Search found 2013 matches

by bigred77
Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Speculating - Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Replies: 55
Views: 4524

Re: Speculating - Chesapeake Energy (CHK)

Since misery loves company I will add my name to the list of gamblers burned by CHK. I traded CHK off and on over the past 2 years, it was always hugely volatile. Was probably up close to 7k. Then in Q1 2020 I lost all my gains and eventually exited with a 20k loss shortly after the reverse split oc...
by bigred77
Wed May 13, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using A Conservative Calculation
Replies: 11
Views: 614

Re: Using A Conservative Calculation

I typed out numerous snarky responses but decided that’s really not helpful to the OP if we are giving the benefit of the doubt that this is a serious question. Those assumptions are way, way beyond conservative and reasonable. I would plan using your actual starting balance and make sure you would ...
by bigred77
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?
Replies: 92
Views: 7306

Re: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?

As a retail investor, if your asking how commodity futures work, you should not be entering into any positions.

If you want to bet on oil prices increasing, just buy VDE. It’s a much safer instrument to play around with.
by bigred77
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Bear 2020 Like Bear 1987?
Replies: 6
Views: 871

Re: Bear 2020 Like Bear 1987?

If then next 13 years are similar to 1987 - 2000 then just go ahead and sign me up right now.
by bigred77
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why does the 4% rule work when the markets have huge corrections
Replies: 51
Views: 3478

Re: Why does the 4% rule work when the markets have huge corrections

My recommendation is if you retired within the past 3 years and took 4% of your starting retirement balance at the time the first year and adjusted for inflation after that, you could consider reducing your spending by a reasonable amount for the next couple years until the full fallout of this bear...
by bigred77
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Actual Layoff: Just Need Some Positive Reassurances
Replies: 42
Views: 4224

Re: Actual Layoff: Just Need Some Positive Reassurances

My sympathies to Random Poster. No matter how much you dislike your job, it’s always difficult when the decision to separate is taken out of your hands and made by the employer. On the bright side your severance should last you for over a year and your significant assets and networth should last you...
by bigred77
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone buying oil/energy sector?!
Replies: 56
Views: 5204

Re: Anyone buying oil/energy sector?!

All I can tell you as someone who works in the Oil industry is that today is a pretty darn scary day. It's the reality of working in a commodities business. Everyone understands that it's cyclical. Current prices won't persist long term because they're below the cost of marginal production needed to...
by bigred77
Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does being active on Bogleheads lead to confirmation bias?
Replies: 17
Views: 1277

Re: Does being active on Bogleheads lead to confirmation bias?

I notice a distinct pessimistic tilt while reading Bogleheads. I don't know if it's a vocal minority of members or truly representative of the active population. Can you explain the pessimistic tilt? I would like to understand what is deemed pessimistic. I see a lot of discussion around sub 4% (or ...
by bigred77
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does being active on Bogleheads lead to confirmation bias?
Replies: 17
Views: 1277

Re: Does being active on Bogleheads lead to confirmation bias?

I notice a distinct pessimistic tilt while reading Bogleheads.

I don't know if it's a vocal minority of members or truly representative of the active population.
by bigred77
Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Strategies for Dealing with A Job Layoff
Replies: 28
Views: 2198

Re: Strategies for Dealing with A Job Layoff

Just curious, are you in a field that has lots of layoffs? (former now retired due to layoff Eagle Ford Landman asking). If so, might want to invest in some cross education, training, as back up. I was laid off March 2018. Severance included 4 months of pay, so unemployment payments could not start...
by bigred77
Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: To what do you owe your ability to forego spending now and save for your future?
Replies: 116
Views: 5180

Re: To what do you owe your ability to forego spending now and save for your future?

I grew up in a household where money was scarce and I was vaguely aware my parents were always concerned about it. I found a good job right after undergrad in 2008, at age 23, in the heart of the recession and decided I better learn all I can about money and how to manage it so it wasn’t a primary s...
by bigred77
Fri Oct 18, 2019 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYT: Why Don’t Rich People Just Stop Working?
Replies: 18
Views: 3733

Re: NYT: Why Don’t Rich People Just Stop Working?

I’m not wired to ever be mega-rich and I’m OK with that. 1.) I’m too risk adverse to ever put all my chips in the middle of the table. 2.) As soon as I ever got anywhere near 8 figures (and probably less than that amount) I’d be out of the office and into the sunshine. I have way too many things I’d...
by bigred77
Tue Oct 15, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Invited to join HOA board. Pros/cons?
Replies: 58
Views: 5207

Re: Invited to join HOA board. Pros/cons?

