Search found 1981 matches

by bigred77
Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To each his own ( I guess ) [Opinions of traveling in retirement]
Replies: 109
Views: 7546

Re: To each his own ( I guess ) [Opinions of traveling in retirement]

My wife and I caught the travel bug in our mid 20s when we finally got some real disposable income. We had a long streak of 2-3 weeks of international travel per year before the first baby came. We're gonna try to pick it up again and do a couple of weeks in Italy next year with a 14 month old. That...
by bigred77
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?
Replies: 89
Views: 4186

Re: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?

You are insuring against catastrophic risk. You purchase a product with negative expected value in order to insure you don't get wiped out if the negative tail risk shows up. It's the same reason I don't lever up on small cap value stocks as my entire portfolio. It has the highest expected value, bu...
by bigred77
Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Markets Move on the Unexpected, What Gives Now?
Replies: 6
Views: 740

Re: If Markets Move on the Unexpected, What Gives Now?

You’re not playing the game right:

Headline X - Market moves - “The market reacted to unexpected news X”

Headline X - Market is flat - “The market has already priced in X before the headline today”

😀
by bigred77
Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?
Replies: 234
Views: 15017

Re: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?

If my wife and I were to die tomorrow, my 8 month old son would stand to inherit just about $1M.

This reminds me that I really do have to shore up our estate planning :shock:
by bigred77
Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you define how/when you make or lose money?
Replies: 17
Views: 1429

Re: How do you define how/when you make or lose money?

You mark to market at whatever two points in time your interested in measuring and then assess.

If the later endpoint shows a higher number you made money.

If the later endpoint shows a lower number you lost money.
by bigred77
Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2019 Expenses > 2019 Income – Help us close the gap
Replies: 101
Views: 5289

Re: 2019 Expenses > 2019 Income – Help us close the gap

Spend down from your 50k in cash over the next 2 years and then rebuild the balance if you so desire once your wife rejoins the workforce. It’s not even spending above your means, think of it as shifting a portion of your taxable assets to tax advantaged accounts (because that’s exactly what your do...
by bigred77
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maserati Experiences
Replies: 47
Views: 5543

Re: Maserati Experiences

My next door neighbor drives a Ghibli S. Awesome car. The engine is very distinctive to my unsophisticated ear. I can tell my neighbors home from my living room once he turns onto our street. It's in the shop from time to time for various reasons (maybe 2X a year) which I'm sure is (or would be out ...
by bigred77
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 68
Views: 4034

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

I'm an Econ major. Obviously biased, but I'm a big fan. I think it's a great foundation for any "business" related career path (finance, accounting, marketing, sales, consulting, entrepreneurship, operations management, etc.) You will be qualified for almost any entry level corporate job. I think it...
by bigred77
Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Parallels between investing and fantasy football?
Replies: 14
Views: 863

Re: Parallels between investing and fantasy football?

In a normal fantasy league, you have 10 - 16 participants. Probably 25% are REALLY into fantasy football and 25% are casual football fans. That does not make for an efficient market. You can generate alpha by being the first to act on new information (injury news), by executing lopsided trades with ...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 21, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else seen huge rise in TX insurance costs?
Replies: 27
Views: 1941

Re: Anyone else seen huge rise in TX insurance costs?

I live in Texas and just switched away from Amica after the 2nd straight year of 20%+ premium increases (I had home, auto, and umbrella).

Geico ended up being the best rates for me after this round of shopping my policies around as a bundle.
by bigred77
Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 16241

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

I went to an expensive private undergrad. My parents helped as much as they could. I received financial aid and eventually a full ride athletic scholarship to cover my last couple of years. I ended up with roughly 30k in debt. I paid my own way through 2 graduate programs. I plan to pay for my own k...
by bigred77
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5906

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Well, your looking at 2 asset classes in isolation. It would be better to take a portfolio wide look. You know what has higher risk adjusted returns than 100% HY Corp Bonds? 60% US stocks and 40% HY Corp Bonds. You know what has even higher risk adjusted returns? 60% Us stocks and 40% intermediate t...
by bigred77
Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

This thread is hilarious. Bad math. Assuming 3% - 5% real rates of appreciation for all RE investments. Just glazing over the difference between recourse and non-recourse financing like it's no big deal. Apparently negative cash flow time periods, vacancies, and capital repairs/improvements can be e...
by bigred77
Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How often do you buy a primary residence?
Replies: 46
Views: 4196

Re: How often do you buy a primary residence?

