Search found 1285 matches

by bigred77
Fri Feb 24, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for Pre-Retirement Income
Replies: 2
Views: 271

Re: Help for Pre-Retirement Income

You would be far better off increasing your contributions to retirement funds for the tax advantages. If you want to step back from your careers in your late 40's, then you can and simply stop contributing to retirement funds. You've free'd up about half of that 2k-3k right there. If you you still n...
by bigred77
Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Father runs an empire at age 80; not my business?
Replies: 18
Views: 3902

Re: Father runs an empire at age 80; not my business?

Laws vary in different states, but I would not assume that if he dies without a will, his wife gets everything. A portion may be required to go to his children. Being an executor for an estate in good shape is a lot of work. I was an executor for an estate the previous executor made a mess of, I ca...
by bigred77
Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best funds for Roth investments.
Replies: 7
Views: 640

Re: Best funds for Roth investments.

REITs would be appropriate in any sort of tax advantaged account (traditional or Roth) as they throw of a lot of income that would be very inefficient in taxable brokerage accounts. I keep my Roth balances all in equity index funds. REITs may be appropriate if they fit into your overall asset alloca...
by bigred77
Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Debt Question (Separation)
Replies: 14
Views: 981

Re: Credit Card Debt Question (Separation)

My only suggestion would be to close down all joint credit cards now and have each spouse open additional ones in their own name if needed. During the course of divorce/seperation negotiations make sure the debt is taken over by one party individually (or if it's split, each portion is transferred o...
by bigred77
Fri Feb 24, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Purchasing a new house -- Are we being stupid to consider it?
Replies: 35
Views: 3559

Re: Purchasing a new house -- Are we being stupid to consider it?

I'm not sure I would do this personally but it's certainly doable if you want to go down that route. I would sell your rental and your current home, take the proceeds and put 20% down, I would forgo any loan from your parents. If you have any extra home equity after putting 20% down and moving, thro...
by bigred77
Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 183
Views: 10200

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

What you have here is somebody very dishonestly abusing statistics to show a certain point, running a large number of comparisons and not telling you about it, cherrypicking results, and basically using every trick in the book to massively overfit the past data without validating it on anything els...
by bigred77
Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thank You
Replies: 9
Views: 1149

Re: Thank You

Great testimonial! I think many people have "no knowledge of a Roth IRA." Can you shed light on why you had no knowledge? I'm asking because I think that should be the main way that lower income people save for retirement, but I suspect they have no knowledge of a Roth IRA either. Is is b...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?
Replies: 104
Views: 6913

Re: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?

http://i66.tinypic.com/1115oxi.png If I look at this graph, and then compare the mid 80s oil bust to what we've seen in recent years, it looks like we're in for another 5-10 years of sideways equity markets before a massive bull run like we saw in the 90s!!!! :mrgreen: :mrgreen: Excellent news for ...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 21, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 183
Views: 10200

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

All I know is... If you have a model (CAPE) that was built on 70 years of data, and then for the next 25 years straight the data doesn't match the model, I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder if the model is no longer accurate. If maybe, just maybe, there are more variables involved that weren'...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds bad in ROTH? Infographic:
Replies: 8
Views: 447

Re: Bonds bad in ROTH? Infographic:

My preference would be to hold bonds in tax deffered (traditional) and equities in tax exempt (Roth) if you can swing it. Do you have any sort of fixed income option (or stable value) in your workplace 401k? If not, you can either continue doing what your doing or explore using Muni's in a taxable a...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 21, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice: Traditional vs Roth at top of 15% bracket with unrealized taxable account gains
Replies: 17
Views: 627

Re: Advice: Traditional vs Roth at top of 15% bracket with unrealized taxable account gains

I'm less familiar with this type of analysis so I'm not sure I could make a concrete recommendation without overlooking something. One consideration I would add though is that if you contribute to traditional and tax gain harvest your taxable account up to the top of the 15% tax bracket you get 2 bi...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 183
Views: 10200

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I'm a big proponent of price to ttm sales ratio, especially now. Pretty much the only metric (sales) that you can't gimmick with accounting. See Figure 7. See Figure 5 and 6 also interesting...Market cap to GNP (Buffet's fav valuation indicator). Note this isn't a stock timing indicator, but rather...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax-sheltering and target retirement fund disadvantages
Replies: 2
Views: 153

