Search found 267 matches

by mathguy3021
Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?
Replies: 35
Views: 2995

Re: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?

Based on your prior posts, may I respectfully suggest that the LAST thing you need is the ability to trade more often. You were ready to panic sell 3 weeks ago: Then the market bounced (DJIA up 11% on 3/24), just as you requested, but you didn't sell: Then you polled the forum to see who thought we...
by mathguy3021
Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?
Replies: 35
Views: 2995

Re: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?

.<--snip-->.... No one should take advice from non professional investors writing their opinions on this forum. ...<--snip--> Some of the best advice I have had is from non professional Bogleheads rather than professional investors that do not have my interests at heart. Ok. But I'm not giving advi...
by mathguy3021
Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?
Replies: 35
Views: 2995

Re: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?

My opinion is that this is a bear market rally and eventually stocks will come down. I've decided to sell 100% of stocks in my 401k next week. I know this looks like timing, but it is not. The reason for selling is to get out of Fidelity index funds and switch to ETFs after receiving a round-trip v...
by mathguy3021
Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FOMO Help - $1M to invest after avoiding all of the downturn
Replies: 58
Views: 6217

Re: FOMO Help - $1M to invest after avoiding all of the downturn

It looks like there are lots of market timers out there. I did not market time or try to market time. I only tried to adjust my AA to the appropriate level but Fidelity warned me for trying to adjust my AA so I will no longer use their funds. Nobody knows where the market will go over the short term...
by mathguy3021
Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?
Replies: 35
Views: 2995

Re: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?

by mathguy3021 » Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:23 am I know this looks like timing, but it is not. The reason for selling is to get out of Fidelity index funds and switch to ETFs after receiving a round-trip violation warning. If you're not trying to time the markets why are you running into round trip violat...
by mathguy3021
Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?
Replies: 35
Views: 2995

Re: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?

My opinion is that this is a bear market rally and eventually stocks will come down. I've decided to sell 100% of stocks in my 401k next week. I know this looks like timing, but it is not. The reason for selling is to get out of Fidelity index funds and switch to ETFs after receiving a round-trip v...
by mathguy3021
Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?
Replies: 35
Views: 2995

Re: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?

My opinion is that this is a bear market rally and eventually stocks will come down. I've decided to sell 100% of stocks in my 401k next week. I know this looks like timing, but it is not. The reason for selling is to get out of Fidelity index funds and switch to ETFs after receiving a round-trip v...
by mathguy3021
Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?
Replies: 35
Views: 2995

Re: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?

My opinion is that this is a bear market rally and eventually stocks will come down. I've decided to sell 100% of stocks in my 401k next week. I know this looks like timing, but it is not. The reason for selling is to get out of Fidelity index funds and switch to ETFs after receiving a round-trip v...
by mathguy3021
Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?
Replies: 35
Views: 2995

Re: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?

From a historical perspective, it would be unlikely that a major recession and bear market results in no bear market rally. Please correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think there has ever been a bear market associated with a recession, and no bear market rally and a V shaped stock recovery.
by mathguy3021
Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?
Replies: 35
Views: 2995

Re: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?

My opinion is that this is a bear market rally and eventually stocks will come down. I've decided to sell 100% of stocks in my 401k next week. I know this looks like timing, but it is not. The reason for selling is to get out of Fidelity index funds and switch to ETFs after receiving a round-trip vi...
by mathguy3021
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about switching to ETFs due to worries about hidden fees
Replies: 9
Views: 954

Fidelity Index Funds lack fee transparency

[Topics merged to keep the discussion together. -- Moderator oldcomputerguy] I have decided to sell all index funds that I own and switch to ETFs. I strongly recommend staying away from Fidelity index funds. My main reason is lack of fee transparency. The detailed prospectus on the index funds that...
by mathguy3021
Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about switching to ETFs due to worries about hidden fees
Replies: 9
Views: 954

