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spanky123

Bwlonge wrote: ↑Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:14 pm I don't own any ARKs yet, but am planning to go 30% allocation next week, only because I can't allocate more in my 403b.

Wish you luck on performance chasing.

spanky123

Can these “get rich quick” investors make money consistently year after year for 40-50-60 years? Probably not. On the other side of the coin, can they remain disciplined with their big winnings and not blow it? That’s the other question. They don't have to make money consistently over xx years. One...

spanky123

I think the big danger now is that you saw an example where market timing worked for you. That doesn't make success the next time any more likely than it was this time. I have a friend who did something similar. It didn't turn out nearly as well. Well assuming we do not have another pending pandemi...

spanky123

Grayscale premium to NAV keeps declining and is now at just 4%. https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_nav . When this turns negative the Bitcoin price will enter a death spiral. Why would it ever be negative? That would allow me to buy GBTC in my tax advantaged accounts and then...

spanky123

OP, Why do you think that you need to do anything special? "Buy, Hold, and Rebalancing" is a good "market timing" tool. See below. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=335902 I made money from my REIT INDEX FUND in 2008/2009 too. My 5/25 rebalancing rule forced me to...

spanky123

Haven't done a metric ton of research, I can safely say skip GBTC and buy Bitcoin directly. Fidelity will NOT honor the paper that you owe that is the Bitcoin in holding that Greyscale buys. So think of basically getting an IOU for something that you can never redeem. The ONLY thing that will save ...

spanky123

I believe in the concept of a "global economy". So, eventually it will not matter which country you have money invested in. I'm not sure when that will occur, likely after I'm dead, perhaps after my grand-kids are dead, but we seem to be heading in that direction. I also believe in the co...

spanky123

Hello Bogleheads, Help me understand this. All the news media articles are saying "economy may recover this year" " economy is sluggish" , etc. But the stock market is all time high. People are making tons of money. Elon, just made it to richest man in the world. Everyone's 401k...

spanky123

The people in this thread who are second-guessing the wisdom of the Bogleheads Philosophy might benefit from spending some time refreshing themselves on the basics in the wiki or one of the many books on the subject. Bogle's insight was a logical one, and applies across all market conditions. That'...

spanky123

The disbelief that someone can do better than broad market index for 20 years seem irrefutable, but that's essentially where I'm at. I spent 19.5 of the last 20 years going broad market index funds. Spent the last 6 months with broad index with ARK and Tesla stock. That would put my 20 year ahead o...

spanky123

That's because Internet has made search for bargains very easy. I suspect much of the Value Premium which was linked to mispricing is gone now due to surplus of data. The people who are investing into "Value" stocks now might be the suckers who don't understand that the great past results...

spanky123

I bought it with my play money. It is fun to track it and helps me learn about the tech sector. I'll keep it for a while and see how it goes. My retirement is on Vanguard indexes. BTW, Vanguard has a tech sector fund also. It is not as exciting as ARK fund. Here are the top 10 holdings in VITAX (th...

spanky123

Just looking at Vanguard's VBR fund. Top holdings: PerkinElmer Inc. - 2.36 PEG / PE 40.09 IDEX Corp. - 3.13 PEG / PE 40.71 Generac Holdings Inc. - 6.82 PEG / PE 54.55 VICI Properties Inc. - 2.08 PEG / PE 18.50 Nuance Communications Inc. - 100.46 PEG / PE 512.35 Molina Healthcare Inc. - 2.02 PEG / P...

spanky123

Pros and Cons of owing GBTC versus BTC GBTC : Pros : no need to go to an exchange ( like Coinbase, Paypal); can trade from any brokerage 100% correlation with BTC No variation in fee ( compared to different exchanges) Can hold in retirement account ( most peoples retirement account is in traditiona...

spanky123

New Providence wrote: ↑Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:57 am I bought it with my play money. It is fun to track it and helps me learn about the tech sector. I'll keep it for a while and see how it goes.

My retirement is on Vanguard indexes.

