Bogleheads.org

Normchad

Recently seeing some kids who seem to have checked most of the boxes, not getting into any decent college . Nope, I don't buy it. I'll bet there's a reason. These days most anyone breathing can get into a Really Mediocre Liberal Arts School if willing to pay the tuition. I agree with you. The idea that all the s hooks are more selective is hogwash. Maybe some are. But there are not enough perfect kids to fill all those seats. A 4.0 doesn’t mean anything now. Nobody cares that your kid played violin and lacrosse. Only a tiny few kids are all that special. Be honest most are average. And lots of them are below average. Not everybody gets to be an astronaut. I’m convinced an average kid with no learning disability, can score in the 85th perce...

Normchad

Back in the 1970s I expect many thought 7.5% historic high yields were the point to go all-in, clearly a exception - only to see yields continue on up to 15%. As were some proclaiming 2% yields to be great times to sell long dated treasuries ... only to subsequently see yields halve down to 1%. Prior peaks/troughs are obvious, whether a present day level is a peak or a trough however is far from obvious, could still go 50:50 either way and the market generally prices to those 50:50 odds. Obviously, you’re correct. That is the BH thing. You don’t know the future. Nobody does. And the people that think jumping on macro economic trends is the way, well they run active funds. And we have the track record to evaluate it. They can’t do it either...

Normchad

Test scores and class ranking matter a lot. Where I live, have the kids graduating high school have a 4.0 or better. Grade inflation is insane. So schools look at class ranking. (I’ve got friends whining their kids have an 1200 SAT and a 4.0 and can’t get accepted. Well yeah, they’re completely mediocre) For test prep, know the differences between theACT and SAT and pick the one that suits you best Buy 1 of those fat test prep books that has 5 full tests in it. Summer between 10th and 11th grade, take those tests. Take the first untuned. After it’s over, look at what you got wrong and brush up on it. Then take the 2nd. Keep doing that. Then take the real test early in 11th grade and get it out of the way. If you get a trash score, you’ve go...

Normchad

Its taken me nearly 60 years to realize this but I first recall this quote from, bizarrely enough, Star Trek - “Someone once told me that time was a predator that stalked us all our lives. I rather believe that time is a companion who goes with us on the journey and reminds us to cherish every moment, because it will never come again. What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived. After all Number One, we're only mortal.” Jean-Luc Picard And you have this famous quote that I either ignored in school or missed. “Its the not the Destination, It's the journey.” ― Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self-Reliance I've reached a few milestones over the last decade and most recently retirement. My last day of work was the end of January and I don...

Normchad

Well, I’ve always done things that align very closely with the BH principles.

I got rich during this period of time. I suspect a lot of us did.

The BH principles don’t guarantee that though.

I really think the best path requires a lot of time and hard work. And frankly, most people won’t do it. So they’ll never get there.

And luck is required. And you can’t control that. But I got lucky a lot. The GFC happening when it did was incredibly lucky for me.

Normchad

If it's abandoned and you'd like someone to burn it down to be able to cheaply remove ashes and minimal burned wooden beams, then sure. Leave it uninsured. Just understand that if the arsonist trips on his way out and is injured, they're going to sue you and win the property, making your entire investment in it become zero. I had a great answer. But this one is so much better. Great answer. Just insure your dang home. I guess another con is that the money you will likely save, is probably completely inconsequential to you. It won’t change your life one bit. Your last sentence could be applied to many (most?) of the discussions on this forum, especially in the personal consumer area! I see the money saved and not given to an insurance compa...

Normchad

I would never trust a child for that responsibility. Wow, I knew my DD was pretty exceptional, she’s been taking care of her cat since she was nine years old. If you want a pet, you have to take care of it. Liter box, canned cat food and grooming. It’s never been a problem… That is fantastic. Are you suggesting that you would be fine having your 9-year-old travel by herself a few homes away and enter another home and go through the process of taking care of other cat(s) and then shutting up that home and returning? I’d let my kid do that. In our state, you’re allowed to babysit other human beings when you’re 12. When I was growing up, it was quite common for kids to do these types of things starting around those ages. $10/day sounds like a...

Normchad

Jack FFR1846 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:44 am If it's abandoned and you'd like someone to burn it down to be able to cheaply remove ashes and minimal burned wooden beams, then sure. Leave it uninsured. Just understand that if the arsonist trips on his way out and is injured, they're going to sue you and win the property, making your entire investment in it become zero.

