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Search found 143 matches
- Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:47 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Thanksgiving Day
- Replies: 12
- Views: 2048
- Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:38 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is it actually rational to have a higher stock allocation as you age and become richer?
- Replies: 96
- Views: 19649
Re: Is it actually rational to have a higher stock allocation as you age and become richer?
It's not a question of "rationality." It's a question of whether you have increasing relative risk aversion or decreasing relative risk aversion. There is no objectively correct amount of risk aversion. It is an input to financial economics equations, not an output. If you have decreasing relative risk aversion, then as you reach the point where you have more than enough wealth to take care of your needs and your important wants, you say "I can afford to gamble the rest of it, because it doesn't matter if I lose it." If you have increasing relative risk aversion, then you say "When you've won the game, why keep on playing? I don't need to take risk at the point, and I prefer not to." If you have constant relat...
- Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is it actually rational to have a higher stock allocation as you age and become richer?
- Replies: 96
- Views: 19649
Re: Is it actually rational to have a higher stock allocation as you age and become richer?
Here me out. Suppose you are retired at age 55 with a NW=X and you determined that a 50/50 allocation met your risk tolerance. A 50% drop in stocks leaves you with 75% of your assets. You we’re all set for a long retirement! Now what if unexpectedly you received a windfall equal to X making your NW=2X. If you changed your AA to 100% stocks a 50% drop leaves you with X which is more than .75X assuming the old AA and no inheritance. You might make the argument that your living standards would immediately scale to the doubled NW and therefore the original 50/50 risk tolerance would apply. But what if you left your living standards at 0.5X? Initially you won’t reap the full benefits of higher living standards of the new NW but if you can hang ...
- Sat May 08, 2021 9:41 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?
- Replies: 163
- Views: 23123
- Sat May 01, 2021 3:59 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Tesla exceeds expectations for Q1
- Replies: 110
- Views: 10773
- Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:43 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Market crashes. Who causes them?
- Replies: 42
- Views: 4592
Re: Market crashes. Who causes them?
Panic sellers with the aid of Automated Trading software.
- Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:36 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: "Best Total Stock Market Index Funds"
- Replies: 25
- Views: 5608
Re: "Best Total Stock Market Index Funds"
Thanks. I own both Fidelity and Vanguard total index funds.
- Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:42 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: "Investing Isn't Engineering"
- Replies: 27
- Views: 4115
Re: "Investing Isn't Engineering"
Agreed that "Investing isn't engineering" but it does not deter universities from offering graduate degrees in Financial Engineering. Graduates are in demand and could command high salaries. Next wave is using AI or machine learning for investing.
- Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:57 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The bond market is a mess and there are no solutions!
- Replies: 232
- Views: 34648
Re: The bond market is a mess and there are no solutions!
That's kind of depressing, knowing that you only have 15 years to live.palanzo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:47 pmSo 100% of 60 year olds die peacefully at 85. That's good to know.rich126 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:11 am Maybe my math is off here, and you still have potential issues with sequence of returns but if you have 25X expenses saved and are using a 4% SWR wouldn't a 1% real return give you ~31 years of withdrawals? If you retire at 60, even a 0% real return gives you 25 years which is longer than the life expectancy for a 60 yr old.
I'm not optimistic about the returns in the bond or stock market but you don't need 4%+ real returns to have your money outlast your life.
- Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:02 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
- Replies: 1587
- Views: 210342
- Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:38 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: I still believe in “getting rich slowly”
- Replies: 91
- Views: 11264
Re: I still believe in “getting rich slowly”
Really? Gamblers never quit!7eight9 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:34 pmThey don't have to make money consistently over xx years. One or two good scores and they could be set for life. Put it all in Treasuries or defeased bonds and clip the coupons.BogleBuddy12 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:25 pm Can these “get rich quick” investors make money consistently year after year for 40-50-60 years? Probably not. On the other side of the coin, can they remain disciplined with their big winnings and not blow it? That’s the other question.
- Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:05 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
- Replies: 1439
- Views: 157422
Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
I think the big danger now is that you saw an example where market timing worked for you. That doesn't make success the next time any more likely than it was this time. I have a friend who did something similar. It didn't turn out nearly as well. Well assuming we do not have another pending pandemic that the entire world is ignoring I likely won't try it again. The deal with this was that not only was it guaranteed to get bad, everyone was completely ignoring it. The chances of another terrible guaranteed event that everyone ignores is very low. I just slogged through the election plugging into my 401k and ignoring what seemed like a good idea to do. I wasn't even tempted. Well apparently the markets are ignoring that we are still in a pan...
- Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:59 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: “New Bitcoin Investors Explain Why They’re Buying at Record Prices“
- Replies: 936
- Views: 79694
Re: “New Bitcoin Investors Explain Why They’re Buying at Record Prices“
when the trade price falls below NAV.ensign_lee wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:11 amWhy would it ever be negative?Forester wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:42 am Grayscale premium to NAV keeps declining and is now at just 4%. https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/disc ... ium_to_nav. When this turns negative the Bitcoin price will enter a death spiral.
That would allow me to buy GBTC in my tax advantaged accounts and then sell existing bitcoins for risk free profit?
It was only ever positive because it was the only way to get bitcoin exposure in tax advantaged accounts.
- Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:12 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How to profit from irrational behavior?
- Replies: 63
- Views: 6366
Re: How to profit from irrational behavior?
OP, Why do you think that you need to do anything special? "Buy, Hold, and Rebalancing" is a good "market timing" tool. See below. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=335902 I made money from my REIT INDEX FUND in 2008/2009 too. My 5/25 rebalancing rule forced me to sell my REIT INDEX FUND when it went up 30+%. I harvested my gain right before the crash. Did you rebalance in March 2020? I guess not. Or else, you would not be posting this topic. KlangFool Yes, I followed my IPS to the letter and rebalanced accordingly. That's what I'm saying, does adding a small speculative position to a 3-fund portfolio and rebalancing it religiously make sense, to take advantage of other people speculating? Sure, if you ha...
- Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:18 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bitcoin ETF (GBTC): Is 17% premium irrelevant?
- Replies: 58
- Views: 7900
Re: Bitcoin ETF (GBTC): Is 17% premium irrelevant?
This sounds like a nice problem. Isn't it?Fortune Seeker wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:37 pmBig selling point of GBTC and other trusts is to have it in tax-advantaged account.drumboy256 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:42 pm Haven't done a metric ton of research, I can safely say skip GBTC and buy Bitcoin directly. Fidelity will NOT honor the paper that you owe that is the Bitcoin in holding that Greyscale buys. So think of basically getting an IOU for something that you can never redeem.
The ONLY thing that will save Crypto (imo) in the next 12-24 months is an Index ETF that actually measures the market cap of Bitcoin and Ethereum sub-sectors. My advice is skip and buy directly from an exchange.You never know what kind of income tax you'll eventually be hit with if cryptocurrency will keep appreciating.
- Thu Jan 21, 2021 12:32 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International stocks: If not now, then when?
- Replies: 172
- Views: 20170
Re: International stocks: If not now, then when?
I believe in the concept of a "global economy". So, eventually it will not matter which country you have money invested in. I'm not sure when that will occur, likely after I'm dead, perhaps after my grand-kids are dead, but we seem to be heading in that direction. I also believe in the concept of "reversion to mean". That could happen two ways. What was above or below the mean could move toward mean, or, the mean could change. Almost by definition. When I was working I had "human capital" invested in the country I lived in. So, I made sure I invested in other countries for diversification. Now that I'm retired I have spent my human capital, am likely to stay in this country, so the temptation would be to tilt ...
- Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:37 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Economy sluggish? I don't understand
- Replies: 95
- Views: 9195
Re: Economy sluggish? I don't understand
Yup - the stock market is nothing more than a big casino.tibbitts wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:55 pmYou are missing that the stock market is not the economy, and that "the economy" isn't the same for everyone.sksbog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:53 am Hello Bogleheads,
Help me understand this. All the news media articles are saying "economy may recover this year" " economy is sluggish" , etc.
But the stock market is all time high. People are making tons of money. Elon, just made it to richest man in the world.
Everyone's 401k/retirement accounts are swollen.
What I am missing? Why does it matter, even if economy is "sluggish"?
Thanks
- Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:18 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Young investors: don’t take unnecessary risk with aggressive and concentrated allocations
- Replies: 205
- Views: 16684
Re: Young investors: don’t damage long term returns with aggressive and concentrated allocations
The people in this thread who are second-guessing the wisdom of the Bogleheads Philosophy might benefit from spending some time refreshing themselves on the basics in the wiki or one of the many books on the subject. Bogle's insight was a logical one, and applies across all market conditions. That's right, I said "all". Come at me, internet nitpickers! Haha. Have a good Saturday everyone. When advice is provided on a mass scale, and intended to obtain widespread acceptance, the expert/writer has to craft a philosophy that is aimed at the lowest common denominator. The message is dumbed down to be simple and easily digestible. This is a good thing and helps a lot of people, thus a net positive for sure. However, I'm shocked that t...
- Sun Jan 17, 2021 11:17 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Young investors: don’t take unnecessary risk with aggressive and concentrated allocations
- Replies: 205
- Views: 16684
Re: Young investors: don’t take unnecessary risk with aggressive and concentrated allocations
The disbelief that someone can do better than broad market index for 20 years seem irrefutable, but that's essentially where I'm at. I spent 19.5 of the last 20 years going broad market index funds. Spent the last 6 months with broad index with ARK and Tesla stock. That would put my 20 year ahead of any totak market index over the last 20 years. No one says you can't do better. We're saying it's a lot of luck (and maybe a little skill). Going for more gives you a decent chance of getting less... Here's the thing. You think it's mostly skill, and just a little luck. My experience, watching very smart people invest, is that it is mostly luck. Index funds guarantee market returns, which, so far, are enough to make you rich. I don't need to ro...
- Sun Jan 17, 2021 10:28 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Value stocks are about to come out of their coma, says index fund powerhouse Vanguard
- Replies: 47
- Views: 6981
Re: Value stocks are about to come out of their coma, says index fund powerhouse Vanguard
Haha - The term "junk bonds" exists. Thus, why not junk stocks?Anon9001 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 9:33 amThat's because Internet has made search for bargains very easy. I suspect much of the Value Premium which was linked to mispricing is gone now due to surplus of data. The people who are investing into "Value" stocks now might be the suckers who don't understand that the great past results of the Value factor was before the widespread adoption of the Internet when data on securities hard to come by. I would suggest these funds rename themselves to Junk Stocks. That would be more accurate IMO than their deceptive name "Value" especially SCV.
- Sun Jan 17, 2021 10:21 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: ARK investment
- Replies: 269
- Views: 32530
Re: ARK investment
I bought it with my play money. It is fun to track it and helps me learn about the tech sector. I'll keep it for a while and see how it goes. My retirement is on Vanguard indexes. BTW, Vanguard has a tech sector fund also. It is not as exciting as ARK fund. Here are the top 10 holdings in VITAX (the fund I believe you are referencing). Apple Inc. Microsoft Corp. Visa Inc. NVIDIA Corp. Mastercard Inc. PayPal Holdings Inc. Adobe Inc. Intel Corp. salesforce.com Inc. Cisco Systems Inc. Top 10 = 57% of holdings Here is Vanguard VTSAX Apple Inc. Microsoft Corp. Amazon.com Inc. Alphabet Inc. Facebook Inc. Tesla Inc. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Johnson & Johnson JPMorgan Chase & Co. Visa Inc. Top 10 = 23% Here is ARK-K TESLA INC ROKU INC CRISP...
