Search found 391 matches

by jwillis77373
Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE REGISTRATION IS CLOSED. WAIT LIST IS AVAILABLE.
Replies: 121
Views: 33023

Re: 2019 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE REGISTRATION OPEN ANNOUNCEMENT

Registered, returning after attending one conference in which I met Mr. Bogle. I never returned before because I really wanted other people to get a chance to meet him, now seems the right time. I don't know what to expect except the people who attend these conferences are really top notch rare individuals with level heads. Always great conversations. I hope Laura can come. I hope Christine Benz and Rick Ferri can also get to attend, they always light up the room. Last time I was there I was trying a new type of digital camcorder and took lots of video I finally decided not to post it online since it was agreed the location needed to remain anonymous. Things have changed. If anyone wants it perhaps if its approved it can be made availalble ...
by jwillis77373
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 266
Views: 42604

Re: Tributes to Jack Bogle

A couple years ago I won a lottery, showed up for breakfast one morning.. and there was this really cool guy in line behind me. HIs name was Jack Bogle, a sharp as a tack, brilliant conversationalist with fresh and new ideas far beyond Index Investing. I found him through his early ideas and then the Bogleheads, but never forget he was an active researcher to the very end. His work was never done. But we live in special times, by his estimate Indexing would still be a viable approach for individuals and institutions for many decades to come regardless of its recent growth. We tend to keep looking 'for the next great thing'.. to find an edge or, find something no one else has thought about.. his greatest insight was.. in plain sight.. its do...
by jwillis77373
Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - ... Stop Index Trackers [from] Eating the Economy
Replies: 23
Views: 4107

Re: WSJ - ... Stop Index Trackers [from] Eating the Economy

Isn't the [Problem with Indexing] predicated on the "idea" that "pricing" is the only way of generating value?

I see a problem with that assumption.
by jwillis77373
Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard fund shareholders encouraged to vote as proxy campaign gets under way."
Replies: 89
Views: 32678

Re: "Vanguard fund shareholders encouraged to vote as proxy campaign gets under way."

Prop 7 - (first I am not in favor of it, looks to suspciously fishy to me that someone is trying to manipulate the company.. very suspicously)

It may be with hindsight, but if Prop 7 leads to the index funds failing to track the index significantly, lawsuits could come to bear.. and people would leave the fund anyway simply because by its own simple metric.. it failed to track the index. (causing that would also be a way to manipulate the company by "excuse the pun".. proxy)

It just has all the ear marks of a trial balloon as seeing just how many people who own the index are watching their money.
by jwillis77373
Mon May 29, 2017 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT
Replies: 192
Views: 41195

Re: 2017 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT

Very thoughtful Dodecahedron. Berkshires filled a basketball stadium, and I really think Jack would do so as well.. if they didn't limit it in some fashion. A great deal of thought goes into keeping the Boglehead Conference small and managable, and thinking about Jack.. its well considered. One thing keeping it small does is make it easier to screen out possible problems.. you have to be observant and dedicated to get a chance at attending. Berkshires is so large it was practically unmanageable, they simply had to deal with things "after" they happened. Some laughable, some very serious.. Berkshires event is not an event to attend without due caution... its a full on Sporting event. Berkshires was also all about reporting on "...
by jwillis77373
Mon May 29, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT
Replies: 192
Views: 41195

Re: 2017 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT

The Wiki Tapes are a treasure trove of information.. and probably the most appropriate venue in which to safely release that material. However.. here is a constructive suggestion. Vanguard really rolled out the Red Carpet treatment for attendees last year, they are on very good terms with Jack once again. We were bused to the Vanguard campus for a tour and ushered into a theater in which to view and participate in a private conversation with a number of represenatives. Now they may already be planning to build upon this.. they are very smart people. But if they were to "Stream" only that small event in the evening it might be well worth it. Its in a controlled setting (lots of lighting and good sound system) and Jack and all the a...
by jwillis77373
Mon May 29, 2017 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT
Replies: 192
Views: 41195

