Search found 138 matches

by Runalong
Wed May 30, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 250
Views: 44006

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

VFLQ intrigued me enough, mostly for reasons stated above, that I invested early (3/5/18). It does appear to be equal to other factors historically with the advantage of not being an overcrowded trade (yet). And I already own a portfolio of stocks that I trade based on a multi-factor approach (liqui...
by Runalong
Mon May 21, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 109
Views: 14695

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Two quick thoughts: 1) Be a contrarian: your best bet is to tabulate the results of this survey and do the opposite of the consensus. 2) I read an article somewhere online this morning that asked something like, "What are the odds that at some point in the next 7 years the market will be lower than ...
by Runalong
Mon May 21, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds
Replies: 68
Views: 12766

Re: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds

I own GAA and like it but might sell it just because it's never caught on, less than $70M in total assets.
by Runalong
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Funds Launch
Replies: 30
Views: 5843

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Funds Launch

The top holdings don't look similar to me at all. VFMF only has two of VFVA's top 10 holdings in its top 50, and those are the two split HP companies. Scanning down the top 50, I see limited overlap, and those at very different weightings. I did a quick check, I see 9 of VFMF's top 12 holdings in V...
by Runalong
Sat Mar 03, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Funds Launch
Replies: 30
Views: 5843

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Funds Launch

I took some time this afternoon to look at the portfolio holdings of each of these new factor funds. Most of them are highly diversified, 500-700 holdings, although VFMV only has 140. VFMF (Multi-Factor) and VFVA (Value) have a VERY HIGH degree of overlap/correlation. VFMF costs 0.05% more than VFVA...
by Runalong
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: Taxes and P/E
Replies: 2
Views: 317

Question: Taxes and P/E

The market is soaring and I'm guessing that the reduction in the corporate tax rate is a big part of it. Has anyone seen any credible estimates on how the big tax cut will affect median or average P/E ratios? (Obviously one would have to know how much companies are actually paying now and what they ...
by Runalong
Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contemplating a sector bet: India
Replies: 20
Views: 2526

Re: Contemplating a sector bet: India

FWIW (not much): I bought SIFY at the end of last year and it's up 43% ytd (4 trading days). I've held SCIF for many years, it's been up and down but last year was pretty good and it's up over 5% already for 2018. So, if there is a "January Effect" for Indian equities, your bet might be a good one i...
by Runalong
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2548
Views: 471419

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

3.8% as of Friday Jan 5. At this rate I'll be a billionaire in 5 years.

:wink:
by Runalong
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 370
Views: 45093

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Without meaning to diss anyone, the folks who are struggling emotionally with this are the ones whose emotions are likely to lead them to poor choices, while those who are blase' are likely to do well. And one main advantage of the BH approach is that it can help calm us down and take our emotions o...
by Runalong
Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Throwing Down with a Primerica Advisor
Replies: 49
Views: 6506

Re: Throwing Down with a Primerica Advisor

Primerica's been a great investment! Up 250% since 2010 (market up 115%) plus dividends! (PRI) Tongue-in-cheek (though my stats are valid) but seriously folks: I had a relative who did Primerica for awhile. If one of their salesman can convince a young couple that is saving nothing for retirement to...
by Runalong
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any "average Joe" here actually make out well with individual stocks?
Replies: 108
Views: 15597

Re: Any "average Joe" here actually make out well with individual stocks?

I've done well, but I don't recommend it. Knowing what to buy is the easy part, knowing when to sell is hard. Emotions are the really hard part - any system will go through bad spells- does that mean your system isn't working anymore (not impossible as things do change) or is it just a temporary dev...
by Runalong
Wed May 24, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all markets efficient?
Replies: 28
Views: 2526

Re: Are all markets efficient?

I agree with your points alex_686. Meanwhile, as to my original question, further research shows that VMMSX has trounced VEMAX since inception: 1 year: 28:21 2 year: +2: -6 5 year: 24: 9 past results are no guarantee... but I would expect a gradual levelling over time rather than a sudden reversal. ...
by Runalong
Wed May 24, 2017 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all markets efficient?
Replies: 28
Views: 2526

Re: Are all markets efficient?

whodidntante: your argument then is that all markets everywhere are always efficient?
by Runalong
Wed May 24, 2017 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all markets efficient?
Replies: 28
Views: 2526

Re: Are all markets efficient?

