Search found 2437 matches

by ofcmetz
Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pension vs Invest
Replies: 12
Views: 1300

Re: Pension vs Invest

I'm in the process of retiring on a state pension right now at a fairly young age.That being said, I have trouble trusting a business or a government to run a pension well and have been and will continue to invest my own money as well. It's likely the company is trying to lower their liability and a...
by ofcmetz
Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with Home Equity
Replies: 52
Views: 3187

Re: What to do with Home Equity

In your situation, I see no reason to borrow against your home. Yeah, maybe you could do better, but you could also do a whole lot worse. I would keep the equity there and only pull it out in a dire financial emergency.
by ofcmetz
Sat May 23, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do the super-rich get their equity exposure?
Replies: 6
Views: 1016

Re: How do the super-rich get their equity exposure?

I keep my 100 million (I mean 100's of thousands) in index funds. :sharebeer Seriously, you have 25 million? From what I've heard a lot of private banks have you in lots of stuff from their more expensive funds, to individual stocks, etc. It seems like they make it more complicated than it needs to ...
by ofcmetz
Sat May 23, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 5018

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

The big question is will we have disinflation or actual deflation? In the case of deflation, real yields could still be positive even if money market funds are have negative nominal yields. Getting 0.6% on those treasuries or 0.01% on a money market fund might not be that bad. Wonder how TIAA will s...
by ofcmetz
Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts
Replies: 41
Views: 3574

Re: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts

This is interesting because it means that the Federal Reserve has given up on their decades long requirement for bank reserve requirements. Good summary of reserve requirements and history. You write like you might be my Econ Professor. I'm taking Econ "Money and Banking" this semester and this was...
by ofcmetz
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 16571

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

Almost zero 0% I’m in my 40s. $5m+ NW. No debt It’s not a fortune, but it compounds well enough Back when I first tried to retire I got bored so I went back to work I didn’t see the point in investing much of my pay. I spent it on some vacations and toys and stored some of it as cash The stored cas...
by ofcmetz
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 16571

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

Paycheck? Who needs paychecks in this forum... getting paid is for the poor! :sharebeer :sharebeer Every time I see a thread like this I look at it and think, wow I don't save much compared to some of these bogleheads. We have made it our goal to save at least 25% of our gross pay every year. In ou...
by ofcmetz
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Treasury Only MM Fund now closed
Replies: 7
Views: 1252

Re: Fidelity Treasury Only MM Fund now closed

FZFXX is the Fidelity Treasury Money Market Fund. It's my default MM fund at Fidelity. I looked at the holdings at the time and it seemed very similar to the now closed fund. Well, at the end of last month it was two-thirds repos , unlike FDLXX which is (more than) entirely made up of Treasuries. (...
by ofcmetz
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Treasury Only MM Fund now closed
Replies: 7
Views: 1252

Re: Fidelity Treasury Only MM Fund now closed

FZFXX is the Fidelity Treasury Money Market Fund. It's my default MM fund at Fidelity. I looked at the holdings at the time and it seemed very similar to the now closed fund.
by ofcmetz
Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16665

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

I decided a long time ago that it would be simpler for me to not slice and dice, but to go three fund. Part of this was because of the threat of under performance over extended periods of time, but the other part was that our retirement providers kept moving towards really cheap broad based index fu...
by ofcmetz
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 170
Views: 9455

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

Age 64 (retired) 30/70 I was comfortable with this AA before the crash. I'm really comfortable with it now. Perfect allocation to sleep at night. My dad is a few years older than you and is 100% stocks. We were on a cruise together in early January and I talked with him a lot on the value of fixed ...
by ofcmetz
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 170
Views: 9455

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

We manage a his and hers portfolio for a married couple. I have a pension and we have recession proof jobs. I’m 40 and she is 43.

Our allocation was 70/30 going into this crisis. I’m tiptoeing towards and 80/20 allocation currently as I realized I could take more risk than I had been taking.
by ofcmetz
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of stocks?
Replies: 101
Views: 6671

Re: What is the point of stocks?

onourway wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:58 am
Pepper11 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:27 pm
I am not trolling. If you are under 50 and you do not have a negative cumulative return, please post on this tread to give us hope. I will be shocked if anyone does.
Show your work.
Just because you say you aren’t trolling doesn’t mean it isn’true.
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19266
Views: 2675014

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

People who keep comparing this to 1929 are missing a key factor. In 1929, there was no FDIC insurance. Hence, cash wasn't even safe unless it was in your hands. There were massive bank failures over the next decade and even those who should have had enough suddenly found that they didn't. This is a ...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young people: Only thing that matters now is maintaining income
Replies: 30
Views: 3291

