Bogleheads.org

tipswatcher

Non-seasonally adjusted inflation is used to adjust the principal balances of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Today's report means that those balances will fall 0.1% in May This was incorrect and I fixed it thanks to reader feedback, and I am sure that reader had to be a Boglehead. Smartes...

tipswatcher

Did anyone else buy in today's reopening of the 5 year? I bought at today's auction because I had an empty rung in my TIPS ladder for 2022. That was caused by the horrible yields back in 2012, when the 10-year yield was deeply negative. I wanted to fill that spot all year, but the yields weren't at...

tipswatcher

Interesting discussion. I never include my home in my asset allocation, but if I did, I'd call it 'real estate.' And owning real estate has lots of current costs, even if you have a paid-off mortgage. Ours has been paid off for 8 years. Our property tax bill is $6,400 / year, insurance is somewhere ...

tipswatcher

If you truly are open to reconsidering your decision, then did you sell your I Bonds with 0% or 0.1% fixed real rates in December 2015 and buy TIPS with the proceeds Whoa, I've been buying TIPS all along, whenever the real yield looks attractive. I am very reluctant to ever cash in a TIPS or I Bond...

tipswatcher

That's not true.

#Chuncher, I was meaning a TIPS can never fall before its par value at maturity. A TIPS can go way below that along the way, but at maturity, the par value is guaranteed. I corrected my post. And you know how much I love your feedback. You rule.

tipswatcher

What happens to i-bonds when inflation is negative? Well, here is one of the key differences between I Bonds and TIPS. When deflation strikes, I Bonds at worst can return 0.0% for six months. The accrued principal can never go down. I Bonds pay an interest rate based on inflation and when inflation...

tipswatcher

Do I understand i bonds and what am I missing? You stated the I Bond terms well. The one difference with a bank CD is current year income taxes on the interest. Plus in No. 1 you are earning interest based on past inflation, not future inflation. If inflation stays at the current muted level, below...

tipswatcher

In defense of Treasury Direct, I'd say the I Bond experience is MUCH better than the TIPS experience. The Treasury provides a Savings Bond Wizard so you can track your current values for savings bonds. But with TIPS, the Treasury gives you no way to view the current (inflation adjusted) value of you...

tipswatcher

Can someone help me understand why I cannot buy my annual max of iBonds right now in October vs waiting till November? Wouldn't I get the 0.1 fixed locked in and then the 2.76% on top of that? You can buy right now and guarantee the 0.1% fixed rate. You will get the current variable rate of 0.16% f...

tipswatcher

Here is the article, which I wrote: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4012796-breaking-news-bonds-variable-interest-rate-will-rise-2_76-percent-november-1 I suspect that I Bonds are going to be an extremely popular investment from November 2016 to April 2017, because that variable rate of 2.76% ensure...

tipswatcher

For a new issue, I think the Treasury's Real Yield Curve page is pretty accurate, and it's showing -0.20%.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... =realyield

tipswatcher

I just bought a new car, paid cash. If the dealer was offering 0.0% financing, I would have taken it. Then I would have set up automatic payments from a money market account to pay the monthly bill. I would have never seen a bill, it would have just been paid. But the dealer wasn't offering 0.0%. So...

tipswatcher

I was in Glasgow, Scotland, on June 30, 2007, when two guys drove an explosives-laden Jeep into the front door of the airport. This bombing was timed to hit the day after the school term ended, a Saturday, so the airport was crowded with children and families. No one was seriously harmed except for ...

tipswatcher

My wife and I will be traveling to Italy in the spring and Poland in the fall. The euro is much lower now, making your dollar a lot stronger than a few years ago. We were in Netherlands/Belgium last year and the prices were surprisingly good. Even then, you saw a much higher level of security, espec...

tipswatcher

I just bought a new car, too, a Honda HR-V EX to replace my 8-year old VW GTI. (By the way, I love that Golf Sportwagen, too. Great choice.) I used to always look for a 3-year-old used car, but then I bought the VW new in 2008 and I had very good luck with it. It was reliable, fun to drive. Maintena...

tipswatcher

Avoid the noise. I would say that TIPS are getting more attractive in this current trend. Maybe not quite yet, but definitely more attractive. With TIPS, you are just looking for the yield over inflation. After mid-2011, that went negative, even extremely negative. As the 'real' yield (after inflati...

tipswatcher

Use TIPS if the difference is <2% (the Fed's inflation target) and nominals if it's greater than 2%. I have been accused of market-timing TIPS, but nope. I just buy them and hold to maturity. I do wait for opportune times to buy them. I don't have unlimited resources, so I want to get the best deal...

