Search found 476 matches

by dh
Wed May 20, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China
Replies: 27
Views: 2188

Re: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China

Dimensional Fund's (DFA) Emerging Market Fund is approximately 20%-25% in China. If I recall correctly it has a relatively high percentage of holdings in Taiwanese stocks (15%-20%). Having reported that, I don't think Vanguard's EM fund being 40+% in China is "wrong." I was just replying to the OPs ...
by dh
Sun May 17, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate Movement
Replies: 73
Views: 4415

Re: TIAA Real Estate Movement

And a 2-week update: TREA has dropped to near the values it had on March 23 which was a market low for 2020. Since then the stock market has gone up almost 30% and the Vanguard REIT index fund has gone up about 20%. So as expected, TREA is doing its own thing. I have decided to sell the rest of my ...
by dh
Sun May 17, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent is increased by 6%, negotiation tips?
Replies: 60
Views: 5085

Re: Rent is increased by 6%, negotiation tips?

As others have said, it is worth trying to negotiate. Yet, past experience has shown me that current renters have little leverage. It is assumed that current renters will stay because of moving costs (time and money). The best place to negotiate is on a new place should you decide to move. If you fo...
by dh
Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Early retirees who were close - how are you adjusting
Replies: 45
Views: 6133

Re: Early retirees who were close - how are you adjusting

This question is to any early retirees here (<= 55 years old) who were very close to retirement and had just reached a number to support the 4% rule. Now that your portfolio has fallen quite a bit have you decided to go ahead and retire anyway, pushed out your retirement date or decided to retire b...
by dh
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: WTI Crude oil is $1.38/barrel less than Gallon of gas
Replies: 19
Views: 1628

Re: WTI Crude oil is $1.38/barrel less than Gallon of gas

johnpau wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:58 pm
WTI Crude oil is $1.38/barrel less than Gallon of gas :( :( :(


Any ETFs/Index funds which just focus on Oil alone ? instead of the entire Energy sector ?
The ultimate DIY strategy - build a refinery and then sell the gas. :beer
by dh
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Press Release 4/16/20– Vanguard Closes Treasury Money Market Fund to New Investors
Replies: 46
Views: 4089

Re: Press Release 4/16/20– Vanguard Closes Treasury Money Market Fund to New Investors

It’s my fault. I parked $200k in there on Monday. Now they’re pissed. So it was you, printer86! Honestly, I am not surprised as people shift into the safest assets they can find. Kudos to Vanguard for protecting all who participate in their funds. Vanguard acts responsibly and I am glad to have mov...
by dh
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VUSXX vs FDIC Bank Accounts
Replies: 29
Views: 2117

Re: VUSXX vs FDIC Bank Accounts

Putting yield aside though purely based on safety of funds and liquidity would VSUXX be on PAR with Bank accounts? I can respect FDIC insurance, but I also respect the U.S. Federal government. I don't think either will default or somehow fail to pay. Since the VUSXX fund is comprised entirely of T-...
by dh
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am feeling forced to buy into this market
Replies: 55
Views: 6064

Re: I am feeling forced to buy into this market

As others have stated you are experiencing the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO). The advantage of being a Boglehead is the recognition that we invest fully cognizant that the market is risky and can go into a bear market (losing 50%) at any point in time (it would be illogical to think we get a risk premi...
by dh
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 30539

Re: My theory about FIRE

I am too old (and have worked too long) to be part of the FIRE movement. Yet, I see FIRE like a modern day version of the "Simplicity Circles" (mostly in the PNW) that read and followed Joe Dominguez and Vicki Robin's Your Money or Your Life . To me, that group and the current day FIRE group are rea...
by dh
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who is buying I Bonds before May 1st?
Replies: 54
Views: 5510

Re: I Bonds before May?

