Bogleheads.org

tipswatcher

When you retire, and have no other income, you do become a bit of a "cash hoarder" but in our case, the panic works in reverse. The main point is that you will constantly be looking for tax-efficient way to replenish your cash supply to live on for, maybe 24 months? After 12 months, you will be look...

tipswatcher

You don’t want to own TIPS in a taxable account such as the TD. The phantom tax along will erode inflation protection. I totally get the reluctance to hold individual TIPS in a taxable account, because of the "phantom tax," which actually isn't much different from owning any bond mutual fund in a t...

tipswatcher

Both I-bonds and TIPS have the identical "hedge" against inflation. Today, I-bonds allow one to purchase that hedge at a lower price, with the restraint of a limited quantity that one can purchase. TIPS allow one to purchase unlimited quantity, but at a higher price. The hedge one purchases is the ...

tipswatcher

You can't buy them in an IRA, 401K, etc. The important point is that an I Bond earns tax-deferred interest, and so it becomes a "stealth" traditional IRA. No tax is due until the I Bond is redeemed. You can pick the year to redeem it, or just let it ride for 30 years. The earnings are tax deferred....

tipswatcher

A negative real yield has no impact on the inflation protection offered by TIPS. I agree that Series I savings bonds may be preferable for some use cases, but they aren’t universally superior to individuals TIPS. Let me ask a question: In what ways is an I Bond -- with a 104-basis-point yield advan...

tipswatcher

100%. TIPS is the only perfect hedge against inflation. And as a prefect hedge it carries a high cost. I'd argue that investing in TIPS *at this moment in time* is not a perfect hedge against U.S. inflation, since every TIPS currently trading on the secondary market carries a real yield negative to...

tipswatcher

djinlang wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:02 am
If you're far from retirement, you're setting yourself up for decades of small real gains with a portfolio allocation of 65% to fixed income.

I'm retired, my wife is retired, we are financially secure and don't have any reason to take excessive risk.

tipswatcher

What would be your alternative investment to VBTLX/BND? Remember that interest rates may go sideways for many years, and by shifting to an investment with less interest rate risk you will likely be earning lower interest payments on a substantial portion of your portfolio (for who knows how long). ...

tipswatcher

I hold my entire 401k (about one-fifth of our overall portfolio) in Vanguard's Total Bond Fund (VBTIX), institutional shares. This is part of our overall allocation of 35% stocks - 65% fixed income, including cash, I Bonds and TIPS. It's conservative and it works for us. My 401k offerings are very l...

tipswatcher

Don't underestimate the power of changing laws. Especially when considering decades. The account is still a government sponsored one, endorsed by a section in the tax code, which you have 0 control over. I think it's a fair assumption that the top U.S. income tax bracket will be higher in future ye...

tipswatcher

I do think having sizable investments in a taxable account is a wise choice. If you overload your non-Roth retirement accounts you will face a big-time tax bite at age 72, when RMDs kick in along with the dreaded Medicare IRMAA add-on fees. Anyone who has a 401k plan that matches contributions shoul...

tipswatcher

Would you really buy in January 2021? I think I would wait until April 2021 You are correct. Thanks. I would absolutely wait until April 2021 to see if it was likely the 0.0% fixed rate might rise. I'd even be likely to wait until October 2021 if the fixed rate stayed at 0.0%. I was just meaning th...

tipswatcher

For what it is worth, I have posted my update on the I Bond and EE terms: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4341966-treasury-cuts-i-bond-fixed-rate-to-0_0-holds-steady-on-ee-terms There had been some "speculation" that the Treasury could set a negative fixed rate on the I Bond. I didn't think that wa...

tipswatcher

I do own Vanguard's REIT index fund, and I've held it for 15 years, maybe, reinvesting all dividends. It has a 10-year annualized return of 7.89% and a since-inception (Nov 2001) return of 8.85%. This is the only way I would invest in REITs. If a financial adviser approaches you with a "private inve...

tipswatcher

I feel like it was missing one very big piece of information though, and that’s what Rick charges for his time and knowledge. Rick's website lays this out very clearly: People find the Portfolio 2nd Opinion to be a good value because their questions are answered for a one-time $750 fee. My hourly f...

tipswatcher

On this topic, I found an interesting article on AdvisorPerspectives.com, a site directed to financial advisers, not their consumers. What To Do When Your AUM Fees Plummet by Sara Grillo, 4/7/20 https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/04/07/what-to-do-when-your-aum-fees-plummet The premise...

tipswatcher

I can understand the love for banks -- especially the online versions that have reimbursed ATM networks. But I also really appreciate Fidelity's CMA account, which "used" to pay about 1.5% interest. The ATM card can be used at any bank on the big networks, even overseas, with no charge. We also have...

