Search found 4221 matches

by squirm
Thu Mar 17, 2022 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Office 365 for Word and maybe Powerpoint usage
Replies: 19
Views: 1991

Re: Office 365 for Word and maybe Powerpoint usage

Have you tried Office.com?
by squirm
Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla raises prices (thank you Elon!)
Replies: 118
Views: 12456

Re: Tesla raises prices (thank you Elon!)

why is this surprising or news? Car prices with everything else has gone up, haven't you noticed? If your competitors raise prices, generally that's an all clear you can too.
by squirm
Wed Mar 16, 2022 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Nice closing, looks sustained rally for now.
by squirm
Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

bigbadbuff wrote: Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:23 pm quarter of a point, as expected for months, and down come today's gains anyway...
CNBC Fed Survey: Respondents, on average, see a 33% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months.
by squirm
Wed Mar 16, 2022 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

4350 gap has been filled, as I stated above 4300 resistance is holding, we'll see about the close.
10 year crossed the 2.20 line.
4300 has proven tough resistance.
by squirm
Tue Mar 15, 2022 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Mar 15, 2022 2:42 pm
atdharris wrote: Tue Mar 15, 2022 2:41 pm Of course, I agree with that. But assuming we only see a 25 basis point hike as has been signaled, I wouldn't be surprised if we keep rallying. A 50 point hike will send us much lower I suspect.
I don't know, I think we'll go red tomorrow especially now that we're getting a nonsensical 2% day.

4300 and about is the resistance area.
by squirm
Tue Mar 15, 2022 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:59 am
Fortitude wrote: Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:52 am
atdharris wrote: Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:07 am I have this weird feeling in my gut that the market is going to rally once the first rate hike is announced.
I would tend to agree with you if the Fed raises it by 25 basis points confirming Powell’s guidance. If the vote ends up raising by 50 basis points out of the gate, the market would see that as a complete reversal and would most likely tank.
Don't forget that there are many factors impacting stocks, not just the Fed's interest rates, which have historically not been strongly correlated with stock performance.
Also when are they going to stop bond purchases. They purchased $4B of notes a week ago.
by squirm
Tue Mar 15, 2022 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

atdharris wrote: Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:07 am I have this weird feeling in my gut that the market is going to rally once the first rate hike is announced.
Sell the rumor, buy the news.
by squirm
Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Must admit...the almost daily drops are starting to make me cringe just a tad. 5 down weeks in a row and counting. The velocity of the drop isn't nearly March 2020 levels, but this has been unpleasant to watch playout. For some reason, I am having a more difficult time this drawdown than I did in 2020. And I squealed during the GFC and sold for a nice loss. :oops: Have not repeated that since nor will I. The close today was somewhat positive. The downward channel has to break first if you want any type of relief rally. The upper channel sits around, surprise surprise, 4300, which i stated long ago was the fight between the bears and bulls....that's the magic number. Fast downward sell offs are preferred if you're a bull because recovery is...
by squirm
Mon Mar 14, 2022 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

If it closes above last weeks closing low, that's a positive, iffy as of now.
by squirm
Mon Mar 14, 2022 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

peskypesky wrote: Mon Mar 14, 2022 2:03 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Mar 14, 2022 1:40 pm
atdharris wrote: Mon Mar 14, 2022 1:34 pm I'm still surprised at FB's freefall. It's trading at 12x earnings. It grew at 20% last quarter. Looks like the Nasdaq broke through 52 week lows now.
Why? People betting against the metaverse thing, meanwhile facebook.com continues to lose daily actives. I don't know how instagram is doing.
Yeah, that metaverse thing seems really dumb to me. Surprised Zuck went whole hog into it like that.
We've always told our kids since they were young to stay off social media. It's all a gimmick for marketers.
The whole change the name to meta was strange and made no sense.
by squirm
Mon Mar 14, 2022 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

fsrph wrote: Mon Mar 14, 2022 1:49 pm Stocks trending down and no flight to safety in bonds. Are bonds really a safe harbor at this point?

Francis
There is no safe place to go because that's what TINA was designed to do. It was assumed inflation wouldn't get out of control. Now everyone gets hit.
by squirm
Mon Mar 14, 2022 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Tom_T wrote: Mon Mar 14, 2022 1:19 pm
squirm wrote: Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:41 pm
gougou wrote: Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:31 pm I don’t understand why the market is still dropping when there’s peace talk happening between Russia and Ukraine. If they get some sort of peace that will eliminate the risk of escalation and stocks should rise.
Fed is tightening.
Not the reason. That's old news.

