Thank you for doing this every year!
Jeff
Search found 116 matches
- Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:16 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: TIPS OID for 2011 through 2023
- Replies: 27
- Views: 6473
- Wed May 17, 2017 7:29 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: TIPS Roll Return .6%?
- Replies: 3
- Views: 896
Re: TIPS Roll Return .6%?
I calculate this roll return on my own tips investments (I maintain a sort of 7-10 year TIPS ladder that I continually roll into the new 10 year) and currently, my own calculated yield bump from rolling down the yield curve is about 0.5%, so yes, 0.6% sounds reasonable.
BTW, I simplify (or make a lot of assumptions) in calculating this rate. It's not particularly easy to do, and the actual value has varied somewhat, though not a lot, in the three or four years in which I've been doing it.
Jeff
BTW, I simplify (or make a lot of assumptions) in calculating this rate. It's not particularly easy to do, and the actual value has varied somewhat, though not a lot, in the three or four years in which I've been doing it.
Jeff
- Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:31 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Social Security Consulting?
- Replies: 26
- Views: 4222
Re: Social Security Consulting?
We are in somewhat the same boat: retired in our mid 50s, with substantial pre-tax IRA balances to (eventually) convert and decent SS that will kick in at age 70. As our investments are substantially indexed, we are also in the envious position of being able to capitalize on the ACA tax rebates, as I am able to manage our income to below $62K at least every other year. So, I'd say that our situation is comparable to that of the original poster. I have done extensive modeling on our future tax burden, including IRA conversions, ACA rebates, and expected capital gains taxes that we will eventually have to take in order to live off of our investments. If you do not have the ACA subsidy issue, and you intend on spending all of your money rather...
- Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:36 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Callable municipal bonds
- Replies: 6
- Views: 851
Re: Callable municipal bonds
Thanks guys. Special thanks to BigJohn for his experience.
- Mon Aug 25, 2014 1:01 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Callable municipal bonds
- Replies: 6
- Views: 851
Callable municipal bonds
Greetings all! I have a few municipal bonds in my portfolio. They were all issued before the credit crisis, and were, at the time, of longish term. Beginning in 2016, most of them become callable over the subsequent couple of years. Generally, they have coupons of 4%-5%, so they clearly pay above market. When they become callable, some of them will have only 2 years remaining, some 3 or 4 years remaining, and one long term one, 15 years remaining. They are all from various California issuers, and they are all part of a typical issuance structure, with issues spread amongst a number of yearly maturities, so while my one issue may only have $500,000 of bonds outstanding, there may be $5,000,000 of callable bonds spread amongst 10 different ma...
- Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:18 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bond mutual fund vs individual bonds
- Replies: 35
- Views: 8295
Re: Bond mutual fund vs individual bonds
The financial definition of "risk" is the chance that an actual return will be different than an expected return.
If your horizon is exactly ten years, and you purchase a ten year, zero coupon bond (or zero coupon TIPS bond, if you care about inflation) then by definition, your risk is zero, because you know now, at this very minute, when you purchase that bond, what your return will be over the next ten years.
If instead, you keep your money is cash, there is risk because your return may be different than what you might currently expect it to be over the next ten years.
If your horizon is exactly ten years, and you purchase a ten year, zero coupon bond (or zero coupon TIPS bond, if you care about inflation) then by definition, your risk is zero, because you know now, at this very minute, when you purchase that bond, what your return will be over the next ten years.
If instead, you keep your money is cash, there is risk because your return may be different than what you might currently expect it to be over the next ten years.
- Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:55 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: In retirement, best to have all rIRA or both rIRA and tIRA?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 2112
Re: In retirement, best to have all rIRA or both rIRA and tI
Estimating taxes in retirement is more difficult than might be anticipated because of (federal only!) taxation of social security benefits. One's income (employment income versus social security income) may very well go down by a good margin, but one's marginal tax rate...? Maybe not so much, especially if two spouses are to receive benefits, or there's some taxable savings that throw off additional income.
- Sat Feb 09, 2013 10:20 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Best of Bad 401k options
- Replies: 3
- Views: 1385
Re: Best of Bad 401k options
You have a good stock fund, a good bond fund, and a 3% match. Sounds quite good to me.
- Mon Oct 08, 2012 1:09 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Anyone else track their overall fees?
- Replies: 25
- Views: 1839
Re: Anyone else track their overall fees?
