Search found 5254 matches

by Johm221122
Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor
Replies: 44
Views: 4860

Re: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor

I stumbled upon an article on Yahoo Finance: "This is the single worst time to be a passive investor in since they started passive investments... The [S&P 500] index is highly likely to not make money over the next 10 years," said Bill Smead, chief investment officer of Smead Capital ...
by Johm221122
Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I cant find anything better than S&P
Replies: 69
Views: 6593

Re: I cant find anything better than S&P

Just putting money in S&P is what I am doing. I tried to look into buying real estate Buying individual stocks and etc. But everything seems like a lot of hassle and more risk than just cruising with DCA into the market. Do you guys have any other suggestion where to put money? You failed to me...
by Johm221122
Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I cant find anything better than S&P
Replies: 69
Views: 6593

Re: I cant find anything better than S&P

Just putting money in S&P is what I am doing. I tried to look into buying real estate Buying individual stocks and etc. But everything seems like a lot of hassle and more risk than just cruising with DCA into the market. Do you guys have any other suggestion where to put money? You failed to me...
by Johm221122
Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ed Slott's new book NEW RETIREMENT SAVINGS TIME BOMB
Replies: 151
Views: 10326

Re: Ed Slott's new book NEW RETIREMENT SAVINGS TIME BOMB

It's neither easy nor cheap to make yourself 'paper poor' in order to get on Medicaid. Moving a tax-deferred balance into a trust requires realizing the income first and paying taxes accordingly. Which is the whole point of this thread...tax-deferred balances are a pain to deal with in retirement. ...
by Johm221122
Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much cash do you really hold?
Replies: 91
Views: 6233

Re: How much cash do you really hold?

Less than 1% cash. Maybe 6 weeks of my bills/spending money.
I do have 6% of my money in I Bonds but I consider them long term bonds. I use to hold EE bonds to but sold at 20 year anniversary
by Johm221122
Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retire with Less Than $1 million?
Replies: 175
Views: 35737

Re: Retire with Less Than $1 million?

Zillions wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:41 pm 1. When people retire with less than a million, is it expected that there will be NO housing costs in retirement?

No, not even close
by Johm221122
Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:03 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: View on dividend growth stocks and REITs
Replies: 15
Views: 1596

Re: View on dividend growth stocks and REITs

seoulmac wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:25 am
Johm221122 wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:16 am REITs in my opinion should be held at market weight unless you have a reason or specific knowledge to overweight them from market weight
By saying market weight then it should be part of the all world stock market index already?
Yes
by Johm221122
Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:16 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: View on dividend growth stocks and REITs
Replies: 15
Views: 1596

Re: View on dividend growth stocks and REITs

I am reading Burton Malkiel’s book and he mentioned dividend growth stocks in bonds and bonds substitutes as part of the AA. With bond yields being low, this comes to my mind. What is general bogleheads’ view on dividend growth stocks? If something worth to be part of the AA, what are some good div...
by Johm221122
Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retire with Less Than $1 million?
Replies: 175
Views: 35737

Re: Retire with Less Than $1 million?

I'm definitely going to have less than one million. Actually SS at 70 will be enough by itself to meet my basic needs.
I'm planning on spending about 30% to 40% of my portfolio in between retirement (hopefully early to mid 60's) and Social Security.
by Johm221122
Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The safest way to 7%?
Replies: 88
Views: 8312

Re: The safest way to 7%?

And yes, reading miscomprehension is strong with this thread. Lots of people who can't get past "safe" in "safest". To be fair, OP could have been better worded by saying "least risky" instead of "safest". He also used the word "safely." It cannot b...
by Johm221122
Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fund allocation for $1.5M in 401k Retiring in 5 years?
Replies: 18
Views: 2099

Re: Fund allocation for $1.5M in 401k Retiring in 5 years?

There is no answer to your question. Nobody knows future, your risk tolerance etc... The answer lies inside you and your risk tolerance, ability to adapt and pure luck of sequence of returns. I personally am choosing 60/40 also but there are no guarantees. You could have almost any outcome from dyi...
by Johm221122
Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fund allocation for $1.5M in 401k Retiring in 5 years?
Replies: 18
Views: 2099

Re: Fund allocation for $1.5M in 401k Retiring in 5 years?