- Bought a condo at 24.
- Sold condo and moved to a single family home a mile away at 28.
- Goal is to keep the same house until retirement when we plan to move back to a condo. I miss the "lock and leave" lifestyle.
by bigred77
Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timing exit from megacorp
Replies: 54
Views: 6254

Re: Timing exit from megacorp

I would inform them on May 15th then. In my company, at certain levels it's common to give an extended window of time before retirement for succession planning. Some times up to a year, but I know not every company is like that. If you don't know for sure, inform them on May 15 after you've received...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does CAPM make sense?
Replies: 23
Views: 1281

Re: Why does CAPM make sense?

Your quote said to assume a fixed net profit margin and consider a revenue multiplier of 10x and 0.5x over a couple of decades. You are right, in that case revenue growth is going to correlate pretty darn well with stock returns. Nobody would say your wrong. The problem is profit margins aren’t cons...
by bigred77
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1,000,000 in savings account to pay mortgage?
Replies: 32
Views: 4422

Re: $1,000,000 in savings account to pay mortgage?

You do not keep money in a saving account earning 2% just to borrow money at 4% unless you have some unusually high liquidity needs.

You can invest it in higher risk/return assets or pay down the mortgage. But a savings account doesn’t make sense.
by bigred77
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?
Replies: 121
Views: 10918

Re: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?

Hate to be the contrarian here but I don't see how the OP fixed income options could possibly provide the amount needed for a 50 year retirement duration. They are all nominal bonds. I went to usinflation.com, plugged in $1,500,000 in 1968, and the result stated one would need over $10,750,000 to b...
by bigred77
Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire at age 40?
Replies: 158
Views: 19456

Re: Can I retire at age 40?

I'm all for retiring early but I would keep the pedal to the metal for a few years still. I think about age 45 - 50 you should hit your sweet spot depending on investment returns and how much you continue saving. I would want around 3.5M in investable assets if I planned to retire pre-50 and spend 1...
by bigred77
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Could you support family on 1 income?
Replies: 88
Views: 7133

Re: Could you support family on 1 income?

Well our 2nd income stops in August so I hope we make it! I'm early 30s and we just had our first kid. We live in a expensive(ish) city but nothing like NY or SF. All of my friends and peers who started having kids are all dual income except for 1 or 2 who had family financial support. It's relative...
by bigred77
Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I Invest 4 million dollars to earn 120k (inflation adjusted) a year for life?
Replies: 93
Views: 19402

Re: How can I Invest 4 million dollars to earn 120k (inflation adjusted) a year for life?

You put 1/3 each into the US stocks, International stocks, and US Bonds. You spend 10k a month. You adjust it every year by the CPI change. You rebalance once a year on your birthday. You live your life. Your big financial issue isn't going to be will you run out of money, it will be how will you al...
by bigred77
Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When did you know your kids would go to college?
Replies: 91
Views: 5401

Re: When did you know your kids would go to college?

My son is 5 weeks old and I've known he will be going to college for the past 5 years :D I joke but growing up I just operated under the assumption that college (and graduate school) was just a given. I just knew that's what I needed (and wanted) to do. My parents talked about it as a given, I assum...
by bigred77
Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the magic savings rate???
Replies: 94
Views: 14658

Re: What’s the magic savings rate???

I'm a proponent of 25% - 33% (if possible). If your making less, a lower savings rate is reasonable. You have to meet your needs and SS should replace a larger percentage of your pre-retirement salary. If you are pursuing an extremely early retirement, you might need to go higher. I've found balance...
by bigred77
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?
Replies: 69
Views: 5785

Re: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?

