Search found 324 matches

by staustin
Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 16841
Views: 1337539

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case. The Shiller p/e index agrees with you. The DW and I now com...
by staustin
Mon Jul 19, 2021 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23839
Views: 3114887

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

As I type this, the S&P 500 is now at a level not seen since.....June 23, 2021. yet, yellow lights continue to flash brightly. the Shiller P/E ratio, which compares the price of the S&P 500 to the average inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years, currently sits at 38. Non adju...
by staustin
Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23839
Views: 3114887

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

as of this morning, current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 45.23. 15 being the historical median. will pass on buying more at these levels...
by staustin
Sat Jul 17, 2021 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash in bank to sleep well at night
Replies: 93
Views: 10432

Re: Cash in bank to sleep well at night

I share Warren's opinion on cash: "The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash. Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of thing. Cash is going to become worth less over time. But good businesses are going to become worth more over time. And y...
by staustin
Sat Jul 17, 2021 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation for the month and year at highest rate in 13 years
Replies: 129
Views: 12896

Re: Inflation for the month and year at highest rate in 13 years

I'm noticing a trend. 1. Inflation? What inflation? 2. Inflation is transitory. 3. Inflation is fine -- just like funemoployment! It makes your paycheck bigger. 4. It's likely transitory. 5. Next year inflation should run hotter than normal but the year after that will be lower and therefore within...
by staustin
Sat Jun 26, 2021 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Depot - kitchen countertops ?
Replies: 33
Views: 2939

Re: Home Depot - kitchen countertops ?

Used HD for new island quartz countertop.. we were pleased with the experience. Our particular need was too small for local shops.
by staustin
Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mattress Shopping - What a joke
Replies: 25
Views: 3250

Re: Mattress Shopping - What a joke

We followed the advice of a poster some weeks back who linked Amazon pages for a tuft and needle hybrid mattress, a latex mattress topper and also a pillow topper, bamboo cooling sheets. All in cost around 1200. I'll find it and link it. Simply fantastic.
by staustin
Tue Jun 15, 2021 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unexpected Inflation — How Often Does It Happen?
Replies: 47
Views: 4179

Re: Unexpected Inflation — How Often Does It Happen?

Presumably, the Fed too, not just politicians, wants to avoid the damage that high interest rates would do to our heavily indebted country. Besides, controlling inflation is not the Fed's only mandate. Achieving and maintaining high levels of inclusive employment is likely to make it more difficult...
by staustin
Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My favorite authors are turning their backs on Bonds
Replies: 167
Views: 18605

Re: My favorite authors are turning their backs on Bonds

Financial repression is certainly very real and must be considered when determining an asset allocation. We've changed the mix of our bonds but not the percentage allocation; overweight abs, corporate, high yield and emerging market. No interest in owning treasuries in the current environment or bei...
by staustin
Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:24 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: New Mexico Bogleheads Meet Up - Abq / Santa Fe
Replies: 3
Views: 2652

Re: New Mexico Bogleheads Meet Up - Abq / Santa Fe

Nothing to contribute except to say I'm jealous of the both of you living in a wonderful place.
by staustin
Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do you shop for groceries?
Replies: 148
Views: 23731

Re: Where do you shop for groceries?

In order. By dollar amount. Walmart - weekdays, mornings Sams - weekdays Aldi - weekdays Local butcher shops - weekdays The shopping experience (and that's what it is) at Walmart is much better early on a weekday. Get in, get out. I also vowed when I retired I'd only shop weekdays and before late a...
by staustin
Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: GEICO Umbrella: Significant Increase in Premium
Replies: 140
Views: 18189

Re: GEICO Umbrella: Significant Increase in Premium

hmm.... this made me look.. I'm embarrassed to say what I pay for a 2mm amica policy, although it includes 5 cars and three younger drivers.

I'm extremely loyal to amica though.
by staustin
Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Potential Relocation to Austin - Should We Do It?
Replies: 123
Views: 9269

Re: Potential Relocation to Austin - Should We Do It?