Re: Tax-sheltering and target retirement fund disadvantages

I've been maxing out my Target Retirement Vanguard fund which is in a ROTH IRA. I've also been maxing out my 403b from work, which is a T. Rowe Price target retirement fund. I like the all-in-one funds because of the nice allocation set-ups that I don't have to tinker with. I'd like to invest more,...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads
Replies: 39
Views: 3637

Re: Warren Buffet v. Bogleheads

So I guess the solution is to stay the course? :P In all seriousness, many Bogleheads talk about how they love to "up" their buying when the market is down. This seems to be a variation of Buffet's philosophy. I suppose while this is still technically considered market timing, it's an acc...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 183
Views: 10200

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Yea I never made a decision to take profits until last month when I moved from 60% stock to 40%: 1) Extreme valuations above around 95 percent of all time periods Other experts have written numerous times that they interpret the data differently than Hussman, and they believe the market might be va...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: economics of landlording
Replies: 46
Views: 4046

Re: economics of landlording

You're right, if he was talking about buying this place up front. But he's already got it and is trying to decide whether to sell it. He's already said that's going to cost him 25K. And I think whether that 25K sales cost is worth it to free up his capital depends on his current financing state. Wo...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 20, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: economics of landlording
Replies: 46
Views: 4046

Re: economics of landlording

This isn't a great rental property. After your basic fixed expenses (tax, ins and mgmt) you are only making $10,000 a year of the $250K asset for a total ROI of 4.0%. That's not great for a rental property; you should be making well above that to make the hassles and lack of liquidity worth it. Oth...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 20, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with recent inheritance and investments
Replies: 29
Views: 1302

Re: Help with recent inheritance and investments

Do you have access to a 401k/403b/457 from your employer? Because that's the easiest way for you to both reduce your tax burden and build a retirement fund. I absolutely would pay off your student loans with the 3% loan from your parents and invest the remainder in a taxable account. I would also th...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 20, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6328

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

I wouldn't venture to speak for them but I suspect those situations are extremely unusual if they recommending that kind of portfolio in good faith. I'm pretty sure Larry has never advocated a leveraged portfolio of 100% SCV and EM for the masses. I didn't say that he or them recommended such portf...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 20, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6328

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

If you say "well I'm a robot and have absolutely 0 aversion to risk. I don't care about my account balance fluctuating, max draw downs, the ability to access my funds before my planned investing time frame, etc. I just want the highest expected returns over the long term and promise I won't ne...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 20, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6328

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

If you say "well I'm a robot and have absolutely 0 aversion to risk. I don't care about my account balance fluctuating, max draw downs, the ability to access my funds before my planned investing time frame, etc. I just want the highest expected returns over the long term and promise I won't ne...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 20, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Once having achieved 30X -- share your strategy?
Replies: 42
Views: 3971

Re: Once having achieved 30X -- share your strategy?

I suspect all of those are somewhat common approaches for deploying capital, especially among those with large asset bases (multi-millionaires). . . . . . . . . . :D Thanks for the reply. Very true I guess. For some reason, millionaire businessman have crossed paths with me throughout my life and b...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 20, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6328

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

I typically would not recommend anyone go 100% equities. When you are looking at extremes (100% equity, 0% equity) the marginal cost/benefit ratio is extremely high. Going from 100 equities to 80/20 can buy you a significant amount of risk reduction for a relatively small cost (as measured by expect...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 20, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Once having achieved 30X -- share your strategy?
Replies: 42
Views: 3971

Re: Once having achieved 30X -- share your strategy?

Not in the format of the OP but FWIW 1. Fellow worth mid 9 figures :shock: . "I have 6 homes, travel, and everything's good. Let Schwab and Northern Trust worry about my money." 2. Retired professor worth mid 7 figures. "I put it all in annuities. I don't want to worry about anything...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone have a house keeper ("Mommy's" helper)?
Replies: 23
Views: 2271

Re: Anyone have a house keeper?

I have a maid service that comes every other week and does a deep house clean. All we have to do is pickup intermittently and do our own laundry/dishes. I think we probably overpay a little for what we're getting but there is company delivering the service so I have someone to go to if something hap...
by bigred77
Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it reasonable to have 100% in the stock market?
Replies: 58
Views: 5795

Re: Is it reasonable to have 100% in the stock market?

