Search found 950 matches

by Bluce
Mon May 18, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478102

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Peter Schiff throws in the towel :o https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1262375120481538048?s=21 Schiff is a perma-bear. As I recall, the only thing he was right about was the real estate bubble in '07. Buy gold! Buy gold company stocks! Buy silver! The dollar is worthless! Well I bought some gr...
by Bluce
Fri May 15, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Boomers have been mostly in charge for the past 30 years, and the national debt has ballooned. That, and climate change, appear to be future issues that the younger generations are going to have to deal with, and they blame boomers (and they are not 100% wrong to do so). But no one really hates you...
by Bluce
Thu May 14, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Just curious. Since you went to cash you probably will pay tax on capital gains? Did you expect it or it doesn’t buzzer you to pay big bill at once? Maybe it is not that big? Just trying to put myself in your shoes) mentally. I suppose this is a good point. Admittedly, I am young and my portfolio i...
by Bluce
Thu May 14, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The Stinky dictionary - A "boomer-ism" is something said by old folks like you (I think) and me who were born between 1946 and 1964. (For any who can't calculate, that makes us somewhere between about 56 and 74 years old.) It's said in a derogatory way. Clearly, some in the younger generation think...
by Bluce
Thu May 14, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Looking forward to the decline in equities. SPX 1800 is when I jump back in. No charting magic here -- just have an ability to realise that [MACRO, non-noise] bad = down and good = up Sorry, but the data tells a different story than the narrative, and for all the aphorisms and boomer-isms thrown ab...
by Bluce
Wed May 13, 2020 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

In all serious this is a good time to make portfolio changes if one feels they're overly exposed. SPX 2800 is a dignified exit point. You should make sure your asset allocation is appropriate to your risk profile. Never time the market. There you go. I fixed it for ya. Agree. I would never make AA ...
by Bluce
Wed May 13, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

In all serious this is a good time to make portfolio changes if one feels they're overly exposed. SPX 2800 is a dignified exit point. You should make sure your asset allocation is appropriate to your risk profile. Never time the market. There you go. I fixed it for ya. Agree. I would never make AA ...
by Bluce
Sun May 10, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

How are you guys doing so much better than market averages? Is it individual stocks (idiosyncratic risk) or did you guys time your new money contributions perfectly in late March? I am down somewhere between 10% and 13%. Not looking closely. Vanguard Total stock market is down 13.32% YTD which is m...
by Bluce
Sun May 10, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

AA = 29/71

-3.53% YTD.
by Bluce
Wed May 06, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up 12% YTD. AA is 95/5. The increase is a result of continued maximum 401k contributions, ESPP purchasing at the bottom of the market (pure luck), and two stimulus checks which were dumped into roth :D Not sure how that's possible..... do you mean your balance is 12% higher than the start of the ye...
by Bluce
Tue May 05, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up 12% YTD. AA is 95/5. The increase is a result of continued maximum 401k contributions, ESPP purchasing at the bottom of the market (pure luck), and two stimulus checks which were dumped into roth :D Not sure how that's possible..... do you mean your balance is 12% higher than the start of the ye...
by Bluce
Tue May 05, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Down 4.16% YTD with 30/70 AA.

My stock AA had dropped to maybe 28%, so around 3 weeks ago I sold some of my Treasury holdings and put it into the TSM to bring stocks back to 30%.
by Bluce
Mon May 04, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478102

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

And every once in a while, a good chunk of the timers win. The others kind of lose, but then get back up and do it again to win some other day. You just described a gambler's rationale for gambling. Except the majority don't win another day. They'll lose, lose, win, lose lose. Their little, infrequ...
by Bluce
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Predicts
Replies: 28
Views: 3514

Re: Ray Dalio Predicts

Can you make an argument against those points of massive debt, low interest rates, and qe and rule out the downside risk of all of that and for an economy that isn’t fair? It doesn’t mean that we are going to see negative real returns but it concerns me that maybe we cut our future expected growth....
by Bluce
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Predicts
Replies: 28
Views: 3514

Re: Ray Dalio Predicts

Aside from idle chit-chat, why would anybody (especially here on BH) listen to anyone who is predicting the future? :confused

"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." -- John Kenneth Galbraith
by Bluce
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will indexes continue to perform well?
Replies: 35
Views: 1726

Re: Will indexes continue to perform well?

I was wondering whether we think indexes will continue to outperform 85% of actively managed portfolios? With the current crisis, my brother believes portfolios without specific exposure to technology stocks will see small to neutral gains over the long run moving forward. Is anyone changing their ...
by Bluce
Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: what are you doing with all the home equity?
Replies: 117
Views: 7428

Re: Retirees: what are you doing with all the home equity?

