Search found 579 matches

by Bill Bernstein
Thu May 28, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 195
Views: 16899

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

There's no right answer, of course. From a strictly mean variance perspective, short corporates nose out short treasuries in a portfolio, at least combining them with the S&P500. But treasuries offer the psychological advantage when things really go down the tubes of not having to take a haircut to ...
by Bill Bernstein
Tue May 19, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9209

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

The reason to avoid China's equity markets can be summarized in one word: dilution. The best estimates are that the Chinese equity markets dilute their share pools on the order of about 20% per year, so even if the country is growing its GDP and corporate profits at slightly less than 10% pa, they c...
by Bill Bernstein
Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS as part of Asset Allocation?
Replies: 41
Views: 2066

Re: SS as part of Asset Allocation?

This one gets asked every year at the conference. Answers: 1) If you do, then you can't also deduct the SS payments from your retirement cash needs. Ie, if your annual expenses + taxes are $70k, and your SS is $30k, you have to make a $70k nut, not a $40k nut. 2) If you don't, then you can; ie, if y...
by Bill Bernstein
Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a new rice cooker from Zojirushi?
Replies: 75
Views: 5763

Re: Should I buy a new rice cooker from Zojirushi?

Don't know about the Zojirushi, but we love our Instantpot for both rice and pasta. Once you've learned how to pressure cook pasta right in the sauce (set the timer for a tad more than half the recommended boiling time at high pressure, and use a very wet sauce) you'll never go back to simply pourin...
by Bill Bernstein
Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New to Linux Ubuntu
Replies: 29
Views: 1512

Re: New to Linux Ubuntu

Exactly: Linux is free if your time is worth nothing. If you enjoy tinkering with systems and constantly reinstalling OSs, linux is great. Happens to be my cup of tea, and I can't imagine going back to slow, clunky Windows, but you had better enjoy that sort of thing. Printer-wise, HP and brother ar...
by Bill Bernstein
Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 786
Views: 179240

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Yes, since end-Dec 1999, gold has returned 9.17%, handily beating both stocks and bonds (around 5% each). That's for two reasons: the price of gold end-Dec 1999 was $288, close to the historical low for that period, and end-Dec 1999 was about the worst starting point one could pick for stocks. But s...
by Bill Bernstein
Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?
Replies: 161
Views: 14787

Re: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?

It all depends on your psychological makeup. If you're Spock-like, then TBM, or short-term BM, is just fine. It's mostly governments, so you won't get nailed too badly by its credit risk, and when that happens in very, very bad states of the world, you won't mind. If you're not Spock-like, then ther...
by Bill Bernstein
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson
Replies: 75
Views: 10906

Re: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson

You don't rebalance an LMP so much as let it slowly shrink as you age, for obvious reasons, which leads you to the same place: the reverse glide slope of Pfau/Kitces. And I certainly plead guilty to industrial quantities of mental accounting heuristics here. To badly mangle Yogi Berra, 90 percent of...
by Bill Bernstein
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson
Replies: 75
Views: 10906

Re: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson

Readers of my recent books will know that I favor short Treasuries and CDs for emergency money, upcoming consumption needs, and dry powder. There's nothing wrong with having some municipals and corporates, but you can't count on them during periods when you're going to need capital the most. You alw...
by Bill Bernstein
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson
Replies: 75
Views: 10906

Re: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson

Thanks for all the kind words.

I still like T-bills, though at present they offer only a marginal return over a mattress. (As opposed to most of the rest of the developed world, where the mattress comes out on top.)

Bill
by Bill Bernstein
Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Permanent Portfolio without cash allocation?
Replies: 65
Views: 5641

Re: Permanent Portfolio without cash allocation?

If you lose cash, then you're knocking out one of the legs in the Harry Browne scheme of things: 1) inflation = hold gold 2) depression = hold long government bonds 3) tight money = hold cash 4) prosperity = hold stocks The weakest leg in the system, in my opinion, is gold, since it empirically does...
by Bill Bernstein
Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What generalist books attempt to explain human nature?
Replies: 39
Views: 3017

Re: What generalist books attempt to explain human nature?