My mistake, I meant VMMSX, the actively managed EM fund, not VEMAX the (VWO-equivalent) index.
by Runalong
Tue May 23, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all markets efficient?
Replies: 28
Views: 2526

Are all markets efficient?

I only check in here once every other month or so so pardon me if this has been covered in depth. In particular I wonder if VINEX (International small caps, 0.4% expense ratio) is a good investment on the assumption that the non-US small cap market does not get near as much attention as say, the S&P...
by Runalong
Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 131
Views: 24792

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

wije asked how I timed my purchase right: the answer is that since it had dropped so far I was prepared to wait out further drops (it did for a couple months) until it reverted to the mean. my strategy actually calls for adding to my investment (this applies to sector etfs only) each time it drops a...
by Runalong
Sat Aug 20, 2016 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?
Replies: 304
Views: 57700

Re: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?

I remember my mom used to watch this old show about a guy who would give someone $1million and see what happened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL23mLBrOic
by Runalong
Sat Aug 20, 2016 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you wash your car yourself, or have it done?
Replies: 96
Views: 12778

Re: Do you wash your car yourself, or have it done?

The American way is to hire people to do all your car washing, yard maintenance, house cleaning, and other manual labor for you while you go to the gym and run on a hamster wheel to stay in shape.

You aren't some kind of communist, are you?

:wink:
by Runalong
Sat Aug 20, 2016 1:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Western vacation questions
Replies: 40
Views: 3697

Re: Western vacation questions

How much time you need per park depends on how much hiking you plan to do.

If you are planning the drive, stop, look and shoot kind of trip, you can easily do all three parks in two weeks.

If you love to hike, two weeks is about right for Yellowstone.
by Runalong
Sat Aug 20, 2016 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?
Replies: 304
Views: 57700

Re: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?

We hit the milestone last year, now at about 1.2 at age 62. Two thoughts: We never had much money, stay at home mom, ZERO savings at age 40, less than $100K in IRA at 50, unplanned retirement (mine, my wife began working as a teacher after kids hit college age). 1) When you develop habits of being a...
by Runalong
Sat Aug 20, 2016 12:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 131
Views: 24792

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

In another thread about VGPMX I posted on 12/2/15: "I recently analyzed 24 Fidelity sector funds over the past 25 years, looking at how far they fell from each high and how they did over the subsequent 66 months. Only 3 times did a sector fund ever drop more than 80% (tech (-84%) and telecom (-82%) ...
by Runalong
Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Bond Funds decision
Replies: 7
Views: 1244

Re: Vanguard Bond Funds decision

thanks ogd (auto-correct wants to make a "god" out of you!).

yes, I read it. all in all it looks like this isn't a decision that I should spend much time on, they're all pretty much the same in the long run.
by Runalong
Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Bond Funds decision
Replies: 7
Views: 1244

Re: Vanguard Bond Funds decision

thank you for those responses. some clarification: I am looking for a buy and hold bond fund. it's an IRA account so taxes aren't an issue. it appears that the lower fees make the etf option preferable with no downside. is there any reason to expect that BIV would perform significantly different tha...
by Runalong
Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Bond Funds decision
Replies: 7
Views: 1244

Vanguard Bond Funds decision

My specific questions are about choosing between the following: VBMFX - total bond index fund (yield 2.35, exp 0.2) BND- total bond index etf (yield 2.44, exp 0.07) VFICX - intermediate fund (yield 2.06, exp 0.2) BIV - intermediate etf (yield 2.65, exp 0.1) 1. Over the long term they all move largel...
by Runalong
Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX)
Replies: 19
Views: 3387

Re: Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX)

I recently analyzed 24 Fidelity sector funds over the past 25 years, looking at how far they fell from each high and how they did over the subsequent 66 months. Only 3 times did a sector fund ever drop more than 80% (tech (-84%) and telecom (-82%) ca the 2000 crash, and consumer finance (-88%) ca '0...
by Runalong
Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in sectors that have fallen
Replies: 5
Views: 775