My niece is my end-of-life health thingy, and has power of attorney, so as compensation I have willed my (debt-free) house to her.
by Bluce
Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478102

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Every step closer to 2950 in reality is a step closer to new lows because that's where the market truly rolls over! So the market needs to go up some more so it can go down? I guess I just don’t understand.... Stinky: The above is a computer model that is based on 5,000 blended charts from past mar...
by Bluce
Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do most Bogleheads TLH?
Replies: 55
Views: 3262

Re: Do most Bogleheads TLH?

Last time there was a significant drawdown, I looked into TLH but was unsure: I was (and still am) mostly in auto-rebalancing funds, and the upside seemed marginal compared to the added complexity. By the time I had gathered enough information, the opportunity had disappeared. This time it looks li...
by Bluce
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478102

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Forester wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:09 am
House of cards tumbles down 2900-2950. Bull trap because 3000 is within reach. If you make money off this prediction, donate some of your profit to charity.
"Bull trap." :oops:

Well there's certainly enough "bull" around here, where is that trap when we need it?
by Bluce
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

manatee2005 wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:51 pm
Bluce wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:35 am
AA = 30/70

Down 4.75% YTD
How?
Probably small caps and a closed-end bond fund.
by Bluce
Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant
Replies: 106
Views: 4457

Re: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant

I've been saying this for years, but I'll say it again: Stock market movements are driven by millions of people making millions of self-interested decisions every moment. If past patterns, with an infinite number of variables, can predict future patterns, why isn't anyone working on a computer progr...
by Bluce
Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant
Replies: 106
Views: 4457

Re: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant

NOTE: Dow down -638 as we speak. VIX is spiking. Who needs this mess? I don't. I'm happy to be out. Maybe it goes up +638 tomorrow. This market is a disaster. If a V-shaped economic recovery doesn't come soon, what comes next? The volatility is no one's friend. If that is your main concern, set up ...
by Bluce
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

AA = 30/70

Down 4.75% YTD
by Bluce
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478102

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

It's nuts. The technology sector has outperformed the broad U.S. market every year since 2014. After 2017 you could have said it's due to underperform and tilted away. And you would have missed an 8% outperformance in 2018, 18% outperformance in 2019, and 8% outperformance in 2020 already. I also t...
by Bluce
Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert
Replies: 25
Views: 4127

Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:49 pm
Like everyone else who tries to predict the markets future, Bob's record is mixed. No one gets it right all the time.

Garland Whizzer
TRANSLATION: Buying or selling based on a coin flip is as good as any other method of market timing.
by Bluce
Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does compounding really work with stocks?
Replies: 64
Views: 4722

Re: Does compounding really work with stocks?

The simple answer: Yes, if all cap gains and divvies, if any, are always re-invested. Or even more simple: Yes, if the total return is always re-invested (but I'm sure someone will argue the point -- this is the internet, after all). Well, compounding is always present, but certainly if you withdra...
by Bluce
Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does compounding really work with stocks?
Replies: 64
Views: 4722

Re: Does compounding really work with stocks?

The simple answer: Yes, if all cap gains and divvies, if any, are always re-invested.

Or even more simple: Yes, if the total return is always re-invested (but I'm sure someone will argue the point -- this is the internet, after all).
by Bluce
Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478102

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

madbrain wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:33 pm
Jim180 wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:45 pm
It may have been showing the Thursday close.
SPY is slightly down to $276.40 in the Sunday extended hours night session as I type this.
CNN futures show the SnP down 1.62%.
by Bluce
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478102

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The US tax payer hasn’t got a choice. If they didn’t, bond buyers like me would demand such a high interest rate, they’d have a far bigger problem. What would be a problem with that? Isn't it what capitalism is? Besides, things do not stop during bankruptcy. If there is something in a business that...
by Bluce
Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

AA = 28/72

Down 6.57% YTD.
by Bluce
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32131

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

I've been thinking of doing a little re-balancing, taking from Treasuries and putting it in the TSM.

