Search found 2086 matches

by zaboomafoozarg
Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 320
Views: 15522

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

All I know is that if I decrease my ex-US allocation, they'll magically start to perform better :D
by zaboomafoozarg
Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investment a competition?
Replies: 43
Views: 2342

Re: Is investment a competition?

The more poor savers and unwise investors there are the better it is for the minority who actually are. Exactly, that is why I never tell anyone about this forum anymore. Not to mention that giving people anything that could be taken as financial advice is a bad idea. As the old saying goes: "In th...
by zaboomafoozarg
Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investment a competition?
Replies: 43
Views: 2342

Re: Is investment a competition?

If you have enough, what anyone else has its irrelevant. Not if their increased savings drives up the cost of living. When we had the poll years ago I think the average person here was worth $2 million. That's all well and good. But if everyone in my town was worth $2 million that would not be so g...
by zaboomafoozarg
Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investment a competition?
Replies: 43
Views: 2342

Re: Is investment a competition?

SB1234 wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:37 pm
Correction: life is a competition for only who think it's a competition.
But it does seem that those who treat it like a competition end up better off than those who don't.

I learned that once I started reading this forum.
by zaboomafoozarg
Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investment a competition?
Replies: 43
Views: 2342

Re: Is investment a competition?

"Is investment a competition?" Yes it is, and increasing net worth is a competition as well. In William Berstein's Retirement Calculator from Hell series, he talks about the impending demographic scenario where there will be more people retiring and less people working over the next few decades. Les...
by zaboomafoozarg
Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 320
Views: 15522

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Wow, that is bad. For 10 years I've heard people say that the valuations would matter but that doesn't seem to have been the case.
by zaboomafoozarg
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 320
Views: 15522

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

I do feel stupid for shifting from 75 US/25 Int'l to 60 US/40 Int'l over the past few years. I figure I've cost myself about 10-20% in total portfolio value. The US valuations just seemed so high in comparison to the rest of the world, but maybe that doesn't matter anymore given the nationalizing th...
by zaboomafoozarg
Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19256
Views: 2673118

Re:

There's seriously something wrong with Little Bill. He really is taking PLEASURE in this down-turn. I'm still seeking revenge against the stockbugs who were getting rich during the dotcom craze. I hope they've all lost their money by now. But, even more important, I want to see stocks get killed so...
by zaboomafoozarg
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19256
Views: 2673118

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

lostdog wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:18 am
The sideways since January 2018 continues....
I won't be surprised if we're still sideways 5 or 10 years from now.
by zaboomafoozarg
Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19256
Views: 2673118

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Just gearing this thread up for today. Looks like global markets are down close to 3% and U.S. appears to be opening red as well. However given the last couple months, does 3% even count as "free fall" anymore? :mrgreen: Feel its not a free fall until you hit those circuit breakers. For the last 2 ...
by zaboomafoozarg
Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going 100/0 to 52/48 Today (06/08/20) - Wish Me Luck
Replies: 48
Views: 4751

Re: Going 100/0 to 52/48 Today (06/08/20) - Wish Me Luck

Good luck. I'm in a similar situation and also want to retire early, but am thinking about switching from 75/25 to 70/30 or 65/35. If the market takes a dive I'll regret not doing more, but I usually try to force myself to move slowly. Unfortunately this has not worked as well in other aspects of my...
by zaboomafoozarg
Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Foster Portfolio (2017)
Replies: 17
Views: 1365

Re: The Foster Portfolio (2017)

Horton wrote:
Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:34 am
It’s a well made film, but is antithetical to BH principles
I think that investing methodology was not the primary subject.

Instead, it is that lifestyle inflation may change your life in ways that you don't want.

I liked it.
by zaboomafoozarg
Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terrible time to buy bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 4220

Re: Terrible time to buy bonds?

tibbitts wrote:
Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:26 pm
It's a terrible time to buy bonds, stocks, real estate, and commodities. Did I miss anything? Oh yes, cash equivalents too.
It seems like it is a terrible time for everything, investing or otherwise.
by zaboomafoozarg
Mon May 25, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds may be the only thing propping up the stock market
Replies: 13
Views: 1919

Re: Why bonds may be the only thing propping up the stock market

galeno wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 9:07 am
The nominal yield of our 50% FI allocation = 1.25%.
40% US Treas + 40% Corps + 10% TIPs + 10% CASH.

The 3 yr CAGR of USA CPI = 2.04%. The 10 yr CAGR = 1.65%.

It's sad.
I don't plan on much more than this for the next few decades.
by zaboomafoozarg
Mon May 25, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver
Replies: 29
Views: 1630

Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 7:06 am
Jeremiah 20:5 says:

"And I will let your enemies plunder Jerusalem. All the famed treasures of the city—the precious jewels and gold and silver of your kings—will be carried off to Babylon."