Rather than tracking fees as a percentage of assets, it is much more enlightening to track fees as a percentage of expected returns, or, if you are currently withdrawing some "safe" (or other) percentage of your portfolio, as a percentage of those withdrawals. That is when the 0.6% expense for DLS or DGS or other off-the-beaten-path funds really stick out.
Jeff
Jeff
- Fri May 25, 2012 7:42 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Fidelity Spartan Inflation Protected Bond Index
- Replies: 31
- Views: 9759
Re: Fidelity Spartan Inflation Protected Bond Index
That TIPS issue is always mispriced - at least compared to where it should be - because it's the last TIPS issue until you get to 2040, and there's relatively little on the near side either. We happen to own quite a bit of it because it's the year in which we expect to purchase an SPIA, but the yield on it is always low and the price is always high.
If one were running a mutual fund that was able to somehow match durations while eliminating that single issue, it would seem that that strategy would juice your yields some.
Jeff
If one were running a mutual fund that was able to somehow match durations while eliminating that single issue, it would seem that that strategy would juice your yields some.
Jeff
- Mon Apr 30, 2012 1:06 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Poll] My philosophy on SPIAs
- Replies: 65
- Views: 5348
Re: [Poll] My philosophy on SPIAs
I think that the annuity decision is inherently quantitative and cannot reasonably be treated by comparing advantages with disadvantages. How much does it cost, and how much can you expect to get back? An SPIA is insurance, just like homeowner's insurance. Most people don't ask how much they "expect to get back" from their homeowner's insurance because the answer is simply not known. The analysis of whether or not to get an SPIA is 100% qualitative, not quantitative, because most people don't know exactly how long they are going to live, and a random variable with only one instance - the age of your death - is not a useful expression of risk that can be mitigated by other means. If you are going to go broke if you are 80 and you ...
- Mon Apr 09, 2012 1:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve returns?
- Replies: 696
- Views: 140707
Re: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve retu
I could not access the paper either, so not of much use to me.
- Tue Apr 03, 2012 11:56 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Will TIPS really protect you if inflation takes off?
- Replies: 62
- Views: 9733
Re: Will TIPS really protect you if inflation takes off?
The problem - the big problem - that I have with this discussion is that it proceeds from the premise that the price of the investment is what matters - that is, do TIPS prices track some measure of inflation, or don't they? I do not believe that that question is the correct question to be asking. The correct question doesn't relate to the value of your portfolio, it relates to what your portfolio can do for you, now or when you retire, or for your heirs if you so choose, when you die. If your goal is not the value of your portfolio now but rather the number of vacations that your portfolio will enable you to take in the future, or the number of meals your portfolio will allow you to eat in the future, the value of holding real inflation pr...
- Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:28 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Will TIPS really protect you if inflation takes off?
- Replies: 62
- Views: 9733
Re: Will TIPS really protect you if inflation takes off?
You just can't make this stuff up!NERD777 wrote:This is the easiest question ever asked on this forum. NO.
If rampant inflation were to take place one of two things would happen. TIPS would be defaulted upon, and if they weren't you would be paid in worthless currency. People who believe TIPS are the investment to hedge against inflation will be severely disappointed when and if this scenario arises.
- Thu Mar 29, 2012 6:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Counting SS in AA
- Replies: 11
- Views: 1071
Re: Counting SS in AA
The problem is not the usage of Social Security as part of an asset allocation, the problem is planning retirement based on an asset allocation rather than something more concrete. IMHO.
- Thu Mar 29, 2012 3:49 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: "How Much Should Retirees Stake in TIPS?"
- Replies: 7
- Views: 1630
Re: "How Much Should Retirees Stake in TIPS?"
I think that she loses all of her credibility when she states that the "aggressive" portfolio of a new retiree contains (only) 33% fixed income.
- Wed Mar 28, 2012 11:05 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Stable Value Fund vs. Total Bond Index Fund for 401K
- Replies: 27
- Views: 3388
Re: Stable Value Fund vs. Total Bond Index Fund for 401K
It is difficult to believe that anyone thinks stable value funds are for real, that they offer a free lunch. My guess would be that they manage risk to achieve a particular return, and that they are stable until they are not. Come on, people!