Re: Investing in sectors that have fallen

Steve: it's a distant cousin. Stocks can go all the way to zero (I owned WorldCom when it went lights out) and are much more volatile than sectors. Sectors ARE riskier than buying the whole market. And on those rare occasions when the whole market is down 50% from a previous high, I'd certainly want...
by Runalong
Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in sectors that have fallen
Replies: 5
Views: 775

Investing in sectors that have fallen

Some time ago someone asked about investing in VGPMX (metals and mining), given how far it had fallen. Someone responded by pointing out that if someone invested in a sector had fallen 80% from its highs, and it went on to fall to 90%, that would represent a 50% loss for anyone who invested at -80%....
by Runalong
Fri Nov 20, 2015 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey
Replies: 152
Views: 16373

Re: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey

On 4/2/15 (see above) Maynard Speer shared the ten stocks little Jimmy randomly picked and sort of "predicted" that these random stocks would have a very good chance of beating the S&P over the remainder of the year. Regarding 4 of Jimmy's 10 picks, I responded later that same day as follows: "I non...
by Runalong
Tue Jun 02, 2015 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe: "Smart beta makes me sick"
Replies: 21
Views: 3197

Re: Bill Sharpe: "Smart beta makes me sick"

"I cannot afford to be on the losing side for the many years that SV is underperforming... This way, if equities are performaning, I can guarantee that my portfolio also will." No one is recommending 100% US SV or even 50%. If you buy an index, half of it's holdings are going to underperform each ye...
by Runalong
Tue Jun 02, 2015 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe: "Smart beta makes me sick"
Replies: 21
Views: 3197

Re: Bill Sharpe: "Smart beta makes me sick"

I agree with Speer. OTOH: "If money managers continue to push value on everyone, then prices for value stocks will have to rise and will eventually eliminate the value premium." This seems to be the common misconception. People who buy Growth stocks are generally swinging for the fences, they want t...
by Runalong
Tue Jun 02, 2015 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 160
Views: 32042

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

I'm actually thinking of increasing my allocation for TIPS and for the very un-Boglehead reason that I AM trying to predict the future. It's hard to be a contrarian nowadays when contrarianism seems to have become mainstream. Contrarianism has such a solid track record (over the long haul) that as s...
by Runalong
Wed Apr 15, 2015 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2548
Views: 471419

Re: What are you up YTD?

5.2% YTD, including dividends, after all expenses and trading costs.

2% cash, 13% bond funds, 39% foreign, 46% US equity funds and stocks.

Big winner: BSET +65%, Big loser AUO -19%
by Runalong
Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things
Replies: 12
Views: 3765

Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Yep. The things "everybody knows" to be true have all been priced into the market by the big players by the time Larry (or anyone else) publishes them for the rest of us to see. Then, anything that happens that confirms the consensus is deemed irrelevant (we already knew that) and has little effect,...
by Runalong
Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing
Replies: 65
Views: 7205

Re: International Investing

FWIW:
YTD 2015:
VTI =2.6% (US TSM)
VEU = 7.9% (Int'l ex-US)
by Runalong
Thu Apr 02, 2015 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey
Replies: 152
Views: 16373

Re: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey

"Let's check back at the end of the year to see how Jimmy did." I non-randomly predict that TRV & TSO will outperform VTR & SJM the next 3 quarters. It's too small of a sample to mean anything but let's check back at the end of the year and see if my prediction would have been worth more or less tha...
by Runalong
Wed Apr 01, 2015 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF
Replies: 20
Views: 5189

Re: Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF

FWIW: VINEX has outperformed VFSVX and VSS over the past five years. I chose VINEX on the theory (data-free but intuitively sensible!) that foreign small caps are not as efficiently traded as is, say, the S&P 500, and therefore a good manager can still find value in this market and beat the index. U...
by Runalong
Wed Apr 01, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you invest in individual stocks?
Replies: 70
Views: 17820

Re: How many of you invest in individual stocks?