tipswatcher

Barron's has posted a story on this (I know it will be behind a paywall): https://www.barrons.com/articles/vanguards-treasury-money-market-fund-closes-to-new-investors-51587075794 April 16, 2020 6:23 pm ET The Vanguard Treasury Money Market fund has closed to new investors for the first time in more...

tipswatcher

There are no bargains. It's a free market and, by definition, the pricing is "fair." I'd mostly agree with you. But then, on March 19 -- less than a month ago -- a 10-year TIPS auctioned with a real yield of 0.68% and a breakeven rate of 0.43%. That was a "free market" BARGAIN. Crazy stuff does hap...

tipswatcher

The idea that TIPS will get "more expensive" if inflation heats up always makes me ponder: How would they be more expensive, in the sense that I am buying a new issue TIPS today at an auction? The 10-year TIPS currently has a real yield of -0.50%, and it will cost me about $10,550 for $10,000 of val...

tipswatcher

I just posted an article handicapping the I Bond's May 1 fixed rate reset, and I am saying it will be 0.0%, at 95% certainty. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337146-why-i-bonds-fixed-rate-will-fall-to-0_0-on-may-1 I really do think the Treasury has "other motives" for the actions it takes with sav...

tipswatcher

OK, here's the thing ... when you transition from a lifetime of saving and investing to a future of non-saving and non-investing, you have entered "retirement." All the financial knowledge and drive you have been focusing on for maybe 40 years is pretty much up in smoke. You are in retirement. Do yo...

tipswatcher

Here's an example of where AUM advice can hit a "grey area": I was listening to the Ric Edelman podcast last week and a caller who was near retirement asked about paying off her mortgage, or refinancing it for a short number of years, or taking a cash-out 30-year mortgage as the refinance. She said ...

tipswatcher

Once we retired, my wife and I realized we needed financial advice, including tax advice and an income plan. We looked for a "fee-only" adviser, thinking that was the way to go. The name is a *bit* misleading. The couple advisers we talked to wanted to put all our assets "under management" and the f...

tipswatcher

I took a quick look and a 1-year Treasury is now yielding 0.15%, and best-in-nation insured CDs are yielding about 1.85%. So obviously, a small-scale investor would go with the bank CDs, even when owing state income taxes. Over time, these CD rates may fall. I'd expect them to fall if the Treasury y...

tipswatcher

I really enjoyed this podcast, even though a lot of the initial discussion won't affect me. I won't be getting a $1,200 deposit from the Treasury, and I won't be collecting unemployment, and the SECURE act didn't affect me much because I don't have kids. The wash sale discussion was really interesti...

tipswatcher

Any ideas as to where this goes from here over the next few days?

Based on the last two weeks, I'd say real yields could go up -- or down -- about 200 basis points.

tipswatcher

Relatively new to the board, so not sure what the collective take is on Jim Cramer ...

On the Bogleheads board, I believe his popularity ranks up there with Satan, Stalin and Hitler.

And I agree. When his show goes on, CNBC goes off.

His take on index funds, by the way, is absurd.

tipswatcher

Would anyone else consider conversion because of dip in prices alone? I don't have any expertise on this, but my wife is planning Roth conversions this year and I encouraged her to do this last week. It was stock fund (VTSAX) in a traditonal IRA to the same stock fund in Roth IRA. So no change in a...

tipswatcher

numerous posters on this thread are pondering how to play market timing with TIPS Back in 2011, I remember hearing some bond expert on CNBC saying, "The only reason to buy TIPS is for a capital gain." That statement stunned me. What an idiot! Then the TIP ETF proceeded to post a 13.4% total return ...

tipswatcher

anybody know the correct price yield for the current 30 year tip? The Bloomberg numbers are usually accurate during trading hours, but they continue to update after the stock market closes, I guess reflecting foreign trading of U.S. bonds? I'd surmise that the Bloomberg numbers indicate yields are ...

tipswatcher

First if you Donated to a DAF the money is No Longer Yours and should not be counted in your Portfolio. Sure, I get that, but I would have been making these donations anyway out of my portfolio, and so the DAF is a set-aside for that purpose. Thanks for the tip on the PortfolioVisualizer, I will de...

tipswatcher

I'm reading this thread because, obviously, I am considering re-balancing. I looked at our asset allocation in December and it was basically on target, because we were at the level -- 35% stocks, 65% bonds -- that we have set as the target. In January, though, I removed some money from the stock all...

tipswatcher

So, how are I-bonds, TIP's neglected nephew, implicated in all this? Or do I-bonds miss out on all the action because they only readjust every six months? One of the great things about I Bonds is that they aren't subject to market fluctuations. If you buy an I Bond before May 1 (the next rate reset...

tipswatcher

More evidence of how remarkable the Thursday 10-year TIPS auction was with a real yield of 0.68% and an inflation breakeven rate of 0.43%. At the close of Friday's trading, the real yield on this TIPS dropped to 0.12%, down 56 basis points in one day. The inflation breakeven rate expanded to 0.76%, ...

tipswatcher

So I am tempted to report it as a $2199 loss, trusting my records. Is that reasonable?