Much more likely: "Putin's troops relentlessly assaulted their democratic neighbor and diplomatic talks ended without a significant breakthrough" (CNN)
If the fed came out and stated their going dovish, the market would rip higher. The fed put is over.
by squirm
Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

AnalogKid22 wrote: Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:47 pm Meta (Facebook) now -45% YTD

Meme stocks: AMC, ARK, GameStop nearing -50% YTD
Lol! I forgot about the "meme stocks", i noticed Cathie Wood has gone radio silent lately.
by squirm
Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

AAPL now below it's 200dma.
JNK now below 100.
by squirm
Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

gougou wrote: Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:31 pm I don’t understand why the market is still dropping when there’s peace talk happening between Russia and Ukraine. If they get some sort of peace that will eliminate the risk of escalation and stocks should rise.
Fed is tightening.
by squirm
Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

atdharris wrote: Mon Mar 14, 2022 10:49 am I wonder if we hit a 52 week low in the Nasdaq this week - I'd put my money on yes
Nasdaq charts have been looking like crap for weeks. Very orderly decline within it's downward channel. Lots of air, although that's because everyone played the nasdaq casino during covid. 10500 is lots of resistance, but i would bet there will be a rip face short covering rally before.
by squirm
Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

AlphaLess wrote: Mon Mar 14, 2022 8:45 am Complete meltdown of the Treasury market this morning.
They called it a taper tantrum back in 2013.
by squirm
Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What percentage of home value do you save for repairs?
Replies: 49
Views: 4729

Re: What percentage of home value do you save for repairs?

I don't "save" anything for future repairs, if something comes up, we just pay it from savings. I would think most people do this.
by squirm
Sun Mar 13, 2022 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "You don't lose money until you sell"
Replies: 564
Views: 43339

Re: "You don't lose money until you sell"

trirunner wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 12:13 pm My god, the amount of mental gymnastics people on this forum try to convince themselves they haven't lost anything. Just accept you did, and it's a risk of stock ownership, and stay the course per you IPS.
Unbelievable isn't it.
by squirm
Sun Mar 13, 2022 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2003 vs 2007-2009 Which was worst?
Replies: 88
Views: 6507

Re: 2000-2003 vs 2007-2009 Which was worst?

Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Sat Mar 12, 2022 10:55 am 2008-2009 by far was the worst period. You are looking at the wrong metrics when comparing the two periods. It wasn’t just about the drawdown, what you are missing was just how close we came to going into an abyss from which there was no recovery. That is a complete worldwide collapse of the financial system, job losses while bad were on their way to catastrophic.
^^^This.
A lot of people don't understand how close the financial system came to a complete collapse along with life as we know it. It really was that close.
by squirm
Sun Mar 13, 2022 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not Real Estate instead of Stocks?
Replies: 210
Views: 26949

Re: Why not Real Estate instead of Stocks?

Dusn wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 3:07 pm I hear about the 1% rule for real estate a lot. But in what parts of the country do people find single-family homes that can rent for 1% of the home value? I've never seen, rented or owned a single-family home that could be rented for 1% of the cost of the home. (I've only lived on the East coast of the US).

Is the 1% rule for multi-family rentals or apartment buildings?
It only works in some areas. In other areas it can work if you happen to buy the property on the cheap. I
by squirm
Sun Mar 13, 2022 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "You don't lose money until you sell"
Replies: 564
Views: 43339

Re: "You don't lose money until you sell"

I don't agree with the statement. You lose money when your portfolio drops. Of course you do --- it is worth LESS money. The IRS doesn’t recognize your “loss” until you sell. I can't resist wondering.... The market crashes 50%, as does my total market index fund. I sell my total market fund, thereby taking a loss per IRS, and buy a S&P 500 mutual fund (same $$ amount as I had in the total market index fund, after the crash). The amount of money I have is the same as if I had not exchanged the total market fund for the S&P 500 fund* (or think other exchanges where the fund composition and expected return is quite similar between the funds I exchange from and to). By the "it's not a loss until I sell" mindset I have really ...
by squirm
Thu Mar 10, 2022 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

