Search found 1027 matches

by dharrythomas
Thu May 28, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads: What is your largest single stock holding? (if any)
Replies: 79
Views: 3942

Re: Bogleheads: What is your largest single stock holding? (if any)

1. Two De Novo bank stocks that we bought when I was working in Alabama. I grew up in a small town, the local banks made a good deal of money. So when the opportunity arose, we bought a little stock. We didn’t have much money either time, so we are just along for the ride. There were three de novo b...
by dharrythomas
Sat May 23, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delayed Retirement Credits
Replies: 12
Views: 1060

Re: Delayed Retirement Credits

Yes. If you are drawing based on someone else’s earning history there is no credit for waiting past full retirement.
by dharrythomas
Sat May 16, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17993

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

the long term investor will invest in long duration bond funds in hopes of greater return than a total bond fund, right? Even without caring about short term correlations or rebalancing, even at current low rates, he can fairly expect long term bonds to have a greater return than a total bond fund,...
by dharrythomas
Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A downside to target retirement funds?
Replies: 47
Views: 5270

Re: A downside to target retirement funds?

It is easy to market time with LifeStrategy or Target Retirement Funds, at least as easy as anywhere else. If you are holding one fund it is no more than one transaction to adjust your asset allocation anywhere from 90/10 to 20/80. If you want to, it is incredibly easy to behave badly even with a on...
by dharrythomas
Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flip from 60/40 to 40/60
Replies: 42
Views: 3558

Re: Flip from 60/40 to 40/60

We should all be able to agree that Bogle did not recommend either international or active funds, in addition to the CMH.
by dharrythomas
Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much could we theoretically lose?
Replies: 128
Views: 10213

Re: How much could we theoretically lose?

I have not read every reply. Theoretically, we could lose everything. Most companies are leveraged to the hilt. Guns and ammo are flying off the shelf, if we start shooting at each other, who will maintain the infrastructure required to sustain modern life. Governments could do what they did with GM...
by dharrythomas
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63158

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Nobody knows nothing! But if we’re doing poetry: If— Rudyard Kipling - 1865-1936 If you can keep your head when all about you Are losing theirs and blaming it on you; If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, But make allowance for their doubting too; If you can wait and not be tired by wait...
by dharrythomas
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC Contributor - Cash Out Refi and Invest
Replies: 19
Views: 1458

Re: CNBC Contributor - Cash Out Refi and Invest

Leverage increases risk, it is not a course of action I would recommend. Much more sophisticated traders than I have gone broke with leverage. Lord Keynes famously said that markets can remain irrational longer than an individual can remain solvent. With interest rates at zero and below, the models ...
by dharrythomas
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 15083

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

I don’t think any of us have any idea how this will play out. Remember Jack Bogle kept repeating, “Nobody knows nothing”. The virus is not hard to kill in the environment. We are vastly understating the number of cases in this country, because regard of what we’re being told, we are not testing proa...
by dharrythomas
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still a fan of small value?
Replies: 97
Views: 4457

Re: Still a fan of small value?

I’ve been a long term fan of value with a small tilt toward and a smaller tilt toward small. I’ve got no idea if I’m ahead or behind because of it, I do believe the value story even though Jack Bogle thought it was a story about cherry picking your dates and reversion to the mean. I notice that I’ve...
by dharrythomas
Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why so much buying/rebalancing going on?
Replies: 100
Views: 6212

Re: Why so much buying/rebalancing going on?

I moved some stuff to stocks last week. I’d promised some money to a kid when they bought a house. You can’t control timing, so we were cash poor when they made a deal. Out of pure luck, I sold a little near the high. Then last week, a start up bank we invested in is selling (merging) out and we’ll ...
by dharrythomas
Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do Bogleheads Invest In Major Market Tumbles?
Replies: 36
Views: 2768

Re: How Do Bogleheads Invest In Major Market Tumbles?

Most people are fully invested and don't keep "dry powder" except for market timers, whom aren't really Bogleheads. Once you have your invest plan laid out, you invest money when you have it. +1 We didn’t make any changes in 2008. Every move I made in 2000 was wrong. I sold some bonds and bought so...
by dharrythomas
Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The most valuable lesson in your investment career?
Replies: 87
Views: 4675

Re: The most valuable lesson in your investment career?

I disagree with no bonds until 40s or 50s. The first mutual fund I had was a hybrid fund with both stocks and bonds. It helped when I was looking at the NAVs published in the newspapers back then that my fund hadn't gone down as much as most stock funds precisely because my fund had some bonds in i...
by dharrythomas
Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The most valuable lesson in your investment career?
Replies: 87
Views: 4675

Re: The most valuable lesson in your investment career?

