Search found 852 matches

by NoRoboGuy
Fri Apr 21, 2023 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The TSP’s G Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 6552

Re: The TSP’s G Fund

I am using 70% L Income (which is mostly G Fund), and 30% G Fund. In the event we get a sharp leg down in the stock market from here, I might increase exposure a bit in stocks, but don't really need to either way. The plan is to use up TSP by age 70 when deferred SS kicks in.
by NoRoboGuy
Mon Mar 27, 2023 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a CD a CD anymore?
Replies: 76
Views: 8908

Re: Is a CD a CD anymore?

A compact disc is still a compact disc, although digital files seem to be a growing trend in...oh, wait...do you mean certificates of deposit?? Yes, I think they are still a thing, too. :D
by NoRoboGuy
Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxation of Treasury bills, notes and bonds
Replies: 1027
Views: 149354

Re: Taxation of Treasury bills, notes and bonds

The tax code requiring this level of granularity is ridiculous for smallish transaction amounts.
by NoRoboGuy
Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasuries Today - What duration are you buying?
Replies: 128
Views: 22929

Re: Treasuries Today - What duration are you buying?

Currently, a nine month ladder with a maturity every month. I just purchased a 3 month at auction today. The plan is to expand the ladder to 12 months over the next few months.
by NoRoboGuy
Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62: How's It Going?
Replies: 130
Views: 19527

Re: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62: How's It Going?

My wife and I chose the strategy of delaying until age 70. We are both now 64. I was the higher earner, retired at age 56 and we both have COLA-based pensions, so taking SS before age 70 didn't make sense to us when we decided that. I am now 8 years into retirement. We still have more disposable income than we need by a large margin, and 401K/IRA assets are sufficient to bridge us to age 70 with a generous increase for inflation every year. We view delaying to be "old age insurance" and a cushion for a surviving spouse situation. It is not more complicated than that. So to answer the OP, it is going better than expected, even with a significant bear market (hopefully) winding down.
by NoRoboGuy
Fri Dec 23, 2022 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard still for me, warts and all
Replies: 111
Views: 14909

Re: Vanguard still for me, warts and all

JBVG wrote: Fri Dec 23, 2022 2:55 am For me, which I have not yet seen mentioned on this thread, is the important and unique structure of Vanguard itself. I do not know of another financial provider institution arranged in such a manner, and this defining feature tipped the scales for us many years ago as we entrusted Vanguard as stewards of our savings. This element keeps us firmly loyal today.

From the wiki:
"The new firm was established as a mutual organization with the mutual funds (and by extension, fund shareholders) owning the management company, which would provide services to the funds at cost and reduce conflicts of interest."
This is the one of the primary reasons for me...that and no-cost access to their mutual funds.
by NoRoboGuy
Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% Rule Just Became a Whole Lot Easier - Allan Roth
Replies: 409
Views: 76146

Re: The 4% Rule Just Became a Whole Lot Easier - Allan Roth

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:26 pm Are tips better than the current 4.6 percent on a one year treasury and 4.3 percent on a two year? Why or why not?
Maybe, maybe not. It depends on what rate you have to reinvest at in one or two years. TIPS ladders eliminate the interest rate risk for 30 years.
by NoRoboGuy
Thu Nov 03, 2022 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New I bonds not worth it; consider selling old ones at next reset
Replies: 251
Views: 57149

Re: New I bonds not worth it; consider selling old ones at next reset

This is an apples-to-oranges comparison. Each type has a different set of characteristics, ergo the buyer selects each based on their intended use.
by NoRoboGuy
Sat Oct 22, 2022 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate Bonds - what to look out for?
Replies: 4
Views: 697

Re: Corporate Bonds - what to look out for?

Would suggest a bond fund (like VCIT, current SEC yld: 5.84%, avg. duration 6.2 yrs) rather than individual bonds if you are considering corporates. No reason to take on individual-level default risk in the safe part of your portfolio. Take that risk on the equity side.
by NoRoboGuy
Mon Oct 17, 2022 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst. Bond. Market. Ever. [2023 update]
Replies: 253
Views: 50664

Re: 2022: Worst. Bond. Market. Ever? [June update]

Kevin M wrote: Sun Oct 16, 2022 4:08 pm
NoRoboGuy wrote: Sun Oct 16, 2022 3:40 pm TIPS are actually priced well right now, especially the 5 year up for auction next week.
Why do you think the 5-year is priced particularly well? You get about the same yield for shorter-term TIPS:

Image

Of course yields do decline at longer maturities, until you get to the 2040s, where they increase again out to 2046.

