Search found 3424 matches

by Random Walker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage of US Stocks is traded by Pros vs Public?
Replies: 4
Views: 493

Re: What Percentage of US Stocks is traded by Pros vs Public?

I think the number is >=90% trading between the big firms. That means one firm’s computers backed by it’s PhDs, whizzes, algorithms, sharks trading with the other firms computers backed by it’s PhDs, whizzes, algorithms and sharks. One firm selling and the other firm buying, and both firms think the...
by Random Walker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 77
Views: 5396

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

I actually made the transition from DIY BH to advisor path. It started with a focus on tax managed value funds and more efficient tax loss harvesting. It then evolved to a more general focus on improved portfolio efficiency and avoiding behavioral errors. The costs are certain and the benefits only ...
by Random Walker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 86
Views: 10597

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Well, they seem to be marketing at least one of these multifactors to us now (VFLQ): https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-industry-perspective/vanguard-liquidity-factor-investings-hidden-gem What would the benchmark be for that fund? Mid Cap? Can't even do a comparison on M* via the chart function - do...
by Random Walker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Reviewing 2018’s Predictions
Replies: 2
Views: 501

Larry Swedroe: Reviewing 2018’s Predictions

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... swedroe-31

2018 was the first year since Larry started doing this that the consensus predictions turned out to be more accurate than not.

Dave
by Random Walker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?
Replies: 28
Views: 3033

Re: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?

I agree. A typical 60/40 portfolio has about 90% of its risk wrapped up in equities. A 60/40 TSM/TBM portfolio has about 90% of its risk wrapped up in a single factor, market bets. If you perceive diversification as diversification across independent sources of return (I do), then I would follow the...
by Random Walker
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3556

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

I think longer duration bonds would have increased correlation to equities. Growth stocks, and most market cap weighted TSM portfolios are basically large growth portfolios, have some exposure to the term premium. My understanding is that if one is really taking his risk on the equity side, he shoul...
by Random Walker
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3556

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

Of course this debate is going to devolve into the "what is risk" discussion. For me, risk is more than just volatility, so using MPT techniques like efficiency frontiers and portfolio optimization based on volatility-as-risk just don't quite cut it. I agree that there is more to risk than just vol...
by Random Walker
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Historical Data Can Comfort
Replies: 6
Views: 774

Larry Swedroe: Historical Data Can Comfort

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-historical-data-can-comfort?nopaging=1 Some historical data may help prevent us from catastrophising. Two of the many statistics from the article: on average the market has a 10% drop once every three years and a 20% drop once every six year...
by Random Walker
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 5691

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

My belief is that the Value Premium will endure because human nature doesn't change. The old cycles of fear and greed. Im a big believer in value. What I like most about it is that there are both strong risk based and strong behavioral based rationale behind it. I used to think it was 90% risk and ...
by Random Walker
Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 211
Views: 33724

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Just thought I’d update a few funds since the recent decline. I looked at returns 8/31/18-12/31/18 S&P 500 -13.6% Russell 2K -22.5% LENDX -1.1% SRRIX -9.9% AVRPX -4.0% QSPRX -4.5% 1/n above alts -4.9% Not bad for diversifies with equity like expected returns. SRRIX got hit by big fires, expect AVRPX...
by Random Walker
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Moderate Your Market Expectations
Replies: 2
Views: 465

Larry Swedroe:Moderate Your Market Expectations

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-moderate-your-market-expectations?nopaging=1 I posted Jared Kizer’s original essay on this titled S&P 500 Goes Supernova a few weeks ago. Personally, I’ve taken action on this information over the last several years. Not only is the mean exp...
by Random Walker
Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5758

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/01/07/does-the-bucket-approach-destroy-wealth?bt_ee=FTU%2FsBNf%2FLUiHMmWwiQ4s%2FPvcHZiqdidGGmLKie5LRuYO378o7HycRIbJqe0nQFi&bt_ts=1546956764657 ...Compared to static asset allocation strategies, the bucket approach underperforms mainly because the in...
by Random Walker
Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5758

Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/01/07/does-the-bucket-approach-destroy-wealth?bt_ee=FTU%2FsBNf%2FLUiHMmWwiQ4s%2FPvcHZiqdidGGmLKie5LRuYO378o7HycRIbJqe0nQFi&bt_ts=1546956764657 In this article Larry goes into significant depth on retirement planning with Monte Carlo Simulation. MCS r...
by Random Walker
Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed
Replies: 21
Views: 2746

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed

Nisiprius, I think that is mostly legalese. I know most people won’t find that a satisfactory answer, but at some point I think the investor needs to trust the organization he invests with. Even with Vanguard for example, I think their tax exempt muni bond funds are technically active funds versus i...
by Random Walker
Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed
Replies: 21
Views: 2746

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed

From my perspective, the key take-away from Ellis' original article isn't active versus passive, but avoiding errors - and the biggest error we can avoid is costs. I would invest in an active fund like Wellington or Wellesley long before I would hand over my portfolio to an investment advisor for a...
by Random Walker
Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed
Replies: 21
Views: 2746

