Search found 3730 matches

by Aptenodytes
Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Account Specific AA and Taking Advantage of Low Tax Bracket
Replies: 12
Views: 754

Re: Account Specific AA and Taking Advantage of Low Tax Bracket

I would not base my portfolio on what I thought the marginal tax rates on income and capital gains would be in thirty years. Putting as much as possible in Roths does make sense, though there's still some risk they will be treated differently in thirty years. I would put only high risk funds in the ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3590

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

You can tune your simulation to any probability distributions you want - you can shift the expected return of any asset you want, and you can shift the shape of the distribution, you can shift the correlations across after asset classes. Likewise you can shift the probability distributions of future...
by Aptenodytes
Sun May 26, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 212
Views: 25925

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

It it were obvious there wouldn't be so many people disagreeing with it. I've always thought there was a lot of magical thinking about cash, and I saw Rick's post as saying 'stick to reality.'
samsoes wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:19 pm

The original post is just an obvious statement. Nothing more, nothing less, nothing actionable.
by Aptenodytes
Sun May 26, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three assets all with negative correlations?
Replies: 18
Views: 1536

Re: Three assets all with negative correlations?

You are searching for what are called factors. No need to do the search from scratch unless you have billions to invest and can justify the expense. Nobel prize winners have done it for you. And people like Larry Swedroe have synthesized the results in understandable, actionable ways.
by Aptenodytes
Tue May 14, 2019 5:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trade VTTVX for VBIAX? Need sanity check on my AA too please
Replies: 3
Views: 392

Re: Trade VTTVX for VBIAX? Need sanity check on my AA too please

1) price/share does not matter for mutual funds. 2) The difference in expense ratio between these two funds is far less important than the difference in asset allocation (AA) within the funds. What you are seeing as similar profiles (because of stock/bond ratios) are actually pretty different when y...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Those who view everything as one portfolio - how do you determine allocations and how "funded" different goals are?
Replies: 28
Views: 2211

Re: Those who view everything as one portfolio - how do you determine allocations and how "funded" different goals are?

Here's a simpler approach. You need at least $15K in a cash emergency fund, and all the rest is invested for the long term. The $15K for car and wedding and other emergency needs isn't part of your long-term retirement portfolio where you are in your life right now, because you may need to deplete i...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How often do you check your net worth?
Replies: 257
Views: 14714

Re: How often do you check your net worth?

Liquid retirement accounts, monthly
Net worth, yearly
by Aptenodytes
Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Super Lazy portfolio, just VSMGX? [Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth]
Replies: 16
Views: 2513

Re: Super Lazy portfolio, just VSMGX?

Or the more conservative, LifeStrategy Conservative Growth (VSCGX). I have started using this fund as my primary comparison benchmark (in a virtual portfolio that matches my stock-bond mix). I use it because it is where I'd be if I gave up my a la carte approach. Even if you don't invest in one of t...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Europe funds / strategies?
Replies: 12
Views: 1211

Re: Emerging Europe funds / strategies?

It would help to see your total AA. It sounds like you are tilting to Europe with your equity holdings, but you don't say that explicitly. And you are defining Europe in this context as west of Russia and north of Africa and Syria. How big is your Europe tilt? Within Europe, how big is your emerging...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone exclude emerging markets?
Replies: 50
Views: 6670

Re: Anyone exclude emerging markets?

I overweight them because I think the preponderance of evidence suggests that they act as if they were a factor. I realize this is not an accepted fact. For comparison purposes, it seems that what matters is the percentage of your international portfolio that is emerging, as opposed to percentage of...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Health Savings Accounts (HSA) that require a minimum balance before investing worth it?
Replies: 39
Views: 4171

Re: Are Health Savings Accounts (HSA) that require a minimum balance before investing worth it?

Comparing an option that is available to you to an option that is not available cannot possibly help you make a good decision. Whether a given HSA's investment options are worse than an imaginary HSA with no cash minimum requirements is irrelevant. You should choose the HSA that is best for you, by ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell bonds, pre-pay mortgage instead?
Replies: 10
Views: 1129

Re: Sell bonds, pre-pay mortgage instead?