1. Invest consistently in a low-fee US index 2. Time the market by increase buying during bear markets Rinse and repeat The US market always recovers. Always. It’s never different this time The US market has always recovered in the past, that is the way we are all hoping, praying, and betting. Alwa...
by dharrythomas
Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The most valuable lesson in your investment career?
Replies: 87
Views: 4675

Re: The most valuable lesson in your investment career?

Hi fellow bogleheads, I am 27 year old investor early in my career. I have adopted the bogleheads mindset, read some of the classics, but I am humbled by the fact that true knowledge comes from years of investment experience and making mistakes. I am interested in starting a conversation about some...
by dharrythomas
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The most valuable lesson in your investment career?
Replies: 87
Views: 4675

Re: The most valuable lesson in your investment career?

I don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow. Don’t time the market. I don’t put the effort into this to compete with professionals at picking stocks. I’m not Warren Buffett. I might as well bet college football as try to be a short term trader. Don’t pick individual stocks, mutual funds are good, ...
by dharrythomas
Fri Feb 21, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has Vanguard deteriorated?
Replies: 114
Views: 9853

Re: Has Vanguard deteriorated?

Vanguard is fine, not perfect. We’ve been with Vanguard about 25 years, no plan to leave. Rolled over stuff from a couple of 401(K)s and IRAs, had no problems. If you need handholding, you need to pay for it directly instead of being service being subsidized by other fund holders. It is still genera...
by dharrythomas
Fri Feb 21, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 2020-2030 Returns Projection Table
Replies: 115
Views: 8256

Re: Vanguard 2020-2030 Returns Projection Table

When markets are high and interest rates are low, we should expect lower than average returns going forward. Though there have been some rough spots, investors have had the wind at their back for the last 40 years. Reversion to the mean happens whether we want it to or not. Stay the course, accept w...
by dharrythomas
Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Have 100% Retirement Accounts, Should I invest in NonRetirement Now or Later?
Replies: 18
Views: 1617

Re: Have 100% Retirement Accounts, Should I invest in NonRetirement Now or Later?

With markets at all time highs, P/E ratios high, interest rates very low, it seems unlikely that stocks will return 8% over the next 15 years. That would require extreme multiple expansion. Of course what do I know. The market was also at all time highs in the mid 1980s and it’s about 20 times highe...
by dharrythomas
Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth and Traditional IRAs
Replies: 5
Views: 349

Re: Roth and Traditional IRAs

It depends on your intended uses for the money, how much risk you want to take, the relative balances of the accounts, your drawdown strategy, and whether you need the money in the Roth during retirement or the pensions and traditional cover your requirements, whether any remainder will go to family...
by dharrythomas
Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Grappling with greediness
Replies: 44
Views: 9468

Re: Grappling with greediness

This is probably going to be one of these posts I look back on in a bear market and smile my fear is that they're going to sit there doing nothing while equities continue to climb Yeah, you really have to be happy with your choice even when wrong. Everyone's allocation is wrong, whether at first or...
by dharrythomas
Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Planning to sell portion of Vanguard Target fund 2055
Replies: 10
Views: 1022

Re: Planning to sell portion of Vanguard Target fund 2055

The target date fund has already sold some stocks to buy bonds in order to maintain the target asset allocation. If the target date fund is the only investment you have and the allocation is still appropriate, you do not need to do anything. The beautiful thing about balanced funds is that they main...
by dharrythomas
Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog post: When You Were Born > Everything Else
Replies: 31
Views: 2689

Re: Blog post: When You Were Born > Everything Else

Folks, Some people believe that certain factors beyond their control are more important than anything else. For example, where you are born, when you are born and so on. Meanwhile, some people have family all over the world. They found that a high saving rate and devotion to education make them suc...
by dharrythomas
Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: pennies for your thoughts
Replies: 11
Views: 1564

Re: pennies for your thoughts

My mother had an account with UBS. They charged a fee once a year. When I closed the account after her death, there was less than $1 left (interest for the partial last month). It sat in the account until annual fee time and they swept it up.
by dharrythomas
Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me not make a costly mistake
Replies: 16
Views: 2077

Re: Help me not make a costly mistake

Stay away from that advisor. Leave your money in the TSP. They will open up a 2025 fund later this year, use that. Move your IRAs to Vanguard. Use LifeStrategy Moderate Growth. 60/40 allocation, 0.14 expense ratio vs 0.91, broad diversification with index funds. If you are really risk adverse, there...
by dharrythomas
Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey: Foundations In Personal Finance (High School)
Replies: 40
Views: 4443

