Search found 3739 matches

by Aptenodytes
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 16528

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

Code: Select all

Taxes      27%
Savings    16% (includes HSA)
Insurance   3%
Spending   54% (includes mortgage; don't consider it investment)
by Aptenodytes
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 418
Views: 402003

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Very enlightening discussion. It has been helpful for me to a have little box in my portfolio tracking sheet, right next to my balance, that shows me very starkly what my holdings would be if stocks fell by 50% . I started doing it several years ago to help me make sure I had enough liquid non-stock...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation thoughts during Corona?
Replies: 10
Views: 984

Re: Asset allocation thoughts during Corona?

There are a few red flags you might want to address before making a decision: Why do you mention "Corona" in your post? If I didn't know anything about you other than your shift in bond percentage I would guess that you thought stocks were "cheap" right now and wanted to buy more. But because stocks...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five Ways To Make Lemonade Out Of A Lemon Market
Replies: 19
Views: 3878

Re: Five Ways To Make Lemonade Out Of A Lemon Market

Rick, with all due respect don't #1 and #2 go against "stay the course" in this volatility? Even rebalancing may be premature if things reverse as we know they can with lightning fast institutional trading. It may be best to wait until the dust settles. It depends on your course, doesn't it? Rick w...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 21, 2020 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: xkcd on stock picking
Replies: 27
Views: 3491

Re: xkcd on stock picking

I'm not sure if people are really confused about why the purported idea in the comic is wrong, or just going along with the fun. On aggregate, active funds lose money because of a) management fees and b) market timing. It has nothing to do with picking the wrong stocks. And though you can't make (a)...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jan 18, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.
Replies: 162
Views: 14421

Re: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.

Make your wife sit down with you and review a few other ways you could have made money if you could have predicted the future accurately. It won't be hard to get billions of dollars. Your $1m pales as insignificant. Buying Google and Apple at their lows, buying a few hundred PowerBall winning ticket...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Nov 20, 2019 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is dividend yield included in Gross Return?
Replies: 7
Views: 755

Re: Is dividend yield included in Gross Return?

"gross" and "net" don't really apply to these scenarios. The returns are both gross and net because nothing is taken away. But the answer to your question is that dividends are included in the returns. I don't know how UK ETFs are regulated; perhaps they aren't required to pay dividends to sharehold...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Protecting ourselves from sequence of returns risk
Replies: 69
Views: 5429

Re: Protecting ourselves from sequence of returns risk

...Consider an ascending glide path for equities. For example, say today you are 65/35 stocks/bonds. When you retire, go to 30/70 stocks/bonds and gradually increase to your desired asset allocation over the next 8-10 years. or if having to delay your retirement is also a risk you wish to mitigate,...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds in an HSA
Replies: 19
Views: 1834

Re: Bond funds in an HSA

Thanks ! In that case, where should one place total market bond funds ( assuming one wants to and under similar conditions, age 30, etc) ? Roth IRA ? Taxable ? 401K ? The wiki covers this topic thoroughly and clearly. What I've come to appreciate is that if you are near retirement, and you expect t...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Account Specific AA and Taking Advantage of Low Tax Bracket
Replies: 12
Views: 1068

Re: Account Specific AA and Taking Advantage of Low Tax Bracket

I would not base my portfolio on what I thought the marginal tax rates on income and capital gains would be in thirty years. Putting as much as possible in Roths does make sense, though there's still some risk they will be treated differently in thirty years. I would put only high risk funds in the ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 47
Views: 4661

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

You can tune your simulation to any probability distributions you want - you can shift the expected return of any asset you want, and you can shift the shape of the distribution, you can shift the correlations across after asset classes. Likewise you can shift the probability distributions of future...
by Aptenodytes
Sun May 26, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 246
Views: 32249

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

It it were obvious there wouldn't be so many people disagreeing with it. I've always thought there was a lot of magical thinking about cash, and I saw Rick's post as saying 'stick to reality.'
samsoes wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:19 pm

The original post is just an obvious statement. Nothing more, nothing less, nothing actionable.
by Aptenodytes
Sun May 26, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three assets all with negative correlations?
Replies: 18
Views: 1770

Re: Three assets all with negative correlations?