I serve as Treasurer on my very small residential HOA. It's a pain, a thankless job, and probably costs me a couple hours per month of my ever dwindling free time. But I do it because I plan to stay in the same house for the next decade plus and I want to have my say in decisions, capital projects, ...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Equitizing future cash flows
Replies: 4
Views: 265

Re: Equitizing future cash flows

This is one of the cases where it might make sense to use derivatives to put a floor on the stock compensation owed to you if the amount in unvested stock is a material percentage of your networth. Now the mechanics of how to do that is tough to optimize. Is the company a huge publicly traded entity...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Purchasing home with less than 20% downpayment experiences?
Replies: 52
Views: 4039

Re: Purchasing home with less than 20% downpayment experiences?

5% down on first property. FHA loan. 10% down on second property with a 10% piggyback loan (HELOC) and 80% primary mortgage, no PMI. Both times expenses were a little higher at closing than I originally thought they’d be. Closing also took forever (about 60 days each time with a lot of drama) but th...
by bigred77
Fri May 31, 2019 11:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?
Replies: 369
Views: 42789

Re: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?

I see Managers in my field making $250K give or take working 40-50 hours a week with limited travel/stress. One can make it to this level being good, ambitious, and persistent (you have to wait your turn; put in the years). I see Directors in my field making $400K give or take working 50 - 60 hours...
by bigred77
Fri May 31, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?
Replies: 369
Views: 42789

Re: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?

I see Managers in my field making $250K give or take working 40-50 hours a week with limited travel/stress. One can make it to this level being good, ambitious, and persistent (you have to wait your turn; put in the years). I see Directors in my field making $400K give or take working 50 - 60 hours ...
by bigred77
Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Divorce Question - 401K QDRO
Replies: 36
Views: 3645

Re: Divorce Question - 401K QDRO

I would probably just leave it alone. I assume you already have a lot on your plate with a divorce getting finalized and there are other things pulling on your attention. That being said, if you do have concerns, I think the right way to look at this is you now have a leveraged portfolio until the Q...
by bigred77
Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do you live where you live?
Replies: 134
Views: 10240

Re: Why do you live where you live?

I live in Houston because I work in O&G and this the place to be for that industry. It helps that my family lives here as well. It's not really LCOL if you want to avoid commuting (inside or just outside the 610 loop) but it's manageable. It's incredibly diverse. The food and sports scenes are top n...
by bigred77
Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seller Evaluating Multiple Offers
Replies: 12
Views: 999

Re: Seller Evaluating Multiple Offers

I would counter #3 and ask them to match the selling price from #2. If they do, great. If not I'd probably go with the offer from #2 unless you really want to just get the process over and done with. Do you want to eat the spread between #2 and the original offer from #3 in order to close quicker an...
by bigred77
Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Effective tax rate
Replies: 26
Views: 2147

Re: Effective tax rate

skor99 wrote:
Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:20 pm
bigred77 wrote:
Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:59 pm
(income taxes + property tax + FICA + estimated sales tax) / Gross Compensation = 21% (roughly).

Would be a lot lower if I rented a house instead of owned.
Would you also share your approximate gross income, if you don’t mind ?
Right around $175k gross for 2018
by bigred77
Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Effective tax rate
Replies: 26
Views: 2147

Re: Effective tax rate

(income taxes + property tax + FICA + estimated sales tax) / Gross Compensation = 21% (roughly).

Would be a lot lower if I rented a house instead of owned.
by bigred77
Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do Non Boglehead Type People Know Their Net Worth?
Replies: 17
Views: 1224

Re: Do Non Boglehead Type People Know Their Net Worth?

The vast majority of the population could not tell you their household networth with any degree of accuracy.
by bigred77
Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your tax filing strategy? (for commoners)
Replies: 31
Views: 2112

Re: What's your tax filing strategy? (for commoners)

I just use turbo tax (web version).

I've been using it for years so I know they handle my RSUs in a weird way and I manually input the cost basis for those.

Other than that I have no real complaints and it costs me less than 50 bucks all in.
by bigred77
Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How many bogleheads do you know in real life?
Replies: 130
Views: 11286

Re: How many bogleheads do you know in real life?

