Search found 4501 matches

by Random Walker
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 151
Views: 17721

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

Not sure why this fund is even discussed. From inception 10/13/2013 a $10K investment is now worth $9088.26 vs. $20,717.34 if the same money had gone into the S&P 500 (VFIAX). It seems apparent to me some people made big money from this fund, unfortunately that did not include the investors. Those ...
by Random Walker
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 151
Views: 17721

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

Not sure why this fund is even discussed. From inception 10/13/2013 a $10K investment is now worth $9088.26 vs. $20,717.34 if the same money had gone into the S&P 500 (VFIAX). It seems apparent to me some people made big money from this fund, unfortunately that did not include the investors. Those ...
by Random Walker
Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expectations of factor investing from a factor regression
Replies: 46
Views: 2368

Re: Expectations of factor investing from a factor regression

I believe international small value is a particularly good diversifier. I think small companies are more subject to the zigs and zags of their local economies than large multinational corporations, and thus less likely to be highly correlated to the remainder of most people’s equity heavy portfolios...
by Random Walker
Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 151
Views: 17721

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

To a casual observer it appears that most are simply guessing what this fund is actually doing, even its supporters seems to only speculate on the AQR implementation, and what is in the attribution report explaining its latest performance. So, do those that buy into this strategy essentially ignore...
by Random Walker
Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 151
Views: 17721

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

To a casual observer it appears that most are simply guessing what this fund is actually doing, even its supporters seems to only speculate on the AQR implementation, and what is in the attribution report explaining its latest performance. So, do those that buy into this strategy essentially ignore...
by Random Walker
Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 151
Views: 17721

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

...As for recent performance, you'd have to ask someone who gets the attribution analysis updates but it surely has something to do with value underperformance as others have suggested. AQR chooses to list this fund among its "alternatives" fund, not among its "equities fund." (Specifically, "alter...
by Random Walker
Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 151
Views: 17721

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

...As for recent performance, you'd have to ask someone who gets the attribution analysis updates but it surely has something to do with value underperformance as others have suggested. AQR chooses to list this fund among its "alternatives" fund, not among its "equities fund." (Specifically, "alter...
by Random Walker
Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 151
Views: 17721

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

No question the fund has hit a rough patch, but it all depends on what your timeframe is and if you understand what you're investing in. Those of us with a reasonable allocation to QSPIX (I'm at 7.5%) are usually factor investing lifers who appreciate what the fund aims to do. It is now at what mus...
by Random Walker
Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doesn’t Recent Small Value Underperformance Create It’s Own Argument For Incorporation Into A Portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 1237

Re: Doesn’t Recent Small Value Underperformance Create It’s Own Argument For Incorporation Into A Portfolio?

Vulcan wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:35 am
This thread should be merged with one of those "why international" ones :D
Same sort of issue :-)

Dave
by Random Walker
Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doesn’t Recent Small Value Underperformance Create It’s Own Argument For Incorporation Into A Portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 1237

Re: Doesn’t Recent Small Value Underperformance Create It’s Own Argument For Incorporation Into A Portfolio?

What matters is the portfolio as a whole. How an investment mixes in a portfolio depends on expected returns, volatility, correlations, covariances, and costs. Looking at the performance of TSM and SV over last six months, they look highly correlated, but the magnitude of the drop has been way bigge...
by Random Walker
Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doesn’t Recent Small Value Underperformance Create It’s Own Argument For Incorporation Into A Portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 1237

Doesn’t Recent Small Value Underperformance Create It’s Own Argument For Incorporation Into A Portfolio?

A big part of efficient portfolio construction is the incorporation of less than perfectly correlated investments, each subject to its own unique risks. Doesn’t the recent underperformance of SV compared to TSM and LG reveal it’s increased exposure to risk and it’s exposure to unique risks? Could it...
by Random Walker
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: 1/3rd of investors over 65 sold ALL their equities between Feb 20-May 15th.
Replies: 81
Views: 8188

Re: WSJ: 1/3rd of investors over 65 sold ALL their equities between Feb 20-May 15th.