There is no answer to your question. Nobody knows future, your risk tolerance etc... The answer lies inside you and your risk tolerance, ability to adapt and pure luck of sequence of returns. I personally am choosing 60/40 also but there are no guarantees. You could have almost any outcome from dyin...
by Johm221122
Sun Mar 28, 2021 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The safest way to 7%?
Replies: 88
Views: 8312

Re: The safest way to 7%?

And yes, reading miscomprehension is strong with this thread. Lots of people who can't get past "safe" in "safest". To be fair, OP could have been better worded by saying "least risky" instead of "safest". He also used the word "safely." It cannot b...
by Johm221122
Sun Mar 28, 2021 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The safest way to 7%?
Replies: 88
Views: 8312

Re: The safest way to 7%?

There's a difference between someone asking for a guaranteed 7% return, which doesn't exist, and the safest way possible to shoot for 7% long term. OP never asked for the former despite some of the dismissive responses he received. The latter is very doable with plain old VOO or VTI. Will it return...
by Johm221122
Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High Yield Bond Funds VWESX vs. VWEHX ?
Replies: 15
Views: 1206

Re: High Yield Bond Funds VWESX vs. VWEHX ?

Both are attractive but I wanted to see if anyone has opinions or experience with these funds. My main goal is monthly cash flow/return and I have medium to high risk tolerance.l Thanks! Welcome to Forum, Most of us think total return and not income. We need more information, try asking portfolio q...
by Johm221122
Sat Mar 27, 2021 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 v Total Stock - What is your favorite and why?
Replies: 104
Views: 8879

Re: S&P 500 v Total Stock - What is your favorite and why?

I didn't have a choice most of my investment timeline. Now that I do, S&P 500 works better because I overweight Mid/Small cap.
But for most people I would recommend Total Stock Market index
by Johm221122
Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goal & Age Based Asset Allocation
Replies: 41
Views: 1930

Re: Goal & Age Based Asset Allocation

I use a goal based AA (until withdrawal stage)
33% or less of goal or less 80% stocks
33% to 66% of goal 70% stocks
66%+ and retirement 60% stocks
by Johm221122
Mon Mar 22, 2021 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 1297

Re: Bonds in retirement

Bond funds not fairing too well lately and it appears the future is not bright. We are recently retired and have 50% of portfolio in bond split amongst total index bond, high yield index bonds, and short term index bonds. Does that appear to be a good allocation? Your answer to 50% bonds, will only...
by Johm221122
Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRK B shares, good for taxable account after taking an RMD and not needing the money for expenses?
Replies: 16
Views: 1805

Re: BRK B shares, good for taxable account after taking an RMD and not needing the money for expenses?

I'd say it's unnecessary risk. The oversized returns were when it was a small company and Buffet is 90 years old.
Don't let the tax tail waive the dog
by Johm221122
Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?
Replies: 224
Views: 17936

Re: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?

The problem with OP's thought process on having another 20 years of "Bull Market" is faulty. The most important thing is your ending amount after 20 years. We currently have not have had a 20 year Bull market and most of us are happy with portfolio returns. A 20 year Bull market shouldn't ...
by Johm221122
Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A one fund portfolio ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1755

Re: A one fund portfolio ?

why don’t I invest in a single fund that is all S&P stocks and returns the average 8% over the next 30 years? This seems to me straightforward, simple and resilient against market drops like 2008 or 3/2020. Is this less than optimal or misguided? Thanks. Because diversification is a free lunch ...
by Johm221122
Sat Mar 20, 2021 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?
Replies: 224
Views: 17936

Re: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?

jebmke wrote: Sat Mar 20, 2021 11:33 am when was the first 20 years?
+1
I don't remember 2000/20001 thru 2010 as a bull market,at least not U.S. large cap
by Johm221122
Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds
Replies: 9
Views: 864

Re: Bond funds

I’m a little worried about my bond portfolio with interest rates going up . Your trying to time the bond market and I have heard this "theory" for 20 years. You shouldn't be worried about your portfolio. You need to have an asset allocation that meets" your need, ability and willingn...
by Johm221122
Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1378

Re: Bond Fund

If interest rates increase. Does anyone change their bond index fund percentage to avoid possible decrease value? No, I would rebalance Rebalancing is the action of bringing a portfolio that has deviated away from one's target asset allocation back into line. The objective is to maintain a consiste...
by Johm221122
Sun Mar 14, 2021 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to invest new large sum in current frothy market
Replies: 51
Views: 5015

Re: How to invest new large sum in current frothy market

You should lump sum
The only question is should you be less aggressive. Investing shouldn't have you worried
by Johm221122
Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement funds
Replies: 9
Views: 837

Re: Retirement funds

What type of funds do you guys invest in when you're nearing retirement or in retirement? Do you guys keep the 3 fund portfolio or do you guys transition some of your funds to the high dividend yield or dividend appreciation. Thanks The funds you hold at any given time should depend on your investm...
by Johm221122
Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation for a lazy investor
Replies: 9
Views: 1215

Re: Asset Allocation for a lazy investor

babyyoda_coins wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:46 pm I feel like I can lower bond to 10% as the returns have not been pretty at all recently .