We have a 3% fixed rate on the mortgage... ...bond with a guaranteed 4% return Don't know if the 4% was a typo, but the "guaranteed return" would be the same as the mortgage rate: 3%. True, 3% from mortgage prepayment = 3% from mortgage prepayment. But in weighing the choice between prepaying and b...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mutual Funds to reduce risk in stock heavy portfolio for 89 year old?
Replies: 12
Views: 1386

Re: Mutual Funds to reduce risk in stock heavy portfolio for 89 year old?

Aptenodytes: You asked about their stocks. Actually, it is now > $1M.... it is actually $1.3M in just 3 stocks: 4% General Electric, 39% AT&T, 57% in Consolidated Edison. What would you select that would be counter sector"? Well, you are talking to someone who sticks to broad-based, factor-based in...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mutual Funds to reduce risk in stock heavy portfolio for 89 year old?
Replies: 12
Views: 1386

Re: Mutual Funds to reduce risk in stock heavy portfolio for 89 year old?

They seem like people who are comfortable with a 100% equity portfolio, so I wouldn't focus on the bond question. Bonds wouldn't really do anything for them. I'd focus strictly on the stock diversification question. Diversification will take the current risk they have of losing everything, which is ...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates
Replies: 13
Views: 2412

Re: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates

There's a paradox: IF you really believed it were possible to predict interest rate changes, then you would HAVE to conclude that you should never do so. Because actively managed bond funds have access to far better information than you and teams of far better-trained people than you. So if you beli...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2338
Views: 421554

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

30% stocks ("Larry" flavored)
70% "bonds" (mostly TIAA TRAD)
----------
9.0%

A couple tenths of a percentage point below my benchmark. Not a good year for SCV.
by Aptenodytes
Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond allocation-what I'm I missing
Replies: 15
Views: 1279

Re: Bond allocation-what I'm I missing

1) If you could have your portfolio lose half its value and not wish you had been able to prevent it, you don't need bonds. 2) If you are trying to have your portfolio end up as large as it possibly could at the time of your death, regardless of the consequences, you don't need bonds. Otherwise, you...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Date Funds, Rebalancing, and Bear Markets
Replies: 5
Views: 2355

Re: Target Date Funds, Rebalancing, and Bear Markets

You embedded the answer in your question: TSP L funds are rebalanced daily. This feature is one of the main reasons people buy Target Date funds. The other is the glide path. Both features are mast-tying correctives against the siren call of market timing. They are also correctives against the sin o...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 168
Views: 19961

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

I've never understood the logic of cash as an asset category within an investment portfolio. If you need to hold onto some cash for liquidity or emergency uses, you take it out of your investment portfolio and it becomes part of your checking account or emergency fund. For me that's part of the defi...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wooden flooring in kitchen
Replies: 51
Views: 6012

Re: Wooden flooring in kitchen

What do you consider impractical about it? One of the things I like about the oak floor in my kitchen is the practicality of it (one example -- no grout to clean; another example -- no threshold between kitchen and adjoining rooms which also have oak floors). If I'm still living here when the time c...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Potential Move to the Upper Valley, NH
Replies: 24
Views: 2649

Re: Potential Move to the Upper Valley, NH

You can choose how "so rural" you want it to be. In the town center of Hanover or Lebanon, for example, you'll have restaurants, movie theaters, bookstores, department stores of sorts, even some traffic and parking hassles. A mile or so out and you are in suburbia, and 5 miles out you are in the cou...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Considering Larry portfolio for a portion of portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 1037

Re: Considering Larry portfolio for a portion of portfolio

You may want to consider rephrasing your question and giving it a new title. It really doesn't concern the Larry Portfolio at all, so it takes a while to figure what you are seeking. Is this close to what you are asking: 1) For a portfolio that will not be having withdrawals for a very long time and...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jun 13, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High risk due to 20% in junk bonds? Or because of long-term holdings?
Replies: 4
Views: 1093

Re: High risk due to 20% in junk bonds? Or because of long-term holdings?

Normally you are better off ignoring such shorthand labels and focusing on what the fund holds or what the fund managers do.
by Aptenodytes
Sat May 20, 2017 4:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delay SS, but claim if market plunges
Replies: 49
Views: 5885

Re: Delay SS, but claim if market plunges

If you use up your longevity-risk mitigation doing sequence-of-returns mitigation, then you no longer have something you thought was important to have.

