Search found 6480 matches

by madbrain
Tue Mar 19, 2024 6:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Career ending, getting fired. Can we FIRE ?
Replies: 152
Views: 22202

Re: Career ending, getting fired. Can we FIRE ?

Not to be picky. But, Recording expense is after you spend the money. Watching the expense is before you spend the money. There is a subtle but important difference. For example, I use my spending account balance to decide whether to buy a large item. This is watching expenses. KlangFool I really do both. I shop the prices of almost everything I buy to death. Certainly always for large items, but not only. I could tell you the price of most of our regular Costco food purchases off the top of my head. I always buy the yogurts that are on sale that week. When the cat litter is on sale, I may buy several hundred pounds worth of it at once. I shop home/auto insurers frequently, for example, as it is such a big and growing recurring expense. I ...
by madbrain
Tue Mar 19, 2024 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?
Replies: 38
Views: 2598

Re: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?

A house with 70% more living space than the typical home in the neighborhood is being penalized by the neighborhood. Is $400/ft vs $600/ft or $700/ft the right penalty, I couldn’t know that. But a similar thing appears often, someone who puts hundreds of thousands in remolding and updates to their home, where the neighborhoods haven’t, and actually goes in contract for the amount the seller thinks it’s worth. Only after going under contract, the appraiser gives the home a modest bump because the “overbuilt” for the neighborhood comps. You could be right that the average home size in the neighborhood has an impact. There are homes of similar size on nearby streets, but few on the market or recently sold. I found one home 18% larger that sol...
by madbrain
Tue Mar 19, 2024 5:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
Replies: 97
Views: 11179

Re: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?

US health insurance plans are not universal coverage? Particularly if you are under 65? A serious condition or an expensive treatment (my aunt had a drug that was costing over $100k pa, but Provincial medical care did pay for it). The problem is that many plans have deductibles. Sometimes high deductibles. Many can't afford the deductible. Even if they can meet it, the out of pocket expenses don't stop there. An HDHP can have a maximum OOP cost of $8050 for a single person in 2024. Or $16,100 for family plans. It's pretty crazy. The plans are obviously inadequate for people with expensive medical conditions. But employers favor them, and sometimes, that's the only choice you get. It can make sense to change employers for better coverage, o...
by madbrain
Tue Mar 19, 2024 3:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home insurance
Replies: 7
Views: 622

Re: Home insurance

Metsfan91 wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2024 12:19 am Yes, it should...Some insurers allow you to buy home insurance for a set amount regardless of what the actual cost might be. Farmer's insurance comes to mind.
I wish that was the case. I am with Farmer's in CA. They estimate the replacement cost. I have no say in it. It was the same with Safeco and Mercury before.
The only thing I can change is the deductible. Currently at $10k.
by madbrain
Tue Mar 19, 2024 2:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?
Replies: 38
Views: 2598

Re: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?

Actually my fear/suspicion is that the estimate is impacting the selling price. A self-fulfilling prophecy. Yes. A lot of buyers and sellers will look up that number. That is problematic if it is way off, as I think it is for my home. An inflated estimate favors sellers. An underestimate favors buyers. Zillow used to buy and sell homes themselves, so they had a bit of a conflict of interest. They lost a bunch of money overpaying for homes. Guess their model wasn't so accurate:) They no longer buy or sell homes directly AFAIK. One interesting thing about the Zillow estimate I learned is that the historical estimate can change as their algorithm is updated. And they do tweak it. Whether or not this makes sense could be argued either way I su...
by madbrain
Tue Mar 19, 2024 1:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The NAR settlement doesn't mean what you think what it means
Replies: 44
Views: 2650

Re: The NAR settlement doesn't mean what you think what it means

I actually think I was the "victim" of steering by my buyer's agent. I found a listed home which looked promising, and my agent immediately dismissed it, bringing up various criticisms. For other homes, he simply pointed out the features but never favored one house or another, leaving it to my personal preference. I found out from the neighbors that the owner was economically distressed and involved in a short sale or foreclosure, so maybe the buyer's agent commission was reduced. I was overall very satisfied with my agent and found a house I love, but my Spidey-sense suggests there was a conflict of interest with that particular house. Short sales can take a very long time to close on, with lender approvals. Foreclosure is the o...
by madbrain
Tue Mar 19, 2024 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?
Replies: 38
Views: 2598

Re: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?

