Search found 2447 matches

by ofcmetz
Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quandary about investing to VTSAX/VTIAX
Replies: 7
Views: 1431

Re: Quandary about investing to VTSAX/VTIAX

I would learn more about asset allocation and then pick one that you can live with. Whatever you pick won't be perfect but if it's good enough then that's ok. An example of an asset allocation would be: 40% US stock funds, 20% International stock funds, 40% fixed income (cash, bonds, bond funds, CD's). This is just an example. Remember, stocks can move up and down quickly in value, so you don't want to keep money there that you plan on needing soon. Some questions to ask are: How much do I plan to spend each year out of my investments? Are some of my investments needed for spending this year or next? How liquid do I want to be? (you don't want to have to sell stock funds when they are down). How would I feel or react if my stock funds dropp...
by ofcmetz
Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Young family looking for advice on home and current finances
Replies: 8
Views: 1241

Re: Young family looking for advice on home and current finances

Lot's of bogleheads will have different opinions on this I think. A couple of my thoughts are: 600K house only look cheap because you are looking at 800K houses. Think of this as framing. I never ever want to be house poor again. I did that when I bought a house two weeks before I was married and it took one of my two monthly paychecks to make the mortgage payments. I should never have been approved for the mortgage based on my income, but I was so I thought I could afford it. I would do whatever I cold to make a cheaper housing option work. Your family is just starting out and you never know what you will want as far as house in 10 years. 4,000 square feet is way more than most people need. This is just my opinion though and I've lived ver...
by ofcmetz
Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 62
Views: 13335

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

Bogleheads, When I first posted this thread, I had come to the decision that unless something changed, I would likely work at least 2 more years at my department. Well, 2020 changed my mind. I pulled the trigger and retired August 17, 2020 a few weeks before I turned 41 years old. The situation at my department grew worse and worse with Covid and management issues. That along with the trend of rushing to judgement in a lot of use of force situations in law enforcement was really wearing me down. I knew if something major happened that my department would throw the officers involved to the wolves. My wife was more than encouraging of me to make a change. I found out that I would get to go tuition free at a major local university as a benefit...
by ofcmetz
Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Max Roth IRA?
Replies: 13
Views: 1200

Re: Max Roth IRA?

retiredjg wrote: Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:16 am Feels strange, doesn't it?
Yes it very much does. Although the pension payments at least make it feel like I’m getting a paycheck.
by ofcmetz
Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 899739

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Nicolas wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:30 pm
CodeMaster wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:53 am ^^^
A bit too risky for me. Though I do have about 24% of my wealth tied up in AAPL (which performed marvelously last year) that I bought 11 years ago. But it’s in taxable so I don’t want to sell and pay the tax.
Nice! I’ve never been bold enough to invest so much in a single company. Although I do have about 24% of my wealth in Apple products that I’ve purchased this year so . . . . :sharebeer
by ofcmetz
Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 899739

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I have a 30% fixed income, 70% equity market Index portfolio with part of that in international. Did rebalancing in March to equities and then later in the year back toward fixed income.

Total portfolio return for 2020 was 16.08%. :D
by ofcmetz
Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Max Roth IRA?
Replies: 13
Views: 1200

Re: Max Roth IRA?

retiredjg wrote: Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:05 am
ofcmetz wrote: Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:57 am Example, wife makes $20,000 and husband is on a pension? Then both can contribute for that year to their ROTHs. Does this sound correct?
Yes.
Thanks! This will be my first year without earned income since I was 16 and I wanted to double check.
by ofcmetz
Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Max Roth IRA?
Replies: 13
Views: 1200

Re: Max Roth IRA?

OP, I always invest money as soon as I have it to invest. So if you have the money to fully fund then I’d just put it all in now.
by ofcmetz
Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Max Roth IRA?
Replies: 13
Views: 1200

Re: Max Roth IRA?

It’s my understanding that if one spouse isn’t working but the other spouse is and earns enough income to cover both spouses ROTH contributions then both can contribute?

Example, wife makes $20,000 and husband is on a pension? Then both can contribute for that year to their ROTHs. Does this sound correct?
by ofcmetz
Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving to Cash?
Replies: 158
Views: 14083

Re: Moving to Cash?

