Search found 308 matches

by staustin
Fri May 07, 2021 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can't wrap head around not having cash
Replies: 86
Views: 8108

Re: Can't wrap head around not having cash

OP, as many have said, having a $140,000 EF is way above normal. Consider 6 months expenses, and invest the rest. Let's assume that's $40k. You invest the $100K and get a 10% return. That's $10K in found money. While it's true that holding so much cash might mean missing out on stock market growth ...
by staustin
Fri May 07, 2021 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency investors should be prepared to lose all their money - Bank of England
Replies: 47
Views: 4108

Re: Cryptocurrency investors should be prepared to lose all their money - Bank of England

How the conversation could have gone... Government official: "Digital currency has no intrinsic value!" Reporter: "Speaking of intrinsic value, can you talk to us about our currency and how it..." Government official: "This press conference is over" PS I agree that dig...
by staustin
Mon May 03, 2021 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence inflation?
Replies: 230
Views: 17683

Re: Whence inflation?

but isn't true inflation procter & gamble, coca cola, clorox, and now Buffett report price increases due to 'significant inflation' in input prices. earlier in april, neilsoniq reported over general merchandise year over year increase of 7%. edited to add, pepisco, hershey, modelez, kraft, gene...
by staustin
Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the case for international bonds?
Replies: 28
Views: 2181

Re: What is the case for international bonds?

I see that Vanguard incorporates international bonds into their Target Date and LifeStrategy funds. Can someone enlighten me on the following: 1) Are international bonds necessary for diversification? 2) What are the behavioral differences between domestic and international bonds? 3) What is the co...
by staustin
Wed Mar 24, 2021 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of changing AA to 50% stocks
Replies: 43
Views: 4710

Re: Talk me out of changing AA to 50% stocks

I adhere to the rule that you should never increase your asset allocation when markets are at all time highs (especially 20%), and you should never lower your asset allocation after markets crash. The time to have changed your AA was last March when the market tumbled 35%, not when the stock market...
by staustin
Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:47 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Which currency ETF for US inflation concern?
Replies: 5
Views: 1078

Re: Which currency ETF for US inflation concern?

wisdom tree has a number of hedged etf's you might consider.
by staustin
Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone kept their Amex Platinum or Sapphire Reserve during COVID?
Replies: 67
Views: 5076

Re: Anyone kept their Amex Platinum or Sapphire Reserve during COVID?

I've looked at the platinum several times but have always kept the cash back card instead, preferring cash rebates to points. Perhaps I'll look again.
by staustin
Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 10094

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:29 am Dalio mentions China a lot interviews as a new Super Power rotating into existence and competing and/or replacing USA.

Does anyone know what his asset allocation model is? Is he significantly overweight China now?
over 20% per recent bridgewater 13f
by staustin
Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 10094

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

Ray Dalio has a point, but of course even he is not infallible or can predict unknowable future events like epidemics or wars. In my view, the key is diversification. The stock portion of my portfolio has always been split half and half between US and international, with a heavy dose of EM. My bond...
by staustin
Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 10094

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

We've kept the same equity index fund allocation, added a chinese stock fund, reduced treasuries and duration on bond funds, allocated more towards corporates and high yield (combined now 1.8% yield, less than 3 year duration), added a local currency emerging market debt fund, and in the process of ...
by staustin
Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a housing bubble?
Replies: 341
Views: 43093

Re: Are we in a housing bubble?