Amazing the level of behavioral errors that are still made by investors.... unfortunately for older investors there's not much time for a do- over. https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-approaching-retirement-face-painful-decisions-11592213401?mod=mhp This just makes me wonder if such group of peo...
by Random Walker
Sat May 23, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 46
Views: 2862

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

I’ve been invested in LENDX, and it has performed well. The loans are mainly small business, student, personal I think. They are short duration. The one big expected hit to the fund would be a spike in unemployment, and that is what we have seen big time with Covid-19. The fund though has held up qu...
by Random Walker
Fri May 22, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7319

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb called Asness 'disgusting "AQR" luantic' ... I've yet to see the other side of the exchange but that's nuts. Already losing some respect here. Seems like COVID is driving even the smartest folks nuts. :twisted: Taleb has never really been a diplomat and this isn't new twitter behavior for him...
by Random Walker
Fri May 22, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7319

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb called Asness 'disgusting "AQR" luantic' ... I've yet to see the other side of the exchange but that's nuts. Already losing some respect here. Seems like COVID is driving even the smartest folks nuts. :twisted: Taleb has never really been a diplomat and this isn't new twitter behavior for him...
by Random Walker
Mon May 18, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142828

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To avoid recency bias, I know I should trust 100 years of data more than the last 10 years of data. I find this issue very interesting. Longer time frames should carry more weight than shorter ones, but the world does change, and shorter more recent time frames may be more relevant. I think it’s va...
by Random Walker
Sun May 17, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 6089

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

I've recently come to think that all of the talk around Sequence of Returns is really unnecessary. The whole premise is rather contrived: Given a particular set of returns , the sequence in which they occur can affect your final wealth (assuming some non-proportional withdrawals and additions, else...
by Random Walker
Sun May 17, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 6089

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

Has anybody considered SORR as business or credit cycle risk? Consider that most will hit their # (25x expenses) during the later half of a bull market. It just happens that way because of business cycles. You could throw in black swan events as bear cycles also. So, if you retire when you reach 25...
by Random Walker
Sun May 17, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 6089

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

Your best solution is to de-risk your portfolio as you approach early retirement, not after the fact. Definitely! We can’t control the markets, but we can control how we respond to them. When the markets have been generous and retirement is less than a decade away, maybe consider taking more risk o...
by Random Walker
Sun May 17, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142828

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

This is just for fun as I doubt anyone would actually go all in on SCV, but Ben Felix recently mentioned that using 4% withdrawals in 30 year periods going back to 1926, 70% US SCV with 30% 5 year treasuries had no failures. It also has a thrilling max drawdown of 77%. This was an aside in a discus...
by Random Walker
Sun May 17, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 6089

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

Great post on important topic! The typical 60/40 TSM/TBM portfolio has 85-90% of its risk wrapped up in a single factor, the market factor. The illustration reveals the importance of diversifying across sources of return as broadly as possible, narrowing the portfolio volatility, and decreasing the ...
by Random Walker
Mon May 11, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142828

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

As of 4/30, the 1-year return for Vanguard's Small Value is -23.35%, while the 1-year return for Vanguard's Small Growth is -5.04%. (Small Growth is up 4% for May and Small Value is flat). Although 1-year returns don't mean a whole lot, that is an astonishing difference for US small companies. Look...
by Random Walker
Mon May 11, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142828

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

As of 4/30, the 1-year return for Vanguard's Small Value is -23.35%, while the 1-year return for Vanguard's Small Growth is -5.04%. (Small Growth is up 4% for May and Small Value is flat). Although 1-year returns don't mean a whole lot, that is an astonishing difference for US small companies. Look...
by Random Walker
Sat May 09, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA
Replies: 48
Views: 3574

Re: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA

I have come to the same exact conclusion. When the market is up, I have too much in bonds. When it’s down, I have too much in stocks. That discomfort means we’re in the right range. I think we’re in good company. I think Bogle himself said something to the effect that he’s 50/50 and about half the t...
by Random Walker
Mon May 04, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8054

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

What I want.... is explicit percentages and std deviations of expected returns for those alts. 6% return and standard deviation about 10% I think are reasonable numbers Dave Thank you Dave, this is helpful. I'm not trying to be difficult, but my mind finds "equity like returns" to be counter-intuit...
by Random Walker
Sun May 03, 2020 11:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Advice When You Live in a No-Income Tax State?
Replies: 10
Views: 815

Re: Investment Advice When You Live in a No-Income Tax State?

