Search found 130 matches

by Bluce
Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Failing at Market Timing & Stock Picking- How to get an Asset Allocation I'm Comfortable With
Replies: 34
Views: 2822

Re: Failing at Market Timing & Stock Picking- How to get an Asset Allocation I'm Comfortable With

@Bluce Always refreshing to bring the focus back to what matters. "Most of us don't buy and sell. If you think you have an allocation you can live with, implement it in as tax efficient way possible and move on with life, your work is done." Now I can make money while foraging around a jungle or fr...
by Bluce
Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Failing at Market Timing & Stock Picking- How to get an Asset Allocation I'm Comfortable With
Replies: 34
Views: 2822

Re: Failing at Market Timing & Stock Picking- How to get an Asset Allocation I'm Comfortable With

Tldr My commitment: I will not sell any assets from my major portfolio listed above without posting here first and waiting 3 days, 72 full hours. I will rebalance by adding into the underweighted assets. Earning cash, naturally, cash will be overweight from the 5% and be distributed to the other as...
by Bluce
Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Excellent decision. I sold mine 5+ years ago, after holding for a decade during which time I traveled extensively for business to many of these countries and realized that their economic systems were not built to benefit the investor. No tilt, no small cap, no REIT, no mid-cap, just VTSAX does the ...
by Bluce
Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Excellent decision. I sold mine 5+ years ago, after holding for a decade during which time I traveled extensively for business to many of these countries and realized that their economic systems were not built to benefit the investor. No tilt, no small cap, no REIT, no mid-cap, just VTSAX does the ...
by Bluce
Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Excellent decision. I sold mine 5+ years ago, after holding for a decade during which time I traveled extensively for business to many of these countries and realized that their economic systems were not built to benefit the investor. No tilt, no small cap, no REIT, no mid-cap, just VTSAX does the ...
by Bluce
Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:14 pm
My Vanguard taxable account shows portfolio performance Jan 2018 to date as 1.1%. Where is my 7% return??? LOL!
Hmm. Are you mostly stocks?

My 35/65 PF shows +3.94% TR from January 1, 2018 to yesterday (no Beardstown math).

YTD is +10.27% TR.
by Bluce
Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??
Replies: 86
Views: 8163

Re: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??

whodidntante wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:32 pm
JoeRetire wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:35 pm

Wait a minute - I was promised that coal would heat my house and run my car. Clean coal, not that dirty kind.
My grandmother didn't drive but she did use coal to heat her house. There was nothing clean about it though. Clean coal was 10 years off then.
I still use coal to heat my house.
by Bluce
Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??
Replies: 86
Views: 8163

Re: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??

If all passenger cars worldwide searched to electricity, how would this affect consumption of oil? Based on what I read here on Bogleheads, one can spend $60,000 on a Tesla and basically become overnight millionaires on the gas savings alone. :wink: And you can take a fumeless drive to the track an...
by Bluce
Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??
Replies: 86
Views: 8163

Re: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??

If all passenger cars worldwide [switched] to electricity, how would this affect consumption of oil? The last time I checked (a few years ago) the majority of electric production in the US is by coal and natural gas. So the consumption of oil would, obviously, go down and the consumption/price of c...
by Bluce
Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??
Replies: 86
Views: 8163

Re: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??

If all passenger cars worldwide [switched] to electricity, how would this affect consumption of oil? The last time I checked (a few years ago) the majority of electric production in the US is by coal and natural gas. So the consumption of oil would, obviously, go down and the consumption/price of c...
by Bluce
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Some days I'm half-right, and some days I'm half-wrong. What should I do Monday morning? :oops: I can't tell if you're serious or not. But for those who are wondering what to do Monday ... who knows what will actually happen in the various markets on Monday. Regardless, stay the course, assuming yo...
by Bluce
Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Lee_WSP wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:52 pm
sambb wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:47 pm
Will the saudi oil attack cause more freefall monday
I predict a bond rebound. So it's safe to bet the opposite.
Some days I'm half-right, and some days I'm half-wrong.