+1 on The Moral Animal, a brilliant book. As one of the other posters alluded to, once you start looking at the world through the evo psych lens, it looks completely different. I know it's cheesy for an author to plug his own books, especially on this forum, but for anyone interested in the intersec...
by Bill Bernstein
Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri
Replies: 36
Views: 5762

Re: Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri

Hi All: If you got the impression I enjoyed talking to Rick, you're right! Rick is funny, smart, and unfailingly cheerful. I have the same problem with bond duration for a liability matching portfolio now that I did in Ages of the Investor: yes, ideally one should have as an absolute worst-case back...
by Bill Bernstein
Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laser or inkjet
Replies: 58
Views: 3695

Re: Laser or inkjet

One more point: definitely get one that prints duplex/two-sided, even most cheap ones do it. Saves paper and money. Really, the worst part of printing these days, if you print a lot, is having to go out and physically pick up 10 or 20 reams, since it's generally least expensive that way, and 2-sided...
by Bill Bernstein
Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laser or inkjet
Replies: 58
Views: 3695

Re: Laser or inkjet

+1 On B&W laser. I'm sure one day I'll get a bum $11 toner cartridge, but it hasn't happened yet. Be aware that some lasers will demand that you replace the cartridge long before it's worn out--my Brother HL-L2340DW occasionally does that--but you can usually google a work around. I do a lot of prin...
by Bill Bernstein
Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on short Vietnam visit
Replies: 30
Views: 2838

Alternative Places

Central Vietnam is a tad less touristed, drop dead gorgeous, and easily accessible from the large Danang (DAD) airport, which has connections to most major SE Asian cities, particularly Bangkok. The Hue Citadel and Hoi An are all worth a visit. Dalat is also worth seeing, and at 5,000 feet has a ple...
by Bill Bernstein
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need a Printer!
Replies: 21
Views: 1488

Re: Need a Printer!

+1 on a simple Brother B&W laser.

Whatever you do, don't buy another inkjet, the cartridges are a rip off. Compatible laser toner cartridges have fallen into the $10-12 range, and are good for >1500 sheets, more if you select toner saver.



Bill
by Bill Bernstein
Sun May 12, 2019 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast
Replies: 28
Views: 4671

Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Re. valuations not being stationary, what I mean is that timing using valuation parameters seems not to work out of sample; this is true in most markets it's been looked at. For example, if you evolved valuation-based timing rules for US stocks in the 19th century, they worked well . . . . in the 19...
by Bill Bernstein
Fri May 10, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast
Replies: 28
Views: 4671

Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Thanks for the kind words. Podcasts are an important part of my information flow, and given the increasing number of high quality ones, I find that I'm slowly bumping off what used to be "must listen" subscriptions as they get replaced by even better ones. Five years ago I wouldn't miss an "In Our T...
by Bill Bernstein
Tue May 07, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HDHP vs Kaiser HMO
Replies: 28
Views: 2821

Re: HDHP vs Kaiser HMO

One more vote for Kaiser; great service, short waiting room times, and doctors and nurses who seem to have all the time in the world to spend with you. A little industrial in the public areas, but once you're inside the clinic rooms that changes. Their web interface is a revelation: make appointment...
by Bill Bernstein
Wed May 01, 2019 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rational way to thinking about laptop replacement/repair
Replies: 16
Views: 1192

Re: Rational way to thinking about laptop replacement/repair

If you're a bit of a DIYer, there's an alternative, which is to divorce yourself from Windows/Dell and learn how to load and use Linux. A decent used Thinkpad, say T420s or higher, can be had in the $100 range, add maybe $50 for an SSD, and is likely to be more durable than a new Dell. For the price...
by Bill Bernstein
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard is Discontinuing their VanguardAdvantage Accounts
Replies: 631
Views: 69464

Transition from Advantage Checking to Brokerage Checking

One more wrinkle to figure out is the transition from Advantage checking to plain-vanilla brokerage checking. Vanguard had originally announced that setting up the latter required shutting down the former, but one doesn't need an advanced degree in banking to realize that not all checks get cashed i...
by Bill Bernstein
Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard is Discontinuing their VanguardAdvantage Accounts
Replies: 631
Views: 69464

Re: Vanguard is Discontinuing their VanguardAdvantage Accounts

Sabtastic and Ladygeek: Thanks so much. Sometimes, things that seem too good to be true really are true, I suppose. Fido charges about 30 bp more for their MMFs than Vanguard does, $30/year on a 10k balance; that, plus being on their mailing list, is a more than fair price to pay for the service. Be...
by Bill Bernstein
Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard is Discontinuing their VanguardAdvantage Accounts
Replies: 631
Views: 69464

Schwab vs. CapitalOne vs. Fido Online Banking

Hi All: Having spent more time than I should have on the issue of what to replace an Advantage account with, what I seem to gather is this: The Schwab Account offers a competitive MMF rate within a brokerage account, but all bills have be to be paid out of the cash balance, which carries a derisory ...
by Bill Bernstein
Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard is Discontinuing their VanguardAdvantage Accounts
Replies: 631
Views: 69464