Re: 2017 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT

I have to budget my trips.. and went to see Berkshires meeting this year. (coencidentally I got to see Jack as well.. and, it was a heart felt event). I regret being unable to attend this year.. and I am greatful for the opportunity to attend the Bogleheads Conference at least once in my life. You haven't got to know Jack until you've met him in person... articles and TV (do not) do him justice! He is uncommon. Maybe next year, I'll certainly be trying for a slot. [answer: Could they Stream it?] - I thought something similar, and brought the gear.. but you have to understand the logistics are that everyone pays their way, and bandwidth in Philadelphia is not "free". Also there are serious security implications.. and occasionally p...
by jwillis77373
Mon May 15, 2017 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NBC WB interview on Jack Bogle
Replies: 13
Views: 2393

Re: NBC WB interview on Jack Bogle

Among the two choices, the tracking error has been relatively small. But in the absolute numbers. Today 05-15-2017 Investor class Vanguard 500 (VFINX) Exprense Ratio 0.14 Vanguard Tot (VTSMX) Expense Ratio 0.15 If you throw out foreign, you have to convince yourself that 0.01 is worth the "risk" it will out perform the SP500 over the long term. There is no way around saying, from the start, VTSMX will be more expensive.. its a simple fact (today). The one thing you know you can control is Cost (Fees). So you have to also convince yourself paying more is worth it, and that is what both Jack and Warren say.. we (non-professionals) are good at making decisions based on Cost. We are not good at making decisions based on anything else....
by jwillis77373
Mon May 15, 2017 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NBC WB interview on Jack Bogle
Replies: 13
Views: 2393

NBC WB interview on Jack Bogle

This is a nice little interview with Warren Buffet. Buried in the text was a choice quote from Mr. Buffet He added: "And don't let them talk to you about other index funds…and say you know, you have to have foreign or maybe you can pick a better industry. You'll almost always find it comes with bigger fees." I would quote more but don't want to cross some line. Suffice it to say, he went further into singling out the SP500 Index not the Total Market Index as his recommended investment vehicle. I don't mean it as a critique.. I think Mr. Buffet is a brilliant person and wise investor.. he sees things most people do not. But the 'Oracle of the Obvious' sometimes come to my mind, he like Jack has a knack for pointing out things most ...
by jwillis77373
Wed May 10, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit
Replies: 32
Views: 5944

Re: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit

Lazyday I haven't heard of rating a stock or index by a "Trust factor" either. But something along the lines of a "ratings agency" for bond for stocks would sound like the same thing. But that was exploited to overvalue Bonds recently with derivatives.. so I guess that isn't necessarily trustworthy either. And even when they are caught they aren't penalized with the laws on the books.. gosh it seems like a toxic systemic flaw. One thing I like about Index investing in Total Domestic market is that its seems to let the delluded and delluders trade the moral and amoral, true and false values of stocks.. but sooner or later the musical chairs have to stop and a "shake out" occurs.. maybe every 8 or 9 years.. and w...
by jwillis77373
Wed May 10, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit
Replies: 32
Views: 5944

Re: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit

I guess.

On the bright side of things.

Jack Bogle pretty much said "get your fair share"

If they are "all" doing it and you can't trust the numbers, whatever the "true" numbers are.. you will be getting "a portion" of the true profits.. and earnings.. whatever those "hidden" numbers actually are, and at lower cost.

Minimizing the upfront "costs" is fixed.. you know what you paid.. they can't (like a credit card) go back in time and reprice it higher later.

I also guess the Tax system can reprice it higher.. but that's out of our control.
by jwillis77373
Wed May 10, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit
Replies: 32
Views: 5944

Re: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit

I appreciate the additional commentary lazyday.

I do remember Charlie very agitated about Trucks.. very animated.

I think I see their point now. .. wow.

This really does seem "illegal".. and people like me were caught totally unaware.

This is "housing crisis" bad.

Really bad.
by jwillis77373
Wed May 10, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit
Replies: 32
Views: 5944

Re: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit

I see pajamas.

Thank you.

I recall he also addressed the Amoritization and Depreciation issues as well, but I see it as a larger piece of an on going conversation about whether to "trust" a company that reports its earnings to its shareholders.

Gosh on those issues alone "picking" a stock seems difficult if your not aware of this Princess Bride like "redefine poor performance, to mean good performance".. its seems many companies are out-right lying and defending the right to lie without much justification.

Even the SP500 seems vulnerable when they are all doing it.

