Search found 2588 matches

by SimpleGift
Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4552

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

Yeah, we're heading for a future where a small # of fund companies - Vanguard plus perhaps Blackrock, Fidelity and maybe another few, will have, collectively, effective voting control of most large US listed companies. I wouldn't be surprised if, before this happens, we see a punitive legal or legi...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4552

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

There's little doubt that Vanguard intends to keep on growing. From a Allan Roth article : Vanguard executives shy away from making forecasts, but the company is investing heavily in infrastructure, says Michael Miller, managing director of the company's planning and development group. "We want to h...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?
Replies: 7
Views: 762

Re: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?

SimpleGift , you mention in one of your reference posts that looking at your portfolio through the "economic exposure" lense, 35% US, 32% Developed Markets and 33% EM, sounds like a good allocation to you. Why is that? How do you get to these numbers? Are there any studies or research done to sugge...
by SimpleGift
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies
Replies: 40
Views: 3406

Re: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies

What do others think? Has Jack Bogle commented on this? Two unbiased, comprehensive papers on this subject, both published fairly recently: • From Credit Suisse Bank: The Incredible Shrinking Universe of Stocks • From an economics journal: Is the US Public Corporation in Trouble? Though the univers...
by SimpleGift
Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1606

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Do you know of where to find stats on net change in ownership (who owns what) of Treasury bonds or other parts of the bond market? One can find monthly changes in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries here . There looks to be both recent and historical data, broken down by individual foreign countrie...
by SimpleGift
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1606

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Are bond investors at any given moment more scared of reinvestment risk or inflation risk, or something else? What's the balance? How is the term risk being priced? Isn't this a case of the U.S. Fed raising short term rates, but international investors piling into longer term Treasuries (driving th...
by SimpleGift
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower Interest Rates in Aging Populations
Replies: 2
Views: 633

Re: Lower Interest Rates in Aging Populations

It's worth adding that there are some 20 countries today that are not only aging rapidly, but have shrinking or stagnating populations (i.e., negative or zero population growth) — including Japan, Germany, Austria, Italy, Greece, Poland, Czech Republic, Russia and Ukraine — and whose only hope is pr...
by SimpleGift
Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower Interest Rates in Aging Populations
Replies: 2
Views: 633

Lower Interest Rates in Aging Populations

Following up on a recent Forum discussion about negative interest rates, this post makes the case that low and negative rates around the world today are just a symptom, and that their real underlying cause is aging populations. Many developed regions of the world have been undergoing a dramatic demo...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4545

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

First from Roger Gibson's classic book, Asset Allocation in the early 1990s, and then from William Bernstein's online journal, Efficient Frontier in the later 1990s. Gibson's book taught the basic principles of balancing risk and reward in portfolio construction, and Bernstein's journal showed how t...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment
Replies: 34
Views: 3282

Re: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment

An informative chart from the Financial Times a few days ago, showing the history and scale of the negative interest rate experiment for the world as a whole: https://s33.postimg.org/c7qmsj7m7/http---www.ft.com-fastft-files-2017-11-image-17.png Source: Financial Times With the prospect that the Bank...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?
Replies: 7
Views: 762

Re: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?

Now we could scale this to 100% and the result would be: EU: 22.81% NA: 29.23% EM: 37.81% Pacific: 10.13% This is obviously very different from MSCI ACWI index which is roughly, 22% EU, 56% NA and CA and 21% EM and Asia and Japan. Does anyone have any idea of any index that follows a GDP approach? ...
by SimpleGift
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: BH recent Membership [BogleHead]
Replies: 17
Views: 1531

Re: BH recent Membership

Interesting chart. Thanks for posting it.

If my math is correct, new membership has been growing at about 17% per year since 2009 and the Financial Crisis — that's even better than the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested (at 15.5% nominal per year)! ;-)
by SimpleGift
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2485

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

However, in Expected Returns , Antti Ilmanen states that U.S. Treasuries could lose their flight to safety characteristics. This seems unlikely for the reason that, in a global crisis, "flight-to-safety" really becomes a "flight-to-liquidity." And there's just no other high-quality, sovereign debt ...
by SimpleGift
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment
Replies: 34
Views: 3282

Re: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment

But what you are seeing here is impact of Central Banks gobbling up government bonds BoJ and ECB are still net buyers. Yes, it appears they will continue to be net buyers for a few years to come. From a Financial Times article today: Bond buying by the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank is set...
by SimpleGift
Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment
Replies: 34
Views: 3282

Re: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment

How very strange. I must be missing something, because it still doesn't make sense to me. Why wouldn't they invest in Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Fund Admiral Shares (VFIUX) instead? I'm sure they do. I was just comparing yields on the shorter end of the yield curve, where rates are markedl...
by SimpleGift
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment
Replies: 34
Views: 3282

Re: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment

Wouldn't investors simply move toward investments with higher yields? Yes, this does appear to be happening to a degree. One interesting aspect is that foreign investors have even been piling into U.S. municipal bonds (chart below) — even though they can't take advantage of the tax benefits and are...
by SimpleGift
Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment
Replies: 34
Views: 3282

The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment

As extensively reported, there's been an interesting experiment going on in Europe and Japan in recent years, as central banks have pushed short-term nominal interest rates into negative territory in an attempt to stimulate economic growth. The table below shows a matrix of current nominal yields fo...
by SimpleGift
Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?
Replies: 22
Views: 2304

Re: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?