BND- 15%, adjust to 10%?
This is market timing. What will you say when stocks crash?
Your stock/bond ratio should be based on "your need ability and willingness to take risk"
by Johm221122
Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation in Roth IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 1033

Re: Asset Allocation in Roth IRA

Not enough information.
Try
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asking_ ... _questions
Do you have a 401k, for example
by Johm221122
Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401K : Have 15K in a Money market fund, want to move this to S&P500 index fund. Should I do it lumpsum or 2K over 8month
Replies: 20
Views: 1490

Re: 401K : Have 15K in a Money market fund, want to move this to S&P500 index fund. Should I do it lumpsum or 2K over 8m

If your investment plan creates fear, your to aggressive. Create a plan that lets you sleep at night and then invest into that plan all at once
by Johm221122
Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Priorities on investments
Replies: 19
Views: 1792

Re: Priorities on investments

Hello, There are a number of posts outlining a "traditional" order of investing, but What was/is the order of your contributions? As this author argues against Trad IRA contributions... The Tax Bomb In Your Retirement Accounts: How The Roth IRA Helps You Avoid It (Scandlen Sustainable Wea...
by Johm221122
Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would you lump sum right now?
Replies: 57
Views: 4274

Re: Would you lump sum right now?

bugleheadd wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:48 pm put in 50% right away. you will always be half right
So your selling half your portfolio and getting back in using DCA?
by Johm221122
Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would you lump sum right now?
Replies: 57
Views: 4274

Re: Would you lump sum right now?

Studies have shown that lump sum works out better than DCA for most long term investors. If the current height of the market concerns you, you could perhaps lump sum 50% now, and pick a time period to DCA the remainder periodically. I second this approach. Even though lump sum has the better track ...
by Johm221122
Tue Mar 09, 2021 7:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would you lump sum right now?
Replies: 57
Views: 4274

Re: Would you lump sum right now?

If you had $100K to invest and it was going to Total Stock Market (per your chosen Asset Allocation), with the goal of having it grow for 20-30 years, would you lump sum it right now? Tomorrow? Next month? Why or why not? I would definitely lump sum into a portfolio that meets my risk tolerance. Ac...
by Johm221122
Tue Mar 09, 2021 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance
Replies: 59
Views: 4415

Re: Risk tolerance

Bogleheads forum taught me that "Nobody knows anything." Did it? Yes History shows that market goes up in the long run. You know this, though? Yes. 2008 & 2020 have reaffirmed this assertion I am longgggg way from retirement. You know this too? Yes. Know thyself. Holding an accumulate...
by Johm221122
Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just when I tought I understood why it's better not to pick stocks, I got confused again
Replies: 27
Views: 4157

Re: Just when I tought I understood why it's better not to pick stocks, I got confused again

steve321 wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:51 am So am I missing something?
A long list of things
When will you sell?
Tax efficiency in some cases
Risk of underperforming the market
Stress

Plus a lot more
by Johm221122
Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How S&P 500 Index Funds Can Make You A Millionaire"
Replies: 14
Views: 3081

Re: "How S&P 500 Index Funds Can Make You A Millionaire"

While the S&P is a great fund, the bigger part of equation in my opinion is The key, however, is to invest consistently and give yourself enough time to take advantage of compounded returns. https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/07/how-sp-500-index-funds-can-make-you-a-millionaire/ Time and com...
by Johm221122
Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance
Replies: 59
Views: 4415

Re: Risk tolerance

From link Strong markets lead to higher (believed) risk tolerance I actually believe that the beginning of your investment timeline is more important to your risk tolerance. Because I started in 1999 and the next 10 years were the "lost decade",I'm more conservative, the last 6 months for ...
by Johm221122
Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bother other portfolios rather than All weather portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 3698

Re: Why bother other portfolios rather than All weather portfolio

HolyGrill wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 11:41 pm
It gives 8% return per year and stdev is around 8%.