Better to have separate strategies for the two risks, I think.
by Aptenodytes
Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 85
Views: 8793

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

We all inherit the same market history, so if expected return means historic returns it is better to look them up than to ask us. If expected returns means what do I expect from future returns, then the level of precision goes way down. Nowhere near the tenth of a percentage point. I don't estimate ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Member Here, Looking for some suggestions
Replies: 24
Views: 2834

Re: New Member Here, Looking for some suggestions

Welcome to the forum and congratulations on getting the gumption to bare your financial soul. It isn't easy. You've provided a lot of detail, but left out a few important things. 1) At present, how much of your own money are adding to the 401k and IRA? You kind of imply 0 but you don't come right ou...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Vanguard increased International Stock and International Bond in Balanced Funds and Portfolio Recommendations?
Replies: 33
Views: 6615

Re: Why has Vanguard increased International Stock and International Bond in Balanced Funds and Portfolio Recommendation

In the long term, having returns like Scenario B is worse than Scenario A, but everybody seems to fixate on the kinds of drops you see in Scenario A. That seems an exaggeration. The Sharpe Ratio is designed to incorporate both and is a pretty standard way to characterize both risk and return in a s...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Backtesting
Replies: 2
Views: 491

Re: Portfolio Backtesting

The Tools and Calculators wiki has a section on backtesting. It only has three entries, but one is the Simba backtesting spreadsheet which is quite a treasure. When you refer to accuracy problems with Portfolio Visualizer, are you talking about accuracy of the data that the Visualizer uses to drive ...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Feb 23, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming
Replies: 49
Views: 10859

Re: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming

This is not a rebalancing question. All your bond holdings have interest rate risk, not just the ones you buy in order to rebalance. Your brain is tricking you into thinking the new bond purchases matter more than the old, but it is really just the opposite. There are basically two approaches to int...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HSA investment advice and tax question
Replies: 4
Views: 1207

Re: HSA investment advice and tax question

When you are young, if you are confident you won't need to withdraw from the HSA until retirement, you should be putting your most risky assets there. I presume you have space for bonds in your 401k and tIRA, which give you tax efficiency but lack the tax-free withdrawals of the HSA. If you think th...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 28049

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I mean seriously Aloha - 1929 and 1999 valuations, with huge policy uncertaintly not priced in. And you want to continue to not take "SOME" off the table? It has already been pointed out to you that 1929 PEs are not comparable to 2017 PEs. So I'd drop that red herring from your analysis, otherwise ...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 18, 2017 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on what to do with CD coming due
Replies: 10
Views: 1471

Re: Advice on what to do with CD coming due

You are clearly saving for something, but we don't know how much you need or when you might spend it. We don't know if you have come up with a desired asset allocation or, if you have one, what it is. We don't know if the CD is in a taxable account or not (we can guess that it is not but it might no...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 18, 2017 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question on cash needs in taxable account
Replies: 19
Views: 2273

Re: Question on cash needs in taxable account

Normally the emergency fund is in cash outside of your investment portfolio, so your scenario wouldn't arise. The reason is the anxiety you point to.
by Aptenodytes
Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please help! Father is addicted to Timeshares
Replies: 19
Views: 3708

Re: PLEASE HELP! Father is addicted to TIMESHARES

I was thinking for a second that your dad might be able generate some income from the timeshares through AirBnB (though clearly less than the costs) but then I realized: shouldn't it be the case that AirBnB has killed off whatever small justification there may have once been for timeshares? AirBnB i...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the market through behavioral finance.
Replies: 51
Views: 4470

Re: Beating the market through behavioral finance.

I hope you like reading lots of quotes from smart people, because within minutes Taylor Larimore will send you about 50. They will tell you that although it is true that you can count on many people making consistent mistakes regarding market timing, the only way to outperform those mistake-makers i...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 64
Views: 7831

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

If someone asks you "what number do I need?" your first question to them should be "what do you want to do with it?" In your case you neglected to say what you will do with your prediction, so there's no way to answer. What decision are you planning to make that depends on having a prediction of por...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't stock prices go up on payday?
Replies: 43
Views: 6030

Re: Why don't stock prices go up on payday?

