Search found 888 matches

by dharrythomas
Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratios - US vs International
Replies: 19
Views: 1456

Re: P/E Ratios - US vs International

What would be the purpose of such analysis? Would you attempt to determine how much to weight the two in an asset allocation? The 'problem' with using P/E ratios for this purpose, especially valuation metrics like CAPE, is that they are not reliably mean reverting. This is true of both individual s...
by dharrythomas
Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k Help. They are removing index funds.
Replies: 56
Views: 4005

Re: 401k Removed Index Funds

Part of your problem is that in general, American Funds is a good fund family with a pretty good long term track record. These are not the old Fidelity Destiny Funds sold by First Command. Depending on plan expenses, this plan doesn't sound too bad. I've been in several plans where the options were ...
by dharrythomas
Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date vs 2 or 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 862

Re: Target Date vs 2 or 3 Fund Portfolio

We have nothing but Target Retirement (Lifecyle in the TSP) and LifeStrategy in our Traditional and Roth accounts. The less I do, the fewer times I'm tempted to fiddle with my account, and the better I do.
by dharrythomas
Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USAA getting out of mutual fund biz
Replies: 33
Views: 4176

Re: USAA getting out of mutual fund biz

We started investing with USAA years ago, but then they started market timid with their funds and raised their fees significantly so we moved to Vanguard. I think the last move was 2001. Still use them for banking and insurance. They've got the same problem with rapid expansion that Vanguard has had...
by dharrythomas
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What the heck to do with $2M windfall
Replies: 22
Views: 4171

Re: What the heck to do with $2M windfall

1) Pay off all your debt. 2) Double check the Insurance. 3) Put $1.5M with the $1.2 in your portfolio. If you have $2.7M and 2.5 decades, with a reasonably agressive asset allocation, you ought to be able to double the lump sum twice and have over $10M. Particularly if you plan on working for anothe...
by dharrythomas
Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Roth IRA: Hitting mutual fund limits at the beginning
Replies: 16
Views: 1318

Re: Investing in Roth IRA: Hitting mutual fund limits at the beginning

If you don't like Target Retirement, LifeStrategy with a fixed asset allocation is a reasonable choice. If you want, you can pull it out and reconfigure in a few years. You might decide that you like the convienence of one fund. The sentiment above is right. Until you build your account balance thro...
by dharrythomas
Sun Oct 07, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Bogleheads Conference Notes
Replies: 36
Views: 5273

Re: 2018 Bogleheads Conference Notes

Thank you for posting the presentations.
by dharrythomas
Sun Sep 30, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Books
Replies: 54
Views: 6198

Re: Warren Buffett Books

I've read both The Snowball and Buffett. You learn more about Buffett as a person with The Snowball. You also learn about some of the deals and there is even a chapter about other conglomerates. Trading stamps and the deal with Berkshire Hattaway are prominent. I enjoyed Buffett but it was like the ...
by dharrythomas
Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myth Busting on Index Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 4144

Re: Myth Busting on Index Funds

Larry,

Thanks.
by dharrythomas
Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: returns for the next decade
Replies: 40
Views: 4297

Re: returns for the next decade

Who knows. Speculation based on PE ratios and current interest rates and directions indicates that returns should be low but whatever adjustment in values is anticipated could be delayed. We could have high returns for the next decade and then an extended nothing while prices normalized. I've been w...
by dharrythomas
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wellington Fund: where is the special sauce?
Replies: 36
Views: 7148

Re: Wellington Fund: where is the special sauce?

Bond prices move inverse to interest rates. While the Fed continues the tightening cycle, we can expect bond prices to drop. That will depress the return of balanced funds because diversification works even when you don't want it to.
by dharrythomas
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: DIY: Three versus One! Are the Advantages Worth it?
Replies: 47
Views: 3875

Re: DIY: Three versus One! Are the Advantages Worth it?

Moving to Vanguard and making the big expense cut is where you save money. If you have the discipline, rebalancing isn't that hard but the cost savings it's that much. Moving from say USAA Cornerstone Moderately Agressive to Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth reduces the expense ratio from 0.97 t...
by dharrythomas
Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are you not compensated for taking unsystematic risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2423

Re: Why are you not compensated for taking unsystematic risk?

