36% Total Stock, 24% Total International Stock, 40% Total Bond. Portfolio 2: make room for 15% PIMCO Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund, PCRIX, by cutting down the other funds to 85% of their previous allocation (red). Po...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 121
Views: 8575

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

What has been the long term correlation between commodities and inflation? I got inflation from measuringworth.com (because it goes back earlier than 1913, although I don't know where they got their data). I got prices of various materials from the USGS . I just picked a few items at random that se...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bose QC25 or QC35
Replies: 19
Views: 962

Re: Was going to purchase Bose QC25, buy fakespot gave it an F, help

Oddly enough, we bought a Bose product--not a QC25, but the "hearphones"--a few months ago because the only way to judge what we thought of it was to try it. Their return policy is Satisfaction is guaranteed on all Bose® Products purchased by consumers directly from Bose. We want you to be thrilled,...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Torment from the IRS
Replies: 16
Views: 2294

Re: Torment from the IRS

Must be a new rule. My $100M+ checks to the IRS have cleared no problem. Ah, you forgot 22-hctaC. The rule says they won't accept a single check for over $100 million, but 22-hctaC says that if you sent them a single check for over $100 million, you such an important person that they will always wa...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 105
Views: 7959

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Well if you do get in, be mindful about protecting your cryptocurrency. I know some people who have lost a lot cause they misplaced their key phrase that grants them access to their funds. It's not just "some people." It's staggering. The stated numbers vary, reliability is unclear, and some of the...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 105
Views: 7959

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

HawkeyePierce wrote Note that retailers accepting Bitcoin aren't actually taking possession of Bitcoin in the majority of cases. They're using services like Bitpay or Coinbase Commerce to accept Bitcoin from customers but immediately convert it to regular currency (dollars, euros, whatever). It's no...