- Sun Jan 17, 2021 9:03 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Value stocks are about to come out of their coma, says index fund powerhouse Vanguard
- Replies: 47
- Views: 6981
Re: Value stocks are about to come out of their coma, says index fund powerhouse Vanguard
Just looking at Vanguard's VBR fund. Top holdings: PerkinElmer Inc. - 2.36 PEG / PE 40.09 IDEX Corp. - 3.13 PEG / PE 40.71 Generac Holdings Inc. - 6.82 PEG / PE 54.55 VICI Properties Inc. - 2.08 PEG / PE 18.50 Nuance Communications Inc. - 100.46 PEG / PE 512.35 Molina Healthcare Inc. - 2.02 PEG / PE 16.74 Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. - 2.07 PEG / PE 24.88 Atmos Energy Corp. - 2.53 PEG / PE 17.93 ON Semiconductor Corp. - 11.60 PEG / PE 78.63 RPM International Inc. - 1.70 PEG / PE 26.19 Is that "value"? Majority of those also have declining sales year over year. THe problem is we are having a pandemic that is affecting stocks in the small value bucket more than others . Many of these stocks will have had bad years but the next...
- Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:49 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Michael Saylor Discusses Bitcoin on Bloomberg's Odd Lots
- Replies: 507
- Views: 38714
Re: Michael Saylor Discusses Bitcoin on Bloomberg's Odd Lots
Pros and Cons of owing GBTC versus BTC GBTC : Pros : no need to go to an exchange ( like Coinbase, Paypal); can trade from any brokerage 100% correlation with BTC No variation in fee ( compared to different exchanges) Can hold in retirement account ( most peoples retirement account is in traditional brokerage) Cons : 2% management fee No 24x7 trade Incur capital gain/loss when selling ( in lieu of exchanging for other crypto) Anything else ? This is wrong info. GBTC suffers from GBTC premium that rises during bull markets and usually fluctuates something like 10-30%. Why would you on purpose pay more for an asset than it is worth? It's just burning money. GBTC does not have 100% correlation with BTC due to this reason! +1 The correlation b...
- Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:15 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: ARK investment
- Replies: 269
- Views: 32530
Re: ARK investment
BTW, Vanguard has a tech sector fund also. It is not as exciting as ARK fund.New Providence wrote: ↑Sat Jan 16, 2021 8:57 am I bought it with my play money. It is fun to track it and helps me learn about the tech sector. I'll keep it for a while and see how it goes.
My retirement is on Vanguard indexes.
- Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:54 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Young investors: don’t take unnecessary risk with aggressive and concentrated allocations
- Replies: 205
- Views: 16684
Re: Young investors: don’t damage long term returns with aggressive and concentrated allocations
Tesla P/E is 1654... is that bad? 🤔 The P/E will be significantly reduced in X years as Tesla will dominate the EV and car industry according to the "experts". :D A multimillionaire, John DeBolt, still holds on his Tesla shares. https://www.330ramp.com/blog/2021/1/11/the-tesla-multimillionaire-who-refuses-to-cash-his-lottery-ticket The funny thing is he's "retiring" yet, his only holding appears to be Tesla stock. Clearly he doesn't understand anything about risk, because you cannot retire when any given stock is able to go to zero. Sure, that's why he has 12 million and I don't. But he will never understand what it truly means to be financially independent by being beholden to the whims of a single stock. What's worse,...
