Search found 100 matches

by Senin
Thu Oct 08, 2015 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 3898
Views: 2435122

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

I still believe that America is the strongest country in the world. I would put the majority of my money there.

Let's say...
60% Total Market index
20% International
20% Bond

Of course this is for now. When things change I would change my allocation. America is for stability, International is for speculation, Bond is for reserve. Over the course of a lifetime, the Total Market is the lifeline.
by Senin
Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perfect Storm
Replies: 23
Views: 5757

Re: Perfect Storm

It was a perfect storm then. It was a perfect storm now. I jumped in recently when the market took a downturn. I hope you did too. I think we are in for a resuming of the upswing.
by Senin
Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is 20% REITs too high?
Replies: 26
Views: 4435

Re: Is 20% REITs too high?

I love the volatility of REITs. I invest a specific amount every month. It goes up and it goes down. The down months I get a real bargain. It is all good as long as it is high when I sell.
by Senin
Sat Jun 21, 2014 4:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perfect Storm
Replies: 23
Views: 5757

Re: Perfect Storm

A few minor blips, a few extra dollars, but no major downturn yet.

Waiting.
by Senin
Mon Jun 09, 2014 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perfect Storm
Replies: 23
Views: 5757

Re: Perfect Storm

Wow. A year ago. It turned out pretty good.
by Senin
Mon Jun 09, 2014 1:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What are you doing with the market at an all time high?
Replies: 95
Views: 11864

Re: What are you doing with the market at an all time high?

I have a good pension. So every month, I drop 2k into mutual funds (1k total, 1/2 health, 1/2 reit). And, I plan to keep doing that for as far into the future as I can see. So, a down market is actually better for me, but I take what I get. The same 2k is going in.

I can't really time the market. However, I sure as heck know when times are bad. So, in bad times, when the market is really down, I increase my monthly contributions. When bad times hit, I increase and ride it all the way down, then back up again.

Ya see, it doesn't really matter what gyrations the market does now. It only matters where the market is when I pull it out. And that is the one and only time I want it to be up.
by Senin
Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving Money from Cash Into the Market Now
Replies: 12
Views: 1945

Re: Moving Money from Cash Into the Market Now

Thanks, dickenjb. Obviously I left some factors out.

I would like about an 80% stock, 20% Stable fund split. I know that sounds high for a retiree, but I get a very good, very reliable pension for the rest of my life with built in COLA. I can recoup another down market. So, at this stage of the game I do not want so much money in Stable. I want most of the money in the stock market where I can get a good return most years.

So basically my question is .....

how do I stick about $200,000 into the market when it is at a near all time high?
by Senin
Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving Money from Cash Into the Market Now
Replies: 12
Views: 1945

Moving Money from Cash Into the Market Now

Last year I retired with $ 500,000 in my 457 account. Unfortunately half is in a stock growth mutual fund and half is in a Stable Fund account earning 1%. I am happy with the stock growth account. Not happy with the Stable account.

Now that the stock market is near an all time high, how to I move out of the Stable account and into the stock market. I fear that I am just buying at the top of the market.

Any suggestions on how to get out of the Stable and into the stock market, with doing so at near the market high? Some sort of dollar cost averaging or is there something better?
by Senin
Sat Oct 26, 2013 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deferred Comp Allocation
Replies: 3
Views: 534

Deferred Comp Allocation

I am retired in my 50's. I have a steady income through my pension. I have a small mortgage, sufficient money in the bank and sufficient other investments. I have $300,000 in a my Deferred Comp Account from my old workplace. I have no intention on touching it in the foreseeable future. I have sufficient other assets. My question is my allocation for this specific Def Comp Account. Here is my current allocation: 20 %- Stable Value (paying 2.25% a year) 10 - International 10 - Reit 20 - Small Cap Value 20 - Mid Cap Growth 20 - SP500 What do you think? I know that sounds a bit risky for a retiree, but as stated, I have sufficient monthly income. The only future major expense would be putting a child through college in 8 years, but even then, m...
by Senin
Fri Jul 26, 2013 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard total bond versus intermediate bond
Replies: 56
Views: 17017