INDU and Nasdaq already crossed and the 200dma is rolling over. So it was inevitable it was going to cross on SPX. The name deathcross makes good media drama, but besides that, there are other conditions that warrant downturns... credit spreads are widening, HYG/JNK is rolling over, bank stocks making new 52 week lows, DXY is up 10% which is a major headwinds for S&P alone, etc etc. SPX, Nasdaq has well defined downward channels, couple that will lower highs and lower lows along with a large H&S pattern on SPX from last Sept and of course broken trendlines. I use 30 and150 week MA's.
All this point to that....it doesn't look good.
by squirm
Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "You don't lose money until you sell"
Replies: 564
Views: 43339

Re: "You don't lose money until you sell"

BitTooAggressive wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 5:48 pm I had my entire life savings in Russian stocks. But I am ok since I have not sold them yet. :confused
LOL!
by squirm
Thu Mar 10, 2022 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Stinky wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 5:19 pm
case_of_ennui wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 3:58 pm
A year ago I was holding something like a 15% allocation to Google (on top of what's already in VTI). I sold half of it last year and will likely sell some more this year for the same reason. Could be looking back on them and Amazon in 20 years like we look back on GE and others today.
Google and Amazon could be worse than GE at some time in the mid-term future (that is, later than 2025, but sooner than 2075).

Think of Sears. Or Montgomery Wards. Or K-Mart. Once-great retailers that are no more.
Ah yes, Sears. I remember when their stock ran up because they started selling appliances over the web, back in 98 or 99.
by squirm
Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

atdharris wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:26 am I wish I was smart enough to load up on inverse funds at close yesterday. It was so obvious we would resume free falling after inflation, but I know if I had bought inverse funds, we'd be soaring again today.
The fed put is over. Inflation is one thing, but expectations are also increasing. That's a totally different story.

You buy them at key ranges, such as when the right shoulder was forming, which was around 4500. The longer spx stays under the 200dma the more relevant and stronger the bear takes hold. Bear market rallys, shorts cover quick to lock on gains, that's why the rips are insane.

You can make money in down markets too, why fight the fed, right?
by squirm
Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:50 am
Silk McCue wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:48 am
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:44 am
H-Town wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:39 am See data that will linked above:
Actual data

Any questions?
No, just cherry-picking is what it is, if you could even call that underperformance.
How is it cherry picking. It is 18 years as you stated. You numbers above were wildly off.

Cheers
What numbers are you speaking of :confused S&P -13% YTD and BRK +6% YTD are not wildly off. I don't think you know what you're talking about.
Ytd means nothing in terms of tracking investor performance. If you want true investor performance then look at the long term, 5, 10, 15, etc years as was stated, i don't see that as cherry picking. That's when you capture market cycles and it sounds like ol' Warren can't beat the market average, so what good is his fund?
by squirm
Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "You don't lose money until you sell"
Replies: 564
Views: 43339

Re: "You don't lose money until you sell"

NiceUnparticularMan wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:15 am
squirm wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 8:34 am everyone counts the gains as real money. You can't have it both ways.
I mean, not everyone.

I literally do not track my gains. And I couldn't tell you the liquidation value of our portfolio on any given day. The only time I ever learn is when I rebalance (usually annually), and that is ONLY because I need to rebalance. Otherwise I really don't believe that number means anything.
Well said!
by squirm
Thu Mar 10, 2022 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "You don't lose money until you sell"
Replies: 564
Views: 43339

Re: "You don't lose money until you sell"

Let's all just be honest. It's just another way to lessen the pain when someone says they haven't lost money because they didn't sell. It's the opposite when there are gains... everyone counts the gains as real money. You can't have it both ways.
by squirm
Thu Mar 10, 2022 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

GP813 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 3:44 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 1:35 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 11:56 am
Buffett has lagged the S&P 500 since 2003. That's a long time to be behind.

He was great in the distant past, but he's been below average for the last 20 years.
He must be heavy ex-US. :twisted:
Berkshire was underweight tech for a long time, went through the housing crash/credit crisis(banks), and looks in a strong position now. He hasn't lagged the S&P 500 by much.
Being the "Oracle" of investing but getting below average returns is a major black eye, imo.
by squirm
Thu Mar 10, 2022 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Breaking news! Actual inflation 7.9% year over year. Consensus on inflation was 7.9% Consensus range was 7.4% to 8.0% CPI link Estimates courtesy of Jonathan Ferro on Twitter: -Pictet 8.1% -JPMorgan 8% -Morgan Stanley 8% -Nomura 8% -Barclays 7.9% -BofA 7.9% -HSBC 7.9% -Unicredit 7.9% -BNP Paribas 7.8% -Citi 7.8% -Goldman Sachs 7.8% -Wells Fargo 7.8% -SocGen 7.7% Twitter link The fed needs to STOP buying bonds. Their ops just purchased $6B in short term treas and MBS, this is insane. They need to get the 10 year up to about two and half, that will sink equities. Once equities sink, inflation will be much more under control as everyone looks at their equity portfolio and it's wrecked, so they lessen discretionary spending based off that. The...
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 5:34 pm
newyorker wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 5:30 pm Still DCAing? Man it feels like burning money.
Yeah. The problem is, S&P PE is still pretty high at 24x. I wouldn't be surprised if we crash below 20x.