This makes me feel really depressed.
by jwillis77373
Wed May 10, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit
Replies: 32
Views: 5944

Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit

Small things keep filtering back into my memory after returning from Omaha. One thing that got Mr. Buffet really "riled" and Charlie too was this thing called "ebit". A person was asking a question about it and it was the one time during the whole 14 hour day.. I think he nearly lost his composure. I vaguely thought Mr. Buffet got up and was on his feet talking about it. I am not sure what it even means.. but he said a lot of things in haste and was really "angry" seeming.. one of them said "it should be illegal". And Mr. Buffet said he should write more extensively about it and put it in next years shareholders letter. He said they are teaching it in business school and again they both nearly fell ou...
by jwillis77373
Mon May 08, 2017 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett/IBM
Replies: 73
Views: 9139

Re: Buffett/IBM

I agree with the idea that if Mr. Buffet's opinion carries weight, why not own his stock instead of IBM stock? As to what he thought.. I was at the meeting for the Berkshire Hathaway stockholders this year. He was very apologetic, he got out in front of the question and acknowledged it was a bad decision to invest in IBM. He didn't go into his analysis that led to the decision, he very simply said "compared to the SP500 in the same six year time frame, IBM had peformed very poorly and he regretted the investment". From this and later discussions he uses the SP500 has his benchmark for almost everything. Its a standard yardstick to him. He said he wasn't talked into the investment, he "initiated it". So I consider that he...
by jwillis77373
Sun May 07, 2017 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Live Stream Replay
Replies: 26
Views: 3294

Re: Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Live Streaming Today (5/6)

Just packing up to leave. After a little sleep had one more insightful impression to share. Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger spent a good deal of time sharing at different times, you can't repeat their luck, they can't repeat their luck. It would be impossible. You can look at that and dismiss it as humility, and I think a lot of people who came were hoping to "learn how to be successful". But its a stockholders meeting, it was an event with a lot of opportunity to learn about and connect with the businesses held by the company, but it really wasn't a "How to be like Warren Buffet" training ground for future Billionaires. There were money managers, stock brokers, people from far away countries.. many who seemed to look u...
by jwillis77373
Sat May 06, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Live Stream Replay
Replies: 26
Views: 3294

Re: Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Live Streaming Today (5/6)

Miriam2 wrote:
jwillis77373 wrote:I thoroughly enjoyed it.. I was quite sleepy by 10 am, but he kept hitting "nerves" with Topics that "Jolted" me awake like someone hit me with a heavy duty cattle prod. So I stayed awake the whole day.
I'm sure glad you stayed awake to listen, even stayed awake to give your wonderful report here, and that you didn't need that heavy duty cattle prod :D
Let me tell you.. Warren wields a wickedly sharp cattle prod! :shock:

Funniest bit.. Charlie quoted Warren, when asked what he wanted them to say at his funeral --

"that's the oldest looking corpse I've ever seen.."

Meaning.. Warren hopes to live a long long time.. and have a lifetime [After] Berkshire Hathaway.
by jwillis77373
Sat May 06, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Live Stream Replay
Replies: 26
Views: 3294

Re: Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Live Streaming Today (5/6)

I will have to watch the Livestream to see what they released. I was there at Century Link Center from 3 am to 5 pm. It was quite a firehouse of investing history, advice, tribute and Berkshire Hathaway business meeting, with quite a few tourists who I don't think have an intrinsic interest in the company than to attend the meeting. I thoroughly enjoyed it.. I was quite sleepy by 10 am, but he kept hitting "nerves" with Topics that "Jolted" me awake like someone hit me with a heavy duty cattle prod. So I stayed awake the whole day. A little advice if you ever attend, the day before is the Shareholder shopping spree day in town, with many many events around town. The Exhibits hall is open the day before. But after the rea...
by jwillis77373
Sat May 06, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Live Stream Replay
Replies: 26
Views: 3294

Re: Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Live Streaming Today (5/6)

Jack sure didn't mince words about ETFs.

If last year was the Clearing of The Air about he felt about whether foreign was diversifying or speculation.. amd whether he said it was good or bad.

This year he is setting the record straight about whether he feels ETFs were good or bad or dangerous.