You are searching for what are called factors. No need to do the search from scratch unless you have billions to invest and can justify the expense. Nobel prize winners have done it for you. And people like Larry Swedroe have synthesized the results in understandable, actionable ways.
by Aptenodytes
Tue May 14, 2019 5:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trade VTTVX for VBIAX? Need sanity check on my AA too please
Replies: 3
Views: 535

Re: Trade VTTVX for VBIAX? Need sanity check on my AA too please

1) price/share does not matter for mutual funds. 2) The difference in expense ratio between these two funds is far less important than the difference in asset allocation (AA) within the funds. What you are seeing as similar profiles (because of stock/bond ratios) are actually pretty different when y...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Those who view everything as one portfolio - how do you determine allocations and how "funded" different goals are?
Replies: 28
Views: 2452

Re: Those who view everything as one portfolio - how do you determine allocations and how "funded" different goals are?

Here's a simpler approach. You need at least $15K in a cash emergency fund, and all the rest is invested for the long term. The $15K for car and wedding and other emergency needs isn't part of your long-term retirement portfolio where you are in your life right now, because you may need to deplete i...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How often do you check your net worth?
Replies: 257
Views: 17712

Re: How often do you check your net worth?

Liquid retirement accounts, monthly
Net worth, yearly
by Aptenodytes
Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Super Lazy portfolio, just VSMGX? [Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth]
Replies: 94
Views: 12760

Re: Super Lazy portfolio, just VSMGX?

Or the more conservative, LifeStrategy Conservative Growth (VSCGX). I have started using this fund as my primary comparison benchmark (in a virtual portfolio that matches my stock-bond mix). I use it because it is where I'd be if I gave up my a la carte approach. Even if you don't invest in one of t...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Europe funds / strategies?
Replies: 12
Views: 1415

Re: Emerging Europe funds / strategies?

It would help to see your total AA. It sounds like you are tilting to Europe with your equity holdings, but you don't say that explicitly. And you are defining Europe in this context as west of Russia and north of Africa and Syria. How big is your Europe tilt? Within Europe, how big is your emerging...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone exclude emerging markets?
Replies: 50
Views: 7483

Re: Anyone exclude emerging markets?

I overweight them because I think the preponderance of evidence suggests that they act as if they were a factor. I realize this is not an accepted fact. For comparison purposes, it seems that what matters is the percentage of your international portfolio that is emerging, as opposed to percentage of...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Health Savings Accounts (HSA) that require a minimum balance before investing worth it?
Replies: 39
Views: 4543

Re: Are Health Savings Accounts (HSA) that require a minimum balance before investing worth it?

Comparing an option that is available to you to an option that is not available cannot possibly help you make a good decision. Whether a given HSA's investment options are worse than an imaginary HSA with no cash minimum requirements is irrelevant. You should choose the HSA that is best for you, by ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell bonds, pre-pay mortgage instead?
Replies: 10
Views: 1273

Re: Sell bonds, pre-pay mortgage instead?

We have a 3% fixed rate on the mortgage... ...bond with a guaranteed 4% return Don't know if the 4% was a typo, but the "guaranteed return" would be the same as the mortgage rate: 3%. True, 3% from mortgage prepayment = 3% from mortgage prepayment. But in weighing the choice between prepaying and b...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mutual Funds to reduce risk in stock heavy portfolio for 89 year old?
Replies: 12
Views: 1556

Re: Mutual Funds to reduce risk in stock heavy portfolio for 89 year old?

Aptenodytes: You asked about their stocks. Actually, it is now > $1M.... it is actually $1.3M in just 3 stocks: 4% General Electric, 39% AT&T, 57% in Consolidated Edison. What would you select that would be counter sector"? Well, you are talking to someone who sticks to broad-based, factor-based in...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mutual Funds to reduce risk in stock heavy portfolio for 89 year old?
Replies: 12
Views: 1556

Re: Mutual Funds to reduce risk in stock heavy portfolio for 89 year old?