DoubleComma wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2024 12:28 am Sounds like you got a screaming deal on the buy, so in reality who cares what Zillow says it’s worth.
Yes, I think we did. It matters because I'm on disability and most of my income is gone.
If we ever want to downsize, the sales proceeds would only buy a much smaller home in the same area, which wouldn't make sense financially. It essentially would force us to not just downsize but move away from the area altogether to reduce housing costs. There are very few homes at $400/sq ft in the bay area. Hopefully, the portfolio can last us until age 62 and we can take a reverse mortgage then. But this is not a given.
by madbrain
Tue Mar 19, 2024 12:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The NAR settlement doesn't mean what you think what it means
Replies: 44
Views: 2650

Re: The NAR settlement doesn't mean what you think what it means

anagram wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2024 12:10 am I even linked to an article that lists salaries as did another poster.

Maybe one should be comparing commission rates rather than salaries ;) baristas probably don't get 3-6% commission on coffee sales ,
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The NAR settlement doesn't mean what you think what it means
Replies: 44
Views: 2650

Re: The NAR settlement doesn't mean you think what it means

Josh5000 wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:47 pm If this reduce the cost of home purchase and/or helping homeowners keep some of their equity, I am all for it.
Yes, lower transaction costs for homes would be a good thing. Homes are still high ER as far as investments go. I don't foresee high frequency trading of homes anytime soon with low bid/ask spreads, as we have for ETFs.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?
Replies: 38
Views: 2598

Re: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?

Zillow checks all sales in the area and scales for square footage. So why is the model zeroing in on my home at $400/ sq ft vs $700/sq ft for all the neighboring homes on the same street ? We are talking about a 2500 sq ft home for $1.75M and 4600 sq ft for $1.84M. The $700/ sq ft holds true for most of the listings in the zip code, too. For very large homes it goes down a bit to $600. But there is not a single one anywhere near $400/sq ft. Amongst the houses sold there will be some with views, some with solar panels, etc Agree that some homes will have some of those features, but not all homes will have all these features. Especially smaller homes that can't for space reasons. You can't physically fit 70 solar panels on a 2500 sq ft home'...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?
Replies: 38
Views: 2598

Re: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?

Setting aside those cases when Zillow has the wrong info, obviously they don't know the specifics of each house (Does it have a view ? Needs TLC ? etc.). The point price may be off the mark, but the price fork is pretty accurate. The pricing model really only works if there are comparable homes for sale or recently sold, though. When there aren't, it is really quite difficult. For my size home in the area, there are very few. Many home features cannot be input into Zillow even if you claim the home. I claimed mine a long time ago, but there is no way to reflect that it's got a massive $70k solar PV system big enough to cover the home and 2 EVs. The very efficient 10-zones HVAC cannot be added to Zillow, either even though it means we have ...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another 'should I get solar' question
Replies: 64
Views: 4356

Re: Another 'should I get solar' question

cmr79 wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 9:22 pm The penetration of rooftop solar in the Northeast is so, so much lower than California that I'm not sure that expecting net metering to be aggressively phased down the same way that California is currently doing is reasonable.
Utilities may not push back to the same extent indeed, with lower solar market share. What happened with NEM3.0 in CA is drastic. But less drastic pushbacks could very well still happen, like the move from NEM 1.0 to 2.0 was.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
Replies: 97
Views: 11179

Re: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?