Re: Vanguard is Discontinuing their VanguardAdvantage Accounts

I for one would happily pay a reasonable fee, say $50-$100 per year, to keep the Advantage service and avoid the unnecessary complication of adding yet one or two more cogs into my financial life. Further, the Vanguard Federal MMF rate is 30-40 bp higher than that offered at Fido and CapitalOne, so ...
by Bill Bernstein
Sun Mar 03, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Satellite Phone rental for foreign travel
Replies: 23
Views: 1802

Re: Satellite Phone rental for foreign travel

Since no one mentioned it, I'll put in a word for T-mobile simple choice: free 2G data and text worldwide. Their US coverage used to be bad, but has improved dramatically of late. I also carry a throw-away phone for local data-only SIM cards, which can be absurdly cheap, a few bucks for 5-10G of dat...
by Bill Bernstein
Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities
Replies: 64
Views: 4928

Re: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities

Hi All: Social Security has already been mentioned, but something that goes unsaid about it is: do not even think of a SPIA or deferred annuity until you've spent down your retirement savings in order to defer SS to 70, which is, in effect, the best annuity money can buy (especially if you're marrie...
by Bill Bernstein
Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid rebalancing between risky assets. Let bulls run.
Replies: 33
Views: 3075

Re: Avoid rebalancing between risky assets. Let bulls run.

The OP's results are pretty much in line with what I found more than a decade ago: there's a weak tendency in favor of wider bands/less frequent rebalancing, but it's not all that convincing. I certainly agree that in the long term, rebalancing between stocks and bonds decreases, not increases, retu...
by Bill Bernstein
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Bucket Approach for Retirement: A Suboptimal Behavioral Trick?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3681

Re: "The Bucket Approach for Retirement: A Suboptimal Behavioral Trick?"

Estrada is right, bucketing is mathematically suboptimal. On the other hand, in the long run, investment success depends mainly on discipline, which requires all the psychological horsepower one can muster, especially when the chips are down. So I'm a big fan of psychological crutches: a suboptimal ...
by Bill Bernstein
Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming
Replies: 143
Views: 14224

Re: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming

The most honest way to look at the empirical data is to pick the passive SV fund with the longest track record. DFSVX incepted in 4/93, so we have a nearly quarter century of track record. To 10/31, DFSVX 11.44% S&P 500 index 9.40% Two percent annualized over a quarter century ain't chopped liver. F...
by Bill Bernstein
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How low can BND go?
Replies: 65
Views: 8435

Re: How low can BND go?

If you're in retirement, and if you have the space in your tax-sheltered accounts, then laddered TIPS are a better choice. The yields are still not great, but a lot better than they were 3 years ago. There's one 5-year auction per year, and two ten-years, plus two reopenings per year for each issue....
by Bill Bernstein
Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How low can BND go?
Replies: 65
Views: 8435

Re: How low can BND go?

BlueEars has the right idea. A similar way to look at it is with the Ibbotson series for the worst draw-down in long bonds, from 8/31/77 to 9/30/81, which yields the following results: Long Treasuries: -18% 5-Year Treasuries: +10% 30-day Bills: 49% Inflation: +52% BND probably looks most like the 5-...
by Bill Bernstein
Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Hsu and William Bernstein Like Overbalancing
Replies: 63
Views: 11880

Re: Jason Hsu and William Bernstein Like Overbalancing

What?? Give up the chance to buy low?? Perish the thought. Seriously, though, it's all a continuum; one-way rebalancing is just half-way in between normal constant allocation rebalancing and never rebalancing. And in retirement, it's maybe only 1/4 the way towards never rebalancing, since by definit...
by Bill Bernstein
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Hsu and William Bernstein Like Overbalancing
Replies: 63
Views: 11880

Re: Jason Hsu and William Bernstein Like Overbalancing

I confess! "Overbalancing," AKA "Strategic AA," *is* market timing. But so, then, is simple constant AA rebalancing; it's just a matter of degree. Both are simply a bet on mean reversion, and neither will work in a truly random walk world. Whether that's a bet worth making is up to the individual. B...
by Bill Bernstein
Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 195
Views: 30233

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

It all depends on how "hands on" you are. If you're a "hands off" kind of person, there's nothing wrong with Total Bond Market. If you're "hands on," then a hand-made treasury ladder is optimal for rebalancing/buy-at-the-fire sale/emergency and, best of all, free if you have the requisite brokerage ...
by Bill Bernstein
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: UPDATE: Credit Card Fraud - $30K
Replies: 66
Views: 9191

Re: Credit Card Fraud - $30K

Hi All: Scary thread, sorry for your hassle. Another useful hack is to have all your credit cards email daily balances and all transactions over a limit of . . . . $1.00 (the minimum they'll allow.) In the worst case scenario, a hacked email account, the missing alerts would be a very loud dog that ...
by Bill Bernstein
Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [A Splendid Exchange, by William Bernstein - on sale for Kindle]
Replies: 19
Views: 2444