Municipal bonds are generally not subject to federal tax, but are subject to state taxes unless you buy bonds of state you live in. If you live in a tax free state, you can use municipal bonds and pay no tax on the income. I’m sure this can be true with a ladder of individual bonds. It might be over...
by Random Walker
Sun May 03, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation Based on Asset Amount
Replies: 14
Views: 870

Re: Asset Allocation Based on Asset Amount

Yes, I’m not sure about specific numbers, but it’s a step in the right thought direction I think. We can’t control the markets. But we can respond to them. We can look at past returns, current valuations, future expected returns to adjust our AA towards the retirement AA over time. Stocks have a sta...
by Random Walker
Sun May 03, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8054

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

One common theme of Larry’s has been “hyperdiversification”. As stated above, he has been promoting highest quality bonds for a very long time. I’m a client of his firm and think my portfolio is pretty typical of the hyperdiversification he discusses: 40% equities evenly split US/Int and heavily til...
by Random Walker
Sun May 03, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

I spent a long time thinking about introducing factor tilts into my portfolio. For me, I am pretty sure that I'd either dump my tilts or feel like an idiot if they underperformed for 20 years. I don't believe enough in the narrative of factor outperformance to resist the urge to eventually abandon ...
by Random Walker
Sun May 03, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

It's funny to see that 2 posters claim value stocks have more volatile earnings but 2 other posters argue they are stable companies. Does anyone a proof for one way or the other? I took the liberty of copying the references on value as risk from chapter 3 of Larry Swedroe’s Factor Book. I have not ...
by Random Walker
Sun May 03, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8054

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

The above mentioned alternatives (LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QSPRX) have equity like expected returns ... What I want.... is explicit percentages and std deviations of expected returns for those alts. 6% return and standard deviation about 10% I think are reasonable numbers Dave Thank you Dave, this is h...
by Random Walker
Sat May 02, 2020 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8054

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

The above mentioned alternatives (LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QSPRX) have equity like expected returns ... Please... that phrase should be banned from the forum. The only way to achieve "equity like expected returns" is with equity. Otherwise it's just marketing. Do you estimate expected returns for equit...
by Random Walker
Sat May 02, 2020 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8054

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

The above mentioned alternatives (LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QSPRX) have equity like expected returns ... Please... that phrase should be banned from the forum. The only way to achieve "equity like expected returns" is with equity. Otherwise it's just marketing. Do you estimate expected returns for equit...
by Random Walker
Sat May 02, 2020 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8054

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

[quote=Norsky19 post_id=5226312 time=<a href="tel:1588407656">1588407656</a> user_id=99890] Interesting article from Larry.... thoughts? https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/four-investment-lessons-from-the-covid-crisis/ Larry's advice changes with the season. Today, it's only the safest bonds. Yesterd...
by Random Walker
Sat May 02, 2020 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8054

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

Typical investor, Don’t specifically remember the details of the “Correction Protection” article, but I would say the alternatives can provide relative correction protection. I own the 4 Alts. How they have performed since the start of the year can serve as an example. Off the top of my head TSM is ...
by Random Walker
Sat May 02, 2020 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

This is how I view some of this value / growth issue. The market prices risk. Value firms are are riskier businesses; more leveraged, more volatile earnings. Value firms are at greater risk of going out of business in bad times and the stocks get hit extra hard in those bad times. Value stocks refle...
by Random Walker
Sat May 02, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8054

