Search found 841 matches

by smectym
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges
Replies: 35
Views: 3270

Re: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges

“The worst thing you can do with insurance is try to time it,” Taleb, a distinguished professor of risk engineering at New York University, said in an interview Monday on Bloomberg Television. “If you don’t have tail insurance, you don’t have a portfolio. Your portfolio is going to blow up.” https:...
by smectym
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges
Replies: 35
Views: 3270

Re: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges

“The worst thing you can do with insurance is try to time it,” Taleb, a distinguished professor of risk engineering at New York University, said in an interview Monday on Bloomberg Television. “If you don’t have tail insurance, you don’t have a portfolio. Your portfolio is going to blow up.” https:...
by smectym
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Law School Savings Account
Replies: 15
Views: 893

Re: Law School Savings Account

Yes, we did the 529, but started many years back for kid who plans to enter LS this fall. Not sure 529 is relevant as a new option if you’re starting this fall: just keep the money in a stable account that won’t go down. $14,000 is a lot better than nothing, and good luck
by smectym
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors have a hard time doing nothing?
Replies: 53
Views: 3883

Re: Why do investors have a hard time doing nothing?

Human nature: Millions of years have hard wired our brains to feel the urge to "do something" when stuff happens. That, coupled to recency bias: mental image pops up of whatever just happened being deemed to continue. Crash will get worse or the opposite, as in performance chasing. Well if you’re r...
by smectym
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors have a hard time doing nothing?
Replies: 53
Views: 3883

Re: Why do investors have a hard time doing nothing?

Human nature: Millions of years have hard wired our brains to feel the urge to "do something" when stuff happens. That, coupled to recency bias: mental image pops up of whatever just happened being deemed to continue. Crash will get worse or the opposite, as in performance chasing. Well if you’re r...
by smectym
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 138
Views: 21561

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

If you really, really need more bonds in a taxable account I guess 0.2% real is better than TIPS if you can accept the 1-year lockup and the 3-month interest penalty if sold before the 5 year mark. Although you can currently expect to beat that with nominal direct CDs if you can accept the risk of ...
by smectym
Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Kostohryz right?
Replies: 30
Views: 2314

Re: Another massive decline is coming - Sounds logical or ‘nobody knows nothing’ ?

The Fed kicked the can a few hundred feet down the road. It may take us awhile to locate it. Yes, and while “nobody knows nothin’” is self-referentially ignorant, all predictions are folly. What we do “know,” though, is that a market that requires this level of Fed intervention to stay afloat is a ...
by smectym
Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks
Replies: 82
Views: 7642

Re: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks

Um, its already making a V. You missed the bottom. Could be, but to the extent the V is primarily a result of magical Fed intervention, I guess I’ll pass for the most part. The Fed is backing up the IG corporate bond market now, yay. The Fed is buying LQD, hooray. My response is to move a lot of ou...
by smectym
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: So what are you cooking
Replies: 267
Views: 15518

Re: So what are you cooking

Now that we are staying home and looking for ways to fill the hours DW and I have been cooking more. Sometimes we take turns making fun , practical items for each other and sometimes , like today, we combined efforts and made a delicious and healthy chili. Of course, I had to cut the onions! The re...
by smectym
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I avoid falling prey to this potential bear market rally?
Replies: 39
Views: 4270

Re: How do I avoid falling prey to this potential bear market rally?

Was going to do backdoor Roth this week, hopefully DCA into a declining market, but the market just keeps going up (futures now up 1.5%). I'm torn between "getting in now at prices 20% below peak" and the fear that this bear market rally will crash and prices will fall up to 40% of peak. I am afrai...
by smectym
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 145
Views: 14074

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

We have a record drop in oil and travel-based stocks right now. Bogle himself said 5% of the portfolio market timing is acceptable. What is the best way to become rich from this? An excellent question. XOM was at 80 something, now at 36 with maybe a 10% dividend...Exxon is loath to cut the div; how...
by smectym
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 145
Views: 14074

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

If you truly and strongly believe that this is true, then the obvious choice is to act on your belief. Specifically, short the market with as much leverage as you can muster. Probably short sell SPX futures. If the S&P goes to 1800, that will give you the most profit. If on the other hand you just ...
by smectym
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 145
Views: 14074

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Nobody knows nothin’. Stay the course. You’re advocating that the poster remain out of the market. Was that your intention? Nobody knows nothin. I love Mr. Bogle, and his anecdote where the " Nobody knows nothin " came from is a great little story... .. but that phrase bugs the heck out of me... "N...
by smectym
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For a 20-year time horizon do bonds make sense any more?
Replies: 98
Views: 5971

Re: For a 20-year time horizon do bonds make sense any more?