Austin (and Dallas) are actually hotter than Houston in the summer, albeit marginally less humid. It's really not any better or worse (in my opinion), and you don't have the easy escape to Galveston from Austin (which is often 10* cooler with sea breezes). However, I would point out that it's only ...
by staustin
Sat May 22, 2021 8:45 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2021!
Replies: 324
Views: 44812

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2021!

My time finally arrived at last! Friday, April 30 was my last day. I had been transitioning my work for the past couple of years but it felt really strange that last week when I was mostly clearing out files with knowledge that I'd no longer be going to work daily as I had for 40+ years. I will sti...
by staustin
Sun May 16, 2021 12:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda CRV or Suburu Forrester or other SUV
Replies: 93
Views: 8591

Re: Honda CRV or Suburu Forrester or other SUV

I can only add that we love, love, love our 2019 Subaru.... And we've owned said Honda's and Toyotas.
by staustin
Mon May 10, 2021 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What prompted you to pull the plug and retire?
Replies: 181
Views: 27299

Re: What prompted you to pull the plug and retire?

What finally did it for you? Was it a number? Your age? A bad boss? Just "tired of it all." A new goal? A new post-retirement career? Some combination? I'm on the cusp, personally, and for me it has to be a combination of number, changes at work that I don't like, my age, and probably (th...
by staustin
Fri May 07, 2021 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can't wrap head around not having cash
Replies: 90
Views: 9564

Re: Can't wrap head around not having cash

OP, as many have said, having a $140,000 EF is way above normal. Consider 6 months expenses, and invest the rest. Let's assume that's $40k. You invest the $100K and get a 10% return. That's $10K in found money. While it's true that holding so much cash might mean missing out on stock market growth ...
by staustin
Fri May 07, 2021 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency investors should be prepared to lose all their money - Bank of England
Replies: 101
Views: 10451

Re: Cryptocurrency investors should be prepared to lose all their money - Bank of England

How the conversation could have gone... Government official: "Digital currency has no intrinsic value!" Reporter: "Speaking of intrinsic value, can you talk to us about our currency and how it..." Government official: "This press conference is over" PS I agree that dig...
by staustin
Mon May 03, 2021 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence inflation?
Replies: 244
Views: 21943

Re: Whence inflation?

but isn't true inflation procter & gamble, coca cola, clorox, and now Buffett report price increases due to 'significant inflation' in input prices. earlier in april, neilsoniq reported over general merchandise year over year increase of 7%. edited to add, pepisco, hershey, modelez, kraft, gene...
by staustin
Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the case for international bonds?
Replies: 28
Views: 2353

Re: What is the case for international bonds?

I see that Vanguard incorporates international bonds into their Target Date and LifeStrategy funds. Can someone enlighten me on the following: 1) Are international bonds necessary for diversification? 2) What are the behavioral differences between domestic and international bonds? 3) What is the co...
by staustin
Wed Mar 24, 2021 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of changing AA to 50% stocks
Replies: 43
Views: 4892

Re: Talk me out of changing AA to 50% stocks

I adhere to the rule that you should never increase your asset allocation when markets are at all time highs (especially 20%), and you should never lower your asset allocation after markets crash. The time to have changed your AA was last March when the market tumbled 35%, not when the stock market...
by staustin
Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:47 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Which currency ETF for US inflation concern?
Replies: 5
Views: 1145

Re: Which currency ETF for US inflation concern?

wisdom tree has a number of hedged etf's you might consider.
by staustin
Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone kept their Amex Platinum or Sapphire Reserve during COVID?
Replies: 67
Views: 5550

Re: Anyone kept their Amex Platinum or Sapphire Reserve during COVID?

I've looked at the platinum several times but have always kept the cash back card instead, preferring cash rebates to points. Perhaps I'll look again.
by staustin
Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 10780

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:29 am Dalio mentions China a lot interviews as a new Super Power rotating into existence and competing and/or replacing USA.

