Search found 1358 matches

by Manbaerpig
Sun Mar 27, 2016 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Housing Prices Trajectory in the Bay Area?
Replies: 77
Views: 9793

Re: Thoughts on Housing Prices Trajectory in the Bay Area?

"Never happened" is pretty much part of the definition of a black swan, and I'm thinking it's a black swan like this that may be the most likely event that could have a significant negative impact real estate prices in the Bay Area. Also, it has happened--in 1906: 90% of the damage in SF from that ...
by Manbaerpig
Fri Jan 15, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 282
Views: 53050

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Lol at this thread. Emerging is cyclical. I'm sure all the issues I'm China will magically resolve themselves real soon
by Manbaerpig
Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Fidelity drops AmEx, Bank of America credit cards]
Replies: 289
Views: 48166

Re: [Fidelity drops AmEx, Bank of America credit cards]

I have the current Fidelity Visa Signature card, which provides 1.5% cash back to a Fidelity account. I wanted to find out 1) if my 1.5% rewards would change to 2%, and 2) when that would happen. I just called the number listed on the new Fidelity card advertisement page at Fidelity's website. I wa...
by Manbaerpig
Sun Jan 03, 2016 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM
Replies: 179
Views: 20828

Re: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM

Am I the only one finding it particularly easy to invest in em/int given that U.S. Markets were flat-ish all year? Eg zero sector envy, I'm sure I'd be singing a different tune if the s&p were up say 5%+ on the year... Int just seems like a value proposition to me (em always scares me ofc), esp give...
by Manbaerpig
Sun Jul 05, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market
Replies: 41
Views: 6907

Re: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market

+124% YTD then a 24% drop? Why are we supposed to panic, exactly?
by Manbaerpig
Sat Jun 13, 2015 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employer Company Stock Purchase Programs
Replies: 14
Views: 1691

Re: Employer Company Stock Purchase Programs

How about a option 3.5? Hold just long enough to sell at long term cap gains rates vs marginal income taxes (12 months and a day) Where appropriate use a few puts to protect your gains for 12 months. You may want to ask your employer for their policy on such an activity (can obviously be frowned upon)
by Manbaerpig
Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6632
Views: 1431642

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

the chances of another recession out there somewhere is always 100%

determining when that might happen to be [and when it will be reflected in equity pricing] are two additional problem areas
by Manbaerpig
Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 439
Views: 83268

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios is live

I'm really conflicted here. I love the look of their ~70/30 portfolio which has around ~8% cash if I consider the 8% to return approx 3%/APY/long-term bond-type yields its around 20-25 basis points of 'fee' If I consider it part of the overall portfolio's ~6% nominal expected return then it's closer...
by Manbaerpig
Tue Mar 10, 2015 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your definition on Working and Retired?
Replies: 24
Views: 2432

Re: What's your definition on Working and Retired?

Perhaps you find the term 'financially independent ' more agreeable?

The rest of your scenarios seem like you're conflating issues with respect to self-employment
by Manbaerpig
Mon Mar 09, 2015 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 439
Views: 83268

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios is live

I was also able to find an allocation around 6% cash, will edit this post with more details when I finally get through the wizard(s)... edit: acting kinda like Obamacare in the first ~12 months or so w/signup problems. Stalled out in processing "please try again later" incidentally my employer ESPP ...
by Manbaerpig
Thu Mar 05, 2015 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Good career for woman mid 30's?
Replies: 34
Views: 5311

Re: Good career for woman mid 30's?

Go for a PA [physicians assistant], my $0.01

great combo of a career where you would [likely, not sure] be embraced/welcomed [women in healthcare with less than median english skills]

major $$$
stable career, earning potential
freedom of schedule
benefits in favor of motherhood
by Manbaerpig
Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?
Replies: 452
Views: 104057

Re: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?

relevance? http://www.jdroth.com/photos/FINCON-mrmoneymustache.jpg *also on a sidenote: MMM has said TIME and TIME again that he doesn't subscribe to the concept of "retirement" as "not working/earning income of any sort" AT ALL. EVER. Read closer if you guys think he is saying anything about a 4% S...
by Manbaerpig
Mon Mar 02, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Invest in Gold
Replies: 70
Views: 9377