Re: vanguard total bond versus intermediate bond

Cash! Well, bank account, money market, stable fund, etc. Making a precent or two, is better than losing percents in the bond mutual fund market. "Past performance is not an indication of future results." Bond mutual funds did outstanding in the last few years. However, it is a different time and time to look at the future. Like it or not, the future is... interest rates will be rising. The immediate effect will be lower nav and yield on bond funds. I am sitting them out until things stabilize. So my assets are divided into stock funds and cash. I dollar cost average every month, but that's just a drop in the bucket. When the market takes a dive, I will even more aggressively make regular contributions (hoping to follow the market...
by Senin
Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard total bond versus intermediate bond
Replies: 56
Views: 17017

Re: vanguard total bond versus intermediate bond

I dumped my bonds a while ago. All of them. I take responsibility for my own mistake. I never dabbled in bonds before. But they had done so well in recent years, and I kept hearing "you need a 70-30 split" that I ventured into bonds. It was a mistake. I could see the handwriting on the wall this year. Interest rates would be rising. Meaning bonds would be declining. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bonds would be declining, despite the last few years. I sold them all. Oh, I am sure bond funds will have the place again in the future. But things will need to stabilize first. But the big bond decline has yet to strike. Wait to the Fed finally says, okay that's it, it's now hands off. That's when bonds will really d...
by Senin
Sun Jun 23, 2013 4:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perfect Storm
Replies: 23
Views: 5757

Re: Perfect Storm

Obviously I hope for an up turn.

Though I salivate about getting in low during a down turn.
by Senin
Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perfect Storm
Replies: 23
Views: 5757

Perfect Storm

Wow! Is this latest decline in the market the perfect storm, or what?

Here is the deal.....
The Fed thinks the economy is so good, that they can ease their manipulation. This spooks investors. No more Fed manipulation! We shall surely perish! They missed the first point---- the economy is so good....

Anyway, the market is spooked and it drops.

Again, "the economy is so good...."

I think it's great the market dropped. It gives me a great buying opportunity. That is where money is made. But when low.

This time around, you buy when low and you know deep down that.... "the economy is so good." There is no crash here, the market will rebound.

I say, buy these bargains.
by Senin
Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?
Replies: 122
Views: 30655

Re: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?

The interest rate/bond fear is spooking Reits too. I half'ed my holding in Reits weeks ago. I like 'em, but not that much. I still hold shares and I will re-invest after they bottom. The bond situation has to stabilize.
by Senin
Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds Tanking
Replies: 99
Views: 11244

Re: Bond Funds Tanking

Someone mentioned "normal times". Well, I have been investing since the early 80's. In that 30 years there has been quite a bit of "normal time".

Then there is the guy with that really nice chart. All I can think of is... "past performance is not guarantee of future results." LOL.

You can't keep anything artificially low, then suddenly release it, and think things are just going to fall into place. Oh, eventually they will fall into place, but there is going to be drama until then.

As of right now, I will keep my "bond money" in the bank.
by Senin
Fri Jun 14, 2013 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds Tanking
Replies: 99
Views: 11244

Re: Bond Funds Tanking

This is just strange times. I will be more than happy to return to bonds once this "bubble" blows over and they return to a normal state of being. This keeping of the bonds artificially low is creating a spring board. Once things settle, Ill be happy to be back to 70/30.
by Senin
Fri Jun 14, 2013 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds Tanking
Replies: 99
Views: 11244

Bond Funds Tanking

I used to believe the old 70/30 stock/bond theory. But these are normal times. Bonds are/were kept artificially low. I have been worried about bond funds all year.

At the beginning of the year I sold all my Vfiix-GNMA bonds. I went into Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares-- just because of the 70/30 theory. But anyone could see the bond decline coming. As time progressed I became less and less enthusiastic about bond funds (at this period of time). I slowly sold them. At the start of this week, I sold off all bond funds.