Yes, in addition to the variable rate going down, the fixed rate will reset in May and it is likely that it will be going to zero. This guy is predicting as of January that .2% fixed will be the highest we see this year, and both inflation and interest rates have dropped since then. Buying now will...
by dh
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 17801

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

As I told Moto, I understand my Risk Tolerance fully and despite my age of 36, I do not have an allocation of 70% equity over fixed income/bonds because that's never been my tolerance. So my asset allocation (which is Conservative/Moderate) is right for my Risk Tolerance and I think I'll be all set...
by dh
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report
Replies: 18
Views: 1802

Re: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report

Agreed. I honestly believed it would happen in May. Since, it will not I can imagine the combined rate going to 0 in November. If that does happen and someone wants to hold this for just a year, the 3 month penalty would be moot since it would be the last three months of zero. Hence, while I am a l...
by dh
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report
Replies: 18
Views: 1802

Re: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report

... from the BLS report this morning the new variable rate will be 1.06% (from an Sep 2019 to March 2020 increase of 0.53%). Yes, the 258.115 March CPI is a 0.53% increase over last September's 256.759. (To see, choose U.S. city average, All items - CUUR0000SA0 from the BLS CPI-U Top Picks page.) H...
by dh
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report
Replies: 18
Views: 1802

Re: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report

Agreed. I honestly believed it would happen in May. Since, it will not I can imagine the combined rate going to 0 in November. If that does happen and someone wants to hold this for just a year, the 3 month penalty would be moot since it would be the last three months of zero. Hence, while I am a l...
by dh
Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report
Replies: 18
Views: 1802

Re: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report

... from the BLS report this morning the new variable rate will be 1.06% (from an Sep 2019 to March 2020 increase of 0.53%). Yes, the 258.115 March CPI is a 0.53% increase over last September's 256.759. (To see, choose U.S. city average, All items - CUUR0000SA0 from the BLS CPI-U Top Picks page.) H...
by dh
Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report
Replies: 18
Views: 1802

Re: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report

However, the consensus is the fixed-rate, currently 0.2%, will drop to 0.0 on May 1 - and the variable rate in November could also easily reset to 0 - actually if the variable rate gets set to negative, the bonds could end up paying 0 after they all get their new rates reset. Agreed. I honestly bel...
by dh
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report
Replies: 18
Views: 1802

I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report

I was fully expecting the CPI-U data reported today to reduce low yielding fixed I-Bonds to zero. However, from the BLS report this morning the new variable rate will be 1.06% (from an Sep 2019 to March 2020 increase of 0.53%). I first learned about I-Bonds from Mel a long time ago! Not many people ...
by dh
Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years
Replies: 110
Views: 9903

Re: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years

He is obviously not a Boglehead! If he becomes one, his returns might be higher than 2%! :mrgreen: Does anyone have a link to the clip that Jack Bogle was also predicting a lower stock market return going forward. I believe it was a bit more than 2%, yet I remember it wasn't a high single digit num...
by dh
Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson
Replies: 75
Views: 10516

Re: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson

I appreciated his provocative statement, he views his portfolio as two parts:
(1) the fixed side is the money that he can use;
(2) the stock side is money for others to use.

Thank you William Bernstein for your great contributions! :sharebeer
by dh
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I were a retiree right now....
Replies: 81
Views: 10718

Re: If I were a retiree right now....

I would be 50% cash and 50% inflation-protected assets.... ...The only logical choice seems 50/50 cash and inflation protected assets. If I were a retiree right now...wait a minute, I am. And, I don't think I'm being illogical even though we have a plan different from what you say is the only logic...
by dh
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?
Replies: 271
Views: 17130

Re: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?

When we get the all clear, I will drive eight miles to my son's house and hold his newly adopted eight week old Golden Retriever puppy for the first time. There is nothing better than a Golden puppy. I hope that happens for you in the very near future, Teacher! I looking forward to traveling to see...
by dh
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course
Replies: 48
Views: 4942

Re: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course

Thank you for sharing this! It is good to read and I think Jack Bogle is smiling down from heaven. It seemed that we have had many "noisy" posts of people who not only bailed out but encouraged others to do so (hedgefund managers? individuals who want to publish a newsletter? :wink: who knows). Well...
by dh
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I moved to cash on March 13th and I’m regretting my decision now
Replies: 77
Views: 9302

Re: I moved to cash on March 13th and I’m regretting my decision now

I’m age 59 and have been retired for 10 years. I moved $350,000 out of Wellington and $400,000 out of Life Strategy Moderate into Vanguard MM. I had plenty of cash to weather the storm and realize now I made a mistake locking in about $220,000 in losses although my overall ROR was about 7.5% over t...
by dh
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5624
Views: 481408

Re: New Bull Market!