He's getting a bit more direct and plain.. good bad dangerous.
by jwillis77373
Sat May 06, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Live Stream Replay
Replies: 26
Views: 3294

Re: Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Live Streaming Today (5/6)

He said the BoA warrants were the result of an idea that came to him while "in the bathtub." Whether that turns out to be a good idea will not be known until they make the decision to convert the options into common stock.. if they ever do. The best time to make the deciscion will come right before they expire sometime in 2020 something.

He then said he either needs to get a better bathtub or a better market.

I think that came as a result of lamenting there are so few moves he can make these days of any significance to the overall stock value.

gotta run starting meeting now
by jwillis77373
Sat May 06, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Live Stream Replay
Replies: 26
Views: 3294

Re: Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Live Streaming Today (5/6)

Warren Buffet spent a lot of time on the SP500 question, being here the reason it comes out cryptic might be the audience

He is polite and plays to the audience, a large Asian Chinese fandom is here.. he doesnt say it too plainly but. intimated China is very young

Its not the same as the US stock market.. it has great potential.. it is very cheap.. it will be important.. someday.

The subtext is the SP500 is serious grown up investing by a proven method. I think he said Algorithm, that is hard to beat.

So I think he is in complete agreement with Jack foreign investment is not diversification but speculation at this point in history.

I though foreign markets roughly equal until now, now I think them quite immature.
by jwillis77373
Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks, Huh? May I Suggest You Read This Thread
Replies: 55
Views: 10239

Re: 100% Stocks, Huh? May I Suggest You Read This Thread

The problem with basing an investment strategy on what we "know" is "what we don't know". Anyone can construct a strategy based on the Past, [if all variables are held constant, if history repeats or at least rhymes] but even those assumptions make the mistake of "predicting" we know more than "we know". Fact is History is being manipulated by the observers in everyway imagined, fashionable and unfashionable. When we are confronted by the realities of the present.. we look to the Past.. and often repeat the same mistakes.. confidently [and] faithfully. What we can predict are taxes and savings, we know what we spend vs what we save.. we know when we reset our quality of living thermostat.. or indulge....
by jwillis77373
Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOGLEHEADS 15 VIDEOS
Replies: 12
Views: 3956

Re: BOGLEHEADS 15 VIDEOS

Awesome
by jwillis77373
Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]
Replies: 53
Views: 10696

Re: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]

The wiki has been updated: Bogleheads® Conferences - Bogleheads (Bogleheads® 15 - Philadelphia) jwillis77373 - I didn't realize that was a panoramic camera. When you get around to posting the video, please bump the thread to let everyone know your Facebook page has been updated. (At the conference, we discussed a few things to watch for when editing.) I had my cell phone and did a couple panoramas, then the tall one was wide lens focused on the stage. I will let you know when more are posted.. if any are a problem.. just let me know. They are fairly low resolution.. but if they are still too high resolution I can take them down. I also don't know if maybe.. do you think a vetting process would be safer? Like pre-posting someplace where spe...
by jwillis77373
Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]
Replies: 53
Views: 10696

Re: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]

Dan999 wrote:I also live in the dark ages and do not have a facebook account, so I amwith Lady Geek on this request, when you get it ready.
Dan999
Dan999

I created more than one Pages by accident and had to wait until I got home to sort out the proper link to the one I'm updating.

Here it is:
https://www.facebook.com/BH-Conference- ... 883681761/

There will be more content as time passes this weekend, I am easing back into regular life after the trip.. responsibilities pile up.
by jwillis77373
Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]
Replies: 53
Views: 10696

Re: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]

prudent wrote:Enjoyed your FB wrapup, jwillis77373.

I had no idea that the gathering is so large. I had thought it was a few dozen people.
So did I.

I was vaguely aware of the first one and did not go.. but Time flys.. its [been allowed] to grow to a couple hundred.. with a tight cap.

If you get a chance to go [Do It! ] and sign up [ Uber Fast...lol ] because the chance will pass quickly.