The most obvious examples are chronic conditions that degrade one's ability to take care of themselves, and you have to hire in home health aids. This could be cognitive decline where you can't be trusted to turn off the stove, take your medications, get to appointments, etc. Or physical ailments that mean you can't bathe yourself, dress yourself, grocery shop, get yourself to appointments. None of that is covered by health insurance. Yes, indeed. Those could be considered long term care, though. One would end up in a nursing home if no family member could take care of it. My mother took care of my grandmother with Alzheimer for 15 years. Grandma was in conservatorship, and my mother was getting paid for the care. But it was extremely hard...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?
Replies: 38
Views: 2598

Re: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?

My home is a unique mansion at the edge of city and county line. It is 65% bigger than my nearest neighbor's home, which is a much newer prefab home, but still large. Zillow puts the price difference at less than 10%. Redfin estimates a 5% difference only, with both prices being lower. I tried to use the Zillow pricing tool at https://www.zillow.com/sellerlanding/pricingtool/ Result : we don't have enough information to price this home. Same for my neighbor's address. I think the estimate is worth exactly what I'm paying for it. Some homes will be more difficult to price than others. If I trust Zillow, my home has one of the lowest per sq ft price in the bay area. It certainly did when I bought it foreclosed . The low purchase price probabl...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another 'should I get solar' question
Replies: 64
Views: 4356

Re: Another 'should I get solar' question

-Expected to generate 10,300 kWh / yr (this is the key metric, not the rated DC/AC size) Yes, it's a key metric. But it comes from an estimate, which has a lot of input parameters. Some of them may be correct - or not. System designers can make honest mistakes in the production estimates - or not so honest. It can pay to double-check things for yourself in PVwatts ;) For instance, OP had 2 different quotes with different size systems, but very similar estimated production. I'm willing to bet one of the estimates is off. -Retail electricity cost: $0.37/kWh (full net metering in MA, so usage and production offset 1:1 over year) -Electricity value / yr: $3,800 -SREC value: $0.03/kWh (MA subsidy) = $309 -Total Annual Revenue: ~$4,100 -Payback ...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Direct real estate vs mega backdoor Roth 401K
Replies: 2
Views: 230

Re: Direct real estate vs mega backdoor Roth 401K

sailaway wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:58 pm Does your MBR process involve rolling to an IRA? If so, I believe you can purchase real estate in a self directed IRA.

I prefer the MBR, but I thoroughly detest landlording, so perhaps not the most balanced opinion.
Buying real estate in IRA is fraught with perils.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/p ... operty.asp

I would not do that if I were op.

Actually, I wouldn't buy an investment property, period. Just do the MBR and hold a Bogleheads portfolio.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another 'should I get solar' question
Replies: 64
Views: 4356

Re: Another 'should I get solar' question

Valuethinker wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:09 pm If you have to finance, then use a HELOC - at which point the cost may just make it not worthwhile.
Most HELOC rates are currently too high at >8%. There are solar loans you can get from a credit union which are much lower rate, but still currently in the 6.25% range. Rates will likely go down over time, though. But either is a bit too high a rate right now.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ACA subsidy Kaiser vs HealthInsurance.org--variance?
Replies: 7
Views: 295

Re: ACA subsidy Kaiser vs HealthInsurance.org--variance?

Cg2 wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:16 pm Then maybe we’ll move from the Midwest to California……to save money!!! :sharebeer
It's possible you might if you aren't choosing one of the highest cost areas of CA :)
But more likely some of your other costs would increase as well.
No telling how long those 600% FPL subsidies will last either as CA is running a budget deficit currently.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ACA subsidy Kaiser vs HealthInsurance.org--variance?
Replies: 7
Views: 295

Re: ACA subsidy Kaiser vs HealthInsurance.org--variance?