- Tue Mar 13, 2012 6:38 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Social Security Earnings History
- Replies: 4
- Views: 908
Social Security Earnings History
Suppose that one stops working at 50, and the Social Security website says that, assuming no future income, he'll have a monthly payment of $2000 when he's 70. In five years, after five years of no income but with 5 years of inflation totalling (say) 15%, will the 70-year payout be $2000, or $2300?
Thanks,
Jeff
Thanks,
Jeff
- Sun Feb 26, 2012 11:07 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Monthly TIPS update for those interested
- Replies: 41
- Views: 4648
Re: Monthly TIPS update for those interested
I'm no slouch at the bond market, but I have to say that I couldn't get through the article. Too technical, too much jargon, too many facts, and not easy to follow from A to B. Who understands all of that, other than quants other than me?
- Wed Feb 15, 2012 9:53 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Dividend Taxation Effects on Tax-Efficient Fund Placement
- Replies: 62
- Views: 4711
Re: Dividend Taxation Effects on Tax-Efficient Fund Placemen
Now once you have determined your annualized effective tax rate for your personal situation, which is no easy task, you determine which asset is more efficient by multiplying the effective annualized tax rate by the estimated annual pre-tax return on the asset. The greater number should go in the tax preferred account. We can quickly rule that strategy out, by using a simple example to show that it is wrong. You have pointed out the historically low interest rates. OK, let's assume interest rates are zero. That means you owe zero tax on bonds. So this would drive you to put equities in tax-deferred (401k or IRA) and bonds in taxable. But if your only decision is where to put equities (since bonds aren't taxed), the decision to put them in ...
- Tue Feb 14, 2012 5:57 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Talk to me like I'm stupid: REIT's in a taxable
- Replies: 16
- Views: 3491
Re: Talk to me like I'm stupid: REIT's in a taxable
I have written many posts on this. Something can always be identified as a disadvantage for any tax strategy. I have REITs in both a taxable and tax advantage account and it is no problem. I have written numerous times before that I have both clients and friends who have retired early and are presently living off of REITs dividends (i.e. the actual dividend and capital gains, not return of capital for any technical folks). I also have clients that own substantial real estate that is fully depreciated resulting in considerable taxable income at ordinary income rates. What happens if the REITs are only in tax advantaged, one retires and begins distributions, oh no....the gains will be taxed at ordinary income rates. What this says to me is t...
- Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:12 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 30 year TIPs auction- real yield of 0.8%???
- Replies: 52
- Views: 5508
Re: 30 year TIPs auction- real yield of 0.8%???
I am also in quite a bit - the rate is what the rate is.
Jeff
Jeff
- Sun Feb 12, 2012 7:14 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Rates on Annuities
- Replies: 70
- Views: 15621
Re: Rates on Annuities
The notion of "waiting to purchase" until rates go up is nothing if not market timing. I am (frankly) amazed that people think that there's a free lunch here - that only if the purchaser "waits a while," the deal will be better. For a 70 year old, how long is too long to wait? What if rates continue to go down for the next year rather than up - what then? And what about the fact that if rates do indeed go up, the fixed income portion of the portfolio will be worth correspondingly less, and as a result, you may be able to only puchase 90% of what you were able to purchase today, when rates were lower? We do have large, fixed income allocations, right? All portfolios with fixed income components have benefitted, more or le...
- Sat Feb 11, 2012 12:22 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Rates on Annuities
- Replies: 70
- Views: 15621
Re: Rates on Annuities
I agree with Dick Purcell on this, that a low interest rate environment is the best time to purchase an SPIA. I also noticed that in Bob90245's original graph, the Y axes do not scale to zero together. I'd also imagine that for different ages (70 instead of 65, for example), the axis mismatch is more pronounced. What this says to me is that the SPIA payout is composed of a part that relates to mortality, and a part that relates to interest rates. As interest rates decrease to zero for example, the percentage of the payout that is based on mortality goes up, while the percentage of the payout that is based on interest rates goes down, making it easier to purchase the mortality part. Our investments already have the "low interest rate&qu...
- Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:28 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What's the Use of Wond'rin'?
- Replies: 7
- Views: 1405
Re: What's the Use of Wond'rin'?
Very nice.
- Fri Feb 03, 2012 11:52 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How much did you lose due to rollovers ?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 3398
Re: How much did you lose due to rollovers ?