So, you see, it's pointless.
Checkmate, goldbugs :D
by zaboomafoozarg
Wed May 13, 2020 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?"
Replies: 44
Views: 5638

Re: Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?"

Q. What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?

A. Read the "U.S. Stocks in Free Fall" thread while questioning every financial decision you've ever made.
by zaboomafoozarg
Thu May 07, 2020 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 315
Views: 17296

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

The disconnect is unexpected and I think about switching from 75/25 to 25/75 just about every day.
by zaboomafoozarg
Sat May 02, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19256
Views: 2673118

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

This thread feels more like reddit's /r/investing than Bogleheads.
by zaboomafoozarg
Fri May 01, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 9091

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

And ironically, Bernstein's "The Intelligent Asset Allocator" was what initially got me started down the road of tilting to small value.

I should've probably cared less about my asset allocation, and more about doing something to make more money.
by zaboomafoozarg
Fri May 01, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 9091

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

I made the mistake of tilting to small value years ago. I knew I'd have to stick with it, so I'm in it for the long haul. What makes it more painful is that I concentrated the small value in my Roth IRA because it's not available in my 401k. So now my Roth IRA has suffered much larger losses. Betwee...
by zaboomafoozarg
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 291
Views: 19107

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Forester wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:11 am
Gold will go under $1,400 & silver under $10 (stocks will fare much worse). I'm thinking we begin to see big bankruptcies which take stocks back to the early 2010s :o
Anything's possible. I wouldn't be surprised is this is worse than 2008/2009.
by zaboomafoozarg
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 275
Views: 25746

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Deflation is depression in today's highly leveraged world. Everything from mortgages, home equity loans, credit card debts, consumer loans, student loans, corporate debts, everything becomes super expensive to pay. We get absolutely crushed back into stone ages. Minor deflation, or disinflation for...
by zaboomafoozarg
Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 31072

Re: My theory about FIRE

What do you do? I quit law firms and went inhouse at about 12x. Still a real full time job still saving. Just decided to take a slower road. I do software development. I have thought about trying contracting, because then I could just do it 3-6 months at a time and take some time off after that. Bu...
by zaboomafoozarg
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 31072

Re: My theory about FIRE

Yes. Bogleheads encourages saving and investing but heaven forbid you actually want to use the money to retire early. This place does sometimes remind me a little of the old boardgame "The Game of Life". Per the instructions, "The player with the most money at the end of the game wins!" But that is...
by zaboomafoozarg
Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 31072

Re: My theory about FIRE

You could easily do it until 20x expenses and then quit and use your side hustle (and skills generally) to get you to 30x and then quit. I actually got to that point recently. But for some reason I don't feel any closer to retiring than I did when I had 10% of what I have now. So I figure I'll just...
by zaboomafoozarg
Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 31072

Re: My theory about FIRE

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49465130657_fc845deeca_z.jpg I've never heard of Side FIRE... I guess I technically am there. My "side hustle" makes more than enough for me to live on. But I don't know how long that income will last, so I'll stick with doing that side job plus a 9-7 job that I ...
by zaboomafoozarg
Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOOK: Fully Grown, Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success
Replies: 55
Views: 3442

Re: BOOK: Fully Grown, Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success

Is the trend to increasing automation covered?

If automation keeps increasing, that may continue to bring growth for another few decades. It may also bring increased unemployment, perhaps permanently, but may still be good for companies and shareholders.
by zaboomafoozarg
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years
Replies: 110
Views: 10047

Re: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years

This has always been my expectation when I do investment planning: 2-2.5% returns on stocks for the next 50 years 0-0.5% returns of bonds for the next 50 years You don't say if you mean real or nominal; I assume you mean nominal.I have posted a similar guess for real returns, although not for 50 ye...
by zaboomafoozarg
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years
Replies: 110
Views: 10047

Re: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years

watchnerd wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:31 am
cogito wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:13 am
I disagree. In 2037, energy is solved, which lead to a 243% in GDP in that year alone! So you don't want to miss that event before the 20 years is up.
So you're predicting nuclear fusion by 2037?
It's always 20 years away :D
by zaboomafoozarg
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years
Replies: 110
Views: 10047

Re: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years

This has always been my expectation when I do investment planning:

2-2.5% returns on stocks for the next 50 years

0-0.5% returns of bonds for the next 50 years
by zaboomafoozarg
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32599

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

David Jay wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:41 pm
And where are they going to go? T-Bills?
I think I'm finally going to buy a house later this year.

Figured I might as well protect against some inflation and take advantage of low lending interest rates.
by zaboomafoozarg
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your age/AA during this crisis?
Replies: 138
Views: 6504

Re: What is your age/AA during this crisis?

35, 75% stocks/25% bonds.

Stocks are 60/40 US/Int'l, and within those categories, 60/40 TM/SCV.
by zaboomafoozarg
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I thought I had it all figured out....advice please
Replies: 42
Views: 5326

Re: I thought I had it all figured out....advice please

moneyman11 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:11 pm
100% Lifestrategy Moderate Growth ... then go back on that bike ride.
I honestly would love to do that.