I guess this is "market timing" but with bond yields being low for the foreseeable future (and bond NAVs losing value if rates do in fact increase) and stocks being "cheap" (well, up until the last few days, possibly cheap again in a few days or weeks), would it make sense to shift into a more aggr...
by smectym
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book suggestions for a 16 year old
Replies: 47
Views: 2154

Re: Book suggestions for a 16 year old

Probably the best thing you can do to ensure future financial success at age 16 is to get a high SAT score, so I'd recommend studying for that. Market, That’s always been my view as well but, of late the SAT is under attack and is being devalued by many perceived “top colleges.” At any rate, OP is ...
by smectym
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Share what worked in your plan during the crisis
Replies: 103
Views: 6962

Re: Share what worked in your plan during the crisis

A lot of people seem to be re-evaliuating and modifying their plans based on recent events. For those who feel their plans performed well what is a key or two that you can share. cash, which we hold a lot of, has worked well. Treasuries on some days during this rout have been a life-saver; On other...
by smectym
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book suggestions for a 16 year old
Replies: 47
Views: 2154

Re: Book suggestions for a 16 year old

I am 16 years old and live in the midwest. I joined Bogleheads to get portfolio advice and lower the age of the median member. When I first registered, I thought it would be a one-time post-deal. I mean, I just wanted information on how to allocate my Roth best, but I was taken aback by the wisdom ...
by smectym
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 138
Views: 21561

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

Reminder that you can actually buy 20k - 10k personal and 10k in a revocable living trust. For a married couple that means 30k. And you can have all reissued to the trust. Add to that the 5k from an IRS refund and you can do 65k / year. Interesting math. We bought most of ours in the aftermath of 9...
by smectym
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you incorporate I bonds into your retirement plans?
Replies: 25
Views: 1598

Re: How do you incorporate I bonds into your retirement plans?

I'm going to guess that ibonds affect Medicare if/when they are cashed out and interest becomes taxable. I've used ibonds as a combination of 2nd tier emergency/liquidity fund and part of bond allocation. Perhaps have about 9 months expenses worth in total. Last 2 years traded out some 0% fixed ret...
by smectym
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 133
Views: 11714

Re: I won the game but kept playing

If you are close to 100% stocks and over 50, I would be concerned that your 2M could continue dropping to 1M or worse. Of course, selling low sucks. But do you have to go all the way down with the ship? Age in bonds/cash is a good rule imo. $1M? You seriously think -67% is in the cards? If that hap...
by smectym
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone use a one fund portfolio?
Replies: 34
Views: 2925

Re: Does anyone use a one fund portfolio?

100% vwiax when i retire matching a fund to your plan makes staying the course easy, everything that happens just seems to come with the territory. this too will pass can't make changes to a single fund portfolio either, can't get in the black box and play portfolio manager. a man's gotta realize h...
by smectym
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any high bracket investors dumping munis?
Replies: 127
Views: 9377

Re: Any high bracket investors dumping munis?

Recently retired, so no longer “high bracket” but mid-bracket; however, still found Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced (VTMFX) a useful harbor for after-tax assets. But as soon as the lockdown policy crystallized and the inherent financial risks to municipalities emerged I decided to step aside. What was...
by smectym
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you incorporate I bonds into your retirement plans?
Replies: 25
Views: 1598

Re: How do you incorporate I bonds into your retirement plans?

I investigated I-bonds a while back, and after running some numbers, I decided they were not a great strategy for me. Originally, I wanted to utilize the I-bonds as a step in my EF strategy—1st tap savings, then tap I-bonds, and ultimately hit my Roth IRA as a reaction to a nuclear life event. Agai...
by smectym
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 121
Views: 11675

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020. This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am. Investor, you’re a genius. But it doesn’t take one to know that the markets are going to respond very positively to the restarting of the US econom...
by smectym
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For a 20-year time horizon do bonds make sense any more?
Replies: 98
Views: 5971

Re: For a 20-year time horizon do bonds make sense any more?