Toons wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:30 am Do Nothing,
Keep Doing what you are doing.
Equities.
:happy
I second this.

If you don't have anything in fixed income, then now might be the time to revisit your overall location.

Market timing with your retirement accounts is not wise.
by ofcmetz
Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those that have taken a break from work... [Military to civilian career change]
Replies: 17
Views: 1785

Re: For those that have taken a break from work... [Military to civilian career change]

OP, I'm retiring next week from police work in my early 40's. I plan on taking two years to go to college and finish up my degree and spend that time with my kids who are hybrid schooling right now. In two weeks I start full-time at a local university. I plan on working again once I finish this degree, but we will see. I'm also interested in how this two year educational gap will affect my future career. Between my wife's income and my pension we don't have to touch investments are will continue to save.

I've been on leave for 5 weeks and have been offered numerous jobs in my field already. Definitely keep the network connections up, but I think it's fine to enjoy life with the family for a bit. You have earned it.

Cheers!
by ofcmetz
Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the S&P 500 and Total Stock Market Funds No Longer Diversified?
Replies: 14
Views: 2750

Re: Are the S&P 500 and Total Stock Market Funds No Longer Diversified?

I personally believe that owning everything at market weight (TSM) is an excellent default setting as a diversified portfolio. Garland Whizzer Excellent Post on the topic Garland Whizzer. I only didn't quote it all because people should look back and read it all. In a world of not zero, but probably negative real returns on bond funds we have equity priced at premium levels because that is all there is for the average investor to make some real returns. Tech is loved by all traders and priced even higher. It probably isn't totally ideal how tech moves index funds due to cap weighting, but index funds are better than most everything else when it comes to owning equity for the individual investor. Although, most should of us should have just...
by ofcmetz
Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pension vs Invest
Replies: 12
Views: 1552

Re: Pension vs Invest

I'm in the process of retiring on a state pension right now at a fairly young age.That being said, I have trouble trusting a business or a government to run a pension well and have been and will continue to invest my own money as well. It's likely the company is trying to lower their liability and also trying to slowly get out of the pension game.I think it's fine and about even staying in the pension or taking that money and investing it on your own.Either decision will not likely change your future much, and you can probably find the one that fits you the best. The main hangup would probably be how the pension vesting works. Most do not stay long enough at their employers to get fully vested and pensions therefore tend to transfer wealth ...
by ofcmetz
Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with Home Equity
Replies: 52
Views: 4188

Re: What to do with Home Equity

In your situation, I see no reason to borrow against your home. Yeah, maybe you could do better, but you could also do a whole lot worse. I would keep the equity there and only pull it out in a dire financial emergency.
by ofcmetz
Sat May 23, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do the super-rich get their equity exposure?
Replies: 6
Views: 1232

Re: How do the super-rich get their equity exposure?

I keep my 100 million (I mean 100's of thousands) in index funds. :sharebeer

Seriously, you have 25 million? From what I've heard a lot of private banks have you in lots of stuff from their more expensive funds, to individual stocks, etc. It seems like they make it more complicated than it needs to be to justify what they are doing. It isn't like this for all, but has been the case for people I know.
by ofcmetz
Sat May 23, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 72
Views: 7526

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

The big question is will we have disinflation or actual deflation? In the case of deflation, real yields could still be positive even if money market funds are have negative nominal yields. Getting 0.6% on those treasuries or 0.01% on a money market fund might not be that bad.

Wonder how TIAA will sustain its guaranteed 3% on its Traditional account?
by ofcmetz
Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts
Replies: 63
Views: 7215

Re: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts

This is interesting because it means that the Federal Reserve has given up on their decades long requirement for bank reserve requirements. Good summary of reserve requirements and history. You write like you might be my Econ Professor. I'm taking Econ "Money and Banking" this semester and this was a good review for a section of my upcoming final. I'm assuming that this further blurs the line between M1 and M2 as well. Basically it seems a checking account and a savings account are pretty much the same thing. Although with online banking that seems to have almost happened. I agree with the previous poster that it makes sense to have both for security reasons to keep the checking account from being temporarily drained by fraud (th...
by ofcmetz
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 22164