Now all my holding are either in stock funds or the good old-fashioned bank.
by Senin
Sat Jun 08, 2013 2:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reits in Decline
Replies: 7
Views: 3067

Reits in Decline

Reits have taken a dive lately. I am wondering why? Is it because of interest rates rising fears?

Just curious.
by Senin
Wed Apr 10, 2013 3:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: San Francisco with kids?
Replies: 39
Views: 3913

Re: San Francisco with kids?

Oh, and if you do have a car, you might want to spend one day just driving through the city. If you avoid the rush hours, traffic is not too bad.
by Senin
Wed Apr 10, 2013 2:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: San Francisco with kids?
Replies: 39
Views: 3913

Re: San Francisco with kids?

First of all, don't get sidetracked by Monterey or out of San Fran attractions (unless you happen to be passing them anyway). Yes, definitely hit-- Alcatraz (fun and historic) Golden Gate Park. (You should drive to that one). Spend a whole day there. Visit the museums. Tea Garden. Stow lake. Rent a bike only if you have time-- which you prob won't. You HAVE to do the Wharf. That is San Fran. Spend a day, Pier 39, Scoma's, Aliotos, Ghiradelli. North Beach is very interesting, just not as much WOW. Chinatown is Chinatown. I would visit, but your kids might not be too impressed. It is a Chinatown. The Embarcadero is cool. Union Square is interesting (the wife might like it for shopping). Stay away from the Haight. You should ride a cable car, ...
by Senin
Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 3898
Views: 2435122

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

[Off topic comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
by Senin
Mon Apr 01, 2013 4:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 3898
Views: 2435122

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

Normally, I would agree with you-- bonds. But I think we are in for a bond bubble.

What I do think we need to do is to keep some cash in reserve somewhere save-- even if its a money market or bank making next to nothing.

Those market crashes-- got bless 'em. They are there for us. That is the time to invest. That is the time to make all of our money. Take our cash and invest!!!

You want 2 things.
1- Market Volatlity
2- Cash out at the top.
by Senin
Mon Apr 01, 2013 4:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley Vs. Target Retirement Income
Replies: 46
Views: 6951

Re: Wellesley Vs. Target Retirement Income

I like Wellesley, and it is my (almost) only actively managed fund.

I like its philosophy and the fact that it has a good captain and crew managing the fund.
by Senin
Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 24 Years Old - Am I Not Disciplined Enough?
Replies: 17
Views: 26599

Re: 24 Years Old - Am I Not Disciplined Enough?

You have done an excellent job of setting up your long range future and retirement.

However, don't tie too much into the long range future and retirement.

You will need cash for a house in the short range/mid range future.
by Senin
Wed Mar 27, 2013 2:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 24 Years Old - Am I Not Disciplined Enough?
Replies: 17
Views: 26599

Re: 24 Years Old - Am I Not Disciplined Enough?

You did all this by 24?!!! You are awesome. How many 24 year olds in America have set themselves up as well as you? Maybe 2%? You are doing outstanding! A couple of concerns I would have.... Are you going to need cash in the near future? Wife? House? Baby? It's great(!) that you have set up your retirement funds, but you may also need a few bucks for life, coming up. Yes, simplify your portfolio. Hey, I have been trying to do that for years. Why so much in bond funds? 1, I think they may be headed for a meltdown. 2, at your age you can take advantage of the stock market. You have plenty of time to make it all up. Just remember, when the highs get too high, it make be time to take some out. And most importantly, continue to dollar cost avera...
by Senin
Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWITX or BND in taxable account?
Replies: 5
Views: 1562

Re: VWITX or BND in taxable account?

I own Vwitx. However I would be cautious about bonds at this time. The problem is, there really is no safe investment currently that give a return worth a damn.

Perhaps put a thin slice in the Vanguard Total Market.
by Senin
Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 3898
Views: 2435122

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

Actually I was only half kidding.

In my main portfolio, I invest monthly
50% Vanguard Total
25% Vangauard REIT - Vgsix
25% Vanguard Int Tax Exempt- Vwitx

And, funny enough, its Vwitx that scares me the most. I know we are in a good bull run for the time being. Vgsix has been a star. I just wish I had invested more at a cheaper price.