I had a great answer. But this one is so much better. Great answer. Just insure your dang home.

I guess another con is that the money you will likely save, is probably completely inconsequential to you. It won’t change your life one bit.

Normchad

I have one. I love it. No inconvenienced for me, what so ever.

However, I would never own one if I couldn’t charge at home. Paying to charge away from home is expensive and very inconvenient. I’d just go back to gas.

Normchad

bmurph wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 12:47 pm recommendations for fee based Certified Financial Planner Boston so.shore area

I remember hearing in the forum that Jon Luskin is quite good. I have never interacted with him though……

He is also a poster here.

All the best!

Normchad

Hey, you want a loan. They’re willing to give you one, and telling you what they need from you. Just give it to them.

Normchad

Purdue is well known as a very good engineering and CS school. I’d have no qualms about sending my kid there.

I don’t know much about Pitt.

Normchad

delamer wrote: ↑Wed Mar 22, 2023 8:28 pm Best tool, I can’t say.

But Quicken does a good job for me.

That’s what I use as well. That’s not the reason I use it, but it is nice that it does it for me. Also the portfolio X-ray feature is cool….. https://www.quicken.com/blog/quicken-hi ... mber-2021/

Normchad

labguy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 9:58 pm Seems the return to work has got you flustered. Pre pandemic I assume you weren’t wfh, so can’t the company leverage a more collaborative environment and ask folks to return to the office? I sense this issue has got you pretty tripped up. If you don’t like it leave and find a wfh job, but at your age with a young family I’d vote for more years earning money. No question.

A lot of employers realize that requiring a return to office will cause some people to quit. And they’re totally okay with it. And some are doing it intentionally, seeing it as a quick easy way to reduce headcount.

Normchad

YERER01 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 9:34 pm My former insurance agent once told me that I should switch insurers every now and then to get competitive rates.

Absolutely. And honestly, switching auto insurance companies is easy.

Normchad

rob wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:16 pm I don't see any way this works to be honest....

Yeah, it’s not time to retire yet. It’s certainly time to start looking for a new job though…..

Normchad

I think it’s okay. I personally do it.

Normchad

This is another question for which the ERN SWR toolbox can be very interesting.

In my case, if the future is anything like the past, and I use a 3% SWR, my portfolio will grow a lot. Cutting off the ends of the distribution of final values. It is most likely to grow by a factor of 2X to 4X.

Normchad

The idea of caring is that someone is making money faster [than you are] is one of the deadly sins. Envy is a really stupid sin because it’s the only one you could never possibly have any fun at. There’s a lot of pain and no fun. Why would you want to get on that trolley?

Charlie Munger

Normchad

No one is thinking about you and your finances. This is all in your head. It really depends on your background. In some families, nobody ever owned a home. Always loved in really crap apartments for decades. So going to college, can be taken by them as an affront. Getting too big for your britches. And when you buy that first modest home, they see it and know it. Some truly are happy to see you make it, but some resent it. And then there is the workplace. People move on different trajectories through their careers. And for a group of young people that all start out together at the same place and time, after twenty years, you’ve all reached different levels of success. People change and lifestyles go in different directions. Sometimes there...

Normchad

London wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 8:25 pm No one is thinking about you and your finances. This is all in your head.

It really depends on your background. In some families, nobody ever owned a home. Always loved in really crap apartments for decades.

So going to college, can be taken by them as an affront. Getting too big for your britches. And when you buy that first modest home, they see it and know it. Some truly are happy to see you make it, but some resent it.

And then there is the workplace. People move on different trajectories through their careers. And for a group of young people that all start out together at the same place and time, after twenty years, you’ve all reached different levels of success.

Normchad

AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 8:23 pm
Normchad wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 8:19 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 8:00 pm
YERER01 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 7:52 pm Came to ask for JoeRetire but some other people have asked this before.
He posted 4 hours ago on Reddit/Personal finance as GeorgeRetire. Same avatar and same direct comments. So cheer up!
Great. I feel better now. I’m gonna go look for him!
Me too, I was worried. He was the first one to excoriate me when I joined for not having a big enough net worth at my income.

It worked! It was the tough love I needed.

In my mind, he’s a grumpy retired guy in New Hampshire who makes maple syrup in his spare time. The kind of person that is gruff and prickly, but would do anything to help a neighbor in a pinch.

Normchad

AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 8:00 pm
YERER01 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 7:52 pm Came to ask for JoeRetire but some other people have asked this before.
He posted 4 hours ago on Reddit/Personal finance as GeorgeRetire. Same avatar and same direct comments. So cheer up!