Cg2 wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:48 pm Thx! Says same as Kaiser. Seems too good to be true!
It's true for 2024 and 2025. But probably may not be true after that, if the TCJA is allowed to expire, under current law. If it expires, then there would no longer be any subsidy for income above 400% FPL, which yours is currently.
In some states, there are additional subsidies also. California subsidizes up to 600% FPL.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another 'should I get solar' question
Replies: 64
Views: 4356

Re: Another 'should I get solar' question

NorCalHiker wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:36 pm
madbrain wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 5:12 pm
When string inverters fail, you have to go on the roof to replace it. It's more involved. You don't lose your whole array at once, though, so you can wait until you have multiple failures to pay a contractor to install the replacement parts.
I think this is a typo. Microinverters require you go to on the roof but string inverters are often right next to the panel so quite easy to replace. While micro inverters do require more labor, Enphase at least claims to have quite a low failure rate within the warranty period.
Thanks. It was. I just fixed it.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is sewer insurance advisable when renting a house?
Replies: 7
Views: 507

Re: Is sewer insurance advisable when renting a house?

This will vary greatly by state and insurance policy. In California, I think the landlord would be responsible for it. The house would not be considered livable, otherwise. The tenant could make repairs and withhold the amount from their rent, if the landlord doesn't fix it promptly. You also have the option of moving out and withholding rent until the issue is fixed, or terminating the lease if it doesn't get fixed. Even homeowner's insurance typically does not cover sewer line damage from normal wear and tear. I have spent nearly $10k in 14 years on sewer line rebuild/repairs. My current deductible is $10k, anyway. The water company keeps trying to sell water & sewer line insurance. When I looked at it, there was something like a $2k ...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?
Replies: 55
Views: 4274

Re: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?

smitcat wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:09 pm If anyone is signing with an agent they owe a commision.
Depends what's in the contracts that were signed.
The seller would probably owe a commission to their own agent.
The buyer would probably owe a commission to their own agent.
In the past, the seller's agent would share their commission with the buyer's agent, if any. If I understand correctly, this type of arrangement may be going away.
An issue arises when only one party has an agent.
If you buy or sell without an agent involved at all and go it alone you owe nothing.
Of course. More power to you if you can, and your buyer doesn't use an agent either.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?
Replies: 55
Views: 4274

Re: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?

smitcat wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:02 pm Only if the buyer comes thru someone else - if they don't then you are AOK.
Even if they do, it may not necessarily the seller's responsibility to pay the commission with the new ruling.
Buyer could pay their agent out of their own pocket, or finance it into the mortgage, if the property appraises high enough, ie. higher than the sales price agreed to by the seller. It does pose a problem if the property doesn't appraise at 100% + commission.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 11259

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

Just curious OP, was the 35K/yr after tax? Then it would be something like 42-45K, doable with that kind of money. You would need nowhere near $45k to net $35k after taxes, even in the highest income tax states, and even if all $45k was ordinary income. Taxes are very progressive. The OP's spending is very low ! Remember that retirees don't pay FICA taxes. Some significant portion of the OP's spending would come from Roth contribution basis, and taxable account basis, which are taxed at 0% by both federal & state. The OP would also be in the 0% federal capital gains tax bracket. The only portions being taxed as ordinary income would be interest & dividend income in taxable, and traditional IRA withdrawal (likely through SEPP). It's...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
Replies: 97
Views: 11179

Re: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?

Sometimes stuff isn’t coded correctly. This has become a bigger problem since the pandemic. I waste more time calling my insurance company and provider to sort out stuff improperly coded than I have in the past. It’s a mess. Another frustrating thing about healthcare. This is one reason I'm with Kaiser. All providers in a Kaiser building are always in-network and services are covered, with only a known fixed copay due upfront. There are no claim forms to file, and no denials after the fact. With all the provider visits and meds I have, I would probably average multiple claims per week if I had to submit them. The only time I do have to submit claims is for emergency out-of-area/international claims. It does take time for them to processed,...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 11259

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

OP, you said your money is in IRAs but you have not explained (or maybe I missed it) how you plan to bridge a 16.5 year gap between 43 and 59.5? You are retiring so incredibly early that you need a substantial amount in a taxable brokerage. Yes, details are missing, but it does not really matter with 50x expenses. The worst case is that the entire $1.75M is in a traditional IRA, and all withdrawals would be taxed as ordinary income. In this case, OP could start SEPP, and the annual amount would still be greater than $35K using the most conservative RMD method. In reality, there will be a mix of Roth contributions withdrawals, capital gains, dividends, etc, depending on the asset location. At some point OP may have to start SEPP on Roth IRA...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another 'should I get solar' question
Replies: 64
Views: 4356