tipswatcher

So if I buy an i-bond now, it will never earn any interest for the life of the i-bond (30 years)?!? This is about to change, tomorrow in fact. The inflation adjusted rate for all the I Bonds you currently own will rise to 1.54%, annualized, for six months. When that happens depends on the month you...

tipswatcher

which is currently showing 1.24%

So much can happen in four days. Oh ... I have seen it.

tipswatcher

I am going to be in the zero camp, 0.0%. But I will be doing a little research to try to figure out what happened in November 2013, when the Treasury decided - surprisingly - to raise the I Bond's fixed rate to 0.2%. On Nov. 1, 2013, the 10-year TIPS was yielding 0.50%. A 10-year nominal Treasury wa...

tipswatcher

Something I have been pondering: The coupon rate of this TIPS is 0.750%. You can buy it at a 10-12% discount, and then you will collect 0.75% a year in interest on your accrued principal, which rises with inflation. That is 0.75% in cash flow, for 29 years, 4 months. The point is: The real yield of ...

tipswatcher

To be more explicit about the age thing. I think most people should 1)START buying 30 year tips At say age 35 and 2) STOP buying 30 year tips at age 65 I think that's good advice, although I personally stopped buying 30 years when I was 58 -- but that had more to do with the extremely low yields fr...

tipswatcher

Whatever #Cruncher says, I listen. They guy is nearly always right, but in this case he found some sort of little error in his theory? Doesn't matter to me. Also this entire spreadsheet thing doesn't matter to me. I just buy TIPS at auction a couple times a year, when the price (yield to maturity, a...

tipswatcher

Rather than saying the the 2nd TIPS is "exposed to deflation risk", I'd say that the 1st TIPS is more "exposed to a deflation bonus".

Fantastic explanation, #Cruncher.

tipswatcher

#Cruncher, correct as always. Starting this year, there are 20-year TIPS maturing in each year out to 2029, then an opening until 2032. I am trying to build my ladder with auction issues, not from the secondary market, which has some hefty accrued principal. But you are right it can be done My perso...

tipswatcher

I guess you must figure paying tax on phantom interest is OK? Phantom interest doesn't bother me, especially at likely inflation rates. If inflation suddenly soared to 20% ... Oops ... we'd have a problem. But I'd still be very happy to own an inflation-protected investment. If you hold bond funds ...

tipswatcher

if the yield on a 10 years TIPs is 0.49%, why is the yield on the Vanguard TIPs fund only 0.13%? Vanguard's TIPS fund holds a basket of TIPS of varying maturities, from less than one year to nearly 30 years. Since there are only about 39 TIPS currently trading on the secondary market, there's not a...

tipswatcher

10-year TIPS auctions with a real yield of 0.491%

http://tipswatch.com/2015/07/23/10-year ... -of-0-491/

A bit lower than I expected, but hey, it goes off at a discount. I'm happy with this purchase.

tipswatcher

I've decided to buy a small amount of this offering, hoping that the yield will stick above .50% creating a glorious coupon rate of 0.50%. It's not super-attractive, in my opinion, but I need to fill a 2025 spot in my TIPS ladder and this looks like a decent opportunity. Since I am buying a small am...

tipswatcher

15 inch MacBook Pro. Love it. I was surprised that the Apple store was selling refurbished 15" MacBook Pros starting at $1099. The $1099 model would be the non retina version with all the ports, quad core i7, Nvidia graphics card, spinning hard drive and optical drive. Apple refurbished has same wa...

tipswatcher

EE Bonds are looking very attractive for my 2015 savings bond investment (I know I can buy both but probably won't). If the fixed rate stays at 0.0% on May 1, we can assume the market for new purchases of I Bonds will dry up. Would the Treasury see that and add a small fixed rate to hold up demand? ...

tipswatcher

I also realized I'd be using it at home much more than hauling it around. This was my final decision point, too. Although I travel often and need a real computer, not an iPad, at times, I realized that for the other 40+ weeks, when I am at home, wouldn't I rather have a laptop that is simple to use...

tipswatcher

So, I pulled the trigger Saturday, but I bought the MacBook Pro 13-inch Retina, not the new MacBook. Why? I took a really long look at the 13-inch MacBook Pro at Best Buy and I loved the build quality and the size seemed fine. The screen is gorgeous. Once the reviews for the new MacBook started comi...

tipswatcher

I have a lot of thoughts on this, because I have putting more more thought into buying a new laptop than I ever did in allocating money in my 401(k) or buying a 10-year Treasury. What does that says about me? Not sure. I was awaiting Apple's announcement of the new 'MacBook Air Retina' - and was pre...