My first inclination in these cases is to eyeball the data. The easiest question to ask is "Does trading volume vary significantly by day of month?" It would take a bit more work to do a more precise exploration of "Does trading volume go up significantly on the days most likely to be paydays?" It o...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 18981

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

Suppose someone substituted a global cap weight fund (VT) for SCV and International Small....at what percentage of equities would it be a reasonable substitute for the Larry Portfolio? As the old joke goes, "you can't get there from here." There's no percentage of a total market fund that does what...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap
Replies: 20
Views: 2396

Re: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap

I agree with Ethelred. If the 2 accounts have low correlation it could get hard to rebalance. Moreover, you can't achieve anticorrelation (one goes up when the other goes down) without using esoteric asset categories. The normal components of a boglehead portfolio are all positively correlated with...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap
Replies: 20
Views: 2396

Re: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap

I agree with Ethelred. If the 2 accounts have low correlation it could get hard to rebalance. Moreover, you can't achieve anticorrelation (one goes up when the other goes down) without using esoteric asset categories. The normal components of a boglehead portfolio are all positively correlated with ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should retirees build a reserve for RMDs?
Replies: 16
Views: 3216

Re: Should retirees build a reserve for RMDs?

Just to be clear, it is spending that creates the concern, not RMDs. RMDs can be deposited in the asset category they came from. Spending can be lower or higher than RMDs.
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 18981

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

I'm using a Vanguard-funds-for-equities version of the Larry Portfolio and have chosen to mitigate the bond risk on the bond side only. My treasuries are 6 years or less duration. I have a large position in a stable value fund. And I've got a modest set of 10-year TIPS that will be held to maturity....
by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintaining Asset Allocation when Value Averaging
Replies: 7
Views: 941

Re: Maintaining Asset Allocation when Value Averaging

The idea of what an AA is changes under value averaging. You are having to keep a bunch of cash on the sidelines, for example, which you'd never do otherwise. Is that part of your AA or not? Or you might consider your bonds not to be part of your portfolio, and just target the value of your stocks, ...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap
Replies: 20
Views: 2396

Re: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap

You have to explain your motivation for maximizing the difference between the two accounts before we can answer you. We can't help you achieve your goal if we don't know what it is.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investors getting a free ride
Replies: 53
Views: 7529

Re: Index Investors getting a free ride

This article is merely an attempt to dress up the tired old argument that passive investing will stop working when too many people do it. Been discussed and debunked many times, including on this forum. Wrapping the argument in free-riding terms only makes it sillier. Both active and passive investo...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jan 29, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What do you include in your asset allocation calculations?
Replies: 43
Views: 5877

Re: What do you include in your asset allocation calculations?

This doesn't have to be complicated or contentious. 1) when you determine the target AA of the portfolio of investment accounts, you take into account everything that matters with respect to your need and ability to take risk, your liquidity needs, and your non-tangible behavioral psychology needs. ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: On the Int'l Funds fence
Replies: 18
Views: 2004

Re: On the Int'l Funds fence

Based on your responses to the replies the only research I think you need to do concerns the behavioral mistakes investors are prone to and the strategies that help avoid them. It looks to me like your biggest risk is not making the wrong choice on international stocks, but rather being plagued with...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 27, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is Optum Bank calculating my YTD return incorrectly?
Replies: 11
Views: 1320

Re: Is Optum Bank calculating my YTD return incorrectly?

For the numbers to agree the dates would have to be identical and you would have to have not added or subtracted anything into your HSA.

If you meet those conditions then one or both numbers is/are wrong.

Also it doesn't matter, right? I ignore all these things when I look at my accounts.
by Aptenodytes
Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard High-Yield Corp. Adm. VWEAX
Replies: 16
Views: 4510

Re: Vanguard High-Yield Corp. Adm. VWEAX

The only argument I've seen for high-yield bonds that made any sense to me is the one Rick Ferri has made, which amounts to there being a unique risk factor associated with the high-yield bond market. This is a minority view, but Rick's logic makes sense to me and I keep 25% of my "bond" holdings in...