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

flaccidsteele wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:56 pm
Almost zero 0%

I’m in my 40s. $5m+ NW. No debt

It’s not a fortune, but it compounds well enough

Back when I first tried to retire I got bored so I went back to work

I didn’t see the point in investing much of my pay. I spent it on some vacations and toys and stored some of it as cash

The stored cash deployed during the virus crisis worked out well
Congrats! But I hate to break the news to you. Yes, it is in fact a fortune.
by ofcmetz
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 22164

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

dbadalam wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:46 pm Paycheck? Who needs paychecks in this forum... getting paid is for the poor! :sharebeer
:sharebeer

Every time I see a thread like this I look at it and think, wow I don't save much compared to some of these bogleheads. We have made it our goal to save at least 25% of our gross pay every year. In our 20's we started at 10% and worked it up to 25% these last few years in our late 30's and early 40's. Him a Police Officer, Her a nurse.
by ofcmetz
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Treasury Only MM Fund now closed
Replies: 7
Views: 1579

Re: Fidelity Treasury Only MM Fund now closed

FZFXX is the Fidelity Treasury Money Market Fund. It's my default MM fund at Fidelity. I looked at the holdings at the time and it seemed very similar to the now closed fund. Well, at the end of last month it was two-thirds repos , unlike FDLXX which is (more than) entirely made up of Treasuries. (Also, currently its 7-day yield is 0.01% and is positive only because of a subsidy, a.k.a. waiver, from Fidelity.) As far as repos go isn't the fund just loaning investors money short term with some type of collateral (presumably treasuries) for a short period of time, say overnight to a week or so? My understanding of repurchase agreements is pretty basic. Wouldn't it be just as safe as just owning the actual treasuries? I don't think the fund i...
by ofcmetz
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Treasury Only MM Fund now closed
Replies: 7
Views: 1579

Re: Fidelity Treasury Only MM Fund now closed

FZFXX is the Fidelity Treasury Money Market Fund. It's my default MM fund at Fidelity. I looked at the holdings at the time and it seemed very similar to the now closed fund.
by ofcmetz
Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 277
Views: 23693

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

I decided a long time ago that it would be simpler for me to not slice and dice, but to go three fund. Part of this was because of the threat of under performance over extended periods of time, but the other part was that our retirement providers kept moving towards really cheap broad based index funds. It has also been way easier for me to stay the course by going three fund.

I am rooting for you SCV investors though just like I rooted for Kansas City in this years Super Bowl. In 50 years or so ya'll will get to say, "see, I told you so". :sharebeer
by ofcmetz
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 184
Views: 15548

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

burt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:04 am Age 64 (retired)
30/70
I was comfortable with this AA before the crash.
I'm really comfortable with it now.
Perfect allocation to sleep at night.

My dad is a few years older than you and is 100% stocks. We were on a cruise together in early January and I talked with him a lot on the value of fixed income. He said he was going to make a change and go more conservative. He never did get around to this before this current crash. I’m wishing he was more invested like you.
by ofcmetz
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 184
Views: 15548

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

We manage a his and hers portfolio for a married couple. I have a pension and we have recession proof jobs. I’m 40 and she is 43.

Our allocation was 70/30 going into this crisis. I’m tiptoeing towards and 80/20 allocation currently as I realized I could take more risk than I had been taking.
by ofcmetz
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of stocks?
Replies: 101
Views: 8032

Re: What is the point of stocks?

onourway wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:58 am
Pepper11 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:27 pm I am not trolling. If you are under 50 and you do not have a negative cumulative return, please post on this tread to give us hope. I will be shocked if anyone does.
Show your work.
Just because you say you aren’t trolling doesn’t mean it isn’true.
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651088

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

People who keep comparing this to 1929 are missing a key factor. In 1929, there was no FDIC insurance. Hence, cash wasn't even safe unless it was in your hands. There were massive bank failures over the next decade and even those who should have had enough suddenly found that they didn't. This is a health crisis that is causing economic harm and I don't get comparisons to the Great Depression. Long estimates for this crisis are for a 18 months and short ones are for a few months. There is no way we do 18 months of social isolation in this country. I think we will see 60 days and then as testing for both infection as and possibly one for immunity ramp up, we will be able to target hard hit communities while opening up other areas. If the pri...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young people: Only thing that matters now is maintaining income
Replies: 30
Views: 3788

Re: Young people: Only thing that matters now is maintaining income

OP I agree. If you maintain your job and your health then no reason to change your plan. Just keep saving and plugging along. We will have more crashes between now and when we need to sell and live off this money in our hopefully older age.