Image

Kevin
They are all priced well right now, but the 5 year is what is coming up for auction now.
by NoRoboGuy
Sun Oct 16, 2022 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst. Bond. Market. Ever. [2023 update]
Replies: 253
Views: 50664

Re: 2022: Worst. Bond. Market. Ever? [June update]

TIPS are actually priced well right now, especially the 5 year up for auction next week.
by NoRoboGuy
Mon Oct 10, 2022 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bear Market Musings"
Replies: 19
Views: 3050

Re: "Bear Market Musings"

Thanks, Taylor.

This part struck home:
There is no guarantee that buying stocks when they are down will lead to better outcomes, but history tells us that expected returns are higher when prices are lower. Wise investors don’t invest based on their fears about what might happen but rather on what’s most likely to happen.
by NoRoboGuy
Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks & Bonds BOTH Suffer Double-digit Real Losses, 1794-2021
Replies: 43
Views: 5514

Re: When Stocks & Bonds BOTH Suffer Double-digit Real Losses, 1794-2021

Here is an interesting FTSE September 2022 report on global bond returns, very comprehensive...

https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/d ... _usd_0.pdf
by NoRoboGuy
Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESG investing
Replies: 25
Views: 2183

Re: ESG investing

It seems rather odd to invest based on ESG. The market price (the net of buyer and seller transactions at a given time) determines the market value of a company. If one avoid companies with a low ESG score, exactly how does that change the valuation? Consider efficient market theory as an example. If the point of ESG is to "get ahead of the curve" of geopolitical changes relating to the three factors (environment, social, governance), how does that improve upon what is already being determined by market forces? This sound like nothing more than marketing. Blackrock, for example, holds over $100 billion in oil company investments (not part of its ESG funds). Are not the "bad" ESG stocks still owned and valued based on mar...
by NoRoboGuy
Mon Sep 05, 2022 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Is the Line Drawn for "Low Cost?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3097

Re: Where Is the Line Drawn for "Low Cost?"

It's subjective. When I first started paying attention, Vanguard 500 Index was something like 0.25%, while typical mainstream funds had expenses in 1% to 1.5% territory. Note well: what matters is the absolute difference, not the ratio. The difference between 1.25% and 0.25% is 1%, that really matters. The difference between 0.25% and 0.05% is only 0.20%, it matters much less. And the difference between 0.05% and 0.01% is only 0.04%, and matters even less. Morningstar categorizes mutual funds, but not, alas, ETFs, as having fees that are low, below average, average, above average, and high. I think they are far too kind but this, at any rate, is one source that is willing to commit to a judgement of fee level. Because the difference is so ...
by NoRoboGuy
Wed Aug 31, 2022 3:27 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: "Zoom" Bogleheads local chapter [Formerly Birmingham, Alabama]
Replies: 81
Views: 29487

Re: "Zoom" local chapter - based in Birmingham, Alabama

Anyone who lives in the greater Huntsville area may be interested to know we are planning to resume in-person meetings quarterly at the Madison Public Library, tentatively starting in October.

Please message me if you are interested in attending.
by NoRoboGuy
Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why valuations don't matter much
Replies: 142
Views: 10499

Re: Why valuations don't matter much

I disagree. TSLA sucks up all the best engineers from Silicon Valley. They are leading most companies today on technical innovation.
by NoRoboGuy
Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why valuations don't matter much
Replies: 142
Views: 10499

Re: Why valuations don't matter much

To be clear, there are TSLA investors (I am not one, other than in the TSM index) who value the company as more than its car sales. In particular, they point to robot development, as in the Jetson's Rosie the Robot.
by NoRoboGuy
Thu Aug 25, 2022 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why valuations don't matter much
Replies: 142
Views: 10499