Re: How to Invest in Gold

I still say my admin-removed comments about the personal storing of gold coins in "natures pocket" [and the size requirements thereto] are quite relevant :D
by Manbaerpig
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Invest in Gold
Replies: 70
Views: 9377

Re: How to Invest in Gold

Do I get to be one of the first [only?] people/person to answer this fine Q? *disclaimer I am a coin collector I am presently enamored with pre-1933 circulated US gold coins, and [duh] the $20 St. Gaudens You pay a numismatic premium, so most bogleheads will throw this option out. It's something lik...
by Manbaerpig
Wed Feb 25, 2015 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help! Ive been put on a performance improvement plan!
Replies: 66
Views: 18115

Re: Help! Ive been put on a performance improvement plan!

good luck OP but phone+laptop confiscated means they are ACTUALLY finding something on those devices to uncover some mess that has occured for which they are blaming you already. You're beyond fired Sounds like the best course is a stiff drink, chin up, and on to the next job. I'm sure it will be be...
by Manbaerpig
Sat Feb 21, 2015 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 439
Views: 83268

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio Details

Thanks for the link! Will read, first thoughts:7% dedicated to cash seems like a tiny price to pay and offers a nice side benefit as well (stability/reserve), I guess there's no free lunch *reading Edit: no mention of automatic/daily tax loss harvesting? I think every robovisor has something everyon...
by Manbaerpig
Fri Jan 30, 2015 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Employer 401k w/Fidelity
Replies: 8
Views: 1164

Re: New Employer 401k w/Fidelity

100% " SPTN 500 INDEX ADV (FUSVX) 02/17/1988" 0.07% outside of this 401k perhaps you can look at your spouses 401k for a bond fund or either of your Roth's to balance the entire portfolio appropriately with your AA assuming you're targetting 60/40 ish CN: you have (1) good fund in your 401k, so will...
by Manbaerpig
Wed Jan 28, 2015 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront automated investment service
Replies: 19
Views: 2999

Re: Wealthfront automated investment service

I though the elephant in the room here is automated daily tax loss harvesting, which is expected to generate some tax alpha in taxable accounts. Agreed with the posters that suggest just using vanguard and a spreadsheet is probably superior where this level of finesse is not required (eg tax advanta...
by Manbaerpig
Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chat with Vanguard: robo-advisers and site enhancements
Replies: 20
Views: 4896

Re: Chat with Vanguard: robo-advisers and site enhancements

great link, I wonder how to quantify the bid/spread in say schwab's ETFs which I understand have substantially lower volume than say...vanguards also fwiw: the part I'm getting excited about is the reference ~.3/.4% long term TL alpha with a tax rate arbitrage kicker [no way will I be in this tax br...
by Manbaerpig
Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capital Gains help
Replies: 25
Views: 2200

Re: Capital Gains help

it's precisely the opposite but a more nuanced calculation and very personal in nature , occasionally, it may make sense to 'take' capital gains before something historic happens. Like LT cap gains rate moving from 15% to 28% these are the types of posts however that I think tend to get locked, apol...
by Manbaerpig
Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chat with Vanguard: robo-advisers and site enhancements
Replies: 20
Views: 4896

Re: Chat with Vanguard: robo-advisers and site enhancements

for some its the ULTIMATE lazy portfolio and a quest for tax-alpha. What could possibly go wrong :D


https://www.wealthfront.com/tax-loss-harvesting
by Manbaerpig
Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking advantage of the Euro's decline
Replies: 8
Views: 1093

Re: Taking advantage of the Euro's decline

I think the subtlest move of all is to tilt a little in the foreign index funds :D [although I'll be honest I'm not sure to what degree currency arbitrage plays a role in the NAV, probably some non-zero factor]
by Manbaerpig
Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Suze Orman: $100 into $860k, and cfiresim
Replies: 47
Views: 8506

Re: Suze Orman: $100 into $860k, and cfiresim

I think it's like an arms race... who wants to be the advisor that offers that their gains will be 'less' than the other guy? sort of like how tax return products are marketed [xyz corp got me $14,000!!!]
by Manbaerpig
Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 439
Views: 83268