If you don't have fixed income or an emergency fund and may lose your job, then that would be a reason to sell enough to set up a nice emergency fund. Hopefully that isn't the case for most bogleheads, even though a lot of young workers may be in that situation soon.
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 16052

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

3% drops used to move my emotion, then it was the 5% drops that got to me. I think 10% drops are the new normal. So, if we aren't going to hit three circuit breakers in one day then it's not worth even cracking open a beer over.

(I'm jesting, and am not at all comfortable watching so much wealth disappear this quickly).
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Stay the course does not mean never ever adjust your course. When your goal changes your route changes; when an obstacle appears in your path you steer around it. You can in fact change course as needed. You just need to be deliberate about it, not always chasing after the latest hot trend. I do a portfolio review every spring to determine whether to adjust course. By 2006 it became clear that the housing bubble was going to create a lot of collateral damage when it popped. So we adjusted accordingly. Not optimally - I had no crystal ball - but enough that 2008 did little harm, and by the time it was well in the rearview mirror we came out ahead of where we would have been with no downturn. The last few years have been unusual. I can’t rem...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

stay the course doesnt always work - japan in the 1990s. Sometimes it is better to sell and lower your risk. But of course getting in at a low price is always good. Stay the course when the most populated country is shut down and there is an impending pandemic is probably not a good idea (feb). But selling now is far more controversial. Stay the course, on the other hand, is great for those that dont mind the losses , and dont look at the risks of black swans. good luck to all, and stay healthy. Who doesn't mind the loses? :confused Does selling now lower your risk? Maybe it just locks in your losses? Or maybe it increases the risk that you won't get back in at the right time and therefore never meet your retirement goals? Many who stay th...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Index Fan wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:26 pm When 'Stay The Course' is scorned on this board, you know things are hysterical.

It's fascinating to watch all of this.
I couldn't agree more. I really do all the market timers come out ahead, but I know I don't have the stomach for jumping in and out like that.
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

This is just insane. I have been staying the course so far on a 70/30 portfolio but I am almost reaching the point where I can’t take it anymore. The news is getting worse and worse by the hour, NYC is going to get massively worse before it gets better and soon all the other states will follow, and all I can hear is the parroting “the market has already priced all this in, the market expects all this already!”, and yet this is always followed by a new evening of futures dropping and a subsequent 10% daily decrease during trading hours. The “market” has not priced in anything yet. Every day, as the US situation becomes closer and closer to Italy and China, more investors will freak out and liquidate their investments. Most people have not p...
by ofcmetz
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I've been following this thread for weeks now, and I still have one very simple question: can someone quantify why we should expect global public companies to be worth 30% less than they were at the start of the year going forward? Simply put: Vanguard Total World is down over 30% from the start of the year. Perhaps it was overvalued. Perhaps a lot of companies are going to fold. But I have yet to see someone lay out an argument for a permanent 1/3 decrease in the average value of public companies around the world. Even with years of slow growth, how would that work? I'm not an expert in any sense of the word on this, but I can't quite wrap my head around the idea. Anyone want to try and put numbers to it? I get that unemployment is going ...
by ofcmetz
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

That being said, I'm 40 and am doing kind of the opposite. I'm tiptoeing in more during this ride down. I'm slowly going from a 70/30 to an 80/20 allocation in 1% moves until I hit the minimum amount of fixed income that I want to keep. It appears that our jobs will be stable through this and I see the efficient market hypothesis not being able to explain moves like we are having. There will be a lot of pain and loss, but the economy will roar back again at some point and I want to own a bunch of equity when it does. I'm glad your job is stable. I think for a lot of people, that is just not true. I've seen 20% unemployment forecasts and that seems optimistic to me. Global business is at a complete standstill, and most of us are shut in for...
by ofcmetz
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