What should I do Monday morning? :oops:
by Bluce
Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1506
Views: 150110

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

What about the Friday the 13th scenario?! :) Yeah that really scared me, not to mention the double-whammy of the harvest moon tonight, so I sold everything this morning and bought gold bullion, batteries, milk, bread, and ammunition. :shock: Based on the conversation earlier: But was the bread inte...
by Bluce
Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1506
Views: 150110

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:54 am
What about the Friday the 13th scenario?! :)
Yeah that really scared me, not to mention the double-whammy of the harvest moon tonight, so I sold everything this morning and bought gold bullion, batteries, milk, bread, and ammunition. :shock:
by Bluce
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I'm pretty close to believing nobody knows nothing. The benefits of knowing something are enormous, and we know that people are really trying. In a way I would like to go back and study economics, but now I don't care enough to actually do it. I am not sure whether economics is totally hopeless, or...
by Bluce
Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

At least you admit to having a crystal ball. Didn't Jack Bogle say, "No one know nuthin ". Funny how some bogleheads throw even Jack's principles out the window. Jack certainly did say “no one knows nothing.” Then he went on to give us his opinion on a variety of investing topics. :happy Indeed. I ...
by Bluce
Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I never thought I would do this, but I sold the last of my VXUS yesterday. After holding int'l funds for probably 25 years, I now have no devoted int'l funds and have sided with Jack Bogle on this. Because we cannot see what the future brings, there is no hard-core evidence for either argument. I'v...
by Bluce
Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I never thought I would do this, but I sold the last of my VXUS yesterday. After holding int'l funds for probably 25 years, I now have no devoted int'l funds and have sided with Jack Bogle on this. Because we cannot see what the future brings, there is no hard-core evidence for either argument. I've...
by Bluce
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1506
Views: 150110

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

My PF clipped another all-time high point today. It's the third record high since July 24. (No Beardstown Ladies math involved :shock: )
by Bluce
Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Wait, what happened to Magic Tuesday? Is it because of the holiday? How do you all expect me to efficiently market time during the week with a flawed system?!? :twisted: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4681269#p4681269 The PTB are making some adjustments and are fine-tuning to the ...
by Bluce
Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Are we in this thread today?? :confused :confused
by Bluce
Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1506
Views: 150110

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

My portfolio all-time high was on July 24 . . . until today when it went a bit above that.

So, that's okay. :shock:
by Bluce
Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1506
Views: 150110

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well the markets are up about a half a percent as I type. Dang, I'm getting tired of this thread. I wonder when we can get back to the "Free fall" thread again? :confused Stocks are about back to where they closed yesterday. So, they’ve fallen a half percent since your post. Free fall! Hey Stinky, ...
by Bluce
Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1506
Views: 150110

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well the markets are up about a half a percent as I type. Dang, I'm getting tired of this thread. I wonder when we can get back to the "Free fall" thread again? :confused bond market isn't buying this pump and dump. could not hold 40 level again, sell the resistance it will drop I have a "set and f...
by Bluce
Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1506
Views: 150110

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well the markets are up about a half a percent as I type.

Dang, I'm getting tired of this thread. I wonder when we can get back to the "Free fall" thread again? :confused
by Bluce
Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Has anyone here ever met a "market timing expert"? :confused There are scores of "self professed market timing experts" on CNBC. Its easy to be a market timing expert. Just predict a crash every year and you’ll never miss one. That’s what Peter Schiff does. LOL, yes that guy's a real beaut. :oops: ...
by Bluce
Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:54 pm
Bluce wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:28 am
Has anyone here ever met a "market timing expert"? :confused
There are scores of "self professed market timing experts" on CNBC.
Market timers are what caused the inverted yield curve.
I'm too cheap to have cable, so the lure of Investment Porn does not affect me. :shock:
by Bluce
Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Although I can't find it now, earlier this AM Marketwatch had an article with the title being something about "Market timing experts."

Has anyone here ever met a "market timing expert"? :confused

I'm still looking. :shock:
by Bluce
Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

At 8:15 AM, Dow futures UP 181.
by Bluce
Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Come on, Tuesday! We're depending on you to do your stuff. Have to get through Monday first (which is not a Friday, btw). :P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A livesoft-defined RBD for VFINX meets all of these criteria: 1) VFINX drop of 2.5...
by Bluce
Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Does anybody seriously think that the past 1-2 years of market movements will mean anything when viewed five or ten years from now? :shock:


Image
by Bluce
Sat Aug 24, 2019 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

We haven't seen a longer term bear market in a very long time. Go back and read posts here during 2008. Everyone is a hero when stocks are dropping 3% and they are buying. But when they fall 30+% and continue to fall, with daily speculation about the stability of our financial institutions? Well, l...
by Bluce
Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Wow, an hour or so ago the market was not doing much. Just checked, indexes are now down almost 1.5%.