I know a lot of you are confused by the signals the market has given, but I have done a LOT of technical analysis and I can tell you that all of my experience allows me to GUARANTEE you that the market will, in the coming days, move up or down. You are on record (a guarantee of movement up or down)...
by dh
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I moved to cash on March 13th and I’m regretting my decision now
Replies: 77
Views: 9302

Re: I moved to cash on March 13th and I’m regretting my decision now

I’m age 59 and have been retired for 10 years. I moved $350,000 out of Wellington and $400,000 out of Life Strategy Moderate into Vanguard MM. I had plenty of cash to weather the storm and realize now I made a mistake locking in about $220,000 in losses although my overall ROR was about 7.5% over t...
by dh
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How a new investor should begin during bear market
Replies: 10
Views: 827

Re: How a new investor should begin during bear market

OP, The most important thing you can do is to save and invest regularly and try to keep upping the rate by a Living Below Your Means. FWIW, advised my daughter to start with a Target Date fund, add regularly and don’t worry about current values. At some point it’s worth it to shift, but it’s a grea...
by dh
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Differences in strategies: Ramsey vs Bogle]
Replies: 60
Views: 3818

Re: Ramsey or Bogle?

Well Ramsey is an entertainer and Bogle was a genius. Not much to compare here... +1 Someone recently posted a video of Ramsey who lost it because the market was declining. Whereas Jack Bogle always demonstrated grit, Dave Ramsey seemed tossed around like a dingy in a hurricane. I am with Jack! RIP
by dh
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the ‘emotional/psychological’ side of investing at this point in time
Replies: 17
Views: 1248

Re: the ‘emotional/psychological’ side of investing at this point in time

Yes Yes Yes Still, this isn't/wasn't easy. When the market was overvalued (mid February), I had that feeling that I had been under invested in stocks and wished I had ridden the elevator up (envious of those who had more?). Now I wish I had been at only 25% in stocks at the beginning of this month (...
by dh
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Work From Home] - What does your company pay for?
Replies: 83
Views: 4526

Re: [Work From Home] - What does your company pay for?

I brought my computer home, so I am using that rather than my own. I already had internet and phone at home. That cost didn't change by working from home. So, while the company doesn't really pay for anything (since I would be using their computer from my office), I save fuel and the time spent comm...
by dh
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Facebook reading our minds?
Replies: 38
Views: 4171

Re: Facebook reading our minds?

They didn't have to "read your mind", you said you talked about looking for a recipe. If you have a smart-phone with the Facebook app, they very well could be listening to you and offering suggestions based on that. They're still working on the mind reading functionality, which is more complicated ...
by dh
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH question DODBX to VWENX
Replies: 10
Views: 384

Re: TLH question DODBX to VWENX

I have some Dodge and Cox Balanced DODBX in my taxable account that I'd like to TLH and move to Wellington VWENX. Would you consider it “substantially identical”? It looks pretty close, but thought I would ask. Thanks. I looked at the top ten holdings for each, and they do not appear to be "substan...
by dh
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 17801

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

My god!! please someone lock this thread. P Please don't!!! The more threads I read about a person's panic selling strategy (followed by them ranting at all of us to do the same, and to thank the OP for being so smart and for "saving us") gives me great confidence I am doing the right thing in bein...
by dh
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 188
Views: 11939

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

fortyofforty wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:52 am
No need to flame you. I will simply point out the obvious: if you have a set asset allocation, it should be the same allocation in December 2018, December 2019 and December 2020. Rebalance. Just rebalance. No need to overreact, or react with emotion to what should be a logical plan.
+1
by dh
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7384

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

No one could have seen COVID-19 coming. Yet, the advantage of being a Boglehead is the recognition that we invest fully cognizant that the market is risky and can go into a bear market (losing 50%) at any point in time (it would be illogical to think we get a risk premium without taking risk). So th...
by dh
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Would Jack Bogle Do?
Replies: 45
Views: 3274

Re: What Would Jack Bogle Do?

He would say "Stay the course. I have meant it every single time, and I mean it again today!"
by dh
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When are you rebalancing?
Replies: 76
Views: 4574

Re: When are you rebalancing?

I never rebalance when my portfolio first breaches the +/- 5% threshold. I wait a week or two and see if the portfolio moves back within tolerance on its own before I attempt to do anything. For example, my 60/40 portfolio became 54/46 at yesterday's market close. I suspect it will be back within 5...
by dh
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?
Replies: 98
Views: 7061

Re: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?