I don't understand why everyone is saying this "you already won the game". $1.2 million in California is not a won game. Not by a long shot. Now, if OP invests in the market over 30 years... he likely will win due to compound growth on equity returns. But surely $1.2mm now is not already ...
by bigred77
Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inheritance advice
Replies: 17
Views: 1415

Re: Inheritance advice

Personally I would not put too much into the mortgage. Paying off the mortgage effectively concentrates your portfolio in a single asset that could depreciate in the event of a real estate downturn. I believe you are best off hedging your bets and contributing some to the house and some to a divers...
by bigred77
Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Static AA and the long run?
Replies: 10
Views: 869

Re: Static AA and the long run?

I plan to use a static allocation of 75/25 throughout my accumulation years before switching to 60/40 in retirement. Currently I plan to just make the change on one single day. Probably during my annual re-balancing date closest to retirement. In practice, once I was within 5 years of a planned reti...
by bigred77
Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns is Signing Off -- He'll be missed
Replies: 25
Views: 6351

Re: Scott Burns is Signing Off -- He'll be missed

I hope someone will continue the Life of Riley index. Fascinating. http://www.uexpress.com/scott-burns/2016/6/26/life-of-riley-index-climbs-higher (First link on Google, the last report on this from Mr. Burns) +1 His Life of Riley index and his Wealth Scoreboard were my favorite reoccurring posts t...
by bigred77
Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loan Payoff vs. ANY Investing
Replies: 29
Views: 1216

Re: Student Loan Payoff vs. ANY Investing

Contribute enough to get the match at least.

Can you take a HEL or HELOC, refinance the cars, or otherwise get a better rate than 7.5% on your SL?

I suppose it's not that big a deal if you can pay it off in under 2 years but 7.5% is tough.
by bigred77
Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire By 58, 59, 60??
Replies: 10
Views: 1692

Re: Retire By 58, 59, 60??

I think you may be over estimating your income needs in retirement after your house is paid off and your kids are off the payroll. The things I would do today if I were you: Sell the 2 individual stocks and pay off the mortgage with the proceeds, put the remaining funds in your taxable account. Move...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How & when to sell lots of a single stock with huge capital gains
Replies: 40
Views: 2681

Re: How & when to sell lots of a single stock with huge capital gains

Valuethinker wrote:
So my advice would be to sell and pay the tax. If there is a desire to ride the thing, keep maybe 1/4 to 1/3rd of the original holding.

70% of a gain after tax is still a lot better than no gain at all.

But sell. Then reinvest in broad index funds.


+1

Don't let the tail wag the dog.
by bigred77
Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads not the norm?
Replies: 116
Views: 10118

Re: Bogleheads not the norm?

It doesn't seem like being a Boglehead is about how much you make, but how you handle the amount you make. Plenty of people make and spend 500k a year. A Boglehead would make 500k and save/invest 200k. Plenty of people make and spend 40k a year. A Boglehead would make 40k and save/invest 15k. Or, a...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the market through behavioral finance.
Replies: 51
Views: 3060

Re: Beating the market through behavioral finance.

If the ability to stay the course is difficult, would that not theoretically open up an avenue for hedge funds to exploit? For example if markets go up, then the intrinsic greed of people might cause people to jump in. If markets go down, then the intrinsic attribute of people to panic would cause ...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving 20% into cash
Replies: 32
Views: 2699

Re: Moving 20% into cash

Just like mowing the lawn. When grass growing too tall after the rain, mow the lawn to make it look neat. When grass is getting yellow. I will never mow till the root but keep it at 80% of it's tall. I will water it with cash to make it look green. Image the you neighbor's lawn never get mowed or h...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads not the norm?
Replies: 116
Views: 10118

Re: Bogleheads not the norm?

This is a self selecting group. Most here will tend to be higher income, more financially astute, and have the ability and desire to save and invest a healthy portion of their income. We have people on this board who make "lesser" incomes than others. Who cannot afford to max out a 401k. W...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need investment advice for a high tax bracket NYC resident
Replies: 13
Views: 1324

Re: Need investment advice for high tax bracket NYC resident

1. You imply that you want your taxable investments to remain allocated 100% bonds/fixed income. Is that just the current $300,000 or does that include your taxable savings going forward? It doesn't have to be %100 FI at all but I don't know any other liquid/low cost/accessible tax exempt investmen...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on housing crash
Replies: 60
Views: 3042

Re: BH thoughts on housing crash

2) I would make out in good profit by selling right now, but I just hate the idea of all those payments going to almost interest only. Thanks! Those payments were primarily applied to mortgage interest but your house appreciated by 100k. You benefited from the purchase decision. Whatever you bought...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone have $0 in cash (except for bills), not even an emergency fund?
Replies: 45
Views: 2187

Re: Does anyone have $0 in cash (except for bills), not even an emergency fund?