Perhaps 50 same day bids, up to 20% over asking price is indicative of a bubble. As is 60+ p/e multiples. Zero bound interest rates and debt monetization is a beautiful thing..... The party continues unabated for the moment.
by staustin
Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bother other portfolios rather than All weather portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 3716

Re: Why bother other portfolios rather than All weather portfolio

The all weather portfolio is an example of a “risk parity portfolio”, and risk parity portfolios are difficult to hold over long periods of time for two reasons: 1. They require nerves of steel to rebalance since the asset classes are extremely volatile with low correlation. Having multiple account...
by staustin
Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bother other portfolios rather than All weather portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 3716

Re: Why bother other portfolios rather than All weather portfolio

So what’s your point, OP? I’m not sure I get it Hi, I am sorry about out of topic. Let me clarify my intention. The reason for me to start the topic is: I am happy with its return and the level of DD. Compare to some other portfolios, this one is not the top but its more than decent(For me). If tha...
by staustin
Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [William Bernstein: The Delusions Of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups]
Replies: 45
Views: 13128

Re: New William Bernstein book

kindle version purchased.

Huge, huge fan of the good doctor.
by staustin
Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The inflation trade
Replies: 88
Views: 6503

Re: The inflation trade

Perhaps only reflation at this stage, versus inflation. No doubt we're in the midst of some very unorthodox and increasingly aggressive monetary policy actions. How this progresses no one knows. As such, the DW and I have increased allocations to tips, local currency (non dollar denominated) bonds, ...
by staustin
Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Boglehead Lessons From the Texas Winter Storm?
Replies: 226
Views: 18631

Re: Any Boglehead Lessons From the Texas Winter Storm?

The lights are on but the water is not.. Large parts of our fair city have no water, including a large local hospital. So, the sadness continues. But, at least many now have power and can boil snow to drink or melt for toilets. As for us, we made the normal preparations and were ready for 7 days.. H...
by staustin
Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6932

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

struggling with this decision... the dw and i have significant muni holding in taxable due to current high income / high tax rate. i suppose credit risk should factor more than anything. perhaps will begin to sell and move out of that position next week. Munis are 10% of my holdings. I'm not going ...
by staustin
Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6932

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

struggling with this decision... the dw and i have significant muni holding in taxable due to current high income / high tax rate. i suppose credit risk should factor more than anything. perhaps will begin to sell and move out of that position next week.
by staustin
Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M1 money supply
Replies: 40
Views: 3409

Re: M1 money supply

Nobody really uses M1 as a useful money supply measure any more. What do people use then M2? M3? Neither. Money supply is no longer a issue. Anybody who wants money just has to take a asset to a bank and the bank can probably convert it into money. Or better yet, the shadow banking system. M1 reall...
by staustin
Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy rental property in Austin, TX while living in a rental property in California.
Replies: 12
Views: 1337

Re: Buy rental property in Austin, TX while living in a rental property in California.

Should I buy a rental property in a hot market like Austin or Denver before my primary home since I don't know where I am going to settle for atleast next 2 years? My portfolio (excluding 401k): $125 k cash $500 k stocks $185 k yearly income 800s credit score No debt/in my 30s My spouse portfolio (...
by staustin
Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M1 money supply
Replies: 40
Views: 3409

Re: M1 money supply

Whether reflation or inflation commodity prices up 42% in short order, long bond and 10 year up 100 basis points. Home prices increasingly quickly. Yes velocity is still low but no doubt a 50% expansion in the dollar supply will turn inflationary. Disaster to contemplate otherwise.
by staustin
Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising inflation will hurt stocks and bonds
Replies: 53
Views: 4171

Re: Rising inflation will hurt stocks and bonds

Whether rising inflation is good or bad for stocks and bonds depends on the speed with which it rises and how high it goes before it stabilizes. Like many other important things that drive investing results, these are unknowns that we merely guess at. Over the past decade+, the FED pulled out all t...
by staustin
Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4587
Views: 234888

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

My prediction is that DFV will be hauled in and interviewed if not charged. Rich people who think they run things don't like to lose money, and they really hate it when a mere multi-millionaire makes a fool of them. Charged with what, though? Pump and Dump which is illegal ... (I don't agree) Jim C...
by staustin
Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4587
Views: 234888

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Circuit breaker halt at 123.14. I guess it gives people time for the adrenaline to go back down. For the smart people on stock market stuff... I assume what is happening now is at least part of a short squeeze? The volume candles have skyrocketed in size in the past few minutes. During a short sque...
by staustin
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4587
Views: 234888

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

This is quite interesting to watch. kudos to WSB for recognizing an opportunity via 140% stock short, interesting the SEC has not to date enforced short sale limitation and interesting to listen to MSM talk about an internet forum taking on hedge funds. Speaking of which, the hedge funds made a conc...
by staustin
Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How high will VTI go?
Replies: 18
Views: 1211

Re: How high will VTI go?