I liquidated the stock funds in the old 401k, bought stock in the rollover Ira with cash that was just sitting around, and the had the cash part of our AA (and part of the bond allocation, admittedly) tied up in th check. So we were on target with the stock allocation, but light on the bond allocation.
- Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:39 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Further Diversification?
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1137
Re: Further Diversification?
That is a $60,000,000 asset allocation, with $10,000,000 in 50/50 stocks/bonds, $100,000,000 in real estate, and ($50,000,000) in the mortgage Perhaps a more realistic example would be Joe Schmoe, who has $400,000 in 50/50 stocks/bonds and a $300,000 mortgage on a $400,000 home. That would be $200,000 in stocks, $200,000 in bonds, $400,000 in real estate, and ($300,000) in the mortgage, for a total net worth of $500,000. If the stock market were to decline by 50% and home prices fall by 30%, Joes' net worth would be $100,000 in stocks, $200,000 in bonds, $280,000 in real estate, and ($300,000) in the mortgage, for a total net worth of $280,000, or a decline of 48%. That is a lot of decline when Joe was expecting to be more balanced, with on...
- Thu Jan 26, 2012 12:20 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Further Diversification?
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1137
Re: Further Diversification?
Unless you believe that the bond portion of your portfolio is going to pay 6.5%, it'd probably be wise to pay down the mortgage on the rental. (Unless you may give it back to the bank, that is.)
And while the mortgage is outstanding, it should be counted as a negative bond in your asset allocation.
Jeff
And while the mortgage is outstanding, it should be counted as a negative bond in your asset allocation.
Jeff
- Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:12 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: why not TIPS??
- Replies: 77
- Views: 7695
Re: why not TIPS??
There is an inflation premium and a liquidity premium, and they work in opposite directions. If you think that you believe that there's no inflation premium based on the fact that the real TIPS yield is equal to the nominal treasury yield minus your expected rate of inflation, what you really believe is that the inflation premium is equal to the liquidity premium.
Jeff
Jeff
- Fri Jan 06, 2012 12:13 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
- Replies: 41
- Views: 2420
Re: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
mslaw: Yes, I have bought and sold both TIPS and regular treasuries via Fidelity. I maintain my own limited "ladders" in each. Doc: I really believe that Fidelty DOES not publish <0 rates, versus CAN not publish those rates. This has been explained to me twice; they do not want to be in the position of "offering" bonds at less than zero real yields. By requiring the phone call, they make the case that the investor wanted the bonds. (Witness the muni reset debacle of a few years ago...) ftobin: You are welcome to believe what you want, but I'd posit that it is necessarily improper for you to ascribe "best bets" to others based on only your limited knowledge of their (our) situations. You have no idea what others...
- Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:00 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
- Replies: 41
- Views: 2420
Re: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
Skill and patience are required here. I have, in the past, generally made a "first go" at an order (again, with Fidelity) about 1/3 of the way from, say, bid to offer, thereby reducing the spread by about 65%. Often, it works, and the order is accepted - sometimes quickly, sometimes after 5 minutes, and occasionally longer. If the order sits out there for too long, I'll try to cancel it, which often works, but sometimes seems to force fulfillment, which is also fine. Since I can't see what's going on in those 5-10 minutes, it's hard to know what to "really" think about it, but at 1/3 of the way in, I'm not too concerned. Cancelling - or attempting to cancel - orders shows that you're not willing to wait around to be span...
- Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
- Replies: 41
- Views: 2420
Re: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
4/32 compares well with what I saw at Fidelity, even when the spreads were online, as I was seeing 2-3 times that number. On the long end, the spreads were always higher than at the short end. Yesterday, the spreads on the long TIPS were a full point at Fidelity, twice what you were quoted at Vanguard. That said, I always had luck at Fidelity placing my limit order at 1/4-1/3 of the way in, which effectively halves the spread. Perhaps Fidelity's online quotes are for sheep.
Jeff
Jeff
- Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:42 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
- Replies: 41
- Views: 2420
Re: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
I definitely feel your pain. Determining the reasonableness of prices is a big deal now, though in fairness, I have only ever used the quoted prices on Fidelity.com, and not compared them to other sources. (I always assumed that the spreads enforced reasonableness, and in my buying and selling, I've never found the spreads to be skewed one way or another.) When I traded via a human the last time, I did some prep work that involved: Getting the close on the bond from the previous day, and then estimating the change on trade day using either a proxy ETF - either STPZ (1-5 year) or LTPZ (15+ year). (You can also use the day's yield change on the shortest "quoted" issue to check all of this.) From the price change and the duration of ...
- Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:33 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
- Replies: 41
- Views: 2420
Re: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
I'm not sure that the book is particularly relevant. When I execute a TIPS trade with Fidelity, the entity on the other side of the trade is not someone from the book, it is Fidelity. Bond trading - even government bond trading - does not work like stock trading. There are no middlemen or exchanges in bond trading; you are always dealing with your brokerage on the other side. Sometimes there's a counterparty onthe other side of Fidelity, but I believe that they trade in and out of inventory positions all day long. One possible way to ferret out your answer would be to call your brokerage and ask what the daily trading volume is on a particular issue. If you you don't want to do this with VBS, I may be able to get this information out of Fid...
- Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Too much ownership of one ETF
- Replies: 9
- Views: 806
- Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:06 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Too much ownership of one ETF
- Replies: 9
- Views: 806
Re: Too much ownership of one ETF
Thanks. Out of curiousity, what do you use to rationalize your exception?
- Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:47 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Too much ownership of one ETF
- Replies: 9
- Views: 806
Too much ownership of one ETF
How much is too much to own of an ETF? For example, if an ETF has a capitalization of about $300 million, and average daily trading volume of about $1 million, is $100K of ownership too much? What factors would you consider before making such a relatively large investment?
Thanks,
Jeff
Thanks,
Jeff
- Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:37 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
- Replies: 41
- Views: 2420
Re: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
It is not high price volatility - my nightly pricing doesn't show that at all; it shows exactly what I'd expect. It really is the "we don't advertise bonds with negative yields" thing - I've asked (and complained) more than once about this, and my recorded spreads don't show anything out of the ordinary when they are delivered by a human rather than a monitor screen.
Jeff
Jeff
- Tue Jan 03, 2012 6:17 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
- Replies: 41
- Views: 2420
Re: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
I do have an old, professional bond background. In general, I use the word "point" to be a unit of price, or spread, and the phrase "basis point" to be a measure of yield. I know that some people use "basis point" to be a measure of price as well, as you do, but I was taught (at good old Salomon Brothers, believe it or not) that a basis point was 1/100 of a point in yield, so that when the "long bond dropped 5 basis points", its yield was what did the dropping, and its price was what did the rising. The advantage of using my nomenclature (assuming that I am remembering it correctly) is that you can roughly compare nearby bonds to each other, and when the "20 year bond drops 5 basis points", ...
- Tue Jan 03, 2012 5:30 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
- Replies: 41
- Views: 2420
Re: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
I use Fidelity. When I sold some 7 year TIPS back in September, the ASK was 111.4688 and the BID was 111.1563, for a spread of 0.3125, or 5/16. That must have been one of the recent phone orders, because I received the BID price. Perhaps I am missing something, as my 5/16 spread is not as tight as the WSJ 1/8 spread...Doc wrote:jbaron wrote: (.. with the 10-year-ish bonds, is about 0.3 or 0.4 points) /quote]
The WSJ spread on the Jan 2021 is 4/32nds. Are you talking yield spread? If it's price spread will you give us the phone number of your broker?
Jeff
- Tue Jan 03, 2012 5:01 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
- Replies: 41
- Views: 2420
Re: TIPS Secondary Market Quotes
I occasionally trade TIPS at Fidelity, and I track bid/ask spreads as well as where I place my market orders and the execution that I get. In the 3 or 4 trades that I've had to do so by calling reps, I've not found that the spread is any wider than it's been in the past, which (with the 10-year-ish bonds, is about 0.3 or 0.4 points) but I do feel a bit sheepish gettting the spread and then chopping off 25% of it to place my order. C'est la vie. If I'm in the mood to "haggle" over the spread, I'll do it, but with a $10,000 bond order, 0.3 points is $30, and 1/4 of that is $7.50, so it's barely worth haggling. (And I've always had the commission waved.)
Jeff
Jeff
- Sun Dec 11, 2011 2:31 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Weimar Inflation Causes.
- Replies: 34
- Views: 3397
Re: Weimar Inflation Causes.
Printing money for/and war reparations. There is an excellent book on this subject - When Money Dies.
Jeff
Jeff
- Sun Dec 04, 2011 10:11 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Portfolio Software Recommendation?