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed

I've always had a mild problem with Larry quoting the SPIVA reports. He has made it clear that he believes that traditional indexes are inadequate, initially arguing for small and value tilts and now for factor investing. He has always said that US total stock market was only exposed to beta and be...
by Random Walker
Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed
Replies: 21
Views: 2746

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed

...take what the markets give us, keep costs low... Which strategy is better described by your words above? a) Total market investing b) Factor investing Isn't factor investing an attempt to improve on what the markets give us, in some way, rather than just taking what the markets give us? Words ab...
by Random Walker
Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed
Replies: 21
Views: 2746

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed

The professional tennis we see on tv is literally a different sport from the one we see in public parks. The pros hit amazing shots and win points with those amazing shots. In regular tennis for us amateurs, the winner is generally the guy who makes fewer unforced errors. Winning the Loser’s Game is...
by Random Walker
Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed
Replies: 21
Views: 2746

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-losers-game-reaffirmed Larry reviews the December SPIVA reports. These S&P Index versus Active reports don’t just compare active to appropriate passive benchmarks, they also look at the persistence of active outperformance when it occurs. A...
by Random Walker
Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 5691

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

Here's a question - in terms of minimizing whole-portfolio volatility, wouldn't separate allocations to individual factors work better than a single allocation to SV or a multifactor fund? You'd get the sum of several hopefully-not-highly-correlated random variables, which should have a lower SD th...
by Random Walker
Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed
Replies: 21
Views: 2746

Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-losers-game-reaffirmed Larry reviews the December SPIVA reports. These S&P Index versus Active reports don’t just compare active to appropriate passive benchmarks, they also look at the persistence of active outperformance when it occurs. As...
by Random Walker
Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 128
Views: 11021

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

I don’t know, maybe I have a fundamental misunderstanding of how markets work, but if all the money was pouring into small cap the stock prices would rise , market caps increase, and there wouldn’t be any small cap stocks-just a ton of stocks with relatively similar market caps. That hasn’t happene...
by Random Walker
Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 5691

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

Typical investor, You are incorrect on most all counts. I make no assumption that the size and value factors are guaranteed to outperform. I certainly hope they do, and I think odds favor that they do over the long term. But they are risk factors, so no guarantees. They have generally been independe...
by Random Walker
Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 128
Views: 11021

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

Jack Bogle: "The beauty of owning the market is that you eliminate individual stock risk, you eliminate market sector risk, and you eliminate manager risk. -- In my view, owning the market and holding it forever is the ultimate strategy for winners." -- Best wishes. Taylor Taylor, The above quote i...
by Random Walker
Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 128
Views: 11021

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

I think it’s important to note that investing in SV for higher expected return is really only part of the story. Another important part of the story is the low correlations between market and size, between market and value, and between size and value. Market, size, and value are independent sources ...
by Random Walker
Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 5691

Re: Factor investing with one fund.

if people are worried about value underperformance, that is just more reason to diversify across all the known factors, including market beta: market, size, value, momentum, profitability/quality. Dave: Total Stock Market Index Fund includes all U.S. stock factors in one fund. Please read my "Simpl...
by Random Walker
Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Sky Isn’t Falling
Replies: 17
Views: 2070

Re: Larry Swedroe: Sky Isn’t Falling

Think it’s called the DALBAR study. Investors underperform the funds they invest in. The skanky DALBAR study of ill-repute? C'mon, that study has been trashed so many times, nobody believes it anymore, much less cites it. It's been relegated to the trash bin of Fake News for years now. (Perhaps you...
by Random Walker
Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Sky Isn’t Falling
Replies: 17
Views: 2070

Re: Larry Swedroe: Sky Isn’t Falling

Isn't the idea of "panic selling" really a myth? Didn't Vanguard report that the 401(k) plans that they managed are steady as a rock and only low single digit percentages of client make any changes? I'd like to have some hard facts that retail investors really do any of this bad stuff that everyone...
by Random Walker
Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Sky Isn’t Falling
Replies: 17
Views: 2070

Larry Swedroe: Sky Isn’t Falling

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-sky-isnt-falling?nopaging=1 Excellent article to help keep our heads on straight during the current market turmoil. We may have a tendency to “catastrophize” and commit “portfolio suicide” with panicked selling. To help avoid this, Larry rev...
by Random Walker
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Factor funds: Active or Passive?

Yeah I think the distinction for them is they consider cap weighted style funds passive but something weighted by another factor other than price in its market segment would be active. So any smart beta product is active in their view I actually wouldn't mind defining everything that is not cap wei...
by Random Walker
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15562

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

I always find it interesting to note when posts pop up. This post questioning Int'l vs US pops up after a decade of underperformance. Similar threads pop up re Value when it was outperforming. Now everyone thinks the tilt alpha is gone. I recall ~12-14 years ago when Int'l was beating (both VINEX a...
by Random Walker
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swap trades avoids taxes on dividends?
Replies: 3
Views: 196

Re: Swap trades avoids taxes on dividends?