If you have the records to back it up, I'd definitely report the loss. Your records are most likely accurate.

tipswatcher

I had an unusual situation with these "cost basis not reported" numbers when they were imported into Quicken. I sold a big load of a closed-end fund, and I spaced out the sales because this issue isn't heavily traded. Also, a lot of the total shares sold came from small purchases over the years. By ...

tipswatcher

This would be because ... I just sold out of a small-cap value fund to take advantage of the tax loss.

I am doomed! Just kidding, no big deal. Very small holding.

tipswatcher

if the bid/ask spread wasn't 6% of the ask price! That's crazy. No one should/would pay that. And the Jan 2030 TIPS today in the secondary market (the same one which Treasury is re-opening at auction tomorrow) had something like a 2% spread. That was still way too much. This is evidence that the Tr...

tipswatcher

I have to agree that this 10-year TIPS reopening looks attractive at the current real yield of 0.61%. The 10-year inflation breakeven rate is currently running right around 0.60%, an amazingly low number. Investors are pricing in a long spell of deflation, it appears. This TIPS is much more attracti...

tipswatcher

I am amazed that Bob Brinker is still alive. I checked, and his Wiki says he lives in Henderson, Nevada. I was a big fan of his radio show, because he pushed common-sense investments, mostly Vanguard index funds, and was a big proponent of I Bonds when those had 3.0%+ fixed rates. His "market timing...

tipswatcher

I've listened to Dave Ramsey off and on over the years, and I appreciate his fervent preaching against debt, and the way he actually helps guide people away from very damaging debt levels. I've never really focused on his investment "advice," but I suspect it is simplified and he tends to direct peo...

tipswatcher

I did a Roth conversion late last year and ended up with a fair amount of cash that I intended to invest in Total Stock Market and Total International Stock Market. I decided to hold off. Markets were at all-time highs. So now, in this turmoil, I've been dribbling into those two funds, when we hit 1...

tipswatcher

A big problem with I Bonds is that you can only own them in a taxable account so after you pay the federal taxes on the inflation adjustment you will likely lose purchasing power to inflation. My investing goal is to have "some" allocation to inflation protection (currently about 15% of my portfoli...

tipswatcher

Thank you @Day9 for the call-out, I appreciate it! I agree that if you have a 20-year time horizon and you can *absolutely* hold for 20 years, EE Bonds are an amazing investment in March 2020. You'll get about 3.5% yield, tax-deferred, when you double your money at exactly 20 years. Until then, you ...

tipswatcher

The Treasury just posted the correct 30-year real yield: -0.22%. The correct 20-year real yield is -0.48%. The 30-year inflation breakeven rate holds at 1.47%, with the 30-year nominal ending the week at 1.25%. The Treasury DID NOT correct the earlier incorrect numbers. Bless their hearts, as we say...

tipswatcher

The 30-year inflation breakeven rate is about 1.47%, Why ? The most recent nominal 30-year Treasury had a yield of 1.30% at the close today. The most recent 30-year TIPS (less than one month old) had a yield of -0.17% at the close. That creates an inflation breakeven rate of 1.47%. Inflation would ...

tipswatcher

https://tipswatch.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/breakd.jpg Here is the 30-year inflation breakeven rate over the last couple years, just to show how comical this Treasury real yield data has become. The data are wrong. The 30-year inflation breakeven rate is about 1.47%, NOT -0.12% as reflected by cu...

tipswatcher

This has been an interesting discussion. I also noticed these VERY IMPORTANT Treasury estimates of real yields are way out of line for 20-year and 30-year real yields. This is obviously a data error and the Treasury should act quickly to fix this. Unless it is fixed, it will screw up FRED data chart...

tipswatcher

So there is a significant incentive to hold the bonds until year 5 at the minimum Obviously, 3 months interest penalty on a 0.1% fixed rate wouldn't be a barrier to selling these EE Bonds after year 1 and before year 5. We're talking about less than a $3 penalty on a $10,000 investment. However, af...

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