BTW, Vanguard has a tech sector fund also. It is not as exciting as ARK fund.

spanky123

Tesla P/E is 1654... is that bad? 🤔 The P/E will be significantly reduced in X years as Tesla will dominate the EV and car industry according to the "experts". :D A multimillionaire, John DeBolt, still holds on his Tesla shares. https://www.330ramp.com/blog/2021/1/11/the-tesla-multimillio...

spanky123

burritoLover wrote: ↑Sat Jan 16, 2021 7:16 pm Young investors? Lol - plenty of older ones on here doing the same Ark / Tesla / bitcoin speculation

LOL- FOMO is very real for all ages!

spanky123

I know I’m getting old but young/new investors today remind me of myself when I was starting out. My portfolio was full of junior gold miners, junior oils, hot picks, sexy named funds. Now I have 7 figures in the all world and trying to shoot the lights out has lost interest. It’s a learning curve,...

spanky123

Tesla P/E is 1654... is that bad? 🤔 The P/E will be significantly reduced in X years as Tesla will dominate the EV and car industry according to the "experts". :D A multimillionaire, John DeBolt, still holds on his Tesla shares. https://www.330ramp.com/blog/2021/1/11/the-tesla-multimillio...

spanky123

Name three active mutual fund (ETF, too) managers that would have been a substantially positive addition to a long-term index fund portfolio over the last 50 years. Peter Lynch comes to mind right away, but things get dicey after him. Bill Miller has definitely had an interesting track record. Am I...

spanky123

I do not completely agree that those big tech stocks are in bubbles. The economy is undergoing a shift that was accelerated by the pandemic. Those big tech companies are the winners, for now. So given a menu of investment choices all of which involve potential loss to inflation, taxes, and popping ...

spanky123

If you're in the 22% bracket, and you want bonds in your taxable account, you might as well hold the Total Bond Index Fund or the Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund. Even after taxes, you would do better than if you had municipal bonds. But why not keep all your bonds in your tax-advantaged accounts...

spanky123

I am a three (index)-fund portfolio investor. I recently saw the following on another forum: "While we’re on retirement investing, who is investing is bonds and why? I get the whole diversification reason, but with the new administration and Congress planning on showering the country with mone...

spanky123

If you're in the 22% bracket, and you want bonds in your taxable account, you might as well hold the Total Bond Index Fund or the Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund. Even after taxes, you would do better than if you had municipal bonds. But why not keep all your bonds in your tax-advantaged accounts...

spanky123

Also, can consider i-Bonds and EE-bonds as bonds in taxable account. They have their own built-in tax deferred feature. +1. I am in a higher tax bracket than the OP and I Bonds made more sense than munis in taxable for me. Their tax deferred nature makes them tax efficient BTW, annual purchase of I...

spanky123

lostdog wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 4:08 pm ....

Where else can we invest our money to keep up with inflation?

Precious metals
Commodities
TIPS
Stocks
Cryptocurrencies

spanky123

bck63 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 2:11 pm
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 1:38 pm During a crash, (generally) stocks go down bonds go up.
Not really.

In general, it is but not always. Bonds could go down as well but not at the same pace as stocks.

spanky123

At 80 years of age, I have 75% in equities. Portfolio is $5.7 million. Doing exceptionally well. At this point, you are investing for your heirs, not yourself (unless you're annual expenses are in the 10% range of your current portfolio . . . ). My expenses is significantly well below. I am investi...

spanky123

I do not completely agree that those big tech stocks are in bubbles. The economy is undergoing a shift that was accelerated by the pandemic. Those big tech companies are the winners, for now. So given a menu of investment choices all of which involve potential loss to inflation, taxes, and popping ...

spanky123

I am very close to winning the game and i plan on keeping my portfolio at 90% equities and 10% bonds forever. To me, having a lot of assets is not a reason to dial down. It is a reason to continue to be aggressive because you can afford to. The key is to stay debt free and not let your spending get...

spanky123

More interesting questions (which have already been discussed on the forum): How much money does someone need to win the game? How do wealthy people invest their money? Is it different than how most people should invest? Why do people keep working after they have enough money? What are the characte...

spanky123

I regard Taylor Larimore's posts in these threads as a contrary indicator, the more he posts regarding Small Value, the more I am convinced that it is coming back. nedsaid: I'm happy to learn that someone reads my posts. Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "In my view, owning the market and h...

spanky123

I’ve been interested in holding ARKK in a rainy day fund for a while but I’m uncertain of the tax implications of holding a high turnover ETF (80%) in a taxable account. I know ETFs are structured to be tax efficient but does anyone know what holding these in a regular brokerage account would look ...