About 40% of my portfolio is in individual stocks that I trade relatively frequently. I know, I'm a heretic, but I do advise everyone else to follow the Boglehead's philosophy. I enjoy the research. If you don't, it wouldn't be worth it. I could do it in 3-4 hours/week but I probably put in twice th...
by Runalong
Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Hedged Bond Funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1960

Re: Int'l Hedged Bond Funds

Yes, I assumed that PFODX was the riskier. I assume that the higher rates come from riskier and/or longer-duration bonds. Also, with a 175% turnover vs 16% for VTIBX, I'm guessing that they have been making money by buying and selling bonds much as one would trade equities. Not an easy thing to do b...
by Runalong
Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Hedged Bond Funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1960

Re: Int'l Hedged Bond Funds

That's helpful to the degree I understand. It sounds like the TTM yield on a bond fund is virtually useless information for a prospective investor, SEC yield is the more accurate predictor? Yahoo finance only shows TTM, though they just identify it as "yield". If I understand correctly, I should exp...
by Runalong
Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Hedged Bond Funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1960

Int'l Hedged Bond Funds

I very well may not go this route at all but it bugs me that I don't understand it at all. I have a pretty good handle on stock funds but bond funds are like giant black boxes to me. Case in point: PFODX vs VTIBX Both are hedged international bond funds. PFODX: Yield 7.4%, expense ratio 0.90% VTIBX:...
by Runalong
Wed Mar 18, 2015 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx
Replies: 48
Views: 22803

Re: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx

Brad, I don't think you know what "sector" means! "Energy" is a sector. "Health Care" is a sector. "Technology" is a sector. "Defense", "Financials", Et cetera. I don't think any of these sectors will be going extinct in my lifetime. I do think that they will ebb and flow in popularity and that buyi...
by Runalong
Wed Mar 18, 2015 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx
Replies: 48
Views: 22803

Re: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx

Over a 10 year time frame VTI has trounced all four Vanguard sector funds. But I believe there have been studies on entire sectors from both a value and momentum perspective. It makes sense that if a sector is lower relative to other sectors than it has been historically, there should be some value ...
by Runalong
Tue Mar 17, 2015 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: interest rate increase looming. what you gonna do ?
Replies: 65
Views: 9264

Re: interest rate increase looming. what you gonna do ?

re: timing the market - interest rates aren't really comparable to the stock market. The stock market goes up and down but over time it goes up. It never approaches the ultimate "bottom" of zero. Interest rates go up and down and over time they go up and down within a historically defined range. The...
by Runalong
Thu Mar 12, 2015 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to buy up EUR?
Replies: 30
Views: 3628

Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Yes, we're booked for the Alps already.

I hear that they are lovely this time of the monetary cycle.
by Runalong
Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to buy up EUR?
Replies: 30
Views: 3628

Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Currently, the US has stated that they are going to be tightening and the EU has indicated that they are going to be loosening. If they do what they've said (no guarantee there, but they usually try to avoid surprises), then it's hard to see why the dollar wouldn't continue to gain strength vs the E...
by Runalong
Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?
Replies: 267
Views: 68691

Re: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?

It always amazes me that retired people always say that health is more important than wealth, but most pre-retirees focus more on how much money they will have rather than on how healthy, fit and mobile they will be. We have far more control (not perfect, but more) over our health and fitness than w...
by Runalong
Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past, present, and future of Berkshire - Annual letter
Replies: 29
Views: 4394

Re: Past, present, and future of Berkshire - Annual letter

According to Yahoo Finance, BRK-B (current price approx $147/share) has over $36,000 cash per share.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=brk-b&ql=1

Now THAT's what I call value! :wink:
by Runalong
Sun Mar 01, 2015 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past, present, and future of Berkshire - Annual letter
Replies: 29
Views: 4394

Re: Past, present, and future of Berkshire - Annual letter

It is interesting that in earlier years Berkshire massively outperformed the S&P 500 but since 2009 it has underperformed that benchmark. Looking at the charts it looks like from 2009 until now they've been pretty close, from 2007 until now BRK has "massively outperformed". I concede that it is sav...
by Runalong
Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 104
Views: 15823

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

thanks all for the discussion and input.

as for the newbie dividends question a good introduction is this book:

http://www.amazon.com/The-Little-Book-B ... 0470567996