Re: Another 'should I get solar' question

Anybody here use Sunrun via Costco (https://www.costco.com/sunrun-residential-solar-systems.html)? I have not used it. Their reviews overall are not very good. From what I understand, they push leases and power purchase agreements pretty hard. Those will be very unfavorable for the consumer, in general. I would recommend a purchase, or using your own financing if it is cheap enough. I don't think the large solar installers like Tesla have better customer service. They may have the advantage of being more likely to still exist in the future. But there are a lot of horror stories about Tesla customer service. Solar PV systems generally don't need much service. The exception is inverters. String inverters tend to last 10-15 years, and will ne...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another 'should I get solar' question
Replies: 64
Views: 4356

Re: Another 'should I get solar' question

Looks like a win if you are there 7+ years. Don't forget to 'size up' for an electric car, even if you don't think you'll get one I'd size up for one You can use micro inverters and basically add any capacity you want over time. I did 3 separate solar installs in 14 years. With string inverters, there is less flexibility. If there is shading, micro inverters make a lot of sense. Is this true? I understand the micro inverters, but ultimately everything comes to a common A/C bus, yes? And the size of the A/C bus determines max size of the array? Yes, there is a single AC bus which has its own overall limit. I had to get a PVL main panel which can accommodate 100 amps of solar on a dedicated bus I still have 20% of 200amps, or 40amps, to add ...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 11259

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

Back to the OP's point, if they are really intending to go this route, I would make sure to do zero based budgeting and to match fixed expenses with TIPS, Treasury bonds, or something similar. In the out years I would agree with Taylor and use a SPIA, it might pay out more if it is health rated and your health is poor. If you want to stay a renter, look at communities with rent control or states with rent circuit breakers like California and Oregon, and make sure your apartment qualifies (most new construction doesn't). I looked into SPIAs. Most do not keep up with inflation. I could not find one that was medically rated at my age. If I were OP, I would not consider one, especially at current age. I'm of similar age with a bit larger portf...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 11259

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

So, if you don't have your housing costs locked down or you don't have backup options like leaving the United States I'd be wary of your plan. Housing costs are never really locked down. Owning a home involves paying property taxes, maintaining it, insuring it. All of these costs can go up significantly over time. It's not just fixed principal & interest. The insurance in particular is going through the roof in some states like CA and FL. I agree with you that moving is extremely disruptive. I would not want to move in retirement if at all possible. Moving when you own a home involves transaction costs if you sell the home, and other costs if you buy another. If you want to limit your housing costs, renting and moving to limit the rent...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 11259

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

The risk is unknown health issues given their age. The healthcare will be covered by Medicaid or ACA. The cost will not be the issue. And if they buy a home, lumpy expenses. Yes, but that is a completely separate issue. Going from employer healthcare to ACA adds expenses. Medicaid would not add costs. I just priced a Silver plan for a 43 year old with $35k AGI in my VHCOL state. It came to $105/month. This is not zero, but not highly material. And op will probably have less than $35k AGI due to taxable and Roth basis. And they’ll need a plan for early withdrawal from tax deferred. I wouldn’t be shocked if this adds $5k-$15k to their expenses. It’s still doable, but it will increase their expenses to about $50k. $15k ? Definitely not. $37,5...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another 'should I get solar' question
Replies: 64
Views: 4356

Re: Another 'should I get solar' question

wilked wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:42 pm Looks like a win if you are there 7+ years.