Hello everyone So simply how high do you all predict VTI will go? I read something that predicts VTI might go as high as $263 a share. I plan to be invested in VTI for the long term. I never thought VTI would approach the $200 threshold but here we are. I wonder if VTI will cross into $300 range li...
by staustin
Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4587
Views: 234888

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

That subreddit is absolutely hilarious. The lord of rings vid about destruction of the shorts is fantastic. Although not joining in, good for them I say.
by staustin
Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is so special about the Toyota Tacoma?
Replies: 97
Views: 10646

Re: What is so special about the Toyota Tacoma?

2014 Tacoma.. hundred thousand hard miles. I've replaced the brakes, tires, wipers and put gas in it.. ride and fit today like when brand new.

I wouldn't own anything else.
by staustin
Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flipped out on Home Depot employee
Replies: 44
Views: 2769

Re: Flipped out on Home Depot employee

There's always Lowe's or your local Ace.
by staustin
Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: expensive family vacations with adult children?
Replies: 43
Views: 3337

Re: expensive family vacations with adult children?

The DW and I just returned from an all expenses paid ski trip with our grown children and significant others. Our children don't see each other very often, so it was very nice to have them all around a warm fire each night, laughing and playing games. Definitely worth it in our view.. But, we've als...
by staustin
Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stocks: Is anyone else facepalming right now?
Replies: 48
Views: 4879

Re: US Stocks: Is anyone else facepalming right now?

M1 has expanded by nearly 40% in recent years. Much of it seemingly invested in stock purchases. Thus a 40 p/e. No one knows where or how this ends. Interesting times if you enjoy economics. As has been said here many times only invest $'s in stocks if you're comfortable with 50%+ losses for over a ...
by staustin
Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with Bonds?
Replies: 26
Views: 1936

Re: What to do with Bonds?

Staying short duration and looking forward to the day rates normalize.
by staustin
Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why submit a FAFSA?
Replies: 145
Views: 8327

Re: Why submit a FAFSA?

Been there, done that, still annoyed about it. The reason we did it, is that people at my daughter's high school nagged the heck out of her insisting that she have her parents do it, and she nagged the heck out of us, and I spent a couple of miserable afternoons and ultimately got told that our exp...
by staustin
Fri Dec 11, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone here mostly cash in portfolio?
Replies: 210
Views: 22212

Re: Anyone here mostly cash in portfolio?

Since the March lows I've made a mistake of selling almost all of my equities. With everything up now, I realized I made a big mistake. Anyone in a similar situation and what did you end up doing? I bailed out of stocks in 2008 and moved to fixed income. I'm comfortable with where I am. I learned t...
by staustin
Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do YOU make coffee?
Replies: 342
Views: 24421

Re: How do YOU make coffee?

In our cupboard, the DW and I have a french press, two pour overs, a kettle and an italian stovetop expresso... Funny enough, we've always drifted back to the good ole 12 cup drip coffee maker. We do indulge in a more expensive coffee though; purchasing an organic, fair trade, french roasted coffee ...
by staustin
Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Depressed About Money
Replies: 31
Views: 3130

Re: Depressed About Money

Tingting1013 wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:28 pm I am one of those who makes double what you make.

I don’t own any Teslas or BMWs, and my house is only 1600 sqft.