But I haven't done it yet, maybe in the next week or so. I only have to move about 2% to get back to my desired AA, so not a big deal either way.
by Bluce
Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478102

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Replying to the above posters who questioned my previous post: Spending down my portfolio would be -- and was -- a last resort for me. But I'm old school, so maybe I don't understand today's thinking. I'm self-employed, and three times since the late '90s I was so slow that I was literally running o...
by Bluce
Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478102

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I've been all about staying the course but man is this market irrational. If it goes up another 2-3% to S&P 2850 I'll finally break even which is enticing me to sell everything out and sit on the sideline with cash. I'll still be out 3 years worth of investing gains at that point but at least no lo...
by Bluce
Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

As I stated around March 22, the market was going to have a massive counter trend bear market rally and would top out around 2500-2700. That bear market rally happened and topped right around 2640. 2640 and thereabout represents the bull trend line going back to 2009 and several other events and tr...
by Bluce
Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478102

Re: This sure doesn't feel like a bull market but......

Bull market and bear market are nonsense terms. You are really asking "can stocks go up 20% in 2 weeks" - the answer is yes. Stocks are volatile. I agree. They only mean something after the fact, when seen in the rear view mirror when they can be officially categorized. Market prices are driven by ...
by Bluce
Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

He has kinda given up on it, but he is still a true believer (to this day) that aliens built the pyramids and Stonehenge, among other things, and that the two guys in England who admitted to making the first crop circles are liars; etc. etc. It's all the same mindset, apparently. :confused Well you...
by Bluce
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

LOL, making one correct call has the same chances of a coin landing on heads (or tails).

But of course, everybody on BH already knows that.
by Bluce
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

He has kinda given up on it, but he is still a true believer (to this day) that aliens built the pyramids and Stonehenge, among other things, and that the two guys in England who admitted to making the first crop circles are liars; etc. etc. It's all the same mindset, apparently. :confused Well you...
by Bluce
Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

After today's rally, it's pretty clear that a double-inverted Mandelbrot waving periodicity is developing, with frequency dictated by forex emerging market outflows and amplitude force-multiplied by commodity trading spreads, oil among them, and will undoubtedly cause a retracing of past volatility...
by Bluce
Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I think that today’s close was the bottom. 2,237 on the S&P. You heard it here first. Yer a brave man, ol' Stinky! :beer I took a screen shot of your post and saved it. It may come in handy later. On a completely unrelated note, do you happen to like crow sandwiches? :confused Well, it's been two w...
by Bluce
Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 296
Views: 22419

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

And thank for your your answer. As I’ve asked in earlier posts here, I was wondering if BH’s hold bonds so they can rebalance their portfolio periodically and capture some gains when the stock market is high and buy low when the stock market is down, without trying to time the market because rebala...
by Bluce
Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I think that today’s close was the bottom. 2,237 on the S&P. You heard it here first. Yer a brave man, ol' Stinky! :beer I took a screen shot of your post and saved it. It may come in handy later. On a completely unrelated note, do you happen to like crow sandwiches? :confused Well, it's been two w...
by Bluce
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478102

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

At 4:00 pm tomorrow, stocks will be higher (or lower) than they are now. Take it to the bank! :beer You're welcome. :sharebeer Not necessarily, if you are looking at the Sunday extended hours session prices. I just made 1% in 3 hours by buying and selling SH (inverse S&P500). But I was playing with...
by Bluce
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478102

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

At 4:00 pm tomorrow, stocks will be higher (or lower) than they are now.

Take it to the bank! :beer

You're welcome. :sharebeer
by Bluce
Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626184

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

As I stated around March 22, the market was going to have a massive counter trend bear market rally and would top out around 2500-2700. That bear market rally happened and topped right around 2640. 2640 and thereabout represents the bull trend line going back to 2009 and several other events and tr...
by Bluce
Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does market keep rallying at end of day?
Replies: 28
Views: 3082

Re: Why does market keep rallying at end of day?

Maybe this is a common occurrence but as I have been watching the market more closely the past 2 months, it seems like there have been a lot of "rallies" that happen in the last 15 minutes of the trading day - typically will happen on a Friday also it seems. This can be a real pain if trying to inv...
by Bluce
Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pop quiz: Treasurys vs CDs
Replies: 14
Views: 837

Re: Pop quiz: Treasurys vs CDs

To your question: Everything is topsy-turvy now, but a couple of years ago (as I recall) there was no meaningful difference in yield between a CD and T-Bill of the same duration. They are different now? Risk-wise, a brokered CD (can be sold any time and is FDIC insured) is essentially the same as a ...
by Bluce
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FDIC announces first bank failure since [but not because of] coronavirus crisis
Replies: 12
Views: 1910

Re: FDIC announces first bank failure of coronavirus crisis

It's been a mess for years: https://www.americanbanker.com/news/west-virginia-bank-is-first-to-fail-since-onset-of-coronavirus Could you summarize? I get a paywall “please subscribe to get full access” pop up. The meat: The FDIC said in a press release that the bank operated with “financial difficu...