So what is going on with all this coverage of the bubble and its "eminent" dreadful result? (I have VBMFX Admiral.) No doubt interest rates are near historical lows and bond prices near historical highs. The fear is that sharply rising interest rates could cause bond prices to drop and bond funds t...
by SimpleGift
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?
Replies: 22
Views: 2212

Re: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?

I see the point, but there is another way to look at it. Just like costs in mutual funds matter, annual returns matter. If one could really get an additional 1% annual return with a certain bond type, over 16 years the 1% could compound to 17%. True, but only if an investor holds a 100% bond portfo...
by SimpleGift
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?
Replies: 16
Views: 1492

Re: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?

The reasoning is because if stocks crash, the flight to safety happens largely because foreign investors buy US Treasuries in those scenarios. However, with BitCoin, other countries having strong government bonds now, etc, it is being said that foreign investors may not flock to US Treasuries. Yes,...
by SimpleGift
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2485

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

The US treasury security market is the deepest and most liquid securities market in the world. When the global economy is in dire straits, liquidity matters alot. Looking at the relative size of the various government debt markets around the world (in dark blue, chart below), this seems fairly clea...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2485

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

What is the evidence that US treasuries are safer? Not sure this would be a productive discussion. One could check the price of sovereign credit default swaps to see how global investors rate the creditworthiness of various countries' government debt around the world — the U.S. vs. Germany vs. Japa...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 12, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we headed for a crash or...
Replies: 19
Views: 1828

Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

In a long bull market, it can be easy to forget that, historically, the U.S. market has had negative returns almost one-third of the time (chart below) — in fact, in 28 out of 89 years from 1927-2016, or 31% of years. And some of these market meltdowns have been gut-wrenching, as in 2008. https://s1...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2485

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

Perhaps I'm reading too quickly, but where do they show that US treasuries are safer than German bunds, or U.K. gilts, or Japanese government bonds? Interest rates on some of these have been lower than Treasury rates in the not too distant past. Just to point out that relative interest rates on gov...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 82
Views: 9667

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

Of those BHs who've been retired a while, I was wondering when you really started feeling comfortable about your finances in retirement. I've been pretty lucky to have retired during this extended bull market while also downsizing from a HCOL area. I'd say moving to a low cost-of-living area has do...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2485

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

We reached a couple of (not surprising) bond portfolio conclusions from the limited research in the OP: • International bonds are not really needed when safety is the paramount consideration in a fixed-income allocation. Yes, they may provide some diversification benefits to the overall portfolio, b...
by SimpleGift
Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2485

What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

In retirement now, we're committed to a 50% stock/50% bond portfolio for our remaining years (primarily for our heirs). But to reduce portfolio risk, we've been upgrading the credit quality of our bond portfolio, gradually shifting from corporates and muni bonds to more U.S. Treasuries. But in the p...
by SimpleGift
Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?
Replies: 22
Views: 2212

Re: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?

^^^ The questions you are struggling with are mostly unanswerable, in my view. Besides, history has shown that one's choice of a bond allocation won't make that much difference over the long term. For example, here are the past 15-year returns for various Vanguard intermediate-term bond funds (from ...
by SimpleGift
Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied
Replies: 16
Views: 1239

Re: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied

There's a lot to think about in this excellent paper (thanks, AlohaJoe) — but this is a key takeaway from my perspective: After investigating better ways to properly model investor expenses, we find that most investors at or near retirement are likely better served with less conservative, more balan...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2179

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

I gather from your comments that the item in your equation is the total purchase cost of stocks bought in the buyback. There is no netting which was the starting question. Here's the equation for net buyback yield again: • Net Buyback Yield = (Trailing 12 month stock repurchases - stock issuances) ...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2179

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

Todd, When companies do a buyback they are taking something of value from stockholders. It is not a gift of cash. The value of a stock may be difficult to calculate but it does have some tangible value. Avalpert, I believe, thinks the number in your equation is a net number. I don't think so. I bel...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2179

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

2) Do you have any data that might show effect that the amount of free float might have? I noted China has a higher dividend yield than the US, but much lower buyback yield. I would expect some of that to be explained by maturity of economy/markets, maybe tax law, etc. But might part of that be due...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2179

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

Perhaps the OP can explain exactly what the numerator is and whether it is the net value of stocks repurchased or just the purchase price of the stock. As posted upthread, this is how the two components of Total Payout Yield are usually calculated: • Net Buyback Yield = (Trailing 12 month stock rep...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2179

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

1) How would you expect they'd handle negative yields? For example, Company X issues stock to buy company Y in year 1. Company X has no repurchases in that year, so numerator would be negative. Year 3 rolls around, the combined companies are doing well & so they buyback same number of shares issued...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2179