Don't forget to 'size up' for an electric car, even if you don't think you'll get one I'd size up for one
You can use micro inverters and basically add any capacity you want over time. I did 3 separate solar installs in 14 years.
With string inverters, there is less flexibility.
If there is shading, micro inverters make a lot of sense.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another 'should I get solar' question
Replies: 64
Views: 4356

Re: Another 'should I get solar' question

Hi. Thanks again for all of the previous input. I now have 2 (fairly similar) proposals: 1. cash price of about $41k, $29k after incentives. Approx. 14kW system with approx. 14,500 kWh 2. cash price of about $45k, $32k after incentives. slightly smaller system of 11.9kW generating 13,908 kWh (+$11k net if I want a battery) my actual/historical spending on electric has been: monthly average full year 2013 $249.54 $2,994.44 2014 $260.93 $3,131.15 2015 $271.04 $3,252.45 2016 $223.17 $2,678.03 2017 $230.63 $2,767.57 2018 $245.31 $2,943.72 2019 $244.21 $2,930.48 2020 $271.81 $3,261.77 2021 $267.95 $3,215.35 2022 $279.80 $3,357.59 2023 $293.27 $3,519.26 $257.97 $3,095.62 January and February of this year were around 50% higher than Jan/Feb of la...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another 'should I get solar' question
Replies: 64
Views: 4356

Re: Another 'should I get solar' question

eigenperson wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 8:49 am For example, you correctly pointed out that $30K spent up front would grow to $100K after 25 years at 5% interest
You would be paying some taxes on that interest, though, thus would end up with less than $100k.

Taxes would apply on reinvested electricity bill savings as well, of course.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another 'should I get solar' question
Replies: 64
Views: 4356

Re: Another 'should I get solar' question

wilked wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 12:25 pm It looks like from other posts you are in Connecticut.

Their program is here https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/conne ... nt-program

From what I read, it's basically net metering...
The program looks pretty favorable for solar users.
There is a high probability that the rates will change over time, though, in ways that are less favorable for solar. Best to not assume the rate of return will be constant for 25 years.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
Replies: 97
Views: 11179

Re: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?

afan wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 2:34 pm There are many expenses one encounters as a result of severe or chronic illnesses that are not covered by health insurance. It is not a matter of the insurance paying out a maximum amount. The insurance company never pays anything because it is not a covered expense. For those, the patient has to come up with the money.
Would you mind giving some examples? I have a panoply of chronic conditions. The only thing that comes to mind is that some over the counter drugs and supplements are not covered.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 11259

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 2:18 pm
RE: SS, to amass $1.7 million OP likely made a pretty decent income which likely after 20 years is sitting well into the mid 2nd bend point. At 70 OP can likely pull $25k or more. Only OP can tell us their exact data.
OP mentioned bad genes. It's possible that a portion of the $1.7M net worth came from an inheritance and wouldn't count towards SS. Regardless, even with $0 in SS benefits, OP will still be more than fine at 50x expenses.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 11259

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

If they qualify for Medicaid, then they get what Medicaid covers. For anything that Medicaid does not cover, they are out of luck. Not everyone who has little money qualifies for Medicaid. If they have too much to qualify for Medicaid, then they might be able to buy an ACA plan. If they can afford it. Many people who are above Medicaid limits cannot afford ACA plans. They go without coverage and go without care. The safety net is very leaky. In most states, with Medicaid expansion there is no asset test. You can have a billion dollars worth of BRK.B stock yielding 0% and be on Medicaid, if you wanted to. Not a choice one is likely to make, but perfectly legal. ACA plans are subsidized, based on income. If your income is above the Medicaid ...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
Replies: 97
Views: 11179

Re: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?