I find backtesting to be very useful. Just keep in mind it’s not appropriate to define absolute statements or rules based on backtesting. “I’m using a 60/40 AA because historical data shows this allocation had superior risk adjusted returns” - Good “I’m using a 60/40 AA because I need 4% annual real...
by bigred77
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: A lot of heavy hitters this morning
Replies: 244
Views: 23542

Re: A lot of heavy hitters this morning

Don’t feel demoralized. Look at it this way - if husband and wife work for even just 20 years and just save normally, they would save Husband 401(k) = 18,500 Husband match = 6,000 Wife 401(k) = 18,500 Wife match = 6,000 2x Backdoor Roth = 11,000 529 = 6,000 (say only $500 per month) HSA = 6,900 Tot...
by bigred77
Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?
Replies: 62
Views: 6501

Re: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?

I don't know if I'd call it "smoke and mirrors". I prefer "the observed human tendency to associate patterns with random data". I think technical analysis is not worth your time or attention. I'm open to cases being made for fundamental analysis, but I've yet to be convinced, and I doubt I ever will.
by bigred77
Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings % Goal > Top marginal tax rate?
Replies: 49
Views: 2874

Re: Savings % Goal > Top marginal tax rate?

Geez... Tough crowd this morning. I think it's a pretty good rule of thumb OP. The lowest tax bracket is 10% which is good minimum. Married couples making over 100k should be saving 22%. Then after 300k families should be saving 1/3 (or more). In general, hitting higher saving percentages gets easie...
by bigred77
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I "get divorced" for tax purposes (PSLF)
Replies: 57
Views: 4401

Re: Should I "get divorced" for tax purposes (PSLF)

I would not get divorced over a couple thousand dollars a year for the next 8 years. That said I would still minimize you’re household AGI with retirement contributions, file either MFJ or MFS depending on whichever minimizes your total liabilities, pay the minimum on your loans eligible for PSLF, a...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First offer on a house...gut check
Replies: 16
Views: 2697

Re: First offer on a house...gut check

Numbers seem fine to me.
by bigred77
Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advice would you give yourself if you were 27 again?
Replies: 120
Views: 9554

Re: What advice would you give yourself if you were 27 again?

I would have told myself to stop drinking so much and cleanup my diet and exercise habits.
by bigred77
Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much have kids added to your personal finance/expenses?
Replies: 111
Views: 10352

Re: How much have kids added to your personal finance/expenses?

I largely agree with those who stated kids cost whatever your willing to spend. Can be a little little extra per month (holding housing costs constant and if you can arrange childcare from family or one parent would be staying home anyway) or can be a huge multiple of that. We have our first kid due...
by bigred77
Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I focus on paying down student loans during a Bear Market?
Replies: 14
Views: 1375

Re: Should I focus on paying down student loans during a Bear Market?

A bear market is precisely when you want to throw extra money into your portfolio. The opposite of what you proposed. If your student loans are sub 3% and on a 10 yr term then I would recommend just paying them off on schedule. If you want to pay extra on principal in lieu of taxable investing that’...
by bigred77
Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Working in the real world
Replies: 118
Views: 10765

Re: Working in the real world

ust heard today that 1/6 millennials has saved up over $100,000, fighting the myth that millennials are not saving. Would it surprise you that the majority of millennials on this board have more than $100,000? It would surprise me if it wasn't. I need to see the source for this.. Very hard to belie...
by bigred77
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pull back on retirement saving to increase savings for kids' college?
Replies: 31
Views: 2916

Re: Pull back on retirement saving to increase savings for kids' college?

If your going to use 529s (and I would encourage you to do so. They are of the most benefit to families with financial situations like yours) I would suggest front loading the contributions and “super funding” their accounts. If you have 200k+ in taxable brokerage accounts I would put 100k for each ...
by bigred77
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pros and Cons of High Rise Condos for retired couple
Replies: 47
Views: 5902

Re: Pros and Cons of High Rise Condos for retired couple

A high rise condo is my retirement plan. No outdoor maintenance. Lock and leave lifestyle. Walkable location. Onsite security and staff. A 1 bedroom unit might be challenging size wise for some. Depends on how much space your used to. Personally I would make that compromise for budgetary constraints...
by bigred77
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your annual cost of living (expenses)?
Replies: 40
Views: 4059

Re: What's your annual cost of living (expenses)?

Roughly 100k in a MCOL city.

2 adults, 0 kids
by bigred77
Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fear of dying with too much money?
Replies: 137
Views: 10217

Re: Fear of dying with too much money?