I did not have a dedicated emergency fund for the past 8/9 years. In an emergency I just figured I could use a credit card, HELOC, or sell invested assets within my Roth IRA and remove them. I didn't like the drag cash made on a portfolio. I preferred to pay down debt or invest all funds above and b...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2025 and let it ride or modify?
Replies: 12
Views: 1059

Re: 2025 and let it ride or modify?

I think that target date fund and asset allocation is perfectly appropriate for you. I would only make a change if you have a justifiable reason to move to an asset allocation that is heavier than bonds, that you thoroughly understand and can articulate, and are willing to stick with your new choice...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do you go to restaurants?
Replies: 229
Views: 14771

Re: Why do you go to restaurants?

Well, you could choose not to judge and simply give everyone a 20% tip, irrespective of service quality. But it would be much better still if restaurants completely got rid of tipping altogether. (They could adjust prices and wages accordingly.) This is the system in many countries. And in the US, ...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need quick advice: Pay full year's rent or large security deposit?
Replies: 47
Views: 2367

Re: Need quick advice: Pay full year's rent or large security deposit?

remomnyc wrote:I would choose option B if landlord agrees that security deposit will be applied to rent starting in month 8 such that at maturity there will only one month security remaining available to be applied to damages.


This seems like a worthwhile compromise.
by bigred77
Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Decumulation phase help
Replies: 14
Views: 1548

Re: Decumulation phase help

1/3 fixed income and 2/3 equity seems appropriate. 60/40 is a classic allocation that we've all seen. I think picking one of these targets (lets use 60/40 as an example) and trying to get their over the next 10 years by using new contributions to rebalance is a worthwhile plan. Yes 100% of your cont...
by bigred77
Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1884

Re: 3 fund portfolio

I will go one further and propose the following. Sell all current positions (depending on capital gains in taxable accounts), annuitize what is needed to meet current income needs with a SPIA (annuitize the USAA one and then buy a second to meet 100% of current needs), and then put everything else i...
by bigred77
Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficent Frontier Stock / Bond curve for foriegn markets?
Replies: 20
Views: 1177

Re: Efficent Frontier Stock / Bond curve for foriegn markets?

My advice is to diversify across asset classes. Using Target Date and Target Risk funds as templates for your own portfolio will give you a rough idea of how to construct a portfolio. For example, Vanguard is recommending that 40% of a stock portfolio and 30% of a bond portfolio should be invested ...
by bigred77
Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need investment advice for a high tax bracket NYC resident
Replies: 13
Views: 1324

Re: Need investment advice for high tax bracket NYC resident

Questions: 1) Given the tax bracket I'm in, I would like to invest $300k cash (leave $25k in Synchrony for 4 months emergency) most tax efficiently way. What is the best allocation strategy for tax-exempt bonds with %3+ after tax and costs return? Any strategy for higher interest rate regime in fut...
by bigred77
Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: College student looking for advice
Replies: 24
Views: 1239

Re: College student looking for advice

OP, I would take the time to read all of the recommended books on the wiki. Especially the e-book for millennials "If you can" by Bernstein. The only difference for you is a few extra zeroes in your starting accounts. The underlying fundamentals and strategies are still relevant for you. I...
by bigred77
Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to company 's profit?
Replies: 11
Views: 1113

Re: What happens to company 's profit?

Thanks for the additional commentary, Valuethinker. ... In a "leveraged recapitalization" a Newco (SPV) acquires the company, thus realizing cash for existing investors (who own similar stakes in the Newco, but it is encumbered with more debt). Is that the same as a dividend recapitalizat...
by bigred77
Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which luxury auto brand depreciates the most?
Replies: 38
Views: 4643

Re: Which luxury auto brand depreciates the most?

For the boglehead luxury car enthusiast (the German brands) it makes the most sense to buy 3 yrs old, maybe 30k miles, CPO. You can find almost 40% depreciation. (This is my adopted strategy) For the boglehead utilitarian (the Japanese brands) it makes the most sense to buy new. The depreciation cur...
by bigred77
Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 4618

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

Its reasonable however to plan for the worst, hope for the best. 2% SWR is a fine target (50x) providing you don't have to work too much longer/harder to get there. Missing out on years when you and your partner were well and fit enough to enjoy the proceeds of your retirement savings/planning to i...

Go to advanced search