The only ones I have heard about are medical related. The medical expenses get much higher than expected is typical. They develop a medical condition that they didn't expect. The other is they have a kid that ends up with a health condition that requires 24/7 care. I know someone in this case that had enough to retire but kept working because of the medical costs related to their kid/adult. They wanted more than enough for after they passed to help with the continued care of their kid. I'm a little confused by this. Doesn't the Affordable Care Act require that there be a cap on out of pocket medical expenses, beyond which the insurance company must pay 100% of all medical expenses? My recollection is that there is both an annual cap and a ...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 11259

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

fortunefavored wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 1:50 pm #2 is offset by almost any trivial income will massively shift success rates. Even 10 hours/week at minimum wage
This assumes the ability and willingness to go back to work. That option may not be available anymore if one becomes disabled in the future. And OP doesn't want to work again. Frankly, I don't see why this option is even on the table when one has 50x expenses saved.
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 11259

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

Health related cost will dry out 1.75M very easily. Besides some insanely unlucky sequence of bad luck, tell me how? Virtually any health insurance has out of pocket maxes that even if tapped every year on top of their planned spend the OP won’t run out of money And frankly any health related thing that would cause such a sequence will involve losing a job as well People with chronic illnesses have health care costs that are not covered by health insurance. Health insurance does not cover all costs. The out of pocket maximum only applies to covered benefits. The uncovered amounts can be quite expensive. They are responsible for the large number of people who go bankrupt due to medical costs. Not all of them were individuals who lacked heal...
by madbrain
Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Extra Low Mileage Drivers: How much do you spend on your car?
Replies: 48
Views: 4202

Re: Bad writing

PottedPlant wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2024 11:40 pm Our warranty is 4 years. Or, for us, about 10K miles. The battery warranty is 10 years. But we only charge 25 times a year so I do not expect to have a battery life problem. This is all new. Mentally we are prepared to own scrap metal in 2032.

I just don’t expect a lot of repairs for years 5-10.
And I will avoid the dealer if I can.
Makes sense. Your battery will be fine.
Unless you total the car, it probably won't be scrap metal.

Repairs are really unpredictable. I had none on my 2015 Volt until last month. It was a $3k repair which is a lot for a car worth $9k. Certainly raised my cost per mile. This is the lower mileage car.
by madbrain
Sun Mar 17, 2024 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Extra Low Mileage Drivers: How much do you spend on your car?
Replies: 48
Views: 4202

Re: Ignored, but not forgotten

PottedPlant wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2024 10:30 pm $0.06/mile for electricity fuel.
$0.16/mile for tires $1600/10000 miles. My worst case estimate.
$zero oil
$0.02/mile for car washes. I use the self-service one.
$zero parking. OK, not zero, but what is $12/2500 miles?
$zero tolls. I have never paid a road toll in my state in 40+ years.

I have no feel for out-of-warranty repairs. After all, we won’t hit the 25K mile mark for another 8-1/2 years.
So that brings you to $3.95/mile ;) Quite a lot.

Surprised your warranty will last as long as 8.5 years. Is that for the whole car or just the battery/electric drive train ?
by madbrain
Sun Mar 17, 2024 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Extra Low Mileage Drivers: How much do you spend on your car?
Replies: 48
Views: 4202

Re: Extra Low Mileage Drivers: How much do you spend on your car?

I have 21st Century (will become Toggle next month) and even though my cost has slowly increased with every bill over the last 10 years ($342 total in 2013, $544 total in 2023), every time I get a quote from another company it's higher. Including the pay-per-mile insurance. I'll check rates again next month to see if I can get a better deal because it's been a few years since I got any quotes. I have State Farm renter's insurance and the quote for auto was significantly higher than 21st. Yours is still pretty low. Ours is $3600/year for 2 cars with Farmer's. One is high mileage, the other low mileage. I don't think the pay per mile option would work for us. I would lose multi policy discounts on auto/home/umbrella. And the umbrella might b...
by madbrain
Sun Mar 17, 2024 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cloud based backup options for sensitive files
Replies: 92
Views: 7404