tipswatcher

#Cruncher ... I can be a moron at times, and my error on the 0.625% versus 0.750% proves it yet again. As of Friday, the real yield on a 30-year TIPS had risen to 0.68%, which would get that 0.625% coupon rate, and put the TIPS fairly close to cash-flow neutral, depending on the inflation rate, of c...

tipswatcher

The Treasury issues a daily estimate of real yields, which translate to TIPS yields, and it's usually pretty accurate: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield At the close Friday the 30-year real yield was 0.68%, up 14 basis points ...

tipswatcher

On I Bonds, I would suggest holding off on buying a 2015 allocation at least until May 1, and mostly likely after Nov. 1. On May 1, the fixed rate is likely to remain at 0.0%, but the inflation-adjusted rate (for all I Bonds, not matter when they were issued) is very likely to drop below zero. Right...

tipswatcher

With 5 year tips likely to go for north of 0.3% real and Ibonds at 0.0% real, I decided to go with todays tips auction. I am also buying this TIPS at auction today. Short-term yields for TIPS have 'skyrocketed' ... well, for TIPS anyway. This same TIPS reopened in an August auction with a yield of ...

tipswatcher

One thing to consider is that a broadly-invested TIPS fund is going to be more volatile that a Total Bond Fund, possibly a lot more volatile and way less diversified. Vanguard's Total Bond Fund invests in 6,948 bonds, with an average duration of 5.7 years. Vanguard's Inflation-Protected Bond fund in...

tipswatcher

Why would you be forced into using a fund you didn't like? You couldn't use an equity option in your 401k and switch bond holdings to your traditional or Roth IRA? About 90% of my IRA and 401k holdings are in bond funds, so I need a good passive intermediate bond fund for my tax-deferred investment...

tipswatcher

My company's 401k is managed by Vanguard, and I used Vanguard's Total Bond Fund as my base bond fund for many years. About five years ago, the company dropped Total Bond Fund and switched the only option to Pimco Total Return. It also dropped the Stable Value Fund. I didn't like it, but I kept the m...

tipswatcher

We're looking at $10 either way, eh? $10, plus all the fun of pondering these things. Forget 2014, there will be an interesting decision in January 2015, when I would usually automatically buy the max in I Bonds. I don't think I will do that next year, if the fixed rate holds at 0.1% or 0.0%. Why n...

tipswatcher

The recent surge in the 10-year TIPS yield (to 0.61% today) might give the Treasury reason to hold the fixed rate at 0.1% for the next six months. As recently as Sept. 2 that yield was 0.27% - dangerous for preserving the 0.1% fixed rate. But unless rates rise dramatically before Nov. 1, a rise in t...

tipswatcher

FYI, today's 10-year TIPS auction went off with a very nice yield of 0.610%.

http://tipswatch.com/2014/09/18/10-year ... -of-0-610/

tipswatcher

My question is for Bogleheads who invest in inflation bonds (i.e. Individual TIPS, TIPS funds, iBonds), are you planning to stay the course with inflation bonds? I have to admit that today's inflation number was a bit of a shocker. I was expecting flat inflation for August, but instead we got -0.2%...

tipswatcher

Bongleur wrote:Matching will be going away in the near future, during the recession/depression years. Matching at my company went away in 2008, the same year the company froze my pension. My 401K has received no matching money in the last 6 years, all through an outstanding bull market. My company ...

tipswatcher

Correction to my post earlier .... Broken again. It worked twice, now I get the same OL-332-A error. Looks like another two weeks of chaos. ------------------------- 5 minutes later it worked again. It could be I created a new file along in the process, which I needed to use. I found it, and it work...

tipswatcher

The minute I saw the notice from Vanguard I thought: OH NO, NOT AGAIN! I think I went two weeks without a Quicken update in September 2013, due to Vanguard's account number switch - without notice, I should note. And I found the solution last year on the Bogleheads forum, not from Vanguard, which wa...

tipswatcher

# Cruncher, Doc, Nisi and all you other smart people. Why are the TIPS rates so low. Is the thought of inflation causing them to go up or are they just going up because the ten year yield is going down? I'd also argue that the yield on a 10-year TIPS is going to march in lockstep with the yield on ...

tipswatcher

Oh well, I give Susie Orman credit for attempting to get people to spend less and save more, generally in sensible ways. This is a mountain to climb in our consumer culture. Should I borrow from by 401(k) to buy jet skis? Susie: No. Should I buy a second home in Florida that I might retire to in 15 ...

Search found 283 matches