- Sat Jan 16, 2021 8:34 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Young investors: don’t take unnecessary risk with aggressive and concentrated allocations
- Replies: 205
- Views: 16684
Re: Young investors: don’t damage long term returns with aggressive and concentrated allocations
LOL- FOMO is very real for all ages!burritoLover wrote: ↑Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:16 pm Young investors? Lol - plenty of older ones on here doing the same Ark / Tesla / bitcoin speculation
- Sat Jan 16, 2021 8:22 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Young investors: don’t take unnecessary risk with aggressive and concentrated allocations
- Replies: 205
- Views: 16684
Re: Young investors: don’t damage long term returns with aggressive and concentrated allocations
I know I’m getting old but young/new investors today remind me of myself when I was starting out. My portfolio was full of junior gold miners, junior oils, hot picks, sexy named funds. Now I have 7 figures in the all world and trying to shoot the lights out has lost interest. It’s a learning curve, but I believe most bogleheads came to passive investing after learning the hard way from previous mistakes. When you are young, 5 figures invested seems like a lot of money, and fortunately your mistakes won’t cost you too much. A lot of posters who post passionately about individual stocks, bitcoin, etc I get the impression have small, immature portfolios. I say, let them work through the process, and hope they make some good money along the wa...
- Sat Jan 16, 2021 8:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Young investors: don’t take unnecessary risk with aggressive and concentrated allocations
- Replies: 205
- Views: 16684
Re: Young investors: don’t damage long term returns with aggressive and concentrated allocations
The P/E will be significantly reduced in X years as Tesla will dominate the EV and car industry according to the "experts". A multimillionaire, John DeBolt, still holds on his Tesla shares. https://www.330ramp.com/blog/2021/1/11/ ... ery-ticket
- Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:27 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Three Fund Portfolio + Ark ?
- Replies: 25
- Views: 3237
Re: Three Fund Portfolio + Ark ?
Interesting article from Ben Carlson about ARK funds and performance chasing: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/1 ... ing-funds/Wanderingwheelz wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:17 pm Name three active mutual fund (ETF, too) managers that would have been a substantially positive addition to a long-term index fund portfolio over the last 50 years. Peter Lynch comes to mind right away, but things get dicey after him. Bill Miller has definitely had an interesting track record.
Am I missing anyone else?
- Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:10 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The new and bigger irrational exuberance
- Replies: 135
- Views: 12784
Re: The new and bigger irrational exuberance
I do not completely agree that those big tech stocks are in bubbles. The economy is undergoing a shift that was accelerated by the pandemic. Those big tech companies are the winners, for now. So given a menu of investment choices all of which involve potential loss to inflation, taxes, and popping bubbles, I just pick some from each asset class and hope enough survives to meet my expenses in retirement. The tech stocks, i.e., Tesla, are not overvalued? :confused If you're very confident that it's overvalued, then logically you might consider shorting the stock. But that entails lending costs, the fact that you can lose more than 100% of your investment, and the reality that 'the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solve...
- Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:54 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Muni bonds for taxable account?
- Replies: 55
- Views: 7549
Re: Muni bonds for taxable account?
If you're in the 22% bracket, and you want bonds in your taxable account, you might as well hold the Total Bond Index Fund or the Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund. Even after taxes, you would do better than if you had municipal bonds. But why not keep all your bonds in your tax-advantaged accounts? That's the best solution. There's no need to diversify your taxable account separately from your overall portfolio across all accounts. I humbly disagree with the top bolded statement. How can total bond beat an intermediate muni fund in a taxable account with the 22% bracket? I'd like to see the math. With total bond, you would pay 22% federal taxes plus state taxes. With Vanguard's intermediate muni, you would pay no federal taxes and possibl...
- Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:52 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Reconsider bonds?
- Replies: 61
- Views: 5780
Re: Reconsider bonds?
I am a three (index)-fund portfolio investor. I recently saw the following on another forum: "While we’re on retirement investing, who is investing is bonds and why? I get the whole diversification reason, but with the new administration and Congress planning on showering the country with money, coupled with interest rates near or at record lows, bonds will likely get killed as inflation forces interest rates higher." Are any of you "Lazy Investors" reconsidering the effectiveness of bonds? Is there another fixed income or "safe money" option to be considered over bonds? Thanks for your input. If you are concerned about inflation and rising interest rates, then you could simply opt for bonds that are shorter i...
- Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:41 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Muni bonds for taxable account?
- Replies: 55
- Views: 7549
Re: Muni bonds for taxable account?
If you're in the 22% bracket, and you want bonds in your taxable account, you might as well hold the Total Bond Index Fund or the Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund. Even after taxes, you would do better than if you had municipal bonds. But why not keep all your bonds in your tax-advantaged accounts? That's the best solution. There's no need to diversify your taxable account separately from your overall portfolio across all accounts. I humbly disagree with the top bolded statement. How can total bond beat an intermediate muni fund in a taxable account with the 22% bracket? I'd like to see the math. With total bond, you would pay 22% federal taxes plus state taxes. With Vanguard's intermediate muni, you would pay no federal taxes and possibl...
- Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Muni bonds for taxable account?
- Replies: 55
- Views: 7549
Re: Muni bonds for taxable account?
BTW, annual purchase of I-binds is limited to $30K.anon_investor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:16 am+1. I am in a higher tax bracket than the OP and I Bonds made more sense than munis in taxable for me. Their tax deferred nature makes them tax efficient
- Sun Jan 10, 2021 3:23 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The new and bigger irrational exuberance
- Replies: 135
- Views: 12784
- Sun Jan 10, 2021 2:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
- Replies: 220
- Views: 34464
Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
In general, it is but not always. Bonds could go down as well but not at the same pace as stocks.bck63 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 1:11 pmNot really.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:38 pm During a crash, (generally) stocks go down bonds go up.
- Sun Jan 10, 2021 2:00 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
- Replies: 220
- Views: 34464
Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Don't you have any other hobbies that are more enjoyable and relaxing than investing?yousha wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 7:13 pmArtsdoctor wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 6:55 pmAt this point, you are investing for your heirs, not yourself (unless you're annual expenses are in the 10% range of your current portfolio . . . ).
My expenses is significantly well below. I am investing because it is now a hobby and enjoyable. Yes... my heirs will inherit, however, it is not my purpose for investing. Hard to break the habit of investing since I was 19 years of age.
- Sun Jan 10, 2021 1:20 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The new and bigger irrational exuberance
- Replies: 135
- Views: 12784
Re: The new and bigger irrational exuberance
The tech stocks, i.e., Tesla, are not overvalued?dmcmahon wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:48 pm
I do not completely agree that those big tech stocks are in bubbles. The economy is undergoing a shift that was accelerated by the pandemic. Those big tech companies are the winners, for now. So given a menu of investment choices all of which involve potential loss to inflation, taxes, and popping bubbles, I just pick some from each asset class and hope enough survives to meet my expenses in retirement.
- Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:16 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What is the "Quit when you won the game" portfolio?
- Replies: 177
- Views: 22765
Re: What is the "Quit when you won the game" portfolio?
I am very close to winning the game and i plan on keeping my portfolio at 90% equities and 10% bonds forever. To me, having a lot of assets is not a reason to dial down. It is a reason to continue to be aggressive because you can afford to. The key is to stay debt free and not let your spending get out of control. Same boat. Portfolio volatility can be an issue but there are lots of ways to mitigate that while maintaining aggressive AA. Dialing down AA for this reason is a mistake in my opinion. This makes sense if your goal is to maximize capital growth. However, if your goal is to preserve what you have, then you are taking unnecessary risk. I am retired and satisfied with what I have. The benefit I would get from doubling my investments...
- Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:13 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What is the "Quit when you won the game" portfolio?
- Replies: 177
- Views: 22765
Re: What is the "Quit when you won the game" portfolio?
1. Enough to support your living expenses for the rest of your life without running out of money.geerhardusvos wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:52 am
More interesting questions (which have already been discussed on the forum):
How much money does someone need to win the game?
How do wealthy people invest their money? Is it different than how most people should invest?
Why do people keep working after they have enough money?
What are the characteristics and avenues people took to get to the end of the game where they won?