The real reason is that unsystematic risk is a zero sum game and in a zero sum game the return for all players is ZERO. The same amount of :moneybag will be lost as won. An individual may come out ahead by taking uncompensated risk, but the system as a whole can only break even--somebody has to be o...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm about to inherit a single stock with a worth of just over 7 figures....
Replies: 103
Views: 9317

Re: I'm about to inherit a single stock with a worth of just over 7 figures....

Investing in a basket of stocks allowed me to be FI at least 10 years earlier than indexing. While I dont maintain the same allocation I still have some in direct stocks. Plus I took the risk and had a significant corpus tied to a house or two. Both worked. I am glad I did this when young and did n...
by dharrythomas
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [A Splendid Exchange, by William Bernstein - on sale for Kindle]
Replies: 19
Views: 2148

Re: Splendid Exchange Kindle Sale

I bought it on the 16th. I'm looking forward to reading it.
by dharrythomas
Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: divorce- helping my best friend
Replies: 5
Views: 1458

Re: divorce- helping my best friend

If they went into the joint account and selected average cost basis for each fund and then asked Vanguard to divide each fund 70/30, wouldn't it achieve the same thing?
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Abundance came late, now I'm overwhelmed playing catch up
Replies: 26
Views: 4649

Re: Abundance came late, now I'm overwhelmed playing catch up

Since this is taxable money, Tax Managed Balanced Fund is worth looking at 49/51 with US large cap and municipal bonds. With $200K in CDs and then the income produced from your owner financed sales being "bond-like", even with 50% stock, you are still at somewhere under 15% stock overall. I don't th...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dave Ramsey made me laugh today
Replies: 63
Views: 7178

Re: Dave Ramsey made me laugh today

Dave Ramsey has real life experience with debt in the real estate business. The President was into the banks for enough that he owned the banks. Dave was like most of us and the banks owned him and put him out of business. When he talks about debt, he talks from experience and from the heart.
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 112
Views: 14488

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

For the sake of my argument, I will say we want to retire at 50. This topic is open to discussion, I feel that 10-20% savings is simply not enough and should be aimed more at 40% to achieve an early retirement goal. I want to retire at 50. To calculate the percentage I need to save, I simply determ...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 16089

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Debt/leverage is dangerous. Take it from someone who lives in a house bought in a short sale from a tax attorney, when the economy or market turns, unless you've got funds sitting in low return cash investments, you are at risk. It doesn't matter how smart you are (see LTCG) the leverage that has t...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17798

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

It surprises me, that on this forum direct real estate is not looked at as another way to diversify one's portfolio and is being criticized so often. I don’t think this forum is particularly anti real estate. Yeah, I think it's maybe just anti claims of things like routine 38.75% returns via owning...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 16089

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Debt/leverage is dangerous. Take it from someone who lives in a house bought in a short sale from a tax attorney, when the economy or market turns, unless you've got funds sitting in low return cash investments, you are at risk. It doesn't matter how smart you are (see LTCG) the leverage that has th...
by dharrythomas
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28/F looking for some financial advice
Replies: 22
Views: 2748

Re: 28/F looking for some financial advice

Unload most of the employer stock. Do what you want with the current individual stocks, but don't buy more. We have money in a couple of credit unions and USAA Bank. I've needed to access Signature Guarantees on occasion and it helps to have an account. You are doing great, well ahead of curve. Tom ...
by dharrythomas
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Soon to retire Fed in the TSP
Replies: 20
Views: 1690

Re: Soon to retire Fed in the TSP

Because the TSP is so conservative, I've got mine in L2040 though I turn 56 this year. Based on your current allocation, I wouldn't do that, but you should at least be in L2020. You're going to be drawing for a decade, 20% stocks will provide you potential for a little growth. G fund will not provid...
by dharrythomas
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"
Replies: 58
Views: 7173

Re: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"

greg24 wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:07 am
All real estate is local.
Until it isn't. While the bubble varied, there was a nationwide bubble, apparent in Calhoun County, AL and Richland County, SC followed by a nationwide crash. It was worse on the coast and in Vegas, but it was not a localized problem.
by dharrythomas
Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Tax Withholding at Vanguard?
Replies: 10
Views: 1358

Re: Dividend Tax Withholding at Vanguard?