As for Mr Larimore's chart...
I think we are currently somewhere around 1977...

(I've been watching the bond funds lately-- both declining Nav's and lower dividends.)
by Senin
Mon Mar 25, 2013 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 3898
Views: 2435122

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

I guess my Three Fund Portfolio has become a One (and a half) Fund Portfolio. One, of course the Total Stock Market. I have never like the international market more than the USA, so why invest in it? Sure, there are higher returns, higher risks. But why? I like the stability of the USA. And in time of tragedy, the USA will hold up better than the rest of the world. Bond funds. I don't trust them at all. I think they are in for a crash. Sure, maybe the crash will be minor compared to stock crashes of 2001 and 2008, but why take the risk. Right now you get about 3% from a bond fund (now, not last year), so why risk it? If you are going to invest for such a low return, you might as well go for CDs or money markets. So, 1- Total Stock Market 1/...
by Senin
Fri Mar 15, 2013 3:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put Profits? Don't trust Bond Funds
Replies: 37
Views: 4495

Re: Where to put Profits? Don't trust Bond Funds

I don't think you can be so rigid with your AA that you don't see the bigger picture. Now and then, different sections of the market do "blow up." There were those who thought Dot Coms would only go up, then 2000 hit. There were those who only thought the housing market would go up, then 2008 hit. I think bonds have had a hellava run up. There are definitely oversold. People were so scared of the stock market the past ten years (especially the new generation) that they flocked the "safety" of bonds. With this new raging stock bull market, people will start jumping on the band wagon--- selling bonds to buy stocks. Currently I am concerned about any bond allocation. I agree that Wellsley is not the answer. I was just throw...
by Senin
Thu Mar 14, 2013 3:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put Profits? Don't trust Bond Funds
Replies: 37
Views: 4495

Where to put Profits? Don't trust Bond Funds

Since the end of last year I have been growing more and more concerned about my bond funds. I have steadily been reducing my bond fund holdings and more into stock funds. Of course at this point I am pleased. I think I went from a 70-30 split to about 90-10 (stock-bond) currently. I just feel that bonds have had their run and are out of steam. I don't see anywhere for them to go and believe in the bond crash (not dramatic but a slow consistent decline). Here is the problem. With the recent run up of the stock market, I would like to take some profits aside. The problem is where to put the profits? As stated, I think bonds will only decline in the future. It makes little sense to put it in a money market, cd's at 1 %. Where does the money go...
by Senin
Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I invest in a stable value fund?
Replies: 40
Views: 4537

Re: Should I invest in a stable value fund?

Stable Value Funds are awesome. I just wished they weren't restricted to 401ks. I would definitely add them to my non tax portfolio.
by Senin
Thu Mar 07, 2013 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cost Basis Problem
Replies: 5
Views: 895

Re: Cost Basis Problem

I wonder if I can just take the totals at the time the funds were transfered over. Divide the total cost paid for shares (plus fees and dividends) by the total number of shares. Would that give me the cost basis? Or am I missing something there? It doesnt seem to work out (not consistent with the previous quarter where the company listed a cost basis).
by Senin
Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cost Basis Problem
Replies: 5
Views: 895

Cost Basis Problem

I started in 2006 investing in a couple of mutual funds in a mutual fund family (say Vanguard). I was diligent, 1000 a month.This kept up for a couple of years. Then my wife and I did our Trust in Nov 2010. We moved the assets in the mutual funds into a Bank Investing umbrella (say Bank of America) but still with the "Vanguard" accounts. We still technically had those mutual fund accounts but they had been moved out of the actual Mutual Fund family. Here is the problem. I saw in the "Bank of America" account that those mutual funds did not have a cost basis. So I called them. They said that I would have to find the cost basis from the original investments. Well I have the cost basis for those accounts til June, but not t...
by Senin
Fri Feb 15, 2013 4:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?
Replies: 25
Views: 3389

Re: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?