- Replies: 16
- Views: 2204
Re: Portfolio Software Recommendation?
I also use Fund Manager, but it's not really for the feint of heart, especially if you venture past vanilla stocks and ETFs. There is a not insignificant learning curve.dnaumov wrote:I like http://www.fundmanagersoftware.com/index.html
Jeff
- Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:34 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Question for bogleheads with custom portfolio spreadsheets
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1128
Re: Question for bogleheads with custom portfolio spreadshee
What is the nature of your asset allocation - is it 3 buckets (equity/intl equity/fixed income) or 13 buckets? What is the nature of your security holdings (1 or 2 buckets on average, or 5 or 6 buckets on average)? And, have you farted around with the numbers at all to see what happens if you only assign, say, 1 bucket to each one, assuming that it isn't split between the 3 large buckets above? You might find that buckets #2 thru #5 for each security don't matter much...
Jeff
Jeff
- Wed Nov 02, 2011 5:35 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Long-Term Treasuries and IPS
- Replies: 21
- Views: 2255
Re: Long-Term Treasuries and IPS
OP:
If someone handed you an inheritance invested as per your IPS, would you sell it to cash and then have this same conversation, or would you just keep it? Lots of "already invested" people have the same dilemma (myself very included) but it doesn't seem like there's a real rish to the exits to start over. Interest rates are what interest rates are - if you are happy with your IPS, deal with it and move on!!!
Jeff
If someone handed you an inheritance invested as per your IPS, would you sell it to cash and then have this same conversation, or would you just keep it? Lots of "already invested" people have the same dilemma (myself very included) but it doesn't seem like there's a real rish to the exits to start over. Interest rates are what interest rates are - if you are happy with your IPS, deal with it and move on!!!
Jeff
- Wed Nov 02, 2011 4:41 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Rebalancing with Bonds (but without Bond Funds)
- Replies: 11
- Views: 1194
Re: Rebalancing with Bonds (but without Bond Funds)
There are many issues with doing this. I'm an engineer, and I maintain 4 small ladders (int tsys, int tips, long term tsys, and long term tips) but it takes a lot of bookkeeping just to know where you are. Among the issues: 1. Bonds are worth what their prices indicate, not $100, so different bonds in the ladder are worth different amounts, and more importantly, you rebalance based on price, not nominal amounts. This can be a bit of a challenge if you have never done this before. 2. There are many "intermediate treasury " bonds, to use one example. I use the "10 year auction bonds" that mature in Feburary and August only, and I sell off of the short end to rebalance. I don't buy these at auction, but wait until 4 months ...
- Tue Nov 01, 2011 6:57 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Long-Term Treasuries and IPS
- Replies: 21
- Views: 2255
Re: Long-Term Treasuries and IPS
I have long term treasuries and TIPS (and intermediate ones of each as well) in my IPS, in roughly equal amounts. I maintain rough ladders with 4 or 5 or 6 issues of each (but not every issue of each) and roll them over when new TIPS are issued, or when the various treasury issues are no longer the benchmark. I occasionally tweak the ratio of TIPS to nominals within the two maturity buckets when the spreads narrow or widen, but only for rebalancing purposes.
It is currently true that if you consider rolling down the yield curve, the 10 year issues "pay" as much as the 30 year issues, but I have not made any moves to change my allocations.
Jeff
It is currently true that if you consider rolling down the yield curve, the 10 year issues "pay" as much as the 30 year issues, but I have not made any moves to change my allocations.
Jeff
- Wed Oct 19, 2011 6:24 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Citi pays $285 million to settle securities fraud complaint
- Replies: 8
- Views: 898
Re: Citi pays $285 million to settle securities fraud compla
For me, the worst part of the entire episode is that Citi did not admit guilt. If constructing and selling securities fraudulently does not make for guilt, then what exactly does make for guilt? And does anyone even care anymore?
Jeff
Jeff
- Tue Oct 04, 2011 7:01 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What if Eurozone dissolves?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 2412
Canada will be the 51st state of the union, and to many people's chagrin, Mexico the 52nd! Much smaller borders that way, and the now unemployed US military could go after some Mexican drug lords!LH wrote: imo you underestimate the potency of the canadian military..... Moose born troops can be fearsome.
- Tue Oct 04, 2011 6:32 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What if Eurozone dissolves?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 2412