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios

I'd be worried by the frequent capital gain if it was to rebalance so frequently I believe the whole 'point' of the robo-advisor [schwab] in this case is actually to go for a realized loss [or enough regular deposits/dividends] vs a cap gain. The main selling point [imho] is the daily tax loss harv...
by Manbaerpig
Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chat with Vanguard: robo-advisers and site enhancements
Replies: 20
Views: 4896

Re: Chat with Vanguard: robo-advisers and site enhancements

personally I can't WAIT for schwab to launch the intelligent portfolio service the automated/daily tax loss harvesting service is the main attractor. [obviously in taxable space only] I'm SUPER excited to not have to stress/worry about sub-optimal manual TLH [eg swap to similar asset...wait 30 days....
by Manbaerpig
Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Suze Orman: $100 into $860k, and cfiresim
Replies: 47
Views: 8506

Re: Suze Orman: $100 into $860k, and cfiresim

what about the cost in career capital for the often-correlated to 'bring-home-from-lunch-guy' tends to also be 'eat-by-himself' guy who is then seen as less sociable who is then less likely to be promoted /less likely to receive raises/etc to some degree?
by Manbaerpig
Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capital Gains help
Replies: 25
Views: 2200

Re: Capital Gains help

also the oval office is floating a rise in the capital gains tax [doesnt look like theres a good chance of it passing], so I wouldnt worry about it but of course thats another scenario to keep in mind.

tax-gain harvesting may be prudent if we do actually return to the reagan era rates
by Manbaerpig
Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:42 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: how to delete account?
Replies: 0
Views: 851

how to delete account?

thank you, alternatively: please delete this account
by Manbaerpig
Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ron Paul's portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 3493

Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

I assume it's 0.1% of his portfolio (or less) in that double-inverse fund... say he's worth $5m... we're talking about $5k here, tops... most here advocate "do watcha like" with up to ~5%.... this is 1/50 of that amount (to him)... also if he's been in gold since "at least 2002", who is laughing now...
by Manbaerpig
Wed Dec 21, 2011 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If I buy gold, what should I buy?
Replies: 50
Views: 8976

Re: If I buy gold, what should I buy?

Do i understand you right? Lets say you buy a gold one ounce piece, have it shipped. you pay 5 percent over spot. stipulate spot remains unchanged. You sell it back to them, what exactly is the 3 percent? I would assume that the 3 percent would be 3 percent under spot? That the total loss of such a...
by Manbaerpig
Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early Retirement Extreme, No Longer Retired
Replies: 60
Views: 8506

Re: Early Retirement Extreme, No Longer Retired

If you live in a van down by the river you're not early retired, you're a bum living in a van
by Manbaerpig
Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ron Paul's portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 3493

Re: Ron Paul's portfolio

[uncouth personal attack removed by Mod]


poking fun at the popular perception of Ron Paul is anything but

edited by mbp
by Manbaerpig
Wed Dec 21, 2011 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Torn on whether or not to refi 30yr to 15yr
Replies: 26
Views: 2629

Re: Torn on whether or not to refi 30yr to 15yr

I had luck with first indiana bank, others here have too...


www.firstib.com
by Manbaerpig
Wed Dec 21, 2011 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why do companies offer benefits but conceal them?
Replies: 30
Views: 3293

Re: Why do companies offer benefits but conceal them?

also some companies make the re-imbursement/application process for said benefit either recurring or incredibly painful expecting that many will not put up with the torture example: billing internet, phone, gym, other small recurring expenses monthly through a painful cost accounting process (these ...
by Manbaerpig
Wed Dec 21, 2011 1:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Torn on whether or not to refi 30yr to 15yr
Replies: 26
Views: 2629

Re: Torn on whether or not to refi 30yr to 15yr

15 sounds affordable to you: though see if you can do better than a 3.5/no-cost, last I looked you should be able to get under that... but maybe it's a LTV issue :beer
by Manbaerpig
Wed Dec 21, 2011 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A "Thumbs Up" for Vanguard
Replies: 2
Views: 670