And how did GNMAs do last year? At some point, things turn.
by Senin
Fri Feb 15, 2013 4:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When is a bank CD safer than a bond fund?
Replies: 50
Views: 5887

Re: When is a bank CD safer than a bond fund?

[Personal attack removed by admin LadyGeek]

Anything held artificially tends to explode. Look at the Dot Com-- artificially high. Look at the Zero Prime Housing Market-- artificially high. Now look at the Bond Market--- held artifically low. At some point, the value of bonds will crash.

IT Tax Exempt too, but at a slower rate than GNMA's.
by Senin
Sat Feb 02, 2013 1:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When is a bank CD safer than a bond fund?
Replies: 50
Views: 5887

Re: When is a bank CD safer than a bond fund?

I too am worried. Are we in for a Bond Bubble. They have done remarkably well for the past few years. Too well. Of course the fed has kept them artificially low. That is not natural. At some point, they will explode. Is that safe? I don't think so. Right now I am very cautious of bonds. I sold all of my GNMAs. Now Im into Vanguard Interm-Term Tx-Ex Inv.
by Senin
Sat Jan 19, 2013 2:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?
Replies: 25
Views: 3389

Re: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?

The VFIIX is not looking too good right now.

As of last November I transfered a number of shares into VWITX.

Anybody know what is going on with GNMA's?
by Senin
Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?
Replies: 25
Views: 3389

Re: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?

Here are a couple of other concerns I have about GNMAs besides the recent poor performance. 1- I always liked how GNMAs seemed to be contrary to the stock market. If the maket headed south, GNMAs tended to go north. So if my stock funds lowered, I had cash in Ginnies to buy stock at a lower price. Recently, the stock market went down, and Ginnies went down (VFIIX came close to a yearly low). I didn't like that. Where as the Total Bond did rise as the Total Stock lowered. 2. Ginnies are much more sensitive to interest rates. Some day the rates will rise and Ginny will sink. Where as the Total Bond is not as sensative. 3. Taxes are killing me. If the yield is low anyway, I might as well get some tax exempt benefit (thru Munis). Otherwise, wit...
by Senin
Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?
Replies: 25
Views: 3389

Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?

GNMA's (VFIIX) are not having their best year. It could be that their steam is starting to run out. Of course, the natural inclination is to move to the Total Bond Market (VBMFX). But wait one minute, what about Tax Exempt Muni Bonds? They are having a good year. And, they are tax exempt. Right now several of them are beating VFIIX even without the tax free benefits. Wouldn't it make sense to move out of GNMAs into one of the tax exempt Munis? I live in Calif. A Vanguard Calif Muni would be ideal. Except for the fact that Calif is currently a total financial mess-- the state has no money, cities are filing bankruptcy, etc (though there was some good news after the recent election-- who knows). What do you think about the current (or future)...
by Senin
Sat Nov 17, 2012 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AA Theory for 52 Y.O. soon Retiree
Replies: 16
Views: 2331

Re: AA Theory for 52 Y.O. soon Retiree

Thanks for your opinions.

Is it the Wellesley that people are concerned with? I thought it was a good solid mixture of Bonds and Stocks. Do you think a small cap index would be better?

I just think the USA is a stronger more-stable economy than the rest of the world. I look at the problems in Europe and Asia. Despite our problems we keep chugging along.
by Senin
Sat Nov 17, 2012 4:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AA Theory for 52 Y.O. soon Retiree
Replies: 16
Views: 2331

AA Theory for 52 Y.O. soon Retiree

What do you think of this Asset Allocation

50% Total Stock Market Index
15% Reit
15% Wellesley
20% Total Bond Market

For a 52 year old with a pretty good government pension (earning $100k a year in retirement with 2% Cola a year) retiring next year.

I know it is a bit off the usual Bogle norm,but hey, I like Wellesley.

(By the way, I know I don't have any international-- I am of the belief that the USA will outperform the rest of the world.)
by Senin
Mon Jun 18, 2012 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wellesley Fund as a core Retirement Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 5425

Re: Wellesley Fund as a core Retirement Fund

Wellesley is great. I own it too. I like it. Many people have loved it over the past ten years because it chugs along when others have spiraled out.