Quite simply everyone who wants to go.. wants to be there.. and most know what to expect. They do make an effort to include "First Time Attendees" and I was one this time. But there is a hard cap they keep.
by jwillis77373
Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]
Replies: 53
Views: 10696

Re: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]

I created a personal Facebook page : BH Conference Trip 2016 Its pics and notes from my personal perspective attending the conference. It is a work in progress since I am editing it inbeween connecting flights to get home. Nothing offical or represenative from anyone but myself. I wil happily edit to remove anything anyone finds not in the best interests of the Bogleheads. I did take video but its a new invention so I am uncertain of the quality. It was taken with a wide field Mevo but it was not livestreamed. Those should be available from the FB page later this weekend if no on objects. The group has a long term team of official Photographer and Videographer and they are far more professional.. my efforts are much more amatuerish.. so th...
by jwillis77373
Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]
Replies: 53
Views: 10696

Re: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]

Jack Bogle Sounds Off: 10 Provocative New Pronouncements from the Legendary Founder of Vanguard Listening to Vanguard founder Jack Bogle speak is one of the highlights of the annual gathering of the Bogleheads investor community, dedicated to Bogle’s principles of simple, low-cost investing. And talk the 87-year-old former Vanguard chairman did, per usual, at the latest gathering held in Philadelphia this week, appearing on stage for a combined three hours of prepared remarks and Q&A. Here are highlights of his comments on 10 topics of interest to individual investors... That's a very good Article at Money Magazine. I can vouch for the fact Karen was there and attended every session. She took copious notes and had quite a background in...
by jwillis77373
Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]
Replies: 53
Views: 10696

Re: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]

Here is a direct link

BH Conference Trip 2016

facebook direct link follows:

https://www.facebook.com/BH-Conference- ... 883681761/

"Fixed the direct link above -^ "

I'm still learning Pages in facebook and its my rather clumbsy attempt.. we all have to start somewhere.
by jwillis77373
Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]
Replies: 53
Views: 10696

Re: [2016 Bogleheads 15 Conference Report]

I created a personal Facebook page : BH Conference Trip 2016 Its pics and notes from my personal perspective attending the conference. It is a work in progress since I am editing it inbeween connecting flights to get home. Nothing offical or represenative from anyone but myself. I wil happily edit to remove anything anyone finds not in the best interests of the Bogleheads. I did take video but its a new invention so I am uncertain of the quality. It was taken with a wide field Mevo but it was not livestreamed. Those should be available from the FB page later this weekend if no on objects. The group has a long term team of official Photographer and Videographer and they are far more professional.. my efforts are much more amatuerish.. so the...
by jwillis77373
Sat Sep 24, 2016 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facing Up to low yielding world
Replies: 11
Views: 3649

Re: Facing Up to low yielding world

soboggled wrote:It may be a low yielding world, but it is also a low inflation world. See any connection? Can't expect much when inflation is running under 2%.
Last 7 years %: -.4, 1.6, 3.2, 2.1, 1.5, 1.7. It hasn't topped 4% in 25 years.
Consumer indigestion?

.. I jest
by jwillis77373
Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help understanding the attraction to W & W [Wellington/Wellesley]
Replies: 38
Views: 7066

Re: Help understanding the attraction to W & W [Wellington/Wellesley]

nisiprius wrote:Yeah, right. Especially the symphony.
Deriving growth is boring, deriving a "bubble" is exciting.
by jwillis77373
Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "In Defense of Bonds"
Replies: 35
Views: 7187

Re: "In Defense of Bonds"

Thanks, a good read.

I wonder however if 100% Stocks is the same thing as 100% Total Market?

A single stock can liquidate itself out of existence... hence the risk of the former.

I would assume the human race would have to liquidate itself out of existence.. hence the risk of the latter.

Neither are impossible events.. though you would have the advantage of not dealing with the consequences with the latter.
by jwillis77373
Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Bank Balance better predictor of happiness than Total Wealth
Replies: 43
Views: 9343

Re: WSJ: Bank Balance better predictor of happiness than Total Wealth

Funny study..

I tend to think the opposite.

The more accessible the money.. the more likely it will find an emergency or excuse to be gone sooner than later.
by jwillis77373
Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facing Up to low yielding world
Replies: 11
Views: 3649

Re: Facing Up to low yielding world

Any returns are fine.. I'll accept keeping up with expense ratios, transaction fees (in and out), inflation and taxes.

its better than a CD.
by jwillis77373
Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help understanding the attraction to W & W [Wellington/Wellesley]
Replies: 38
Views: 7066

Re: Help understanding the attraction to W & W [Wellington/Wellesley]

I think their attractiveness is their past 'Luck'.

People like to be buy into 'Lucky' funds and explain 'Logically' why it wasn't luck at all.