My advisor just sold one fund and bought a second fund to tax loss harvest. Before the 30 day wash sale date came, he sold the second fund for a third to avoid the dividend. I thought that was a pretty clever trick, and something I wouldn’t have done on my own. Trading around dividends can add some ...
by Random Walker
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15562

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

I always find it interesting to note when posts pop up. This post questioning Int'l vs US pops up after a decade of underperformance. Similar threads pop up re Value when it was outperforming. Now everyone thinks the tilt alpha is gone. I recall ~12-14 years ago when Int'l was beating (both VINEX a...
by Random Walker
Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Factor funds: Active or Passive?

Sorry. Vanguard disagrees : Factor-based funds are a form of active management.* They offer the potential to achieve specific risk and return objectives by purposely and explicitly "tilting" portfolios toward certain stock characteristics, like recent momentum, higher quality, or lower stock prices...
by Random Walker
Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Safety Flags In Investing
Replies: 1
Views: 597

Larry Swedroe: No Safety Flags In Investing

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-no-safety-flags-investing?nopaging=1 Excellent article with lots of sound advice regarding times like these last few months. References to Taleb, Buffett, lessons from previous bear markets, wall of worry, Investment policy statement, “simpl...
by Random Walker
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Factor funds: Active or Passive?

Sorry. Vanguard disagrees : Factor-based funds are a form of active management.* They offer the potential to achieve specific risk and return objectives by purposely and explicitly "tilting" portfolios toward certain stock characteristics, like recent momentum, higher quality, or lower stock prices...
by Random Walker
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

How can factor investing be agnostic to security selection when that is the definition of value, you are selecting the group of stocks that have certain price/value characteristics. Then you are further refining the sample based upon stocks that you "know" will underperform (IPOs & bankrupt stocks ...
by Random Walker
Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

This business about factor timing sort of brings up a relevant Bogleheads issue though. Some on this board view factor investing as active and others view it as passive. I think that an article highlighting difficulty in timing factors implicitly shows that one can be consistently passively exposed ...
by Random Walker
Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

Sharpe since 1998: DFA SCV: 0.47 VG SCV: 0.46 DFA has indeed delivered higher returns (and larger drawdowns), because it’s taking more risk. Yes, but that alone I not the issue. What matters is how the component funds mix in a portfolio. The Sharpe ratio of the portfolio matters more than the Sharp...
by Random Walker
Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

I know Swedroe is a very smart guy but there are some skeptics about factor investing. This is link to Morningstar article from yesterday entitled "The Jury is Still Out on Factor Timing": https://www.morningstar.com/articles/906223/the-jury-is-still-out-on-factor-timing.html I admittedly did not r...
by Random Walker
Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

This current factor fad seems like active in sheep's clothing (certainly momentum, aka 'market timing', can often become active on steroids). This too shall pass? What would it take for you to consider factors more than a fad? We have extensive historical data and out of sample tests provided by di...
by Random Walker
Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

Just one more note. So far, a 60/40 U.S. portfolio hasn't ever failed over the long-term. The success rate, so far, is 100%. So I'm not sure why I need to increase my likelihood of succeeding. Of course, that's just "so far". I suppose it could fail going forward. But so could factor investing. Pre...
by Random Walker
Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

Like all market information, this data nullifies itself by being publicly known and exploited. I certainly agree that markets are ruthlesssly efficient. Factors may well take haircuts. But if a factor is due to risk, then it's premium should not be eradicated. Behavioral factors are certainly much ...
by Random Walker
Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

This current factor fad seems like active in sheep's clothing (certainly momentum, aka 'market timing', can often become active on steroids). This too shall pass? What would it take for you to consider factors more than a fad? We have extensive historical data and out of sample tests provided by di...
by Random Walker
Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

I think the point is that people may feel more comfortable “failing conventionally”: their own portfolio tanks when everyone else’s does as well. But failing conventionally, may well still be failing! In the effort to meet our financial goals, diversifying across sources of return may increase the l...
by Random Walker
Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/swedroe-investing-uncomfortably Active management, hedge funds, market timing are not a winning formula. Passively and doggedly spreading one’s bets across the factors that have been shown to provide returns over time can be a winning formula. Conventio...
by Random Walker
Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Intelligent Investor
Replies: 16
Views: 1378

Re: The Intelligent Investor

I think so. Buffett learned from Graham, and Buffett’s success has basically been attributed to value investing with quality/profitability overlay. One could buy passive funds that invest in this manner, be patient generally, and occasionally be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others...
by Random Walker
Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bad News In Perspective
Replies: 4
Views: 1115

Larry Swedroe: Bad News In Perspective

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-bad-news-perspective?nopaging=1 There’s lots of good economic news. The current economic expansion is 10 years old, and many people (that would be me) believe bull markets and economic expansions die of old age, but apparently that’s not tru...
by Random Walker
Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Intelligent Advisor Podcast
Replies: 1
Views: 415

Larry Swedroe: Intelligent Advisor Podcast

https://soundcloud.com/user-421101742/the-intelligent-adviser-ep-12 This is an about 35 minute interview of Larry. He discusses evidence based investing and passive asset class funds versus pure index funds. Discusses active versus passive; smart active can outperform, but it’s all about the cost hu...