Should I be the one who is depressed?
Such a great post!!
by staustin
Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with replacing water heater
Replies: 49
Views: 3229

Re: Help with replacing water heater

As part of a house remodel several years ago, we decided to go with a natural gas tankless water heater. It has been absolutely worth it in my opinion. With a busy household, never having to worry about running out of hot water has been absolutely wonderful. Upkeep is minimal (you should flush it o...
by staustin
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3670

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

Hard to argue with his premise and the history of prior empire declines supports his argument. We are engaged in debt monetization and currency debasement. And emerging economies and structures are being put in place which will eventually allow for more and more trades in local currencies. A smart ...
by staustin
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3670

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

Hard to argue with his premise and the history of prior empire declines supports his argument. We are engaged in debt monetization and currency debasement. And emerging economies and structures are being put in place which will eventually allow for more and more trades in local currencies. A smart i...
by staustin
Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Overcoming the fear of an early retirement
Replies: 117
Views: 9164

Re: Overcoming the fear of an early retirement

I'm in a similar situation. early 50's. I'm a highly compensated manager who has suffered mentally and physically the last two years. The golden handcuffs are very real and very difficult to escape. I had guilt for quite awhile thinking I was letting my family down if i 'left money on the table'. Bu...
by staustin
Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?
Replies: 69
Views: 6850

Re: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?

For intellectual stimulation mostly, I allocate a small amount of our overall portfolio to speculative purchases. Generally over the last three down cycles, purchasing a select number of stocks in beaten down sectors. This time around it's small REITs. I've been purchasing apartment and grocery anch...
by staustin
Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you listening to now
Replies: 1681
Views: 101689

Re: What are you listening to now

sleaford mods... a guilty pleasure when i'm stressed..

i don't recommend it to anyone though... :D
by staustin
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retirees: How you spend your time?
Replies: 63
Views: 7836

Re: Retirees: How you spend your time?

Question for those that have already retired: How do you currently spend your time? More specifically, how does it compare to how you thought you would spend your time in retirement? Also, any tips on making the actual transition? I'm self-employed. I semi-retired six months ago, and am having a di...
by staustin
Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]
Replies: 2842
Views: 281011

Re: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]

yellowstone, at the wife's request.... she'd leave me for Rip, no question.
by staustin
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month
Replies: 174
Views: 17938

Re: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month

without sports, we've barely watched youtube tv at all... likely will cancel.
by staustin
Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring Abroad
Replies: 110
Views: 15832

Re: Retiring Abroad

In “normal” (non-Covid-19) times, my wife and I split our years between our home in a HCOL area in the USA and a medium COL city in Europe. We own a home in the USA and rent an apartment in Europe. We use our European apartment as our hub for travel throughout Europe. I’d estimate that our non-trav...
by staustin
Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund Allocation w/Fed projecting no rate increase through 2022
Replies: 14
Views: 1623

Re: Bond Fund Allocation w/Fed projecting no rate increase through 2022

There's been much talk and speculation in the forum about what bond fund(s) to hold as rates are so low. There have been questions of whether to stay in a Total Bond Fund fearing rate increases would cause bond prices to drop. Some talked of going heavier into short and ultra-short term funds to pr...
by staustin
Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Euphoria?
Replies: 63
Views: 5318

Re: Market Euphoria?

What is actionable here? I don’t know, I am just curious if others are wrestling with the same emotions and what advice they may have for “staying the course” and not maxing out every form of leverage possible This was the most telegraphed financial crisis in history. If you didn’t actively manage ...
by staustin
Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 29438

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

S&P's 12 month forward P/E ratio now approaching 35.... absurdly high by any historical measure. Massive liquidity injections, ongoing debt monetization (today's marketwatch front page article discussing fed's plan to actively suppress bond yields), historically high deficit spending, rates appr...
by staustin
Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 29438

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-money-supply-3306128 see attached.. the fed has expanded m2 from just over 3 trillion in 1990 to over 15 trillion at the end of 2019. anticipated inflation has not occurred to the degree expected which is a topic greatly debated among economist (liquidity trap, glo...