Does anyone know what his asset allocation model is? Is he significantly overweight China now?
over 20% per recent bridgewater 13f
by staustin
Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 10780

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

Ray Dalio has a point, but of course even he is not infallible or can predict unknowable future events like epidemics or wars. In my view, the key is diversification. The stock portion of my portfolio has always been split half and half between US and international, with a heavy dose of EM. My bond...
by staustin
Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 10780

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

We've kept the same equity index fund allocation, added a chinese stock fund, reduced treasuries and duration on bond funds, allocated more towards corporates and high yield (combined now 1.8% yield, less than 3 year duration), added a local currency emerging market debt fund, and in the process of ...
by staustin
Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a housing bubble?
Replies: 687
Views: 122460

Re: Are we in a housing bubble?

Perhaps 50 same day bids, up to 20% over asking price is indicative of a bubble. As is 60+ p/e multiples. Zero bound interest rates and debt monetization is a beautiful thing..... The party continues unabated for the moment.
by staustin
Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bother other portfolios rather than All weather portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4028

Re: Why bother other portfolios rather than All weather portfolio

The all weather portfolio is an example of a “risk parity portfolio”, and risk parity portfolios are difficult to hold over long periods of time for two reasons: 1. They require nerves of steel to rebalance since the asset classes are extremely volatile with low correlation. Having multiple account...
by staustin
Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bother other portfolios rather than All weather portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4028

Re: Why bother other portfolios rather than All weather portfolio

So what’s your point, OP? I’m not sure I get it Hi, I am sorry about out of topic. Let me clarify my intention. The reason for me to start the topic is: I am happy with its return and the level of DD. Compare to some other portfolios, this one is not the top but its more than decent(For me). If tha...
by staustin
Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [William Bernstein: The Delusions Of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups]
Replies: 45
Views: 13503

Re: New William Bernstein book

kindle version purchased.

Huge, huge fan of the good doctor.
by staustin
Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The inflation trade
Replies: 88
Views: 7327

Re: The inflation trade

Perhaps only reflation at this stage, versus inflation. No doubt we're in the midst of some very unorthodox and increasingly aggressive monetary policy actions. How this progresses no one knows. As such, the DW and I have increased allocations to tips, local currency (non dollar denominated) bonds, ...
by staustin
Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Boglehead Lessons From the Texas Winter Storm?
Replies: 226
Views: 19428

Re: Any Boglehead Lessons From the Texas Winter Storm?

The lights are on but the water is not.. Large parts of our fair city have no water, including a large local hospital. So, the sadness continues. But, at least many now have power and can boil snow to drink or melt for toilets. As for us, we made the normal preparations and were ready for 7 days.. H...
by staustin
Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 7265

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

struggling with this decision... the dw and i have significant muni holding in taxable due to current high income / high tax rate. i suppose credit risk should factor more than anything. perhaps will begin to sell and move out of that position next week. Munis are 10% of my holdings. I'm not going ...
by staustin
Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 7265

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

struggling with this decision... the dw and i have significant muni holding in taxable due to current high income / high tax rate. i suppose credit risk should factor more than anything. perhaps will begin to sell and move out of that position next week.
by staustin
Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M1 money supply
Replies: 40
Views: 3668

Re: M1 money supply

Nobody really uses M1 as a useful money supply measure any more. What do people use then M2? M3? Neither. Money supply is no longer a issue. Anybody who wants money just has to take a asset to a bank and the bank can probably convert it into money. Or better yet, the shadow banking system. M1 reall...
by staustin
Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy rental property in Austin, TX while living in a rental property in California.
Replies: 12
Views: 1414

Re: Buy rental property in Austin, TX while living in a rental property in California.