Re: Dave Ramsey: Foundations In Personal Finance (High School)

With the statistics in our society, anything that teaches kids that debt can be hazardous to your financial health has got to be beneficial overall. You are way into any of Dave Ramsey’s programs before you get past pay off debt, control spending, and save money. If you just get that part, I’d guess...
by dharrythomas
Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast
Replies: 137
Views: 10034

Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Rick, Thanks. I’ll listen in the morning on my walk.I’ve read a bunch of his stuff and listened to several talks on small and value, enough to have a small tilt. Thank you for brining multiple perspectives to the table, thank you for what you do here, and thank you for your service to our country. H...
by dharrythomas
Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why am I taking so much risk?
Replies: 50
Views: 6582

Re: Why am I taking so much risk?

I am 56 years old, and my asset allocation is approximately 50/50. I am ten years from retirement. For perspective the Vanguard Target Date 2030 fund which is designed for someone who is retiring in about ten years is 75% stocks and 25% bonds. https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VTHR...
by dharrythomas
Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage payoff in VTI
Replies: 76
Views: 6219

Re: Mortgage payoff in VTI

I enjoy not worrying about having enough in the bank to make a payment. That's a worry for you? If you have enough in the bank to pay off the entire mortgage, it doesn't make a lot of sense to worry about having enough in the bank to make a single payment. If I’ve got it in the bank, I might as wel...
by dharrythomas
Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Harvest capital gains to invest in Roth IRA?
Replies: 8
Views: 562

Re: Harvest capital gains to invest in Roth IRA?

Hard to know without more info but I wouldn't sell unless I absolutely needed to sell. Would always prefer to use new money or cash from dividends before realizing gains in taxable account. I would possibly consider this if I was unable to max my account otherwise and I was getting close to the dea...
by dharrythomas
Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Harvest capital gains to invest in Roth IRA?
Replies: 8
Views: 562

Re: Harvest capital gains to invest in Roth IRA?

It sounds like with your pensions and later SS you may not need to tap this money in your Roth IRAs at all. What is the planned goal/usage of the Roth IRAs? I am not sure incurring the capital gains to add to Roth makes sense since the elimination of the stretch IRA. Even with the tax drag from div...
by dharrythomas
Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Harvest capital gains to invest in Roth IRA?
Replies: 8
Views: 562

Re: Harvest capital gains to invest in Roth IRA?

We alternate years taking capital gains/losses if possible. Our gains are taxed at 15% while losses reduce ordinary income which is taxed at 24% for us. If you have a capital loss it could be worth taking in 2021 if you are still working. If I had anything to tax loss harvest, it would be an obviou...
by dharrythomas
Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Harvest capital gains to invest in Roth IRA?
Replies: 8
Views: 562

Re: Harvest capital gains to invest in Roth IRA?

We should be in the 22% tax bracket each year, but with an Army Reserve pension and a FERS pension, in addition to SS and RMDs, I don’t expect that to change in retirement.
by dharrythomas
Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Harvest capital gains to invest in Roth IRA?
Replies: 8
Views: 562

Harvest capital gains to invest in Roth IRA?

January 2, I sold $14,000 of Total World in order to fund our Roth IRAs. LTCG was $4,299.49. I’ve done this for a few years to build up the Roth IRAs. Too late for this year because it is done, but at 57, was it worth paying the capital gains tax to shield the future income from taxes. Before the ch...
by dharrythomas
Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage payoff in VTI
Replies: 76
Views: 6219

Re: Mortgage payoff in VTI

Having had two kids in college, there is nothing like cash flow when unexpected expenses arise. I guess I'd argue that a large sum in the bank (rather than in the walls of your house) is like cash flow - and could even be much better, depending on the size of the unexpected expenses. Except that ho...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage payoff in VTI
Replies: 76
Views: 6219

Re: Mortgage payoff in VTI

Would love to have it paid off before my oldest of 4 kids starts college in Aug 2028. Why? Having had two kids in college, there is nothing like cash flow when unexpected expenses arise. We paid off the house and started stacking up cash. We sent our oldest to a state school, partial scholarship, p...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage payoff in VTI
Replies: 76
Views: 6219

Re: Mortgage payoff in VTI

With about 230k remaining on our 30 yr mortgage at 3.75%, I've struggled with the paying it off vs using the excess to invest. So, I've decided that a different approach may work best. Please note... at the current pace, the house could be paid off in 8 years. Starting today, all excess funds that ...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage payoff in VTI
Replies: 76
Views: 6219