Great. I feel better now. I’m gonna go look for him!

Normchad

Sadly, money is the best way to destroy relationships. And that’s why I fully live by the “keep your mouth shut about money” philosophy. So,I just do not talk about it. ever. People aren’t blind though. They can see signs of things going well. And I don’t believe in hiding things either, I just don’t put them out there. So yeah, I just got a new car. It was expensive. That’s the end of the story. I don’t say I paid cash. I don’t say it wasn’t a stretch. I’m not going to completely suppress or change myself so other people can feel comfortable. I’ve seen what you’re feeling though. A lot of people really resent success. And it can be family members. Or it can be friends. And you’re going to,lose some of those. I guess that’s the big paradox....

Normchad

I have read through the many previous threads and posts on this topic and realize there are strong feelings about it on the Forum. For those who have the stomach to think further about Whole Life policies vs. MYGAs vs. other approaches, I wonder the following: is this scenario (our actual scenario) actually one that fits within the 1% of cases where it *could* in fact make sense to buy a WL policy? Background notes: - I have maxed out and continue to max out all other tax-sheltered opportunities; - I generate more than a hundred thousand dollars per year in free cash flow while covering costs comfortably; - have saved in 529 enough to cover college costs for 2 kids; - still have mortgages but very low cost (2.75%) so I prefer not to pre-pa...

Normchad

Journeyman510 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 6:05 pm
Watty wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 5:53 pm
runner3081 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 5:41 pm ASU for weather and umm, well, parties.
Be sure to Google "ASU graduation rate" when considering the parties.
Ouch. 67%

My recollection is thats a fairly typical 6 year graduation rate for US universities.

https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=40

So why is this so low? I don’t know. One school of thought is that lots of kids don’t finish because school is too expensive. I.e. they run out of money. So if that’s a concern for anybody, they should really focus on value.

And if you have infinite money, you really don’t need to worry about graduation rates, because if your kid puts in the work, they will graduate.

Normchad

I look at networth. The 3 metrics listed are solely focussed on annual spending in retirement. My financial goals include other things, so those measures would miss the mark. +1. Net worth is also the only one I really track. Maybe I am missing something, why do you prefer Net Worth to #1, do you have a lot of real estate (although that can be included in one's portfolio)? I’m a pretty simple guy. I don’t have a ton of real estate. For me, I do think net worth is the single best indicator of overall financial well being. It isn’t perfect, and I don’t think boiling everything down to just 1 number ever can be perfect. But I think it’s the best we can do. I think of it as the equivalent of measuring (Body Mass Index) BMI for physical health....

Normchad

afan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:30 pm I look at networth.
The 3 metrics listed are solely focussed on annual spending in retirement. My financial goals include other things, so those measures would miss the mark.

+1. Net worth is also the only one I really track.

Normchad

MMiroir wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 9:08 pm According to College Scorecard, the median salary for CS majors at OSU is $80,252. At Northeastern, it is $108,000. It seems that because of the co-ops, NEU CS grads make significantly more than OSU CS grads. Whether that is worth an additional year of school and the higher tuition is up to the OP.

It could mean that. Or it could mean that median salaries in Boston are higher than they are in Ohio.

I’d guess that grads from either school, who work the same employers are paid comparably.

Normchad

jpdion wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 1:11 pm When my L2 charger was installed, the electrician had to pull a permit and a county inspector had to inspect and approve the installation.

Yep, that kind of work would require a permit everywhere in the US.

Normchad

A question: I believe I have read Tesla has built many charging stations, and is still building. What number of individual chargers are usually found in a Tesla charging station? Broken Man 1999 I've seen a wide range. At local gas stations (mini-mart chain) I've seen 3-4 at some and over a dozen at others. In my area they are mainly along the routes from CD/Baltimore to the beaches. If it weren't for the beach traffic there would be a lot fewer. Yep. I don’t use them often, it when I do, it seems like there are typically 8 stalls. But I’ve seen pictures of major ones that look to have 30 or so. Tesla cars are always connected to the network. So Tesla has tons of information on where the cars go and what state or charge they are at etc.. t...