spanky123

I think a 2019 stat said about 45% of investments are passive investors. (I assume that means not actively managed). Whether that's all index or not, I'm not sure. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/passive-investing-now-controls-nearly-half-the-us-stock-market.html 45% of fund assets are passive whil...

spanky123

Updating with last year's numbers. YTD returns (9 days in) - Last Year ARK-K - 14.45% - Last Year: 148.25% ARK-G - 13.51% - Last Year: 185.23% ARK-Q - 12.48% - Last Year: 110% (?) ARK-W - 8.90% - Last Year: 150.77% ARK-F - 4.53% -Last Year: 101.33% ARK-G was the first I purchased in last year in su...

spanky123

The Bogleheads might be the equivalent of the shoe shine boys giving stock tips to Bernard Baruch during the 1920's. Euphoria seeps through even here. Yes, it’s human nature and Bogleheads are humans :beer I remember my dental hygienist, whom I did not know, telling me in 1999 about Qualcomm stock....

spanky123

The Bogleheads might be the equivalent of the shoe shine boys giving stock tips to Bernard Baruch during the 1920's. Euphoria seeps through even here. Yes, it’s human nature and Bogleheads are humans :beer I remember my dental hygienist, whom I did not know, telling me in 1999 about Qualcomm stock....

spanky123

manatee2005 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:54 pm
johnegonpdx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:41 pm I have FOMR (fear of miscalculating risk).
I think it's FOL (fear of loss).

Both FOMO & FOL lead to poor financial decision-making. Ha.

spanky123

No FOMO. Unfortunately, it is usually kind of late to get into the game. Just be happy with average market return.

spanky123

Definitely being tempted to move some into ARKK. But I also remember feeling that in 1999 about PBHG funds. They did really well that year and the previous, but after that not so much.. But maybe ARKK will be different .. May be or may not be any different. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional...

spanky123

BAM55 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:17 pm SkyBridge has a Bitcoin fund - but I believe the minimum is $50k

They have a swap program from GBTC to SkyBridge.
https://www.skybridgebitcoin.com/gbtc-swap

spanky123

My interpretation of the statement is:
Recent winners may continue to be winners (outperform the market)
Recent winners may become losers (underperform)
Recent winners may stay at par
Recent losers may remains losers
Recent losers may become winners
Recent losers may stay at par

spanky123

Some investors will want to continue to play even after they have won. I suspect that most will still want some exposure to stocks but the answer to . the question will be varied. I would suggest that perhaps the Life Strategy Income or Target Retirement Income funds might be appropriate. Not a rec...

spanky123

All weather portfolio or 50/50 (equity/Fixed-income)
https://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/b ... portfolio/

spanky123

rockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:26 pm So this is what happens when you legalize weed:)

Ha.

Here is an article about buying weed with bitcoin.
https://news.bitcoin.com/how-to-buy-weed-with-bitcoin/

spanky123

I put $100 into bitcoin for fun a bit ago and it's already up 77%. If only I had put $1000 into it It is too late to put more in. The price will go up to $146,000 or millions according to the "experts" who have a deep knowledge of bitcoin and the abilities to foresee the future. Ha. its n...

spanky123

Bitcoin at $146k is roughly 4x from current price and would give it a market cap of 2.4T (though some significant portion is lost forever so market cap is a little faulty). Ethereum 4x from here is $4,600 per coin and a market cap of $520B. I believe Ethereum has the better shot at 4x and not just ...

spanky123

atdharris wrote: ↑Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:49 am I put $100 into bitcoin for fun a bit ago and it's already up 77%. If only I had put $1000 into it

It is too late to put more in. The price will go up to $146,000 or millions according to the "experts" who have a deep knowledge of bitcoin and the abilities to foresee the future. Ha.

spanky123

The Bitcoin conversation last week on Bogleheads was incredible and enlightening. Some excellent points all around. It seems the choice is simply to either ignore cryptocurrencies, or perhaps invest 5-10% of one’s portfolio in them. I would imagine most investors cannot consider exceeding that smal...

spanky123

I spend around couple hundred a month on Starbucks and this morning while I was in the drive through contemplating my wasteful habit I mused what wasteful use of a couple hundred dollars would be more palatable for BHs. Which of these very unBoglehead choices would use choose for a couple hundred b...

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