Thinking about switching to ETFs due to worries about hidden fees

I've been recently thinking about switching from index funds to ETFs in my 401(k). I like the ability to trade ETFs during the day and dislike Fidelity's roundtrip trading rules with index funds. It makes rebalancing harder especially when there are dividends reinvested into the fund. I believe that...
by mathguy3021
Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks
Replies: 82
Views: 7968

Re: Potential bottom in stocks

[Thread merged into here, see below (Page 2). --admin LadyGeek] I have a feeling that we've seen the bottom in stocks. Should I buy more stocks to rebalance? This could be a quick V shaped rise so I don't want to miss it. I thought you gave up on trying to time the market.... I am not trying to tim...
by mathguy3021
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks
Replies: 82
Views: 7968

Re: Potential bottom in stocks

I have a feeling that we've seen the bottom in stocks. Should I buy more stocks to rebalance? This could be a quick V shaped rise so I don't want to miss it. You “have a feeling”? I’m not sure you should be investing based on feelings, OP. Sure the recovery could be V shaped. Or it could be U shape...
by mathguy3021
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks
Replies: 82
Views: 7968

Potential bottom in stocks

[Thread merged into here, see below (Page 2). --admin LadyGeek]

I have a feeling that we've seen the bottom in stocks. Should I buy more stocks to rebalance? This could be a quick V shaped rise so I don't want to miss it.
by mathguy3021
Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
Replies: 167
Views: 9900

Re: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?

Counting on being employed with a good income until 62 isn't a good idea. You could get sick, disabled, etc. Do you have disability insurance? 5-6% a year on a 40/60 portfolio is a very aggressive assumption in my opinion. I would say 4% nominal on that portfolio over 25 years. If I had a high inco...
by mathguy3021
Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
Replies: 167
Views: 9900

Re: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?

Counting on being employed with a good income until 62 isn't a good idea. You could get sick, disabled, etc. Do you have disability insurance? 5-6% a year on a 40/60 portfolio is a very aggressive assumption in my opinion. I would say 4% nominal on that portfolio over 25 years. If I had a high inco...
by mathguy3021
Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
Replies: 167
Views: 9900

Re: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?

Counting on being employed with a good income until 62 isn't a good idea. You could get sick, disabled, etc. Do you have disability insurance? 5-6% a year on a 40/60 portfolio is a very aggressive assumption in my opinion. I would say 4% nominal on that portfolio over 25 years. If I had a high inco...
by mathguy3021
Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
Replies: 167
Views: 9900

Re: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?

Going back to the quote that several have posted: “If you are a sensitive soul who can brook no paper losses, the solution is to get a grip, not to invest safely if that locks in running out of money when you’re old.” It sounds like the OP’s response to that is that he has a high enough savings rat...
by mathguy3021
Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opening an Account: Vanguard vs. Fidelity
Replies: 52
Views: 5740

Re: Opening an Account: Vanguard vs. Fidelity

I have used Vanguard before but moved all retirement accounts to Fidelity. I like Fidelity's website much more. Fidelity is better for ETF and stock investors. If you want Vanguard active funds or Vanguard index funds, choose Vanguard. Vanguard has lower cost money market funds, but I don't have muc...
by mathguy3021
Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Layered Emergency Fund
Replies: 30
Views: 2870

Re: Layered Emergency Fund

I use I bonds as a second layer after a high yield saving account.
by mathguy3021
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which fixed income Bond Fund would be best to use right now?
Replies: 42
Views: 3368

Re: Which fixed income Bond Fund would be best to use right now?

For long term money why not go with Total Bond, which is arguably the most diversified bond fund out there? Why complicate things and try to pick the right sector or time the bond market? You have a 3 fund portfolio, which calls for total market funds. Why would the bond portion be different? Thank...
by mathguy3021
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which fixed income Bond Fund would be best to use right now?
Replies: 42
Views: 3368

Re: Which fixed income Bond Fund would be best to use right now?