They seem like people who are comfortable with a 100% equity portfolio, so I wouldn't focus on the bond question. Bonds wouldn't really do anything for them. I'd focus strictly on the stock diversification question. Diversification will take the current risk they have of losing everything, which is ...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates
Replies: 13
Views: 2688

Re: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates

There's a paradox: IF you really believed it were possible to predict interest rate changes, then you would HAVE to conclude that you should never do so. Because actively managed bond funds have access to far better information than you and teams of far better-trained people than you. So if you beli...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3074
Views: 536138

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

30% stocks ("Larry" flavored)
70% "bonds" (mostly TIAA TRAD)
----------
9.0%

A couple tenths of a percentage point below my benchmark. Not a good year for SCV.
by Aptenodytes
Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond allocation-what I'm I missing
Replies: 15
Views: 1452

Re: Bond allocation-what I'm I missing

1) If you could have your portfolio lose half its value and not wish you had been able to prevent it, you don't need bonds. 2) If you are trying to have your portfolio end up as large as it possibly could at the time of your death, regardless of the consequences, you don't need bonds. Otherwise, you...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Date Funds, Rebalancing, and Bear Markets
Replies: 5
Views: 2762

Re: Target Date Funds, Rebalancing, and Bear Markets

You embedded the answer in your question: TSP L funds are rebalanced daily. This feature is one of the main reasons people buy Target Date funds. The other is the glide path. Both features are mast-tying correctives against the siren call of market timing. They are also correctives against the sin o...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 168
Views: 22133

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

I've never understood the logic of cash as an asset category within an investment portfolio. If you need to hold onto some cash for liquidity or emergency uses, you take it out of your investment portfolio and it becomes part of your checking account or emergency fund. For me that's part of the defi...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wooden flooring in kitchen
Replies: 51
Views: 6525

Re: Wooden flooring in kitchen

What do you consider impractical about it? One of the things I like about the oak floor in my kitchen is the practicality of it (one example -- no grout to clean; another example -- no threshold between kitchen and adjoining rooms which also have oak floors). If I'm still living here when the time c...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Potential Move to the Upper Valley, NH
Replies: 24
Views: 3003

Re: Potential Move to the Upper Valley, NH

You can choose how "so rural" you want it to be. In the town center of Hanover or Lebanon, for example, you'll have restaurants, movie theaters, bookstores, department stores of sorts, even some traffic and parking hassles. A mile or so out and you are in suburbia, and 5 miles out you are in the cou...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deleted
Replies: 5
Views: 1191

Re: Considering Larry portfolio for a portion of portfolio

You may want to consider rephrasing your question and giving it a new title. It really doesn't concern the Larry Portfolio at all, so it takes a while to figure what you are seeking. Is this close to what you are asking: 1) For a portfolio that will not be having withdrawals for a very long time and...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jun 13, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High risk due to 20% in junk bonds? Or because of long-term holdings?
Replies: 4
Views: 1260

Re: High risk due to 20% in junk bonds? Or because of long-term holdings?

Normally you are better off ignoring such shorthand labels and focusing on what the fund holds or what the fund managers do.
by Aptenodytes
Sat May 20, 2017 4:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delay SS, but claim if market plunges
Replies: 49
Views: 6316

Re: Delay SS, but claim if market plunges

If you use up your longevity-risk mitigation doing sequence-of-returns mitigation, then you no longer have something you thought was important to have.

Better to have separate strategies for the two risks, I think.
by Aptenodytes
Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 85
Views: 9362

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

We all inherit the same market history, so if expected return means historic returns it is better to look them up than to ask us. If expected returns means what do I expect from future returns, then the level of precision goes way down. Nowhere near the tenth of a percentage point. I don't estimate ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Member Here, Looking for some suggestions
Replies: 24
Views: 3068

Re: New Member Here, Looking for some suggestions

Welcome to the forum and congratulations on getting the gumption to bare your financial soul. It isn't easy. You've provided a lot of detail, but left out a few important things. 1) At present, how much of your own money are adding to the 401k and IRA? You kind of imply 0 but you don't come right ou...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Vanguard increased International Stock and International Bond in Balanced Funds and Portfolio Recommendations?
Replies: 33
Views: 7075

Re: Why has Vanguard increased International Stock and International Bond in Balanced Funds and Portfolio Recommendation