Should I buy a rental property in a hot market like Austin or Denver before my primary home since I don't know where I am going to settle for atleast next 2 years? My portfolio (excluding 401k): $125 k cash $500 k stocks $185 k yearly income 800s credit score No debt/in my 30s My spouse portfolio (...
by staustin
Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M1 money supply
Replies: 40
Views: 3668

Re: M1 money supply

Whether reflation or inflation commodity prices up 42% in short order, long bond and 10 year up 100 basis points. Home prices increasingly quickly. Yes velocity is still low but no doubt a 50% expansion in the dollar supply will turn inflationary. Disaster to contemplate otherwise.
by staustin
Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising inflation will hurt stocks and bonds
Replies: 53
Views: 4497

Re: Rising inflation will hurt stocks and bonds

Whether rising inflation is good or bad for stocks and bonds depends on the speed with which it rises and how high it goes before it stabilizes. Like many other important things that drive investing results, these are unknowns that we merely guess at. Over the past decade+, the FED pulled out all t...
by staustin
Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4731
Views: 267223

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

My prediction is that DFV will be hauled in and interviewed if not charged. Rich people who think they run things don't like to lose money, and they really hate it when a mere multi-millionaire makes a fool of them. Charged with what, though? Pump and Dump which is illegal ... (I don't agree) Jim C...
by staustin
Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4731
Views: 267223

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Circuit breaker halt at 123.14. I guess it gives people time for the adrenaline to go back down. For the smart people on stock market stuff... I assume what is happening now is at least part of a short squeeze? The volume candles have skyrocketed in size in the past few minutes. During a short sque...
by staustin
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4731
Views: 267223

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

This is quite interesting to watch. kudos to WSB for recognizing an opportunity via 140% stock short, interesting the SEC has not to date enforced short sale limitation and interesting to listen to MSM talk about an internet forum taking on hedge funds. Speaking of which, the hedge funds made a conc...
by staustin
Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How high will VTI go?
Replies: 18
Views: 1308

Re: How high will VTI go?

Hello everyone So simply how high do you all predict VTI will go? I read something that predicts VTI might go as high as $263 a share. I plan to be invested in VTI for the long term. I never thought VTI would approach the $200 threshold but here we are. I wonder if VTI will cross into $300 range li...
by staustin
Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4731
Views: 267223

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

That subreddit is absolutely hilarious. The lord of rings vid about destruction of the shorts is fantastic. Although not joining in, good for them I say.
by staustin
Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is so special about the Toyota Tacoma?
Replies: 97
Views: 11002

Re: What is so special about the Toyota Tacoma?

2014 Tacoma.. hundred thousand hard miles. I've replaced the brakes, tires, wipers and put gas in it.. ride and fit today like when brand new.

I wouldn't own anything else.
by staustin
Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flipped out on Home Depot employee
Replies: 44
Views: 2920

Re: Flipped out on Home Depot employee

There's always Lowe's or your local Ace.
by staustin
Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: expensive family vacations with adult children?
Replies: 43
Views: 3565

Re: expensive family vacations with adult children?

The DW and I just returned from an all expenses paid ski trip with our grown children and significant others. Our children don't see each other very often, so it was very nice to have them all around a warm fire each night, laughing and playing games. Definitely worth it in our view.. But, we've als...
by staustin
Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stocks: Is anyone else facepalming right now?
Replies: 48
Views: 5110

Re: US Stocks: Is anyone else facepalming right now?

M1 has expanded by nearly 40% in recent years. Much of it seemingly invested in stock purchases. Thus a 40 p/e. No one knows where or how this ends. Interesting times if you enjoy economics. As has been said here many times only invest $'s in stocks if you're comfortable with 50%+ losses for over a ...
by staustin
Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with Bonds?
Replies: 26
Views: 2018

Re: What to do with Bonds?

Staying short duration and looking forward to the day rates normalize.
by staustin
Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why submit a FAFSA?
Replies: 145
Views: 8530

Re: Why submit a FAFSA?

Been there, done that, still annoyed about it. The reason we did it, is that people at my daughter's high school nagged the heck out of her insisting that she have her parents do it, and she nagged the heck out of us, and I spent a couple of miserable afternoons and ultimately got told that our exp...
by staustin
Fri Dec 11, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone here mostly cash in portfolio?
Replies: 210
Views: 22936

Re: Anyone here mostly cash in portfolio?

Since the March lows I've made a mistake of selling almost all of my equities. With everything up now, I realized I made a big mistake. Anyone in a similar situation and what did you end up doing? I bailed out of stocks in 2008 and moved to fixed income. I'm comfortable with where I am. I learned t...