Do not make it a core holding at this stage of the game. I think we are almost over our 10 year Bear. What does that mean? A 20 year Bull? What will Wellesley do in that scenario vs the SP?

I would say hold some Wellesley because it is a personal favorite. But don't make it a core. At your age, follow the percentages of the stock/bond ratio.
by Senin
Sat May 19, 2012 3:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 58
Views: 6669

Re: Sideways Market

My GNMA is looking pretty good right now.
by Senin
Thu May 17, 2012 3:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 58
Views: 6669

Re: Sideways Market

Here are my thoughts on the GNMA.

GNMA is not a soaring stock market superstar. It is not going to make somebody rich overnight.

It is slow and consistent, just like the Total Bond Market.

But what impressed me most was that in the 2008-2009 nightmare, when everything else was going to crap, GNMA kept on chugging along like there wasn't a care in the world. It beat the Total Bond during that time frame. And that is exactly what I am looking for--- when the world is in the toilet, there is something there that keeps turning a profit (during good times and especially bad).

Everybody is happy in good times (and GNMA performs then too). I want somebody I can count on during a crash.
by Senin
Mon May 14, 2012 4:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total/Bond Stategy
Replies: 5
Views: 1006

Vanguard Total/Bond Stategy

I have 80% VTSMX, 20% V Total Bonds.

Every month I put $1000 into the VTSMX and $500 into the Bonds. (Obviously I will have to realocate at times.)

But here is my theory. They are opposites. One goes up, the other goes down. One is erratic, the other is steady.

In addition to the standard monthly deposits, I put an additional $500 into the fund that is lower (NAV) for that month.

Then I might get some lower input. And a tidy higher return in the long run.
by Senin
Mon May 14, 2012 4:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 58
Views: 6669

Re: Sideways Market

Great! Those eight Vanguard bond funds that beat GNMA, how did they do during the crashes of the last decade? Could you compare them during that time frame to the GNMAs? Or, would you prefer not to?
by Senin
Sat May 12, 2012 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 58
Views: 6669

Re: Sideways Market

Ok, to repeat again. The VFIIX has been a good solid provider in all markets. When the market tanked a couple of times in the last ten years, GNMA kept right on chugging along. No, not the highest yields, but very very consistent. That is why I like it over the Total Bonds.

As far as past history is not guarantee of future results. True. But what else do you have to go on? History and good judgment. Nobody has anything else.

As far as a sideways market. Yep. For the last decade or so, the market has not done much. Has it even kept up with inflation? I call that a sideways market.

And, I notice the guy who knocked GNMAs still hasn't come up with anything better.
by Senin
Sat May 12, 2012 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 3898
Views: 2435122

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

Domestic works just fine for me. I believe in the USA.
by Senin
Sat May 12, 2012 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 58
Views: 6669

Re: Sideways Market

Here is the problem with a sideways market. You go up a bunch of points, you down a bunch of points, you go up a bunch of points, you go down a bunch of points. So, after a decade you end up exactly where you started. It is called the Lost Decade. And, here we go again.

Come on, there must be some way to sqeeke a profit out of this.

I have the Total Stock Market (80%) and the GNMA (20%). If the market goes up--- cool! If the maket goes down, bear style, I dollar cost average out of the GNMA's and into the Total Stock--- for total bargain prices.

Those are my two big funds. I am thinking I should add another. Perhaps Wellesley. Perhaps Vanguard High Dividend Yield. What would work best in a sideways market?
by Senin
Sat May 12, 2012 3:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 58
Views: 6669

Sideways Market

The ongoing sideways market has me a bit stumped.

I could deal with an up or a down. Up- hold on tight and keep on riding. Down- wait for the darkest time and buy, buy, buy. Either way you can make a nifty profit.

What the heck do you do with this ongoing sideways market? Sure I have GNMAs that will return me 7% a year, but the rest of the stock market is just---- sideways. Up a bit, down a bit, going no where.

What the heck do you do?