But I started S&Ding years ago so I'm in it for the long haul.
by zaboomafoozarg
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19256
Views: 2673118

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

CULater wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:23 pm
What is the expected result? Don't know. You can make your own judgment, or you can just carry on.
Who knows, maybe the whole world's stock markets end up like Japan over the next 30 years, and almost nobody is able to retire.
by zaboomafoozarg
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7433

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

Wait just a minute... are you implying that THE John Bogle was a market timer!? He did say in his book "Enough": "But, in late 1999, concerned about the (obviously) speculative level of stock prices, I reduced my equities to about 35% of assets, thereby increasing my bond position to about 65%" And...
by zaboomafoozarg
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7433

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

We knew it spread asymptomatically by mid-late January, or at least we knew it PROBABLY did. We knew we were much less prepared to respond to an epidemic than at any point in the last 30 years. Yep, I feel like I really dropped the ball this time. The warning signs were there but I didn't pay close...
by zaboomafoozarg
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really that bad?
Replies: 96
Views: 8112

Re: Is it really that bad?

I wasn't really in the market in 2008, 2001, or 1987, so...are we in a period like those? They're all a little different. How bad it will be over time remains to be seen. I do know that those events didn't involve a virus that could potentially kill my parents or grandparents (or me), and possibly ...
by zaboomafoozarg
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I cant "Stay the Course" - Rebalance/IPS
Replies: 56
Views: 4523

Re: I cant "Stay the Course" - Rebalance/IPS

One option is to change your 401k contributions to be all stocks for a while.
by zaboomafoozarg
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What changes will you make in your life ...
Replies: 16
Views: 1179

Re: What changes will you make in your life ...

I will take a lot more care with hygiene by washing my hands more often and by trying to keep my hands off my face. I will not tolerate obviously symptomatic people imposing themselves within my space. Regular flu is bad enough. I hope handshakes die out entirely because I've always hated doing that.
by zaboomafoozarg
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What changes will you make in your life ...
Replies: 16
Views: 1179

Re: What changes will you make in your life ...

Adjust my AA to include a 2% allocation to hand sanitizer.

Nah seriously though, I might rethink my "75/25 forever" strategy. I dunno if I'd go full Bodie, but something like 60/40 or even a bond tent might not be a bad idea.
by zaboomafoozarg
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19256
Views: 2673118

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:23 pm
This is shaping up to be the mother of all drops. It's too late for me to sell now so I'll keep grabbing for the falling knife until VOO goes to zero. :?
Yeah same haha, I should've gotten out 3 weeks ago. In 3 weeks I'll probably be saying the same thing :shock:
by zaboomafoozarg
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19256
Views: 2673118

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

squirm wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:44 pm
Also it's been a straight line up since 2009 with hardly any downturns to scare people.
The 2011 and 2018 drops did scare some people, each was almost 20%.
by zaboomafoozarg
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEU at 10+ year low
Replies: 3
Views: 333

Re: VEU at 10+ year low

Seems like we sometimes forget there is a risk with stocks that you will lose a lot of money and that money will never come back, at least not in your lifetime. That is definitely a risk. With bonds there is also the risk of losing value against rising inflation, like 1940-1980. Who knows, this who...
by zaboomafoozarg
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charting the carnage. Price drops Jan 1 - Mar 17
Replies: 19
Views: 1523

Re: Charting the carnage. Price drops Jan 1 - Mar 17

VBR back at 2013 levels :shock: I am buying small cap value. But worried we might end up at 2010 levels. The only consolation I find is that I can afford to invest way more money now than I could in 2010 (provided I keep my job). I picked a less than ideal time to convert my traditional and Roth IR...
by zaboomafoozarg
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 59
Views: 7907

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

Nicolas Perrault wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:34 am
Stocks sometimes go down. What's your point?
Stocks go up, stocks go down, can't explain that :D
by zaboomafoozarg
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?
Replies: 98
Views: 7275

Re: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?

This idea above is all new to me (I'm old and out of touch) but I think the idea of working only 20-30 years, and having enough to fund a 40+ year retirement by investing in stocks is a pipe dream for the vast majority of people. It just isn't that easy. Not to mention that only being in stocks dur...
by zaboomafoozarg
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why all these timing threads?
Replies: 67
Views: 3549

Re: Why all these timing threads?

hagridshut wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:50 am
Here is an example: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=306816. The OP in that thread has also previously lied to the community. You can check their post history and verify this.
Click OP's name in that post - looks like their account has been nuked from orbit :D
by zaboomafoozarg
Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW likely to fall to 15-17k at some point this year?
Replies: 44
Views: 4623

Re: DOW likely to fall to 15-17k at some point this year?

flaccidsteele wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:56 pm
Investing @Dow 15k is easy money
Provided you have money to invest