For long term money why not go with Total Bond, which is arguably the most diversified bond fund out there? Why complicate things and try to pick the right sector or time the bond market? You have a 3 fund portfolio, which calls for total market funds. Why would the bond portion be different? Thank...
by mathguy3021
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which fixed income Bond Fund would be best to use right now?
Replies: 42
Views: 3368

Re: Which fixed income Bond Fund would be best to use right now?

For long term money why not go with Total Bond, which is arguably the most diversified bond fund out there? Why complicate things and try to pick the right sector or time the bond market? You have a 3 fund portfolio, which calls for total market funds. Why would the bond portion be different? Thank...
by mathguy3021
Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which fixed income Bond Fund would be best to use right now?
Replies: 42
Views: 3368

Re: Which fixed income Bond Fund would be best to use right now?

VSBSX is similar but contains shorter duration bonds so it is even less sensitive to interest rate increases, but returns will be lower.
by mathguy3021
Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which fixed income Bond Fund would be best to use right now?
Replies: 42
Views: 3368

Re: Which fixed income Bond Fund would be best to use right now?

I recommend short term bond funds to mitigate interest rate sensitivity. I like Fidelity's short term treasury bond index fund, FUMBX, but this may be too conservative for most people. I prefer to stay very safe for the bond side of my portfolio. As you can see from the recent stock market crash, sh...
by mathguy3021
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks
Replies: 82
Views: 7968

Re: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks

I have never seen a bear market that recovers so quickly despite the future problems we are going to face due to the negative ramifications of the pandemic. I am wondering if I should rebalance and move money into stocks before this V shaped rebound continues or wait for a dip in this bear market. ...
by mathguy3021
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks
Replies: 82
Views: 7968

Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks

I would like to get a statistical count of how many bogleheads think that we are going to see a V shaped rebound in stocks. I strongly doubt that stocks will spike straight up from here given the shutdown of businesses, the lost jobs, and reduced earnings that we will see from the pandemic. I have n...
by mathguy3021
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity commission-free ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 879

Re: Fidelity commission-free ETF

I have nearly all my accounts with Fidelity and own many shares of ETFs. VTI and ITOT are very similar, but I prefer VTI for tax efficiency, liquidity, and minimum tracking error. In a taxable account, I prefer ETFs over mutual funds for the ability to tax lost harvest at a specific price during th...
by mathguy3021
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity commission-free ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 879

Re: Fidelity commission-free ETF

I have nearly all my accounts with Fidelity and own many shares of ETFs. VTI and ITOT are very similar, but I prefer VTI for tax efficiency, liquidity, and minimum tracking error. In a taxable account, I prefer ETFs over mutual funds for the ability to tax lost harvest at a specific price during the...
by mathguy3021
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you realized that you had too much in equities, sell now
Replies: 19
Views: 2490

Re: If you realized that you had too much in equities, sell now

I would say it's ok to lower your allocation if you are not comfortable. Yes you lock in losses but take the possibility of bigger losses off the table if things really get bad. I always think of my equity as having a chance to go to zero. Actually, at these levels, if I sell, I would lock in nearl...
by mathguy3021
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

It is not only taxes. It's the fact that this capital gain will preclude me from making regular Roth IRA contributions due to the boost in MAGI from the huge capital gain. I refuse to complicate the matter with the backdoor Roth IRA after already contributing normally for 2020. I have changed my min...
by mathguy3021
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Let me make one correction. I will be selling 100% in my retirement accounts, and tax loss harvesting the taxable account. I cannot afford the huge capital gains tax from selling all stocks in my taxable account since I'm sitting on huge gains after this crash. You cannot afford to pay tax on the &...
by mathguy3021
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Let me make one correction. I will be selling 100% in my retirement accounts, and tax loss harvesting the taxable account. I cannot afford the huge capital gains tax from selling all stocks in my taxable account since I'm sitting on huge gains after this crash. You cannot afford to pay tax on the &...
by mathguy3021
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