In the long term, having returns like Scenario B is worse than Scenario A, but everybody seems to fixate on the kinds of drops you see in Scenario A. That seems an exaggeration. The Sharpe Ratio is designed to incorporate both and is a pretty standard way to characterize both risk and return in a s...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Backtesting
Replies: 2
Views: 595

Re: Portfolio Backtesting

The Tools and Calculators wiki has a section on backtesting. It only has three entries, but one is the Simba backtesting spreadsheet which is quite a treasure. When you refer to accuracy problems with Portfolio Visualizer, are you talking about accuracy of the data that the Visualizer uses to drive ...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Feb 23, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming
Replies: 49
Views: 11279

Re: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming

This is not a rebalancing question. All your bond holdings have interest rate risk, not just the ones you buy in order to rebalance. Your brain is tricking you into thinking the new bond purchases matter more than the old, but it is really just the opposite. There are basically two approaches to int...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HSA investment advice and tax question
Replies: 4
Views: 1325

Re: HSA investment advice and tax question

When you are young, if you are confident you won't need to withdraw from the HSA until retirement, you should be putting your most risky assets there. I presume you have space for bonds in your 401k and tIRA, which give you tax efficiency but lack the tax-free withdrawals of the HSA. If you think th...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 29130

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I mean seriously Aloha - 1929 and 1999 valuations, with huge policy uncertaintly not priced in. And you want to continue to not take "SOME" off the table? It has already been pointed out to you that 1929 PEs are not comparable to 2017 PEs. So I'd drop that red herring from your analysis, otherwise ...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 18, 2017 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on what to do with CD coming due
Replies: 10
Views: 1624

Re: Advice on what to do with CD coming due

You are clearly saving for something, but we don't know how much you need or when you might spend it. We don't know if you have come up with a desired asset allocation or, if you have one, what it is. We don't know if the CD is in a taxable account or not (we can guess that it is not but it might no...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 18, 2017 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question on cash needs in taxable account
Replies: 19
Views: 2491

Re: Question on cash needs in taxable account

Normally the emergency fund is in cash outside of your investment portfolio, so your scenario wouldn't arise. The reason is the anxiety you point to.
by Aptenodytes
Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please help! Father is addicted to Timeshares
Replies: 19
Views: 4086

Re: PLEASE HELP! Father is addicted to TIMESHARES

I was thinking for a second that your dad might be able generate some income from the timeshares through AirBnB (though clearly less than the costs) but then I realized: shouldn't it be the case that AirBnB has killed off whatever small justification there may have once been for timeshares? AirBnB i...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the market through behavioral finance.
Replies: 51
Views: 4892

Re: Beating the market through behavioral finance.

I hope you like reading lots of quotes from smart people, because within minutes Taylor Larimore will send you about 50. They will tell you that although it is true that you can count on many people making consistent mistakes regarding market timing, the only way to outperform those mistake-makers i...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 64
Views: 8426

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

If someone asks you "what number do I need?" your first question to them should be "what do you want to do with it?" In your case you neglected to say what you will do with your prediction, so there's no way to answer. What decision are you planning to make that depends on having a prediction of por...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't stock prices go up on payday?
Replies: 43
Views: 7393

Re: Why don't stock prices go up on payday?

My first inclination in these cases is to eyeball the data. The easiest question to ask is "Does trading volume vary significantly by day of month?" It would take a bit more work to do a more precise exploration of "Does trading volume go up significantly on the days most likely to be paydays?" It o...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 23049

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

Suppose someone substituted a global cap weight fund (VT) for SCV and International Small....at what percentage of equities would it be a reasonable substitute for the Larry Portfolio? As the old joke goes, "you can't get there from here." There's no percentage of a total market fund that does what...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap
Replies: 20
Views: 2713

Re: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap

I agree with Ethelred. If the 2 accounts have low correlation it could get hard to rebalance. Moreover, you can't achieve anticorrelation (one goes up when the other goes down) without using esoteric asset categories. The normal components of a boglehead portfolio are all positively correlated with...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap
Replies: 20
Views: 2713

Re: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap

I agree with Ethelred. If the 2 accounts have low correlation it could get hard to rebalance. Moreover, you can't achieve anticorrelation (one goes up when the other goes down) without using esoteric asset categories. The normal components of a boglehead portfolio are all positively correlated with ...