You can do it, but they make it hard if you said you weren't subject to backup withholding when you opened your account (unless things have changed). I asked about it years ago and they said something about a signature with a medallion guarantee for all owners of the account. I suspect it is harder...
by dharrythomas
Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: STAR Funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1375

Re: STAR Funds

Nothing wrong with STAR. I think it is about 62.5/37.5. Slightly better return than LifeStrategy Moderate Growth. Probably mostly because a sliver more stock, less international, and maybe a little cheap but quality stock picking.
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Tax Withholding at Vanguard?
Replies: 10
Views: 1358

Re: Dividend Tax Withholding at Vanguard?

You can do it, but they make it hard if you said you weren't subject to backup withholding when you opened your account (unless things have changed). I asked about it years ago and they said something about a signature with a medallion guarantee for all owners of the account. I suspect it is harder ...
by dharrythomas
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recommendations for specific "Boglehead-like" podcast episodes (for elderly mother)
Replies: 19
Views: 1680

Re: Recommendations for specific "Boglehead-like" podcast episodes (for elderly mother)

Not sure it is as in depth as you are looking for, but it is good over-view of index fund investing and the reason I first heard about it. Might be a good first podcast to let her hear on the subject. Freakonomics podcast episode "The Stupidest Thing You Can Do With Your Money" http://freakonomics....
by dharrythomas
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Respectfully Looking for Advice
Replies: 20
Views: 2616

Re: Respectfully Looking for Advice

I'd pay off the cars and the house. That frees up $30,000 of annual cash flow for investing now and lowers you spending requirement. Leave the $50K in the emergency fund, put the rest of the cash into Tax Managed Balanced Fund, max both 401(K)s, and also max out Roth IRAs. Switch the 401(K) to tradi...
by dharrythomas
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to convince my co-worker to invest more?
Replies: 47
Views: 3683

Re: How to convince my co-worker to invest more?

Show him a compound interest table and say "it's amazing how much less you can save on a regular basis if you start early. Thanks for what you are doing. I talked to a colleague that said none of her supervisors in about a decade had talked to her about the TSP. I talked to each of my subordinates a...
by dharrythomas
Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Small Caps Outperform?
Replies: 61
Views: 4788

Re: Do Small Caps Outperform?

I think DFA would tell you that it is microcaps that outperform, but with additional volatility. So the Russell is not small enough to capture most of the benefit. It also depends on the timeframe you look at because small does not outperform over every possible timeframe, just like value does not a...
by dharrythomas
Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Left Advisory Portfolio to do it myself and fear I made mess of things
Replies: 35
Views: 2976

Re: Left Advisory Portfolio to do it myself and fear I made mess of things

Yes, you've got a mess in your portfolio. On the other hand, with investable assets of approximately $650K, you are far ahead of the median household. If your spending requirement in retirement is not outsized and you plan to work until 67, any place but here you are on track. Now for the mess. I di...
by dharrythomas
Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!
Replies: 86
Views: 8318

Re: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!

We should all try to remember that many of the things we understand and use or don't are just confusing options for the bulk of employees. The world is not full of Bogleheads and firms need to be much more concerned about getting average to a sustainable retirement than the Top 15% to early retireme...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Next Steps for Single 34 Year Old with Savings and Roth IRA (VASGX)
Replies: 37
Views: 3373

Re: Next Steps for Single 34 Year Old with Savings and Roth IRA (VASGX)

No one here can comment about whether you are behind or not unless you tell us how much is in the Roth. If you've been maxing it out since you were 22, you are likely OK. If you just started at 30, you lost some time and you are behind the curve for this site. Regardless, you are probably ahead of t...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Advice
Replies: 7
Views: 698

Re: TSP Advice

I use one L Fund and don't check often. The TSP will send you a quarterly statement, if they're doing the rebalancing for you, there is no real need to check more often. You appear to have a healthy balance and savings rate, regardless of your age, when you consider the pension.