Normchad

to add... Charging at home with a 110 outlet would not be viable, in my experience. It would take a Tesla nearly two days to go from 20-80% (roughly calculated) But you don't need to charge it to 80% before using it. Only drivable range matters...and if you average less than ~50 miles per day, you'll never exhaust your range with trickle charging overnight. Even if you periodically diverge to the high side of that...a single visit to a supercharger will replenish your range buffer. You can do a lot of supercharger visits for the cost of a panel upgrade. Yes, a L2 is beneficial...but living with only a trickle charger is quite feasible for a lot of people. I lived with the trickle charger for about 9 months. It was completely fine. But I ha...

Normchad

Add to that, there's other costs such as many EVs go through tires much faster I didn't know this. Why do EVs go through tires faster? They don't use the same type of tires that many passenger cars use because they are very heavy vehicles to begin with and thus the tires wear out faster. They also do more damage to a roadway vs. their ICE cousins. Amazing to me how easily de-bunked anti-EV talking points keep getting repeated. Weight of Tesla Model 3: about 3700 lbs, not much more than the almost identically dimensioned BMW 3 series, at about 3600 lbs. Weight of my 2020 Kia Niro EV: about 3800 lbs, again not much more than the same-size Mazda CX-30, at about 3500 lbs. Yep. It’s total nonsenses. My long range Model 3 weighs less than a Hond...

Normchad

Congratulations on your anniversary and all your success!

I agree that this is the best online community there is. Many thanks to all the posters and the moderators that keep it that way.

Normchad

bulbul wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 7:30 pm My son received admission from Northeastern University and the Ohio State University for Computer Science major. As a Ohio resident, which one is a better choice? Both my wife and me are first generation immigrants, and we did not have any experience in selecting a university in US. Any suggestion or comments will be really appreciated!

Full disclosure, I’ve got a computer engineering degree from UMich.

Go to Ohio State. They have an excellent program with a good reputation. And staying in state should save some money as well.

Normchad

I’m truly curious. For those who have had excellent results with their agent, please share how you found and vetted them. We will be market in about 1 year and would like some direction in finding an agent that is worth their fee. I don’t actually know a fool proof method for finding a great agent. I’ve had one in the past though, and I found them via word of mouth. Something they seem to have in common, is they are experienced and seem to know everybody and everything in your market and target neighborhoods. Here are some of my personal examples. I wanted to buy a new house in late 2009. When people still thought the entire planet financial system might collapse. Everybody said it was hard to get any loans. I’m risk averse, so,I wanted to...

Normchad

I personally think it is worthwhile.

Normchad

I'm curious about how the ERN SWR Toolbox accounts for CAPE. More specifically, what value of Shiller CAPE (or whichever CAPE it uses) is neutral, neither increases nor decreases the calculated SWR. It’s a really cool spreadsheet. It shows you historic success rates based on CAPE. So for example, (and these numbers are made up), you can say you have a 60/40 portfolio then it will show you a table with various withdrawl rates, say from 3% to 5.5% in increments of .25%. Then it has columns for all historic probabilities, probability of cape <20, cape >20, S&P at an all time high. So you might see that your WR had a historic success rate of 80%” but only 70% when CAPE was over 20, for example. There’s more to it than that. But that is my ...

Normchad

I’ve known a few people that officially moved to Florida and establishing residency before selling a business, for just this reason. In one case, the state income tax savings was enough to pay for their new Florida mansion.

Normchad

I just tried using a Canadian pharmacy to buy insulin. Overall, it was great. A 3 month supply that retails in the US for $2,300 was $450.

And since I didn’t use any insurance, it was actually easier and a lot less hassle than I’m used to.

Normchad

Yes, the SS website estimates around 2500 per year for me, and a little less for my wife, definitely have worked past the initial bends. In my calculations I account for about $1000 a month starting at age 75 lol. When using the SS web site, make sure you select the option to assume all future income is $0. It didn’t have that option when I retired and people had to calculate it themselves. Does that matter once you get to the 40 credits and have maxed out Medicare earnings? Your SS benefit is based on your highest 35 years of earnings. So if you don’t have 35 years in there yet, you need to set that zero for future earnings. Otherwise it will compute a PIA for you that you won’t actually get. So it matters. It might not matter enough to c...

Normchad

I’m capable of doing almost anything. When money was tighter, I did everything my self. Plumbing, Electical, automotive, hvac repair, etc.

Honestly, I enjoy a lot of those things. But not all of them.
So now I’m at the point, financially, where if it would piss me off, I’ll hire it out. I have a plumber coming on thursday for a couple of easy jobs. I just don’t want to be bothered with it. It’ll cost me $300-$500 for the plumber. So I’m just paying to avoid the aggravation.