Past performance does not guarantee future performance. We can all pick good funds/portfolio's looking backwards.
by Johm221122
Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401K vs Roth IRA
Replies: 2
Views: 364

Re: 401K vs Roth IRA

Welcome to Forum,
We need more information
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asking_ ... _questions
Over the years a practice on asking portfolio questions has emerged on this forum
by Johm221122
Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whole market vs S&P500 vs handful high quality stocks?
Replies: 19
Views: 1890

Re: Whole market vs S&P500 vs handful high quality stocks?

The average rate of return of investors who chased high quality blue chip stocks is a lot more than that (esp. over the last 2/3 years). Source? Or did you yourself do a survey of "investors who chased high quality blue chip stocks"? How many investors? Sampling methodology? Yadda yadda y...
by Johm221122
Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sleeping at night and asset allocation
Replies: 11
Views: 1273

Re: Sleeping at night and asset allocation

Historic interest rates on bonds is 6% vs. current yield of 1.2%. With a duration of about 6 years in intermediate bond, you're looking at a potential 30% decline in principal value if rates go back up 5 percentage points to historic levels. And the exact chances of this are? I agree with your answ...
by Johm221122
Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mid and small tilt
Replies: 22
Views: 1832

Re: Mid and small tilt

Welcome to the club. I actually have mid-cap and small cap holdings or “tilts” because I’m not a fan of the total market index weight. You should be good with your picks. +1 this is me also 60% S&P 500 and 40% Extended market. I didn't have access to Total stock Market for most of my investment...
by Johm221122
Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which ideas or strategies that helped you discover through Bogleheads?
Replies: 48
Views: 3116

Re: Which ideas or strategies that helped you discover through Bogleheads?

thesandman wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 2:02 pm I'm surprised to see comments regarding the non-existance of rebalancing premium. Could someone point me in the direction of where I can read more about this?
viewtopic.php?t=22568
by Johm221122
Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which ideas or strategies that helped you discover through Bogleheads?
Replies: 48
Views: 3116

Re: Which ideas or strategies that helped you discover through Bogleheads?

Social Security strategies- which for me if nothing changes, will be at 70 because Social Security is great longevity insurance Risk- Bogleheads taught me to understand the risks of investment strategies "Turn off the noise"- Bogleheads has definitely taught me to turn off noise and financ...
by Johm221122
Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week
Replies: 113
Views: 8789

Re: What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week

Tbh I'm quite surprised that people still talk about 4% SWR, which is constant-dollar + inflation. Many people warned that this idea isn't practical in retirement. Switching to a percentage-based model would naturally answer the OP's original question. Since when hasn't been practical? Definitely n...
by Johm221122
Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week
Replies: 113
Views: 8789

Re: What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week

Tbh I'm quite surprised that people still talk about 4% SWR, which is constant-dollar + inflation. Many people warned that this idea isn't practical in retirement. Switching to a percentage-based model would naturally answer the OP's original question. Since when hasn't been practical? Definitely n...
by Johm221122
Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week
Replies: 113
Views: 8789

Re: What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week

Tbh I'm quite surprised that people still talk about 4% SWR, which is constant-dollar + inflation. Many people warned that this idea isn't practical in retirement. Switching to a percentage-based model would naturally answer the OP's original question. Since when hasn't been practical? Definitely n...
by Johm221122
Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never saw myself buying gold ...
Replies: 146
Views: 10866

Re: Never saw myself buying gold ...

You don't feel the low capital investor and the people with agendas are the big driver of for example Bitcoin up to now or at least very recent past? I don't know. Pre-March-2020 I would have agreed with you but I think some of the recent action may actually be speculation on severe inflation by we...
by Johm221122
Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never saw myself buying gold ...
Replies: 146
Views: 10866

Re: Never saw myself buying gold ...

The bearish responses to this thread reassure me that we are still very early in the cycle for precious metals and maybe cryptos. Currencies and stores of value serve a human need. Their viability depends on the viability of the shared belief in them, just like cash or any investment except somethi...
by Johm221122
Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week
Replies: 113
Views: 8789

Re: What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week

In most time periods you could withdrawal 4% plus inflation every year and make it 30 years. But if you do there is no guarantee that this would be one of those time periods. I don't know how to post a chart but a Google search will easily get you one. It's over a 90% chance of working IMO, calling...