We're a week away from the FOMC too, where the first hike is widely anticipated.

What's funny is the fed is still buying bonds. In fact, they're buy $4B short term Treasuries and $2B MBS in their open mkt ops tomorrow. Gotta keep that yield curve from inverting, LOL.
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Beensabu wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 5:01 pm
squirm wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:51 pm Inflation expectations are harder to contain then inflation itself. This is one area where the fed really screwed up pulled it off beautifully they let inflation ride, now everyone expects it .
They actually did it. There's a proud Krugman out there, smiling fondly upon the Fed.
The fed had a major policy shift back in 2020. The policy was to let inflation run above they're 2% targiet and average it out along with changes in employment targeting. Looks like it was a colossal failure.
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

rockstar wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:22 pm
squirm wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:49 pm
atdharris wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:30 pm The Russian conflict certainly will not help us with our inflation problem with gas spiking to record highs
The spike in oil wasn't a problem back in 2008, in fact it was more expensive back then on a constant dollar basis, so why all of sudden is it a problem now?
Because everything else also costs more. Think groceries and clothes and new/used vehicles and appliances. And equities weren't expensive in 2008.
Equities were very expensive in 2008 on a p/e multiple. In fact one of the highest.
The fed is mainly concerned with the PCE, oil shocks don't register unless it's longer term. All this talk about $5 gas is noise.
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Welcome back to another 'quicksand' close...brought to you by whatever cause you want to attribute it to. It really is all about the close. Intra day moves are meaningless, besides the open. The open was pathetic. If you're looking for a reversal day, look for strong down open, then you have better odds at a intra day reversal with a green close. Well that was a roller coaster of a day. Don't you remember the good old days when futures were an actual indicator of how the market day would go? I'm sick of the volatility. I feel like I get punished if I don't buy at the right time of the day. If you want to market time during the day, you might want to look at short term 15 minute charts. If not, then dollar cost average. Not everyone is goin...
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Visitor76 wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:13 pm
squirm wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:54 pm
veggivet wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:50 pm Welcome back to another 'quicksand' close...brought to you by whatever cause you want to attribute it to.
It really is all about the close. Intra day moves are meaningless, besides the open. The open was pathetic. If you're looking for a reversal day, look for strong down open, then you have better odds at a intra day reversal with a green close.
Well that was a roller coaster of a day. Don't you remember the good old days when futures were an actual indicator of how the market day would go?
I do remember those days, but let's be honest, the volatility isn't any different now then decades ago. In fact, looking at long term daily charts going back to the 70's I don't see hardly any change.
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

veggivet wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:50 pm Welcome back to another 'quicksand' close...brought to you by whatever cause you want to attribute it to.
It really is all about the close. Intra day moves are meaningless, besides the open. The open was pathetic. If you're looking for a reversal day, look for strong down open, then you have better odds at a intra day reversal with a green close.
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

And strap in for Thursday's CPI number. I don't think it's going to be pretty. I predict it's going to be an okay report. (Shhh...see, I've now covertly guaranteed one of us will be correct. If you win, I'll celebrate vicariously through you, and I invite you to do the same through me.) If I'm right, all celebrations are cancelled due to rising costs. :) We are bogleheads, we always knew there would be inflation someday and have planned accordingly. Party like it's 1983. Speaking of inflation... Longer-term inflation expectations are surging to the highest in data going back to 1998, with 10-year breakeven rates climbing to nearly 2.9%. Twitter link Inflation expectations are harder to contain then inflation itself. This is one area where ...
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

atdharris wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:30 pm The Russian conflict certainly will not help us with our inflation problem with gas spiking to record highs
The spike in oil wasn't a problem back in 2008, in fact it was more expensive back then on a constant dollar basis, so why all of sudden is it a problem now?
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Weekly fib touched, so you had rip off that.
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