With CA and now NY on lockdown, I'm shocked the market isn't reacting 5% down today. Looks like the market reacted again in the last hour or so. I do have this feeling that people want to sell more on Fridays rather than risk the weekend's news. One weekend at some point these sellers may get burned. I only hope that is the case since I'm long in the market. I just read the post about the 60/40 older couple deciding to capitulate and sell at this point. You didn't do much harm in my opinion because you really are only down about 20% total which is just a few years gains. I understand your reasons and wonder if my dad will come to this same conclusion. That being said, I'm 40 and am doing kind of the opposite. I'm tiptoeing in more during t...
by ofcmetz
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thanks Bogleheads! You have helped me with market timing!
Replies: 30
Views: 5970

Re: Thanks Bogleheads! You have helped me with market timing!

I’m so jealous. I would love to have been off the grid for the last few weeks. In fact, make that the last few weeks as well as the next few weeks to come.

Take care everyone.
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651088

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Wowsers, could be worst close since 1987. I've got to put in an order to at least buy a little to total stock market now. I was only 8 years old then and had no "dry powder" to buy in 87.
by ofcmetz
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Stef wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:25 am I just don't get it. Isn't the further spread and possible shutdown of whole industries already priced in? I mean what's expectation from the market? That the amount of infected people will suddenly drop and we're back to the usual by May 2020?
Market seems to have priced in a best case scenario initially. Now it's gravitating towards a worst case one. Which is correct?

I'd be surprised and delighted if things were back to normal in two months by May. I'm guessing it will take a bit longer than that.
by ofcmetz
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I think some people were really blinded here. There were so many threads in january. Why wouldnt people rebalance to account for the risk? To each his or her own. you certainly can see when an contagious disease was going to be a worldwide phenomenon. It was spreading like crazy on a cruise ship and china was on lockdown. Anyway, for those that got out, getting back in anytime is beneficial compared to dow 29000. The question is whether or not to get in now or at Dow 20000 or lower. My advice is to rebalance inwards when one's risk tolerance allows. The real question is whether or not we are entering a depression or a prolonged bear. I hope warm weather helps the virus spread to slow down. I hope eveyrone stays healthy. I can't imagine mak...
by ofcmetz
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

valuables wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:46 pm There are plenty of people who, by no fault of their own, can't afford to save for an emergency much less have one. Think now about what you can do with your significant resources to help someone who needs help, especially now. Their version of timing the market bottom might be figuring out when to spend their ten bucks on food.
Excellent point valuables. After this virus threat passes, this will ben an important and opportune time for charity towards our fellow man. One of great pleasures of having extra resources is the ability to give to those in need.
by ofcmetz
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

This is proving to be a test of our chosen asset allocations just like 2008. For me, it's all still just numbers and I'm not feeling any pressure to capitulate or any need to change my planned allocation. Probably this is due to how things are going with this at work. Work has me more distracted by more serious things than market movements. Or maybe better put, it puts the market movements into proper perspective.

This is also going to be a test of our courage as members of the human race. Prayers for those in the medical community who will fight this on the front lines in the weeks to come.
by ofcmetz
Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Understanding what the medical frontliners are going through may help us better understand the potential impact of the virus and the implications on the market. From the World Economic Forum: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/suddenly-the-er-is-collapsing-a-doctors-stark-warning-from-italys-coronavirus-epicentre This is exactly what I'm hearing. Good link as to what is like on the front lines of the fight and to why the economic damage of community quarantines is likely worth it. I think that sacrificing economic growth like what Italy is doing to keep the health sector functional is worth the massive financial cost. Hospitals only have so much capacity and when it's used us, more lives will be lost quickly. I think by then end of thi...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651088