I am part of the "traditional movement," yet have been fascinated with the FIRE movement. From what I have seen is that many of them have a great deal of human capital and skills necessary in today's world. Most seem to have not really retired; rather they are pursuing alternative careers (or work s...
by dh
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 9601

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

I have no crystal ball readings on the impact on earnings, yet as everyone remembers from basic math a significant change in the denominator (P/E) will impact the valuation of stocks. If COVID-19 has a significant impact on earnings, we may discover that even after a big decline in stock prices sinc...
by dh
Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard prime money market [FDIC insured alternatives?]
Replies: 26
Views: 1829

Re: vanguard prime money market [FDIC insured alternatives?]

If you want to keep it at Vanguard, you may want to consider moving to Vanguard Treasury Money Market (VUSXX). It is 100% treasuries.
by dh
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20326

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

I am not an economist, yet I struggle to see why some in the media perceive this as a positive. Doesn't this simply suggest that the economy is declining and the dollar will get weaker and weaker. Perhaps it is needed (I am not arguing that point), yet I don't understand the positive spin. :shock: M...
by dh
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When are you rebalancing?
Replies: 76
Views: 4574

Re: When are you rebalancing?

Quick question about the details of rebalancing. Assume you have an AA of: 50% US/20% International stock/30% bond. 5% rebalancing bands. Over the past year, US stock had increased, but not to the point of rebalancing. Current holdings now are: 53% US stock, 15% International stock, 32% bond. So it...
by dh
Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some good books on market crashes?
Replies: 8
Views: 332

Re: What are some good books on market crashes?

Roth's The Great Depression: A Diary
by dh
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you still going to the gym ...
Replies: 210
Views: 12390

Re: Are you still going to the gym ...

This week I didn't go as often. Only two days instead of my usual five. I'm 75 y/o. But today my 80 y/o brother told me that he hadn't missed a day because he wanted to "stay in shape" to ward off the caronovirus or do better if he contracted it. So I'm back on my usual five day schedule now. I'll ...
by dh
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: exchange TIAA traditional with Stock during bear market?
Replies: 14
Views: 647

Re: exchange TIAA traditional with Stock during bear market?

Thanks for the advice! I will stay the course. When the stock tanks and gets out of balance, should I use my TIAA traditional or TIAA real estate to rebalance? I would like to echo Retired1809's response. With yields declining, TIAA traditional is the best fixed incom e you can find! I would be ext...
by dh
Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VG/Schwab March estimated dividends
Replies: 12
Views: 809

Re: VG/Schwab March estimated dividends

I don't know about Schwab, but Vanguard posts (check back for updates):
https://investornews.vanguard/estimated ... ributions/
by dh
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash
Replies: 93
Views: 15091

Re: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash

He's still saying that stocks have returned 12% annually and that you can withdraw 8% from your portfolio with safety. When it comes to investing, why should anyone on this forum care at all what he says? Seriously????? If that is true, I would add .. why should anyone in the world care what he say...
by dh
Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash
Replies: 93
Views: 15091

Re: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash

Best buying opportunity in 10 or 15 years. More like 15 months, unless he thinks S&P 500 at 2750 is a better than it was at 2350 15 months earlier. You beat me to it. He is focused solely on the short-term and probably doesn't have an asset allocation in line with his ability to take risks (hence, ...
by dh
Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Okay, now when you do buy back in?
Replies: 230
Views: 21560

Re: Okay, now when you do buy back in?

I re-balance once per year on a set date, or when an asset class strays greater than 5% from its target allocation. If stocks keep plunging, I will be selling bonds and buying stocks in the near future. Out of curiosity, is that 5% absolute? Meaning if you have an AA of 50/50 when it gets to 45/55 ...
by dh
Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
Replies: 129
Views: 9164

Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

StormShadow wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm
... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
Double checked my IPS ... Doing something because I am "terrified" (not that I am) is not part of my plan. Staying the course. :sharebeer
by dh
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money you put in the stock market is NEVER lost?
Replies: 95
Views: 3453

Re: Money you put in the stock market is NEVER lost?

No I think you're not understanding what I'm trying to say. $1000 in ANY fund and then the fund loses $500 lets say. I now have $500 in my fund. Now I add $500 and I have $1000 in the fund. I'm ahead $500. So my net worth has increased $500 even though there was a $500 loss. It doesn't MATTER if I ...