Dying with too much money is a symptom of a problem I do perceive on Bogleheads and that’s the pursuit of absolute economic certainty regardless of cost. That cost comes in the form of working additional years unnecessarily. It comes in the form of depriving oneself of experiences, conveniences, or ...
by bigred77
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are some good, older threads?
Replies: 20
Views: 2680

Re: What are some good, older threads?

“Best watch for around $5,000” :D

viewtopic.php?t=27707
by bigred77
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Short Commute or Nicer House?
Replies: 142
Views: 9715

Re: Short Commute or Nicer House?

Even in perfect conditions you described an extra 25min in the car each way. 50min x 5days x 50weeks = 208+ Lost hours per year (in theoretical perfect conditions) It’s not worth it if it public school quality is the same. Your trading all those hours only for a little bit bigger/nicer house. Over a...
by bigred77
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 7428

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

:idea: What I am saying is that in 1999, there was almost no good information available on withdrawing income during retirement. It's a good thing that we have widespread access to better information today. I think it's far from ideal for many retirees, but I hear talk of the '4% rule' just about e...
by bigred77
Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse
Replies: 35
Views: 6358

Re: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse

It's almost like the behavior we'd expect to see if interest rates on treasuries were used to discount the future expected cash flows of companies in order to derive stock prices. :mrgreen: (end sarcasm) i.e. when interest rates are low, we should fully expect to see a higher range of valuations. No...
by bigred77
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?
Replies: 26
Views: 2055

Re: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?

The scary part of that chart is how quickly it rises and falls. I wonder how well it aligns with recessions....in other words, do those scary declines align with recessions? The scary declines are actually right around the tops of the bull markets (the precede the subsequent recessions). If you ret...
by bigred77
Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?
Replies: 26
Views: 2055

Re: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?

You are looking for the SAFEMAX rate.

See here: https://retirementresearcher.com/willia ... s-safemax/

There are other articles that discuss it as well.
by bigred77
Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The "Forever Home" Myth: Should I Plan on Buying 2 Homes?
Replies: 36
Views: 4136

Re: The "Forever Home" Myth: Should I Plan on Buying 2 Homes?

I don’t know about forever homes but I agree with the premise to limit the number of times you change personal residences and hold real estate for long(er) periods of time. I’m 32 and I hope to move only once more in my lifetime, when the kids leave for college I’m moving to a condo for less mainten...
by bigred77
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.
Replies: 175
Views: 14229

Re: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.

I hope they will be allowed to continue. I think they are motivating to others (in a “testimonial” sort of way). I also think it’s probably pretty cathartic to be able to share some exciting news like that in what I think is an appropriate forum when most other avenues would consider such news taboo...
by bigred77
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article claims: Housing was the world’s best investment over the last 150 years
Replies: 14
Views: 1790

Re: Article claims: Housing was the world’s best investment over the last 150 years

Tell me how the heck they calculated standard deviation for global “housing”. Real Estate is not a liquid, transparent, daily market like publically traded equities. If I buy a house today and sell it in 5 years, I have 2 data points. If I try to calculate my annual standard deviation I’m just guess...
by bigred77
Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 31..any reason not to allocate 100% stocks in 403b?
Replies: 20
Views: 1760

Re: 31..any reason not to allocate 100% stocks in 403b?

I am 75/25 in my early 30s because I view the significant reduction in portfolio volatility for the price of slightly lower annual returns to be good value. I’m sure in all likelihood I’d end up with more money 30 years from now if I was 100% stocks but I prefer a smoother ride in case I want or nee...
by bigred77
Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your threshold for paying down debt?
Replies: 89
Views: 7190

Re: What is your threshold for paying down debt?

There is a reason businesses have debt, which we rarely discuss--discipline. I feel like we'd be less disciplined about budgeting/saving if we didn't have a mortgage and many investors feel that companies are the same. Maybe other Bogleheads don't feel like discipline would be an issue for them... ...
by bigred77
Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors
Replies: 42
Views: 2449

Re: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors

I overweight small and value because I'm trying to overweight higher risk, higher return (hopefully), higher standard deviation sub-populations of the overall market that will hopefully be relatively non-correlated to the other parts of my portfolio. I don't think that means I'm conceding the overal...