Re: Young people: Only thing that matters now is maintaining income

OP I agree. If you maintain your job and your health then no reason to change your plan. Just keep saving and plugging along. We will have more crashes between now and when we need to sell and live off this money in our hopefully older age. If you don't have fixed income or an emergency fund and may...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13412

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

3% drops used to move my emotion, then it was the 5% drops that got to me. I think 10% drops are the new normal. So, if we aren't going to hit three circuit breakers in one day then it's not worth even cracking open a beer over. (I'm jesting, and am not at all comfortable watching so much wealth dis...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Stay the course does not mean never ever adjust your course. When your goal changes your route changes; when an obstacle appears in your path you steer around it. You can in fact change course as needed. You just need to be deliberate about it, not always chasing after the latest hot trend. I do a ...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

stay the course doesnt always work - japan in the 1990s. Sometimes it is better to sell and lower your risk. But of course getting in at a low price is always good. Stay the course when the most populated country is shut down and there is an impending pandemic is probably not a good idea (feb). But...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Index Fan wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:26 pm
When 'Stay The Course' is scorned on this board, you know things are hysterical.

It's fascinating to watch all of this.
I couldn't agree more. I really do all the market timers come out ahead, but I know I don't have the stomach for jumping in and out like that.
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

This is just insane. I have been staying the course so far on a 70/30 portfolio but I am almost reaching the point where I can’t take it anymore. The news is getting worse and worse by the hour, NYC is going to get massively worse before it gets better and soon all the other states will follow, and...
by ofcmetz
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I've been following this thread for weeks now, and I still have one very simple question: can someone quantify why we should expect global public companies to be worth 30% less than they were at the start of the year going forward? Simply put: Vanguard Total World is down over 30% from the start of...
by ofcmetz
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

That being said, I'm 40 and am doing kind of the opposite. I'm tiptoeing in more during this ride down. I'm slowly going from a 70/30 to an 80/20 allocation in 1% moves until I hit the minimum amount of fixed income that I want to keep. It appears that our jobs will be stable through this and I see...
by ofcmetz
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

With CA and now NY on lockdown, I'm shocked the market isn't reacting 5% down today. Looks like the market reacted again in the last hour or so. I do have this feeling that people want to sell more on Fridays rather than risk the weekend's news. One weekend at some point these sellers may get burne...
by ofcmetz
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thanks Bogleheads! You have helped me with market timing!
Replies: 30
Views: 5129

Re: Thanks Bogleheads! You have helped me with market timing!

I’m so jealous. I would love to have been off the grid for the last few weeks. In fact, make that the last few weeks as well as the next few weeks to come.

Take care everyone.
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19266
Views: 2675014

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Wowsers, could be worst close since 1987. I've got to put in an order to at least buy a little to total stock market now. I was only 8 years old then and had no "dry powder" to buy in 87.
by ofcmetz
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I just don't get it. Isn't the further spread and possible shutdown of whole industries already priced in? I mean what's expectation from the market? That the amount of infected people will suddenly drop and we're back to the usual by May 2020? Market seems to have priced in a best case scenario in...
by ofcmetz
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I think some people were really blinded here. There were so many threads in january. Why wouldnt people rebalance to account for the risk? To each his or her own. you certainly can see when an contagious disease was going to be a worldwide phenomenon. It was spreading like crazy on a cruise ship an...
by ofcmetz
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

There are plenty of people who, by no fault of their own, can't afford to save for an emergency much less have one. Think now about what you can do with your significant resources to help someone who needs help, especially now. Their version of timing the market bottom might be figuring out when to...
by ofcmetz
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

This is proving to be a test of our chosen asset allocations just like 2008. For me, it's all still just numbers and I'm not feeling any pressure to capitulate or any need to change my planned allocation. Probably this is due to how things are going with this at work. Work has me more distracted by ...
by ofcmetz
Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Understanding what the medical frontliners are going through may help us better understand the potential impact of the virus and the implications on the market. From the World Economic Forum: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/suddenly-the-er-is-collapsing-a-doctors-stark-warning-from-italys-co...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19266
Views: 2675014

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I'm not trading individual stocks, but just watching and I see Royal Caribbean Cruise Line is down 19.8% right now. If that hits 20% does that stock halt trading for the rest of the day? That is crazy its down -62% from all time high in February. :shock: Now imagine those poor employees who work th...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19266
Views: 2675014

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

If trading is halted for the rest of the day (pre 4pm) Do mutual fund orders execute? +1 Can someone explain what happens to automatic contributions (mutual funds) if trading halts. Shouldn’t be a problem. Stocks are trading and will result in the NAV of mutual funds going up or down, as usual. You...
by ofcmetz
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19266
Views: 2675014

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

My allocation of 70% equities/ 30% fixed income is holding up again to another drop. I’m on night shift and I’ll be able to sleep today while this happens. All my new money from paychecks is going to equities for awhile. The market stop a few minute ago triggered a drinking break for me. :sharebeer ...
by ofcmetz
Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