It makes them appear smarter.

It may cost them in the long run, but at least they got the short-term ego boost.
by jwillis77373
Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bogleheads Bucket?
Replies: 143
Views: 18049

Re: Do Bogleheads Bucket?

A "true" Boglehead.. would "ignore the noise".. and focus on things they could control. Getting all emotional and "clairvoyant" at the worst possible time in history is an exercise in foolishness. Would A BH Rebalance? maybe.. but that would be something they could control. Tax Loss harvest? maybe.. but that would be something they could control. Take a regular RMD? absolutely.. because that would something they could control. Trying to "Predict" the future.. is market timing.. plain and simple.. and that is not something they can control. Its really not what BH investing is about. BH investing is about.. everything they can control. Go ahead an "call" a Bucket strategy an "Asset Alloca...
by jwillis77373
Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle tilts toward Value in his own portfolio
Replies: 34
Views: 6297

Re: Bogle tilts toward Value in his own portfolio

Da5id wrote:
jwillis77373 wrote: if your lucky? maybe 4%.. that means 96% of your retirement will be whatever you put into your retirement.
Most of what you say makes sense of sorts, but that does not. For those who save over a large number of years, most of your retirement fund comes from compounded growth, not contributions...
That would be a pleasant surprise!

Emergencies have a way of cropping up however.
by jwillis77373
Tue Sep 20, 2016 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle tilts toward Value in his own portfolio
Replies: 34
Views: 6297

Re: Bogle tilts toward Value in his own portfolio

I think some people look upon "investing" as a Profession they can jump into and change their fortunes, or erase their status in life.. or look upon it as a "Gold Rush".. that fools simply leave laying on the side of the road and aren't smart enough to pick up.. if only.. "if only I had { Seen ] that one article in Forbes or Investors Weekly.. or, heard that whisper from the Executive at Goldman Sachs.." I'd win the Lottery and be a Billionaire!!! Climb down off your dreams of a Pile of cash.. or Gold.. or Diamond.. get "real" people. Stocks are not a "Lottery" Investing isn't a game of Musical Chairs.. If your "lucky" and steer clear of the Alligators lying in wait all around you....
by jwillis77373
Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall St. Nuclear Meltdown
Replies: 62
Views: 12450

Re: Wall St. Nuclear Meltdown

nisiprius wrote:Maybe it's a typo for "Unclear Meltdown."
As opposed to NewClear or OldClear?

This time its Clear?
by jwillis77373
Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall St. Nuclear Meltdown
Replies: 62
Views: 12450

Re: Wall St. Nuclear Meltdown

I wish Vanguard had a [ Quant Feature ]

If the market drops (for any reason) over a settable percentage, my accounts are automatically locked for 30 days

No peaking, no transaction.. nada

An enhancement would be the younger I am the longer the lock-down, the older I get, the shorter the lock-down

Call it.. the Volatility.. "Dampenator"
by jwillis77373
Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall St. Nuclear Meltdown
Replies: 62
Views: 12450

Re: Wall St. Nuclear Meltdown

If you [invert] the percent down and think of it as a Stock Sale !.. meh.. not much of a sale.. actually kinda puny.
by jwillis77373
Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Bloomberg 9-9-16
Replies: 15
Views: 2749

Re: Jack Bogle on Bloomberg 9-9-16

Message keeps getting simpler and simpler.

Costs still matter. At 2% GDP + 4% Dividends and (No) growth in Price due to Stocks being over priced. Over last 25 years... 6% is it, if you [spend] any of that on Active Management Services.. or the Fees for jumping into and out of the market randomly timing the market.. you will end up with nothing.

Individual Investors shouldn't be in hedge funds. Period. "Let me be plain.. he said.."

Japan and Europe (the Best of Foreign markets) have not historically and are not doing as well as the US, so why bother? There's only Loss to be had.

ETFs ?

A Traders dream.. for generating Fees.. a loss for the Individual Investor.
by jwillis77373
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ["Wells Fargo Fined for Years of Harm to Customers"]
Replies: 129
Views: 15779

Re: ["Wells Fargo Fined for Years of Harm to Customers"]

I am a Wells Fargo customer.

And I am still just in a state of shock.

I deliberately maintain a low balance on principal, never trust anyone entirely.