2. Do not care how other invest their money. Invest the way you feel comfortable.
3. If you like working, why not.
4. Relax and enjoy life. Reduce risk if you are still winning.
- Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:08 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe
- Replies: 262
- Views: 55198
Re: Someone is reading my posts.
Taylor,Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:47 amnedsaid:nedsaid wrote: I regard Taylor Larimore's posts in these threads as a contrary indicator, the more he posts regarding Small Value, the more I am convinced that it is coming back.
I'm happy to learn that someone reads my posts.
TaylorJack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "In my view, owning the market and holding it forever is the ultimate strategy for winners."
I have read a lot of your posts over the years and found them very consistent and more importantly insightful.
- Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:34 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Ark Funds
- Replies: 198
- Views: 33692
Re: Ark Funds
You would pay tax on the distribution, such as cap gain, dividends/income. The total distribution of ARK funds could be found here: https://etfs.ark-funds.com/hubfs/1_Down ... K_ETFs.pdfTrey86 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:11 pm I’ve been interested in holding ARKK in a rainy day fund for a while but I’m uncertain of the tax implications of holding a high turnover ETF (80%) in a taxable account.
I know ETFs are structured to be tax efficient but does anyone know what holding these in a regular brokerage account would look like in practice? Would it just be cap gains distributed once annually at end of the year?
They look pretty tax efficient.
- Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:49 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Ark Funds
- Replies: 198
- Views: 33692
Re: Ark Funds
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/passive ... arket.htmlMinnGuyInvesting wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:45 pm I think a 2019 stat said about 45% of investments are passive investors. (I assume that means not actively managed). Whether that's all index or not, I'm not sure.
45% of fund assets are passive while 55% are actively managed. Total fund assets are about $4.5 trillion USD (Source: Morningstar), which is much smaller than U.S. stock market cap of $36.358 trillion dollars.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fund ... SKBN15H1PN
This article projects Index funds to surpass active fund assets in U.S. by 2024.
- Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:16 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Ark Funds
- Replies: 198
- Views: 33692
Re: Ark Funds
The outcome are impressive!MinnGuyInvesting wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:12 pm Updating with last year's numbers.
YTD returns (9 days in) - Last Year
ARK-K - 14.45% - Last Year: 148.25%
ARK-G - 13.51% - Last Year: 185.23%
ARK-Q - 12.48% - Last Year: 110% (?)
ARK-W - 8.90% - Last Year: 150.77%
ARK-F - 4.53% -Last Year: 101.33%
ARK-G was the first I purchased in last year in summer.
You can see ARK-G and ARK-W both topped the ARK-K group last year.
- Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:14 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Ark Funds
- Replies: 198
- Views: 33692
Re: Ark Funds
I guess that she is not that smart after all.Nicolas wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:46 pmI think she did, but I did not. But I bought a lot of risky technology funds which also tanked, so the result was the same.spanky123 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:21 pmThe dental hygienist seems smart. Did he/she buy? Did you buy Qualcomm stock
Why was she smart? QCOM tanked and didn’t recover till last year, a twenty year stretch.
- Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:21 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Ark Funds
- Replies: 198
- Views: 33692
Re: Ark Funds
- Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:14 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)
- Replies: 201
- Views: 17641
Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)
Both FOMO & FOL lead to poor financial decision-making. Ha.
- Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:11 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)
- Replies: 201
- Views: 17641
Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)
No FOMO. Unfortunately, it is usually kind of late to get into the game. Just be happy with average market return.
- Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:07 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Ark Funds
- Replies: 198
- Views: 33692
Re: Ark Funds
May be or may not be any different. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.workingmanblues wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:38 pm Definitely being tempted to move some into ARKK. But I also remember feeling that in 1999 about PBHG funds. They did really well that year and the previous, but after that not so much..But maybe ARKK will be different..
- Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:14 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: GBTC - Any alternatives with a lower expense ratio?
- Replies: 11
- Views: 1410