I guess this is "market timing" but with bond yields being low for the foreseeable future (and bond NAVs losing value if rates do in fact increase) and stocks being "cheap" (well, up until the last few days, possibly cheap again in a few days or weeks), would it make sense to shift into a more aggr...
by smectym
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course
Replies: 48
Views: 4942

Re: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course

After-tax, pretty much as soon as the muni market started to buckle, decided to exit VTMFX until we could see what’s what. Sorry to do so, it’s been a great fund with a low ER, and it will continue to be a solid resource in the future, but the unprecedented hit the crisis will deliver to state and ...
by smectym
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian dividend investor - "panic selling" or rational correction to an inappropriate asset allocation?
Replies: 24
Views: 1901

Re: Australian dividend investor - "panic selling" or rational correction to an inappropriate asset allocation?

Hey mate, fellow Aussie here. While I cant speak to what you SHOULD do your Aunt is a pretty standard Aussie based Stock portfolio approach: Individual Blue chips: banks particularity, Dividend driven, buy and sell adviser and a SMSF which a few years ago where all the rage and now most know anythi...
by smectym
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course
Replies: 48
Views: 4942

Re: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course

In most of our accounts, including the retirement IRA’s, there has been no trading. After-tax, pretty much as soon as the muni market started to buckle, decided to exit VTMFX until we could see what’s what. Sorry to do so, it’s been a great fund with a low ER, and it will continue to be a solid reso...
by smectym
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 170
Views: 9269

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

Age 28, coming up on 29. 100% global cap weighted index fund (VTWAX), with no foreseeable glide path and minimal cash savings at this point. Against my better Boglehead senses, I tried to time the market when this recent bear market started by investing a large portion of my emergency fund. That fa...
by smectym
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it ever worth purchasing an extended warranty for a vehicle?
Replies: 119
Views: 7681

Re: Is it ever worth purchasing an extended warranty for a vehicle?

We typically don't buy the extended warranty. But for our last car (2015 Subaru Forester), when we said no, they just kept reducing the price to some very low number, until we said yes. I can't remember what the final amount was was. But I would guess something like half the original price. Still d...
by smectym
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63047

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I would be shocked if we've hit the bottom. But I would not be shocked to end up being wrong in the end. But I'm planning and expecting that the bottom will be much lower. The most bullish thing I’ve seen yet is all the bearish sentiment on this forum—not that I disagree, but a contrarian might arg...
by smectym
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63047

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I would be shocked if we've hit the bottom. But I would not be shocked to end up being wrong in the end. But I'm planning and expecting that the bottom will be much lower. The most bullish thing I’ve seen yet is all the bearish sentiment on this forum—not that I disagree, but a contrarian might arg...
by smectym
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 12926

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

We need to look for fundamental solutions. Not cheap fixes that will make us feel good for a day, drive the market 5% higher, but then, once reality sets in, the market falls even further. I really hope our lawmakers are up to the challenge, but I sadly fear they are not. We are looking at 30% unem...
by smectym
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young people: Only thing that matters now is maintaining income
Replies: 30
Views: 3260

Re: Young people: Only thing that matters now is maintaining income

Lots of headless chickens flocking around these days. So many posts on people pulling out. Why? This is my 2nd crash. During the 1st crash (in 2008), I was a poor student without money, but I had a little. I went all in back in 2008-2010. And I have seen how the market has bounced back from 2010-20...
by smectym
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young people: Only thing that matters now is maintaining income
Replies: 30
Views: 3260

Re: Young people: Only thing that matters now is maintaining income

Having to live well below your means is a failure by itself. OK, I'll bite. Please explain. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy wiki: "There is no substitute for spending less than you earn. Live below your means." [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] If you always live below your means, you end up ...
by smectym
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22812

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

the key to my mom surviving the great depression follows. Her family had a very large garden. they had a cow my mom or her sister milked daily. they had a relative with a farm they could get meat from. I have an acre of forested land. My neighbor down the road has chickens, geese, and turkeys. I ca...
by smectym
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8969

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

A virus will create a 30+ year bear market? No, but there was a fair amount of evidence that the market was overvalued and that we are entering a period of secular stagnation. The virus just pricked the bubble. It might be like WWI. The killing of a grand duke dis not cause the war, it was just the...
by smectym
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: People who are selling - please post in this thread around the time of your sale (or when you are contemplating selling)
Replies: 17
Views: 1887

Re: People who are selling - please post in this thread around the time of your sale (or when you are contemplating sell