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

Typical investor, You are misinterpreting his statements. I think the following much more closely represents his thoughts. The above mentioned alternatives (LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QSPRX) have equity like expected returns, expected standard deviation about half that of equities, and overall uncorrelate...
by Random Walker
Sat May 02, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8054

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

Interesting article from Larry.... thoughts? https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/four-investment-lessons-from-the-covid-crisis/ Larry's advice changes with the season. Today, it's only the safest bonds. Yesterday, it was alternatives that *cough* *cough* provide downside insurance and the same *wink* ...
by Random Walker
Sat May 02, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

shouldn’t greater risk be associated with increased expected return? Dave: Many years ago when we were invested with Merrill Lynch, our "Advisor" recommended the Merrill Lynch Phenix Fund which we purchased. His primary selling point was that this fund invested in risky companies that were expected...
by Random Walker
Sat May 02, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8054

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

Can’t believe how this discussion flys away from the article subject matter and goes off topic to mischaracterize the author. The article is solid and a good reminder of fundamental investing principles: have a plan, stick to it, rebalance, tax loss harvesting, don’t treat unlikely as impossible and...
by Random Walker
Sat May 02, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

I think people should invest in what they believe in. If you don’t believe in factors, then don’t do it. But I can’t help but notice the double standard between views regarding the various stock factors and the equity premium itself, which is actually another factor. Factor skeptics curiously have ...
by Random Walker
Sat May 02, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

I would expect a small software company to have to pay a higher interest rate than Microsoft. You just re-stated small firms are riskier. That's not an explanation for why small stocks are riskier. Well they would have to pay the higher interest rate because the bank is less likely to get paid back...
by Random Walker
Sat May 02, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

I would expect a small software company to have to pay a higher interest rate than Microsoft. You just re-stated small firms are riskier. That's not an explanation for why small stocks are riskier. Well they would have to pay the higher interest rate because the bank is less likely to get paid back...
by Random Walker
Fri May 01, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

I would expect a small software company to have to pay a higher interest rate than Microsoft. You just re-stated small firms are riskier. That's not an explanation for why small stocks are riskier. Well they would have to pay the higher interest rate because the bank is less likely to get paid back...
by Random Walker
Fri May 01, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

OK, thanks. That makes sense. So if it's a qualitatively different kind of a risk, is there an intuitive way to grasp the idea of small stocks as riskier than large? "Riskier" just seems like a quantitative comparison. Or is it a mistake to take the risk story about size to be that small stocks are...
by Random Walker
Fri May 01, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

I think that in general small stocks have both more market type risk (market beta greater than 1) and unique independent risk of small size. I thought one of the main points of the FF work was to distinguish increased market risk from a different type of risk in small stocks.

Dave
by Random Walker
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

Wouldn’t the recent relatively bad performance represent greater risk? And shouldn’t greater risk be associated with increased expected return? Dave To answer your 2nd question, not always. Only the systematic risk should be compensated. Are you suggesting that the recent relatively bad performance...
by Random Walker
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ??? Thomas Stanley - Stop Acting Rich book
Replies: 121
Views: 13432

Re: ??? @Thomas Stanley - Stop Acting Rich book

On the other hand, you have another group who need to go heavily into debt in order to train for their profession, and then spend the early part of their careers paying off their loans. But once they do clear their student debt, they can boost their net worth dramatically and most of that wealth wi...
by Random Walker
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ??? Thomas Stanley - Stop Acting Rich book
Replies: 121
Views: 13432

Re: ??? @Thomas Stanley - Stop Acting Rich book

I admit I haven't read the book, but I'm a little doubtful of the 'keeping up with the Jonses' explanation. It just seems too pat. Then you would be wrong. The associated concept is a very clear and strongly contributing factor. Like I said, I read a portion of the book that states this. Cheers Som...
by Random Walker
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

If the dramatic underperformance of SCV for the past 18 months doesn’t represent a “different and independent” return stream from large cap stocks, it’s hard to imagine what would. The above vineviz point is worth emphasizing. The poor recent performance of SCV relative to TSM and LG SUPPORTS the a...