The only person I know is my brother, who is also the only person who asked me for financial advice and actually did anything with the information and resources I gave to him. My friends and coworkers are pretty close to financially illiterate. Best case scenario is they contribute enough to their 4...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please critique my plan for early retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 5533

Re: Please critique my plan for early retirement

Have you considered Roth conversions instead of SEPP withdrawals? Once you convert traditional to Roth you can withdraw those conversions (but not gains on the conversions) five years later without tax or penalty. The only problem with this tactic is that you need enough outside money to live on fo...
by bigred77
Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just did my taxes.
Replies: 38
Views: 2888

Re: Just did my taxes.

The SALT cap really got us. We still itemized but our deductions got cut significantly. Our income wasn’t high enough for the lower marginal rates to compensate. Even with a new kid (and my first year getting the child tax credit) we paid more in taxes this year.
by bigred77
Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FIRECalc, do you accept their assumption?
Replies: 91
Views: 9412

Re: FIRECalc, do you accept their assumption?

I accept their assumption. Notice they correctly used the word “likely” and not “guaranteed”. For those concerned with using a US only data set: that is a flaw IMO (since I think global diversification is more appropriate for almost all investors). Results would look worse if we used other single co...
by bigred77
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Money Troubles: Need advice to start over from a hole.
Replies: 37
Views: 3366

Re: Money Troubles: Need advice to start over from a hole.

Pulling $$ from retirement accounts is a really inefficient way of dealing with this problem.

Looking into a 0% balance transfer is the best option.

At the very least I would look into rolling the balances to the current employer's 401k plan and pursuing a loan.
by bigred77
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Working Holidays for extra money.
Replies: 64
Views: 5055

Re: Working Holidays for extra money.

Not a chance (not that it’s an option in my line of work). I would only volunteer to work through the holidays if the hypothetical multiple was something ridiculous (like 10x). Since that would never happen, I simply enjoy some much needed time off. The only times I ever worked between Xmas and New ...
by bigred77
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I feel cheated, saved too much in 401K vs cash.
Replies: 74
Views: 11317

Re: I feel cheated, saved too much in 401K vs cash.

In terms of asset location, there's probably no better place for a medium to low earner to save and invest their money than in a 401k or traditional IRA. You deduct it at your marginal rate and get to withdraw it later at your effective tax rate which almost certainly comes out more favorably than p...
by bigred77
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do our savings rate habits change as we get older?
Replies: 16
Views: 1679

Re: Do our savings rate habits change as we get older?

I think the most common route for the general population is to be poor savers throughout their working years. Among those who generate above average wealth, I imagine the most common route is an increasing savings rate as their income increases are their capacity to save grows along with it. Good sa...
by bigred77
Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To each his own ( I guess ) [Opinions of traveling in retirement]
Replies: 109
Views: 8567

Re: To each his own ( I guess ) [Opinions of traveling in retirement]

My wife and I caught the travel bug in our mid 20s when we finally got some real disposable income. We had a long streak of 2-3 weeks of international travel per year before the first baby came. We're gonna try to pick it up again and do a couple of weeks in Italy next year with a 14 month old. That...
by bigred77
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?
Replies: 89
Views: 4829

Re: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?

You are insuring against catastrophic risk. You purchase a product with negative expected value in order to insure you don't get wiped out if the negative tail risk shows up. It's the same reason I don't lever up on small cap value stocks as my entire portfolio. It has the highest expected value, bu...
by bigred77
Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Markets Move on the Unexpected, What Gives Now?
Replies: 6
Views: 825

Re: If Markets Move on the Unexpected, What Gives Now?

You’re not playing the game right:

Headline X - Market moves - “The market reacted to unexpected news X”

Headline X - Market is flat - “The market has already priced in X before the headline today”

😀
by bigred77
Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?
Replies: 234
Views: 16948

Re: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?

If my wife and I were to die tomorrow, my 8 month old son would stand to inherit just about $1M.

This reminds me that I really do have to shore up our estate planning :shock:
by bigred77
Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you define how/when you make or lose money?
Replies: 17
Views: 1546

Re: How do you define how/when you make or lose money?

You mark to market at whatever two points in time your interested in measuring and then assess.

If the later endpoint shows a higher number you made money.