Good luck

Harry
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation 53 years old
Replies: 21
Views: 1933

Re: Asset Allocation 53 years old

The real benefit to cutting spending and saving more is that you need less to support your standard of living. $2.5M is only going to provide a safe withdrawal of around $100K. Add SS for maybe $30K. All will be taxed at income tax rates. Do you have any personal debt? I'm not convinced that $2.5M w...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham's lesson on timing
Replies: 23
Views: 3008

Re: Benjamin Graham's lesson on timing

Graham also recommended that the default portfolio be 50/50 and that portfolio asset allocations for the most defensive and most enterprising investors should be between 25/75 and 75/25, he learned from his experience. "The Intelligent Investor"
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $1M Question
Replies: 38
Views: 5199

Re: $1M Question

Lets assume you have $10,000. Makes the calculations easier. That is you want a 9,900% annual return. Or a daily return of 1.26%, if we assume a 365 day year. However if you want that type of return you are going to have do some day trading, and there are only about 250 trading days in a year. So a...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When I thought I was smarter than the market
Replies: 22
Views: 3881

Re: When I thought I was smarter than the market

Thanks. Many here have some version of that story about being humbled by the markets. Warren Buffett talks about how it is less important how large your "circle of competence" is than that you not overestimate it.

A lesson best learned early. Congratulations.
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 02, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: is Having more and needing less normal?
Replies: 113
Views: 9279

Re: is Having more and needing less normal?

My wife who had to have a larger house and big yard when I had a job move after the youngest left for college.

10 years later, she wants to think about downsizing! Money and things aren't everything, they aren't even the most important things in life!
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International vs US investments
Replies: 18
Views: 1601

Re: International vs US investments

Politics don't influence my investment decisions. International politics certainly don't influence my investment decisions. Why? It looks to me that a company performs differently based on the location....and the politic defines the rules (taxes, etc...)... If someone gives a recommendation to inve...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best use for a $2k raise for a middle-income teacher
Replies: 35
Views: 4015

Re: Best use for a $2k raise for a middle-income teacher

You are doing great. To exceed the $350K goal, you don't need to save additional money. I'd recommend you maintain your current investing rate, put 1/2 of the raise into additional principal payments on you mortgage, and spend the other half. Between income tax and savings, you are already spending ...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roast this profile
Replies: 17
Views: 2485

Re: Roast this profile

You are doing very well, the only comment I have is that you gain next to no diversification benefit from the 3 ETFs. All three are concentrated in the same stocks with almost the same weights. Pick one for all future purchases, I personally prefer TSM as you at least get the midcap and small cap st...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA commingles Roth and non-Roth retirement funds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1242

Re: TIAA commingles Roth and non-Roth retirement funds?

The TSP has the same thing, Roth and Traditional in one account with an inability to manage Roth and Traditional Funds separately. At least they are in the process of modifying the withdrawal options.
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review: Very conservative, primarily interested in capital preservation
Replies: 30
Views: 4602

Re: Portfolio Review: Very conservative, primarily interested in capital preservation

LieStrategy Income Fund has an asset allocation of 20/80, Target Retirement Income is at 30/70. That would provide you a sliver of equity risk/return. Frankly, if you're interested in risk control, leverage reduction is probably the way to go. It also provides a little flexibility when you go back t...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - investor starting later in life
Replies: 37
Views: 5364

Re: Help - investor starting later in life

If your net worth is about 1.25X net income, a 12-15 year retirement time horizon is aggressive. You'll really have to ratchet down your spending and ratchet up your savings rate to make retiring about age 50 work. You might want to revise that timeline. There is a trade off between current spending...
by dharrythomas
Sun May 27, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring and have questions about retirement accounts
Replies: 8
Views: 1069

Re: Retiring and have questions about retirement accounts

You should be able to fool your 401(K) to Vanguard, but you'll need to check with your plan. Drawing retirement accounts early (pre 59.5) is complicated so you'll need to check with the plan on the details. There is a rule about periodic withdrawals that allows you to take some early withdrawals but...
by dharrythomas
Sun May 27, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why pay cash for a car?
Replies: 250
Views: 32963

Re: Why pay cash for a car?

We pay cash for cars because we don't like debt. I do think we buy less car and since I've bought 3 for me a 1988, 1995, and a 2005, I make them last when I get them.

I buy miles not a status symbol.