The sky is falling! Sell! Buy gold, water, batteries, bread, and ammo!
by Bluce
Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:44 am
abuss368 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:33 am
Over the long term the markets always have negative noise and challenges: wars, famine, recessions, depressions, attacks, different interest rate cycles, and other concerns.
Haha, great chart.

I think I'll print it and show it to my chartist, market-timing buddy. :beer
by Bluce
Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: US Stocks in Free Fall thread

Honestly, the title of this thread is confusing. I thought it was the actual REAL "US Stocks in Free Fall" thread. This thread should be re titled, "US Stocks in Free fall thread thread." Looks like these two were merged. So no more confusion. This post makes no sense now but there's now no confusi...
by Bluce
Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Stinky wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:30 pm

Remember - Tomorrow is Make-Big-Money Tuesday!
Sounds like a "can't lose" strategy. :) :moneybag
by Bluce
Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1506
Views: 150110

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:56 pm
Oh, Oh!

Is the recession already over?

Seems we hardly got to know it at all.

Broken Man 1999
I'm not sure what's going on. :confused

But just to be safe, I've got a post ready for the "other" thread on Monday. :shock: :shock:
by Bluce
Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2428
Views: 440803

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

PF is 35/65 and is up 8.57% YTD. :beer
by Bluce
Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

ruralavalon wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:28 pm
Back to the topic of free fall, our Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX) up fell today :) .
Does that mean we should be in the "other" thread?? :confused
by Bluce
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

CBS News this morning is reporting: “Fourth Largest Drop Ever!!!” Point drop in the Dow, that is. My biggest pet peeve ever is that you ONLY hear about the points the market dropped. News organizations hardly ever report the percentages, which is really the only thing that matters. And they only re...
by Bluce
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Depending on your bond fund of choice it may not even be that bad. Longer treasuries exploded today. Nice humblebrag by the way. Yes, I have a fair amount in TLH (+1.21%) 10-20yr. T's., and SCHR (+.41%) intermediate T's. Not enough to offset the equity loss, but it helps. :happy EDIT: "Humblebrag"?...
by Bluce
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Are we having fun yet? :shock: I didn't check my 35/65 PF balance today. I'd rather not know, just like in 2008. :confused Oh boy... 6% below all time high... My bond-heavy PF is probably down 1-2% off its high which was on July 24. 8-) It's the amount of dollars down today I'd rather not know. I'l...
by Bluce
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Are we having fun yet? :shock:

I didn't check my 35/65 PF balance today. I'd rather not know, just like in 2008. :confused
by Bluce
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1506
Views: 150110

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I guess we're in this thread today? :shock:

It's hard to keep up -- I'm glad I'm a Buy & Holder! 8-)
by Bluce
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Which thread are we in today? :confused :confused
by Bluce
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 1080

Re: Bond fund diversification

I read somewhere that during one of the corrections (I believe 2008) that bonds went up 5% as stocks went down. This depends on the type of bonds. Treasuries went up in October 2008 when the stock market crashed; corporate bonds lost a bit. Therefore, you needed less in Treasuries than in corporate...
by Bluce
Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett and Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 1978

Re: Warren Buffett and Bonds

I agree, and I think what you said also applies to the advice he publicly talked about regarding a 90/10 portfolio for the average investor. I don't want to apply super-human qualities to the guy, but he is a bit of an investing machine and he may be able to emotionally handle such an allocation. M...
by Bluce
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I think you can have high stock allocation if you are flexible. At some point the delta on return will get you to the same $ in bonds with a lot more stocks to play with. My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on. I guess one can be brave when your time horizon...
by Bluce
Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055976

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Dr. Bernstein advised retirees "if you've won the game, then stop playing", meaning that you should hold a minimal allocation to stocks. I hope you've done that. Why stop playing if you enjoy it, or want to leave a large inheritance to family/charity? I’ll never have a minimal allocation to stocks....
by Bluce
Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 18306

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

This won’t be the most intellectual thing I’ll ever post, but it’s just hard to believe that I’ll reap much meaningful financial gain from locking into a bunch of 2% nominal long term treasuries as a 33 year old. You could have said the same thing in January when long term rates were at 3%. If you ...