Bogleheads.org

spanky123

n-Decisions: What stock/bond ratio do you want? What US/International stock ratio do you want? Do you want to tilt to value, and how much? Do you want to till to small, and how much? What percentage of international should be in emerging markets? Should international equities be tilted to small or ...

spanky123

Will this fund be tax-efficient?

spanky123

To clarify the IRA contributions, for my wife, is it as simple as opening a new Vanguard traditional IRA in her name and then contributing the max 5500 annual contribution? Then continuing the process for the backdoor Roth IRA. As for me, does the backdoor Roth IRA still make sense since I've alrea...

spanky123

Those who pull money from intermediate or long-term bonds in anticipation of poor bond return might have some regrets.

spanky123

Nisiprius, I got the statistics on EEM from Morningstar. I did look at the ownership zone chart and have no question on that but next to it is the holdings style chart and that`s when I began thinking about this situation. It lists in total 36 small, 58 mid and 5 large. Using these numbers would yo...

spanky123

Here's a link to the Wilshire indexes: http://web.wilshire.com/Indexes/USStyle/ All index funds should be judged on how well they track their underlying indexes. Purity (whatever the definition might be) is irrelevant. Judge or criticize the underlying indexes if you like but not Vanguard index fund...

spanky123

Today I researched the VFINX fund on Vanguard`s website which is indexed to perform along with the S&P 500 ( all large cap). I learned that this fund has 32.3 % in mid cap large, 18.6 % in midcap and 2.6 % in mid cap small. Is something wrong with this as a large cap index fund? Can this be style d...

spanky123

kerplunk wrote:As long as you understand what you are doing and are aware of the associated risks, I see nothing wrong with having greater control over of your portfolio by using more ETFs.

I use VXUS and VSS for international stocks.

Thanks. Do you use VWO for emerging markets?

spanky123

For simplicity, it's appropriate to use one fund or (ETF), e.g., Vanguard International Total (VXUS). If one wants the flexibility to select the percentage of allocation between FTSE All-World ex-US and the Emerging Markets, would it be more prudent to use multiple ETFs, i.e., VWO & VEU? I am thinki...

spanky123

Browser wrote:Is the 40x-50x inclusive of all sources of spending such as social security, pensions, etc. in addition to portfolio value? It might be a more attainable objective if so.

I think it is 40x-50x of required income, which is income from pension, social security, etc minus projected expenses.

spanky123

richard wrote:Larry, what's you definition of having enough?

Suggestions seem to range from 25x to 50x annual expenses.

How about yours?

spanky123

I think the whole concept of "won the game" is nonsensical. Why would you not want to continue to grow your portfolio at a risk that is acceptable to you. Taking one's money off the table is a risk in itself. I for one will stay in the game until I breathe my last. .. because you could lose your sh...

spanky123

GMO Forecast method?
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/comm ... 111913.php

spanky123

Nice data - it seems that investing in only one fund - Wellington is simple and effective. Re-balancing is not necessary at all.

spanky123

abuss368 wrote:The book "Elements of Investing" recommended a two fund portfolio. I believe it was Total World Stock and Total Bond Index.

The book recommends 50% US Total Market + 50% International but also mentions a one-stop shopping method: Total World Index.

spanky123

One would have assumed that this would be disastrous for the long-term accumulator, but not so. Had they saved $100/month over these 15 years, their $18,000 total investment actually grew to $36,000, not the $18,000 you'd assume based on about 0% returns. In 1930 the average income per year was $1,...

spanky123

I have a guaranteed pension that I will be able to collect at age 43 and of course will continue to work after that (health permitting of course.)

That's a great pension! If the pension can support your future expenses, why work?

spanky123

Instead of delineating the difference or debating which fund is "better", what are your arguments against or for investing such sector fund? It seems worthwhile as aging population requiring more health care as times marches on, faring much better than the S&P 500 during times of crisis. The active ...

spanky123

Another factor that is often overlooked is the additional risk of such a strategy. Instead of investing in broadly diversified funds, you are taking a gamble on a single narrower fund. Could this be said about sector funds despite spectacular performance of the Vanguard Health-care sector fund with...

spanky123

Thanks. What is AA of Hot Hands? The "Hot Hands" method was developed by Dan Wiener -- Founder and Chairman, Adviser Investments. He says, "My “hot hands” thesis is quite simple: Investors who purchase the prior year's best diversified Vanguard equity fund and hold it for a year and follow this str...

spanky123

How do apply a RBD calculation to a mutual fund? Just run the numbers for the corresponding ETF? For the Fund you are looking to buy see the corresponding ETF. 1. Has the ETF dropped in value today? 2. Is this drop greater than 2.5%? 3. Is this drop greater than the 4th largest drop in the past 151...

spanky123

Ignore all forecasts

How about the one from GMO - 7-Year Asset Class Return Forecasts? I guess the answer is "yes.".

spanky123

mickeyd wrote:New High! zzzzzzz

New Low! zzzzzzzz

Stay the Course! zzzzzzz

ZZZZ .. How about market decline of 90%, all public pension payments ceased indefinitely or discontinued forever, imminent World War III, etc?

spanky123

I think there is something wrong with the way the author is calculating the yearly return for those portfolios. For example, he shows the Coffeehouse Portfolio as having a return of 6.41% last year. But if you drill down into the portfolio on that page, you see the components: 40% Total Bond (which...

spanky123

leo383 wrote:I personally think the ultimate lazy Boglehead portfolio also just has two funds: Total World and Total Bond.