IslandTime wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 11:09 am During turmoil is the best time to read Bogleheads. I always come here when the market is tanking. Lots of good wisdom from people who have been though many cycles and booms/busts. It's not nearly as interesting to read BH when everything is just going up, up, up and its all sunshine and unicorns for eternity.
It's nice to see the indexes popping up now, however imo, you always have to have the proper asset allocation.
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

corn18 wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 10:37 am
atdharris wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 10:35 am
squirm wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 10:29 am
atdharris wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:36 am Well, we should be at a 52 week low in the Nasdaq later on this week. Almost there now
Death cross happens this week in spx. The nasdaq has been under it's 200 dma for quite some time, the longer it stays under it, the more relevant that becomes. Lots of damage in the nasdaq, is now percolating to the other major indexes.
At the rate we're falling, we could break through 52 week lows tomorrow. The Nasdaq must be close to a bear market
According to my math, the NASDAQ is down 21.49% right now.
Right, and the big generals still haven't been taken out to the woodshed.
It seems longer term 10,500 is a magnet for nasdaq.
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

atdharris wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 10:35 am
squirm wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 10:29 am
atdharris wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:36 am Well, we should be at a 52 week low in the Nasdaq later on this week. Almost there now
Death cross happens this week in spx. The nasdaq has been under it's 200 dma for quite some time, the longer it stays under it, the more relevant that becomes. Lots of damage in the nasdaq, is now percolating to the other major indexes.
At the rate we're falling, we could break through 52 week lows tomorrow. The Nasdaq must be close to a bear market
It was a terrible close yesterday, and the open today sure didn't help.
Bear markets are just that, lower lows and lower highs.
4300 is now history. Maybe a rally later on the month to close the quarter.
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Sorry about harping on about this, everyone. It's just that, I still can't wrap my head around the idea changes in market value means gaining or losing *money*. But maybe I just need to regard myself mentally defective on this and move on. Honestly I agree with you that what I own are assets, which can potentially be converted to dollars by selling. While I understand how taxes work, I personally don't necessarily see a benefit to anchoring the value of my assets to a previous point in time, especially if that was a higher value. It just seems like a thought pattern to set yourself up for disappointment if market prices fall, and with risk assets prices can fall. Personally I think the stock market has been overvalued for some time, possib...
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

atdharris wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:36 am Well, we should be at a 52 week low in the Nasdaq later on this week. Almost there now
Death cross happens this week in spx. The nasdaq has been under it's 200 dma for quite some time, the longer it stays under it, the more relevant that becomes. Lots of damage in the nasdaq, is now percolating to the other major indexes.
by squirm
Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Jim180 wrote: Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:46 pm I view this as a typical mid-term election year correction. They always seem to happen. If the excuse were not inflation or Ukraine the market would have some other reason for a correction. Usually when markets fall quickly they come back quickly as in 2020. It's the long, slow 1-2 year declines that take a while to recover.
No, the reason for the downturn on the equity market started last September. The Nasdaq peaked. The Nasdaq lead during the melt-up, therefore it was going to lead on the way down. This all started because the early money knew the fed was beginning their tightening campaign.
by squirm
Mon Mar 07, 2022 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

mptfan wrote: Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:34 pm S&P 500 one year ago: 3821
S&P 500 today: 4201

Nothing to see here, move along.
There's a lot to see here, 4300 was the turf between the bulls and bears, i mentioned that a while ago. Since September, spx crossed 4300 thirteen times, seventeen of you include 20 points plus minus.

This seems to conclude the huge head and shoulders for spx, a reversal pattern, that started to develop last September.

In my opinion, the odds are a lot higher now for declining prices for SPY.
by squirm
Mon Mar 07, 2022 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Mon Mar 07, 2022 5:01 pm There is a lot of negative sentiment right now, I expect every rally to get sold off. When we hit peak negativity maybe it’ll finally bottom.
One way to do that is to look at the bull/bear 52 week moving average. According to investors intelligence, it's not even close to 1, where it was in 2009, actually it was about 0.9.
by squirm
Mon Mar 07, 2022 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652126

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:29 pm in 2000, we had 36 months of declines so we may just be getting started here. I wonder what the sentiment was in early 2001... buy the dip??
the buy the dip mentality was in full force because that's what everyone did in the 90's, under the Greenspan fed. Many of them wanted to juice up their returns even more so they bought into the nasdaq's ascent, only to get wiped out and swear off stocks.