If the later endpoint shows a lower number you lost money.
by bigred77
Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2019 Expenses > 2019 Income – Help us close the gap
Replies: 128
Views: 9336

Re: 2019 Expenses > 2019 Income – Help us close the gap

Spend down from your 50k in cash over the next 2 years and then rebuild the balance if you so desire once your wife rejoins the workforce. It’s not even spending above your means, think of it as shifting a portion of your taxable assets to tax advantaged accounts (because that’s exactly what your do...
by bigred77
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maserati Experiences
Replies: 47
Views: 5894

Re: Maserati Experiences

My next door neighbor drives a Ghibli S. Awesome car. The engine is very distinctive to my unsophisticated ear. I can tell my neighbors home from my living room once he turns onto our street. It's in the shop from time to time for various reasons (maybe 2X a year) which I'm sure is (or would be out ...
by bigred77
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 92
Views: 8349

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

I'm an Econ major. Obviously biased, but I'm a big fan. I think it's a great foundation for any "business" related career path (finance, accounting, marketing, sales, consulting, entrepreneurship, operations management, etc.) You will be qualified for almost any entry level corporate job. I think it...
by bigred77
Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Parallels between investing and fantasy football?
Replies: 14
Views: 1015

Re: Parallels between investing and fantasy football?

In a normal fantasy league, you have 10 - 16 participants. Probably 25% are REALLY into fantasy football and 25% are casual football fans. That does not make for an efficient market. You can generate alpha by being the first to act on new information (injury news), by executing lopsided trades with ...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 21, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else seen huge rise in TX insurance costs?
Replies: 27
Views: 2229

Re: Anyone else seen huge rise in TX insurance costs?

I live in Texas and just switched away from Amica after the 2nd straight year of 20%+ premium increases (I had home, auto, and umbrella).

Geico ended up being the best rates for me after this round of shopping my policies around as a bundle.
by bigred77
Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 17806

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

I went to an expensive private undergrad. My parents helped as much as they could. I received financial aid and eventually a full ride athletic scholarship to cover my last couple of years. I ended up with roughly 30k in debt. I paid my own way through 2 graduate programs. I plan to pay for my own k...
by bigred77
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 90
Views: 8300

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Well, your looking at 2 asset classes in isolation. It would be better to take a portfolio wide look. You know what has higher risk adjusted returns than 100% HY Corp Bonds? 60% US stocks and 40% HY Corp Bonds. You know what has even higher risk adjusted returns? 60% Us stocks and 40% intermediate t...
by bigred77
Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 20032

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

This thread is hilarious. Bad math. Assuming 3% - 5% real rates of appreciation for all RE investments. Just glazing over the difference between recourse and non-recourse financing like it's no big deal. Apparently negative cash flow time periods, vacancies, and capital repairs/improvements can be e...
by bigred77
Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How often do you buy a primary residence?
Replies: 46
Views: 4439

Re: How often do you buy a primary residence?

- Bought a condo at 24.
- Sold condo and moved to a single family home a mile away at 28.
- Goal is to keep the same house until retirement when we plan to move back to a condo. I miss the "lock and leave" lifestyle.
by bigred77
Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timing exit from megacorp
Replies: 54
Views: 7018

Re: Timing exit from megacorp

I would inform them on May 15th then. In my company, at certain levels it's common to give an extended window of time before retirement for succession planning. Some times up to a year, but I know not every company is like that. If you don't know for sure, inform them on May 15 after you've received...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does CAPM make sense?
Replies: 23
Views: 1518

Re: Why does CAPM make sense?

Your quote said to assume a fixed net profit margin and consider a revenue multiplier of 10x and 0.5x over a couple of decades. You are right, in that case revenue growth is going to correlate pretty darn well with stock returns. Nobody would say your wrong. The problem is profit margins aren’t cons...
by bigred77
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1,000,000 in savings account to pay mortgage?
Replies: 32
Views: 4606

Re: $1,000,000 in savings account to pay mortgage?

You do not keep money in a saving account earning 2% just to borrow money at 4% unless you have some unusually high liquidity needs.

You can invest it in higher risk/return assets or pay down the mortgage. But a savings account doesn’t make sense.
by bigred77
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?
Replies: 121
Views: 15494

Re: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?

Hate to be the contrarian here but I don't see how the OP fixed income options could possibly provide the amount needed for a 50 year retirement duration. They are all nominal bonds. I went to usinflation.com, plugged in $1,500,000 in 1968, and the result stated one would need over $10,750,000 to b...