Re: A "Thumbs Up" for Vanguard

you can't just electronically do the transfer through an online wizard or something?
by Manbaerpig
Wed Dec 21, 2011 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: instant $10,000
Replies: 6
Views: 1200

Re: instant $10,000

The "normal" rule as far as I can tell is to spend some, save some, invest some

in your case, I would suggest beefing up the emergency fund (say 1/3, save some), spend a little (1/3 ?), and rather than investing some, pay down the debt with 1/3

:sharebeer
by Manbaerpig
Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Unmatched 401k vs taxable savings
Replies: 11
Views: 1508

Re: Unmatched 401k vs taxable savings

hard to answer until we get a better picture of your expenses/budget/income/pension/annuities/* from now until age 70


I'm shaking my crystal ball and it says you don't need the $$ until age 70, so based on that put it in your 401k :beer
by Manbaerpig
Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Owning a used jalopy: Same cost as leasing brand car.
Replies: 132
Views: 8946

Re: Owning a used jalopy: Same cost as leasing brand car.

actually no, other than a $75 or so lease origination fee for the paperwork, leasing is identical and the 'money factor' follows predicted depreciation precisely. the only way to lose with a lease is to go somewhat under (or over) on the stated miles for your lease, or if depreciation isn't quite so...
by Manbaerpig
Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What song describes your life?
Replies: 67
Views: 4417

Re: What song describes your life?

pink floyd: wish you were here So, so you think you can tell Heaven from Hell, Blue sky's from pain. Can you tell a green field From a cold steel rail? A smile from a veil? Do you think you can tell? And did they get you to trade Your heroes for ghosts? Hot ashes for trees? Hot air for a cool breeze...
by Manbaerpig
Mon Dec 19, 2011 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 10 Errors to Avoid When Refinancing
Replies: 24
Views: 3102

Re: 10 Errors to Avoid When Refinancing

I can't be the only one who is thinking of refinancing solely in it's impact on your networth, with eventual home-ownership-free-and-clear as NOT being the end-all goal or even a variable. I look at the opportunity cost(s) associated with not refinancing to (hopefully) superior term(s) vs keeping th...
by Manbaerpig
Mon Dec 19, 2011 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paper I bonds WILL be available via tax refund in 2012
Replies: 55
Views: 8511

Re: Paper I bonds WILL be available via tax refund in 2012

Epsilon Delta wrote:The only reason to pay estimated taxes before Jan 15th is if it is needed to avoid under-withholding penalties. If you are paying extra in order to get paper I-bonds this deadline does not apply. The IRS will process estimated tax payments made after Jan 15th.

nice :sharebeer
by Manbaerpig
Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hobbies of Bogleheads
Replies: 159
Views: 23361

Re: Hobbies of Bogleheads

Hobbies come and go but here are my current ones: surfing --50+ days a year, + a mandatory yearly trip or 3 to hawaii and somewhere off the beaten path. if the swell is up I'm in santa cruz you can set your watch to it. I'd go more often but I reserve one weekend day to do stuff with the SO :beer mo...
by Manbaerpig
Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest or Pay Down Debt?
Replies: 41
Views: 3328

Re: Invest or Pay Down Debt?

it's also generally speaking 3-10x as large as Roth-potential space in this tax bracket, if you ignore tax-event conversions, and we are talking about $5k here, which is close to noise at this income level imo
by Manbaerpig
Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest or Pay Down Debt?
Replies: 41
Views: 3328

Re: Invest or Pay Down Debt?

either front-door/backdoor $5k a year into a Roth When you are eligible for the 401k, I'd contribute only up to their match In the 28% bracket (+ state) I think it's nuts to prioritize post-tax over pre-tax savings. Unless the 401k is horrific it should come first. my theory is Roth space is awesom...
by Manbaerpig
Mon Dec 19, 2011 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold: direct ownership versus ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 1578

Re: Gold: direct ownership versus ETFs

they get 72% of their investment back? I'd consider that fortunate also, compare this to the expected statistical chance your: a) safe deposit comes up empty b) house and or person get rolled and it is liberated from you c) your government or similar confiscates it etc personally I think the chance ...