If my wife or myself lost a job somehow because of this crisis, then I might change my strategy as that might change my risk tolerance. I've always expected that there would be times in the future where my equities would crash 50% in value and then take an extended period to recover. On top of this ...
by ofcmetz
Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4001
Views: 305089

Re: Coronavirus and the market

If I traded on noise then the news about this novel virus would make me concerned about holding equities and probably have me making changes in my allocations. My fixed income allocation is as high as it is because I didn't want things like this or financial crashes like 2008 to cause me to want to ...
by ofcmetz
Fri Feb 21, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

The numbers say stay until 2022, but if you're burned out, then you seriously need to consider retiring. Law enforcement takes a toll over time. I found the day I was eligible (we called it KMA for kiss my ...) I felt less burned out, knowing I could leave any day. I stayed a little longer but drop...
by ofcmetz
Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

I know this isn't a purely money decision and that's why I like getting the answers that people on the board have provided. There is the money aspect but there is so much more. I really enjoy that I'm getting answers that recommend both sides, as well as answers that don't just consider the money as...
by ofcmetz
Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

If I expire prior to her, then my wife will receive 75% of the pension payout for the rest of her life. Hopefully theoretical, and obviously low liklihood, but what happens if you expire before starting the pension? If a not started pension does not transfer, that is a very strong argument in favor...
by ofcmetz
Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

Perhaps, but it's a market, and I'm loathe to criticize it. As far as I'm concerned, our police officers have earned it. Recruits can go seek out whichever agency offers the best compensation, between base and pension. Cities can lower their pension benefits, but presumably, cutting the pension ben...
by ofcmetz
Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

3. Can you put in for a different assignment, like a desk job or a teaching position at the police academy? Burnout is completely normal - expected, even. I completely understand the temptation to give it up, but these are also prime earnings years for you (especially with that pension vesting you ...
by ofcmetz
Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

I’d stay the extra three years. It’s crazy to me that state and local governments can afford these pensions. Effectively over the 21 years you’ve worked, you’ve contributed less than $150k personally. Assuming the PD chips in an equal amount, that’s still only $300k total in contributions... Yet yo...
by ofcmetz
Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

Wow, that sounds like a great pension. It opens up a lot of possibilities for you. What does your wife plan on doing? If she’s plans to work many more years, then it looks like you are more than good to go, financially. If it, then more careful planning is required. But, I’d say if you don’t need t...
by ofcmetz
Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

A few things that might matter. 1) Will you get Social Security in addition to the pension? Some government pensions are instead of Social Security. I don’t participate or pay into social security. My wife does with her job though. While you are working if you get raise, even if just for inflation,...
by ofcmetz
Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

Try Firecalc (https://www.firecalc.com) * Retiring 2020 * non-COLA pension of $65,000/year starting in 2020 * withdrawing $60,000/year for 50 years (until age 90) adjusted for CPI * $700k invested in 60/40 total market portfolio With the above it says there's a 92% chance of not running out of mone...
by ofcmetz
Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

What would a lifetime annuity of $9,000/year starting in two years at age 42 cost? Isn't that what you would be giving up by leaving now versus in two years? Unless I really hated my job, that would be hard for me to walk away from. Wow, that looks like it would cost about $210,000 for the $750 a m...
by ofcmetz
Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

A couple of questions come to mind when I look at your situation: How many hours a week do you work on average and do you enjoy working? I ask this because it’s not clear to me why you want to semi-retire rather than fully retire. Between your investments (assuming a 4% withdrawal rate), spouse’s i...
by ofcmetz
Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

Is there any option to go part time on the police force and continue to work the security details which you enjoy? My department doesn't have this option. I could become a reserve deputy at the local Sheriff's Office and work similar details if I put in the minimal reserve hours required each month...
by ofcmetz
Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

Re: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

Can you just say no to the overtime and night shifts? This might be an easy way to transition through the next two years to the max pension. I'm forced in my position to work the night shift. Some of the overtime is voluntary, some isn't. A lot is working security for major sporting events which is...
by ofcmetz
Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?
Replies: 52
Views: 9526

I'm 40 and when do I retire? first world problem?

Married: Him age 40, Her age 43. Investments: $700,000 Her income $95,000 Yearly expenses: ~$100,000. This will drop after the house is paid off in 4 years and the kids finish private school in 6 years. I find myself in an interesting situation at work with my police job. Currently I make a base pay...
by ofcmetz
Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Most Hated - and Favorite - IPS Rule
Replies: 24
Views: 3302

Re: My Most Hated - and Favorite - IPS Rule

Good rule, OP. So many times I have considered some change for a few months and then not made it. Early on in my investing career, I made changes the hour I thought of making them. Now it seems I just think, read, and post about changes while making very few. Thanks for sharing.