I figure though, over the years, I’ve saved so much money by DIYing everything, this extravagance is okay.

Normchad

I have 4 exterior doors, and I have to replace the doorknobs on two of the doors because the interior doorknob fell off. One is a Mortise lock, Baldwin brand. The other is a doorknob with a push button lock, Uscan brand with Schlage key--I'm disappointed in this one because it was installed by a locksmith eight years ago, and I thought it would last longer. A third door has a U-Bolt smart deadbolt which I've been pretty happy with. A fourth door has a Kwikset deadbolt and lever handle with lock, whose keys do not match the other doors. I have to replace the Mortise lock doorknob and the push button doorknob, and I'm trying to decide the following: 1. Hire a locksmith to replace the two doorknobs and make keys that match the other locks. I'...

Normchad

Ben Mathew wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:08 pm
If we use 1/CAPE as the expected stock return and 20 year TIPS yield as the expected bond return, we get expected real returns of 3.6% for stocks and 1.4% for bonds.

Expected return of a 50/50 portfolio would be 2.5%.

Even if your portfolio grew at 2.5% that rate every year like clockwork, you would run out of money after 27 years. years.

Is this math correct? If he withdraws 5% real per year, and the portfolio grows by 2.5% real per year, wouldn’t the portfolio last 40 years?

Actually, I just whomped the math up, and it looks like you are correct!

Normchad

If it doesn’t work in 20 years you’ll be 56 or so and still able to get some sort of job (drive for Uber, etc). For someone who is 65 withdrawing 5% and 20 years later is 85 they’ll unlikely to have those sorts of work options available. That gives you a margin of safety, not financial but human capital. That is the big difference. He is also talking a low enough spend that the McJob for 1000 hours/year would cover a good chunk of expense and SS is likely to cover like half the expenses towards the end. 5% with no spending cuts(i.e. SS) is going to have something like a 50% success rate for 50 years. You either go that's pretty good or that is horrible. The cost of going from 50% success to 95% is a lot of savings. What a lot of people mis...

Normchad

mega317 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:42 pm
Normchad wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:38 pm
Where I live, my engine air filter basically never gets dirty.
Where is that!?

I live in Virginia. Never drive on dirt roads. No major heavy industries nearby, etc.

I just looked up the recommendation for my one ICE vehicle and their recommendation is 30-45,000 miles. I’m actually shocked that I didn’t see that before.

I do almost all my own car maintenance. And now I just do it once a year. And at that time, I do everything. Oil and filter, engine air filter, and cabin air filter. If it needs brakes, transmission flush, or differential flush, I do those too.

So it looks like I’m changing the engine air filter more frequently than recommended, but it’s cheap and trivially easy.

Normchad

It can depend on where you live and drive. The recommendations don’t know that, so they’re written cover a lot of possible conditions.

Where I live, my engine air filter basically never gets dirty. I change it anyway. But I’m sure if I let it go 50,000 miles it would still be fine.

Normchad

The SWR toolbox is phenomenally good. I’m very surprised it isn’t discuss more in these forums.

All the best!

Normchad

These rules do not apply to your pretax 401Ks. You can have as much money as you want in ta 401k, and it doesn’t impact the backdoor RothIRA process or taxes. Just want to make sure I understand the implications: I have substantial investments in a tIRA. All pre-tax, no after tax contributions. No Roth IRA. I also have a pre-tax 401K with my employer. I understand from your posting that if I tried to make an after-tax contribution to my tIRA, then convert that to a Roth (backdoor Roth contribution), the pro-rata rule would kick in & I'd have to pay tax on the conversion due to the money in my tIRA. But what I want to validate is: 1) If I just do a straight Roth conversion of my tIRA (eg no after-tax contribution), the normal Roth conve...

Normchad

With my old 401k I was thinking of doing: old 401k-> rollover/pretax IRA -> roth IRA for a backdoor Roth. Is there a benefit of rolling it directly into a new 401k instead? You really don’t want to do a backdoor Roth IRA *if* you have any money in a rollover IRA. The reason is that the pro-rata rule will apply, and there will be tax consequences for doing that. Now if you went to the rollover IRA, then moved it all to your 401K, you could be fine depending on the timing of it. I think on the tax forms, it asks about your IRA balance as of 12/31 of the prior year. Aren't the taxes the same if you were to go pre tax 401k -> roth 401k? Can you explain why you shouldn't do a backdoor Roth IRA *if* you have any money in a rollover IRA? My under...

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