Re: Why valuations don't matter much

Market valuation has two components, actual return (profits, dividends) and speculative return (the expected growth rate). Applies to both individual companies and indexes.
by NoRoboGuy
Mon Aug 22, 2022 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley/Wellington
Replies: 56
Views: 11454

Re: Wellesley/Wellington

homebuyer6426 wrote: Mon Aug 22, 2022 7:15 am What's the advantage of using these active funds compared to a few basic index funds with a lower expense ratio? Genuine question, because they seem to be well respected funds on this board.
None that I know of. That said, I hold some Wellington fund shares. Why? It is low expense and is managed conservatively, so there is an outside chance of outperforming (and of course, vice versa). So yeah there is no inherent advantage.
by NoRoboGuy
Mon Aug 15, 2022 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lumpy expenses and withdrawing from portfolio
Replies: 59
Views: 5182

Re: Lumpy expenses and withdrawing from portfolio

Broken Man 1999 wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 12:05 pm
Two major lumpy expenses that could strike any minute: replacing our vehicle ($75.000) and new roof ($12,000-$17,000).
I better check current car prices again. I may be under-budgeted!
by NoRoboGuy
Mon Aug 15, 2022 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lumpy expenses and withdrawing from portfolio
Replies: 59
Views: 5182

Re: Lumpy expenses and withdrawing from portfolio

I keep a spreadsheet with a section for lumpy expenses (car, roof, etc.). This "escrow" is funded with a fixed monthly amount.

While that amount is somewhat arbitrary, it is useful for maintaining a conservative measure of net worth and operating budget. When lumpy charges get incurred, the escrow balance is reduced accordingly. The escrow is of course in liquid accounts (cash, I-Bond, CD, etc.)
by NoRoboGuy
Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri view on Moneymarket
Replies: 23
Views: 3832

Re: Rick Ferri view on Moneymarket

I mention All About Asset Allocation here, and re-read parts of it quite often. I consider it a primary reference on the subject.
by NoRoboGuy
Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kotlikoff - Upside investing strategy
Replies: 66
Views: 7410

Re: Kotlikoff - Upside investing strategy

BitTooAggressive wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:01 am
Why not? He came across to me with his sales pitch just like the guys peddling annuities. They do that quite often when they pitch indexed annuities. Very dishonest.

Stock market risky oh no. Get the upside but not the downside…
Yep. Aaaaaand final judgment...... hokum.
by NoRoboGuy
Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kotlikoff - Upside investing strategy
Replies: 66
Views: 7410

Re: Kotlikoff - Upside investing strategy

The idea of preferring bonds over stocks when you have "won the game" is sound. The variable mostly ignored in these kinds of models is consideration of what is the legacy goal: spend it to zero, leave most to others/charity, or somewhere in-between.

If you have enough, it is obvious there is no need to take on stock market risk, but also obvious there is an ability to take on stock market risk without impacting one's chosen standard of living for the unused portion. If the goal is to spend it all down, choose the former, and if the goal is to bequest it, choose the latter.

It's not rocket surgery.
by NoRoboGuy
Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kotlikoff - Upside investing strategy
Replies: 66
Views: 7410

Re: Kotlikoff - Upside investing strategy

Who decided the standard for measuring long term stock market performance is 30 years? There is no consensus. If we are considering average annual return, it is calculated using any number of periods, but usually between 5 and 10 years, not 30.
by NoRoboGuy
Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kotlikoff - Upside investing strategy
Replies: 66
Views: 7410

Re: Kotlikoff - Upside investing strategy

But, you respond: The U.S. is not Japan. Over all 30-year periods from 1926 to the present, the U.S. stock market has yielded an annual return of at least 8 percent. My response: First, you need to adjust for inflation. Once you do so, the 8 percent minimum 30-year annual stock return is only 0.5 percent. Second, the U.S. data provide only three independent, 30-year cumulative-return data points. Studies that reference “all” 30-year periods are using the same annual return data over and over again. That’s not statistically kosher. Third, the U.S. stock data suffer from survivor bias. We don’t have data on stock returns from countries that didn’t survive the test of time or whose stock markets were closed during periods of occupation or reg...
by NoRoboGuy
Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)
Replies: 6651
Views: 1202142