But this gets under my skin.. way under.. its beyond dollars and cents.. they assumed customers identities.

They took LEGAL Action on customers behalf.. it bugs me in a way.. I .. I can't describe how bad.

It makes me mad in a way.. I've never sued anyone.. I both want to run away.. and sue them.. just to have it on record.

This is NOT Okay.
by jwillis77373
Fri Sep 09, 2016 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ["Wells Fargo Fined for Years of Harm to Customers"]
Replies: 129
Views: 15779

Re: ["Wells Fargo Fined for Years of Harm to Customers"]

In less "polite" terms Wells Fargo systematically taught its employees to comitt Identity Theft and aided and abetted that Theft I guess people would be more upset if they took out Mortgages for Customers without their knowledge? Maybe the 2008 Crisis had an upside.. they weren't so brazenly encouraged.. yet.. to go that far Still.. at 14% or 18% + Libor .. on simply Fees on cards.. compounded annually.. on a Credit Card, attached with all your Financial data, that you didn't know about.. out there in the World.. unmonitored by you.. that could be stolen by a Cyber gang on Paypal or someplace and then run up even higher.. and then the wreck it could do to a Credit Rating.. driving someone into banruptcy.. or used to steal someones...
by jwillis77373
Fri Sep 09, 2016 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ["Wells Fargo Fined for Years of Harm to Customers"]
Replies: 129
Views: 15779

Re: ["Wells Fargo Fined for Years of Harm to Customers"]

I think its "missed" the Bank was also defrauded by its own employees. This is closer to embezzlement by employees of the bank. Not only did customers loose money, so did the bank.. and the bank must now pay penalties.. which will be passed on through as add-on costs to the current and future customers. The "winners" are the employees being asked to leave.. or who have already left through attrition.. and won't be prosecuted or held accountable. The "winners" are the bank executives who "allowed" this to proceed for so many years unchecked.. and who can quietly leave or retire with a perfect record for managing their "untrustworthy" employees.. whom they guided into comitting fraud. 5000+ pe...
by jwillis77373
Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Your Portfolio Needs Plenty of Stocks, Whatever Your Age (NY Times)
Replies: 25
Views: 6364

Re: Why Your Portfolio Needs Plenty of Stocks, Whatever Your Age (NY Times)

Bond funds just seems too Wibbly Wobbly to me.

Short term stock by any other name, without any of the advantages.

Plus your profits are distributed across all of the bond holders and managers involved.. sound familar?

Let's hope the Bond Fund managers have your best interests at heart.
by jwillis77373
Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of series on how frequency of checking values can impact returns
Replies: 22
Views: 4237

Re: Part 2 of series on how frequency of checking values can impact returns

One advantage of being a Boglehead, is being lazy.. or taking a loong investor vacation.

I'm fully vested in that philosophy.
by jwillis77373
Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Fed goes Negative, do Treasuries lose their Initial cost of investment??
Replies: 16
Views: 2927

Re: If Fed goes Negative, do Treasuries lose their Initial cost of investment??

tfb wrote:
jwillis77373 wrote:That begins to sound like a Credit Card charge to me.. where they can reset the interest rate and effectively the 'Original' purchase price of all those purchases made before the interest rate reset.
It doesn't. It actually increases the value of all previously bought Treasury notes.
I'm not sure of your math.. but if what you say is true.

it seems to make buying Treasuries after the lower interest rate is set.. to be a bad decision, only the previous purchasers could benefit

but the original purchases would be paid back in dollars worth even less than what they made the original purchase with on top of inflation
by jwillis77373
Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Fed goes Negative, do Treasuries lose their Initial cost of investment??
Replies: 16
Views: 2927

If Fed goes Negative, do Treasuries lose their Initial cost of investment??

I've been bond adverse for some time, because I think the bond market is being artificially manipulated. But I read this today: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-janet-yellen-mulls-negative-interest-rates-183711629.html And I was wondering, if the Fed sets interest rates "below" Zero does that mean it will actually remove even the Inflation advantage of holding a Treasury note.. in effect Costing real capital and making Cash a better investment (even with Inflationary loss)? That begins to sound like a Credit Card charge to me.. where they can reset the interest rate and effectively the 'Original' purchase price of all those purchases made before the interest rate reset. I guess it appears they found a way to Tax Treasuries.. bri...