I would love to have one consolidated thread where we can identify when people are selling. This may end up being a decent indicator for when anxiety has reached its height and markets have reached their lows. sold 100% of after-tax VTMBX 2 weeks ago for idiosyncratic reasons re the muni bond compo...
by smectym
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: People who are selling - please post in this thread around the time of your sale (or when you are contemplating selling)
Replies: 17
Views: 1887

Re: People who are selling - please post in this thread around the time of your sale (or when you are contemplating sell

I would love to have one consolidated thread where we can identify when people are selling. This may end up being a decent indicator for when anxiety has reached its height and markets have reached their lows. sold 100% of after-tax VTMBX 2 weeks ago for idiosyncratic reasons re the muni bond compo...
by smectym
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22812

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

the key to my mom surviving the great depression follows. Her family had a very large garden. they had a cow my mom or her sister milked daily. they had a relative with a farm they could get meat from. I have an acre of forested land. My neighbor down the road has chickens, geese, and turkeys. I ca...
by smectym
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying expensive things after the market crash
Replies: 39
Views: 4979

Re: Buying expensive things after the market crash

No, it never occurred to me to do that. When my portfolio is down I naturally try to conserve funds, not squander them. Are there others who rely on us, like a College student now on furlough who is nervous about what’s going on? It might be good to get that one a little something. I think sending ...
by smectym
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8969

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Keep reading from doomers how this will be "worse than Great Depression". Do you think that is accurate? A virus will create a 30+ year bear market? What about Fed not having to rely on gold and having options to print money and inject in economy? What about remote online work? What about current c...
by smectym
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook Recommendations?
Replies: 24
Views: 1379

Re: Chromebook Recommendations?

Just bought a 12 inch Lenovo Chromebook at Costco on sale for 200 for my kid. Was surprised by the good build quality and the screen is nice. Not super premium but if it breaks I won't be crying. Yes I like chromebooks for that reason: cheap, yet functional. I also seem to have a good experience wi...
by smectym
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22812

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

Looks like stocks are set to crash this week again. My prediction of a great depression is now closer. I feel like selling all stocks on a technical bear market rebound. This might be the fastest 50% crash in history. Stocks are going to keep crashing until this infection rate flattens. There is no...
by smectym
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recently retired, should I protect equity and sell?
Replies: 20
Views: 2281

Re: Recently retired, should I protect equity and sell?

My wife and I both retired, (her because of health reasons), three years ago. We currently have a little over $1.5M at VG invested at 40% stock, 60% bond. We also have a bit over $400K in CD's that we have used as living expenses over the last three years. I ladder these CD's according to expected ...
by smectym
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who do you follow for market insights ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2598

Re: Who do you follow for market insights ?

There are quite a few investment pundits and forecasters out there giving their take on the financial markets. Wonder who people here follow to gain insight on the markets -- be it stocks, bonds, currency, political implications, etc. Who has been the most accurate that you have found? Trying to ex...
by smectym
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Hurry Buying In Race To The Bottom
Replies: 14
Views: 2036

Re: No Hurry Buying In Race To The Bottom

With the news of chloroquine a few days ago, I dabbled my toes and got back into the market. I've been proven wrong and it looks like the market is headed down further. Off-topic, but this time it could prove to be an existential crisis, and what happens to the market is nothing more than an exerci...
by smectym
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's ok to do nothing
Replies: 20
Views: 2287

Re: It's ok to do nothing

Do nothing should be the starting point. Anything else should be carefully thought about, preferably as part of a pre-defined plan that was put in writing (e.g. rebalancing policy) before the crisis. In case of doubt, back to the starting point, which is indeed ok. Easy to say, much harder to do in...
by smectym
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When are you rebalancing?
Replies: 76
Views: 4574

Re: When are you rebalancing?

When are most rebalancing? A yearly rebalance? When you are off 10%? I'm way off of my asset allocation right now and simply doubling and possibly tripling monthly contributions to get back. I'm obviously afraid of catching a falling knife given this situation can only get worse and the economy can...
by smectym
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did my munis (VWITX) dropped almost 10%???
Replies: 7
Views: 830

Re: Why did my munis (VWITX) dropped almost 10%???

I just realized my munis dropped below $8k... which for me was a visual signal that something is wrong. I calculated almost 9% loss since the start of the year. What is going on? Why is it reacting as if munis are going to default? Did the same thing happen in 2008? I remember reading all that Mere...