Re: Mortgage payoff in VTI

It’s probably too negligible at today’s interest rates to really even mention but for those who itemize there is an additional cost of prepayment in the form of lost deduction. Prepaying a 4 percent loan by $10,000 will cost a taxpayer in the 24 percent bracket about $96 a year. This deduction slig...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage payoff in VTI
Replies: 76
Views: 6219

Re: Mortgage payoff in VTI

If anyone has a paid off house, do you consider getting a new mortgage to invest in market? Posts here imply it may be a good move. We’ve bought 3 houses. Bought the second in 1999 and paid it off in 2006. When we moved for the job, we upgraded a bit but put everything out of the old house into the...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage payoff in VTI
Replies: 76
Views: 6219

Re: Mortgage payoff in VTI

"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn't, pays it.” - Albert Einstein This thought alone prevents me from paying off the house. :moneybag While there is much truth in this statement often attributed to Einstein, there is no evidence that ...
by dharrythomas
Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing or Speculation?
Replies: 59
Views: 3838

Re: Investing or Speculation?

I am always impressed by the expertise evidenced in threads like this, but I think this point, made by "garland whizzer" below in an earlier thread, is worth considering in this context. Particularly the point that "risk is something else." [emphasis added in quote.] There is a big difference betwe...
by dharrythomas
Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So now stocks only return 3% over time?
Replies: 95
Views: 11465

Re: So now stocks only return 3% over time?

They're all right but you have to understand the specifics of the terms they're using. Since 1925 the U.S. stock market has averaged roughly 12% returns. That's an arithmetic average, like ( +54% , -24%, +6% ) are 3 numbers that "average" to a 12, but does not necessarily equate to a total return o...
by dharrythomas
Mon Dec 30, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ??? @ Stay the Course and start of Vanguard
Replies: 1
Views: 492

Re: ??? @ Stay the Course and start of Vanguard

He didn’t. They continue to pick stock for the legacy funds and maybe some more. There is a reason some of the funds are called Wellington.
by dharrythomas
Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Joe Davis, Vanguard's global chief economist, is my guest for this 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast.
Replies: 38
Views: 2977

Re: Joe Davis, Vanguard's global chief economist, is my guest for this 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast.

Rick, Another great podcast. I’d vote in favor of making it an annual event. I downloaded the forecast to read this week. Thanks and Happy New Year.
by dharrythomas
Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Balanced Index (VBIAX) vs. Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX)
Replies: 25
Views: 3899

Re: Vanguard Balanced Index (VBIAX) vs. Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX)

Both are great. We use VSMGX because I believe in the value of international diversification. Use whichever you want.
by dharrythomas
Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't have faith in small and value premiums
Replies: 409
Views: 14805

Re: I don't have faith in small and value premiums

A three fund portfolio is good enough. Depending on you investment timeframe, it may do better than a tilt.

Good luck.
by dharrythomas
Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Portfolio Advice Possible if I Asked the Question This Way?
Replies: 51
Views: 2217

Re: Is Portfolio Advice Possible if I Asked the Question This Way?

Just when I was getting ready to applaud TomatoTomahto (Which I still do... he seems a very diligent thinker), I read this and I am in awe of the quality of comments and the depth of creative thinking here in this thread - thank you all, I am so fortunate to even have thought of posting. You all ar...
by dharrythomas
Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leaving First Command Tax Repercussions
Replies: 35
Views: 3151

Re: Leaving First Command Tax Repercussions

USAA is a first rate insurance company and the good internet bank, they are a 2d tier investment company, the expenses are high. They recently sold out, though I think they will keep the branding. Vanguard, Fidelity, and several others would, IMHO, be better for you. But USAA, and most other compani...
by dharrythomas
Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Portfolio Advice Possible if I Asked the Question This Way?
Replies: 51
Views: 2217

Re: Is Portfolio Advice Possible if I Asked the Question This Way?

Ben Graham says in the intelligent investor that all investors should be between 75/25 and 25/75 with the neutral position being 50/50. But of course, he’s out of date and we’re all smarter than he was. :wink: Let’s say, just for the sake of argument, that my fixed income portion is less than 25% o...
by dharrythomas
Thu Dec 26, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundamental Indexing Is The Better Way To Value Tilt?
Replies: 72
Views: 8215

Re: Fundamental Indexing Is The Better Way To Value Tilt?

It’s OK. It is a reasonable way to get a value tilt. Since it includes all the stocks in the index, it provides a value tilt without giving up growth. So it will be a leading value fund when growth does better and provide less of a benefit when value is doing best.