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I'm not trading individual stocks, but just watching and I see Royal Caribbean Cruise Line is down 19.8% right now. If that hits 20% does that stock halt trading for the rest of the day? That is crazy its down -62% from all time high in February. :shock: Now imagine those poor employees who work there. Not only their job is in jeopardy, but if they are heavy on buying their company stocks, their saving money too is at big risk. Kind of Enron scenario (but without the foul play from the company side) I’ve been on 8 Royal Carribean cruises. The last two were in December and this January. They have all had great service and been some of my best vacations. I feel so bad for what’s happening to them. There is no way I could of predicted this ju...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651088

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

andronikus wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:12 am
columbia wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:57 am
SocalLiving wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:54 am
andronikus wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:40 am If trading is halted for the rest of the day (pre 4pm) Do mutual fund orders execute?
+1
Can someone explain what happens to automatic contributions (mutual funds) if trading halts.

Shouldn’t be a problem. Stocks are trading and will result in the NAV of mutual funds going up or down, as usual. You should presume it will be down... :o
But what if trading is halted for the day (ie. final circuit breaker triggered)? Do the mutual fund orders still execute?
Man, I was just wondering the same thing.
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651088

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

My allocation of 70% equities/ 30% fixed income is holding up again to another drop. I’m on night shift and I’ll be able to sleep today while this happens. All my new money from paychecks is going to equities for awhile. The market stop a few minute ago triggered a drinking break for me. :sharebeer :sharebeer :sharebeer
by ofcmetz
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

If my wife or myself lost a job somehow because of this crisis, then I might change my strategy as that might change my risk tolerance. I've always expected that there would be times in the future where my equities would crash 50% in value and then take an extended period to recover. On top of this there is always the chance that they don't ever recover to the highs that you held them at. This should be taken into account when coming up with any asset allocation. I'm currently 70/30 (equities/fixed income). I recently rebalanced back to fixed income after last years run up in equities prices. Yesterday, I just felt like I had to do something so I moved a few percent of my fixed income (which had already risen past 30%) back into equities. I...
by ofcmetz
Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392194

Re: Coronavirus and the market

If I traded on noise then the news about this novel virus would make me concerned about holding equities and probably have me making changes in my allocations. My fixed income allocation is as high as it is because I didn't want things like this or financial crashes like 2008 to cause me to want to change my allocation. Most current news and suspicions about this coronavirus are baked into current market prices already if you subscribe to any version of the efficient market hypothesis. My suspicion is that new news (see what I did there) will likely cause further drops in equity. I'm glad I don't trade based on my suspicions though because I would have been wrong so many times. Things likes threats of pandemics and global financial crisis w...
by ofcmetz
Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 62
Views: 13335

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

The numbers say stay until 2022, but if you're burned out, then you seriously need to consider retiring. Law enforcement takes a toll over time. I found the day I was eligible (we called it KMA for kiss my ...) I felt less burned out, knowing I could leave any day. I stayed a little longer but dropped my retirement papers one day when I realized I really didn't want to be there anymore. My pension was only going to increase about $1400 a year though, so I wasn't leaving as much on the table as you, and I was age 50 so I had fewer years left to enjoy retirement. I'm glad I left when I did. I'm healthier and feel much better overall. The best part is I'm in control of my daily schedule. Thanks for your service Hale. I'm feeling that reductio...
by ofcmetz
Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 62
Views: 13335

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

I know this isn't a purely money decision and that's why I like getting the answers that people on the board have provided. There is the money aspect but there is so much more. I really enjoy that I'm getting answers that recommend both sides, as well as answers that don't just consider the money aspect. Like most of my posts on this subject, I will sit down with my wife and let here read through all of this with me while we continue our ongoing discussion on this. I really haven't decided yet on this and suspect I won't until this summer.
by ofcmetz
Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 62
Views: 13335

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

hand wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:14 am
ofcmetz wrote: Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:11 am If I expire prior to her, then my wife will receive 75% of the pension payout for the rest of her life.
Hopefully theoretical, and obviously low liklihood, but what happens if you expire before starting the pension?

If a not started pension does not transfer, that is a very strong argument in favor of retiring earlier.
She get's 75% of whatever pension benefit I've earned if I expire before the end of this post. That is already locked in because of my years.