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

I'll start with admitting that I didn't read the methodology of how "buyback yield" was calculated. I started to read, but didn't find easily. Among Damodaran's voluminous research and postings, I wasn't able to find a reference to how his global buyback yields were calculated either. But this is h...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2179

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

This brings to mind an identity, often cited by John Bogle, dictating that stock returns can be broken down into the following categories: Stock market return = Dividend yield + Dividend growth rate + Speculative return The way I think about dividends vs. stock buybacks is that shifting between the...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2179

Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

We've had previous Forum discussions on the increasing shift in the U.S. toward share buybacks at the expense of dividends as a means of returning cash to shareholders. But what about in international markets? This post reports on research by Aswath Damodaran, in which he compiles the Total Payout Y...
by SimpleGift
Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 1917

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

To quote Mark Twain, extrapolating the shortening of the Mississippi river, "any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see" that by 2046, emerging markets will constitute 100% of the total global stock market. Actually, according to Jeremy Siegel, emerging markets will only constitute 65% o...
by SimpleGift
Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 1917

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

MSCI provides a breakdown below of the evolution of their country classifications between 1987 and 2012. It appears their Emerging Markets Index had only 10 countries from 1987-1992, dominated by Malaysia and Brazil.
by SimpleGift
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 1917

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

^^^ The obvious problem with comparing the historical records of various emerging markets funds, as the OP is trying to do, is that without a standard definition of what an emerging market is, the country classification varies widely between funds. Even comparing the historical record of the MSCI Em...
by SimpleGift
Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?
Replies: 22
Views: 2212

Re: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?

Todd, your chart is very illuminating. Would you be able to add Wellesley Income as a fourth fund on the chart over that same time period? Sure. Vanguard's Wellesley Income Fund (VWINX) is shown in yellow below. https://s1.postimg.org/1laj3wzv8f/Untitled.jpg Source: Morningstar It looks like Welles...
by SimpleGift
Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 1917

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

I have evidence that 1987 to 1994 did NOT have such high returns. A quick Google search provided the following data series for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Annual returns for the 7-year period from 1988 through 1994 averaged 33.4% per year. https://s1.postimg.org/481rrfqrdr/1988_-_2013_MSCI_Eme...
by SimpleGift
Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?
Replies: 98
Views: 7718

Re: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?

I think having two or three funds instead of five or seven or however many is unlikely to be helpful in the event of severe cognitive decline. If you can manage three funds, you can manage five. If you can't manage five, you probably can't manage three. Maybe one fund would be okay, but more likely...
by SimpleGift
Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?
Replies: 22
Views: 2212

Re: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?

SimpleGift, do you have any good references to the historical performance of Treasuries and corporate debt during market meltdowns? One of the best ways to get a feel for the behavior of various bond funds during stock market stress is to play around with the total return charts at the Morningstar ...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 05, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Shiller's Portfolio is Tilted Toward Europe and Emerging Markets
Replies: 19
Views: 2408

Re: Dr. Shiller's Portfolio is Tilted Toward Europe and Emerging Markets

Thank you, SimpleGift. I agree and will try to resist the temptation when opportunities like crude price falling to $30/barrel happen again. At extremes of valuation, it is possible to get lucky now and again with tactical asset allocation. However, the problem comes when an investor confuses this ...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?
Replies: 22
Views: 2212

Re: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?

Any thoughts on what the most appropriate allocation between government bonds and credit bonds is, looking at it from both a domestic and international perspective? Assuming you are comfortable with your stock/bond split (a first order decision), the choice of bond allocation is much less consequen...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Shiller's Portfolio is Tilted Toward Europe and Emerging Markets
Replies: 19
Views: 2408

Re: Dr. Shiller's Portfolio is Tlited Toward Europe and Emerging Markets

The article states: "Shiller tells me he's still got money in the U.S. markets, though he has been tilting toward Europe and emerging markets, in part, because they look cheaper." Is this an indication that even Nobel Laureates in Economics try to time the market? I have done some versions of this ...
by SimpleGift
Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leading indicators [published] from the FED
Replies: 17
Views: 1100

Re: Leading indicators [published] from the FED

I would agree with nisprius that the current picture looks OK for that leading indicator chart. Ditto for the yield curve. It would be worrisome if the yield curve chart I showed above hit zero. Even then, one might be quite early in lightening up on equities when it hits zero. Comparing the Yield ...
by SimpleGift
Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leading indicators [published] from the FED
Replies: 17
Views: 1100

Re: Leading indicators [published] from the FED

Too much information is worse then too little information. I think that applies here. Unless there is data that has been analyzed and shown to have high correlation (>0.7) to predicting stock market changes then I don't know why anyone would care about its use when it comes to investing. Since the ...
by SimpleGift
Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of World Stock Market Bubbles, 1900-2014
Replies: 38
Views: 3398

Re: History of World Stock Market Bubbles, 1900-2014

If you think about it for a second, the conclusion being reached is pretty obvious... After thinking about it for a day, I believe you're right. Because GDP and corporate earnings generally grow over the long term (chart below), it makes sense that market bubbles and irrational exuberance will more...