Re: Cloud based backup options for sensitive files

If I email myself something private, is it any less protected than our doctors discussing your most personal issues, sending documents, etc? I guess I'm asking...is "my" email less secure than a hospital's, bank, mortgage processor, lender, payroll system, etc? Now, user error...that's a huge security risk. One typo in an outgoing email and the world knows your business. :D Most e-mail is not end to end encrypted. Unfortunately, schemes like PGP and S/MIME have proven too difficult to manage for common mortals, and are not universal. Email is usually encrypted at the transport level. That prevents random eavesdropping, but your email provider still has access to the plaintext, if you are worried about them. Other mail servers bet...
by madbrain
Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Awesome Portfolio: 20% Stocks..20% Bonds..20% Cash..20%Real Estate, 20%Gold
Replies: 38
Views: 3943

Re: Awesome Portfolio: 20% Stocks..20% Bonds..20% Cash..20%Real Estate, 20%Gold

slondr wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2024 2:44 pm
rule of law guy wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2024 1:56 pm "For that matter, as much in cash and real estate as in equities. April 1 isn’t for another couple of weeks."

again, depends on your perspective/objectives. cash earns an easy 5% now. hence we have about double cash to equities now. we like distributions btw
While holding cash for that 5%, you missed out on 27% return from stocks last year, and 8% so far this year.
Yes. And 5% wasn't the rate for liquid cash year ago.
There was also 3.2% inflation.

Over long periods of time, cash usually underperforms inflation. It also underperforms most bonds. There are good reasons to hold cash, but not 20% of the portfolio.
by madbrain
Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Extra Low Mileage Drivers: How much do you spend on your car?
Replies: 48
Views: 4202

Re: A stupid amount

We bought as new car in November 2022. It replaced a 2007 car. We drive 2500 miles/year. Annual costs right now are: $1000 DMV $3000 Insurance $5000 Depreciation (linear $50K over 10 years) Yes, $3.67/mile is crazy. But we want the convenience and we had the money for the new car. $1,000 a year for DMV or registration? That's crazy! What part of the country are you in? I'm in TX and it's $75. Yes, $3.67 per mile is crazy too. TravelforFun I'm going to guess CA. And yes, the the vehicle cost affects it. We paid $554 last year for 2 cars last year. 2015 Volt and 2017 Bolt. The amount goes down each year based on depreciation estimate. It was higher when cars were new. PottedPlant forgot many costs in the the $3.67/mile. Gas and/or electricit...
by madbrain
Sun Mar 17, 2024 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pretty set financially, but considering relocation to VHCOL (Bay Area) for the career/adventure
Replies: 20
Views: 2220

Re: Pretty set financially, but considering relocation to VHCOL (Bay Area) for the career/adventure

bendix wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2024 6:36 pm
For 20k and a lot of maybes you consider to move to the Bay Area? I find this entirely crazy.
That part doesn't add up, for sure. Most of that 20k will be eaten by CA income tax. And of course, that won't be the OP's only cost of living increase.

That said, OP would still be fine on $260k. But probably saving less than before.
by madbrain
Sun Mar 17, 2024 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Utilities cost?
Replies: 57
Views: 4087

Re: Utilities cost?

Beensabu wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2024 12:43 pm And it's crazy to me that is so normal in our society that you simply don't believe it's possible to use much much less.
I very much do believe it's possible to use much less than average, within reason. 1/2 or 1/3 of average is absolutely possible. 1/8 strains credulity. We may be beating a dead horse, at this point.
by madbrain
Sun Mar 17, 2024 1:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel Medical Insurance--Primary or Secondary, Which is "Better"?
Replies: 16
Views: 1235

Re: Travel Medical Insurance--Primary or Secondary, Which is "Better"?

OnTrack2020 wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2024 10:02 pm Ugh, I didn't state that correctly---meant to say we have no out-of-network coverage,except in the case of emergency.

The travel medical policy did offer some additional items that a typical ACA plan does not, such as medical evac and repatriation of remains.
Emergencies is what you would be mainly concerned about during a trip. Not treatment for any ongoing chronic conditions.

I think repatriation implies a foreign country, and thus wouldn't apply in the US.

Not sure about medical evacuation. Seems like it should be covered by ACA in the US. If not, you would need some travel insurance coverage. A credit card might be enough, if you rent a car with the CC. Check your card issuer benefits.