This could be the bottom. I will be holding. I will not sell stocks near the bottom.
by mathguy3021
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

I'm done wasting my time with useless advice and taking criticism for trying to preserve my hard earned savings. I don't care about achieving the highest future gains. It's not a guarantee that stocks will be higher 10 years from now. What I care about is surviving today and tomorrow as I have no on...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

[...] What I see today is very different from what I saw back in 2008. [...] You're right about that - I remember 2008. A total collapse of financial markets. Major financial houses with household names going out of business. Insurance industry collapsed. Thousands and thousands of foreclosures - p...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Even if I had the current net worth back then, I would be able to tolerate a 75/25 allocation. What I see today is very different from what I saw back in 2008. It's a different type of shock that can potentially be more devastating than 2008. I could be wrong, but I think this bear market will be t...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

My net worth has grown from under six figures in 2009 to over 7 figures earlier this year. I see. Do you believe that you've found that you'd want to hold more in bonds going forward? No. I didn't miscalculate my risk tolerance. I simply didn't expect a free fall in stocks of this magnitude in such...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Serious question for OP - why are you posting this? I have read many posts from you the last week saying the same thing and dismissing nearly all feedback. Just sell and move on. I didn't dismiss the feedback. I will only sell on a significant bounce. If there is no significant bounce, I will not s...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

I've decided to sell 100% of my stocks in all investment accounts to preserve 2016 gains, and to prevent an irrecoverable loss in hard earned savings. This goes against all the rules I've learned about investing, but this time is very different so the rules go out the window. Stocks will keep crash...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Preventing a life changing loss is FAR more important than big unecessary gains in the market. If I can live comfortably on my current net worth, but cannot afford to lose, I'll give up gains to be financially independent.
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

We have a long way to go before the bottom is reached. As I said before, I was prepared for a bear market, not a depression. This is not panic selling or capitulation. This is a well thought out decision to preserve gains. Most people didn't do as well as I did in the stock market so I am sitting on...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

I was prepared for a bear market. No you weren't. People thought the world was ending in 2008 too. I hope you find peace in your decision. This is very different from 2008. I was almost 100% in stocks through the 2008 financial crisis. If I had the same net worth back then, I would maintain my asse...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

I was prepared for a bear market. No you weren't. People thought the world was ending in 2008 too. I hope you find peace in your decision. This is very different from 2008. I was almost 100% in stocks through the 2008 financial crisis. If I had the same net worth back then, I would maintain my asse...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

I cannot wait until stocks are near zero. Do you really think all the stock in your mutual funds or ETFs will go bankrupt? Do you think even 1 will? (I’d believe 1 or 2, but not ALL of them.) I don't think the stocks will go bankrupt. The companies that I own are high quality companies, but the cur...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

A bear market bounce is a positive reaction to short term news that lifts stock prices temporarily. Investors who are short sighted will say that it's too late to sell because of the recent crash. The reality is that in my case, it's equivalent to moving to a much safer allocation after gains in 201...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22841

Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

I've decided to sell 100% of my stocks in all investment accounts to preserve 2016 gains, and to prevent an irrecoverable loss in hard earned savings. This goes against all the rules I've learned about investing, but this time is very different so the rules go out the window. Stocks will keep crashi...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Get out now or ride it out?
Replies: 85
Views: 7311

Re: Get out now or ride it out?

What I am seeing is not a bear market. This is a collapse in stock prices tied to an event that has no quick fix with no end in sight. The virus is not likely to peak for several months, and at this rate stocks will be near zero in a matter of weeks. I am calling a depression so why not prevent anot...
by mathguy3021
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 245
Views: 24732

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

Looks like stocks are set to crash this week again. My prediction of a great depression is now closer. I feel like selling all stocks on a technical bear market rebound. This might be the fastest 50% crash in history.