It's cheaper to use two funds: Total Stock Mkt Index (VTSMX) and Total Int’l Stock Idx (VGTSX) as opposed to Total World albeit simpler.

spanky123

The only problem is no-one ever knows where the dips were (or ended), except for in hindsight. What if the stock market drops 20%, you adjust your allocation to 100% equities, and then the market drops another 40%? Or what if the market does not recover for 5 years and bonds do well during that per...

spanky123

As with religion, your belief can be shaken depending on whether current conditions are affecting you, and how much you believe in your own ability to recover.

It depends on the degree to which you truly believe in the region. A true believer will never be forsaken.

spanky123

I made out like a bandit obviously and I'm back at my 80/20 allocation now waiting for the next crash.

When will be the next crash? What constitutes a crash?

spanky123

I have very accurate records, which I maintain in an Excel file, going back to the beginning of 1995, so I have detailed performance information. Since January of 1995 my annualized return has been 9.47%, compared to a 7.77% annualized return for a static portfolio of Vanguard index funds which mir...

spanky123

camper wrote:We have heard of the pending doom and gloom of rising interest rates for a couple years now. Those that think they know when it will actually happen are fooling themselves. Tune out the noise. Stay the course.

Staying the course seems so simple but yet so hard to follow.

spanky123

How about the CD "crash" which is here already? You are guaranteed to lose money/purchasing power by putting your money into CDs. A crash to me implies an event that truly impacts. Does not seem like bonds can really crash, especially since their interest payments will increase during this "crash"....

spanky123

livesoft wrote:I learned how bad VBS really is as a broker for me. It might be OK for you though.

How bad was it? Any example? A few dislikes: takes a day or two to settle the trade and proceeds to money market cannot be used right away.

spanky123

Beagler wrote:Here is a list of 2012 predictions: http://money.cnn.com/gallery/pf/2012/12 ... index.html

How about 2013?

spanky123

We are in the "milestone: camp as we are slowly shifting more to the fixed income side. The target will be 40/55/5 (equity, fixed-income, cash). As for fixed-income, we are contemplating on short-term bond funds as interest rate will mostly go up as QE3 expires in mid year 2013.

spanky123

As others have said, there's no apparent advantage to split REIT allocation between two accounts. As for us, all REIT allocation is in one tax-deferred account. You might consider splitting REIT allocation between domestic and international for increased diversification.

spanky123

Most forecasts indicate that the return of the S&P500 will be lower than that of 2012. Some sectors, however, may perform slightly better, such as health care, consumer non-cyclical, utilities and real estate.

spanky123

$1 Portfolio = 11.92, 15.26

For Vanguard Wellington, $1 portfolio = 14.45 without the need of rebalancing.

spanky123

According to your data, from 1985 - 1999, the 3-fund return is actually better. If $1 was invested in 1985, the value is $7.54 for 3-fund and 7.52 for S&D.

spanky123

Uncertainty = ?
Risk = A state of uncertainty where outcome could be + or -.

spanky123

kontango wrote:Like it or not, finance/investing is technical.

However, it is definitely not scientific.

spanky123

I hope the above is helpful Not at all. You seem to be deeply into the social scientist's confusion that there is an epistemological difference between knowledge you gain by counting and calculation versus knowledge gained in other ways. I think what you've said here is all wrong. What's right (cor...

spanky123

what he's recommending is FAR from the most diversified stock portfolio, on a global basis.

What's your recommendation?

spanky123

My YTD is up about 5% or so, because I got out of the stock portion on July 22nd and went to STB's. Why did you do that? Did you foresee significant risks or decline in the market? Probably just dumb luck, I felt things were just to pricey for the current market. With all the bad news, world proble...

spanky123

hidesert wrote:I haven't sold anything so I haven't lost anything.

Its all just electrons at the moment.

It's true - no realized loss. Paper loss is not a major concern unless your investing horizon is short.

spanky123

Mr. Jean wrote: My YTD is up about 5% or so, because I got out of the stock portion on July 22nd and went to STB's.

Why did you do that? Did you foresee significant risks or decline in the market?

spanky123

I'm an accumulator at this point so all I care about is the number of shares I own.

What if the value of each share is zero? Do you care?

spanky123

BigD53 wrote:Vanguard's Long-Term Treasury Fund is up approximately 30% YTD? :roll:

That must be the "flight to quality" they talk about.

Most long-term bond and TIP funds are still way up! Wish I had the foresight to put most of my money into those funds.

spanky123

It's fine now.

spanky123

a low cost index fund isn't guaranteed to beat a high cost active fund ..

If both funds are tracking the same index, the low-cost fund should be better.

spanky123

The alternative, active management, is the approach that implies that uncertainty can be reduced or eliminated; that events can be predicted and planned.

Who's doing the active management? God or someone from the future?

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