Re: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)

Thanks for correcting me. States cannot tax Government bond instruments.
by NoRoboGuy
Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)
Replies: 6651
Views: 1202142

Re: Series I savngs bond (aka ibond) question

Flobes wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:06 pm Remember that that federal taxes on IBonds interest can be delayed for up to 30 years; you choose which year you want to pay the taxes. And IBond interest is free from state taxes. Meanwhile, taxes on dividends from money market are due year that are issued.
I Bond interest is not free from taxes in all states.
by NoRoboGuy
Sat Jul 30, 2022 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Current Rates On Bonds Telling Us Something?
Replies: 41
Views: 5795

Re: Are Current Rates On Bonds Telling Us Something?

There is conflicting data in the credit markets. On the one hand, the 2-10 yield curve inverted which is an indicator of recession. On the other hand, the high yield spread, a risk measure of corporate debt, is still near the average, which suggests not much of a slowdown. Ahead of (or concurrent with) recessions, the spread climbs to 7% or higher. Today it is 5%.

Here is a discussion on this very conflict: https://fsinvestments.com/fs-insights/c ... ndicators/
by NoRoboGuy
Wed Jul 20, 2022 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)
Replies: 6651
Views: 1202142

Re: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)

To be clear...If you login in one day after you purchase - let's say you bought on 7/19/2022 - it will say the "issue date" is 7/1/2022. On 8/1/2022, you have accrued one month of interest even if the bond is not technically one month old.

It also means that if you hold for the full 30 years, the effective maturity date is 6/30/2052.
by NoRoboGuy
Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellington fund
Replies: 66
Views: 20326

Re: Wellington fund

Using this along with a Vanguard target date fund (50/50) in the IRA. It is well run with low expenses for an actively managed fund. Turnover rate last year was 35%. Keep in mind Wellington's equity side under-performs whenever tech outperforms because of its conservative portfolio of stocks, and vice versa.
by NoRoboGuy
Sat Jul 16, 2022 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's book on sale for $2.99 on Kindle
Replies: 26
Views: 3939

Re: Jack's book on sale for $2.99 on Kindle

Thanks Rick for the heads up. Will definitely get a kindle copy tomorrow.
by NoRoboGuy
Sat Jul 16, 2022 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service Mega-thread
Replies: 1512
Views: 167367

Re: Vanguard Customer Service Mega-thread

That is what happened to me years ago with Schwab when I left them for Vanguard. The account was moved, but then a second transfer was done upon settlement of late dividends.
by NoRoboGuy
Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Would Jack Do? Ask Vanguard's Clients"
Replies: 11
Views: 2238

Re: "What Would Jack Do? Ask Vanguard's Clients"

The article, without even saying it, points to how much Jack's leadership and reputation means versus Vanguard today. How well would you say is Vanguard doing today on the question of: "Vanguard’s priority is to put investors first"? While not the only metric, let's consider their website, their "app" and their telephone customer service for people with less than $1 million in assets. How's that priority doing now? NoRoboGuy: According to the J.D. Power Company who measures such things, Vanguard is doing better than most: https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2021-us-self-directed-investor-satisfaction-study Best wishes Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I do not believe it is hyperbole to say that suc...
by NoRoboGuy
Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Would Jack Do? Ask Vanguard's Clients"
Replies: 11
Views: 2238

Re: "What Would Jack Do? Ask Vanguard's Clients"

The article, without even saying it, points to how much Jack's leadership and reputation means versus Vanguard today.