Re: [A Splendid Exchange, by William Bernstein - on sale for Kindle]

Maybe, maybe not, a modern version of Mackay's "Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds," about 9 months from now, about half on financial manias, and the other half on End-Time mass delusions, all glued together with the relevant modern neuropsychology. The rough draft ...
by Bill Bernstein
Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [A Splendid Exchange, by William Bernstein - on sale for Kindle]
Replies: 19
Views: 2444

[A Splendid Exchange, by William Bernstein - on sale for Kindle]

Hi All: I realize it's tacky for DH authors to plug their books, but I can't resist posting this for anyone who'd like to read A Splendid Exchange, my history of world trade, whose Kindle format is available through eTextbooks.com/Amazon, currently for all of $1.20: https://www.amazon.com/Splendid-E...
by Bill Bernstein
Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question on "If You Can, How Millenials Can Get Rich Slowly"
Replies: 30
Views: 4225

Re: Question on "If You Can, How Millenials Can Get Rich Slowly"

Hi: Eighteen years old and already on the right track (ie, this forum); how I envy you. I didn't start to figure things out until I was forty. I meant that section in two ways: 1) From a theoretical point of view, the very best investment is a solid opportunity that only you know about. Ie, the more...
by Bill Bernstein
Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?
Replies: 35
Views: 5406

Re: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?

Masters of the Word was a flop, and if I suggested an update to my publisher it would be hard to get them to stop laughing. But you're right, I was wrong about a few things, a lot more things have evolved, and theoretically it would be nice to update it. Used to live in *North* Bend, completely diff...
by Bill Bernstein
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?
Replies: 35
Views: 5406

Re: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?

I'm not doctrinaire on the subject, and you'll find plenty of praise in my books for a three-fund/target date approach; that's what "If You Can" is all about.

I just wish Vanguard would offer Admiral Class Target/Life Strategy funds :wink:

Bill
by Bill Bernstein
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?
Replies: 35
Views: 5406

Re: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?

I'm currently finishing up a modern version of Mackay's "Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds." The first half is a pretty standard history of financial Bubbles, similar to Mackay's, the last half, alsoechoing Mackay, a history of non-financial delusions. Can't say mo...
by Bill Bernstein
Sat May 12, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund as substitute for Total International Stock Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 3988

Re: Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund as substitute for Total International Stock Fund?

There probably is damage to rebalancing too frequently, namely, that over short periods asset classes exhibit a small amount of momentum, so you're short-stopping "letting your gains/losses run." The probable benefit of long rebalancing periods (say, 2 years or more) doesn't come for free, however; ...
by Bill Bernstein
Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Wells Fargo Visa 3% Foreign Exchange fee]
Replies: 58
Views: 3908

Re: [Wells Fargo Visa 3% Foreign Exchange fee]

As have others on the thread, my CapitalOne card has no forex fees, and neither does my BofA Alaska Airlines card. And my Schwab ATM card is forex fee free, and rebates all of the ATM fees at the end of the month, which really comes in handy in a place like Vietnam, where it's hard to find an ATM th...
by Bill Bernstein
Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 13390

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

Right, when I wrote the original piece TIPS yields at 5 years were negative, and only about .35% at 30 years; rotten indeed. Much less rotten now, and I feel better about buying TIPS, particularly at the short end; there's the annual primary 5-year auction in a few weeks. Today, the median retiree h...
by Bill Bernstein
Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 13390

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

The “stop playing” meme came from an article I wrote for the WSJ a few years back. They only gave me 800 words, and that doesn’t leave a lot of room for nuance or detail. If they’d have given me 5,000 words, here’s what I’d have added: 1) All-TIPS is for the part of your portfolio that you need to k...
by Bill Bernstein
Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Recent Experience with Vietnam ATMs?
Replies: 14
Views: 1271

Re: Any Recent Experience with Vietnam ATMs?

Again, thanks! I'm guessing if you live in Saigon or Hanoi and you know the ropes, ATMs aren't a problem. But if you're just touring a lot of places in Asia, particularly out of the big cities, there's a learning curve to climb and it's difficult. Thailand isn't bad, but we found ourselves in Bandun...
by Bill Bernstein
Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Recent Experience with Vietnam ATMs?
Replies: 14
Views: 1271

Re: Any Recent Experience with Vietnam ATMs?

Thanks all! Greatly appreciated.

The Citibank tip sounds great, but it looks like they only have ATMs in Hanoi and Saigon. where we won't be.

My card reimburses all fees, so I'll hedge my bets with some cash.

Thanks again!

Bill