How well would you say is Vanguard doing today on the question of: "Vanguard’s priority is to put investors first"? While not the only metric, let's consider their website, their "app" and their telephone customer service for people with less than $1 million in assets. How's that priority doing now?
by NoRoboGuy
Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP G Fund rate 3.00% (Nov 2023)
Replies: 231
Views: 38125

Re: TSP G Fund rate 3.00% (June 2022)

The G fund has less expected returns than the other fund options. The G Fund has the same expected return as an Intermediate Treasury fund. Total Bond has about 35% corporate bonds, so has higher risk, with higher expected return. Long Treasury funds have higher risk. Short Treasury funds have lower risk. 2/3rds of Total Bond is in U.S. Govt, so that portion represents taking on uncompensated interest/duration risk relative to the G fund. SEC yield 3.41% versus G fund 3.00%. A much cleaner pairing without this uncompensated risk overlap with the G fund is an intermediate term corporate bond fund like VCIT SEC yield 4.77%. Which is my point. Holding the G fund allows other parts of the bond portfolio to take on more term and default risk, t...
by NoRoboGuy
Thu Jul 14, 2022 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP G Fund rate 3.00% (Nov 2023)
Replies: 231
Views: 38125

Re: TSP G Fund rate 3.00% (June 2022)

The G fund has less expected returns than the other fund options. The G Fund has the same expected return as an Intermediate Treasury fund. Total Bond has about 35% corporate bonds, so has higher risk, with higher expected return. Long Treasury funds have higher risk. Short Treasury funds have lower risk. 2/3rds of Total Bond is in U.S. Govt, so that portion represents taking on uncompensated interest/duration risk relative to the G fund. SEC yield 3.41% versus G fund 3.00%. A much cleaner pairing without this uncompensated risk overlap with the G fund is an intermediate term corporate bond fund like VCIT SEC yield 4.77%. Which is my point. Holding the G fund allows other parts of the bond portfolio to take on more term and default risk, t...
by NoRoboGuy
Tue Jul 12, 2022 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Winning the game and investing in Fixed Income
Replies: 272
Views: 37247

Re: Winning the game and investing in Fixed Income

I am surprised no one has brought up a buckets strategy if the goal is to have a simple way to manage fixed income after "winning the game". For example, something like:

Cash for one year
Bucket 1: Ladder of T-bills/CDs for next five years.
Bucket 2: Intermediate treasury index fund (or direct purchase) for next 10 years.
Bucket 3: Long term treasury index fund (or direct purchase) for remainder.
by NoRoboGuy
Sun Jul 10, 2022 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP G Fund rate 3.00% (Nov 2023)
Replies: 231
Views: 38125

Re: TSP G Fund rate 3.00% (June 2022)

The G Fund is a rare instance of a "free lunch" in that it provides a higher risk free return than comparable investments available to the general public.

The utility of the fund is it permits one to increase bond duration elsewhere, thereby increasing the overall risk-adjusted return of the bond portfolio.
by NoRoboGuy
Sat Jul 09, 2022 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Allan Roth -- Why stay at Vanguard?]
Replies: 116
Views: 11752

Re: Why stay at Vanguard?

The point Roth makes about trust is a good one. IIRC, Schwab had an issue with some of their bond/money market funds . Fidelity is said to rank high in customer service. It was for this reason I recommended them to a friend who was looking for a broker with good customer service as she was an ex-patriot. When she called Fidelity and specifically asked for one of their low fee funds, they essentially told her they could not do that (buy their OWN FUND) and instead tried to manipulate her into buying multiple high ER funds instead. I was surprised, to say the least. The point? Trust matters a lot. And Vanguard had an issue with their Target Date Funds. The most recently paid 6.25 million as part of settlement with Massachusetts’. What about ...
by NoRoboGuy
Sat Jul 09, 2022 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Allan Roth -- Why stay at Vanguard?]
Replies: 116
Views: 11752

Re: Why stay at Vanguard?

The point Roth makes about trust is a good one. IIRC, Schwab had an issue with some of their bond/money market funds . Fidelity is said to rank high in customer service. It was for this reason I recommended them to a friend who was looking for a broker with good customer service as she was an ex-patriot. When she called Fidelity and specifically asked for one of their low fee funds, they essentially told her they could not do that (buy their OWN FUND) and instead tried to manipulate her into buying multiple high ER funds instead. I was surprised, to say the least. The point? Trust matters a lot. And Vanguard had an issue with their Target Date Funds. The most recently paid 6.25 million as part of settlement with Massachusetts’. What about ...
by NoRoboGuy
Sat Jul 09, 2022 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Allan Roth -- Why stay at Vanguard?]
Replies: 116
Views: 11752

Re: Why stay at Vanguard?

Here is another reference to Schwab's bond problems in 2010.

https://www.investmentnews.com/sec-slap ... unds-24647
by NoRoboGuy
Sat Jul 09, 2022 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Allan Roth -- Why stay at Vanguard?]
Replies: 116
Views: 11752

Re: Why stay at Vanguard?

The point Roth makes about trust is a good one.

IIRC, Schwab had an issue with some of their bond/money market funds.

Fidelity is said to rank high in customer service. It was for this reason I recommended them to a friend who was looking for a broker with good customer service as she was an ex-patriot. When she called Fidelity and specifically asked for one of their low fee funds, they essentially told her they could not do that (buy their OWN FUND) and instead tried to manipulate her into buying multiple high ER funds instead. I was surprised, to say the least.

The point? Trust matters a lot.
by NoRoboGuy
Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Down, Dividends UP YTD
Replies: 252
Views: 16363

Re: Market Down, Dividends UP YTD

EarlyRetirementNow has a nice 3 part series on attempts to use yield to make things safer starting here https://earlyretirementnow.com/2019/02/13/yield-illusion-swr-series-part-29/ Whatever else you might say about ERN's conclusions, at least he is pretty clear about what he is saying/calculating/assuming. I often post this picture from that series because I feel it makes people think about what is being claimed about dividend focused investing strategies (as opposed to say total market strategies): https://i0.wp.com/earlyretirementnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/SWR-Part29-Chart01a-1.png?resize=863%2C575&ssl=1 If we are all agreeing on the right figure, dividend focused investing is just a preference. I think the arguments come whe...
by NoRoboGuy
Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "5 Things To Do During a Bear Market"
Replies: 37
Views: 5879

Re: "5 Things To Do During a Bear Market"

1. Take a nice morning walk.
2. Have a hot cup of coffee.
3. Take a nap.
4. Take a drive through the countryside.
5. Go to the park.
by NoRoboGuy
Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does more risk on the bond side payoff in the long run?
Replies: 29
Views: 2493

Re: does more risk on the bond side payoff in the long run?

euler wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:49 am
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:29 pm
euler wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:41 pm
NoRoboGuy wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:44 pm Take risk on the stock side. The primary role of bonds is ballast for stock volatility, not bond returns.
If this were true, you should use cash for ballast, not bonds.
cash loses value to inflation whereas over the long term bonds have beat inflation somewhat:
I didn't mean to pick on @NoRoboGuy, but the "bonds are for ballast not return" narrative irks me. As you say, bonds [hopefully] match or beat inflation in the long run whereas cash does not. (I had in mind the layperson's definition of cash, i.e. pieces of green paper or savings accounts.) That is a function of bond return. So, bonds are not merely for ballast.
Please read my post more carefully.
by NoRoboGuy
Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does more risk on the bond side payoff in the long run?
Replies: 29
Views: 2493

Re: does more risk on the bond side payoff in the long run?

euler wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:41 pm
NoRoboGuy wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:44 pm Take risk on the stock side. The primary role of bonds is ballast for stock volatility, not bond returns.
If this were true, you should use cash for ballast, not bonds.
Primary, not the only role.
by NoRoboGuy
Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does more risk on the bond side payoff in the long run?
Replies: 29
Views: 2493

Re: does more risk on the bond side payoff in the long run?

Portfolio7 wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:30 pm I can get higher returns with less standard deviation in my total portfolio by investing less in BND (or the Int Treasuries I prefer) and more in Equities... rather than trying to replace BND with junk and duration.

There's no reason to mess with junk bonds. I'm not aware of any situation where their use optimizes a portfolio.

Long term bonds can pair really well with a high equity percent, but I don't like their history. When they get slammed, it's devastating. Intermediate bonds have been more reliable for longer as an effective hedge to equities.

My 2 cents.
This makes sense.
Take risk on the stock side. The primary role of bonds is ballast for stock volatility, not bond returns.
by NoRoboGuy
Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP share price in Google Sheets like GoogleFinance
Replies: 112
Views: 34677

Re: TSP share price in Google Sheets like GoogleFinance

Apparently they are having issues. That page returns

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